Quantitative Trade Models Research Articles

Estimates of the trade and global value chain (GVC) effects of China’s Pilot Free Trade Zones: a research based on the quantitative trade model

While Pilot Free Trade Zones (PFTZs) have been promoted in China as a unilateral opening measure to boost economic growth amid deglobalization, their benefits in driving cities’ openness remain an underexplored research topic. This study aims to investigate the impact of PFTZs on cities’ trade performance. By employing a multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium analytical model, the study reveals that the PFTZs enhance the overall level of openness across all cities in the country. Regarding the value-added sources, the PFTZs reduce the proportion of value-added originating from domestic regions and increase the proportion derived from international markets. Moreover, the PFTZs play a pivotal role in stimulating exports and strengthening the Chinese cities’ participation in the Global Value Chain (GVC). Meanwhile, the PFTZs enhance cities’ upstreamness in GVC while exerting an inhibitory effect on the downstreamness in GVC for most cities.

Spillover effects of structure-adjustment pollution reduction measures in China's iron and steel industry

The iron and steel industry (ISI) is a significant source of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter pollution in China. Existing research on regional environmental regulation or ISI emission reduction strategies tends to overlook spillover effects and the enterprise perspective. During the heating season, production limitations in ISI are potential policy measures for achieving structural emission reductions in heavily polluted cities in China's Jing-Jin-Ji and surrounding regions. We adopt a bottom-up modeling approach, incorporating effective production time to describe enterprise behavior and establishing a quantitative trade model based on trade theory. By modeling three types of production restriction policies outlined in policy documents, we evaluate the emission reduction effects of structure-adjustment measures using the example of reduced effective production time for steel-producing enterprises in the air pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The results indicate the following: (1) Reducing the effective production time of ISI enterprises can help decrease domestic production value and total factor productivity in pollution-intensive industries, including but not limited to ISI. It also leads to reduced emissions of various pollutants in the implementation regions. (2) Due to interprovincial trade and input-output linkages, structural reduction measures in certain regions have implications for almost all other provinces' industrial structures. Differences in initial industrial structures, factor endowments, and geographical locations contribute to varying directions and magnitudes of industrial structural changes. Pollution-intensive industries' share tends to increase higher in less developed regions. (3) Our estimated pollution reduction is smaller compared to the literature evaluating clean air policies in similar regions using top-down strategies. This discrepancy arises because we analyze a single policy tool rather than modeling industry-wide emission fluctuations from the top down. Additionally, our modeling approach allows us to examine dynamic changes in comparative advantages. The increase in production scale for certain industries in policy-affected regions partially offsets the decline in pollution emissions. These findings enhance our understanding of structure-adjustment reduction measures' role and highlight their potential advantages and limitations.

Trade and the environment, trade policies and environmental policies—How do they interact?

AbstractWhile international trade can offer gains from specialization and access to a wider range of products, it is also closely interlinked with global environmental problems, above all, anthropogenic climate change. This survey provides a structured overview of the economic literature on the interaction between environmental outcomes, trade, environmental policy and trade policy. In this endeavor, it covers approaches reaching from descriptive data analysis based on input‐output tables, over quantitative trade models and econometric studies to game‐theoretic analyses. Addressed issues are in particular the emission content of trade and emissions along value chains, the relocation of dirty firms and environmental impacts abroad, impacts of specific trade policies (such as trade agreements or tariffs) or environmental policies (such as border carbon adjustment), transportation emissions, as well as the role of firms. Across the different topics covered, the paper also tries to identify avenues for future research, with a particular focus on extending quantitative trade and environment models.

Global Firms in Large Devaluations

Abstract I investigate the consequences of firms’ joint import and export decisions in the context of large devaluations. I provide empirical evidence that large devaluations are characterized by an increase in the aggregate share of imported inputs in total input spending and by reallocation of resources toward import-intensive firms, contrary to what standard quantitative trade models predict. These facts are explained by the expansion of exporters, which are intense importers. I develop a model where firms globally decide their import and export strategies and discipline it to match salient features of the Mexican micro data. After a devaluation, the model reproduces the pattern of low aggregate substitution and firm reallocation observed in the data. Compared with a benchmark without global firms, the model predicts higher growth of total exports and imports and a smaller reduction in the trade deficit.

Impacts of deep trade agreements on trade and welfare – An application to China joining the RCEP and CPTPP

Using a quantitative trade model, this paper evaluates the trade and welfare effects of deep trade agreements in an application to China joining the RCEP and CPTPP. By feeding trade cost shocks from the changes in RTA deepness into the model, we find substantial gains from incorporating legal enforceability and dispute settlement provisions in both agreements. With the CPTPP being deeper than the RCEP, our counterfactual exercise of China joining the CPTPP shows that 69% of its welfare gains come from deepening RCEP provisions to the CPTPP level. For the RCEP members, the gains from deepening non-tariff-related core provisions are quantitatively important.

Trade wars and trade disputes: The role of equity and political support

AbstractRecent theoretical and quantitative analysis of trade wars is grounded in a relatively narrow treatment of optimal tariff theory and noncooperative Nash equilibria. The lynchpin of this approach is the assumption that trade policy makers are rational and have a simple well‐established objective function to optimize. We argue that the preferred specification of this objective function ignores inequality at its peril. We work with a quantitative trade model, introducing a comprehensive tariff‐space grid search new to the literature. This allows us to explicitly check for the presence of multiple Nash outcomes. We show that including income inequality—a primary focus of the earlier literature—as a determinant of social welfare can substantially change noncooperative Nash outcomes. We also show that the optimal tariff of the US falls by half when the social welfare function includes inequality as an objective. Hence, the economic outcomes of actual trade wars may be very different from what recent estimates grounded in optimal tariff theory would suggest.

Trade and technology adoption in distorted economies

This paper examines how labor market imperfections distort firm-level technology choices and alter the gains from trade in developing countries. Motivated by evidence that firms using modern technologies are disproportionately exposed to labor market distortions, we introduce firm-level technology choices and labor market distortions into an otherwise standard quantitative trade model. We then provide formulas for the welfare and labor productivity gains from trade liberalization, highlighting the role of distortions and technology choice. Our quantitative analysis reveals that labor market distortions provide a possible explanation for the inefficiently low levels of modern technology adoption in developing countries. Moreover, labor market distortions erode one-third of the potential labor productivity gains from trade liberalization among low-income countries.

(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions

What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input–output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia’s income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia’s mining and energy products is the most cost-efficient policy.

Catch-Up Growth and Inter-industry Productivity Spillovers: Evidence from Trade Data

Abstract Where and when does export-led growth work? This paper estimates the importance of inter-industry productivity spillovers for the export-led growth of developing countries. My empirical strategy is based on a standard quantitative trade model that features sector-level gravity in trade flows. Applying the framework to four decades of trade data, I find clear evidence of spillovers, which are larger for skill-intensive sectors. The estimates imply that patterns of sectoral specialization play a quantitatively important role in accounting for the slow convergence of labor productivity in tradable sectors. Quantitative exercises suggest that export-led growth works for poorer countries with an initial comparative advantage in manufacturing, as these countries can use foreign demand from richer countries to reallocate labor towards sectors with high spillovers.

The social footprint of globalisation: towards the introduction of strategic industries in quantitative trade models

ABSTRACT We argue that our understanding of industrial policy in the presence of ‘strategic’ industries that exert positive externalities on the national economy may benefit from an extension of quantitative general equilibrium trade models making the extent and pattern of trade-induced reallocations more salient. To make these features relevant for national welfare, we introduce the notion of the ‘social footprint’ of globalisation as the result of suboptimal trade-induced structural transformation in the presence of externalities. For proof of concept, we use simple workhorse models featuring two countries and two industries (only one of which is ‘strategic’) to highlight the role of the ‘scale elasticity’ of the strategic industry and the consequences of the most common assumptions on market structure in quantitative trade analyses.

Corporate income taxation and multinational production

AbstractThrough the lens of a quantitative general equilibrium model of international trade and multinational production, this paper studies corporate tax competition and cooperation among asymmetric countries. The model theoretically supports the empirical regularities that corporate income taxation influences multinational firms' location and production decisions. Calibrating the model to three asymmetric countries for a hypothetical tax competition, I find that race to the bottom occurs in the Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, counterfactual analysis of the global minimum corporate tax shows welfare reduction compared to the equilibrium of tax competition but welfare improvement compared to the current tax regime.

Profits, Scale Economies, and the Gains from Trade and Industrial Policy

This paper examines the efficacy of second-best trade restrictions at correcting sectoral misallocation due to scale economies or profit-generating markups. To this end, we characterize optimal trade and industrial policies in an important class of quantitative trade models with scale effects and profits, estimating the structural parameters that govern policy outcomes. Our estimates reveal that standalone trade policy measures are remarkably ineffective at correcting mis-allocation, even when designed optimally. Unilateral adoption of corrective industrial policies is also ineffective due to immiserizing growth effects. But industrial policies coordinated internationally via a deep agreement are more transformative than any unilateral policy alternative. (JEL F12, F13,14. L52, O19, O25)

Regional integration and services in African value chains: Retrospect and prospect

AbstractThis article takes a first step towards understanding the quantitative evidence on the role of services in African value chains. The available data are largely based on assumptions and modelled estimates, but can nonetheless provide some useful information at an aggregate level. In general, services play an important role in the African regional economy, including through their embodiment in the exports of other sectors through input–output relationships. However, services value chains in the region are mostly composed of domestic value added, and to a lesser extent inputs sourced from global suppliers. There is very little intra‐regional sourcing of services inputs. Simulations using a new quantitative trade model show that intra‐regional sourcing could be increased through a derived demand effect following goods market liberalisation. In the stylized cases examined, increased use of regional services inputs is not at the expense of globally competitive suppliers. As such, it will be important to give a more prominent role to services in discussions of regional integration going forward.

GVCs and trade elasticities with multistage production

We build a quantitative model of trade with multistage manufacturing value chains, which features many countries, iceberg trade costs, and technology differences across both goods and production stages. We estimate technology and trade costs via the simulated method of moments, matching bilateral shipments of final goods and inputs. Applying the model, we investigate how comparative advantage and trade costs shape the structure of global value chains and trade flows. As the level of trade costs falls, we show that the gravity elasticity of bilateral trade to trade costs increases, due to the endogenous reorganization of value chains and increased export platform production. Surprisingly, however, the resulting increase in world trade (as a share of GDP) is not magnified by multistage production, relative to a benchmark Ricardian model with roundabout production.

Bilateral Trade Imbalances

Abstract If sectoral trade flows obey structural gravity, countries’ bilateral trade imbalances are the result of macro trade imbalances, “triangular trade”, or pairwise asymmetric trade barriers. Using data for 40 major economies and the Rest of the World, we show that large and pervasive asymmetries in trade barriers are required to account for most of the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. A dynamic quantitative trade model suggests that eliminating these asymmetries would significantly reduce bilateral (but not macro) imbalances and have sizeable impacts on welfare. We provide evidence that the asymmetries we measure are in part related to the policy environment: trade inside the European Single Market appears to be subject to more bilaterally symmetric frictions. Extending the same symmetry to all parts of the global economy would give a large boost to the real incomes of several non-E.U. countries.

Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

We examine the labor market consequences of recent global supply chain disruptions induced by COVID-19. Specifically, we consider a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the pandemic and analyze its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. Even omitting any health related impacts of the pandemic, the increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United States is a net importer of manufactured goods, which become costlier to obtain from abroad. By contrast, service and agricultural employment experience temporary declines. Nominal frictions lead to temporary unemployment when the shock dissipates, but this depends on the degree of monetary accommodation. Overall, the shock results in a 0.14% welfare loss for the United States. The impact on labor force participation and welfare across countries varies depending on the initial degree of openness and sectoral deficits.

Market Power and Spatial Competition in Rural India

Abstract Market power of intermediaries contributes to the low incomes of farmers in India. I study the role of spatial competition between intermediaries in determining the prices that farmers receive in India by focusing on a law that restricts farmers to selling their goods to intermediaries in their own state. I show that the discontinuities in market power generated by the law translate into discontinuities in prices. Increasing spatial competition by one standard deviation causes prices received by farmers to increase by 6.4%. I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of bargaining and trade to shed light on spatial and aggregate implications. Estimates from the structural model suggest that removing the interstate trade restriction in India would increase competition between intermediaries. Thereby average farmer prices and their output would increase by at least 11% and 7%, respectively. The value of the national crop output would increase by at least 18%. However, there are distributional consequences as well, as some farmers stand to lose due to increased local production.

A Quantitative Model of International Trade Based on Deep Neural Network.

This paper is an in-depth study of international trade quantification models based on deep neural networks. Based on an in-depth analysis of global trade characteristics, a summary of existing problems, and a comparative analysis of various prediction methods, this paper constructs the ARIMA model, BP neural network (BPNN) model, and deep neural network (DNN) model to make a comprehensive comparison of international trade quantification. The results show that the nonlinear model has a global trade quantification has some advantages over linear models, and the deep model shows better prediction performance than the shallow model. In addition, preprocessing of the time series is considered to improve the prediction accuracy or shorten the model training time. The empirical modal analysis method (EMD) is introduced to decompose the time series into eigenmodal functions (IMFs) of different scales. Then the decomposed IMF series are arranged into a matrix using principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality and extract the data containing the most stock index information features; these features are then input into BPNN and DNN for combined prediction, thus constructing the combined models EMD-PCA-BPNN and EMD-PCA-DNN. Based on Melitz's heterogeneous firm trade theory and its development by Chaney, a quantitative trade model incorporating production heterogeneity is constructed through a multisector extension. This paper adopts a general equilibrium analysis, which makes the modeling process pulse clear. The completed model has high flexibility and scalability, which can be applied to quantitative analysis of various problems.

China-US trade friction and welfare: The role of regional trade agreements

Since 2018, the U.S. has enacted several waves of import tariff increases on China, and China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. Based on a quantitative trade model, we evaluate the impact of this China-US trade friction on the welfare of China and find that the adverse impact on China is larger than it is on the U.S. We further decompose the welfare impact into the terms-of-trade effect and tariff-revenue effect. We also analyze whether and to what extent China's involvement in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) offsets the losses due to trade friction. Our model shows that the RCEP slightly benefits China by reducing the negative impact of China-US trade friction by 11.92%, with Manufacturing of Metal Products being the largest contributor to this effect.

Modelling global value chains: From trade costs to policy impacts

AbstractI use an approach from the family of ‘new quantitative trade models’ to explore the links between trade costs and integration in Global Value Chains (GVCs). The model conceptualises GVC trade through a multi‐country, multi‐sector Ricardian model that nests the standard structural gravity model. It provides a general framework in which to assess the impacts of changes in iceberg trade costs on GVC trade, understood as the sum of backward linkages and pure double counting, in line with recent work on trade in value added. As an example, I use the model to show that observed changes in trade facilitation performance between 2015 and 2019 have strong explanatory power for observed changes in GVC trade during the same period: the model accounts for over one‐third of the observed change, albeit with substantial variation across countries and sectors.