Qualitative Risk Assessment Methods Research Articles

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of Sensor Maintenance Work Activity on The Suramadu Bridge Steel Box Girder Area

Introduction: The steel box girder of Suramadu Bridge is a confined work area with sensor maintenance activities and potential hazards. The purpose of this study was to determine the potential hazards and risk levels in the Suramadu Bridge steel box girder work area. Methods: This descriptive study involved cross-sectional data collection. This study used a qualitative risk assessment method. The primary data used in this research included interviews with informants, which consisted of five key informants from experts and five main informants from technicians. The secondary data of the study include a job safety analysis document issued by the Suramadu Bridge Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS). Risk assessment was performed by determining the level of likelihood and consequences using a risk analysis matrix. Data processing techniques and analysis are based on job safety analysis documents and interviews, whereas the risk analysis table is based on AS/NZS 4360 (2004). Results: The study results show that sensor maintenance work in the steel box girder area involves eight activities, 15 potential hazards, and 19 risks. Conclusion: The study concludes that, Out of the 19 identified risks, three risks (16%) were in the low-risk category, 15 risks (79%) were in the medium-risk category, and one risk (5 %) was in the high-risk category with the potential for fire.

Research on the risk evaluation of enterprises' carbon compliance failure

In order to mitigate global warming and help the country achieve its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets at the earliest possible time, the emission-control companies should accomplish the carbon compliance in accordance with relevant national policies and regulations. However, these companies frequently face the failure risk of carbon compliance subjected to various factors, including the national carbon quota policy, local carbon market situation, the verification of carbon offset projects, as well as the effectiveness of carbon reduction technologies. To help the enterprises avoid the risk of carbon-compliance failure and design rational carbon asset management strategy, in this research, the innovative combination of interpretive structural modeling (ISM), Bayesian network model, risk calculation and sensitivity analysis method was formulated. Firstly, the ISM method was used to establish a hierarchical relationship of risk factors that contribute to the failure of carbon compliance. Secondly, the probability prediction model of carbon-compliance failure risk based on the Bayesian network model was established by aid of the Netica software. Thirdly, the risk value of enterprise's carbon compliance failure was quantitatively calculated based on its production operation and carbon asset management. Finally, the sensitivity analysis method was used to identify critical risk factors and design risk control measures for six well-known domestic enterprises, laying good foundation for improving the success rate of carbon compliance and facilitating low-carbon green transformation. Compared to traditional qualitative risk assessment method, this combined approach is capable of realizing the quantitative evaluation of failure risk based on comprehensive investigation and analysis of the production and operational situation, which provides effective technical support to enhance enterprise's compliance awareness and improve low carbon competitiveness.

Application of Inorganic Nanomaterials in Cultural Heritage Conservation, Risk of Toxicity, and Preventive Measures.

Nanotechnology has allowed for significant progress in architectural, artistic, archaeological, or museum heritage conservation for repairing and preventing damages produced by deterioration agents (weathering, contaminants, or biological actions). This review analyzes the current treatments using nanomaterials, including consolidants, biocides, hydrophobic protectives, mechanical resistance improvers, flame-retardants, and multifunctional nanocomposites. Unfortunately, nanomaterials can affect human and animal health, altering the environment. Right now, it is a priority to stop to analyze its advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, the aims are to raise awareness about the nanotoxicity risks during handling and the subsequent environmental exposure to all those directly or indirectly involved in conservation processes. It reports the human-body interaction mechanisms and provides guidelines for preventing or controlling its toxicity, mentioning the current toxicity research of main compounds and emphasizing the need to provide more information about morphological, structural, and specific features that ultimately contribute to understanding their toxicity. It provides information about the current documents of international organizations (European Commission, NIOSH, OECD, Countries Normative) about worker protection, isolation, laboratory ventilation control, and debris management. Furthermore, it reports the qualitative risk assessment methods, management strategies, dose control, and focus/receptor relationship, besides the latest trends of using nanomaterials in masks and gas emissions control devices, discussing their risk of toxicity.

Review on risk assessments of dammed lakes

As one type of natural disaster, dammed lakes pose a serious threat to the safety of lives and properties downstream. Scientific risk assessments of dammed lakes are key for pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster rescue. However, due to the lack of basic information and uncertainty surrounding materials and loads, risk assessments of dammed lakes are more complex than those of artificial reservoir dams, and comprehensive assessment methods are lacking. Based on the evolution of dammed lake hazard chains, starting with the concept of a dammed lake risk assessment, this paper focused on six aspects: worldwide dammed lake databases, hazard assessments for landslide dams, breach mechanisms and breach processes, flood routing after landslide dam breaching, loss assessments, and risk mitigation measures. A comprehensive review was conducted on the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods around the world, as well as future outlooks.

ESG В ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОМ ДИСКУРСЕ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ РОССИИ: КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ РИСКИ

The relevance of the research is connected with the need to form its own policy and strategy for the development of the ESG agenda in the political space of Russia in the new international and geopolitical conditions. The current international and domestic political situation requires a special approach to understanding and identifying existing risks in the field of forming the ESG agenda. The purpose of the study is to identify the main risks in the political space within the framework of the ESG agenda formation process in modern Russia. In this research, we propose a broader understanding of political risk as a situation of uncertainty that can negatively and positively affect the political situation and stakeholders. The main research methods are content analysis, SWOT analysis, as well as qualitative risk assessment methods: the development of a probability and impact matrix. The results of the study show that a large number of stakeholders (representatives of various political groups and organizations) are involved in the discussion of the topic and the implementation of the ESG agenda in the Russian space. The study identified risk groups with the greatest impact, primarily legal and financial. Also, risks with a high degree of influence are the risks of strategic planning.

Risk management at the stages of the life cycle of NPP projects

The article discusses the issues of risk management at all stages of the life cycle of nuclear power plants. The definition and classification by types of risks that arise during the stages of the life cycle and operation of difficult objects such as nuclear power plants. Risk is anything that has the potential to affect each stage of a facility’s life cycle, performance, longevity, safety, or project budget. Thus, risk management is the process of identifying, classifying, prioritizing and planning risks. This article not only discusses the identification and classification by types of risks that arise during the construction and operation of such complex facilities as nuclear power plants, but also describes the methods for assessing and managing risks, taking into account the specifics of the construction of nuclear power facilities. There are two methods of risk assessment: quantitative and qualitative. The article describes such Quantitative methods as “Scenario Technology”, “Method - Sensitivity Analysis”, “Diagramming Technique - Tree Analysis”, as well as such Qualitative risk assessment methods as “Assessment of the probability of risk and its impact”, “Evaluation Matrix probability/risk of impact”, “Probability and impact”, “Risk classification and assessment of risk urgency. As a result of the analysis of existing risk management methods at all stages of the life cycle, the following conclusions were drawn: Risk identification can occur at any stage of the life cycle of a nuclear power plant, even after completion of construction work and delivery of the project. The maximum number of risks for all stages of the NPP life cycle should be identified at the stage of Sitting and design. The article proposes the format of the risk register table, provides a risk classification scheme, and develops a risk management flow chart at the stages of the NPP life cycle.

Of critical importance: Toward a quantitative probabilistic risk assessment framework for critical infrastructure

AbstractCritical comments can be made to the current risk assessment framework for critical infrastructure used in The Netherlands: the Dutch National Risk Assessment (DNRA). The DNRA uses a qualitative approach to risk assessment, based on, for example, ordinal risk scoring and the risk matrix. Even though qualitative risk assessment methods are internationally popular, there is no scientific evidence that a qualitative approach to risk assessment actually works. In the case of the DNRA, the main points of criticisms relate to the usage of a subjective concept of risk, dependency on subjective risk experts, the use of risk matrices and the absence of decision rules. To combat these criticisms, this article proposes a quantitative probabilistic risk assessment framework for critical infrastructure based upon four design principles, that a methodologically justified risk assessment method for critical infrastructure should meet. The proposal made for the quantitative risk assessment framework uses a Bayesian approach, a standardized measure for negligible risk in the form of a yearly mortality probability of 10−6, and Disability Adjusted Life Years to quantify human life years for social cost–benefit analysis. Finally, the proposed quantitative method is demonstrated in a case study.

Derivation of Water Quality Criteria for Carbamazepine and Ecological Risk Assessment in the Nansi Lake Basin.

Carbamazepine, as one of several pharmaceutical and personal care products, has gained much attention in recent years because of its continuous discharge in natural waters and toxicity to aquatic ecosystems. However, it is difficult to evaluate and manage carbamazepine pollution because of the lack of a rational and scientific Water Quality Criteria (WQC) of carbamazepine. In this study, the carbamazepine toxicity data of thirty-five aquatic species from eight taxonomic groups were selected, and the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) method was applied to derive the WQC for carbamazepine based on the Log-logistic model, which was 18.4 ng/L. Meanwhile, the occurrence and distribution of carbamazepine in the Nansi Lake basin was studied. Results showed that concentrations of carbamazepine in 29 sampling sites were in the range of 3.3 to 128.2 ng/L, with the mean of 17.3 ng/L. In general, the levels of carbamazepine in tributaries were higher than those in the lakes. In addition, qualitative and quantitative ecological risk assessment methods were applied to assess the adverse effect of carbamazepine on aquatic systems. The hazard quotient (HQ) method showed that there were 24 and 5 sampling sites, in which risk levels were low and moderate, respectively. The joint probability curve (JPC) method indicated that ecological risks might exist in 1.4% and 1.0% of surface water, while a 5% threshold and 1% threshold were set up to protect aquatic species, respectively. Generally, carbamazepine posed a low risk to the aquatic organisms in the Nansi Lake basin.

Study on quantification scheme of weight coefficient for electrical fire risk assessment of high-rise building

Electrical fire is a very important fire type in high-rise building fire. Therefore, it has high research value for risk assessment of electric fire in high-rise buildings. However, it is difficult to accurately obtain the weight index coefficient of electrical fire risk assessment by single qualitative or quantitative risk assessment method, so the reliability and objectivity of electrical fire risk assessment cannot be guarantee. In order to solve this problem, a method of using numerical simulation to obtain different types of fire risk data is proposed. Then, taking fire risk influencing factors as the research object, a comprehensive fire risk evaluation system is established. Through the comprehensive evaluation system, the electrical fire risk data are evaluated to determine the electrical fire risk weight coefficient. The results show that the fire risk quantification scheme of weight coefficient proposed in this paper can eliminate the subjectivity of traditional expert ratings. The proposed evaluation standard is a comprehensive evaluation system based on the numerical simulation and analytic hierarchy process. Above mentioned method can improve the reliability and accuracy of the weight coefficient of electrical fire risk assessment, and provide a theoretical basis for the research and classification of fire risk.

Extended Abstract to: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods for Carbon Storage: A Case Study for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage Facility

Extended Abstract to: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods for Carbon Storage: A Case Study for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage Facility

A Systematic Review on Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control in Academic Laboratory

Laboratory work, practical work, and practical work-related experiments are usually carried out in academic laboratories. Laboratory users are continuously exposed to hazardous substances and equipment in the laboratory. Limited research has been conducted on risk assessment in academic laboratories. However, there is no comprehensive review on hazard identification and risk assessment in the academic laboratory. Thus, this paper presents an overview of the academic laboratory’s risk assessment, focusing on the risk assessment method, type of hazard, and control measures applied to eliminate the hazard. A total of 61 publications were identified from Scopus, IEEE Explore, and manual searching. The study was guided by PRISMA, and after the screening and eligibility process, 13 publications were selected and reviewed. Fifteen risk assessment methods were identified in the publication, with 53.3 % applied semi-quantitative method, 26.7% qualitative method and 20% quantitative method. For hazard identification, 54% discussed specific hazards, while 46% discussed non-specific hazards. Most of the hazard discussed was chemical hazard due to the hazardous nature of the chemical, the usage of chemical to conduct experiments in the laboratory, and the type of laboratory assessed which is mainly chemical laboratory. Most of the publications used at least more than one control measure to overcome the risk. The most common control measure applied is the combination of engineering control, administrative control, and personal protective equipment (PPE). In future work, simple, fast, low cost and efficient risk assessment is needed to aid academic laboratories in further improving laboratory risk management. A combination of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods may be required to enhance the risk assessment process by utilizing the positive aspect of both approaches. An online risk assessment may be needed to effectively communicate the risk to laboratory users to eliminate or reduce accident cases in the academic laboratory.

Biological risk assessment: A challenge for occupational safety and health practitioners during the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic.

The COVID-19 global pandemic brought several challenges to occupational safety and health practice. One of these is the need to (re)assess the occupational risks, particularly, biological risks. The purpose of this work is to promote guidance to occupational safety and health practitioners when conducting a biological risk assessment in this context. The main steps of the biological risk assessment are explained with some inputs regarding the novelty posed by SARS-CoV-2 and an example of a qualitative risk assessment method is presented. Also, its application to two different activities was exemplified. In both cases, the assessment considered that vulnerable workers were working from home or in medical leave. The results showed low or medium risk level for the assessed tasks. For medium risk level, additional controls are advised, such maintain social distancing, sanitize instruments/equipment before use, use proper and well-maintained PPE (when applicable), and promote awareness sessions to spread good practices at work. Employers must be aware of their obligations regarding biological risk assessment and OSH practitioners must be prepared to screen and link the abundance of scientific evidence generated following the outbreak, with the technical practice. This paper could be an important contribution to OSH practice since it highlights the need to (re)assess occupational risks, especially biological risk, to ensure a safe return to work, providing technical guidance.

Estimating runway veer-off risk using a Bayesian network with flight data

Risk assessments in airline operations are mostly qualitative, despite abundant data from programmes such as flight data monitoring (FDM) and flight operations quality assurance (FOQA). In this paper, features relating to runway excursion causal factors are extracted from flight data from over 310,448 flights from Airbus A320 series aircraft flown on a European network. The data is combined with meteorological data to provide additional features.Bayesian networks are then learnt from the feature set, and two network learning algorithms are compared, Bayesian Search and Greedy Thick Thinning (GTT). Cross-validation of the resulting networks shows both algorithms produce similarly performing networks, and a subjective analysis concludes that the GTT algorithm is marginally preferred.The resulting networks produce relative probabilities, which airlines can use to quantitatively assess runway veer-off risk under different scenarios, such as different meteorological conditions and unstable approaches.This paper's main finding is that by utilising existing data sources, such as FDM and weather databases, airlines can create and use Bayesian networks alongside their existing qualitative risk assessment methods to provide quantitative risk assessment and understand the effect of different conditions on those risks. This is not possible with current methods in use by airlines.The method described can be extended to other operational safety risks, such as runway overrun.

Security Risk Modeling in Smart Grid Critical Infrastructures in the Era of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence

Smart grids (SG) emerged as a response to the need to modernize the electricity grid. The current security tools are almost perfect when it comes to identifying and preventing known attacks in the smart grid. Still, unfortunately, they do not quite meet the requirements of advanced cybersecurity. Adequate protection against cyber threats requires a whole set of processes and tools. Therefore, a more flexible mechanism is needed to examine data sets holistically and detect otherwise unknown threats. This is possible with big modern data analyses based on deep learning, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Machine learning, which can rely on adaptive baseline behavior models, effectively detects new, unknown attacks. Combined known and unknown data sets based on predictive analytics and machine intelligence will decisively change the security landscape. This paper identifies the trends, problems, and challenges of cybersecurity in smart grid critical infrastructures in big data and artificial intelligence. We present an overview of the SG with its architectures and functionalities and confirm how technology has configured the modern electricity grid. A qualitative risk assessment method is presented. The most significant contributions to the reliability, safety, and efficiency of the electrical network are described. We expose levels while proposing suitable security countermeasures. Finally, the smart grid’s cybersecurity risk assessment methods for supervisory control and data acquisition are presented.

Fuzzy hierarchy analytic method of enterprise supply chain financial risk

Supply chain finance refers to one or more companies upstream and downstream of the industrial supply chain. According to the core company of each node, based on actual transactions, use customized and standardized financing transaction methods to control capital flows or control assets. The right to provide comprehensive financial products and services between supply chain nodes. This article only needs to introduce the financial risk analysis of the enterprise supply chain based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. This paper proposes a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods to assess financial risks, and designs a financial risk assessment system by constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix. It also proposes a comprehensive judgment of the financial risk assessment method. The impact of various risk factors on financial services provides a basis for risk prevention. The experimental results of this paper show that the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation method is relatively objective and can effectively evaluate the financial risks of the enterprise supply chain. From the weight analysis, it can be concluded that the technical risk weight value is 0.47, which accounts for the largest proportion and is the most important risk.

Individual Dynamic Risk Analysis (iDRA): A systematic review and network model development

Dynamic Risk Analysis (DRA) is a continuous, adaptive process of risk evaluation that can play a fundamental role in the prevention, control and mitigation of new or changing risks in real time. In order to better understand DRA, a systematic review was conducted, followed by thematic analysis and the development of a network model. This model depicts weighted and directional connections to reveal the significance of information and decision making in managing dynamic risk. The research also reveals that people follow rules to a point but will then adapt to meet the challenge of unexpected circumstances. The influence of the environment is also evident, as it cannot only create unique risks but exacerbate existing ones. Throughout the literature there is some debate regarding the use of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods in managing dynamic risks. However, when allied with DRA, greater resilience may be added to safety management systems. Considering the factors identified in this research offers a new approach to the problem of managing new or changing risks. What this now means in practical terms is that there is potential to develop a syllabus for DRA training.

Application of the matrix approach in risk assessment

The risk assessment process is based on risk management. Risk assessment is, in principle, an entirely empirical decision-making process, based on risk assessors’ knowledge and experience, necessary to identify (a) hazard(s) as the cause for risk by using specific and well-known and recognized methods so far. Currently, there are a large number of methods recognized for risk assessment, which are mostly formed by various organizations and associations of engineers, usually in insurance companies. The paper presents the most pragmatic matrix (qualitative) risk assessment methods, such as: a 3x3 matrix (OHSAS), a 4x4 matrix (AS/NZS 4360) and a 5x5 matrix (MIL-STD-882B). The paper is significant in that the matrix approach in risk assessment is the basis for the development of risk assessment methods, regardless of the method of the group which they belong to.

Application of fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS methods for risk evaluation of gas transmission facility

Today, the use of risk assessment methods in various industries is expanding, as there are currently more than 70 different types of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods in the world. These methods are usually used to identify, control and mitigate the effects of hazards. Organizations should be able to select one or a combination of several types of risk assessment methods that are explored and studied in this article. In some cases, and for the direction of some sensitive processes, especially in the chemical industry, the production of explosive and combustion products such as the gas transmission company should be analyzed before determining the type of method of all methods and the best approach with regard to financial resources, requires qualitative or quantitative or qualitative and quantitative information, time limits, trained personnel limitations, the type of application of the risk identification method, the advantages, and disadvantages of each of these systems. Generally, acceptable risk levels are different for each organization or individual, depending on financial and economic resources, technological constraints, experienced human resources, discretion and management, and underlying risks such as hidden risks. Organizations usually require a system that, in addition to assessing their activities and processes can help them determine the risk situation, determine risk tolerance criteria, and accurately determine the exact risk of their processes, and ... lead them, depending on the complexity of the activity of each industry, the type of system that can bring them to the target. Is different. In this study, the assessment of the risks of gas Transmission facilities in the 9 regions, has been studied and reviewed. After identifying the various activities of the facility, which included three safety measures for equipment, personal and environmental health, and 28 sub-criteria, from previous studies and surveys, and staff comments. Then, using AHP, the fuzzy questionnaire was completed. Pairwise comparison of criteria and sub-criteria by experts and the use of excel software resulted in the weight of the sub-criteria and the compatibility rate. Then, using the verbal variables, five boost pressure facility with Fuzzy TOPSIS was ranked according to the relevant criteria, and the Rasht boost pressure gained the first rank.

Safety Analysis of an Automobile Workshop Using Qualitative Risk Assessment Method and Risk Analysis Through the Structural Equation Modelling

Abstract Automobile repair service hazards are risk factors for multiple severe accidents, and scientific proof reveals a relationship between repair activity hazards and accidents in the auto-mechanic workshop. In this research, the investigators approximated the impact of risk factors for automobile repair activities, using novel parameters, for severity of hazards and influences on subjects, and based on literature. Next, insights into the relationship between latent variables which are appraised by manifest variables using the structural equation modelling were pursued. The respondents answered questionnaires on probability of hazard occurrence, severity and some identified measured variables. The authors appraised 44 out of the 80 and 98 out of 99 distributed questionnaires for the first and second modules, respectively. The risk levels ranged between low and medium for the medium scale establishment due to the nature of work done in the automobile repair centre which exposes the workers to the level of risk. For the second module involving the use of structural equation modelling, the factor loading was the least for safety behaviours (0.06) and highest for machine efficiency (0.90). Of the fifteen hypotheses formulated six were accepted. It is concluded that the safety behaviour of workers depends safety on the workers in the firm irrespective of other factors such as management commitment to safety, environmental contributions and safety, communications. Understanding the impact of risk factors for automobile repair activities in workers is necessary in elevating awareness absent these parameters and to eliminate accidents.

Application of Models for Occupational Health Risk Assessment to a Resin Anchorage Production Workshop

Objective to take the occupational health risk assessment in a resin anchorage production workshop by three models for occupational health risk assessment, and explore a suitable risk assessment model for this kind of production unit. Methods the occupational health status and main chemical hazard factors of a resin anchorage production workshop were investigated. Qualitative risk assessment and semi-quantitative risk assessment (contact limit ratio method and comprehensive index method) were used for risk assessment, and the results were compared and analysed. Results Comparing with comprehensive index method, the evaluation result of qualitative risk assessment and contact ratio method were closer to each other, but there was a big difference between the two methods in the determination of phthalic anhydride. Conclusion the three risk assessment methods had their own merits and demerits, the evaluation results were also different. The semi-quantitative risk assessment-contact limit ratio method is more suitable for the occupational risk assessment in resin anchorage production workshop.