Standard Error Range Research Articles

Comparison of four approaches in eliciting health state utilities with SF-6Dv2.

To empirically compare four preference elicitation approaches, the discrete choice experiment with time (DCETTO), the Best-Worst Scaling with time (BWSTTO), DCETTO with BWSTTO (DCEBWS), and the Standard Gamble (SG) method, in valuing health states using the SF-6Dv2. A representative sample of the general population in Quebec, Canada, completed 6 SG tasks or 13 DCEBWS (i.e., 10 DCETTO followed by 3 BWSTTO). Choice tasks were designed with the SF-6Dv2. Several models were used to estimate SG data, and the conditional logit model was used for the DCE or BWS data. The performance of SG models was assessed using prediction accuracy (mean absolute error [MAE]), goodness of fit using Bayesian information criterion (BIC),t-test, Jarque-Bera (JB) test, Ljung-Box (LB) test, the logical consistency of the parameters, and significance levels. Comparison between approaches was conducted using acceptability (self-reported difficulty and quality levels in answering, and completion time), consistency (monotonicity of model coefficients), accuracy (standard errors), dimensions coefficient magnitude, correlation between the value sets estimated, and the range of estimated values. The variance scale factor was computed to assess individuals' consistency in their choices for DCE and BWS approaches. Out of 828 people who completed SG and 1208 for DCEBWS tasks, a total of 724 participants for SG and 1153 for DCE tasks were included for analysis. Although no significant difference was observed in self-reported difficulties and qualities in answers among approaches, the SG had the longest completion time and excluded participants in SG were more prone to report difficulties in answering. The range of standard errors of the SG was the narrowest (0.012 to 0.015), followed by BWSTTO (0.023 to 0.035), DCEBWS (0.028 to 0.050), and DCETTO (0.028 to 0.052). The highest number of insignificant and illogical parameters was for BWSTTO. Pain dimension was the most important across dimensions in all approaches. The correlation between SG and DCEBWS utility values was the strongest (0.928), followed by the SG and BWSTTO values (0.889), and the SG and DCETTO (0.849). The range of utility values generated by SG tended to be shorter (-0.143 to 1) than those generated by the other three methods, whereas BWSTTO (-0.505 to 1) range values were shorter than DCETTO (-1.063 to 1) and DCEBWS (-0.637 to 1). The variance scale factor suggests that respondents had almost similar level of certainty or confidence in both DCE and BWS responses. The SG had the narrowest value set, the lowest completion rates, the longest completion time, the best prediction accuracy, and produced an unexpected sign for one level. The BWSTTO had a narrower value set, lower completion time, higher parameter inconsistency, and higher insignificant levels compared to DCETTO and DCEBWS. The results of DCEBWS were more similar to SG in number of insignificant and illogical parameters, and correlation.

Analysis of Mass Transfer and Shrinkage Characteristics of Chinese Cabbage (Brassica rapa L. ssp. pekinensis) Leaves during Osmotic Dehydration.

The mass transfer and shrinkage characteristics of Chinese cabbage (CC) during osmotic dehydration (OD) were investigated. The leaves were grouped into four sections and analyzed based on their morphological characteristics (i.e., maturity, width, and thickness). The sections were immersed in 2.0 mol/m3 NaCl for 120 h at 25 ± 2 °C. The diffusion coefficient (D) of the leaf blade was not significantly different with respect to the sections that were formed, but it was significantly different in the midrib in the increasing order of P1, P4, P3, and P2, with values of 1.12, 1.61, 1.84, and 2.06 (× 10-6), respectively, after a 1 h soaking period due to the different characteristics in morphology and structure, such as porosity (0.31, 0.41, 0.42, and 0.38 for positions 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively) and fiber contents. Numerical simulation (NS) for CC was conducted with and without the consideration of shrinkage during OD. The shrinkage effect on the NaCl uptake analyzed using NS indicated no significant difference between 0 to 48 h for both models. However, changes in the NaCl concentration were observed from 48 h onwards, with a lesser concentration in the model with shrinkage for all sections. The difference in NaCl concentration for the models with and without shrinkage was within the standard error range (±0.2 mol/m3) observed during experimental analysis. This implies that the shrinkage effect can be overlooked during the modeling of CC to reduce computational power.

Modeling Longitudinal Outcomes in a Small Matched-Pair Sample Motivated by Cardiovascular Data: A Simulation Study

Introduction: In cardiovascular research, matched pairs with longitudinal outcomes are used to assess time and treatment effects on relevant cardiovascular parameters of interest. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) with independent working correlation are commonly employed for unbiased estimation, but their consistency depends on large sample properties. This study investigates the validity of independent GEE for small sample matched pair data under various working correlations, comparing the results with quasi-least squares (QLS) estimates through simulation. Methods: We simulate a hospital cohort with longitudinal outcomes for two exposure groups and individual random effects. After obtaining the propensity score-matched sample, we performed different simulation scenarios across various mortality rates and the random effect. We compare results from GEE and QLS methods under independence, exchangeable, and AR1 working correlation structures. Results: The independence structure often yields a wider range of relative biases and higher standard errors when there is considerable drop-out. Conversely, the exchangeable structure appears as the true correlation structure, providing more accurate and reliable estimates. No significant discrepancies are observed between the results generated by GEE and QLS methods in this study, and the performance of both approaches is significantly influenced by mortality rates and the standard deviation of the random intercept. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that GEE with an independent working correlation structure is misspecified due to incorrect correlation assumptions and is less efficient. Therefore, correctly specifying the working correlation structure is important for small sample data.

Evaluating the applicability of the water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model to runoff and soil loss of sandstone reliefs in the Loess Plateau, China

Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental issues, especially in vulnerable areas such as the Pisha sandstone regions located in the Loess Plateau (China). In these types of reliefs, long-term studies monitoring runoff and soil loss are scarce, and even more considering the efficiency of different soil management techniques applied to reduce land degradation. In this study, seven years (2014–2020) of in-situ measurements of surface runoff and soil loss for different land uses (forestland, shrubland, grassland, farmland, and bare land) in a Pisha Sandstone environment at the Loess Plateau were conducted. We applied the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model combining the large database with the precipitation regimes. Our results showed that runoff volume coming from observed and simulated data exhibited significant differences among them depending on the different vegetation types. Runoff and soil loss were different among diverse land use types as follows: farmland > grassland > shrubland > forestland. After conducting a calibration, we found satisfactorily simulated surface runoff and sediment yield based on precipitation regimes and land uses at sandstone reliefs. Simulation performance of surface runoff was better than sediment yield. The range of standard error of the model simulation for event and annual values of runoff were 4.71 mm and 12.19 mm, respectively. The standard error for event and annual values of soil loss were 4.19 t/hm2 and 21.86 t/hm2. In the calibration group, R2 of runoff and soil loss were 0.92 and 0.86 respectively, while Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E) reached 0.90 and 0.85, respectively. In the validation group, the R2 for both runoff and soil loss were 0.82 and 0.56, respectively. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E) were 0.77 and 0.54 for the runoff and sediment yield. We concluded that using a detailed monitoring dataset, the WEPP model could accurately simulate and predict water erosion in the hillslopes of Pisha sandstone area.

Can a linking crosswalk table be applied to a different population? An independent validation study for a crosswalk between BSI depression and PROMIS depression scales.

A linking procedure establishes a "bridge" between the scores from different patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments that measure similar constructs. After developing a linking relationship however, it is critical to evaluate whether this relationship can be generalized to different groups. Our study aims to validate a published crosswalk for score conversion between the Brief Symptom Inventory Depression subscale and the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Depression 8a using an independent sample. Data were from a sample of young men who have sex with men (MSM), which differs in terms of participant age, race, and ethnicity from the sample used to develop the existing crosswalk. The validity of the newly derived crosswalk was evaluated in terms of the correlation, mean difference and standard deviation between the observed and the linked scores. The two crosswalks were further compared to evaluate if the difference was within an acceptable range. More than half of the item parameters obtained from the two samples were found to overlap in their confidence intervals. Differences between each pair of scores in the two crosswalks was within three T-score points, well within the range of each crosswalk score's standard error. This study concludes that an existing crosswalk is replicable on a sample that differs from that used for crosswalk development, but future research should continue to examine the generalizability of the linked parameters and evaluate the reproducibility of this crosswalk to other populations.

P17. Biomechanical effects of changes in cervical alignment following single-level ACDF using 3D motion capture

<h3>BACKGROUND CONTEXT</h3> Alignment of the cervical spine likely has significant effects on the clinical longevity of the subaxial motion segments. The biomechanical effects of changes in alignment on the cervical spine remain to be understood. Single-level ACDF is a commonly performed procedure and cervical alignment may influence motion transfer to adjacent and noncontiguous subaxial motion segments. <h3>PURPOSE</h3> The purpose of this study is to better understand the role of alignment on unfused cervical motion segments, the present study was designed to evaluate the biomechanical effects on the subaxial cervical spine (C2 to T1) of 1) changes in T1 tilt 2) single-level ACDF and 3) combined effects of ACDF and changes in T1 tilt. <h3>STUDY DESIGN/SETTING</h3> Cadaveric study. <h3>PATIENT SAMPLE</h3> Six cadaveric cervical spines (C2-T1). <h3>OUTCOME MEASURES</h3> Biomechanical metrics. <h3>METHODS</h3> Six cadaveric cervical spines (C2-T1) were screened fluoroscopically and placed with retro-reflective markers. Computed tomography (CT) scans with sagittal/coronal reformats were performed and degeneration was graded. Specimens were tested to 30° flexion and 30° extension in the intact state and following single-level ACDF(C5-C6). Motions of each vertebral body were tracked using a 3D-motion capture system and input into an inverse kinematics model to correlate the 3D reconstruction and motion capture data. A customized testing apparatus was developed to alter the T1 slope in human cervical cadaveric spines to neutral, +15°, and -15°. Generalized estimating equation modeling was used to analyze the main effects as well as the interaction effects of fusion, while we also controlled for the clustered nature of the data. Parameter estimates of the model are reported as mean change in range of motion and standard error, with statistical significance defined as p-value = .05. SAS software was used for all statistical analyses. <h3>RESULTS</h3> In the intact specimen, increase in T1 tilt (0° to +15°) did not result in increased ROM at any motion segment (C2-3, C3-4, C4-C5, C5-6, C6-C7, C7-T1: p=NS). In the intact specimen, decrease in T1 tilt (0° to -15°) resulted in significantly increased ROM at C2-C3 (p < .0001), C3-C4 (p < .0001), C5-C6 (p < .01), C6-C7 (p <.005) and C7-T1 (p < .02), but not at C4-C5 (p=NS). The effects of ACDF on the unfused segments at various cervical alignments was: neutral T1 tilt, ACDF did not result in significantly increased ROM at any level (C2-3, C3-C4, C4-C5, C6-C7, C7-T1: p=NS). At increased T1 Tilt (+15°), motion was significantly increased at C2-C3 (p <.05); however, not at any other segment (p=NS). At decreased T1 tilt (-15°), there was a trend toward increased motion at C7-T1 (p=.06) and no significant increase in motion at any other level (p=NS). The GEE model did not show significant cumulative effects for the interaction of tilt and fusion on range of motion (p=NS). <h3>CONCLUSIONS</h3> Changes in cervical alignment have a biomechanical influence on the observed patterns of motion in both the intact state and following ACDF. In the unfused specimen, increased T1 tilt resulted in no significant hypermobility whereas decreased T1 tilt resulted in significantly increased hypermobility at five motion segments. Following ACDF, hypermobility was transferred to non-contiguous segments, cranially when T1 tilt was increased and trended caudally when T1 tilt was decreased. <h3>FDA DEVICE/DRUG STATUS</h3> This abstract does not discuss or include any applicable devices or drugs.

Reliability of Cobb’s Angle in a Measurement of Kyphosis – A Meta–Analysis

This study aimed at analyzing the literature systematically on the reliability of Cobb’s angle in measurement of kyphosis. Cobb’s angle is the most widely used measurement to quantify spinal deformity. Kyphosis is the spinal disorder in which an excessive outwards of the spine results in an abnormal rounding of the upper back. Cobb’s angle used as standard measurement to determine and trackthe progression of scoliosis andkyphosis. Hence the purpose of the meta-analysis is to analyze the reliability of Cobb’s angle in a measurement of kyphosis Systematic searches in PubMed, Science direct, Google scholar, Cochrane library, Research Gate for systematic review was done. Research article and review article were selected within the published 1999 – 2020. The study design is Meta-analysis study of Analytical type. Study quality was done by PEDro Scale The study duration is about 4 months. A Meta-analysis was conducted by using Medical software to obtain a summary estimate of the standardized mean difference and 95% confidence limit. 100 articles taken for review in which finally 35 articles were summarized. Almost all the study shows that there was a highly significant difference on measurement of kyphosis using COBB’S angle. Outcome of measurement has excellent reliability with the small range of standard error of measurement. Cobb’s measurement had excellent reliability when used to measure kyphosis. The findings confirm the significance and the ease of using this method.

Performance, biochemical and physiological parameters of Dorper × Santa Ines lambs fed with three levels of metabolizable energy.

This study aimed to evaluate the performance and the blood biochemical and physiological parameters of Dorper × Santa Ines lambs receiving three levels of metabolizable energy (ME). A completely randomized design with three treatments (ME levels) and eight replicates (lambs) was used. Twenty-four non-castrated male lambs of four months of age and 21.07 ± 3.91kg body weight (BW) received a diet composed of 40% Tifton 85 hay and 60% concentrate feed, on a dry matter basis. The amount of feed supplied was adjusted to meet 115, 201, and 288kcal ME per kg of metabolic weight (MW = BW0.75) daily. Average daily gain and the intake of dry matter (g/day and % BW0.75/day), nutrients, and energy increased linearly (P < 0.001) with ME level. The dry matter intake relative to BW (% BW/day) and feed conversion ratio showed quadratic responses (P < 0.05) to ME level. Serum creatinine decreased linearly (P = 0.038), whereas plasma glucose increased linearly (P = 0.045) with ME level. Serum urea presented a high variation (standard error range = ±1.98-6.07 mg/dL) in response to 288kcal/kg0.75/day of ME supply, and did not stabilize during the trial. Respiratory rate increased linearly (P < 0.001) with ME level at each time of day (morning/afternoon), but with higher intensity in the afternoon. Heart rate and rectal temperature increased linearly (P < 0.001) with ME level. Given that the range of ME level simulated a restricted-to-ad libitum ME intake, the best response in terms of feed efficiency can be obtained with 252kcal/kg0.75/day of ME supply, which probably reflects the best balance of metabolic and physiological parameters. Thus, in order to achieve high productive performance in tropical environments, feedlot lambs should be fed with high-concentrate diets.

Contribution of the world's main dust source regions to the global cycle of desert dust

Abstract. Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, the relative contributions of the world's major source regions to the global dust cycle remain poorly constrained. This problem hinders accounting for the potentially large impact of regional differences in dust properties on clouds, the Earth's energy balance, and terrestrial and marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we constrain the contribution of each of the world's main dust source regions to the global dust cycle. We use an analytical framework that integrates an ensemble of global aerosol model simulations with observationally informed constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD). We obtain a dataset that constrains the relative contribution of nine major source regions to size-resolved dust emission, atmospheric loading, DAOD, concentration, and deposition flux. We find that the 22–29 Tg (1 standard error range) global loading of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm is partitioned as follows: North African source regions contribute ∼ 50 % (11–15 Tg), Asian source regions contribute ∼ 40 % (8–13 Tg), and North American and Southern Hemisphere regions contribute ∼ 10 % (1.8–3.2 Tg). These results suggest that current models on average overestimate the contribution of North African sources to atmospheric dust loading at ∼ 65 %, while underestimating the contribution of Asian dust at ∼ 30 %. Our results further show that each source region's dust loading peaks in local spring and summer, which is partially driven by increased dust lifetime in those seasons. We also quantify the dust deposition flux to the Amazon rainforest to be ∼ 10 Tg yr−1, which is a factor of 2–3 less than inferred from satellite data by previous work that likely overestimated dust deposition by underestimating the dust mass extinction efficiency. The data obtained in this paper can be used to obtain improved constraints on dust impacts on clouds, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and other parts of the Earth system.

Lake Inflow Simulation Using the Coupled Water Balance Method and Xin’anjiang Model in an Ungauged Stream of Chaohu Lake Basin, China

Water resources are crucial for maintaining daily life and a healthy ecological environment. In order to gain a harmonious development among water resources and economic development in Lake Watershed, it is urgent to quantify the lake inflow. However, the calculation of inflow simulations is severely limited by the lack of information regarding river runoff. This paper attempts calculated inflow in an ungauged stream through use of the coupling water balance method and the Xin’anjiang model, applying it to calculate the inflow in the Chaohu Lake Basin, China. Results show that the coupled model has been proved to be robust in determining inflow in an ungauged stream. The error of daily inflow calculated by the water balance method is between 1.4 and −19.5%, which is within the standard error range (±20%). The calibration and verification results of the coupled model suggest that the simulation results are best in the high inflow year (2016), followed by the normal inflow year (2007) and the low inflow year (1978). The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies for high inflow year, normal inflow year, and low inflow year are 0.82, 0.72, and 0.63, respectively, all of which have reached a satisfactory level. Further, the annual lake inflow simulation in the normal inflow year is 19.4 × 108 m3, while the annual average land surface runoff of the study area is 18.9 × 108 m3, and the relative error is −2.6% by the two ways. These results of the coupled model offer a new way to calculate the inflow in lake/reservoir basins.

Dimensional Accuracy of 3D-printed Models of the Right First Metacarpal Bones of Cadavers

Background. The use of 3D printing in medical education, prosthetics, and preoperative planning requiresdimensional accuracy of the models compared to the replicated tissues or organs.Objective. To determine the dimensional accuracy of 3D-printed models replicated from metacarpal bones fromcadavers.&#x0D; Methods. Fifty-two models were 3D-printed using fused deposition modeling (FDM), stereolithography (SLA),digital light processing (DLP), and binder jetting method from 13 right first metacarpal bones of cadavers fromthe College of Medicine, University of the Philippines Manila. Six dimensional parameters of the 3D-printedmodels and their control bones were measured using 0.01 mm calipers — length, midshaft diameter, base width,base height, head width, and head height. Mean measurements were compared using non-inferiority testing andmultidimensional scaling.&#x0D; Results. Mean measurements of the 3D-printed models were slightly larger than their control bones (standarddeviation range: 1.219-4.264; standard error range, 0.338-1.183). All models were found to be at least 90% accurateand statistically non-inferior compared to control bones. DLP-printed models were the most accurate (base width,99.62 %) and most similar to their control bone (–0.05, 90% CI –0.34, 0.24). Through multidimensional scaling,DLP-printed models (coordinate = 0.437) were the most similar to the control bone (coordinate = 0.899).&#x0D; Conclusion. The 3D-printed models are dimensionally accurate when compared to bones.

Simulation of Storage Conditions of Mixed Biomass Pellets for Bioenergy Generation: Study of the Thermodynamic Properties

Experimental and mathematical modeling of the moisture sorption isotherms for biomass pellets during storage is performed in this study. The tested pellets are a mixture of 50% wood: spruce or pine, and 50% switchgrass agricultural biomass. Storage conditions, i.e., temperature and humidity, are tested by varying the environment conditions in a conditioning chamber. The experimental results show that the moisture sorption isotherms are not affected by the temperature. Nevertheless, the equilibrium moisture content depends on the kind of the tested pellets. Mathematical modeling of the experimental isotherms is performed using four common models: the Oswin, GAB, Henderson and Peleg models. The Oswin model is defined as the most appropriate model to predict the moisture sorption isotherms of the spruce–switchgrass pellets. It presents a coefficient of determination equal to 0.998, a standard error around 0.049 and a chi-square approaching 0.007. On the other hand, Henderson and GAB models show the best results for pine–switchgrass pellets, with a coefficient of determination varying between 0.998 and 0.997, a standard error range 0.054–0.065 and chi-square error between 0.008 and 0.009. The thermodynamic properties, which include the net isosteric of heat and the entropy changes of sorption, are also determined for all tested samples.

Comparison of non-exercise cardiorespiratory fitness prediction equations in apparently healthy adults.

A recent scientific statement suggests clinicians should routinely assess cardiorespiratory fitness using at least non-exercise prediction equations. However, no study has comprehensively compared the many non-exercise cardiorespiratory fitness prediction equations to directly-measured cardiorespiratory fitness using data from a single cohort. Our purpose was to compare the accuracy of non-exercise prediction equations to directly-measured cardiorespiratory fitness and evaluate their ability to classify an individual's cardiorespiratory fitness. The sample included 2529 tests from apparently healthy adults (42% female, aged 45.4 ± 13.1 years (mean±standard deviation). Estimated cardiorespiratory fitness from 28 distinct non-exercise prediction equations was compared with directly-measured cardiorespiratory fitness, determined from a cardiopulmonary exercise test. Analysis included the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure to compare estimated cardiorespiratory fitness with directly-measured cardiorespiratory fitness, Pearson product moment correlations, standard error of estimate values, and the percentage of participants correctly placed into three fitness categories. All of the estimated cardiorespiratory fitness values from the equations were correlated to directly measured cardiorespiratory fitness (p < 0.001) although the R2 values ranged from 0.25-0.70 and the estimated cardiorespiratory fitness values from 27 out of 28 equations were statistically different compared with directly-measured cardiorespiratory fitness. The range of standard error of estimate values was 4.1-6.2 ml·kg-1·min-1. On average, only 52% of participants were correctly classified into the three fitness categories when using estimated cardiorespiratory fitness. Differences exist between non-exercise prediction equations, which influences the accuracy of estimated cardiorespiratory fitness. The present analysis can assist researchers and clinicians with choosing a non-exercise prediction equation appropriate for epidemiological or population research. However, the error and misclassification associated with estimated cardiorespiratory fitness suggests future research is needed on the clinical utility of estimated cardiorespiratory fitness.

Using tibial fragments to reconstruct the total skeletal height of black South Africans

Stature is an important component of the biological profile of unknown skeletal remains and regression equations for estimating stature have been derived for a number of bones. However, bones are rarely recovered intact in both forensic and archaeological cases, and regression formulae for fragmentary remains have therefore been developed. These equations are, however, both sex- and population-specific, and while formulae exist for many populations, those using fragmentary tibiae do not exist for black South Africans. The aim of this study was therefore to establish regression equations for estimating total skeletal height (TSH), and thereby stature, from tibial fragments in a black South African population. A sample of 99 male and 99 female black South African skeletons were obtained from the Raymond A. Dart Collection of Human Skeletons and the TSH of each skeleton was calculated using the anatomical method. Eleven additional measurements representing tibial fragments were taken on each tibia, and both uni- and multivariate equations were established for estimating TSH from these fragments. All tibial variables were significantly, positively correlated with TSH, and equation correlations ranged between 0.41 and 0.91. The range of standard errors of estimate for the derived sex-specific (3.43–5.06 cm) and sex-pooled (3.44–5.94 cm) multivariate equations were slightly larger than those reported for intact tibiae in black (2.78–3.06 cm) and white (2.59–3.16 cm) South Africans. All uni- and multivariate-equations estimated TSH with moderate to high accuracy, which indicates that in the absence of intact tibiae, the equations presented in this study can be used to give accurate estimates of TSH, and thereby stature, for black South Africans.

Research on Combined Model Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Application in Wind Speed Forecast

Wind power is an important part of a power system, and its use has been rapidly increasing as compared with fossil energy. However, due to the intermittence and randomness of wind speed, system operators and researchers urgently need to find more reliable wind-speed prediction methods. It was found that the time series of wind speed not only has linear characteristics, but also nonlinear. In addition, most methods only consider one criterion or rule (stability or accuracy), or one objective function, which can lead to poor forecasting results. So, wind-speed forecasting is still a difficult and challenging problem. The existing forecasting models based on combination-model theory can adapt to some time-series data and overcome the shortcomings of the single model, which achieves poor accuracy and instability. In this paper, a combined forecasting model based on data preprocessing, a nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-III) with three objective functions and four models (two hybrid nonlinear models and two linear models) is proposed and was successfully applied to forecasting wind speed, which not only overcomes the issue of forecasting accuracy, but also solves the difficulties of forecasting stability. The experimental results show that the stability and accuracy of the proposed combined model are better than the single models, improving the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) range from 0.007% to 2.31%, and the standard deviation mean absolute percentage error (STDMAPE) range from 0.0044 to 0.3497.

Current level and rate of warming determine emissions budgets under ambitious mitigation

Some of the differences between recent estimates of the remaining budget of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C arise from different estimates of the level of warming to date relative to pre-industrial conditions, but not all. Here we show that, for simple geometrical reasons, the combination of both the level and rate of human-induced warming provides a remarkably accurate prediction of remaining emission budgets to peak warming across a broad range of scenarios, if budgets are expressed in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent emissions. These in turn predict CO2 emissions budgets if (but only if) the fractional contribution of non-CO2 drivers to warming remains approximately unchanged, as it does in some ambitious mitigation scenarios, indicating a best-estimate remaining budget for 1.5 °C of about 22 years’ current emissions from mid-2017, with a ‘likely’ (1 standard error) range of 13–32 years. This provides a simple, transparent and model-independent metric of progress towards an ambitious temperature stabilization goal that could be used to inform the Paris Agreement stocktake process. It is less applicable to less ambitious goals. Alternative definitions of current warming and scenarios for non-CO2 drivers give lower 1.5 °C budgets. Lower budgets based on the MAGICC simple modelling system widely used in integrated assessment studies reflect its relatively high simulated current warming rates. A combination of the level and rate of human-induced warming allows estimation of remaining emission budgets to peak warming across a broad range of scenarios, suggests an analysis of emissions budgets expressed in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent emissions.

Using Infrared Spectroscopy for Tracking and Estimating Antioxidant in Tomato Fruit Fractions

Infrared technology has brought a quantum leap in the specialization of non-destructive systems for internal quality inspection of agricultural and food products. Applying near-infrared spectroscopy technique (NIRs) for tracking and estimating some antioxidants such as (Lycopene, ?-carotene, Phytoene and Phytofluenxe) in tomato fruit fractions (Exocarp, Mesocarp, Endocarp and Tomato pomace) with prediction model. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) device showed the antioxidant concentrations values within tomato fractions. Where, the maximum and minimum values observed in the mesocarp and exocarp fractions. Also, tomato fractions color analysis confirmed these results. Meanwhile, mesocarp fraction within range dark red color with h°? 31.7°, due to increased lycopene concentration, whereas, exocarp fraction was 77.29° for h°, within yellow range. In addition to HPLC and color reference methods were consensus significantly with the different of spectral transformations by the regression of partial least square (PLS). NIR spectra and antioxidant in tomato fractions were taken to establish calibration models for tracking and estimating antioxidant in tomato fractions by using partial least squares (PLS) model. The obtained Coefficients of prediction model (R2p) were 0.95, 0.91, 0.93 and 0.94 for Lycopene, ?-Carotene, Phytoene and Phytofluenxe respectively. The values of (RPD) ratio obtained from the standard deviation to the standard error of prediction and also (RER) obtained from the standard error range of prediction model were varied for different tomato fractions and antioxidant content, and found that the NIR model suitable not only for screening the different concentrations values of antioxidants for tomato fractions, but also suitable for most applications including quality assurance.

Using Infrared Spectroscopy for Tracking and Estimating Antioxidant in Tomato Fruit Fractions

Infrared technology has brought a quantum leap in the specialization of non-destructive systems for internal quality inspection of agricultural and food products. Applying near-infrared spectroscopy technique (NIRs) for tracking and estimating some antioxidants such as (Lycopene, β-carotene, Phytoene and Phytofluenxe) in tomato fruit fractions (Exocarp, Mesocarp, Endocarp and Tomato pomace) with prediction model. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) device showed the antioxidant concentrations values within tomato fractions. Where, the maximum and minimum values observed in the mesocarp and exocarp fractions. Also, tomato fractions color analysis confirmed these results. Meanwhile, mesocarp fraction within range dark red color with h°≈ 31.7°, due to increased lycopene concentration, whereas, exocarp fraction was 77.29° for h°, within yellow range. In addition to HPLC and color reference methods were consensus significantly with the different of spectral transformations by the regression of partial least square (PLS). NIR spectra and antioxidant in tomato fractions were taken to establish calibration models for tracking and estimating antioxidant in tomato fractions by using partial least squares (PLS) model. The obtained Coefficients of prediction model (R2p) were 0.95, 0.91, 0.93 and 0.94 for Lycopene, β-Carotene, Phytoene and Phytofluenxe respectively. The values of (RPD) ratio obtained from the standard deviation to the standard error of prediction and also (RER) obtained from the standard error range of prediction model were varied for different tomato fractions and antioxidant content, and found that the NIR model suitable not only for screening the different concentrations values of antioxidants for tomato fractions, but also suitable for most applications including quality assurance.

Unbiased Molecular Dynamics of 11 min Timescale Drug Unbinding Reveals Transition State Stabilizing Interactions.

Ligand (un)binding kinetics is being recognized as a determinant of drug specificity and efficacy in an increasing number of systems. However, the calculation of kinetics and the simulation of drug unbinding is more difficult than computing thermodynamic quantities, such as binding free energies. Here we present the first full simulations of an unbinding process at pharmacologically relevant time scales (11 min), without the use of biasing forces, detailed prior knowledge, or specialized processors using the weighted ensemble based algorithm, WExplore. These simulations show the inhibitor TPPU unbinding from its enzyme target soluble epoxide hydrolase, which is a clinically relevant target that has attracted interest in kinetics optimization in order to increase efficacy. We make use of conformation space networks that allow us to conceptualize unbinding not just as a linear process, but as a network of interconnected states that connect the bound and unbound states. This allows us to visualize patterns in hydrogen-bonding, solvation, and nonequilibrium free energies, without projection onto progress coordinates. The topology and layout of the network reveal multiple unbinding pathways, and other rare events, such as the reversal of ligand orientation within the binding site. Furthermore, we make a prediction of the transition state ensemble, using transition path theory, and identify protein-ligand interactions which are stabilizing to the transition state. Additionally, we uncover trends in ligand and binding site solvation that corroborate experimental evidence from more classical structure kinetics relationships and generate new questions as to the role of drug modifications in kinetics optimization. Finally, from only 6 μs of simulation time we observed 75 unbinding events from which we calculate a residence time of 42 s, and a standard error range of 23 to 280 s. This nearly encompasses the experimental residence time 11 min (660 s). In addition to the insights to sEH inhibitor unbinding, this study shows that simulations of complex processes on timescales as long as minutes are becoming feasible for more researchers to perform.

Utility of Pulse Oximetry to Detect Aspiration: An Evidence-Based Systematic Review.

Pulse oximetry is a commonly used means to measure peripheral capillary oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2). Potential use of pulse oximetry to detect aspiration is attractive to clinicians, as it is readily available, quick, and noninvasive. However, research regarding validity has been mixed. This systematic review examining evidence on the use of pulse oximetry to detect a decrease in SpO2 indicating aspiration during swallowing is undertaken to further inform clinical practice in dysphagia assessment. A multi-engine electronic search was conducted on 8/25/16 and updated on 4/8/17 in accordance with standards published by the Preferred Reporting for Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA). Inclusion criteria included use of pulse oximetry to detect aspiration with simultaneous confirmation of aspiration via a gold standard instrumental study. Keywords included dysphagia or aspiration AND pulse oximetry. Articles meeting criteria were reviewed by two blinded co-investigators. The search yielded 294 articles, from which 19 were judged pertinent and reviewed in full. Ten met the inclusion criteria and all were rated at Level III-2 on the Australian Diagnostic Levels of Evidence. Study findings were mixed with sensitivity ranging from 10 to 87%. Potentially confounding variables were observed in all studies reviewed, and commonly involved defining "desaturation" within a standard measurement error range (~2%), mixed populations, mixed viscosities/textures observed during swallowing, and lack of comparison group. The majority of studies failed to demonstrate an association between observed aspiration and oxygen desaturation. Current evidence does not support the use of pulse oximetry to detect aspiration.