Uncertainty In Radiative Forcing Research Articles

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021

Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.

Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing

Abstract. Aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty affects estimates of climate sensitivity and limits model skill in terms of making climate projections. Efforts to improve the representations of physical processes in climate models, including extensive comparisons with observations, have not significantly constrained the range of possible aerosol forcing values. A far stronger constraint, in particular for the lower (most-negative) bound, can be achieved using global mean energy balance arguments based on observed changes in historical temperature. Here, we show that structural deficiencies in a climate model, revealed as inconsistencies among observationally constrained cloud properties in the model, limit the effectiveness of observational constraint of the uncertain physical processes. We sample the uncertainty in 37 model parameters related to aerosols, clouds, and radiation in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the UK Earth System Model and evaluate 1 million model variants (different parameter settings from Gaussian process emulators) against satellite-derived observations over several cloudy regions. Our analysis of a very large set of model variants exposes model internal inconsistencies that would not be apparent in a small set of model simulations, of an order that may be evaluated during model-tuning efforts. Incorporating observations associated with these inconsistencies weakens any forcing constraint because they require a wider range of parameter values to accommodate conflicting information. We show that, by neglecting variables associated with these inconsistencies, it is possible to reduce the parametric uncertainty in global mean aerosol forcing by more than 50 %, constraining it to a range (around −1.3 to −0.1 W m−2) in close agreement with energy balance constraints. Our estimated aerosol forcing range is the maximum feasible constraint using our structurally imperfect model and the chosen observations. Structural model developments targeted at the identified inconsistencies would enable a larger set of observations to be used for constraint, which would then very likely narrow the uncertainty further and possibly alter the central estimate. Such an approach provides a rigorous pathway to improved model realism and reduced uncertainty that has so far not been achieved through the normal model development approach.

Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts

Abstract. An observed southward shift in tropical rainfall over land between 1950 and 1985, followed by a weaker recovery post-1985, has been attributed to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and cooling of the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere. We might therefore expect models that have a strong historic hemispheric contrast in aerosol forcing to simulate a further northward tropical rainfall shift in the near-term future when anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions will predominantly warm the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate this paradigm using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of transient coupled ocean–atmosphere climate simulations that span a range of aerosol radiative forcing comparable to multi-model studies. In the 20th century, in our single-model ensemble, we find no relationship between the magnitude of pre-industrial to 1975 inter-hemispheric anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and tropical precipitation shifts. Instead, tropical precipitation shifts are associated with major volcanic eruptions and are strongly affected by internal variability. However, we do find a relationship between the magnitude of pre-industrial to 2005 inter-hemispheric anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and future tropical precipitation shifts over 2006 to 2060 under scenario RCP8.5. Our results suggest that projections of tropical precipitation shifts will be improved by reducing aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty, but predictive gains may be offset by temporary shifts in tropical precipitation caused by future major volcanic eruptions.

Low‐Volatility Vapors and New Particle Formation Over the Southern Ocean During the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition

AbstractDuring summer, the Southern Ocean is largely unaffected by anthropogenic emissions, which makes this region an ideal place to investigate marine natural aerosol sources and processes. A better understanding of natural aerosol is key to constrain the preindustrial aerosol state and reduce the aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty in global climate models. We report the concentrations of gaseous sulfuric acid, iodic acid, and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) together with a characterization of new particle formation (NPF) events over a large stretch of the Southern Ocean. Measurements were conducted on board the Russian icebreaker Akademik Tryoshnikov from January to March 2017. Iodic acid is characterized by a particular diurnal cycle with reduced concentration around noon, suggesting a lower formation yield when solar irradiance is higher. Gaseous MSA does not have a diurnal cycle and measured concentrations in gas and condensed phase are compatible with this species being primarily produced via heterogeneous oxidation of dimethyl sulfide and subsequent partitioning into the gas phase. We also found that NPF in the boundary layer is mainly driven by sulfuric acid but it occurred very rarely over the vast geographical area probed and did not contribute to the cloud condensation nuclei budget in a directly observable manner. Despite the near absence of NPF events in the boundary layer, Aitken mode particles were frequently measured, supporting the hypothesis of a free tropospheric source. Iodic acid and MSA were not found to participate in nucleation, however, MSA may contribute to aerosol growth via heterogeneous formation in the aqueous phase.

A long-term study of cloud residuals from low-level Arctic clouds

Abstract. To constrain uncertainties in radiative forcings associated with aerosol–cloud interactions, improved understanding of Arctic cloud formation is required, yet long-term measurements of the relevant cloud and aerosol properties remain sparse. We present the first long-term study of cloud residuals, i.e. particles that were involved in cloud formation and cloud processes, in Arctic low-level clouds measured at Zeppelin Observatory, Svalbard. To continuously sample cloud droplets and ice crystals and separate them from non-activated aerosol, a ground-based counter-flow virtual impactor inlet system (GCVI) was used. A detailed evaluation of the GCVI measurements, using concurrent cloud particle size distributions, meteorological parameters, and aerosol measurements, is presented for both warm and cold clouds, and the potential contribution of sampling artefacts is discussed in detail. We find an excellent agreement of the GCVI sampling efficiency of liquid clouds using two independent approaches. The 2-year data set of cloud residual size distributions and number concentrations reveals that the cloud residuals follow the typical seasonal cycle of Arctic aerosol, with a maximum concentration in spring and summer and a minimum concentration in the late autumn and winter months. We observed average activation diameters in the range of 58–78 nm for updraught velocities below 1 m s−1. A cluster analysis also revealed cloud residual size distributions that were dominated by Aitken mode particles down to around 20–30 nm. During the winter months, some of these small particles may be the result of ice, snow, or ice crystal shattering artefacts in the GCVI inlet; however, cloud residuals down to 20 nm in size were also observed during conditions when artefacts are less likely.

Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols are dominant drivers of historical monsoon rainfall change. However, large uncertainties in the radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosol emissions, as well as the dynamical response to this forcing, lead to uncertainty in the simulated monsoon response. We use historical simulations from the “SMURPHS” project, run using HadGEM3-GC3.1, in which the time-varying aerosol emissions are scaled by factors from 0.2 to 1.5 to explore the monsoon sensitivity to historical aerosol forcing uncertainty (present-day versus preindustrial aerosol forcing in the range −0.38 to −1.50 W m−2). The hemispheric asymmetry in emissions generates a strong relationship between scaling factor and both hemispheric temperature contrast and meridional location of tropical rainfall. Averaged over the period 1950–2014, increasing the scaling factor from 0.2 to 1.5 reduces the hemispheric temperature contrast by 0.9 ∘C, reduces the tropical summertime land–sea temperature contrast by 0.3 ∘C and shifts tropical rainfall southwards by 0.28∘ of latitude. The result is a reduction in global monsoon area by 3 % and a reduction in global monsoon intensity by 2 %. Despite the complexity of the monsoon system, the monsoon properties presented above vary monotonically and roughly linearly across scalings. A switch in the dominant influence on the 1950–1980 monsoon rainfall trend between greenhouse gases and aerosol is identified as the scalings increase. Regionally, aerosol scaling has a pronounced effect on Northern Hemisphere monsoon rainfall, with the strongest influence on monsoon area and intensity located in the Asian sector, where local emissions are greatest.

Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone concentrations are sensitive to natural emissions of precursor compounds. In contrast to existing assumptions, recent evidence indicates that terrestrial vegetation emissions in the pre-industrial era were larger than in the present day. We use a chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to show that revised inventories of pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions lead to an increase in simulated pre-industrial ozone concentrations, decreasing the estimated pre-industrial to present-day tropospheric ozone radiative forcing by up to 34 % (0.38 to 0.25 W m−2). We find that this change is sensitive to employing biomass burning and biogenic emissions inventories based on matching vegetation patterns, as the co-location of emission sources enhances the effect on ozone formation. Our forcing estimates are at the lower end of existing uncertainty range estimates (0.2–0.6 W m−2), without accounting for other sources of uncertainty. Thus, future work should focus on reassessing the uncertainty range of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing.

Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of climate that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the persistent uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing limits our understanding of how much the global mean temperature will respond to near-term reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. We quantify the model and scenario uncertainty in global mean aerosol radiative forcing up to 2050 using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble for emission reduction scenarios consistent with three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We then use a simple climate model to translate the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing into uncertainty in global mean temperature projections, accounting additionally for the potential correlation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Near-term aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty alone causes an uncertainty window of around 5 years (2034–2039) on the projected year of exceeding a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures for a middle of the road emissions scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). A correlation between aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity would increase the 1.5 °C exceedance window by many years. The results highlight the importance of quantifying aerosol radiative forcing and any relationship with climate sensitivity in climate models in order to reduce uncertainty in temperature projections.

The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty

Abstract. Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol–cloud interaction radiative forcing (RFaci) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7 % using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8 % reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RFaci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20 % of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RFaci is around 0.17 W m−2 weaker (less negative) with 95 % credible values ranging from −2.51 to −1.17 W m−2 (standard deviation of −2.18 to −1.46 W m−2). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements.

Overview of the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition: Study of Preindustrial-like Aerosols and Their Climate Effects (ACE-SPACE)

AbstractUncertainty in radiative forcing caused by aerosol–cloud interactions is about twice as large as for CO2 and remains the least well understood anthropogenic contribution to climate change. A major cause of uncertainty is the poorly quantified state of aerosols in the pristine preindustrial atmosphere, which defines the baseline against which anthropogenic effects are calculated. The Southern Ocean is one of the few remaining near-pristine aerosol environments on Earth, but there are very few measurements to help evaluate models. The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition: Study of Preindustrial-like Aerosols and their Climate Effects (ACE-SPACE) took place between December 2016 and March 2017 and covered the entire Southern Ocean region (Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans; length of ship track >33,000 km) including previously unexplored areas. In situ measurements covered aerosol characteristics [e.g., chemical composition, size distributions, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations], trace gases, and meteorological variables. Remote sensing observations of cloud properties, the physical and microbial ocean state, and back trajectory analyses are used to interpret the in situ data. The contribution of sea spray to CCN in the westerly wind belt can be larger than 50%. The abundance of methanesulfonic acid indicates local and regional microbial influence on CCN abundance in Antarctic coastal waters and in the open ocean. We use the in situ data to evaluate simulated CCN concentrations from a global aerosol model. The extensive, available ACE-SPACE dataset (https://zenodo.org/communities/spi-ace?page=1&size=20) provides an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate models and to reduce the uncertainty in radiative forcing associated with the natural processes of aerosol emission, formation, transport, and processing occurring over the pristine Southern Ocean.

Ensembles of Global Climate Model Variants Designed for the Quantification and Constraint of Uncertainty in Aerosols and Their Radiative Forcing

AbstractTropospheric aerosol radiative forcing has persisted for many years as one of the major causes of uncertainty in global climate model simulations. To sample the range of plausible aerosol and atmospheric states and perform robust statistical analyses of the radiative forcing, it is important to account for the combined effects of many sources of model uncertainty, which is rarely done due to the high computational cost. This paper describes the designs of two ensembles of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model‐U.K. Chemistry and Aerosol global climate model and provides the first analyses of the uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and their causes. The first ensemble was designed to comprehensively sample uncertainty in the aerosol state, while the other samples additional uncertainties in the physical model related to clouds, humidity, and radiation, thereby allowing an analysis of uncertainty in the aerosol effective radiative forcing. Each ensemble consists of around 200 simulations of the preindustrial and present‐day atmospheres. The uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing in our ensembles is comparable to the range of estimates from multimodel intercomparison projects. The mean aerosol effective radiative forcing is −1.45 W/m2 (credible interval of −2.07 to −0.81 W/m2), which encompasses but is more negative than the −1.17 W/m2 in the 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and −0.90 W/m2 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The ensembles can be used to reduce aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty by challenging them with multiple measurements as well as to isolate potential causes of multimodel differences.

Infrared dust aerosol optical depth retrieved daily from IASI and comparison with AERONET over the period 2007–2016

Aerosols represent one of the dominant uncertainties in radiative forcing, partly because of their very high spatiotemporal variability, a still insufficient knowledge of their microphysical and optical properties, or of their vertical distribution. A better understanding and forecasting of their impact on climate therefore requires precise observations of dust emission and transport. Observations from space offer a good opportunity to follow, day by day and at high spatial resolution, dust evolution at global scale and over long time series. Infrared observations allow retrieving dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) as well as the mean dust layer altitude, daytime and nighttime, over oceans and over continents, in particular over desert. Moreover, coarse mode particles are preferentially observed in the infrared, when, in the visible, both larger and finer particles are observed making the distinction between the two modes difficult. Therefore, they appear complementary to observations in the visible. In this study, a decade of the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) on board European Satellite Metop-A observations, from July 2007 to December 2016, has been processed pixel by pixel, using a “Look-Up-Table” (LUT) physical approach. Important improvements have been brought to our former approach in order to extend it to: 1) daytime retrieval, 2) mid-latitude retrieval, 3) retrieval at the IASI pixel resolution, 4) near real time retrieval (day-1). Moreover, over continents, surface characteristics (pressure, temperature, as well as emissivity spectrum) are now better accounted for. Here, a particular attention is given to the validation of the IASI-retrieved AOD through comparisons with the Spectral Deconvolution Algorithm (SDA) 500nm coarse mode AOD observed at 70 ground-based Aerosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sites during the 114months processed. Even if such a comparison requires converting AOD from infrared to visible, inherently leading to significant uncertainties, the two AOD datasets compare well, with an overall correlation of 0.8. For a large majority of sites, correlation ranges from 0.7 to 0.9. Sites with highest correlation are well distributed within the “dust belt” (Sahara, Arabian Peninsula, Mediterranean basin, India and also the Caribbean). Correlations obtained for East-Asia are in general smaller, which might be due to a more complex dust structure (i.e., impact of pollution) and partly due to an increase of the AERONET coarse-mode AOD uncertainty. More generally, the good overall agreement between our restitutions and AERONET AOD demonstrates the ability of infrared sounders to infer dust properties, which opens interesting perspective for a synergy with visible observations.

The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP): Measurements and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty

AbstractThe largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration, and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, to create an extensive global dataset of aerosol in situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and to develop new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low-resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modelers and nonspecialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they are biased to polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model–data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.

On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple “equifinal” models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model−observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

Investigation of Refractory Black Carbon-Containing Particle Morphologies Using the Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2)

An important source of uncertainty in radiative forcing by absorbing aerosol particles is the uncertainty in their morphologies (i.e., the location of the absorbing substance on/in the particles). To examine the effects of particle morphology on the response of an individual black carbon-containing particle in a Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2), a series of experiments was conducted to investigate black carbon-containing particles of known morphology using Regal black (RB), a proxy for collapsed soot, as the light-absorbing substance. Particles were formed by coagulation of RB with either a solid substance (sodium chloride or ammonium sulfate) or a liquid substance (dioctyl sebacate), and by condensation with dioctyl sebacate, the latter experiment forming particles in a core-shell configuration. Each particle type experienced fragmentation (observed as negative lagtimes), and each yielded similar lagtime responses in some instances, confounding attempts to differentiate particle morphology using current SP2 lagtime analysis. SP2 operating conditions, specifically laser power and sample flow rate, which in turn affect the particle heating and dissipation rates, play an important role in the behavior of particles in the SP2, including probability of fragmentation. This behavior also depended on the morphology of the particles and on the thermochemical properties of the non-RB substance. Although these influences cannot currently be unambiguously separated, the SP2 analysis may still provide useful information on particle mixing states and black carbon particle sources.Copyright 2015 American Association for Aerosol Research

Upward adjustment needed for aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty

Upward adjustment needed for aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty

Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty

Abstract. The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

Abstract. We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W) of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2), nitrate (−0.2 W m−2), organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2), and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

The single scattering properties of the aerosol particles as aggregated spheres

The light scattering and absorption properties of anthropogenic aerosol particles such as soot aggregates are complicated in the temporal and spatial distribution, which introduce uncertainty of radiative forcing on global climate change. In order to study the single scattering properties of anthorpogenic aerosol particles, the structures of these aerosols such as soot paticles and soot-containing mixtures with the sulfate or organic matter, are simulated using the parallel diffusion limited aggregation algorithm (DLA) based on the transmission electron microscope images (TEM). Then, the single scattering properties of randomly oriented aerosols, such as scattering matrix, single scattering albedo (SSA), and asymmetry parameter (AP), are computed using the superposition T-matrix method. The comparisons of the single scattering properties of these specific types of clusters with different morphological and chemical factors such as fractal parameters, aspect ratio, monomer radius, mixture mode and refractive index, indicate that these different impact factors can respectively generate the significant influences on the single scattering properties of these aerosols. The results show that aspect ratio of circumscribed shape has relatively small effect on single scattering properties, for both differences of SSA and AP are less than 0.1. However, mixture modes of soot clusters with larger sulfate particles have remarkably important effects on the scattering and absorption properties of aggregated spheres, and SSA of those soot-containing mixtures are increased in proportion to the ratio of larger weakly absorbing attachments. Therefore, these complex aerosols come from man made pollution cannot be neglected in the aerosol retrievals. The study of the single scattering properties on these kinds of aggregated spheres is important and helpful in remote sensing observations and atmospheric radiation balance computations.

Combining Bayesian methods and aircraft observations to constrain the HO<sup>.</sup> + NO<sub>2</sub> reaction rate

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone is the third strongest greenhouse gas, and has the highest uncertainty in radiative forcing of the top five greenhouse gases. Throughout the troposphere, ozone is produced by radical oxidation of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2). In the upper troposphere (8–10 km), current chemical transport models under-estimate nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations. Improvements to simulated NOx production from lightning have increased NO2 predictions, but the predictions in the upper troposphere remain biased low. The upper troposphere has low temperatures (T < 250 K) that increase the uncertainty of many important chemical reaction rates. This study constrains uncertain reaction rates by combining model predictions with measurements from the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-North America observational campaign. The results show that the nitric acid formation rate, which is the dominant sink of NO2 and radicals, is currently over-estimated by 22% in the upper troposphere. The results from this study suggest that the temperature sensitivity of nitric acid formation is lower than currently recommended. Since the formation of nitric acid removes nitrogen dioxide and radicals that drive the production of ozone, the revised reaction rate will affect ozone concentrations in upper troposphere impacting climate and air quality in the lower troposphere.