Quasi-biennial Oscillation Modulation Research Articles

Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon

Abstract. The Asian monsoon (AM) plays a key role in the transport of water vapour to the lower stratosphere and contributes significantly to the wet phase of the annual global stratospheric water vapour cycle. Although it is known that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is one of the main drivers of the interannual variability in the AM water vapour, the physical mechanisms responsible for this variability remain unclear. Here we have used daily microwave limb sounder data for the period 2005–2020 to characterize the QBO signature on the lower stratosphere AM water vapour during the boreal summer. We show that the QBO has the strongest impact during August, when QBO westerly minus QBO easterly differences may reach 1 ppmv at 100 hPa, although a significant signature is also observed during July. We find that the region whose temperature controls the QBO signal on water vapour over the AM differs between July and August. In July, when the key region is over the tropical Indian Ocean, the QBO modulation of the AM water vapour occurs in phase with the signal over the Equator, whereas in August, when the key region is at the subtropics, over the southern edge of the monsoon, the signal over the AM is opposite to that over the Equator. Our results reveal that the QBO signal on the temperature on the south side of the AM anticyclone, which ultimately has an impact on AM water vapour, is, in turn, modulated by the QBO impact on tropical clouds. Thus, we find that the QBO signature on clouds over the eastern Indian Ocean gives rise to Rossby wave trains that produce variations in the circulation over the southern side of the AM anticyclone such that weaker anticyclone over this region generates an increase in water vapour, and vice versa.

QBO modulation of MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific: impact of preceding MJO phases

This study examines the influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections in the North Pacific using ERA5 data. It is found that the Rossby wave trains induced by MJO phase 6–7 exhibit greater strength and robustness during the westerly QBO winter (WQBO) than during the easterly QBO winter (EQBO), although the MJO itself is weaker during the former. This counter-intuitive dependency of MJO teleconnections on the QBO is attributed to the preexisting MJO teleconnections prior to the MJO phase 6–7. The MJO phase 6–7 is more frequently preceded by stronger MJO phase 3–4 during the EQBO than during the WQBO. The preceding MJO phase 3–4 teleconnections, which have opposed signs to the MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections, result in a considerable attenuation of the MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections by destructive interference. This result is supported by linear model experiments. The subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models also indicate improved prediction skills of MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections during the WQBO compared to the EQBO. These results suggest that enhanced MJO activities during the EQBO do not necessarily result in stronger and more robust MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific.

ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate

The causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) is not only affected by Arctic sea ice anomaly but can also be modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using reanalysis data and hindcasts from the decadal prediction system version 4, here we show that both cold and warm winters occur over Eurasia when the Barents–Kara Sea sea ice is abnormally low. Warm winters occur during the La Niña-easterly QBO-low sea ice (LANINA-EQBO-LICE) years and cold winters during the neutral ENSO-neutral QBO (NENSO-NQBO)-LICE and El Niño (ELNINO)-NQBO-LICE years. During the LANINA-EQBO-LICE years, weakened upward-propagating planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere strengthen the Arctic SPV and then weaken the Aleutian low and Siberian high, creating conditions favorable for Eurasian warming. The atmospheric responses are opposite in the NENSO-NQBO-LICE and ELNINO-NQBO-LICE years. This implies that care should be taken in using Arctic sea ice alone as the precursor to predict boreal winter climate.

Phase Unlocking and the Modulation of Tropopause-Level Trace Gas Advection by the Quasibiennial Oscillation.

Open questions about the modulation of near-surface trace gas variability by stratosphere-troposphere tracer transport complicate efforts to identify anthropogenic sources of gases such as CFC-11 and N2O and disentangle them from dynamical influences. In this study, we explore one model's modulation of lower stratospheric tracer advection by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal winds at 50hPa. We assess instances of coherent modulation versus disruption through phase unlocking with the seasonal cycle in the model and in observations. We quantify modeled advective contributions to the temporal rate of change of stratospheric CFC-11 and N2O at extratropical and high-latitudes by calculating a transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) budget across isentropic surfaces from a 10-member WACCM4 ensemble simulation. We find that positive interannual variability in seasonal tracer advection generally occurs in the easterly QBO phase, as in previous work, and briefly discuss physical mechanisms. Individual simulations of the 10-member ensemble display phase-unlocking disruptions from this general pattern due to seasonally varying synchronizations between the model's repeating 28-month QBO cycle and the 12-month seasonal cycle. We find that phase locking and unlocking patterns of tracer advection calculations inferred from observations fall within the envelope of the ensemble member results. Our study bolsters evidence for variability in the interannual stratospheric dynamical influence of CFC-11 near-surface concentrations by assessing the QBO modulation of lower stratospheric advection via synchronization with the annual cycle. It identifies a likely cause of variations in the QBO influence on tropospheric abundances.

The QBO Modulation on CO Distribution in the UTLS Over the Asian Monsoon Region During Boreal Summer

Using the Microwave Limb Sounding measurements and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis product, we have investigated the response of carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio within the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA) region to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the potential dynamical mechanisms behind it. The results showed that the mixing ratio of CO within the ASMA is significantly higher at both 100 hPa and 147 hPa in the east phase of QBO (EQBO) years than in the west phase of QBO (WQBO) years, especially in the eastern part of the ASMA. The CO difference between EQBO and WQBO years is consistent with the interannual variation of the location and strength of the ASMA. Specifically, during the EQBO years, the area of the ASMA reduces to the southeast in the upper troposphere, while the westerly jet on the north side of the anticyclone and the southerly winds on the west side of the anticyclone both strengthen. These variations are associated with tropospheric circulation anomalies. The ascending motions over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are enhanced during the EQBO years, which are correlated with the relatively high CO at 100 hPa. Consistently, an anomalous cyclonic circulation is found at 500 hPa over the TP when the QBO is on its east phase, which promotes the convergence of air mass and carries CO from the surface to the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS).

Evidence for energetic particle precipitation and quasi-biennial oscillation modulations of the Antarctic NO<sub>2</sub> springtime stratospheric column from OMI observations

Abstract. Observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite are used to study the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP, as proxied by the geomagnetic activity index, Ap) on the Antarctic stratospheric NO2 column in late winter–spring (August–December) during the period from 2005 to 2017. We show that the polar (60–90∘ S) stratospheric NO2 column is significantly correlated with EPP throughout the Antarctic spring, until the breakdown of the polar vortex in November. The strongest correlation takes place during years with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO modulation may be a combination of different effects: the QBO is known to influence the amount of the primary NOx source (N2O) via transport from the Equator to the polar region; and the QBO phase also affects polar temperatures, which may provide a link to the amount of denitrification occurring in the polar vortex. We find some support for the latter in an analysis of temperature and HNO3 observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, on Aura). Our results suggest that once the background effect of the QBO is accounted for, the NOx produced by EPP significantly contributes to the stratospheric NO2 column at the time and altitudes when the ozone hole is present in the Antarctic stratosphere. Based on our findings, and the known role of NOx as a catalyst for ozone loss, we propose that as chlorine activation continues to decrease in the Antarctic stratosphere, the total EPP-NOx needs be accounted for in predictions of Antarctic ozone recovery.

The Global Teleconnection Signature of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Modulation by the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

AbstractRecent research has suggested that the tropical and extratropical character of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) depends on the state of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). With this in mind, we use both reanalysis and a global climate model (CESM2‐WACCM) to analyze the global character of upper tropospheric‐lower stratospheric geopotential height anomalies connected with the MJO and quantify dependencies of these teleconnections on the state of the QBO. We find that the global teleconnection signature of the MJO depends upon the state of the QBO. Globally, within reanalysis the fraction of 20‐ to 90‐day 250‐hPa geopotential height variance linked to the MJO is largest during boreal winter and summer for easterly QBO phases and smallest during westerly QBO phases of boreal winter. The difference between QBO phases is mostly driven by changes in the tropical signature of the MJO, although during boreal winter the Northern Hemispheric teleconnections are particularly more prominent during easterly QBO phases. Otherwise, the QBO modulation of extratropical MJO teleconnections is mainly realized through changes in the locations of the teleconnections. A QBO‐MJO relationship is also apparent within CESM2‐WACCM but is weaker than that observed. This extratropical modulation implies that the regions that benefit from increased subseasonal predictability due to the MJO may also change as a function of the QBO. In a broader sense, these findings emphasize that knowledge of the tropical stratospheric state, particularly as it relates to the QBO, is important for understanding the connections between the MJO and the extratropics.

ENSO Modulation of the QBO: Results from MIROC Models with and without Nonorographic Gravity Wave Parameterization

AbstractObservational studies have shown that, on average, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) exhibits a faster phase progression and shorter period during El Niño than during La Niña. Here, the possible mechanism of QBO modulation associated with ENSO is investigated using the MIROC-AGCM with T106 (~1.125°) horizontal resolution. The MIROC-AGCM simulates QBO-like oscillations without any nonorographic gravity wave parameterizations. A 100-yr integration was conducted during which annually repeating sea surface temperatures based on the composite observed El Niño conditions were imposed. A similar 100-yr La Niña integration was also conducted. The MIROC-AGCM simulates realistic differences between El Niño and La Niña, notably shorter QBO periods, a weaker Walker circulation, and more equatorial precipitation during El Niño than during La Niña. Near the equator, vertical wave fluxes of zonal momentum in the uppermost troposphere are larger and the stratospheric QBO forcing due to interaction of the mean flow with resolved gravity waves (particularly for zonal wavenumber ≥43) is much larger during El Niño. The tropical upwelling associated with the Brewer–Dobson circulation is also stronger in the El Niño simulation. The effects of the enhanced tropical upwelling during El Niño are evidently overcome by enhanced wave driving, resulting in the shorter QBO period. The integrations were repeated with another model version (MIROC-ECM with T42 horizontal resolution) that employs a parameterization of nonorographic gravity waves in order to simulate a QBO. In the MIROC-ECM the average QBO periods are nearly identical in the El Niño and La Niña simulations.

Tropical Deep Convection Impact on Southern Winter Stationary Waves and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The impact of tropical deep convection on southern winter stationary waves and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been investigated in a long (210 year) climate model simulation and in ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1979–2018. Model results reveal that tropical deep convection over the region of its climatological maximum modulates high-latitude stationary planetary waves in the southern winter hemisphere, corroborating the dominant role of tropical thermal forcing in the generation of these waves. In the tropics, deep convection enhancement leads to wavenumber-1 eddy anomalies that reinforce the climatological Rossby–Kelvin wave couplet. The Rossby wave propagates toward the extratropical southern winter hemisphere and upward through the winter stratosphere reinforcing wavenumber-1 climatological eddies. As a consequence, stronger tropical deep convection is related to greater upward wave propagation and, consequently, to a stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation and a warmer polar winter stratosphere. This linkage between tropical deep convection and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter polar vortex is also found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, model results indicate that the enhancement of deep convection observed during the easterly phase of the QBO (E-QBO) gives rise to a similar modulation of the southern winter extratropical stratosphere, which suggests that the QBO modulation of convection plays a fundamental role in the transmission of the QBO signature to the southern stratosphere during the austral winter, revealing a new pathway for the QBO–SH polar vortex connection. ERA-Interim corroborates a QBO modulation of deep convection; however, the shorter data record does not allow us to assess its possible impact on the SH polar vortex.

Effect of Energetic Electron Precipitation on the Northern Polar Vortex: Explaining the QBO Modulation via Control of Meridional Circulation

AbstractEnergetic electron precipitation (EEP) affects the high‐latitude middle atmosphere by producing NOX compounds that destroy ozone. Earlier studies have shown that in the wintertime polar stratosphere, increased EEP enhances the westerly wind surrounding the pole, the polar vortex. This EEP effect has been found to depend on the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial winds, but the mechanism behind this modulation has so far remained unresolved. In this study we examine the atmospheric effect of EEP and its modulation by QBO using the corrected electron flux measurements by NOAA/POES satellites and the ERA‐Interim reanalysis data of zonal wind, temperature, and ozone in winter months of 1980–2016. We verify the EEP‐related strengthening of the polar vortex, warming (cooling) in the upper (lower) stratosphere and a reduction of ozone mass mixing ratio in the polar stratosphere. We also verify that the EEP effect is stronger and more significant especially in late winter, when the QBO at 30 hPa is easterly. We find here that the difference in the EEP effect between the two QBO phases is largest using a roughly 6‐month lag for QBO. We demonstrate that ozone mass mixing ratio in the lower polar stratosphere, a proxy for the strength of Brewer‐Dobson circulation, is also larger during QBO‐E than QBO‐W, with the difference maximizing when the QBO is lagged by 6 months. Our findings indicate that the modulation of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation by QBO controls how the EEP affects the polar vortex.

On the QBO modulation in the frequency of occurrence of pre noon F3 layers over the dip equatorial location of Thiruvananthapuram

Using the ionosonde observations, over Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 77oE, 0.5oN dip lat.), India, for a period of 20 years (1990–2009), the present study reveals the presence of quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) in the pre noon F3 layer occurrence percentage. The presence of a strong QBO modulation in the occurrence of pre noon F3 layers is observed during the period from 1992 to 2000 beyond which it is rather weak/nonexistent. The wavelet periodogram analysis indicates the fact that F3 occurrences are more during the eastward phase of MQBO and less during the westward phase of MQBO.

Decadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation: Effects of different solar and terrestrial drivers

Northern Hemisphere winter circulation is affected by both solar and terrestrial forcings. El-Niño events and volcanic eruptions have been shown to produce a negative and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signature, respectively. Recent studies show a positive NAO signature related to both geomagnetic activity (proxy for solar wind driven particle precipitation) and sunspot activity (proxy for solar irradiance). Here the relative role of these four different drivers on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation is studied using a statistical analysis of observational and reanalysis data during 1868–2014. The phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is used to study driver signals in different stratospheric conditions. Moreover, the effects are separated for early/mid- and late winter. Our findings suggest a stratospheric mediation of the ENSO signal to the Atlantic side, which is delayed and modulated by the QBO unlike the signal in the Pacific side. The positive NAO by volcanic activity is preferentially obtained in the westerly QBO. We also find a substantial QBO modulation for geomagnetic activity and late winter sunspot activity, which favours a stratospheric pathway and the top-down mechanisms. However, signal in the North Pacific produced by early/mid-winter sunspot activity remain rather similar in different QBO phases and supports a direct forcing from the troposphere by the bottom-up sunspot mechanism.

Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. Teleconnections between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Northern Hemisphere zonally averaged zonal winds, mean sea level pressure (mslp) and tropical precipitation are explored. The standard approach that defines the QBO using the equatorial zonal winds at a single pressure level is compared with the empirical orthogonal function approach that characterizes the vertical profile of the equatorial winds. Results are interpreted in terms of three potential routes of influence, referred to as the tropical, subtropical and polar routes. A novel technique is introduced to separate responses via the polar route that are associated with the stratospheric polar vortex, from the other two routes. A previously reported mslp response in January, with a pattern that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation under QBO westerly conditions, is confirmed and found to be primarily associated with a QBO modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. This mid-winter response is relatively insensitive to the exact height of the maximum QBO westerlies and a maximum positive response occurs with westerlies over a relatively deep range between 10 and 70 hPa. Two additional mslp responses are reported, in early winter (December) and late winter (February/March). In contrast to the January response the early and late winter responses show maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at ∼ 20 and ∼ 70 hPa respectively, but are relatively insensitive to the QBO winds in between (∼ 50 hPa). The late winter response is centred over the North Pacific and is associated with QBO influence from the lowermost stratosphere at tropical/subtropical latitudes in the Pacific sector. The early winter response consists of anomalies over both the North Pacific and Europe, but the mechanism for this response is unclear. Increased precipitation occurs over the tropical western Pacific under westerly QBO conditions, particularly during boreal summer, with maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at 70 hPa. The band of precipitation across the Pacific associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts southward under QBO westerly conditions. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based analysis suggests that this ITCZ precipitation response may be particularly sensitive to the vertical wind shear in the vicinity of 70 hPa and hence the tropical tropopause temperatures.

Quasi‐biennial oscillation of the ionospheric wind dynamo

AbstractThe interannual variation of the ionospheric solar quiet (Sq) current system is examined. A dense magnetometer network over Japan enables the accurate determination of the central position of the northern Sq current loop or the Sq current focus, during 1999–2015. It is found that the Sq focus latitude undergoes an interannual variation of ±2° with a period of approximately 28 months, similar to the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO‐like variation of Sq is particularly evident during 2005–2013. No corresponding interannual variability is found in solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. Comparisons with tidal winds, derived from a whole‐atmosphere model, reveal that the QBO‐like variation of the Sq current focus is highly correlated with the amplitude variations of migrating and nonmigrating diurnal tides in the lower thermosphere. The results suggest that the stratospheric QBO can influence the ionospheric wind dynamo through the QBO modulation of tides.

Quasi-biennial oscillation signatures in the diurnal tidal winds over Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil

Mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds obtained by meteor radar over Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), Brazil, have been used to investigate the interannual variability of the diurnal tidal (DT) wind amplitude. The monthly DT displays year to year variations and their amplitudes are strongest during the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at the 30 hPa level. This can be observed in all seasons in the meridional component, whilst in the zonal component the signal is clearer during austral autumn, when the diurnal tide is strongest in this latitude. The spectrum obtained from the deseasonalized amplitudes shows a peak near 26 months in the meridional component, which can be associated to the stratospheric QBO. The QBO modulation of the DT amplitude shows a quasi-decadal variation, and it is stronger during the maximum of the solar cycle.

Properties of the Long-Term Oscillations in the Middle Atmosphere Based on Observations from TIMED/SABER Instrument and FPI over Kelan

The properties of the long-term oscillations in the middle atmosphere have been investigated using the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature data and Fabry–Perot interferometer (FPI) data. Results for SABER temperature show that the semiannual oscillation (SAO) has three amplitude maxima at altitudes of 45, 75, and 85 km, respectively, and shows prominent seasonal asymmetries there. The SAOs in the upper mesosphere (75 km) are out of phase with those in the mesopause (85 km) in the tropical regions, which can generate an enhancement of 11 K on average at each equinox, contributing to the lower mesospheric inversion layer (MIL). It is shown that stronger enhancement can be found at the spring equinox than at the autumn equinox. The triennial oscillation (TO) is significant in the tropical region. The spectral peak of the TO is probably a sub-peak of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and is due to modulation of QBO. In addition, there may be potential interaction of the TO with SAO at 85 km at the equator. The relation between ENSO and TO has also been discussed. The ENSO signal may modulate the amplitude of the TO, mainly in the lower stratosphere. The annual oscillation (AO) and SAO are analyzed over Kelan by FPI data. Generally, the amplitudes of FPI wind are smaller than those of the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM07). The comparison between FPI and TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI) winds shows relatively large discrepancy. This may be due to the tidal aliasing in the nighttime results derived from the FPI data. Results also show that the algorithm to derive FPI temperature needs improvements.

Low‐frequency oscillations of the gravity wave energy density in the lower atmosphere at low latitudes revealed by U.S. radiosonde data

AbstractWe adopted 14 year (from 1998 to 2011) radiosonde data from 16 stations at latitudes between 14.33°S to 29.37°N to investigate the low‐frequency oscillations of inertial gravity wave energy densities (including kinetic energy density, potential energy density, and total energy density) in the lower atmosphere from 2 km to 30 km. Apparent signatures of 11 year solar cycle and quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) were found in the gravity wave energy densities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, respectively. Detailed analyses suggested that the 11 year oscillation and QBO of gravity wave activity might be due to the 11 year oscillation of convection activity and zonal wind QBO modulation, respectively. Besides, the gravity wave energy also showed a 35.2 month oscillation in the lower stratosphere, which might be generated by the interaction between the QBO (with the period of 26.7 months), and the 11 year solar cycle, while more possible causes are the direct modulation from the background zonal wind. Our results showed that the QBO signature in gravity wave total energy density could extend northward to over 20°N in the Northern Hemisphere, while the 11 year solar cycle in gravity wave activity could only extend to lower than 7.5°N. The oscillation with the period of 35.2 months may be a prolonged QBO in both gravity wave activity and background zonal wind.

Seasonal evolution of the QBO‐induced wave forcing and circulation anomalies in the northern winter stratosphere

AbstractDiagnostics of wave‐mean‐flow and wave‐wave interactions in isentropic coordinates are analyzed regarding the mechanisms that govern the Holton‐Tan effect (HTE), whereby the tropical quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the northern winter stratospheric polar vortex. We find a clear seasonal evolution of a QBO modulation of Rossby waves and linear and nonlinear wave interactions, along with multiple mechanisms at work. In early winter, when the lower stratospheric QBO is easterly, there is enhanced upward stationary planetary‐wave activity in the subtropical to midlatitude lower stratosphere. These upward‐propagating waves are first refracted toward the zero‐wind line. Approximately 1 month later, poleward‐propagating wave anomalies appear at midlatitudes as a result of nonlinear wave interactions. The enhanced upward wave propagation appears to be due to a combination of the QBO influence on the latitudinal location of the zero‐wind line and the increased midlatitude baroclinicity associated with the QBO‐induced meridional circulation. This is further aided by a gradual poleward shift over the winter of the middle‐stratospheric waveguide, refracting waves poleward. The associated wave breaking weakens the polar vortex and drives a stronger meridional circulation throughout the lower to middle stratosphere, contributing to the high‐latitude warming. It is additionally found that in late winter, the modified high‐latitude waveguide associated with the weaker polar vortex, consequently reduces upward‐propagating transient planetary waves at high latitudes while simultaneously enhancing upward‐propagating synoptic waves at midlatitudes. This highlights the need to view the HTE and its mechanisms as an evolving phenomenon throughout the winter.

Effect of geomagnetic activity on the northern annular mode: QBO dependence and the Holton-Tan relationship

Mutually conflicting results have been presented in earlier studies on the long-term relation of geomagnetic activity (GA) and the winter northern annular mode (NAM) and its modulation by quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Some studies have found a stronger positive relation in the easterly phase of the QBO, while in other studies a stronger positive relation was found in the westerly phase of the QBO. Using QBO reconstruction from the beginning of the twentieth century we find that the QBO modulation of the GA-NAM relation is temporally variable, which explains the earlier, seemingly differing results. Positive relation is found to be valid in the easterly QBO phase at 30 hPa for the whole twentieth century. We also find that the QBO at 30 hPa better represents the Holton-Tan relation for the surface circulation and that the Holton-Tan relation is only observed during early/mid winter, while an anti-Holton-Tan relation is found in the late winter for strong geomagnetic activity. These results emphasize the systematic response of NAM to particle precipitation during the entire twentieth century and underline the importance of considering the preconditioning of the atmosphere when studying the solar-related effects upon climate.

Interannual variability of the boreal summer tropical UTLS in observations and CCMVal-2 simulations

Abstract. During boreal summer the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) in the Northern Hemisphere shows a distinct maximum in water vapour (H2O) mixing ratios and a coincident minimum in ozone (O3) mixing ratios, both confined within the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). This well-known feature has been related to transport processes emerging above the convective systems during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), further modified by the dynamics of the AMA. We compare the ability of chemistry–climate models (CCMs) to reproduce the climatological characteristics and variability of H2O, O3, and temperature in the UTLS during the boreal summer with MIPAS satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses. By using a multiple linear regression model the main driving factors, the strength of the ASM, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are separated. The regression patterns related to ENSO show a coherent, zonally asymmetric signal for temperatures and H2O mixing ratios for ERA-Interim and the CCMs and suggest a weakening of the ASM during ENSO warm events. The QBO modulation of the lower-stratospheric temperature near the Equator is well represented as a zonally symmetric pattern in the CCMs. Changes in H2O and O3 mixing ratios are consistent with the QBO-induced temperature and circulation anomalies but less zonally symmetric than the temperature pattern. Regarding the ASM, the results of the regression analysis show for ERA-Interim and the CCMs enhanced H2O and reduced O3 mixing ratios within the AMA for stronger ASM seasons. The CCM results can further confirm earlier studies which emphasize the importance of the Tibetan Plateau/southern slope of the Himalayas as the main source region for H2O in the AMA. The results suggest that H2O is transported towards higher latitudes at the north-eastern edge of the AMA rather than towards low equatorial latitudes to be fed into the tropical pipe.