Range Of Climate Change Projections Research Articles

Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

This study quantifies how changes in temperature and precipitation would influence the intensity and duration of extreme fires across Europe. The analysis explores the impact of a range of climate change projections on fire events compared to a baseline of fire danger, using a 30-year ERA5 reanalysis. The results show that areas in southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring in any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 °C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts. The increased probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, would put extra strain on Europe’s ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on future bioretention performance across the contiguous United States

In light of shifting precipitation patterns induced by climate change, communities are seeking to build resiliency in urban drainage systems through interventions such as green stormwater infrastructure (GSI). Bioretention cells are one of the most commonly implemented forms of GSI for their ability to reduce peak discharge, retain runoff, and filter pollutants. However, they may be at risk of reduced function in the future due to deviations from historic precipitation frequency and intensity patterns which are essential to their design. Further, changes in future function are likely to vary regionally as the magnitude of future climate changes will differ across the globe. To explore the range of impacts to future bioretention function, an ensemble of 10 regional climate models at 17 locations across the contiguous United States were evaluated to provide the widest range of potential future outcomes using a probabilistic approach to capture the uncertain nature of climate change. Bioretention cells were modeled using USEPA’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to compare existing and future performance under a range of climate change projections. Median annual rainfall and 99th percentile rainfall event depths and intensities were projected to increase across all 17 locations while antecedent dry period (i.e., the time between consecutive rain events) was projected to increase for 11 locations. Correspondingly, bioretention cell hydrologic performance decreased across all 17 locations under future scenarios: relative to performance under current climate conditions, annual volumes of infiltration decreased between 4.0 and 24.0% across all 17 locations while overflow increased between 0.4 and 19.6% for 15 locations. Results suggest that bioretention cells in the southern United States are at significant risk of reduced function in the future while those in the Midwest and Northeast are at moderate risk. Bioretention cells in the Northwest/West performed the best under future climate scenarios; that is, they showed similar function in the future to that of the present. Findings demonstrate that most, if not all, bioretention cells across the contiguous United States will require some degree of modification to maintain existing function under future conditions.

Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

AbstractThe hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub‐daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st century climate change impact for hydrology in entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) at a wide range of scales, we use a high resolution cryospheric‐hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA basins to quantify the compound effects of future changes in precipitation and temperature based on the range of climate change projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses for HMA's rivers, dictated by their hydrological regimes. At the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a shift in the magnitude and peak of water availability, to earlier in the year. At the decade to century scale, after an initial increase, the glacier melt declines by the mid or end of the century except for the Tarim river basin, where it continues to increase. Despite a large variability in hydrological regimes across HMA's rivers, our results indicate relatively consistent climate change responses across HMA in terms of total water availability at decadal time scales. Although total water availability increases for the headwaters, changes in seasonality and magnitude may diverge widely between basins and need to be addressed while adapting to future changes in a region where food security, energy security as well as biodiversity, and the livelihoods of many depend on water from HMA.

Global warming likely to enhance black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) growth in a Mediterranean riparian forest

Mediterranean riparian forests are comparably humid environments that provide shelter for several broadleaved deciduous tree species at their southernmost distribution margin. The stability of these communities, however, is threatened by climate change as well as invasive tree species, such as black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.). So far, black locust's European distribution appears to be mostly limited by low temperatures, but global warming might enhance its growth in colder areas. Moreover, R. pseudoacacia can better access water from the phreatic level than some native non-phreatophytic tree species such as European ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.). In this study, we compare the performance of European ash, a native deciduous tree species at its southernmost distribution border, with the invasive black locust, under a range of climate change projections, in a stand located at N.E. Spain. We first use Bayesian inference to calibrate the GOTILWA + vegetation model against sap flow data for both tree species. We then project each tree species’ performance under several climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that increasing temperatures will enlarge black locust's vegetative period, leading to substantially increased annual productivity if the phreatic water table keeps reachable. For European ash, we project a slight increase in productivity, but with higher uncertainty. Our findings suggest that black locust will profit more from global warming than the native European ash, which is concerning because of the already detrimental impact of black locust for the local ecosystems. We conclude that climate change has the potential to stimulate black locust growth on Mediterranean riparian forests. Forest management should therefore include mechanisms to avoid black locust establishment, such as avoid clear-cutting and maintaining closed riparian forest canopies.

Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee.

Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present‐day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.

Climate change and environmental water reallocation in the Murray–Darling Basin: Impacts on flows, diversions and economic returns to irrigation

Summary Increasing river environment degradation from historical growth in withdrawal is leading to reallocation of water from irrigation in many basins. We examine how potential reduction in irrigation allocations under a newly enacted environmental water plan for the Murray Darling Basin in Australia, in combination with projected climate change, impact on flows, diversions and the economic returns to irrigation. We use an integrated hydrology–economics model capable of simulating the year-to-year variability of flows, diversions, and economic returns to model three levels of reallocation (2400, 2750 and 3200 GL) under the historical climate, and under a dry, a median and a wet climate change projection. Previous assessments of the reallocation plan do not address climate change impacts, nor the impact of year to year variability in flows on economic returns. The broad results of this analysis are that estimated river flows and diversions are more sensitive to the range of climate change projections than to the range of diversion reallocation scenarios considered. The projected median climate change more or less removes from flows the gains to the environment resulting from reallocation. Reallocations only in combination with no climate change, or climate change at the wetter end of the range of projections, will lead to flows greater than those experienced under the water management regime prior to reallocation. The reduction in economic returns to irrigation is less than the reduction in water available for irrigation: a 25% reduction in the annual average water availability is estimated to reduce the annual average gross value of irrigated agricultural production by about 10%. This is consistent with expectation of economic theory (since more marginal activities are reduced first) and also with observations of reduced water availability and returns in the recent drought in the Murray–Darling Basin. Irrigation returns vary less across the range of climate change projections considered than across the range of reallocation scenarios considered.

Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from −5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from −5 to −30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.

Hydrological response to climate warming: The Upper Feather River Watershed

The hydrological response and sensitivity to climate warming of a snow-dominated watershed, the Upper Feather River Basin (UFRB) in Northern California, were evaluated and quantified using observed changes, detrending, and specified temperature-based sensitivity simulations. The non-stationarity in historical data was detected with trend analysis and the warming trends in historical forcing data were removed by detrending. The physically-based and spatially-distributed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was used to force uniform climate warming (+1 °C to +4 °C) to investigate hydrologic sensitivity to temperature increase. Six Global Climate Models (GCMs) with two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A2 and B1, were selected to represent a range of climate change projections. These projected changes were then applied to the detrended historical forcing data to simulate climate change effects in a detrended, quasi-stationary setting. The results indicate that: (1) historical annual precipitation and streamflow have no trends, but air temperature and seasonal streamflow have statistically significant trends. (2) By detrending temperature, the strong trends in seasonal streamflow are virtually eliminated. (3) Hydrologic Sensitivity to climate warming includes small changes in annual streamflow and actual evapotranspiration, significant changes in streamflow timing and increased frequency and magnitude in extreme flows. (4) All GCM projections lead to negative impact on water supply.

Environmental change in grasslands: Assessment using models

Modeling studies and observed data suggest that plant production, species distribution, disturbance regimes, grassland biome boundaries and secondary production (i.e., animal productivity) could be affected by potential changes in climate and by changes in land use practices. There are many studies in which computer models have been used to assess the impact of climate changes on grassland ecosystems. A global assessment of climate change impacts suggest that some grassland ecosystems will have higher plant production (humid temperate grasslands) while the production of extreme continental steppes (e.g., more arid regions of the temperate grasslands of North America and Eurasia) could be reduced substantially. All of the grassland systems studied are projected to lose soil carbon, with the greatest losses in the extreme continental grassland systems. There are large differences in the projected changes in plant production for some regions, while alterations in soil C are relatively similar over a range of climate change projections drawn from various General Circulation Models (GCM's). The potential impact of climatic change on cattle weight gains is unclear. The results of modeling studies also suggest that the direct impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis and water use in grasslands must be considered since these direct impacts could be as large as those due to climatic changes. In addition to its direct effects on photosynthesis and water use, elevated CO2 concentrations lower N content and reduce digestibility of the forage.