Quasi-quadrennial Research Articles

A spatiotemporal oscillator model for ENSO

A spatiotemporal oscillator model for El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is constructed based on the thermodynamics and thermocline dynamics. The model is enclosed by introducing a proportional relationship between the gradient in sea surface temperature (SST) and the oceanic zonal current and can be transformed into a standard wave equation that can be decomposed into a series of eigenmodes by cosine series expansion. Each eigenmode shows a spatial mode that oscillates with its natural frequency. The first spatial mode, that highlights SST anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the eastern and western Pacific—a fundamental characteristic of the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, oscillates with a natural period of around 4.6 years, consistent with the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) mode. The second spatial mode, that emphasizes SSTA contrast between the central and the eastern, western Pacific—a basic spatial structure of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, oscillates with a natural period of 2.3 years that is half of the first natural period. It is also consistent with the quasi-biennial (QB) modes. The combinations of the eigenmodes with different weights can feature complex spatiotemporal variations in SSTAs. In open ocean that is far away from the coastlines, the model can predict waves propagating both eastward and westward. Besides, the net surface heating further complicates the temporal variations by exerting forced frequencies. The model unifies the temporal and spatial variations and may provide a comprehensive viewpoint for understanding the complex spatiotemporal variations of ENSO.

Tracking the delayed response of the northern winter stratosphere to ENSO using multi reanalyses and model simulations

The concurrent effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the northern winter stratosphere have been widely recognized; however, the delayed effects of ENSO in the next winter after mature ENSO have yet to be confirmed in multi reanalyses and model simulations. This study uses three reanalysis datasets, a long-term fully coupled model simulation, and a high-top general circulation model to examine ENSO’s delayed effects in the stratosphere. The warm-minus-cold composite analyses consistently showed that, except those quick-decaying quasi-biennial ENSO events that reverse signs during July–August–September (JAS) in their decay years, ENSO events particularly those quasi-quadrennial (QQ) that persist through JAS, always have a significant effect on the extratropical stratosphere in both the concurrent winter and the next winter following mature ENSO. During the concurrent winter, the QQ ENSO-induced Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern corresponds to an anomalous wavenumber-1 from the upper troposphere to the stratosphere, which acts to intensify/weaken the climatological wave pattern during warm/cold ENSO. Associated with the zonally quasi-homogeneous tropical forcing in spring of the QQ ENSO decay years, there appear persistent and zonally quasi-homogeneous temperature anomalies in the midlatitudes from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere until summer. With the reduction in ENSO forcing and the PNA responses in the following winter, an anomalous wavenumber-2 prevails in the extratropics. Although the anomalous wave flux divergence in the upper stratospheric layer is still dominated by wavenumber-1, it is mainly caused by wavenumber-2 in the lower stratosphere. However, the wavenumber-2 activity in the next winter is always underestimated in the model simulations, and wavenumber-1 activity dominates in both winters.

Mid-infrared mapping of Jupiter’s temperatures, aerosol opacity and chemical distributions with IRTF/TEXES

Global maps of Jupiter’s atmospheric temperatures, gaseous composition and aerosol opacity are derived from a programme of 5–20 µm mid-infrared spectroscopic observations using the Texas Echelon Cross Echelle Spectrograph (TEXES) on NASA’s Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). Image cubes from December 2014 in eight spectral channels, with spectral resolutions of R ∼2000−12,000 and spatial resolutions of 2–4° latitude, are inverted to generate 3D maps of tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures, 2D maps of upper tropospheric aerosols, phosphine and ammonia, and 2D maps of stratospheric ethane and acetylene. The results are compared to a re-analysis of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) observations acquired during Cassini’s closest approach to Jupiter in December 2000, demonstrating that this new archive of ground-based mapping spectroscopy can match and surpass the quality of previous investigations, and will permit future studies of Jupiter’s evolving atmosphere. The visibility of cool zones and warm belts varies from channel to channel, suggesting complex vertical variations from the radiatively-controlled upper troposphere to the convective mid-troposphere. We identify mid-infrared signatures of Jupiter’s 5-µm hotspots via simultaneous M, N and Q-band observations, which are interpreted as temperature and ammonia variations in the northern Equatorial Zone and on the edge of the North Equatorial Belt (NEB). Equatorial plumes enriched in NH3 gas are located south-east of NH3-desiccated ‘hotspots’ on the edge of the NEB. Comparison of the hotspot locations in several channels across the 5–20 µm range indicate that these anomalous regions tilt westward with altitude. Aerosols and PH3 are both enriched at the equator but are not co-located with the NH3 plumes. The equatorial temperature minimum and PH3/aerosol maxima have varied in amplitude over time, possibly as a result of periodic equatorial brightenings and the fresh updrafts of disequilibrium material. Temperate mid-latitudes display a correlation between mid-IR aerosol opacity and the white albedo features in visible light (i.e., zones). We find hemispheric asymmetries in the distribution of tropospheric PH3, stratospheric hydrocarbons and the 2D wind field (estimated via the thermal-wind equation) that suggest a differing efficiency of mechanical forcing (e.g., vertical mixing and wave propagation) between the two hemispheres that we argue is driven by dynamics rather than Jupiter’s small seasonal cycle. Jupiter’s stratosphere is notably warmer at northern mid-latitudes than in the south in both 2000 and 2014, although the latter can be largely attributed to strong thermal wave activity near 30°N that dominates the 2014 stratospheric maps and may be responsible for elevated C2H2 in the northern hemisphere. A vertically-variable pattern of temperature and windshear minima and maxima associated with Jupiter’s Quasi Quadrennial Oscillation (QQO) is observed at the equator in both datasets, although the contrasts were more subdued in 2014. Large-scale equator-to-pole gradients in ethane and acetylene are superimposed on top of the mid-latitude mechanically-driven maxima, with C2H2 decreasing from equator to pole and C2H6 showing a polar enhancement, consistent with a radiatively-controlled circulation from low to high latitudes. Cold polar vortices beyond ∼60° latitude can be identified in the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature maps, suggesting enhanced radiative cooling from polar aerosols. Finally, compositional mapping of the Great Red Spot confirms the local enhancements in PH3 and aerosols, the north–south asymmetry in NH3 gas and the presence of a warm southern periphery that have been noted by previous authors.

The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) at the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) timescale. It is found that the cold tongue index (CTI) and the AAO index (AAOI) are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time, while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month lag-time. To further explore this relationship, complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies from 1951 to 2002. The results indicate that, during the ENSO cycle, there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 (GTW1) propagating eastward. With the traveling of GTW1, the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern mid-latitudes. Accordingly, three strong signals travel synchronously along the circum-South-Pacific path, and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector. Following the propagation of these signals, the AAO phase tends to be reversed progressively. As a result, there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and AAOI. It can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ timescale. It is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events, for which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern Pacific. On the other hand, the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific, such as the 1982–1983 ENSO event.

Coexistence of Equatorial Coupled Modes of ENSO*

Abstract To study the regimes of leading ocean–atmosphere coupled modes of relevance to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, a comprehensive eigenmode analysis of an intermediate coupled model linearized with respect to an array of basic states is performed. Different kinds of leading modes are found to coexist and become unstable under wide ranges of basic states and parameter conditions. In particular, the two most important modes have periods of around 4 and 2 yr. They are referred to as the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) and the quasi-biennial (QB) modes, respectively. The positive coupled feedback destabilizes and quantizes the near-continuous spectrum for the low-frequency modes of the upper-ocean dynamics, giving rise to these leading modes with distinct periodicities. The primary mechanism for the phase transition of the QQ mode is due to the slow oceanic dynamic adjustment of equatorial heat content, which is consistent with the simple conceptual recharge oscillator, whereas anomalous advection of sea surface temperature by equatorial zonal current anomalies plays a dominant role in the phase transition of the QB mode. The coexistence of these ENSO-like coupled modes under the present climate conditions may provide an explanation for the observed rich variations in ENSO behaviors.

Interannual Variability of Deep-Layer Hydrologic Memory and Mechanisms of Its Influence on Surface Energy Fluxes

Abstract The characteristics of deep-layer terrestrial memory are explored using observed soil moisture data and simulated soil temperature from the Illinois Climate Network stations. Both soil moisture and soil temperature are characterized by exponential decay in amplitude, linear lag in phase, and increasing persistence with depth. Using spectral analysis, four dominant low-frequency modes are identified in the soil moisture variability. These signals have periods of about 12, 17, 34, and 60 months, which correspond to annual cycle, (4/3) ENSO, quasi-biennial (QB) ENSO, and quasi-quadrennial (QQ) ENSO signals, respectively. For deep layers, the interannual modes are dominant over the annual cycle, and vice versa for the near-surface layer. There are inherently two mechanisms by which deep-layer moisture impacts the surface fluxes. First, its temporal variability sets the lower boundary condition for the transfer of moisture and heat fluxes from the surface. Second, this temporal variability influences the uptake of moisture by plant roots, resulting in the variability of the transpiration and, therefore, the entire energy balance. Initial results suggest that this second mechanism may be more predominant.

In search of an elusive Antarctic circumpolar wave in sea ice extents: 1978–1996

For ease in discerning an Antarctic circumpolar wave in the perimeter of the ice pack, we construct a time series of the sea ice extents (essentially the area within the ice perimeter) in 1-degree longitudinal sectors for the period 1978–1996, as observed with the multichannel microwave imagers on board the NASA Nimbus 7 and the DOD (Dept. of Defense) DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) F8. F11, and F13 satellites. After converting the time series into complex numbers by means of a Hilbert transform, we decompose the time series of the 360 sectors into its complex principal components (CPCs), effectively separating the spatial and temporal values. Then we decompose the real and imaginary parts of the temporal portions of the first three CPCs (complex principal compenents) by Empirical Mode Decomposition into their intrinsic modes, each representing a narrow frequency band, resulting in a collection of three CPCs for each intrinsic mode. Finally, we reconstruct the data in two different ways. First, we low-pass filter the data by combining all of the intrinsic modes of each CPC with periods longer than two years, which we designate as low-pass filtered. Next, we select the intrinsic mode of each CPC with periods of approximately four years, which we designate the quasiquadrennial (QQ) modes. The low-pass filtered time series shows eastward propagating azimuthal motion in the Ross and Weddell Seas, but no clearly circumpolar motion. The QQ time series, on the other hand, clearly shows castward propagating circumpolar waves, but with occasional retrograde motion to the west.

Modes of Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Pacific SST

Abstract The multichannel singular spectrum analysis has been used to characterize the spatio–temporal structures of interdecadal and interannual variability of SST over the Pacific Ocean from 20°S to 58°N. Using the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set from 1950 to 1993, three modes with distinctive spatio-temporal structures were found. They are an interdecadal mode, a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) oscillation with a period of 51 months, and a quasi-biennial (QB) oscillation with a period of 26 months. The interdecadal mode is a standing mode with opposite signs of SST anomalies in the North Pacific and in the tropical Pacific. The amplitude of this mode is larger in the central North Pacific than in the tropical Pacific. This mode contributes 11.4% to the total variance. It is associated with cooling in the central North Pacific and warming in the equatorial Pacific since around 1976–77. The QQ oscillation exhibits propagation of SST anomalies northeastward from the Philippine Sea and then eastward along 4...

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is used here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years)-1 and (4 years)-1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6–8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and δ13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

Quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial variability in the equatorial Pacific

Evaluation of competing El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) theories requires one to identify separate spectral peaks in equatorial wind and sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. To sharpen this identification, we examine the seasonal-to-interannual variability of these fields by the data-adaptive method of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA). M-SSA is applied to the equatorial band (4°N-4°S), using 1950–1990 data from the Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set. Two major interannual oscillations are found in the equatorial SST and surface zonal wind fields, U. The main peak is centered at about 52-months; we refer to it as the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) mode. Quasi-biennial (QB) variability is split between two modes, with periods near 28 months and 24 months. A faster, 15-month oscillation has smaller amplitude. The QQ mode dominates the variance and has the most distinct spectral peak. In time-longitude reconstructions of this mode, the SST has the form of a standing oscillation in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while the U-field is dominated by a standing oscillation pattern in the western Pacific and exhibits also slight eastward propagation in the central and western Pacific. The locations of maximum anomalies in both QB modes are similar to those of the QQ mode. Slight westward migration in SST, across the eastern and central, and eastward propagation of U, across the western and central Pacific, are found. The significant wind anomaly covers a smaller region than for the QQ. The QQ and QB modes together represent the ENSO variability well and interfere constructively during major events. The sharper definition of the QQ spectral peak and its dominance are consistent with the “devil's staircase” interaction mechanism between the annual cycle and ENSO.

Simulation of the Tropical Pacific Climate with a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model. Part II: Interannual Variability

Abstract Two multiyear simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM)-totaling 45 years-are used to investigate interannual variability at the equator. The model consists of the UCLA global atmospheric GCM coupled to the GFDL oceanic GCM, dynamically active over the tropical Pacific. Multichannel singular spectrum analysis along the equator identifies ENSO-like quasi-biennial (QB) and quasi-quadrennial (QQ) modes. Both consist of predominantly standing oscillations in sea surface temperature and zonal wind stress that peak in the central or east Pacific, accompanied by an oscillation in equatorial thermocline depth that is characterized by a phase shift of about 90° across the basin, with west leading east. Simulated interannual variability is weaker than observed in both simulations. One of these is dominated by the QB, the other by the QQ mode, although the two differ only in details of the surface-layer parameterizations.