Range Of Possible Events Research Articles

Resilience

Resilience

Design considerations for relativistic laser sails*

Physics based methods have been developed to obtain accurate design estimates for the performance of relativistic interstellar laser sails and to identify technologies to mitigate losses inherent in the physics. The physical principles that are applied include those of the Special Relativity and Quantum Mechanics. Special Relativity is especially difficult to apply consistently. A method is summarized which makes the application of the Special Relativity straightforward, reducing the possibility of errors generated by neglecting important effects and by reducing mathematical difficulties. Once launched, the spacecraft design must remain fixed, and this dictates a design for the sail that must be able to respond to a broad range of possible events. Although physics-based losses cannot be eliminated, or even reduced, technologies can be applied at the source to help reduce their effect at the sail. These losses include: 1) the decrease in frequency, and hence energy, due to Doppler effects and 2) decreases in the intensity due to delays in the arrival of the photons. Including relativistic effects amplifies these losses at the velocities necessary for interstellar flight. When the sail reaches one fifth of the speed of light the losses become significant. Some losses can be mitigated while others cannot. For example, free electron lasers can be used to keep the frequency (and hence the energy of the photons) constant at the sail and a phased array can be expanded in area to narrow the beam width. Both can be used keep the momentum transferred constant at the sail. A phased array will also allow the beam direction to be controlled. Mathematical models and results will be presented for Doppler and intensity losses, beam width and direction control. A straightforward method to include effects of relativity has been applied to aid in performance estimates for relativistic interstellar laser sails. Although losses based on the physics remain the same their effects at the sail can be reduced significantly. Phased arrays will help with direction control, beam spreading, and intensity adjustments while free electron lasers can help mitigate Doppler effects. Sail structural dynamics, an important consideration not previously discussed, is introduced and methods to lessen the effects are discussed.

The study of frictional damper with various control algorithms

Frictional dampers are used in structural engineering as means of passive control. Meanwhile, frictional damper shave a disadvantage compared to viscous rivals since the slippage force must be exceeded to activate the device, and cannot be ideal full range of possible events. The concept of semi-active control is utilized to overcome this shortcoming. In this paper, a new semi-active frictional damper called Smart Adjustable Frictional (SAF) damper is introduced. SAF damper consists of hydraulic, electronic units and sensors which are all linked with an active control discipline. SAF acts as a smart damper which can adapt its slippage threshold during a dynamic excitation by measuring and controlling the structural response. The novelty of this damper is, while it controls the response of the structure in real time with acceptable time delay. The paper also reports on the results of a series of experiments which have been performed on SAF dampers to obtain their prescribed hysteretic behavior for various control algorithms. The results show that SAF can produce the desired slippage load of various algorithms in real time. Numerical models incorporating control simulations are also made to obtain the hysteretic response of the system which agrees closely with test results.

A probabilistic asteroid impact risk model: assessment of sub-300 m impacts

A comprehensive asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain input parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions for objects up to 300m in diameter. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data have little effect on the metrics of interest.

Adaptive Tuning of Frequency Thresholds Using Voltage Drop Data in Decentralized Load Shedding

Load shedding (LS) is the last firewall and the most expensive control action against power system blackout. In the conventional under frequency LS (UFLS) schemes, the load drop locations are already determined independently of the event location. Furthermore, the frequency thresholds of LS relays are prespecified and constant values which may not be a comprehensive solution for widespread range of possible events. This paper addresses the decentralized LS in which the instantaneous voltage deviation of load buses is used to determine the frequency thresholds of LS relays. The higher frequency thresholds are assigned to the loads with larger voltage decay which are often located in the vicinity of disturbance location. The proposed method simultaneously benefits from individual UFLS and under voltage LS (UVLS) features which operate in the power system without coordination. Numerical simulations in DigSilent PowerFactory software confirm the efficiency of proposed methodology in the stabilization of the power system after various severe contingencies.

From natural hazard to environmental catastrophe: Past and present

The number of environmental catastrophes is rising, mostly owing to an increase in hydrometeorological hazards. The number of disasters is escalating as the world population grows and people settle in marginal areas. In order to improve preparedness, the geological and archaeological records must be investigated as they hold a wider range of possible events than the much shorter instrumental record. Catastrophes will gain amplitude with rapid onset, long duration, larger affected area, inflexible society and, of course, convergence of threats. Too often, it seems that today's societies resist learning from the past and therefore tend to repeat errors. A new field of science is emerging: the science of environmental catastrophes, which requires not only robust chronologies to firmly link cause and effect, but also bridges the crossing between the geosciences and social sciences.

Environmental forecasting and turbulence modeling

This review describes the fundamental assumptions and current methodologies of the two main kinds of environmental forecast; the first is valid for a limited period of time into the future and over a limited space–time ‘target’, and is largely determined by the initial and preceding state of the environment, such as the weather or pollution levels, up to the time when the forecast is issued and by its state at the edges of the region being considered; the second kind provides statistical information over long periods of time and/or over large space–time targets, so that they only depend on the statistical averages of the initial and ‘edge’ conditions. Environmental forecasts depend on the various ways that models are constructed. These range from those based on the ‘reductionist’ methodology (i.e., the combination of separate, scientifically based, models for the relevant processes) to those based on statistical methodologies, using a mixture of data and scientifically based empirical modeling. These are, as a rule, focused on specific quantities required for the forecast. The persistence and predictability of events associated with environmental and turbulent flows and the reasons for variation in the accuracy of their forecasts (of the first and second kinds) are now better understood and better modeled. This has partly resulted from using analogous results of disordered chaotic systems, and using the techniques of calculating ensembles of realizations, ideally involving several different models, so as to incorporate in the probabilistic forecasts a wider range of possible events. The rationale for such an approach needs to be developed. However, other insights have resulted from the recognition of the ordered, though randomly occurring, nature of the persistent motions in these flows, whose scales range from those of synoptic weather patterns (whether storms or ‘blocked’ anticyclones) to small scale vortices. These eigen states can be predicted from the reductionist models or may be modeled specifically, for example, in terms of ‘self-organized’ critical phenomena. It is noted how in certain applications of turbulent modeling its methods are beginning to resemble those of environmental simulations, because of the trend to introduce ‘on-line’ controls of the turbulent flows in advanced flows in advanced engineering fluid systems. In real time simulations, for both local environmental processes and these engineering systems, maximum information is needed about the likely flow patterns in order to optimize both the assimilation of limited real-time data and the use of limited real-time computing capacity. It is concluded that philosophical studies of how scientific models develop and of the concept of determinism in science are helpful in considering these complex issues.

Intermingling of central and peripheral nervous tissues in rat dorsolateral vagal rootlet transitional zones

The morphology of the CNS-PNS transitional zone of adult rat dorsolateral vagus nerve rootlets is uniquely complex. A typical rootlet contains a transitional zone over 300 microns long, consisting of a central tissue projection extending distally into each rootlet and a peripheral tissue insertion extending for a longer distance deep into the brainstem. The peripheral tissue insertion is continuous with the peripheral tissue of the free rootlet through channels traversing or running parallel to the central tissue projection. Accordingly, the vagal CNS-PNS interface is topologically much more complex than that found elsewhere. In some rootlets the peripheral tissue in the brainstem constitutes an isolated island deep within the neuraxis. In others, peripheral continuity is established only through a cross connection with the peripheral tissue insertion of a neighbouring rootlet. About one fifth of all vagal myelinated axons alternate between the CNS and PNS tissue compartments. This distinguishes the vagus from all other nerves studied to date. These axons are myelinated by Schwann cells distal to the transitional zone, by oligodendrocytes in the central tissue projection and by one or more short intercalated Schwann internodes further centrally, mostly in the peripheral tissue insertion, where their perikarya commonly form closely apposed aggregates. More than four fifths of all unmyelinated axon bundles alternate between central and peripheral tissue compartments, commonly more than once. In the peripheral tissue insertion axons are enveloped by series of non-myelinating Schwann cells. Schwann processes commonly extend for over 50 microns into the central compartment at each central-peripheral transition. Around one fifth of peripherally unmyelinated axons have an oligodendrocytic sheath in the central compartment. Of these axons possessing more than one intercalated Schwann internode, over one quarter display alternation of myelinated and unmyelinated segments in the peripheral tissue insertion. Astrocytes in the transitional zone segregate PNS tissue, a role played by sheath cells further peripherally in the vagal rootlets. Astrocytes form the surface limiting membranes of the central tissue projection and the barrier between the peripheral tissue insertion and the surrounding brainstem. The barrier consists only of an attenuated layer of processes. This is deficient in places, where oligodendrocytic myelin sheaths are directly exposed to the endoneurial space of the peripheral tissue insertion and in some instances are apposed to myelinating or non-myelinating Schwann cells. Such communication between the central and peripheral compartments is unique to the vagal transitional zone. The findings are consistent with a range of possible events during development.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)