In recent years, real-time hybrid testing (RTHT) has been applied for the dynamic testing of high-speed trains running on bridges. A guarantee of stability for the RTHT system is essential to achieve a safe and reliable result. However, the inherent time-varying characteristics of the vehicle-bridge coupled system pose challenges to RTHT stability prediction. This study aims to develop a stability prediction method specifically tailored for time-varying RTHT system. Firstly, the vehicle-bridge coupled RTHT was modelled using a discrete state–space representation with a comprehensive consideration of the time-varying vehicle-bridge interaction and the dynamics of the shaking table. Subsequently, a time-varying stability criterion was derived from the periodic time-varying state matrix, forming the basis for a relative stability prediction method. The validity of the proposed method was confirmed through simulations and experiments employing a single-axle interaction within the vehicle-bridge coupled RTHT system. The coupled system consisted of a quarter-car model and simply supported beams were used as an example to evaluate the stability and accuracy of the time-varying RTHT. The results showed that the stability increased with increasing vehicle speed. Reducing the pure time delay of the shaking table improved both stability and accuracy. Increasing the effective frequency of the shaking table improved the accuracy but may reduce the stability of the RTHT.
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