Rainfall Shocks Research Articles

Rainfall shocks and state repression: How rainfall shocks incentivize governments to commit human rights abuses

Rainfall shocks and state repression: How rainfall shocks incentivize governments to commit human rights abuses

Riders on the storm: How do firms navigate production and market conditions amid El Niño?

This paper investigates how heavy rainfalls resulting from the 2002–03 El Niño climate pattern affect Ecuadorian firms' production and market conditions. We show that affected firms' revenue productivity (TFP-R) and markups decrease. This is due to production efficiency losses (TFP-Q) and higher marginal costs of initially less efficient firms. Decreased product output prices in response to lower product demand explain the impact on initially more efficient firms. However, the shock neither affects market shares nor survival rates of initially less efficient firms. Consequently, the productivity distribution of Ecuador's industry is not affected by the shock. We also show a swift recovery of production and market demand in the immediate aftermath of the shock. Impacts in 2002–03 are like those of the 1997–98 rainfall shock. Differentiating firms by their TFP-R rather than their production efficiency indicates firms with better (worse) market positions can mitigate the negative impacts of the shock more (less).

Smallholder access to purchased seeds in the presence of pervasive market imperfections and rainfall shocks: panel data evidence from Malawi and Ethiopia

Seed purchasing enables farmers to respond to adverse events that may cause chronic and temporary seed insecurity by allowing them to exploit opportunities associated with accessing new seeds. However, as with other inputs, seed purchasing is complicated by pervasive market imperfections and climate risk common in Sub-Sahara Africa. This study uses balanced household panel data for Malawi (2010–2018) and Ethiopia (2012–2016) and applies dynamic random effects Probit and Tobit models to assess how seed purchase decisions are affected by earlier participation in the market, lagged rainfall shocks, and historical climate variables. Our findings show that there are nonlinear effects of lagged seed purchase decisions on subsequent decisions with strong initial effects (weakening over time). For instance, initial maize seed purchase decisions are associated with about 11 and 22% higher probability of purchase and 1 and 2% higher shares of seed volumes purchased in later rounds in Malawi and Ethiopia, respectively. Seed purchase decisions also respond to climate variability and shocks. For instance, lagged drought shocks enhance subsequent maize purchase decisions in both countries. Historical average rainfall and temperature enhance maize seed purchase decisions in both countries. Overall, results point to state dependency on the demand side of the seed market, leading to selective access to purchased seeds. Also, seed purchase in smallholder farming is a liquidity and risk-dependent input choice. Policy efforts need to continue targeting reducing transaction costs and other barriers to entry into seed markets to enhance access to off-farm seed and support adaptation to rainfall shocks.

Climate change and sexual and reproductive health and rights research in low-income and middle-income countries: a scoping review

IntroductionThis study aimed to provide an overview of the research landscape and to identify research gaps linking climate change events and sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) in low-income...

Climate threat and price stability: A case study of Belize

AbstractIn recent years, there have been calls for policy makers to do more to fight climate change. Indeed, there are growing concerns that climate could exert a serious detrimental impact on financial stability, and thus the wider economy. Empirically, a limited number of studies have highlighted the inflationary effects of climate‐related variables. This study is an attempt to contribute to this literature. More specifically, the article investigates the dynamic inflationary effect of climate in a case study of Belize. Results derived from quarterly data, over the period 1994–2019, and local linear projections suggest that inflation responds positively and significantly to temperature and rainfall shocks. Further disaggregation of inflation into its subindices reveals that this increase in inflation is mainly driven by the effect of climate on food, alcohol and tobacco, household, hospitality, and other goods and services inflation. The findings remain robust even when accounting for temperature and rainfall deviations from historical means. The results suggest that, while inflation control might not be a core element of monetary policy in Belize, policy makers should be aware that these climate‐related effects may have ramifications for the Belize economy.

Long-term effects of early life rainfall shocks on foundational cognitive skills: Evidence from Peru

Global warming is changing precipitation patterns, particularly harming communities in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). Whilst the long-term effects of being exposed to rainfall shocks early in life on school-achievement tests are well-established, there is little population-based evidence from LMICs on the mechanisms through which these shocks operate. Executive functions (EFs) are key for children’s learning abilities. This paper analyses the effects of early exposure to rainfall shocks on four foundational cognitive skills (FCSs), including EFs that have been found to be key predictors of educational success. These skills were measured via a series of tablet-based tasks administered in Peru as part of the Young Lives longitudinal study (YLS). We combine the YLS data with gridded data on monthly precipitation to generate monthly, community-level rainfall shock estimates. The key identification strategy relies on temporary climatic shocks being uncorrelated with other latent determinants of FCSs development. Our results show significant negative effects of early life exposure to rainfall shocks on EFs—especially, on working memory—measured in later childhood. We also find evidence of rainfall shocks decreasing households’ abilities to invest in human capital, which may affect both FCSs and domain-specific test scores. Finally, there is suggestive, but not conclusive, evidence that a conditional-cash-transfer program providing poor households with additional financial resources might partially offset the effects of the rainfall shocks.

Labor Suply and Rainfall Shocks in Rural Ethiopia

Labor Suply and Rainfall Shocks in Rural Ethiopia

Shocks and Stability of Risk and Time Preferences among Poor Rural Households in Ethiopia

Abstract This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

From disastrous heat waves to extreme rains: Effects of weather shocks on entrepreneurship

Using household panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and satellite re-analysis temperature and rainfall data, we present the first study to examine the impact of weather shocks on entrepreneurship. We measure temperature and rainfall shocks at the postcode level, and find that an increase in weather shocks in the previous period is associated with a decline in the probability of self-employment in the next period. We find suggestive evidence that health, cognitive functioning and economic activity are mechanisms through which temperature shocks transmit to entrepreneurship. The key insight of this study is that it is less likely that those directly affected by climate events will act entrepreneurially, at least in the short run.

Quantifying the Effect of Change in Rainfall Dynamics on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

Agricultural production has clearly gained acceptance, as a crucial approach to meeting the food consumption needs of Nigeria’s growing population as well as an important requirement for achieving food security. Hence, the objective of this paper is to quantify the effect of change in rainfall dynamics on agricultural output in Nigeria employing a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model and using data from the 2019 Social Accounting Matrix. The results revealed that rainfall shocks had an adverse effect on the four components of agricultural output considered such as crops, livestock, fishery and forestry in the short and long term. It also had a negative effect on aggregate agricultural output compared to the baseline scenario. Therefore, public policy towards investing heavily in rain harvesters cannot be overemphasized. There is the need for policy efforts towards targeted interventions that provide an enabling environment and the necessary infrastructures for private investments in agriculture, address climatic risks and build resilience among farmers.

Basic Farmland Construction in China: A cost‐effective investment for agricultural productivity and disaster resistance

AbstractStarting in 2006, China launched a project to carry out Basic Farmland Construction in 116 representative counties. The objective of this project was to enhance agricultural productivity. China invested 30 billion yuan in this project from 2006 to 2013. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, this study estimates that Basic Farmland Construction increased per capita agricultural output by 6.3%, crop sown area by 5%, and agricultural mechanization by 7.3%. The total benefits of the project far exceeded the total investments. By incorporating with rainfall shocks, this study finds that the project could mitigate most of the damage from droughts and floods.

Nutrition Matters: Numeracy, Child Nutrition and Schooling Efficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Long Run

School enrolment has increased at an unprecedented scale in Sub-Saharan Africa but learning and the associated education efficiency have not. Given that resources are limited, the efficient use of inputs is of utmost importance for sustainable development. Hence, we investigate whether improvements in children’s nutrition can improve learning and hence efficiency. To assess this relationship, we employ average female height as our proxy for nutrition during childhood. For learning, we estimate numeracy and efficiency using a linearized version of the Whipple Index. Our data is at the subnational level focusing on the birth decades from 1950 to 1999. To deal with the endogeneity of nutrition, we use an instrumental variable approach. Our instrument is negative rainfall shocks during childhood which can adversely affect nutrition. We find that better nutrition increases education efficiency. Therefore, investments in nutrition can advance self-sustaining long-term growth based on human capital in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The effects of precipitation shocks on rural labour markets and migration

ABSTRACT The welfare of workers in rural areas is highly affected by agricultural output volatility, caused in part by weather shocks. A volatile source of income is an important factor in inducing migration. While the impact of rainfall shocks on migration is well studied, the channels through which these shocks affect migration are underexplored. In this paper we study the hypothesis that the labour market is an avenue that carries the effect of precipitation shocks on migration. This paper first establishes the effect of precipitation shocks on the labour market. We use individual-level data combined with station-based precipitation data of Iran at the rural-agglomeration level in a fixed-effects panel-data model to find that workers in agriculture and industry sectors decrease their hours of work in response to negative shocks. We then use a linear probability model to show that negative shocks almost double the probability of migration and labour-migration for young men in Iran. Estimations of this paper indicate that as unemployment rate in rural areas increases, migration out of those regions rises as well. Additionally, controlling for the local labour market conditions at origin captures the impact of shocks on migration, implying the labour market is a channel through which precipitation shocks affect migratory decisions.

Impact of extreme rainfall shocks on the educational performance of vulnerable urban students: evidence from Brazil

Purpose This paper examines the impact of extreme rainfall shocks on the performance in test scores of students living near at-risk urban areas in Brazil.Design/methodology/approach To identify the causal effect, we consider the exogenous variation of rainfall at the municipal level conditioned on the distance from the school to risk areas and the rainfall intensity in the school months.Findings The results suggest that extreme precipitation shocks, defined as a shock of at least three months of high-intensity rainfall, have an adverse impact on both math and language performance. Through a heterogeneous effects analysis, we find that the impact varies by student gender, with girls being more affected. In addition, among students who study near at-risk areas, those with better previous school performance and higher socioeconomic status are more negatively affected.Originality/value Our results suggest that extreme weather events can increase the differences in human capital accumulation between the population living near risk areas and those living more distant from these areas.

Effects of weather shocks on multidimensional rural poverty: evidence for Colombia

ABSTRACT The increasing frequency of extreme weather events related to climate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector negatively. Therefore, rural populations in developing countries, most of which lack access to risk-coping mechanisms, are likely to suffer a reduction in income, consumption, and capital accumulation, increasing rural poverty. In this study, we assess the impact of weather shocks on rural poverty using an adjusted multidimensional poverty index in a developing country highly vulnerable to climate change. We also explore the mediation effect of crop yields identified by previous literature as a potential transmission mechanism from weather shocks to poverty. Finally, we analyze a set of farming practices that may mitigate the consequences of droughts on yields. The aggregate estimations indicate that droughts increase poverty rates by 6 percentage points, whereas the excessive rainfall shock does not have a statistically significant effect. We further find that crop yields are a transmission mechanism through which droughts impact rural poverty for some crops. However, droughts’ direct effect is larger than its mediating effect through yields. Findings suggest that agricultural practices, such as using farm equipment and fertilizer, can help attenuate droughts’ negative effects on yields for plantains and cassava.

Labor supply responses to rainfall shocks

AbstractAgricultural production in developing countries is heavily rainfall dependent. Any unexpected variation in rainfall can affect the welfare of households. Using unit record data from India, this paper shows that households can insure against agricultural productivity (rainfall) shocks. Evidence suggests that they do so by varying the time allocation of individual members to different activities, particularly to regular wage work and human capital accumulation. There is a gender‐differentiated aspect to this response. Rainfall shocks adversely affect women's human capital accumulation. While there is no evidence that households use participation in NREGS to insure against rainfall shocks, the availability of NREGS helps reduce the impact of rainfall shocks on human capital accumulation.

Social Protection and Foundational Cognitive Skills during Adolescence: Evidence from a Large Public Works Program.

Many low- and middle-income countries have introduced public works programs (PWPs) to fight poverty. This paper provides the first evidence that children from families who benefit from PWPs show increased foundational cognitive skills. The results, based on unique tablet-based data collected as part of a long-standing longitudinal survey, show positive associations between participation in the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) in Ethiopia during childhood with long-term memory and implicit learning, and suggestive evidence for working memory. These associations appear to be strongest for children whose households were still PSNP participants in the year of data collection. Evidence suggests that the association with implicit learning may be operating partially through children's time reallocation away from unpaid labor responsibilities, while the association with long-term memory may in part be due to the program's success in remediating nutritional deficits caused by early-life rainfall shocks.

Sustaining enrolment when rains fail: School feeding, rainfall shocks and schooling in Malawi

Emerging evidence suggests that rural children, especially older girls in low-income countries, are at risk of being withdrawn from school when adverse weather-related events occur. Identifying actions that mitigate the adverse effects of weather shocks on schooling, therefore, is critical for sustaining equitable human capital formation. In this paper, we use four waves of household and community panel survey data, merged with long-term, spatially explicit rainfall data to investigate whether access to school feeding programmes (SFP) in Malawi supports primary school enrolment when negative rainfall shocks occur. We find some evidence that access to SFP increases enrolment for older children when their households experience anomalously low rainfall conditions compared to those without SFP. The positive associations of SFP on enrolment persist when we consider historical shocks over longer periods. When we disaggregate by sex, however, there are no differentials. The findings suggest that SFPs, already a common intervention in many contexts, may have modest potential for improving primary school completion rates, educational advancement and human capital formation in the context of a rapidly changing climate.

The role of social protection in mitigating the effects of rainfall shocks. Evidence from Ethiopia

The role of social protection in mitigating the effects of rainfall shocks. Evidence from Ethiopia

Positive Rainfall Shocks, Overoptimism, and Agricultural Inefficiency in China

Positive Rainfall Shocks, Overoptimism, and Agricultural Inefficiency in China