The current and expected expansion of agriculture in the drylands of Mexico, together with the decrease in precipitation occurring in the country, likely affect ecosystem processes and will bring great challenges for the suitability of rainfed agriculture for smallholder farmers. Here, we assessed metrics of the soil C, N, and P cycles, as well as soil microbial diversity, under rainfed maize and common bean cropping in arid and semiarid regions of central Mexico. The soil enzymatic vector angles of cultivated plots in both regions were above 45°, suggesting P limitation for microbial growth and crop productivity. Although changes were not observed in the intensity of this P-limitation with aridity, we found a negative effect of drought increase on the concentration of soil organic C and total N, with consequences for the C, N, and P balance in soils. Increasing aridity leads to the homogenization of microbial diversity. Considering a scenario in which decreases in mean annual precipitation would uncouple the biogeochemical cycles and homogenize soil biodiversity, the ecological implications could be an increase in the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystems to drought, with negative consequences for the suitability of rainfed agriculture in the drylands of central Mexico.
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