Confidence Range Research Articles

Implications of employer coverage of contraception: Cost‐effectiveness analysis of contraception coverage under an employer mandate

ObjectivesMandatory employer-based insurance coverage of contraception in the US has been a controversial component of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Prior research has examined the cost‐effectiveness of contraception in general; however, no studies have developed a formal decision model in the context of the new ACA provisions. As such, this study aims to estimate the relative cost‐effectiveness of insurance coverage of contraception under employer-sponsored insurance coverage taking into consideration newer regulations allowing for religious exemptions. Study designA decision model was developed from the employer perspective to simulate pregnancy costs and outcomes associated with insurance coverage. Method-specific estimates of contraception failure rates, outcomes and costs were derived from the literature. Uptake by marital status and age was drawn from a nationally representative database. ResultsProviding no contraception coverage resulted in 33 more unintended pregnancies per 1000 women (95% confidence range: 22.4; 44.0). This subsequently significantly increased the number of unintended births and terminations. Total costs were higher among uninsured women owing to higher costs of pregnancy outcomes. The effect of no insurance was greatest on unmarried women 20–29 years old. ConclusionsDenying female employees' full coverage of contraceptives increases total costs from the employer perspective, as well as the total number of terminations. ImplicationsInsurance coverage was found to be significantly associated with women's choice of contraceptive method in a large nationally representative sample. Using a decision model to extrapolate to pregnancy outcomes, we found a large and statistically significant difference in unintended pregnancy and terminations. Denying women contraception coverage may have significant consequences for pregnancy outcomes.

Evidence for the magnetar nature of 1E 161348−5055 in RCW 103

We report on the detection of a bright, short, structured X-ray burst coming from the supernova remnant RCW 103 on 2016 June 22 caught by the Swift/BAT monitor, and on the follow-up campaign made with Swift/XRT, Swift/UVOT and the optical/NIR GROND detector. The characteristics of this flash, such as duration, and spectral shape, are consistent with typical short bursts observed from soft gamma repeaters. The BAT error circle at 68 per cent confidence range encloses the point-like X-ray source at the centre of the nebula, 1E161348-5055. Its nature has been long debated due to a periodicity of 6.67 hr in X-rays, which could indicate either an extremely slow pulsating neutron star, or the orbital period of a very compact X-ray binary system. We found that 20 min before the BAT trigger, the soft X-ray emission of 1E161348-5055 was a factor of ~100 higher than measured 2 yr earlier, indicating that an outburst had already started. By comparing the spectral and timing characteristics of the source in the two years before the outburst and after the BAT event, we find that, besides a change in luminosity and spectral shape, also the 6.67 hr pulsed profile has significantly changed with a clear phase shift with respect to its low-flux profile. The UV/optical/NIR observations did not reveal any counterpart at the position of 1E161348-5055. Based on these findings, we associate the BAT burst with 1E161348-5055, we classify it as a magnetar, and pinpoint the 6.67 hr periodicity as the magnetar spin period.

Impact of meteorological inflow uncertainty on tracer transport and source estimation in urban atmospheres

A computational Bayesian inverse technique is used to quantify the effects of meteorological inflow uncertainty on tracer transport and source estimation in a complex urban environment. We estimate a probability distribution of meteorological inflow by comparing wind observations to Monte Carlo simulations from the Aeolus model. Aeolus is a computational fluid dynamics model that simulates atmospheric and tracer flow around buildings and structures at meter-scale resolution. Uncertainty in the inflow is propagated through forward and backward Lagrangian dispersion calculations to determine the impact on tracer transport and the ability to estimate the release location of an unknown source. Our uncertainty methods are compared against measurements from an intensive observation period during the Joint Urban 2003 tracer release experiment conducted in Oklahoma City. The best estimate of the inflow at 50 m above ground for the selected period has a wind speed and direction of 4.6−2.5+2.0 m s−1 and 158.0−23+16, where the uncertainty is a 95% confidence range. The wind speed values prescribed in previous studies differ from our best estimate by two or more standard deviations. Inflow probabilities are also used to weight backward dispersion plumes and produce a spatial map of likely tracer release locations. For the Oklahoma City case, this map pinpoints the location of the known release to within 20 m. By evaluating the dispersion patterns associated with other likely release locations, we further show that inflow uncertainty can explain the differences between simulated and measured tracer concentrations.

Changes in Physician Decision Making after CT: A Prospective Multicenter Study in Primary Care Settings.

Purpose To determine the effect of computed tomography (CT) results on physician decision making in three common clinical scenarios in primary care. Materials and Methods This research was approved by the institutional review board (IRB) and was HIPAA compliant. All physicians consented to participate with an opt-in or opt-out mechanism; patient consent was waived with IRB approval. In this prospective multicenter observational study, outpatients referred by primary care providers (PCPs) for CT evaluation of abdominal pain, hematuria, or weight loss were identified. Prior to CT, PCPs were surveyed to elicit their leading diagnosis, confidence in that diagnosis (confidence range, 0%-100%), a rule-out diagnosis, and a management plan if CT were not available. Surveys were repeated after CT. Study measures were the proportion of patients in whom leading diagnoses and management changed (PCP management vs specialist referral vs emergency department transfer), median changes in diagnostic confidence, and the proportion of patients in whom CT addressed rule-out diagnoses. Regression analyses were used to identify associations between study measures and site and participant characteristics. Specifically, logistic regression analysis was used for binary study measures (change in leading diagnosis, change in management), and linear regression analysis was used for the continuous study measure (change in diagnostic confidence). Accrual began on September 5, 2012, and ended on June 28, 2014. Results In total, 91 PCPs completed pre- and post-CT surveys in 373 patients. In patients with abdominal pain, hematuria, or weight loss, leading diagnoses changed after CT in 53% (131 of 246), 49% (36 of 73), and 57% (27 of 47) of patients, respectively. Management changed in 35% (86 of 248), 27% (20 of 74), and 54% (26 of 48) of patients, respectively. Median absolute changes in diagnostic confidence were substantial and significant (+20%, +20%, and +19%, respectively; P ≤ .001 for all); median confidence after CT was high (90%, 88%, and 80%, respectively). PCPs reported CT was helpful in confirming or excluding rule-out diagnoses in 98% (184 of 187), 97% (59 of 61), and 97% (33 of 34) of patients, respectively. Significant associations between primary measures and site and participant characteristics were not identified. Conclusion Changes in PCP leading diagnoses and management after CT were common, and diagnostic confidence increased substantially. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

No signatures of black hole spin in the X-ray spectrum of the Seyfert 1 galaxy Fairall 9

Fairall 9 is one of several type 1 active galactic nuclei for which it has been claimed that the angular momentum (or spin) of the supermassive black hole can be robustly measured, using the Fe K$\alpha$ emission line and Compton-reflection continuum in the X-ray spectrum. The method rests upon the interpretation of the Fe K$\alpha$ line profile and associated Compton-reflection continuum in terms of relativistic broadening in the strong gravity regime in the innermost regions of an accretion disc, within a few gravitational radii of the black hole. Here, we re-examine a Suzaku X-ray spectrum of Fairall 9 and show that a face-on toroidal X-ray reprocessor model involving only nonrelativistic and mundane physics provides an excellent fit to the data. The Fe K$\alpha$ line emission and Compton reflection continuum are calculated self-consistently, the iron abundance is solar, and an equatorial column density of $\sim 10^{24} \ \rm cm^{-2}$ is inferred. In this scenario, neither the Fe K$\alpha$ line, nor the Compton-reflection continuum provide any information on the black-hole spin. Whereas previous analyses have assumed an infinite column density for the distant-matter reprocessor, the shape of the reflection spectrum from matter with a finite column density eliminates the need for a relativistically broadened Fe K$\alpha$ line. We find a 90 per cent confidence range in the Fe K$\alpha$ line FWHM of $1895$-$6205 \ \rm km \ s^{-1}$, corresponding to a distance of $\sim 3100$ to $33,380$ gravitational radii from the black hole, or $0.015$-$0.49$ pc for a black-hole mass of $\sim 1-3 \times 10^{8} \ M_{\odot}$.

Solar irradiance observed at Summit, Greenland: Possible links to magnetic activity on short timescales

Measurements of ground-level visible sunlight (400–600nm) from Summit, Greenland over the period August 2004 through October 2014 define the attenuation provided by cloudiness, including its dependence on solar elevation and season. The long-term mean cloud-attenuation increases with increasing solar zenith angle, consistent with radiative transfer calculations which treat a cloud as a plane parallel layer with a strong bias toward forward scattering and an albedo for diffuse radiation near 0.1. The ratio of measured irradiance to clear-sky irradiance for solar zenith angles greater than 66° has a small, but statistically significant, positive correlation with the previous day's magnetic activity as measured by the daily Ap index, but no clear relationship exists between the irradiance ratio and daily changes in the ground-level neutron flux measured at Thule over the time frame considered. A high value of Ap on one day tends to be followed by a day whose ground-level solar irradiance is slightly greater than would occur otherwise. In an average sense, the visible irradiance following a day with Ap>16 exceeds that following a day with Ap≤16 by 1.2–1.3% with a 95% confidence range of approximately ±1.0%. The results are broadly compatible with small changes in atmospheric scattering following magnetic disturbances.

Assessing delivery practices of mothers over time and over space in Uganda, 2003-2012.

BackgroundIt is well known that safe delivery in a health facility reduces the risks of maternal and infant mortality resulting from perinatal complications. What is less understood are the factors associated with safe delivery practices. We investigate factors influencing health facility delivery practices while adjusting for multiple other factors simultaneously, spatial heterogeneity, and trends over time.MethodsWe fitted a logistic regression model to Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) data from Uganda in a framework that considered individual-level covariates, geographical features, and variations over five time points. We accounted for all two-covariate interactions and all three-covariate interactions for which two of the covariates already had a significant interaction, were able to quantify uncertainty in outputs using computationally intensive cluster bootstrap methods, and displayed outputs using a geographical information system. Finally, we investigated what information could be predicted about districts at future time-points, before the next LQAS survey is carried out. To do this, we applied the model to project a confidence interval for the district level coverage of health facility delivery at future time points, by using the lower and upper end values of known demographics to construct a confidence range for the prediction and define priority groups.ResultsWe show that ease of access, maternal age and education are strongly associated with delivery in a health facility; after accounting for this, there remains a significant trend towards greater uptake over time. We use this model together with known demographics to formulate a nascent early warning system that identifies candidate districts expected to have low prevalence of facility-based delivery in the immediate future.ConclusionsOur results support the hypothesis that increased development, particularly related to education and access to health facilities, will act to increase facility-based deliveries, a factor associated with reducing perinatal associated mortality. We provide a statistical method for using inexpensive and routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data to answer complex epidemiology and public health questions in a resource-poor setting. We produced a model based on this data that explained the spatial distribution of facility-based delivery in Uganda. Finally, we used this model to make a prediction about the future priority of districts that was validated by monitoring and evaluation data collected in the next year.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12982-016-0049-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Root connections affect radial growth of balsam poplar trees

Connected root systems reduced the negative impact of August temperatures and insect outbreak on growth. Root connections between trees can be an ecological advantage of clonal plant species in environments with unevenly distributed resources. We investigated the effects of root connectivity in stands of balsam poplar in Quebec (Canada). We evaluated differences in growth response between groups of trees with and without root connections through climate-growth analyses, comparison of the growth dynamics, and analysis of growth response to a severe forest tent caterpillar (FTC) outbreak. Current May temperature had a positive influence on radial growth of both connected and non-connected trees. Growth of non-connected trees was negatively affected by August temperatures (r = −0.3) while connected trees did not reveal a significant relationship for that month. A mixed effect ANOVA showed a significant difference (F 1, 25 = 5.59, p = 0.02) in growth responses to FTC outbreak between connected and non-connected trees. Connected trees grew on average 16 % better than unconnected trees during the outbreak, with bootstrapped 95 % confidence range from 2.28 to 31.36 %. The study suggests a sharing of resources through root connections, affecting radial growth of connected balsam poplar trees under both average and extreme environmental conditions.

650. Development of a Manufacturing Process Using Monte Carlo Simulations to Support KTE-C19 (Anti-CD19 CAR T Cells) Studies in Leukemia

Introduction: ZUMA-3 and -4 (NCT02614066 and NCT02625480) are ongoing phase 1-2 multicenter trials evaluating KTE-C19 in subjects with relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (r/r ALL). We designed a process suitable for CAR-T manufacturing in the presence of circulating leukemic cells using risk-based Monte Carlo simulations. The result is a robust process capable of generating the target subject dose with high certainty, and minimal operational complexity and variability.Methods: Process design was initiated with the development and classification of unit operations within a sequential model. Rather than defining each process step with a large multivariate array of parameters, probability density functions (PDF) were utilized to represent all potential operational states. Best-fit values for the scale and shape of each PDF, with most units being Weibull and Johnson SU distributions, were computed from empirical data. The values were subsequently utilized to perform a Monte Carlo simulation (n=10,000 iterations) for the generation of a cumulative distribution function for each unit operation, thus characterizing ranges of operational confidence as a function of varying process inputs. The manufacturing success rate for the model was evaluated based on random and independent modifications of key process parameters, and each value was graded based on their relative impact on the process. This method of identifying high-risk conditions throughout the manufacturing design provided a basis for process optimization activities and experimental design. Furthermore, the number of T cells required to initiate the manufacturing process was minimized by performing an inverse mass balance of the simulation. Once optimal ranges were identified for each unit operation, a master protocol was prepared for testing the entire process at full-scale.Results: In preparation for clinical manufacturing, healthy-donor GMP runs (n=8) initiated with no more than 4 × 108 T cells have successfully manufactured the target cell dose of 2 × 106 CAR+ T cells/kg body weight within ≤7 process days. The upfront T cell isolation process from leukapheresis material achieved a target cell recovery with nominal variance (median 54%, range 46%-65%), and %CD3+CD45+CD56− cell enrichment (median 87%, range 78%-94%). Transduction efficiency was measured using a direct identity assay of anti-CD19 surface expression (median 54%, range 38%-66% CAR+ T cells), and stable rates of fold expansion (FE) and doubling time (Td) from day 2 to 6 were achieved (median 9.0 FE, range 6.6-11 FE), (median 27 hours, range 26-35 hours Td). The products contained predominantly naive (median 52%, range 18%-92%) and central memory (median 46%, range 2.6%-64%) T cells, with the remaining population containing effector memory (median 4.0%, range 1.0%-17%) and effector phenotypes (median 0.9%, range 0.3%-5.1%).Conclusion: Using principles of risk-based Monte Carlo simulations, a robust and optimized process has been developed to address the potential challenges of manufacturing an autologous T cell product for leukemic subjects. Performance data generated from healthy-donor material provide a range of confidence for work with patient apheresis material, and this process which was designed to minimize the manufacturing failure rate will be utilized in ZUMA-3 and -4. The process model can be reassessed with data from relevant subject populations to further improve modeling activities.

Effects of physical characteristics and residence style on alignment of lower extremity.

This research was performed to identify the incidence of deformity of lower extremity and to identify the relationship of the incidence between the deformities. Once the incidences and relationship are found, next purpose was to find the effects of physical characteristics and residence styles on the development of lower extremity deformities. One hundred fifteen males and 108 females participated in this study. Data collecting was performed by questionnaire and visual postural evaluation. The incidence of genu varus was significantly high in standing-up life style compared to sitting-on life style (chi-square=8.28; P=0.004). However, the incidences of heel varus (chi-square=13.223; P=0.004) and femoral torsion (chi-square=19.347; P<0.0001) were significantly high in sitting-on life style than standing-up life style. The incidences of genu varus (chi-square=24.18; P<0.0001), heel varus (chi-square= 15.412; P<0.0001), and tibial torsion (chi-square=6.285; P<0.012) were significantly high in sitting-on life style compared to standing-up life style (P<0.05). The odd ratio result for sitting-on life style against standing-up life style showed 6.6 times significantly high relationship in femoral torsion (95% confidence range, 1.64–26.47) in men.

A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution

We propose here a new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution that is based on additive decomposition and simple hypothesis testing. Most current statistical methods for detection and attribution rely on linear regression models where the observations are regressed onto expected response patterns to different external forcings. These methods do not use physical information provided by climate models regarding the expected response magnitudes to constrain the estimated responses to the forcings. Climate modelling uncertainty is difficult to take into account with regression based methods and is almost never treated explicitly. As an alternative to this approach, our statistical model is only based on the additivity assumption; the proposed method does not regress observations onto expected response patterns. We introduce estimation and testing procedures based on likelihood maximization, and show that climate modelling uncertainty can easily be accounted for. Some discussion is provided on how to practically estimate the climate modelling uncertainty based on an ensemble of opportunity. Our approach is based on the “models are statistically indistinguishable from the truth” paradigm, where the difference between any given model and the truth has the same distribution as the difference between any pair of models, but other choices might also be considered. The properties of this approach are illustrated and discussed based on synthetic data. Lastly, the method is applied to the linear trend in global mean temperature over the period 1951–2010. Consistent with the last IPCC assessment report, we find that most of the observed warming over this period (+0.65 K) is attributable to anthropogenic forcings (+0.67 $$\pm$$ 0.12 K, 90 % confidence range), with a very limited contribution from natural forcings ( $$-0.01\pm 0.02$$ K).

경험적 모드분해법을 이용한 기상인자와 우리나라 강수 및 기온의 상관관계 분석 : I. 자료의 분해 및 특성 분석

AbstractRecently, natural hazards have occurred frequently due to climate change. The research need for predicting variability and tendency of precipitation and temperature has been increased. However, it is difficult to determine the characteristics of precipitation and temperature within a confidence range since they change due to complex factors with choppy and too many components. If their characteristics having more than one component are decomposed, then it can be useful for determining the variation of such characteristics more accurately. In this study, Korean precipitation and temperature were decomposed and their Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) were extracted from Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Finally, the characteristics of Korean precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in terms of periodicity and tendency.Keywords:empirical mode decomposition, intrinsic mode function, energy density 경험적 모드분해법을 이용한 기상인자와 우리나라 강수 및 기온의 상관관계 분석 : I. 자료의 분해 및 특성 분석 안시권 a ㆍ최원영 b ㆍ김태림

Strength of Composite Joints in Structural Components and Articles

Currently, the composite materials (CM) are widely used in the aerospace technology and mechanical engineering where the key parameters characterizing structural components and articles are related to their weight characteristics as well as their performance under high temperatures. For the experimental investigation of composite-based threaded items, the rod-based 3Dreinforced carbon-carbon composite material (CCCM) was chosen. The subject of the research was the metric thread. The test samples were cut of the aforesaid material along one of the reinforcement direction. The following thread sizes were analyzed: М24×1.5; М24×2; М24×3. Dependence of the thread strength on the number of thread turns was determined within the range of 1 to 10 thread turns for М24×2 thread size. The remaining test samples were used to obtain the relationship between the thread load bearing capacity and the thread pitch. The obtained dependence of the thread load bearing capacity on the number of thread turns showed the following: a) An increment in the thread load bearing capacity decreases with increasing number of thread turns. However, this effect is less pronounced than that observed for the metal ‘screw/nut’ pair. b) With the CCCM material under study, it proved to be impossible to test configurations having only 1 or 2 thread turns. c) The wide confidence range (CR) of the failure load can be explained by the fact that the material under study features an apparent structural heterogeneity, with a different probability of hitting a unit cell of the matrix and filler of the material. Nevertheless, the confidence range is stable, thus indicating indirectly the possibility of using this test method for further study of composite-based threaded items. There is an explicit correlation between the thread load bearing capacity and the thread pitch. Increase in the thread strength with increasing thread pitch depends on the relationship between the pitch size and the characteristic size of the unit cell of the material. The test research has shown that it is possible to make CCCM-based screw joints designed for operation under high temperatures as an alternative for metal screw joints, provided that the key parameters such as the thread profile, pitch, diameter and the number of thread turns are properly chosen.

Study on Fabric Surface Roughness and its Influence on Worsted Fabric Abrasion Resistance

Surface roughness is of paramount importance in predicting tactile properties of fabrics. This study aimed at investigating surface roughness and the effect of this property on the abrasion resistance of worsted fabrics. Nine different groups of worsted fabrics were produced. The fabrics had three weave types and three areal densities. A non-contact laser based system was developed to scan the surface of the fabrics. In order to extract the surface roughness profile, a new method of data analysis was presented. Several two dimensional (2D) and three dimensional (3D) roughness parameters were introduced and calculated. Statistical analysis proved that the effect of weave type and weft density was significant on all of the 2D and 3D surface roughness parameters at a confidence range of 95%. However, the 3D parameters provided the surface roughness with just one number in comparison with the 2D ones (warp and weft directions). Therefore, the 3D parameters provided a better indication for the surface roughness which had the effect of both warp and weft directions. Results showed that there was a strong linear correlation between the abrasion resistance and the 3D roughness parameters.

Ly α EMISSION FROM A LUMINOUS z = 8.68 GALAXY: IMPLICATIONS FOR GALAXIES AS TRACERS OF COSMIC REIONIZATION

We report the discovery of Lyman-alpha emission (Ly$\alpha$) in the bright galaxy EGSY-2008532660 (hereafter EGSY8p7) using the MOSFIRE spectrograph at the Keck Observatory. First reported by Roberts-Borsani et al. (2015), it was selected for spectroscopic observations because of its photometric redshift ($z_{phot}=8.57^{+0.22}_{-0.43}$), apparent brightness (H$_{160}=25.26\pm0.09$) and red Spitzer/IRAC [3.6]-[4.5] color indicative of contamination by strong oxygen emission in the [4.5] band. With a total integration of $\sim$4.3 hours, our data reveal an emission line at $\simeq$11776 {\AA} which we argue is likely Ly$\alpha$ at a redshift $z_{spec}=8.683^{+0.001}_{-0.004}$, in good agreement with the photometric estimate. The line was detected independently on two nights using different slit orientations and its detection significance is $\sim7.5\sigma$. An overlapping skyline contributes significantly to the uncertainty on the total line flux although the significance of the detected line is robust to a variety of skyline-masking procedures. By direct addition and a Gaussian fit, we estimate a 95\% confidence range of 1.0--2.5$\times10^{-17}$ erg s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$, corresponding to a rest-frame equivalent width of 17--42 {\AA}. EGSY8p7 is the most distant galaxy confirmed spectroscopically to date, and the third luminous source in the EGS field beyond $z_{phot}\gtrsim7.5$ with detectable Ly$\alpha$ emission viewed at a time when the intergalactic medium is believed to be fairly neutral. Although the reionization process was probably patchy, we discuss whether luminous sources with prominent IRAC color excesses may harbor harder ionizing spectra than the dominant fainter population thereby creating earlier ionized bubbles. Further spectroscopic follow-up of such bright sources promises important insight into the early formation of galaxies.

Estimation of 3D Effective Properties from 2D Cross Sections in Porous Electrodes

The study summarizes the correlations between 2D and 3D microstructural properties of SOFC electrodes within the framework of stereology. 3D geometrical properties, such as the mean particle diameter, the pore size, the specific surface area and the three-phase boundary density are correlated by simple relations to 2D properties evaluated in a cross section, such as the mean diameter of the sectioned particles, the mean chord length, the particle perimeter exposed to the porous phase and the number of three-phase boundary points per unit area, respectively. The strong correlation between 2D and 3D properties predicted by stereological relations is verified by using packing algorithms in a wide range of porosity, particle size and electrode composition. The results provide practical indications that can be easily applied to SEM images of real samples for a short-cut estimation of the effective properties and of the range of confidence of the prediction.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model in the upstream of Heihe River basin

Abstract. The increasing water problems and eco-environmental issues of Heihe River basin have attracted widespread attention. In this research, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model was selected to simulate the water cycle of the upstream in Heihe River basin. The GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) method was used to study the sensitivity of the model parameters and the uncertainty of model outputs. The results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficient coefficient was 0.62 in the calibration period and 0.64 in the validation period. Of the seven elected parameters, Dm (maximum baseflow that can occur from the third soil layer), Ws (fraction of the maximum soil moisture of the third soil layer where non-linear baseflow occurs), and d1 (soil depth of the first soil layer), were very sensitive, especially d1. Observed discharges were almost in the range of the 95% predicted confidence range.

Surface Roughness Assessment of Woven Fabrics Using Fringe Projection Moiré Techniques

In this paper, a new approach is proposed for characterizing the surface roughness of woven fabrics. This approach is based on the fringe projection moire techniques and analysis of the moire pattern, which is caused by the interaction between the Ronchi grating and the periodic structure of a woven fabric. In this study, an image processing procedure was employed and a new parameter called the “roughness index” was defined for quantifying the surface roughness. The results obtained from the moire technique were validated by a set of pair-comparison subjective tests. The proper correlation, with an average R-squared value of 0.9087, between subjective and objective tests confirmed the accuracy, correctness and efficiency of the new method. Statistical analysis of the roughness results clarified that the effect of fabric structural parameters such as the weave structure and weft density is significant in the confidence range of 95%.

Нормативы финансовой устойчивости российских предприятий: отраслевые особенности

Елена Анатольевна Федорова - Финансовый унивеситет при Правительстве Российской Федерации. Электронная почта: ecolena@mail.ru&#x0D; Дмитрий Вячеславовчич Тимофеев - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая Школа Экономики". Электронная почта: DTimofeev@hse.ru&#x0D; Нормативныйподход в прогнозировании банкротства предприятия заключается в сравнении рассчитанного финансового показателя с нормативным значением (или по вхождению рассчитанного показателя в некоторый «доверительный диапазон») утвержденным либо законодательно, либо содержащимся в рейтинговых методиках анализа, принимаемых к исполнению на самом предприятии (например, определение платежеспособности организаций-заемщиков скоринговыми системами или службами банка). Если значение отдельного показателя находится вне такого доверительного диапазона, то предполагается, что финансовое положение предприятия плохое. Цель данной работы – проверить состоятельность действующих в РФ нормативных значений коэффициентов, определяющих финансовое состояние предприятий на основании финансовой отчетности 5040 российских предприятий, относящихся к отраслям: строительство, сельское хозяйство, электроэнергетика, торговля и телекоммуникации. Наши результаты выявили невысокую общую прогностическую силу коэффициента текущей ликвидности (49,3%), коэффициента быстрой ликвидности (42,9%), коэффициента ликвидности при мобилизации средств (27,3%), коэффициента соотношения заемных и собственных средств (35,4%), коэффициента обеспеченности собственными оборотными средствами (64,7%), коэффициента маневренности собственных оборотных средств (29,7%) с помощью действующих нормативных значений.Уточненные с помощью бинарных деревьев классификации и статистического метода нормативы для всех пяти отраслей позволили добиться повышения прогностической силы указанных коэффициентов от 19,1 п.п. (для коэффициента обеспеченности собственными оборотными средствами) до 49,8 п.п. (для коэффициента маневренности собственных оборотных средств). Выявлены отраслевые различия разработанных нормативов по отраслям: телекоммуникаций, строительства, сельского хозяйства, электроэнергетики, торговли. Довольно значительные отраслевые различия выявлены для коэффициентов финансовой устойчивости в отличии от коэффициентов ликвидности.

Constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics in a data-limited world: integrating ecological &amp;quot;common sense&amp;quot; in a model–data fusion framework

Abstract. Many of the key processes represented in global terrestrial carbon models remain largely unconstrained. For instance, plant allocation patterns and residence times of carbon pools are poorly known globally, except perhaps at a few intensively studied sites. As a consequence of data scarcity, carbon models tend to be underdetermined, and so can produce similar net fluxes with very different parameters and internal dynamics. To address these problems, we propose a series of ecological and dynamic constraints (EDCs) on model parameters and initial conditions, as a means to constrain ecosystem variable inter-dependencies in the absence of local data. The EDCs consist of a range of conditions on (a) carbon pool turnover and allocation ratios, (b) steady-state proximity, and (c) growth and decay of model carbon pools. We use a simple ecosystem carbon model in a model–data fusion framework to determine the added value of these constraints in a data-poor context. Based only on leaf area index (LAI) time series and soil carbon data, we estimate net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for (a) 40 synthetic experiments and (b) three AmeriFlux tower sites. For the synthetic experiments, we show that EDCs lead to an overall 34% relative error reduction in model parameters, and a 65% reduction in the 3 yr NEE 90% confidence range. In the application at AmeriFlux sites all NEE estimates were made independently of NEE measurements. Compared to these observations, EDCs resulted in a 69–93% reduction in 3 yr cumulative NEE median biases (–0.26 to +0.08 kg C m−2), in comparison to standard 3 yr median NEE biases (–1.17 to −0.84 kg C m−2). In light of these findings, we advocate the use of EDCs in future model–data fusion analyses of the terrestrial carbon cycle.