Railway Investment Research Articles

EXAMINING THE EFFICIENCY OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RAILWAY FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION DURING A SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD

The aim of this study is to determine the efficiency values of the Republic of Turkey State Railways (TCDD) in national and international freight transportation between 2010 and 2019. Additionally, the study aims to identify the years in which the company operated more efficiently, process this information, and provide reference years and recommendations to relevant institutions.Since railway investment costs are very high, the efficient use of resources is of great importance. This study is significant in terms of guiding the efficient use of railway resources. Moreover, the use of different input and output variables over a specific time period distinguishes this study from other scientific research, as it incorporates both national and international data. For efficiency measurement, output (tonne-kilometres) and input variables (amount of freight transported, main line length, and number of freight wagons) were used, following the relevant literature. The data used in the research were obtained from the activity reports of TCDD and the Turkish Statistical Institute. DEAP (Data Envelopment Analysis Program) software, based on Productivity Time Analysis, was used to analyze the research data. As a result, the average efficiency in national railway freight transport decreased by 1.8%, while the average efficiency in international railway freight transport decreased by 22.4%. The reference year for both types of transport was 2010. Although efficiency in international railway freight transport showed partial improvement in certain years, it generally exhibited a continuous downward trend.

LCC-based approach for design and requirement specification for railway track system

AbstractLife cycle cost (LCC) analysis is an important tool for effective infrastructure management. It is an essential decision support methodology for selection, design, development, construction, maintenance and renewal of railway infrastructure system. Effective implementation of LCC analysis will assure cost-effective operation of railways from both investment and life-cycle perspectives. A major setback in the successful implementation of LCC analysis by infrastructure managers is the availability of relevant, reliable, and structured data. Different cost estimation methods and prediction models have been developed to deal with this challenge. However, there is a need to include condition degradation models as an integral part of LCC model to account for possible changes in the model variables. This article presents an approach for integrating degradation models with LCC model to study the impact of change in design speed on key decision criteria such as track possession time, service life of track system, and LCC. The methodology is applied to an ongoing railway investment project in Sweden to investigate and quantify the impact of design speed change from 250 to 320 km/h. The results of the studied degradation models show that the intended change in speed corresponds to correction factor values between 0.79 and 0.96. Using this correction factor to compensate for changes in design speed, the service life of ballasted track system is estimated to decrease by an average of 15%. Further, the expected value of LCC for the route under consideration will increase by 30%. The outcome of this study will be used to support the design and requirement specification of railway track system for the project under consideration.

The risk of additional branch works in the construction of railway projects

Every decision or action taken as part of a construction project involves risk. Unforeseen branch works that may occur during the construction investment are the so-called additional work. They cause risk, both for the contractor and the investor. Skilful management of this risk may lead to minimizing the change in the investment duration or minimizing the change in the cost of the contractual amount. The work proposes a method of analysing the risk of industrial works that may occur during additional works in railway construction investments. A constructed Bayesian network based on the risk component of industrial works was used for the analysis. Bayesian networks are listed as one of the 31 techniques suggested for risk analysis in accordance with the ISO 31010 standard, which enables the correct analysis of the examined problem with satisfactory accuracy. During the construction of the network, historical data was obtained from completed and settled railway infrastructure construction projects, and 125 unique records corresponding to additional works were identified. The created Bayesian network combines technological aspects resulting from the specificity of the implementation of branch works in railway construction projects with a practical assessment of their risk. The proposed network model allows for risk analysis by defining various event scenarios, and has high application capacity resulting from the ease of applying its results in practice in the implementation of railway investments.

Revealing The Economic Viability Of Railway Investments (Case Study: Restoring Your Railway Programme, United Kingdom)

Revealing The Economic Viability Of Railway Investments (Case Study: Restoring Your Railway Programme, United Kingdom)

Application of the DEMATEL method for quantitative analysis of risk factors for railway investments in Poland.

The paper presents the results of research on the influence of risk factors on the implementation of railway investments in Poland (build stage) and deals with a detailed diagnosis of relation between factors. The application of DEcision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for the analyses allowed to develop a cause-and-effect model of key factors and analyse the importance of the factors. Eleven factors identified in eariel studies as the most important risk factors were examined. It was found that the factors: errors in the preparation of tender documents (10.38%), errors in project documentation (10.02%), improperly estimated time of completion of the investment by the Employer (9.82%), internal regulations of PKP Polskie Koleje Państwowe S.A. (Polish State Railways) not coordinated with the provisions of contracts (9.51%) have the highest degree of importance. Factors: too many external institutions involved in the investment process and internal regulations of PKP Polskie Koleje Państwowe S.A. (Polish State Railways) not coordinated with the provisions of contracts, have the greatest net impact on the other factors. The relations between the factors and factors importance are valuable knowledge for engineers, enabling the project to be implemented according to the planned schedule and investment cost.

Economic Analysis of High-Speed Railways: A Holistic Methodological Approach

The most controversial issue regarding a high- speed railway investment is the huge capital cost, and the main question is whether its benefits will be worth the huge investment costs. High-speed railways have long planning processes and face great risks. Therefore, a holistic approach has been required under conditions of uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to unify the methods for determining the huge rail investment costs. This paper investigated the economic analysis of high- speed railways as a part of a new silk iron road corridor, in terms of both passenger and freight railway transport between Europe and Asia. In this context, a benefit-cost evaluation of the Ankara-Sivas high-speed railway as a part of the backbone railway line of Turkey's Edirne- Kars high-speed railway corridor has been carried out. A holistic methodological method is presented for evaluating the benefit-cost analysis of both high-speed and freight railways. The economic analysis results show that in cross-continental countries, network effects must be taken into consideration when evaluating the high- speed railway's benefit-cost analysis.

Koleją w nowoczesność – plany budowy połączeń kolejowych i ich realizacja na terenie Europy Środkowej w XIX i XX w.

The aim of this article is, based on the situation in Poland (according to the borders of 1945), Czechoslovakia (according to the borders of 1938), Austria-Hungary (within the borders from 1867 to 1918 and their immediate successors), i.e. the 19th century parts of Prussia (later Germany), Russia and Austria, to indicate (using selected examples) the method, circumstances, factors of planning the railway network and similarly the circumstances of their implementation. Therefore, an indirect aim will be also to present the differences and similarities between these countries in order to ultimately show the areas of the relationship between railways and modernity. The ‘hopes’ accompanying these plans and the ‘emotions’ absolutely present during implementation are also subject to analysis. All applicants for further railway investments expressed hopes of a ‘miraculous’ impact of the railways on economic and social life (in that order). However, this impact also varied depending on the time when the investment was made. Certainly, the existence of this phenomenon (and the associated danger of overinvestment) was recognised as early as the seventh and eighth decades of the 19th century, and it was pointed out in the analyses of the projects submitted that they would not provide a return of the sums invested. Nevertheless, such projects were not always abandoned. There was no similar consideration in many cases in interwar Poland. After 1918, Czechoslovakia basically pursued only politically-driven projects (as it had faced earlier overinvestment and invested in modern motorisation) – including those aimed at integrating the two parts of the country. Polish decision-makers (and communities), on the other hand, were still at this time largely pinning their hopes on the beneficial impact of the railways on economic development.

Risk Assessment Modeling of Urban Railway Investment and Financing Based on Improved SVM Model for Advanced Intelligent Systems

A risk assessment method for urban railway investment and financing based on an improved SVM model under big data is proposed. First, the inner product in the traditional SVM is replaced by a kernel function to obtain a more accurate non-linear SVM, and a classifier with high classification accuracy is achieved by finding the optimal separating hyperplane. Then, a risk index system is constructed based on the grounded theory combining with intuitionistic fuzzy sets, interval intuitionistic fuzzy sets, weighted averaging operators and the distance measure, and the selection method of assessment indexes is analyzed based on the statistical methods. Finally, the SVM model with fuzzy membership is obtained by fuzzifying the input samples of the SVM based on the given rules of fuzzy membership design. The results show that the maximum relative error between the final test results and the actual value is 0.316%, and the minimum relative error is 0.133% with three different test sets being tested in the proposed method, which can accurately assess the investment.

‘A land made fit for tourists’: Thomas Cook, tourism promotion, and colonial development in Iraq, 1920–1932

ABSTRACT This article focuses on the British travel firm Thomas Cook & Son's operations in Iraq, threading together the histories of antiquities-focused tourism and development from the country's establishment as a League of Nations Mandate in 1920 through its independence in 1932. It situates the firm's rhetoric within two principles undergirding mandate-era colonial development: development of the land, achieved through the modernisation of transportation infrastructure, and the development of the Iraqi people ‘along native lines’. Journalists, tourism promoters, politicians and travel writers lauded investments in Iraq's railways, automobile transportation and civil aviation infrastructure. They presented visions of Iraq's development as inextricable from its place within regional and global transportation networks. In the same period, a fascination with antiquities resulted in an outpouring of media about ancient Iraqi civilisations. Thomas Cook's cohesive publishing output – from guidebooks and travelogues to ephemeral written and visual sources, including pamphlets, magazines and advertisements – reveals how the company presented Iraq as both a country boasting the latest in modern transportation and hospitality facilities as well as an exotic land of perpetual antiquity. Thomas Cook not only replicated colonial discursive strategies, but also made them legible within the cultural (and seemingly ‘apolitical’) register of leisure travel.

Innovation in Railway Investment Financing Through The Land Value Capture Earmarks Scheme

The government of Indonesia is currently working to improve infrastructure, with a particular focus on the railway sector, in order to make transportation more accessible and affordable for all citizens. Therefore, this study aims to determine the reliability of alternative financing for the Land Value Capture (LVC) scheme, especially through earmarks (land tax increase). This scheme is very interesting to examine due to its great implementation potential in Indonesia. In this study, the primary data were obtained from direct measurements in the field of information derived from accessibility factors. Meanwhile, the secondary data were in the form of land price data in the NJOP (Tax Object Sale Value), as well as site structure, and its environment. From this context, the land price forecasting model used the Hedonic method developed into a Log-Log equation and was analyzed by using multiple regression statistical techniques with iterations, to obtain the best model. The LVC calculation also used the calculation formula for Land and Building Tax (PBB), as stated in Governor of Jakarta Regulation No. 77 of 2014. Based on the results, the development stage of the land price forecasting model showed that the independent variables with the most significant contribution (α 0.005) were dominated by accessibility-related factors. In the residential, office, and commercial areas, the maximum increase in land value ranged from IDR 696.8 thousand/m2-IDR 30.5 million/m2, IDR 1.25 million/m2-IDR 41.4 million/m2, and IDR 595.9 thousand/m2-IDR 24.4 million/m, respectively. These estimations were observed with an average increase in the earmarks of all stations at 39.84%. Regarding the initial year of the project operation, the LVC value also obtained the maximum coefficient of the tax difference scheme from 21 stations at IDR 471,941,540,397/year.

Systematic literature review: Financing system in railway transportation

Trains are one of the least polluting modes of mass transportation. The creation of railway infrastructure aims to promote connection and mobility to spur economic growth. The purpose of this research is to provide an overview of railway funding around the world. The method is based on examining the literature on railway funding over the last 20 years. This research aims to provide an overview of railway funding issues and solutions and answers to challenges using research trends. This study's approach consists of three steps: bibliometric analysis with mapping through the keywords "rail" and "finance" from the Scopus account to get Scopus literature on railway financing, mapping using Vosviewer, and analyzing. The review included 506 articles published between 2008 and 2022 with the keywords "financing" or "finance" and "rail" "engineering" and "economic." The findings demonstrated that the high cost of infrastructure development and railway operations necessitated alternative creative financing to avoid taxing the state. Railway investment is significant, but revenue will be substantial in the future. Thus the PPP financing scheme is one of the alternative methods for acquisition, operating, and maintenance financing in railway transportation.

Research on the Derivative Rule and Estimation Methods of Intelligent High-Speed Railway Investment Estimation

Taking the investment estimation of intelligent construction of high-speed railway as the research object, based on the historical data of investment of similar high-speed railway projects, this paper builds an explanatory structure model, establishes an system dynamic (SD) model of investment estimation of intelligent construction of high-speed railway, and puts forward suggestions for supplementing the labor value theory and improving the value-added tax. The paper carries out in-depth research and analysis in the following aspects: 1) the list of influencing factors for investment estimation of intelligent construction of high-speed railway in the feasibility study stage is constructed, and the interpretative structural model (ISM) is constructed to sort out the relationship between the influencing factors; 2) the SD model of intelligent construction cost estimation of high-speed railway is established to improve the accuracy of investment estimation of intelligent high-speed railway construction; 3) put forward suggestions and schemes for improving investment estimation content of intelligent construction of high-speed railway under high intelligence; 4) improve and supplement the labor value theory and the value-added tax base.

Railroad investment and regional disparity: Public expenditure on transport infrastructure in France, 1837–57

Regional equality was an important issue in French public investment in railroads from 1837, when the French State first intervened financially to facilitate railroad construction to 1857, when the main railroads were completed. Based on an analysis of parliamentary debates, this article aims to examine the weight of regional balancing in the planning of main railroads and their financial model. Using documents from various Chambers of commerce, we then examine the effect of regional equality on local stakeholders’ opinion about the best financing model to adopt for the railroad plan. Finally, we will analyse the data from budgets of the Ministry of Public Works to trace the evolution of regional disparities in public spending from 1837 to 1857.

The Effects of High-Speed Rail on the Reduction of Air Traffic Congestion

Commercial air services in Europe have experienced a spectacular growth in the last 15 years. From 1985 – 2000, the main European airports doubled their operations. Moreover, in the last 20 years, the number of regional airlines grew from 32 in 1980 to 78 in 1999.This growth has resulted in a continuous increment of delays in air services. In 1986, 12.5 percent of air flights were delayed 15 or more minutes; the figure nearly doubled to 23 percent in 1998. In summer 1999, the average delay was more than 26 minutes. It is, therefore, not surprising that the congestion costs borne by European airlines have increased from $2,600 million in 1991 to $4,900 million in 1999.This article presents results of studies undertaken for the Ministry of Public Works in Spain on the effect of new railway investments in reducing slot number needs at Madrid Airport. A total of 54,000 slots are compared to other studies carried out in France (40,000 slots in Paris-Charles de Gaulle) and Germany (20,000 slots in Frankfurt).

Turkmenistan in Eurasian railway geopolitics

ABSTRACT Central Asian railways are usually discussed in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative, and most studies deal with the main railway line at the heart of this grandiose China-backed project. Turkmenistan represents a somewhat extraordinary example due to the state’s massive investments in railways, which have almost doubled the length of the country’s rail network in recent decades. The building of the new railways was aimed at linking Turkmen regions together with direct internal connections instead of relying on complicated cross-border passages. It was also intended to make Turkmenistan a transport hub of the Eurasian transport system. Based on the landlocked countries concept and using the analysis of available statistics and transport flows along the two main rail corridors passing through Turkmenistan (east–west and north–south), the paper investigates the gap between these ambitious goals and the actual results, including the reasons for these processes. The emergence of strong competition in the form of other (more efficient) routes has signified a setback for the expansion of Turkmenistan’s railway network.

Impact of urban railway announcements on housing market: Preponderance of pre-construction and post-construction phase effect of urban railway projects

The increasing concerns arising from measuring the effect of metro railway line projects on the sale prices of surrounding housing within urban spaces have been addressed in a vast number of related studies. However, potential changes in these effects with regard to short-run and long-run equilibriums have not been studied satisfactorily in developing countries. Therefore, this paper measures the effect of metro railway line investments on housing sale prices with respect to two different stages of related projects: pre-construction stage and post-construction stage, in two similar study areas in İstanbul, Turkey. The prices of houses are modeled using hedonic price models. The results indicate that housing sale prices before construction (announcement) of the metro railway line projects increase almost twofold after construction. In addition, the paper employs a before and after analysis to measure the effect of the different stages of metro railway line investments on housing sale prices. The results reveal that the average price increase of a housing unit in the pre-construction phase of the metro railway line project is 86,756.37 TL greater than the average price increase in the post-construction phase. Thus, the validity of the speculated effect of such urban railway investments on housing sale prices is justified.

Fulfilment of the Essential Requirements of the Control-command and Signalling Trackside Subsystem on the Railway Infrastructure of Transhipment Terminals

The implementation of many railway investments indicates as the main goal increasing the efficiency of the railway system, and thanks to its features it becomes easier to integrate it in the competitive transport market. Increasing the integration of the transport sector is one of the cornerstones of the completion of the internal market and rail is an important part of the transport sector moving towards sustainable mobility. The modernized railway lines, which are part of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) or European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) corridors, also constitute the network of rail freight corridors (RFC). Pursuant to the requirements of European law, setting the dates for implementing interoperability, the infrastructure of comprehensive networks will be forced to adapt to these requirements. Using the example of the control-command and signalling subsystem, this article outlines the scale of the problem related to the implementation of interoperability in relation to rail-road terminals constituting the comprehensive network of the RFC network. Keywords: core network, comprehensive network, certification, control-command and signalling subsystem, ETCS, GSM-R

Estimating the Benefits of Korea’s Intercity Rail Speed Increase Project: An Agent-Based Model Approach

In the cost–benefit analysis of urban transportation investment, a logsum-based benefit calculation is widely used. However, it is rarely applied to inter-regional transportation. In this study, we applied a logsum-based approach to the calculation of benefits for high-speed projects for inter-regional railways in Korea’s long-term transportation plan. Moreover, we applied a behavioral model in which an agent travels beyond the zones assumed by an aggregate model. In the case of South Korea, such a model is important for determining transportation priorities: whether to specialize in mobility improvement by investing in a high-speed railway project, such as the 300 km/h Korea Train eXpress (KTX), or to improve existing facilities, such as by building a relatively slower railroad (150–250 km/h) to enhance existing mobility and accessibility. In this context, if a new, relatively slow railroad were constructed adjacent to a high-speed railroad, the benefits would be negligible since the reduction in travel time would not sufficiently reflect accessibility improvements. Therefore, this study proposes the use of aggregate and agent-based models to evaluate projects to improve intercity railway service and conduct a case study with the proposed new methodology. A logsum was selected to account for the benefits of passenger cars on semi-high-speed and high-speed railroads simultaneously since it has been widely used to estimate the benefits of new modes or relatively slow modes. To calculate the logsum, this study used input data from both the aggregate and individual agent-based models, and found that an analysis of the feasibility of inter-regional railroad investment was possible. Moreover, the agent-based model can also be applied to inter-regional analysis. The proposed methods are expected to enable a more comprehensive evaluation of the transport system. In the case of the agent-based model, it is suggested that further studies undertake more detailed scenario analysis and travel time estimation.

Readership and Railway Accidents: John Herapath’s Railway Magazine

This essay explores the presentation of railway accidents in John Herapath’s Railway Magazine. While other papers published sensationalised accident reports and anti-railway pieces that relied on a dangerous image of the railway, the Railway Magazine crafted a sensibility founded on scientific rationality. Herapath reprinted the sensational reports in order to question their validity, thereby endorsing his own authority on railway matters and encouraging a similar sense of superiority amongst his readers. Ultimately, the Railway Magazine sought to tame accident reports in order to build confidence in the new transportation and promote investment in railways throughout Britain.

Method of Assessing the Risk of Implementing Railway Investments in Terms of the Cost of Their Implementation

Exceeding the approved budget is often an integral part of the implementation of construction projects, especially those where unforeseen threats may occur. Therefore, each construction investment should contain elements of risk forecasting, mainly in terms of the cost of its implementation. Only a small number of institutions apply effective cost control methods, taking into account the specifics of a given industry. Especially small construction companies that participate in the structure of the implementation of large construction projects as subcontractors. The article presents a method by which it is possible to determine, with certain probability, the final cost of railway construction investments carried out in Poland. The method was based on a reliable database of risk factors published in sources. In this article, the main presumptions of the original method are presented, which take into account the impact of potential, previously recognized, risks specific to railway investments, and enable project managers to relate them to the conditions where the implementation of a specific object is planned. The authors assumed that such a relatively simple method, supported by a suitable computational program, would encourage teams that plan to implement railway projects to use it and increase the credibility of their schedules.