Qualitative Choice Models Research Articles

The Relationship of Qualitative Choice Model and International Migration, Employment and Mobile Telephone Subscriptions: A Study Within the EU Candidate Countries

Küreselleşme nedeni ile göç tüm Dünya’yı etkileyen bir konu haline gelmiştir. Dolayısıyla Dünya genelinde neredeyse tüm ülkeler göçten etkilenmektedir. İçinde bulunduğumuz yüzyıl uluslararası göçün artışına itafen ‘göç çağı’ olarak adlandırılabilir. Genel olarak insanların göç etmelerindeki temel nedenler ekonomik, sosyal, politik olmakla beraber, temelde daha iyi iş, daha iyi çalışma şartları kısacası daha iyi yaşama hayaline kavuşma isteğidir.  Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyeliğine aday ülkeler kategorisinde yer alan Türkiye, Arnavutluk, Bosna Hersek ve Kuzey Makedonya ülkeleri için 2002-2020 yıllık zaman dilimi dikkate alınarak işgücüne katılım ve mobil telefon abonelik sayısının uluslararası göç üzerindeki etkisinin araştırıldığını bu çalışma panel nitel tercih modellerinden panel logit ve panel probit modelleri ile tahmin edilecektir. Panel logit modeli tahmin sonuçları dikkate alındığında iş gücü ve mobil telefon abonelik değişkenlerinin, göçü açıklamada anlamlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. İşgücünde meydana gelebilecek bir artış, göçün artma olasılığını yaklaşık 6 kat daha fazla arttırmaktadır. Ancak mobil telefon abonelik değişkeni, göçü açıklamada anlamlı bulunmakla beraber, mobil kullanıcı sayısındaki artışın göç değişkenindeki artış olasılığını 2.04 kat azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Latent technology as an outcome of R&D

This paper focuses on a situation in which a firm decides to sell its non-commercialized technology to another firm rather than commercialize it (a latent entrepreneurial firm), and the other firm then adopts the appearance of an emergent entrepreneur. Using U.S. project data from firms funded through the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, we find using a qualitative choice model that firms that do not commercialize their newly developed SBIR-funded technology have a greater probability of selling their technology to another firm. We also identify other covariates with the probability that such a firm will sell their technology.

SOCIO-POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF INTERDEPENDENT REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: AN EMPIRICAL APPLICATION

Probability of forming regional trade agreements (RTAs) will be greater if two countries are closer in geographical distance. This paper extends the meaning of ‘closer’ by considering not only the geographical distance, but also the socio-political distance as well. This paper empirically analyzes whether a causal relation exists between the socio-political factors−the cultural affinity measured by common language, same religion, and a newly introduced composite index of cultural distance and political ties measured by the existence of a military alliance and the level of democracy–and the likelihood that RTAs will form. For such quantitative analysis, this paper applies the estimation techniques of a qualitative choice model (pooled Probit model with cluster-robust standard errors) to the panel data, which covers bilateral country-pairs among 66 countries between 1998 and 2009. In addition, the interdependence of the formation of RTA is also investigated by considering the third country effects. For a feasibility study, we estimate the probability of forming the proposed RTAs in the East Asian region as an empirical application. We find that the formation of RTAs has been strongly and significantly driven by the reduced cultural distance between members and influenced by the interdependence with third countries. Unlike the existing studies, however, the conventional socio-political determinants (religious similarity, military alliance, and democracy) do not significantly matter for the formation of interdependent RTAs. From the feasibility test for proposed RTAs in East Asia, we argue that building closer cultural linkages between countries in the region are prerequisite to realize the formation of the proposed RTAs such as the China-Japan (CJ), the Japan-Korea (JK), the China-Japan-Korea (CJK), the ASEAN[Formula: see text]3 (10 Association of SouthEast Asian Nations, China, Japan, and Korea), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Going public with public money

We analyze what we consider to be an unanticipated consequence of the SBIR program, namely, that firms, publicly funded through the SBIR program, are going public based on their new technology developed with support from the SBIR program. There is a conspicuous void with regard to publicly funded firms that do go public. Through the estimation of a qualitative choice model, we identify firm and project characteristics that are associated with an increased likelihood of a firm making (or planning to make) an initial public offering (IPO).

Optimal pricing strategies for a cluster of goods: own- and cross-price effects with correlated tastes

ABSTRACTContingent valuation methods are used to identify observed and unobserved preferences of goods and services. We apply these methods, in the context of multivariate probit analysis, to compute willingness to pay for each product of a cluster of goods conditional on having purchased another offered good of the cluster. We also provide a derivation of compensated cross-price elasticities based on unobservable factors, proving to be convenient in situations where cross-prices are not part of the demand equations. As goods belonging to a cluster typically embed correlated taste, their pricing strategy should consider all offered goods simultaneously rather than individually. Therefore, we solve for the set of optimal prices of a social planner whose objective function weights both the producer’s revenues and the consumer’s joint latent utility. We show an application to collegiate sports events, but these methods can be extended in a straightforward fashion to other goods and services. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.Abbreviations: C30, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, General; C35, Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; C40, Special Topics of Econometric and Statistical Methods; D12, Empirical Analysis of Consumer Economics; D40, Market Structure, Pricing, and Design; D60, Welfare Economics; Z20, Sport Economics

A new family of qualitative choice models: An application of reference models to travel mode choice

This paper considers the recently introduced family of reference models dedicated to non-ordered alternatives. The link function of reference models is that of the multinomial logit model (MNL) replacing the logistic cumulative distribution function (cdf) by other cdfs (e.g., Gumbel, Student). We determine all usual economic outputs (willingness-to-pay, elasticities,...). We also show that the IIA property generally does not hold for this family of models, because of their noninvariance to the alternative chosen as a reference. We estimate and compare five reference models to the MNL on a travel mode-choice survey: according to the chosen cdf, reference models lead to a better fit and retrieve consistent economic outputs estimations even when there is a high unobserved heterogeneity.

Formation of interdependent regional trade agreements and production networks

AbstractProduction networks (PNs) can be defined as a determinant of trade partnership. Deepening PNs may generate positive welfare effects and lead to a proliferation in the formation of interdependent regional trade agreements (RTAs). This paper theoretically develops the link between PNs and the formation of RTAs and empirically investigates the link by applying a qualitative choice model estimation methodology (probit) with panel data that covers bilateral country‐pairs among 147 countries between 2000 and 2010. We find that the RTA formation has been strongly driven by deepening PNs between members as well as with third countries. We also find that production network‐driven RTA interdependence is member specific.

On the Evaluation of Probability Forecasts: An Application to Qualitative Choice Models

Using data from Nielsen HomeScan scanner panel for calendar year 2003, we develop binary choice models to focus on the decision made by a sample of U.S. households to purchase various non-alcoholic beverages. We evaluate the probabilities generated through those qualitative choice models using an array of techniques such as expectation-prediction success tables; receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, Kullback-Leibler Information criteria; calibration; resolution (sorting); the Brier score; and the Yates partition of the Brier score. In using expectation-prediction success tables, we paid attention to sensitivity and specificity. Use of a naive 0.50 cut-off to classify probabilities resulted in the over or under estimation of sensitivity and specificity values compared to the use of the market penetration value. Area under the ROC curve is suggested as an alternative to the use of 0.5 cut-off as well as cut-off at market penetration level to classify probabilities, because this method treats a wide range of cut-off probabilities to come up with a coherent measure in classifying probabilities. The area under the ROC was highest for coffee for with-in-sample probabilities while it was highest for fruit juice model for out-of-sample probabilities. Kullback-Leibler Information Criteria which selects the model with the highest log-likelihood function value observed at out-of-sample observations (OSLLF) to evaluate probabilities show “closeness” or deviation of model generated probabilities to the true data generating probability overall, although this method does not offer classification of probabilities for events that occurred versus that did not. Again, with respect to OSLLF value, probabilities associated with fruit juice model outperform all other beverages. Forecast probabilities with respect to most of the beverage purchases were well calibrated. All resolution graphs were almost flat against a 45-degree perfect resolution graph, indicative of poor sorting power of choice models. The Brier score was lowest for fruit juices and the highest for low-fat milk. According to the calculated Brier score, probability forecasts for fruit juices outperformed other non-alcoholic beverages. Although the Brier score gave an overall indication of the ability of a model to forecast accurately, the components of the Yates decomposition of the Brier score provided a clearer and broader indication of the ability of the model to forecast. With-in-sample probabilities generated through logit model for coffee outperforms probabilities generated for other beverages based on area under the ROC curve, covariance between probabilities and outcome index and slope of covariance. Out-of-sample probabilities generated through logit model for fruit juice performs better than any other beverage category based on area under the ROC curve, Brier Score, and OSLLF value. In the event where researchers are confronted with alternative models that issue probability forecasts, the accuracy of probability forecasts in determining the best model can be measured through myriad of metrics. Even though traditional measures such as expectation-prediction success tables, calibration and log-likelihood approaches are still used, ROC charts, resolution, the Brier score and the Yates partition of the Brier score to evaluate probabilities generated through alternative models are highly recommended.

On the Failure of R&D Projects

There is an extensive literature on the success/failure of firm-funded R&D projects, but growing policy interest focuses on publicly funded R&D projects. We discuss this literature, which builds on a long stream of research of which Albert Rubenstein was a prime investigator, and use the literature to motivate the theoretical and empirical parts of the paper. Using data from 1878 Phase II R&D projects funded through the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, of which 624 had been discontinued prior to technical completion, we provide for the first time quantitative findings on the success/failure of publicly funded firm-performed R&D projects. Using a single-equation qualitative choice model, we find that prior R&D experience with the technology funded by SBIR projects, the amount of the SBIR award, and having a female as a principle investigator, other factors held constant, are all negatively related to the probability of project failure. In contrast, firm size is positively associated with project failure. We did not find evidence that human capital, experiential knowledge embodied in the firm conducting the R&D, or university involvement in the R&D project affected the probability of project failure. We discuss the implications of these findings for practice, policy, and further research.

Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Foods in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana

Genetic Modification (GM) is a rapidly growing technology that can improve productivity and profitability for producers. The study assessed consumer acceptance of GM foods in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The study is based on a survey conducted in three districts of the Greater Accra Region namely, Accra Metropolitan Assembly (AMA), Ga East (GE) and Tema Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) using purposive sampling method. A qualitative choice (Logit) model was used to estimate the effect of various factors on consumer acceptance of GM foods. The results obtained showed that, about 90% of the respondents had heard or read something about GM foods indicating a high level awareness among respondents’ in the Greater Accra Region. The results also show that 85% of the respondents were willing to accept GM foods. From the logit model, consumers with age groups 31-40 and above 50 years, were more likely to accept GM foods in the study area where as male respondents were less likely to accept GMFs. In addition, respondents with secondary and tertiary levels of education were likely to accept GM foods. Household size 1 to 5, reading product labels as well as understanding of science and technology were also significant variables in explaining consumer acceptance of GM foods in the Greater Accra Region. Obviously awareness and education was shown to be a necessary condition for acceptability of GM foods. The recommendation of this study is to promote effective education about the benefits of GM foods to increase the potential for acceptance.

Produtividade agrícola e segurança alimentar dos domicílios das regiões metropolitanas brasileiras

O crescimento agrícola pode afetar o nível de bem-estar de uma população mediante a possibilidade de elevação da oferta de alimentos, com reflexo em menores preços e na qualidade da dieta das pessoas. Assim, buscou-se, neste trabalho, verificar a relação entre a produtividade agrícola brasileira dos principais itens constituintes da dieta da população e a segurança alimentar dos domicílios das regiões metropolitanas brasileiras. Utilizou-se um modelo de escolha qualitativa, o probit, e dados das Pesquisas de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) de 1995-1996, 2002-2003 e 2008-2009 e da pesquisa de Produção Agrícola Municipal (PAM). Foram verificadas importantes relações entre a escolaridade do chefe do domicílio, a presença de pessoas menores de 18 anos na família e o fato de o domicílio obter renda per capita inferior a um salário mínimo e a segurança alimentar. Além disso, o crescimento da produtividade dos grãos, das verduras e legumes e das frutas associou-se à maior probabilidade de segurança alimentar em pelo menos um dos períodos analisados. Conclui-se que os ganhos de produtividade associam-se à maior segurança alimentar domiciliar, porém, em baixas proporções, devido à alta influência de fatores particulares aos domicílios, como escolaridade e renda.

What determines BITs?

Similar to bilateral or regional preferential trade agreements (PTAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) have proliferated over the past 50years. The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of BITs and of the likelihood of BITs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model, in a manner consistent with explaining PTAs. We develop the econometric specification for explaining the two based upon a general equilibrium model of world trade and foreign direct investment with three factors, two products, and trade and investment costs among multiple countries in the presence of national and multinational firms. The empirical model for BITs and PTAs is bivariate in nature and supports a set of hypotheses drawn from the general equilibrium model. Using the preferred empirical model for a sample of 12,880 country-pairs in the year 2000, we predict correctly 88% of all pairs with a BIT and a PTA, 81% with a BIT but no PTA, and 84% with a PTA but no BIT.

Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals

National early warning systems of Sahelian countries are mainly based on biophysics models to predict agricultural production shortages and prevent food crisis. The objective of this paper is to show that cereal market prices also bring useful information on future food availability that could complete current early warning disposals. Indeed, at any point in time prices are informative not only on the state of present food availability but also on agents' expectations about future availability. The research is based on the exploitation of the statistical properties of price series. It aims at detecting movements in the prices trend signalling a coming crisis. We first identify markets playing a leading role in price formation at the national and regional level through the estimation of VAR models. The second step consists in identifying crisis periods and then the price shocks characterises during the period which precedes a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The data set encompasses 50 markets belonging to three countries: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, over the period 1990-2008. The results show that past price shocks on a few number of leading marketplaces can help preventing coming crises.

The Endogeneity Of Association Agreements And Their Impact On Trade For Eastern Countries: Empirical Evidence For Romania

The main goal of regionalization is the creation of free trade areas and the guarantee for countries to accede to a widened market. Many studies dealing with the effects of regional free trade agreements on trade flows already exist in economic literature and the increase of regional agreements among nations has recently stressed the key role of regionalization. However, the effects of agreements on trade have not yet been clearly determined in those studies. Our research in this paper aims at reassessing the genuine role of associations. For this matter, we particularly study the association of Romania with European Union countries. Our econometric analysis based on qualitative choice models highlights in particular why European countries chose to conclude an association agreement with Romania, and stresses the fact that European Union countries select endogenously the conclusion of association agreements. We also find a 29% positive impact of the association agreement on Romanian export performances.

The Endogeneity of Association Agreements and their Impact on Trade for Eastern Countries: Empirical Evidence for Romania

The main goal of regionalization is the creation of free trade areas and the guarantee for countries to accede to a widened market. Many studies dealing with the effects of regional free trade agreements on trade flows already exist in the economic literature and the explosion of regional agreements among nations has recently stressed the key role of regionalization. However, the effects of agreements on trade have not yet been clearly determined in those studies. Our research in this paper aims at reassessing the genuine role of associations. For this matter, we particularly study the association of Romania with European Union countries. Our econometric analysis based on qualitative choice models highlights in particular why European countries chose to conclude an association agreement with Romania, and stresses the fact that European Union countries select endogenously the conclusion of association agreements. We also find a 0.29 positive impact of the association agreement on Romanian export performances.

Choice of Aircraft Fleets in the U.S. Domestic Scheduled Air Transportation System: Findings from a Multinomial Logit Analysis

The National Airspace System (NAS) in the United States had an inventory of 5,156 big jets at the end of December 2002, of which 4,085 were narrow bodies, and 1,071 were wide bodies. In addition, there were 1,180 regional jets and 660 turboprops in the system at that time. Empirical research reveals that there is a critical link between the flow of scheduled passenger services and the choice of aircraft used by the airlines in serving market pair demand. This relationship can be empirically retrieved without detailed knowledge of airlines' behavior and used for analyzing traffic patterns in the NAS. Using the T100 segment data from the first two quarters of 2004, a multinomial qualitative choice model is developed in this paper. This framework establishes empirical linkages among aircraft choice, and passenger flows, distance, types of airport hubs, network and time of the year. Estimated models demonstrate that both passengers and distance play important roles in selecting types of aircraft. Overall, the model is capable of predicting exact choices 51% of the time; with some flexibility of making a one-off mistake, the model is capable of making almost nine out of 10 choices correctly. Using the estimated coefficients from the qualitative choice model and varying assumptions (number of passengers, in particular), forecasts of aircraft operations by market segments and the fleet mix can easily be generated. These forecasts can then be used to understand the performance of the U.S. NAS.

Deriving and Testing Efficient Estimates of WTP Distributions in Destination Choice Models

Estimation of welfare measures is often a dominant driver in the empirical literature on nonmarket valuation. To this end, qualitative choice models based on random utility theory have been widely employed in outdoor recreation studies. A frequent goal of applied studies has been the estimation of welfare changes associated with site attribute changes at recreation sites in order to inform regulatory policy and resource management. We review the evolution of the methodology of random utility theory in this field with a focus on taste heterogeneity models and then focus on the recent proposal of specifying utility in the WTP-space (Train K, Weeks M (2005) Discrete choice models in preference space and willing-to-pay space. In: Scarpa R, Alberini A (eds) Applications of simulation methods in environmental and resource economics, chapter 1. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 1–16). Our empirical application is on outdoor alpine recreation data. We emphasize the efficiency and direct testing that using the maximum simulated likelihood estimator affords to practitioners using the WTP-space approach, and illustrate these with examples.

Liquidity and the choice to abandon production in declining industries

The study presents tests of several theoretical hypotheses that are potential determinants of the choice to abandon production in declining industries. A binary qualitative choice model of the abandonment decision is estimated. The probability of choosing abandonment is found to be positively related to the firm’s debt ratio, and negatively related to liquidity at the firm level, the level of efficiency of the operating unit, and uncertainty about liquidity at the operating unit level as measured by output and input price variability. Results are also presented for a multinomial choice model accounting for the full menu of capacity decisions open to the firm over time. The results are robust across all specifications as well as to alternative statistical assumptions

Determinan Tipe Kepemilikan Rumah Perkotaan di Indonesia: Model Pilihan Kualitatif Menggunakan Data Susenas 2001

The development of housing study in Indonesia is relatively behind compared with the progressivity of this study in other countries. This study is a preliminary study on housing sector in Indonesia which concerns with the factors determining the probability of a person to own a house which is also known as housing tenure choice. This study will also reveal the factors that affect the expectation of a household that doesn't own a house to own one. The explanatory variables in this model include age variables, highest educational achievement, and the category of job status of the household head marital status, number of household members, and access to housing credit (Kredit Pemilikan Rumah) which affects the probability and expectation of a household to own a house. To get the location aspect, we also estimate our model for urban DKI Jakarta, Java with the exception of DKI Jakarta, and Sumatera.The data utilized in this study comes from Indonesia Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) 2001 which is the result of Indonesian Statistical Bureau (BPS) survey in all the provinces in Indonesia. This study focuses in urban area in Indonesia and use qualitative choice model in the estimation process. This study also focuses on multiple choices estimation process with logit model.The result shows that the proportion of Indonesian households which live in urban area and own a hose is 73% of the total households which is very big. The proportion of the households with rent/contract is 15.8%. DKI Jakarta has the biggest proportion of households with rent/contract which is about 31.4%. The estimation results of urban house ownership choice model in Indonesia show that number of household members, marital status, age of the head of the household and access to housing credit have a positive impact on the probability of a household to own a house (non rent/contract).From the study of the expectation of a household that doesn't own a house to own one we found that only 30% of Indonesian urban households have expectation to own a house for the next five years. Estimation of household expectation function to own a house shows that marital status, education level, income, and head of the household that works in formal sector have positive and significant impacts on the probability of a household to expect to own a house in the next 5 years. One of the most important results concerns KPR and government policy concerning KPR. The Data shows that only 6.37% of the urban households in Indonesia utilize this facility. Down payment and increase in the household expenses as a consequence of credit payment are two of the major factors causing low access of the