Quasi-fiscal Deficits Research Articles

Policy implications of the World Bank utility staffing analysis in South Africa

In 2016, the World Bank released Working Paper No. 7788, “Financial Viability of Electricity Sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa: Quasi-Fiscal Deficits and Hidden Costs”. The paper concluded that virtually all Sub-Saharan electricity utilities were overstaffed and that Eskom in South Africa had the highest levels of overstaffing. This analysis reveals apparent problems in the Bank's overstaffing study and highlights the impact of the study on staffing decisions and electricity tariffs in South Africa due to perceptions of staffing inefficiency in Eskom's operations. The potential policy implications for utilities in developing countries are discussed.

Quasi-Fiscal Deficit Financing and (Hyper) Inflation

In the Argentine hyperinflations of 1989 and 1990, quasi-fiscal deficits were a major part of the problem. The Central Bank´s quasi-fiscal activities are financed directly by money printing but in some cases the monetary authority tries to sterilize the effect on the money supply by issuing debt or by increasing reserve requirements (it is not uncommon to pay interest on reserves when this happens). Thus, a new source of quasi-fiscal deficit arises, i.e. the interest payments on the Bank´s liabilities. When nominal interest rates are high and debt reaches unsustainable levels, the interest payments can take a life of their own leading to hyperinflation. The traditional explanation is that the Central Bank has to finance the quasi-fiscal deficit through the use of the inflation tax but as inflation increases money demand drops and there is a limit to how much revenue can be collected which is determined by a Laffer curve. Trying to finance a quasi-fiscal deficit beyond that limit (or any fiscal deficit for that matter) leads to hyperinflation. In this paper we demonstrate that very high inflation can arise even if money demand is perfectly inelastic with respect to inflation and the real value of interest payments is relatively low. The key insight is that if expected inflation is a function of the current state of the economy the Central Bank has an additional incentive to alter the future state which results in higher inflation today.

Quasi-Fiscal Deficits and Energy Conditionality in Selected CIS Countries

Quasi-fiscal deficits of public utility companies are common in all member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). They constitute a significant impediment to efficient resource allocation and endanger macroeconomic stability. This paper presents a simple framework for measuring and monitoring such deficits and highlights their macroeconomic relevance. It reviews the progress under IMF conditionality aimed at correcting these imbalances during 1993-2003. The paper suggests that the extensive conditionality under the IMF-supported programs has yielded only limited progress in reducing the energy sector`s financial imbalances. In conclusion, different policy options are discussed in light of the lessons learned.

Quasi-Fiscal Deficits and Energy Conditionality in Selected CIS Countries

Quasi-fiscal deficits of public utility companies are common in all member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). They constitute a significant impediment to efficient resource allocation and endanger macroeconomic stability. This paper presents a simple framework for measuring and monitoring such deficits and highlights their macroeconomic relevance. It reviews the progress under IMF conditionality aimed at correcting these imbalances during 1993-2003. The paper suggests that the extensive conditionality under the IMF-supported programs has yielded only limited progress in reducing the energy sector's financial imbalances. In conclusion, different policy options are discussed in light of the lessons learned.

An Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability in Romania

This article analyses Romanian fiscal policy during the 1990s with the main emphasis on the aspect of sustainability of the budget situation. First, the study presents the general development of Romania's economy during the transition period as background for the subsequent policy analysis. Second, the problems of quasi-fiscal subsidies and payment arrears which led to very large quasi-fiscal deficits are highlighted. In the next step, a macroeconomic model is introduced to assess the degree of fiscal sustainability starting with the inter-temporal government budget constraint. The overall deficit for the general government, including central and local governments as well as other institutions belonging to the non-financial public sector, is computed using official statistics. The research findings suggest that Romania has followed an unsustainable fiscal policy in the transition period, particularly up to 1996. In the first half of the 1990s the government financed the deficit partly through seignorage and tried to deal with immediate pressures, preventing social dissatisfaction but neglecting long-term targets. The situation has improved slightly in recent years, nevertheless, there is still much to be done in this area.

Macroeconomic Policy Lessons from LDC'S

This paper focuses on several topics related to macroeconomic policies in LDC's. The selection is biased towards those cases I have dealt with during my last 20 years of professional experience, home based in Argentina. Inflation, dollarization, quasi-fiscal deficits, capital controls and stabilization policies are old friends of Latin-Americans. Currency Boards, Common Markets, Lender of Last Resort and Country Risk are newer concepts that have taken special relevance in the 90's, the decade of globalization.

Exchange market reform, inflation, and fiscal deficits

This paper examines the effects of exchange market reform on inflation and quasifiscal deficits in developing countries. The first part presents the conceptual framework, which identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account (in addition to implicit taxes on exports, as emphasized by Pinto (1991)) in assessing the fiscal and inflationary effects of exchange market reform. A formula that attempts to capture explicitly these taxes and subsidies is derived. The second part applies the formula to six countries (Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka). The results suggest that exchange market reform may lead to a significant reduction in reliance on the inflation tax.

Exchange Market Reform, Inflation, and Fiscal Deficits

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange market reform in developing countries. The first part reviews the recent experience of Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka with exchange market reform. The second part studies analytically the short-run dynamics of the parallel market premium and the money supply upon unification, when the post-reform regime consists of either a pure float or a managed float. The third part discusses the impact of unification on inflation and quasi-fiscal deficits, and identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account in assessing the longer-run effects of exchange market reform.

Exchange Market Reform, Inflation, and Fiscal Deficits

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange market reform in developing countries. The first part reviews the recent experience of Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka with exchange market reform. The second part studies analytically the short-run dynamics of the parallel market premium and the money supply upon unification, when the post-reform regime consists of either a pure float or a managed float. The third part discusses the impact of unification on inflation and quasi-fiscal deficits, and identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account in assessing the longer-run effects of exchange market reform.

Préserver la zone CFA : la coordination macro-économique après la dévaluation

The recent 50 percent devaluation of the CFA Franc reinforces the importance of macro-economic coordination in the two monetary unions. The existing rule-based arrangements, such as the limit of a country's central-bank borowing being 20 percent of fiscal receipts, have not prevented some fiscal laxity, with the costs of one member's excesses potentially spilling over to the union as a whole. If the benefits of membership in the cfa zone (monetary discipline, low inflation) are to be preserved, the existing arrangements will need to be modified. The paper proposes that the 20 percent rule be strengthened to include a limit on each country's fiscal deficit and debt ; that sanctions on errant states be imposed through reduced access to borrowing ; and that the central banks finance quasi-fiscal deficits through the countries' budgets.