Abstract Understanding when and where severe hailstorms occur is key to managing the serious risk they pose. Radar products, such as the maximum expected size of hail (MESH), are often used to form a severe hail climatology. However, the challenges of relating reflectivity measured aloft to severe hail at the surface mean these climatologies have unknown uncertainty. Here, we quantify the uncertainty of radar observations of severe hailstorms by deriving a probabilistic interpretation of MESH within a fully Bayesian framework calibrated using reports from Australia’s Severe Storms Archive in southeast Queensland. Moreover, our novel approach accounts for the spatially varying (under)reporting rate in the region. Despite the popularity of using MESH thresholds to distinguish severe hail events, our results suggest that these thresholds are less sharp than previously believed and question their interpretation. Furthermore, we quantify the spatial variability in the severe hail reporting rate and suggest that, even over the most densely populated areas in the region, the reporting rate may be as low as 53%. Finally, we produce a hail climatology that has a similar magnitude to existing radar-based climatologies but with smoother and more realistic spatial gradients. Our method is generalizable to many other datasets within and beyond severe weather by enabling the principled usage of reports even when the absence of a report does not necessarily indicate the event did not occur. Significance Statement Severe hailstorms are one of Australia’s costliest natural perils. This work aims to improve how we use radar to understand when and where these storms occur. Although radar is a popular tool in this pursuit, it is challenging to link reflectivity aloft to hail at the ground. Rather than using a binary threshold on a radar-based parameter to distinguish severe hail, we instead treat radar data as a predictor of the probability of severe hail, estimating this probability by concurrently estimating the reporting rate of severe hail. This work sheds new light on how we might reinterpret radar data to improve our forecasting and understanding of severe hail. Moreover, our method is applicable to other severe weather hazards and even beyond climate science.
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