Quantity Theory Research Articles

Monetary Policy Instruments and Financial Performance of the Banking Industry in Kenya

The Kenyan banking sector has faced significant volatility in recent years, notably marked by a decline in Return on Assets (ROA). This decrease reflects the sector's struggles with rising inflation, currency depreciation, and increased non-performing loans. Economic uncertainties and tighter global monetary policies have compounded these challenges, resulting in a more unstable financial environment. This volatility underscores the sector's sensitivity to both domestic and international economic conditions. In response, this research aimed to investigate the effect of monetary policy instruments on the financial performance of banks in Kenya. The study sought to analyze the effect of lending rates, money supply, open market operations (OMO), and the Central Bank Rate (CBR) on banks' financial performance. Anchored on four relevant theories—the Loanable Funds Theory, Quantity Theory of Money, Keynesian Economics, and Zero Bound Theory. The research utilized a causal design and a multiple linear regression model. Covering all 42 banks operating in Kenya from January 2009 to December 2023, the study employed secondary data. The correlation analysis reveals significant relationships between the monetary policy instruments and the financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya. Lending rates demonstrate a positive relationship with financial performance, suggesting that higher rates may benefit banks’ profitability. In contrast, both money supply and central bank rate show negative associations with financial performance, implying that increases in these variables might hinder profitability. Additionally, the analysis indicates a positive link between open market operations and bank performance, highlighting the varied effects of these monetary instruments on the banks' financial outcomes. Collectively, these insights underscore the interconnectedness of these monetary policy instruments and their impact on the financial performance of banks in Kenya. Given the complex interplay of these factors, policymakers should adopt a holistic view, regularly reviewing and adjusting policies to maintain economic stability while supporting a robust banking sector.

Money/Asset Ratio as a Predictor of Inflation

This paper modifies the quantity theory of money to forecast inflation, relating the latter to scale variables such as monetary aggregate M2 and government bonds that measure the money demand for asset transactions. The out-of-sample forecast results show that at least since the early 1990s, the money/asset model that uses the money supply/government debt ratio as a predictor has been significantly improved upon univariate and multivariate models, such as Phillips curve and term spread models, for forecasting U.S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. In using real-time vintage data, I find that, since 2000Q1, the forecasts derived from the money/asset model have slightly improved upon those from the Greenbook in forecasting quarter-over-quarter CPI inflation at short horizons, from two- to four-quarter. These results imply that the Federal Reserve can use the money supply/government debt ratio to forecast and control the inflation rates, coordinating monetary policy with fiscal policy. Moreover, the money supply/government debt ratio can partly explain the U.S. inflation dynamics from the early 1960s until COVID-19.

Analysis of the Mechanisms Behind the "China Money Mystery"

The growth rate of China's broad money supply (M2) significantly exceeds the combined rates of economic growth and inflation, leading to a continuous rise in the ratio of M2 to GDP. This phenomenon is referred to as the "China Money Mystery." The explanation for this phenomenon involves several factors. Firstly, interest rate and exchange rate controls in the financial market lead to excessive increases in money demand. Secondly, financial repression results in excessive use of indirect financing and a lack of investment channels, further distorting money supply. Thirdly, the financial hoarding theory suggests that a large amount of money flows in the virtual economy rather than being invested in the real economy, thus failing to induce noticeable inflation. Finally, the applicability of traditional quantity theory of money in the modern credit money system is gradually diminishing, failing to explain the relationship between money supply and prices. By integrating these factors, a better understanding of the abnormal monetary supply phenomenon in China and its implications can be achieved.

The Recent Rise in US Inflation: Policy Lessons from the Quantity Theory

The Recent Rise in US Inflation: Policy Lessons from the Quantity Theory

Cryptocurrency and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Case of 10 Asian Economies

This research study investigates the impact of cryptocurrency on economic growth in 10 countries across Asia during past period 2013–2020. For this purpose, the sample included a range of economies with the highest number of Bitcoin usages or transactions. For this purpose, the sample included a range of economies with the highest number of Bitcoin usages or transactions, according to recent international rankings. With specific empirical means on panel data modelling, we attempted to show that economic growth, was influenced negatively by the cryptocurrency ‘Bitcoin’, and we concluded that this instrument leads to an increase in the inflation rate in a country according to the quantity theory of money and leads to a disorder in the monetary policy of a country. Our framework shows that the economic growth proxy was substantially influenced positively by economic indicators such as technology, investment and education but negatively by the high rate of participation, which caused an increase in unemployment. Our empirical results offer insights and insist on the importance of the intervention of the authorities to oversee and control the use of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin to avoid its negative effects and implement a strategy that overcomes these effects from a macroeconomic perspective. JEL Classification: E22, E24, E42, F43, E44, E52

Measuring real money demand in Cambodia: an ARDL approach to cointegration

The findings obtained through the ARDL approach to cointegration indicate that real income, consumer price index, and interest rate are cointegrated with real money demand. In terms of the estimated results derived from the long-run model, it is observed that real income has a statistically significant positive impact on real money demand, while the general price level and interest rate have a negative impact. The short-run dynamic model, known as the error correction model, demonstrates that all explanatory variables collectively account for the growth rate of real money balances. In the short-run, the growth rate of real income exhibits a positive relationship with the demand for real money, whereas the inflation rate and changes in interest rate have a significant negative effect on the demand for real money balances. The estimated slope coefficient of the short-run dynamic model, which measures the speed of adjustment, is projected to be 60.67%. This outcome suggests that the real money balance model takes no more than two quarters to adjust towards long-run equilibrium in response to short-run dynamic shocks. Stability tests, such as the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, indicate that the real money demand function in Cambodia remains stable in the long-term. The findings derived from this study provide empirical evidence in favor of the quantity theory of money.

The Theory of Quantity in Measures and Scales a Comparative Jurisprudential Study

Every body has a size and mass that distinguishes it from others and makes it different from others. Some of these bodies are huge and large in size, and some are small and light in weight. Among these masses and bodies are some that are dealt with by their size and weight, each according to its quantity, weight, and cheapness. This is why they created quantities by which these weights and quantities could be estimated, so they used measures and weights for that. Objectives: The research aims to know some measures and weights, such as the wife’s maintenance, the amount of zakat, etc.I found it to be a widely spread topic, and widely used in the folds of jurisprudence. During my reading of jurisprudence books, I found jurists using many quantities, of multiple types, and different forms, according to the type of each quantity. methodology: I begin by mentioning the title and the definition in its language and terminology, and the basis of the issue from a verse or hadith, then I arrange the opinions, starting with the first, then the next, then the next, and I make the statement that seems to me closest to the truth - according to what I have arrived at - in the last. I have attributed the Qur’anic verses to their surahs, and the noble hadiths to their original sources as much as I can. If I do not find it, I indicate the place from which I took it. Results: Conclusion: Jurisprudential theories are a new method of writing, and a new method of classification, created by contemporary scholars. They composed several theories, with multiple topics, according to each theory and its details. The theory of magnitude is a theory that includes the origins of the particulars of quantities, in its spread within the various sections of jurisprudence.

Investigating the Economic Dynamics of Mobile Money in Post-Conflict Economies: Empirical Evidence from Somalia

This study investigates the economic dynamics of mobile money in Somalia, focusing on its transformative potential to impact economic activities in the short and long term. Adopting a quantitative research design, the study utilizes secondary data from 2010 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to assess the impact of mobile money on household consumption, real income, exports, and imports. Theoretical insights from the quantity theory of money further guide the examination of how mobile money influences economic activities. The findings demonstrate that mobile money has a significant positive effect on household consumption, real income, export growth, and import activity both in the short and long term. The study reveals that mobile money not only facilitates financial transactions but also enhances trade efficiency and promotes financial inclusion, thereby stimulating economic activities and growth. The study underscores the need for a supportive regulatory environment for mobile money services. It highlights that financial institutions and mobile money service providers should expand innovative services to include the unbanked population. By doing so, they can leverage mobile money to foster greater economic engagement and empowerment. Policymakers are encouraged to develop strategies that promote financial inclusion and economic development to harness the full potential of mobile money. This study enriches the existing literature by uniquely investigating the economic impacts of mobile money in Somalia, a post-conflict setting, thereby broadening the understanding of how financial technologies can catalyze economic activities and growth in similar contexts.

The lens of the quantity theory of money to disentangle the perceived relationship between money growth and inflation: a PSVAR approach

This paper contributes to the debate on the re-appraisal of monetization mechanism as a possible tool for dealing with macroeconomic imbalances due to close economic shocks (e.g. the Covid pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalation in Israel-Hamas crisis). We analyze and empirically discuss the well-known Quantity Theory of Money (QTM), by applying the SVAR methodology to a heterogeneous panel including several Countries (Australia, China, India, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States) plus the block of Euro Zone (EZ) over the period 1992–2022. We investigate the dynamics and the impacts of the variables included in the theoretical model (inflation, GDP growth, money growth and the change in the velocity of money) through the analysis of the macro economic datasets retrieved from the OECD and Trading Economics databases. We find that money growth does not exert the decisive spillover effect on the path of inflation (i.e. common shock) throughout our sample. Moreover, our results indicate that the idiosyncratic component does not show a predominant and determining role of monetary growth in inflationary dynamics.

The Quantity Theory of Money, Quantitative Easing and the Missing Inflation Phenomenon

Abstract Several explanations have been put forward for the observation that massive inflation has not appeared as a result of the explosive monetary growth generated by quantitative easing that was in 2008. Several plausible explanations have been put forward for this observation, but none of them can explain the huge gap between monetary inflation and price inflation. The alternative explanation presented in this paper is that monetary inflation is more reflected in stock prices than the CPI. It is demonstrated that by adjusting the CPI to reflect changes in stock prices, the gap between the trends of the money supply the CPI can be almost eliminated.

The Effect of the Exchange Rate on Price Stability in Iraq from 2004-2022

This Paper examines how the exchange rate influences price stability in Iraq using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Monthly data covering the period from January 2004 to April 2022 are employed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used as the dependent variable and Exchange Rate (EX), Oil Prices (OILR), Money Supply (M2), Policy Interest Rates (IR), and Government Spending (GOSP) as independent variables. The ARDL bound test results confirm a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and price stability in Iraq; the results indicate that a more robust exchange rate is associated with higher price stability, emphasizing potential benefits from currency strength. The positive link between government spending and price stability suggests the stabilizing impact of fiscal policies. In contrast, the negative association between interest rates and price stability corresponds to expectations of reduced economic activity. Findings on money supply support the quantity theory of money, and the negative relationship between oil revenue and price stability highlights challenges associated with economic reliance on oil. The Paper offers valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of exchange rate stability, economic diversification, and precise adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies to ensure sustained price stability in Iraq. Paper type: Research paper.

Distribution theories for genetic line of least resistance and evolvability measures.

Quantitative genetic theory on multivariate character evolution predicts that a population's response to directional selection is biased toward the major axis of the genetic covariance matrix G-the so-called genetic line of least resistance. Inferences on the genetic constraints in this sense have traditionally been made by measuring the angle of deviation of evolutionary trajectories from the major axis, or more recently by calculating the amount of genetic variance-the Hansen-Houle evolvability-available along the trajectories. However, there have not been clear practical guidelines on how these quantities can be interpreted, especially in a high-dimensional space. This study summarizes pertinent distribution theories for relevant quantities, pointing out that they can be written as ratios of quadratic forms in evolutionary trajectory vectors by taking G as a parameter. For example, a beta distribution with appropriate parameters can be used as a null distribution for squared cosine of the angle of deviation from a major axis or subspace. More general cases can be handled with the probability distribution of ratios of quadratic forms in normal variables. Apart from its use in hypothesis-testing, this latter approach could potentially be used as a heuristic tool for looking into various selection scenarios like directional and/or correlated selection as parameterized with mean and covariance of selection gradients.

Definitions by abstraction and Leibniz's notion of quantity

AbstractThis paper analyses the abstractionist account of quantity championed by Leibniz, especially in the 1680s. Leibniz introduced the notion of quantity in an indirect way, via an abstraction principle. In the first part of the paper, I identify the context in which this approach arose in light of Leibniz's criticism of his earlier dream of an ‘alphabet of human thought’. Recognising the impossibility of such a project led him to realise that, when dealing with terms referring to abstract objects, we should always consider them within the true sentences in which they occur. In the second part, I describe this approach in detail. This allows us to look at some key concepts of Leibniz's theory of quantity. In particular, I raise the problem of the relationship between the two sides of the abstraction principle: how should we think of the relation between the claim that a and b are equal, and the claim that the quantity of a is identical to the quantity of b? I argue that we can find a positive answer to this problem in Leibniz.

The simple macroeconometrics of the quantity theory and the welfare cost of inflation

The quantity theory of money hypothesizes that the price level is determined through the equilibration of money supply and demand. Predicated on this causal structure, a single-equation error correction model decomposes from a larger vector autoregressive system so as to make available bounds tests for a levels relationship that are robust to the univariate integration properties of the variables. This model is estimated using three monetary aggregates and two money demand specifications, for U.S. and U.K. annual data over the past century and quarterly post-WWII data. The classic homogeneity propositions of the quantity theory are testable, and are found to be most compatible with U.S. annual M2 using log-log money demand with structural change permitted. Nevertheless, the resulting welfare costs are similar to those yielded by the U.K. annual data, being less than one percent of GDP at interest rates experienced during the past century.

The Monetarists: The Making of the Chicago Monetary Tradition, 1927–1960

Carola Binder of Haverford College reviews “The Monetarists: The Making of the Chicago Monetary Tradition, 1927–1960” by George S. Tavlas. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Considers the emergence and development of the Chicago monetary tradition into what became known as monetarism, describing it as it was reflected in the works of a small group of University of Chicago economists who preserved the importance of the quantity theory of money and defended the free-market system.”

Money supply and inflation in Algeria : a Wavelet Based Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between money supply and inflation in Algeria using wavelet analysis. In this study, we have applied Maxima Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT), Multiresolution Analysis (MRA), wavelet correlation, Wavelet Coherence, and wavelet-based Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between the two variables during the period from January 2010 to November 2019. Our findings show strong links between money supply and inflation in both the short and long run, which supports both the traditional and modern quantity theories of money. Additionally, the time scale Granger causality analysis indicates the existence of causality from money supply to inflation over different time horizons. The outcomes of the current study should be of interest to Algerian monetary policymakers as they decide to sustain growth using unconventional monetary policy.

An Empirical Investigation of the Quantity Theory of Money in Pakistan

One of the macroeconomic objective is to have price stability. The quantity theory of money (QTM) explains the nexus between money supply and price level in the economy thus, QTM provides the theoretical framework for monetary policy to bring price stability. Therfore, this study investigates the validity of QTM in Pakistan in time series study. This study applied different econometric techniques, unit root tests, cointegration test, and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) cointegration regression. The variables money supply, price level, interest rate and output are cointegrated in the long run. The results of the FMOLS regression indicate positive and significant effect of money supply on price level henceforth; this study validate the QTM in Pakistan. The study suggests that monetary policy can effectively control the price level in the economy to maintain economic stability and sustain economic growth.

Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange

Starting from Irving Fisher’s equation of exchange ( ) at the basis of the quantity theory of money, we analyze from a theoretical macroeconomic-monetary perspective whether the increase of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 might have affected general prices. Moreover, we investigate why monetary aggregates have evolved differently for COVID-19 than in the global financial crisis (2007-2009). The article elaborates on data for the US from Q1/2020 to Q2/2022 and represents the first scientific contribution to the analysis of post-COVID-19 inflation by means of the equation of exchange. We find that money growth seems to have contributed to inflation supporting the “monetarist” view, but that non-monetary drivers such as supply shocks and increasing profit margins outweigh the monetary ones.

THE LONG AND UNFINISHED ROAD TO FRIEDMAN AND MEISELMAN’S “THE RELATIVE STABILITY OF MONETARY VELOCITY AND THE INVESTMENT MULTIPLIER”

Milton Friedman and David Meiselman’s 1963 article, “The Relative Stability of Monetary Velocity and the Investment Multiplier in the United States, 1897–1958,” was one of the most influential studies to come out of the Keynesian-monetarist debates of the 1960s and 1970s. The gestation of the article, however, is shrouded with considerable inaccuracy and ambiguity. I use archival materials to provide a more accurate chronological ordering of the gestation of the article than has hitherto been available. I show that the gestation was subject to considerable delays. I provide reasons that explain why a long-promised follow-up paper was never completed and why a book sequel to Friedman’s 1956 Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, planned as a co-edited work shortly after the appearance of the Friedman and Meiselman 1963 article, was not published until 1970 and was edited by Meiselman alone.

Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto dan Inflasi Terhadap Jumlah Uang Beredar (M1) di Indonesia Periode 1980 – 2020 Menurut Pendekatan Klasik

The The research aims to determine the effect of gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation on the total money supply (JUB) in Indonesia. This study uses timeseries data from 1980 to 2020 obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics, and Bank Indonesia. This study uses a classical approach. The research was conducted using multiple linear regression. Hypothesis testing using the t test and f test is used to determine the feasibility of the model. The results of the analysis show that the Gross Domestic Product Variable (X1) partially has a positive and significant effect on the Money Supply in Indonesia. The Inflation Variable (X2) partially influences the Money Supply in Indonesia. Based on the analysis of the Simultaneous Test value prob. F of 0.00 < error rate of 0.05. Thus, Ho is rejected and H1 is accepted. This shows that the Gross Domestic Product (X1) Inflation (X2), simultaneously has a significant effect on the Money Supply in Indonesia, because F count is 36.07 > 3.25 F table and the Adjusted R Square coefficient or the coefficient of determination is 0.7452 This means 74.52% of the variation or change in the total money supply can be explained by variations in Gross Domestic Product and Inflation, while the rest (25.48%) is explained by other variables outside this research model. This is consistent with the quantity theory of money. According to the quantity theory of money, according to Irving Fisher, it states that the amount in circulation is directly proportional to changes in prices.