Rainfall Trend Analysis Research Articles

Geographically distributed trend and variability analysis of rainfall over the state of Haryana, India, using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data dataset

Geographically distributed trend and variability analysis of rainfall over the state of Haryana, India, using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data dataset

Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trends for a mixed crop-livestock production system: its implications for developing adaptation strategies

Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trends for a mixed crop-livestock production system: its implications for developing adaptation strategies

Assessment of rainfall trend over Periyar Vaigai Command area of Tamil Nadu

Rainfall trend analysis is critical for studying the effects of climate change. The most crucial aspect of understanding climate change at the basin level is, how it will affect water usage, planning, and development. The present study has been attempted to analyze the trend of annual and seasonal rainfall data over Periyar Vaigai Command area from 1982 – 2021 (40 years) employing different trend analysis methods i.e., Mann-Kendall test for trend significance, Sequential Mann-Kendall test for assessment of start and end of trend, Sen’s slope test for trend magnitude, Innovative Trend Analysis for combination of trends and linear regression analysis for trend detection. Statistically positive trend was detected in summer season using all methods whereas, annual and SWM rainfall showed a statistically significant decreasing trend. Winter and NEM rainfall resulted with no significant trend. The results from this study helps to adopt various water management practices and useful for policy makers to prepare appropriate mitigation strategies.

Comment on “Analysis of extreme rainfall trend and mapping of the Wadi pluvial flood in the Gaza coastal plain of Palestine”

Comment on “Analysis of extreme rainfall trend and mapping of the Wadi pluvial flood in the Gaza coastal plain of Palestine”

Analysis of Pre-monsoon and Post-monsoon Seasonal Rainfall Trends by Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator Test in Himachal Pradesh, India

The purpose of the current study is to determine the trends and patterns of precipitation occurring in the periods before and after the monsoon season at 12 meteorological stations located in the twelve districts of the Himachal Pradesh region. The timeframe of the analysis is from 1991 to 2020. For this study, we used the Mann-Kendall test and estimator Sen's slope estimator test. Precipitation is an essential climatic factor that can act as a signal of climate change. In order to understand how climate change may affect water resource planning and management, it is crucial to understand rainfall pattern. The results indicate that there is a growing tendency in the pre-monsoon season at some sites, while some stations are seeing a declining trend. Keylong has the most significant falling trend, with a Sen slope of -4.154mm whereas Manali had the highest increasing trend at Sen's Slope (1.471mm). In contrast, the analysis of post-monsoon season data reveals an upward tendency in all studied regions, except for Dharamshala, where Sen's slope (-0.042mm) shows a slight downward trend whereas Manali had the highest increasing trend with the value of 1.771mm. According to the research, agricultural and horticultural sectors in Himachal Pradesh are at risk from heavy rainfall and landslides during the periods before and after the monsoon season, respectively, if the patterns continue to rise. Conversely, a decrease in these patterns might result in water scarcity. To tackle adverse climate changes, the general public must embrace adaptation measures based on long-term series data.

Trend analysis of rainfall (1984-2023) of Tlawng River basin of Mizoram, India using Man-Kendall test

Trend analysis of rainfall (1984-2023) of Tlawng River basin of Mizoram, India using Man-Kendall test

Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test method in Nanded district of Maharashtra state

Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test method in Nanded district of Maharashtra state

Rainfall Trend Analysis in Mysuru and Bengaluru Districts of Karnataka, India

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity today, with temperature, precipitation, and runoff being key indicators closely linked to its impact. Understanding the spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall is crucial for effective water resource management and agriculture. This study focuses on analyzing rainfall data from the Mysuru and Bengaluru districts, located in the Southern and Eastern dry zones of Karnataka, respectively. These regions play a pivotal role in the state's agricultural development and overall economic growth. We utilized daily precipitation records from two meteorological stations, spanning the period from 1983 to 2018, to analyze rainfall trends on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. To assess these trends, we applied both parametric and non-parametric statistical methods, including the simple regression method, Mann-Kendall test, and Sen’s slope estimator. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect significant trends in the precipitation time series, while Sen’s slope estimator quantified the magnitude of these trends. Bengaluru had higher average annual rainfall (928.81 mm) compared to Mysuru (681.65 mm), with excess rainfall in 2005 and a positive Pre-Monsoon trend (+3.543 mm/year), while Mysuru experienced maximum rainfall deficit in 2016 and a negative Monsoon trend (-3.238 mm/year). Neither district showed a significant trend in annual rainfall. The findings of this trend analysis are essential for informed water resource planning and management in the region.

Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Mahabubnagar District of Telangana State, India

Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Mahabubnagar District of Telangana State, India

Modified data classification for extreme values in Şen’s innovative trend analysis: A comparative trend study for the Aegean and Eastern Anatolia Regions of Türkiye

The increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has worsened global warming, and marked changes have been observed in meteorological and climatic events, especially since the early 2000s. Trend analysis studies are important for determining changes in meteorological and climatic events over time. This study investigated the trends of maximum precipitation and minimum temperature in the Aegean Region and Eastern Anatolia Region of Türkiye by conducting an innovative trend analysis (ITA), the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and linear regression analysis (LRA). As a method, ITA has been used together with traditional methods in the last decade, and its advantages have been demonstrated in comparative trend studies. An important contribution of ITA is that it can categorize datasets according to their size (low, medium, and high). The classification technique of the ITA method includes dividing the sorted dataset into three equal parts and separately examining the trends of low, medium, and high data values. This approach is reasonable for datasets with low skewness (or normally distributed series). However, the normal distribution acceptance of ITA data classification is insufficient for trend analysis of data series with extreme values. Therefore, we propose a modified data classification method to rationally examine skewed datasets with the use of quartiles. Our study was performed for the trend analysis of maximum rainfall and minimum temperature data in two regions located in the west and east of Türkiye showing different climatic characteristics. In the first part of the study in which the numerical trend analysis of ITA was evaluated, the MK and LRA methods showed similar results, whereas the ITA detected trends at a greater number of stations owing to its sensitivity feature in detecting trends. In the second part, which included data classification in trend analysis, the equal split data classification used in the ITA and the modified data classification proposed in the study were compared. The comparative results of the trend analysis of the maximum rainfall and minimum temperature data showed the superiority of the proposed data classification in examining the trend of extreme values, especially for maximum rainfall data with relatively high skewness.

Long-Term Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Trend Analysis of Giridih District, Jharkhand, India

Long-Term Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Trend Analysis of Giridih District, Jharkhand, India

Crop planning using innovative trend analysis of 62-years rainfall data

The success of climate-smart agriculture in high rainfall zone lies in understanding the rainfall trend and planning or modifying the cropping system for maximum yield. Moisture stress in critical crop growth stages is detrimental to the crop and drastically reduces the yield. Udhagamandalam region in Western Ghats is a high rainfall area and is largely cultivated by vegetable crops. Rainfall trend based crop planning would enhance the crop yield without water stress. A study was carried out at ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Dhemaji, Assam focused on assessing the long-term seasonal and monthly rainfall trends of Udhagamandalam region, Tamil Nadu using non-parametric tests and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA). Daily rainfall of 62 years from 1960–2021 was analyzed with non-parametric tests, viz. Mann-Kendall and modified Mann-Kendall and ITA to find the seasonal rainfall characteristics. Mann- Kendall (3.055) and modified Mann-Kendall (3.055) tests showed a significantly increasing trend in the annual and seasonal monsoonal rainfall. ITA revealed either a significant positive or a negative trend in all the months except February, with the highest trend in June (2.625). In contrast to standard non-parametric tests, ITA detected a significant positive trend in all seasons and annual rainfall, except in cold winters where the trend is negative. The long-term trend analysis results suggest that the ITA is more precise for rainfall trend analysis than standard non-parametric tests and can be used to evaluate hidden variations of rainfall trends. Hence, ITA is recommended for analyzing rainfall trends for crop planning in high-rainfall regions. IT analysis of 62 years of rainfall data of Udhagamandalam suggested that vegetable crop planning can be done by farmers from August–November months as the rainfall trend during this period is assured as an increasing trend of rainfall pattern was observed.

GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of climatic conditions within a region is paramount for informed rural planning and decision-making processes, particularly in light of the prevailing challenges posed by climate change and variability. This study undertook an assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall trends across various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within Wolaita, utilizing data collected from ten strategically positioned rain gauge stations. The detection of trends and their magnitudes was facilitated through the application of the Mann–Kendall (MKs) test in conjunction with Sen's slope estimator. Spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall were further analyzed utilizing ArcGIS10.8 environment and XLSTAT with R programming tools. The outcomes derived from ordinary kriging analyses unveiled notable disparities in the coefficient of variability (CV) for mean annual rainfall across distinct AEZs. Specifically, observations indicated that lowland regions exhibit relatively warmer climates and lower precipitation levels compared to their highland counterparts. Within the lowland AEZs, the majority of stations showcased statistically non-significant positive trends (p > 0.05) in annual rainfall, whereas approximately two-thirds of midland AEZ stations depicted statistically non-significant negative trends. Conversely, over half of the stations situated within highland AEZs displayed statistically non-significant positive trends in annual rainfall. During the rainy season, highland AEZs experienced higher precipitation levels, while the south-central midland areas received a moderate amount of rainfall. In contrast, the northeast and southeast lowland AEZs consistently received diminished rainfall across all seasons compared to other regions. This study underscores the necessity for the climate resilient development and implementation of spatiotemporally informed interventions through implementing region-specific adaptation strategies, such as water conservation measures and crop diversification, to mitigate the potential impact of changing rainfall patterns on agricultural productivity in Wolaita.

Analysis of streamflow and rainfall trends and variability over the Lake Kariba catchment, Upper Zambezi Basin

ABSTRACT Hydro-meteorological trend analysis is critical for assessing climate change and variability at basin and regional levels. This study examined the long- and short-term trends from stream discharge and rainfall data in the Lake Kariba catchment. A trend and change point analysis was carried out on the mean, minimum and maximum monthly average time series for 14 gauging stations that are located within the Kariba catchment. The Mann–Kendall and the Pettitt tests were used to determine the trend and any changes in the long-term average of the time series. The magnitude of the trend was determined by Sen's slope method. The results indicate that generally there has been a decreasing trend in river and rainfall long-term mean values across the catchment. A statistically significant trend (p ≤ 0.05) was observed at Zambezi River at Lukulu, Senanga and Victoria Falls, with a positive correlation in Pearsons's coefficient of water levels and rainfall at Lukulu (0.312) and Senanga (0.365). The decrease in the time series trend and the change point observed have been attributed to anthropogenic activities, climate change and variability impact on the catchment. The findings are critical for climate risk management and reduction decisions for near- and long-term timescales.

Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature of Periyar River Basin

Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature of Periyar River Basin

Innovative trend analysis of annual rainfall in Iraq during 1980-2021

Innovative trend analysis of annual rainfall in Iraq during 1980-2021

District-wise rainfall trend analysis by using non-parametric approach: A case of the State of Haryana, India

District-wise rainfall trend analysis by using non-parametric approach: A case of the State of Haryana, India

Spatial and temporal trend analysis of rainfall in Nagaland (India) using machine learning techniques

Spatial and temporal trend analysis of rainfall in Nagaland (India) using machine learning techniques

Analysis of temperature and rainfall trends in Beni City, Democratic Republic of Congo

Analysis of temperature and rainfall trends in Beni City, Democratic Republic of Congo

Spatio-Temporal Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City

Spatio-temporal variations and trends in climatic variables play an essential role in the adaptation and mitigation of climate change policy. This study analyzed spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City based on non-parametric statistical trend tests and spatial interpolation techniques. In particular, Sen’s Slope Estimator and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) methods were applied to construct the spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall over the city. The outcomes show that annual and seasonal rainfall experienced significant increasing trends. Generally, these findings draw out an overall picture of rainfall variability in terms of space and time, which makes it possible for local decision-makers to promote more promising action plans in order to respond to natural disasters in the context of climate change.