Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Research Articles

A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Produce.

A review of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of Listeria monocytogenes in produce was carried out, with the objective of appraising and contrasting the effectiveness of the control strategies placed along the food chains. Despite nine of the thirteen QRA models recovered being focused on fresh or RTE leafy greens, none of them represented important factors or sources of contamination in the primary production, such as the type of cultivation, water, fertilisers or irrigation method/practices. Cross-contamination at processing and during consumer's handling was modelled using transfer rates, which were shown to moderately drive the final risk of listeriosis, therefore highlighting the importance of accurately representing the transfer coefficient parameters. Many QRA models coincided in the fact that temperature fluctuations at retail or temperature abuse at home were key factors contributing to increasing the risk of listeriosis. In addition to a primary module that could help assess current on-farm practices and potential control measures, future QRA models for minimally processed produce should also contain a refined sanitisation module able to estimate the effectiveness of various sanitisers as a function of type, concentration and exposure time. Finally, L. monocytogenes growth in the products down the supply chain should be estimated by using realistic time-temperature trajectories, and validated microbial kinetic parameters, both of them currently available in the literature.

Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) of SARS-CoV-2 to understand possible exposure to health risks in selected wastewater treatment plants located in the Eastern region of South Africa

In the past two years, Covid-19 has emerged as the most severe and pressing public health issue, causing a great deal of damage to societal and economic welfare, as well as causing illness and mortality. The operators in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), particularly those employed in rural communities, appear to often exhibit a lack of adherence to proper safety protocols by not utilizing sufficient protective equipment while handling unprocessed sewage samples throughout the different phases of wastewater treatment and disposal. This study aimed at examining the potential health risk of infection among WWTP operators, as a result of unintentional ingestion of wastewater during routine duties in facilities that receive influent containing Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) from various areas. This study examined the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in grab samples of untreated wastewater samples using the real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) technique and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was employed on three probable exposure of SARS-CoV-2 scenarios that are expressed as moderate, aggressive and extreme (2 mL, 10 mL, 20 mL) to evaluate the probability of infection to WWTP workers based on the 6 h that the workers spent in WWTPs performing their daily activities which exposed them to potential health risk of various pathogens. At the highest SARS-CoV-2 genome of 266.23 × 102 gc/mL, the findings indicated that there was no statistically significant difference in the probability of infections with respect to seasonal differences because the P(i) value was greater than 0.05 (p > 0.05). Overall, P(i) was highly significant across all volumetric scenarios in the study with p value that was p < 0.001. The probability of getting infected during the different seasons is assumed to be low since there was no statistically difference in P(i) with respect to season however it can be assumed that there is a high chance of getting infected regardless of volumetric intake. Our study suggests that the risk of accidental occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in raw wastewater is negligible to workers whereby workers would perform their daily activities without wearing protective gear. Nevertheless, the importance and work of WWTPs by workers should not be overlooked. Regardless of the situation, it is widely recognized that residential wastewater poses a potential risk of infection due to the presence of several enteric pathogens, therefore, it is crucial to ensure that those who are occupationally exposed to untreated wastewater are well equipped with suitable personal protective equipment (PPE).

Factors influencing naturalisation success in horticultural species: a case study using planting records from the inception of a planned city

Worldwide, many invasive plant species are garden escapees. While weed risk assessment can identify new plant introductions with weedy potential, it does not address the large number of non-native plant species already present in many regions, the majority of which are horticultural species. Here we evaluate the drivers of plant naturalisation success using historical data on the horticultural woody species planted in Canberra, Australia. Canberra provides a unique opportunity to study plant naturalisation as it is a planned city with extensive horticultural plantings originating from government nurseries that kept extensive records documenting the planting efforts from the city’s inception. We identified factors linked to naturalisation success in 1439 horticultural, woody, non-native species planted in Canberra over 150 years by fitting univariate and multivariate regression models, and identified both direct and indirect effects using path analysis in a Bayesian framework. We found species were more likely to naturalise with greater planting effort, longer residence time, smaller seeds and dispersal mechanisms linked to wind and animal vectors. Cold-hardy and tall plants were also more likely to naturalise, although cold hardiness and height mostly affected naturalisation success indirectly via planting effort. These findings can aid in generating quantitative risk assessment models to predict woody garden species that would naturalise and pose the greatest risk of becoming invasive in the future.

A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Seafood.

Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood was performed, with the objective of appraising the effectiveness of the control strategies at different points along the food chain. It is worth noting, however, that the outcomes of a QRA model are context-specific, and influenced by the country and target population, the assumptions that are employed, and the model architecture itself. Studies containing QRA models were retrieved through a literature search using properly connected keywords on Scopus and PubMed®. All 13 QRA models that were recovered were of short scope, covering, at most, the period from the end of processing to consumption; the majority (85%) focused on smoked or gravad fish. Since the modelled pathways commenced with the packaged product, none of the QRA models addressed cross-contamination events. Many models agreed that keeping the product's temperature at 4.0-4.5 °C leads to greater reductions in the final risk of listeriosis than reducing the shelf life by one week and that the effectiveness of both measures can be surpassed by reducing the initial occurrence of L. monocytogenes in the product (at the end of processing). It is, therefore, necessary that future QRA models for RTE seafood contain a processing module that can provide insight into intervention strategies that can retard L. monocytogenes' growth, such as the use of bacteriocins, ad hoc starter cultures and/or organic acids, and other strategies seeking to reduce cross-contamination at the facilities, such as stringent controls for sanitation procedures. Since risk estimates were shown to be moderately driven by growth kinetic parameters, namely, the exponential growth rate, the minimum temperature for growth, and the maximum population density, further work is needed to reduce uncertainties.

Estimation of Rotavirus Associated Diarrheal Disease Burden Amongst Primary School Children of Sindh

Introduction: Human Rotavirus Virus (HRV) is amongst the common enteric viral diarrheal diseases that indirectly or directly influence school-going children in low-income countries. Inadequate information exists on the presence of rotavirus, with reference to drinking water supplies of primary schools in Sindh, Pakistan. Aims &amp; Objectives: We estimated the risk of rotavirus-associated diarrhea through drinking water. The study further compared the HRV-associated risk of diarrheal disease by a type of water source. Place and Duration of Study: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in ten representative districts of Sindh from February 2022 to December 2022. The samples for drinking water were collected from primary schools of ten representative districts of Sindh. This study was a part of the WASH Project funded by USAID (USPCASW Seed Grant P-II) Material &amp; Methods: We selected 425 samples of drinking water from primary schools based on pre-defined selection criteria. We used a Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis using indicator organisms, i.e., E. coli, to predict the possible health risks of rotavirus. Data was entered and analyzed on SPSS version 26. The graphs were developed using Arc GIS version 3. Morbidity and mortality were predicted using the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QAMRA) model. Results: Our data revealed that the highest daily risk of HRV-associated diarrhea amongst school children was 11 per 10,000 schoolchildren, resulting in 8.4% annual risk, and the minimum risk was estimated to be 1 in 10,000 children. The burden of diseases for rotavirus using the QAMRA model revealed the severity of the diarrhea. Majority of the children presented with mild diarrhea (86%) followed by severe, and the probability of death was less than &lt;1%. The daily risk of HRV infection was highest (estimated to be 7 and 11%) in pupils of Southern Sindh, with an annual risk of 17.4% to 40%. Conclusion: Our study concluded that the children in the primary schools of Sindh were exposed to poor drinking water quality. The surface water source poses the highest risk of HRV-related diarrhea to school children. Thus, it is highly recommended that point-of-use drinking water treatment systems be adopted. The water sanitation and hygiene (WASH) resources are interlinked, so each resource impacts the other; hence, schools urgently need to invest in providing adequate WASH facilities to stop enteric virus transmission through drinking water sources.

A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Meat and Meat Products.

A review of the published quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in meat and meat products was performed, with the objective of appraising the intervention strategies deemed suitable for implementation along the food chain as well as their relative effectiveness. A systematic review retrieved 23 QRA models; most of them (87%) focused on ready-to-eat meat products and the majority (78%) also covered short supply chains (end processing/retail to consumption, or consumption only). The processing-to-table scope was the choice of models for processed meats such as chorizo, bulk-cooked meat, fermented sausage and dry-cured pork, in which the effects of processing were simulated. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of obtaining accurate estimates for lag time, growth rate and maximum microbial density, in particular when affected by growth inhibitors and lactic acid bacteria. In the case of deli meats, QRA models showed that delicatessen meats sliced at retail were associated with a higher risk of listeriosis than manufacture pre-packed deli meats. Many models converged on the fact that (1) controlling cold storage temperature led to greater reductions in the final risk than decreasing the time to consumption and, furthermore, that (2) lower numbers and less prevalence of L. monocytogenes at the end of processing were far more effective than keeping low temperatures and/or short times during retail and/or home storage. Therefore, future listeriosis QRA models for meat products should encompass a processing module in order to assess the intervention strategies that lead to lower numbers and prevalence, such as the use of bio-preservation and novel technologies. Future models should be built upon accurate microbial kinetic parameters, and should realistically represent cross-contamination events along the food chain.

Human adenovirus-associated health risk in the recreational waters of the Yal-ku lagoon in the Mexican Caribbean.

The study objective was to evaluate human faecal contamination impacts in the Yal-ku lagoon in the Mexican Caribbean and to estimate adenovirus infection and illness risks associated with recreational exposure during water activities. A total of 20 water samples (10 from each site × two sites) (50 L) were collected monthly over a period of 12 months from two selected sampling sites in the swimming area of the Yal-ku lagoon. The occurrence of faecal-associated viruses was explored, and human adenovirus (HAdV) and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) concentrations were quantified. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was used to estimate exposure and subsequent adenovirus infection and illness risk for 1 h of swimming or snorkelling. Somatic and F + -specific coliphages occurred in 100% of the samples. Both HAdV and PMMoV were detected at a 60% frequency thereby indicating persistent faecal inputs. PMMoV concentrations (44-370 GC/L) were relatively lower than the concentrations of HAdV (64-1,000 GC/L). Estimated mean adenovirus risks were greater for snorkelling than for swimming by roughly one to two orders of magnitude and estimated mean illness risks for snorkelling were >32/1,000. Human faecal contamination is frequent in the Yal-ku lagoon, which is associated with human gastrointestinal illness.

Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Assessment Models for Mega Infrastructure Ventures

This research paper delves into the critical domain of risk assessment for mega infrastructure ventures by proposing and evaluating an integrated approach that harmoniously combines quantitative and qualitative models. The study recognizes the multifaceted nature of risks in large-scale projects and addresses the limitations of singular assessment methodologies. Through an exhaustive literature review, the paper establishes the necessity of a holistic risk management strategy and outlines the methodology for integrating both quantitative and qualitative models. Drawing upon real-world case studies, the paper demonstrates the application of the proposed approach in diverse mega infrastructure settings. Results indicate a synergistic effect, offering a comprehensive understanding of risks that traditional methods might overlook. The integrated model not only enhances the accuracy and reliability of risk assessments but also provides valuable insights for effective decision-making. This innovative approach contributes to the advancement of risk management practices in the field, providing a solid foundation for future research and practical applications in the realm of mega infrastructure development. Keywords: Risk Integration, Holistic Risk Management, Mega Infrastructure Projects, Quantitative Metrics, Qualitative Factors, Decision Support Systems.

Developing a risk management framework to improve public health outcomes by enumerating and serotyping Salmonella in ground turkey.

Salmonella enterica continues to be a leading cause of foodborne morbidity worldwide. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed to evaluate the impact of pathogen enumeration and serotyping strategies on public health after consumption of undercooked contaminated ground turkey in the USA. The risk assessment model predicted more than 20,000 human illnesses annually that would result in ~700 annual reported cases. Removing ground turkey lots contaminated with Salmonella exceeding 10 MPN/g, 1 MPN/g, and 1 MPN/25g would decrease the mean number of illnesses by 38.2, 73.1, and 95.0%, respectively. A three-class mixed sampling plan was tested to allow the detection of positive lots above threshold levels with 2-6 (c=1) and 3-8 samples per lot (c=2) using 25-g and 325-g sample sizes for a 95% probability of rejecting a contaminated lot. Removal of positive lots with the presence of highly virulent serotypes would decrease the number of illnesses by 44.2-87.0%. Based on these model prediction results, risk management strategies should incorporate pathogen enumeration and/or serotyping. This would have a direct impact on illness incidence linking public health outcomes with measurable food safety objectives, at the cost of diverting production lots.

Integrating meta-analysis with a quantitative microbial risk assessment model to investigate Campylobacter contamination of broiler carcasses

This study investigated the prevalence and associated risk factors of Campylobacter in South Korean broilers using a random-effects meta-analysis. Subsequently, to facilitate the design of preventive measures, the prevalence estimate from the meta-analysis was incorporated into a stochastic risk assessment model to quantify the Campylobacter contamination levels on broiler carcasses. The baseline model was developed based on the most common practices along the South Korean broiler processing line, with no interventions. Meta-analysis results revealed Campylobacter prevalence across the chicken supply chain in the following order: farms (60.6 % [57.3–63.4]), retail markets (43.90 % [24.81–64.99]), slaughterhouses (27.71 % [18.56–39.21]), and processing plants (14.50 % [3.96–41.09]). The model estimated a 52 % (36.1–70.8) Campylobacter prevalence at the end of chilling, with an average contamination level of 4.62 (2.50–6.74) log CFU/carcass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that Campylobacter fecal shedding (r = 0.95) and the amount of feces on bird exteriors (r = 0.17) at pre-harvest were the main factors for carcass contamination, while soft scalding (r = -0.22) and air chilling (r = -0.12) can serve as critical control points (CCPs) at harvest. Scenario analysis indicated that a combination of hard scalding, inside-outside bird washing, spray washing, and chlorinated water immersion chilling can offer a 30.9 % reduction in prevalence and a reduction of 2.23 log CFU/carcass in contamination levels compared to the baseline model. Apart from disinfection and sanitation interventions carried out during meat processing, the implementation of robust control measures is indispensable to mitigate Campylobacter prevalence and concentration at broiler farms, thereby enhancing meat safety and public health. Furthermore, given the high Campylobacter prevalence in the retail markets, future studies should explore the potential risk of cross-contamination at post-harvest stage.

A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Dairy Products.

A review of the published quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in dairy products was undertaken in order to identify and appraise the relative effectiveness of control measures and intervention strategies implemented at primary production, processing, retail, and consumer practices. A systematic literature search retrieved 18 QRA models, most of them (9) investigated raw and pasteurized milk cheeses, with the majority covering long supply chains (4 farm-to-table and 3 processing-to-table scopes). On-farm contamination sources, either from shedding animals or from the broad environment, have been demonstrated by different QRA models to impact the risk of listeriosis, in particular for raw milk cheeses. Through scenarios and sensitivity analysis, QRA models demonstrated the importance of the modeled growth rate and lag phase duration and showed that the risk contribution of consumers' practices is greater than in retail conditions. Storage temperature was proven to be more determinant of the final risk than storage time. Despite the pathogen's known ability to reside in damp spots or niches, re-contamination and/or cross-contamination were modeled in only two QRA studies. Future QRA models in dairy products should entail the full farm-to-table scope, should represent cross-contamination and the use of novel technologies, and should estimate L. monocytogenes growth more accurately by means of better-informed kinetic parameters and realistic time-temperature trajectories.

Quantitative microbial spoilage risk assessment of Aspergillus niger in white bread reveal that retail storage temperature and mold contamination during factory cooling are the main factors to influence spoilage

The present study developed a model for effectively assessing the risk of spoilage caused by Aspergillus niger to identify key control measures employed in bakery supply chains. A white bread supply chain comprising a processing plant and two retail stores in Taiwan was selected in this study. Time–temperature profiles were collected at each processing step in summer and winter. Visual mycelium diameter predictions were validated using a time-lapse camera. Six what-if scenarios were proposed. The mean risk of A. niger contamination per package sold by retailer A was 0.052 in summer and 0.036 in winter, and that for retailer B was 0.037 in summer and 0.022 in winter. Sensitivity analysis revealed that retail storage time, retail temperature, and mold prevalence during factory cooling were the main influencing factors. The what-if scenarios revealed that reducing the retail environmental temperature by 1 °C in summer (from 23.97 °C to 22.97 °C) and winter (from 23.28 °C to 22.28 °C) resulted in a reduction in spoilage risk of 47.0% and 34.7%, respectively. These results indicate that food companies should establish a quantitative microbial risk assessment model that uses real data to evaluate microbial spoilage in food products that can support decision-making processes.

Development of a quantitative microbiological spoilage risk assessment (QMSRA) model for cooked ham sliced at retail

A quantitative microbiological spoilage risk assessment model (QMSRA) for cooked ham sliced at retail was developed based on a stochastic growth model for lactic acid bacteria (LAB), which are considered as the specific spoilage organisms (SSO), and a “spoilage-response” relationship characterizing the variability in consumer's perception of spoilage. In a simulation involving 10,000 cooked ham purchases, the QMSRA model predicted a median of zero spoilage events for up to 4.5 days of storage. After storage times of 5 and 6 days, the model predicted 1,790 and 8,570 spoilage events, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that domestic storage temperature was the most significant factor affecting LAB concentration in cooked ham, followed by the LAB contamination level at slicing. A scenario analysis was performed testing better temperature control of consumer's refrigerators, better hygiene conditions during slicing and a combination of the two strategies. Among the tested scenarios, a 2 log reduction in the LAB contamination at slicing combined with a 2 °C decrease in domestic storage temperature resulted in zero risk of spoilage for up to 12 days of storage. The QMSRA model developed in the present study can be a useful tool for quality management decisions.

Risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in lettuce grown in open-field and greenhouse farming systems in China: A comparative study

Abstract Objectives Bacillus cereus isolates from vegetables can cause diarrheal syndrome food poisoning. Lettuce, the most highly consumed ready-to-eat vegetable, poses a significant risk of B. cereus exposure. Hence, B. cereus monitoring and evaluation during cultivation are essential for preventing foodborne illnesses caused by this food–pathogen combination. However, the impact of different cultivation practices on B. cereus contamination in lettuce currently remains unclear. Furthermore, a validity indicator for the experimental models cannot be effectively validated under field conditions. Materials and Methods Herein, we assessed the risk of B. cereus exposure using lettuce grown under two different cultivation farming systems in China (open-field versus greenhouse) using a quantitative microbial risk assessment model. Tukey’s mean comparison method and kernel density estimation frequency distribution statistics were used for model validation using environmental samples and lettuce. Results The mean concentration of B. cereus in open-field-grown lettuce was significantly higher than that in greenhouse-grown lettuce (P&amp;lt;0.05). No significant differences were observed between measured, formula-calculated, and risk assessment values in environmental samples or lettuce (P&amp;gt;0.05), verifying the accuracy of the risk model. Conclusion Soil solarization, complete manure treatment, usage of mulch films, and irrigation water quality should be considered in agricultural practices to control B. cereus concentrations in lettuce. Overall, we found that B. cereus was more abundant in open-field-grown lettuce, and we provide a risk evaluation framework that can guide farmers and policy-makers to control B. cereus contamination in farm-to-fork lettuce chains in China.

Training in modern statistical methodologies and software tools for the definition and analysis of (stochastic) quantitative microbial risk assessment models with a comparison between the Hungarian and Spanish food supply chains.

Human pathogenic Salmonella enterica strains have been infecting people since historical times. The original human pathogens, typhoid Salmonella strains (e.g. S. Typhi) played a huge role in the previous centuries but nowadays in the developed world the number of cases or outbreaks caused by these serotypes deceased due to the development of personal and public hygiene. Nowadays in these regions the animal-borne zoonotic serotypes (e.g. S. Enteritidis) became more important because of their high prevalence in intensive animal husbandry. But these bacteria can also appear in fruits and vegetables. The fellow joined the scientific work of the Polytechnic University of Cartagena, Spain about the safety of plant-based products, where he could gain experience in microbiological laboratory exercises and theoretical calculations of statistics and modelling. The activities in the laboratory were part of the research lines already established at the host institution, being based on the protocols they have already implemented. Nonetheless, the fellow had the opportunity to design his own experiment, do the experimental work required and analysed the data within the context of a qualitative microbiological risk assessment. The main focus was on the heat resistance of two strains of zoonotic Salmonella spp. at different temperatures. Experiments were done using a reference strain and an extremely resistant variant to evaluate this rare phenotype. The experiments were executed using a Mastia thermoresistometer, a device patented by the host institution that provides more control when studying thermal treatments than traditional methods. The data was analysed using the principles of predictive microbiology, using the D-value as an estimate of heat resistance that provides insight into the bacterial behaviour. For this, the fellow used the bioinactivation software, developed within the host group. Through the work and results the fellow learned the principles of quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) and predictive microbiology, which was the aim for the EU-FORA programme.

Targeted Hygiene reduces surface transmission and infection risk for respiratory viruses

Abstract Background In public spaces, the importance of surface contamination in the transmission of respiratory viruses has been debated. This study aimed to compare the spread of a surrogate virus in a hotel lobby before and after a Targeted Hygiene intervention, and to quantify the reduction in risk of infection from respiratory diseases. Methods In a working hotel lobby, 13 fomites were seeded with a bacteriophage (Phi-X174) tracer at 8 am; 4 hours later 25 surfaces were swabbed to determine baseline tracer distribution and contamination levels. This was then repeated with the addition of a pre-determined Targeted Hygiene intervention performed 2 hours after seeding. Four replicate baseline and intervention trials were conducted, and data were compared for statistically significant (p &amp;lt; 0.05) differences. Risk of infection was estimated via Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment modelling. Results Following the Targeted Hygiene intervention there was a significant reduction in the spread of the tracer (contamination of 13% of sampled surfaces vs. 50% at baseline). Tracer concentrations (PFU/site) were significantly lower overall (9.1E+02 PFU vs. 5.8E+04 PFU, p &amp;lt; 0.0001), including surfaces that had not been disinfected. Our model estimates that the risk of infection from common respiratory viruses via surface transmission was reduced by 97%. Conclusions Extensive spread of surface contamination can occur in a hotel lobby in as little as 4 hours. This study demonstrates how a Targeted Hygiene intervention can significantly disrupt the journey of the germ, even on surfaces not cleaned and disinfected, resulting in a consequent reduction of infection risk via surface transmission of common respiratory infections. This demonstrates the value of carrying out effective hygiene interventions to those managing commercial spaces. Key messages • Targeted Hygiene can significantly reduce the spread of respiratory pathogens via surface transmission, providing a means for facilities managers to achieve high standards using a targeted approach. • The Targeted Hygiene approach can significantly reduce the risk of infection from common respiratory viruses via surface transmission in public spaces.

Cross-contamination in the kitchen: A model for quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

A quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for the cross-contamination transmission route in the kitchen (KCC) is presented. Bacteria are transmitted from contaminated (chicken) meat to hands, kitchen utensils, and other surfaces, subsequently contaminating a salad. The model aims to estimate the fraction of bacteria on the meat that is ingested due to cross-contamination, determine the importance of the different transmission routes, and assess the effect of scenarios (interventions) on the fraction ingested. The cross-contamination routes defined, bacterial source-to-recipient transfer fractions as available and derived from literature, and important characteristics (e.g., washing in cold water vs. hot water with soap) shaped the KCC model. With this model, 32 scenarios of an eight-step preparation of a "meat and salad" meal in a domestic kitchen were stochastically simulated. The "cutting board-salad" route proved dominant and the salad plays a major role in the final exposure. A realistic scenario (washing hands, cutting board, and knife with cold water after cutting the meat) estimates that a mean fraction of 3.2E-3 of the bacteria on the meat is ingested. In the case of "hand washing with hot water and soap" and "cutting board and knife replacement," the mean fraction ingested is 3.6E-6. For a subsequent meal, where the contaminated sources were kitchen fomites, the estimated mean fraction is 4.3E-4. In case of hamburger, part of the bacteria is unavailable for cross-contamination, resulting in a mean fraction ingested of about 5.4E-5. The role of the dishcloth in cross-contamination transmission proved to be minor.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment for the occurrence of listeriosis in Brazil due to the consumption of milk processed by pasteurization or thermosonication

This study aimed to estimate the risk of listeriosis from the consumption of pasteurized milk in Brazil, comparing conventional treatment with the technology of thermosonication. The Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model was developed, covering the entire milk production chain, from milking to the moment of consumption. In general, higher risks were observed in association with higher initial concentrations of the pathogen and the vulnerable population. The highest risk predicted (3.67 × 10−5) was related to the scenario considering the initial concentration range of L. monocytogenes between 4 and 6 log CFU/mL, with conventional treatment and considering the vulnerable population, resulting in one case of listeriosis every 27,248 servings. When considering thermosonication treatment, lower risks have been predicted. The scenario analysis indicated that the steps related to storage conditions in retail and at the consumer's home (post-processing steps) are the most influential in the associated risk, in all scenarios. The predictive parameters of inactivation related to the applied treatment also have a considerable influence on the risk. The results point to the influence of the stages of the dairy production chain and the thermosonication treatment applied in the food safety of milk, subsidizing information for industrial application and for regulatory agencies.

Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products

African swine fever (ASF) is currently threatening the global swine industry. Its unstoppable global spread poses a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading producers. Over the past years, there has been an increased global burden of ASF not only in swine but also swine products. Unfortunately, many pigs are not diagnosed before slaughter and their products are used for human consumption. These ASF-contaminated products are only a source for new ASF outbreaks when they are consumed by domestic pigs or wild boar, which may happen either by swill feeding or landfill access. This study presents a quantitative stochastic risk assessment model for the introduction of ASF into Spain via the legal import of swine products, specifically pork and pork products. Entry assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment and risk estimation were carried out. The results suggest an annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain of 1.74 × 10−4, the highest risk being represented by Hungary, Portugal, and Poland. Monthly risk distribution is homogeneously distributed throughout the year. Illegal trade and pork product movement for own consumption (e.g., air and ship passenger luggage) have not been taken into account due to the lack of available, accredited data sources. This limitation may have influenced the model's outcomes and, the risk of introduction might be higher than that estimated. Nevertheless, the results presented herein would contribute to allocating resources to areas at higher risk, improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Campylobacter in raw milk of dairy cows in Germany

The consumer demand for raw milk from dairy cows has increased and local sales via vending machines have been intensified. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the risk associated with the consumption of unboiled raw milk contaminated with Campylobacter by estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases. For this a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed that covered the whole supply chain. Information and data for model parametrization were obtained from research publications. Different probability distributions were used to represent the data whenever possible and probabilistic risk estimation was performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Simulations for outbreaks from single vending machines were performed using the developed QMRA baseline model. Further, different risk mitigation scenarios along the supply chain were evaluated to support risk managers in controlling Campylobacter. The analysis suggest a role for Campylobacter infections due to fecal contamination of cows’ udder. The model can easily be adapted and extended when additional data become available as it is provides in the harmonized exchange Food Safety Knowledge Exchange (FSKX) format.