Pup Production Research Articles

Surveillance for Toxoplasma gondii, Brucella spp., and Chlamydia spp. in Australian Fur Seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) Abortions.

The intracellular pathogens Toxoplasma gondii, Brucella spp., and Chlamydia spp. are all known causative agents of abortion in wildlife. Both T. gondii and Brucella spp. have been identified in marine mammal abortions and a limited number of studies have detected their potential presence in Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), but data are sparse for these pathogens in Australian fur seal breeding colonies. Australian fur seals have been shown to have a high degree of third-trimester pregnancy loss in one of their largest breeding colonies. Additionally, pup production has declined at the largest breeding colony for the species. This study surveyed the presence of T. gondii, Brucella spp., and Chlamydia spp. as potential infectious causes of this reproductive loss. Aborted fetuses were collected from two of the largest breeding colonies for the species, Seal Rocks (n=19) and Kanowna Island (n=34). These were examined grossly and through histopathological evaluation, in conjunction with molecular testing for all three pathogens. Placentas were collected from full-term births during the pupping season from Kanowna Island (n=118). These were used to compare the molecular prevalence of the three pathogens in presumed successful pregnancies. Chlamydia spp. was not detected in aborted fetuses in this study. Brucella spp. was detected with PCR in both aborted fetuses (9.4%) and placentas from full-term births (3.4%), and T. gondii was detected using routine histopathology (n=2/53), immunohistochemistry (n=3/4), and PCR (n=4/53) in tissues from aborted fetuses. Toxoplasma gondii was present in 7.5% of third-trimester abortions and absent from all full-term placentas. Brucella spp. was detected in both aborted fetuses and full-term placentas. This is the first description of vertical transmission of T. gondii in a marine mammal from the southern hemisphere.

An evaluation of potential inbreeding depression in wild Mexican wolves

AbstractEstimates of the influence of inbreeding on the fitness of wild animals can guide genetic conservation in rare species. Conservation genetics is important in Mexican wolves (Canis lupus baileyi) because the current population descended from 7 founders and mean inbreeding is relatively high. As an endangered subspecies, Mexican wolves are actively managed using select conflict avoidance measures and by placing captive‐born foster pups into wild litters. We obtained data on inbreeding coefficients of wolf pups and adults based on a pedigree dating to 1957 and data on reproduction for wild wolf packs during 1998–2022. We estimated trends in inbreeding coefficients and the associations between dam, sire, and pup inbreeding coefficients and pup recruitment to age 9 months, and assessed 3 components of recruitment: probability of producing a litter, number of pups produced, and recruitment conditional on successful reproduction. We generated estimates using generalized linear mixed models and bootstrapped estimates of confidence intervals. Mean inbreeding coefficients were high (0.227, SD = 0.047) in the wild population, but we detected no significant evidence of an increase during 2010–2022. Overall, the net associations of dam, sire, and pup inbreeding coefficients with our primary fitness metric, pup recruitment to age 9 months, did not differ from zero. While high inbreeding coefficients are a concern for the long‐term recovery of the subspecies, the stable level of inbreeding, lack of evidence for inbreeding depression, high pup production (5.1 pups/litter, SD = 1.64), and rapid population growth (384% increase from 2010–2022) indicate that inbreeding has not prevented rapid progress towards recovery goals under current management practices.

Inherent versus random variation in fitness of elephant seals: offspring quality and quantity

Variation in reproductive success is the basis of evolution and allows species to respond to the environment, but only when it is based on fixed individual variation that is heritable. Several recent studies suggest that observed variation in reproduction is due to chance, not inherent individual differences. Our aim was to quantify inherent versus neutral variation in fitness of northern elephant seal ( Mirounga angustirostris (Gill, 1866)) females, including both quality and quantity of their offspring. Using 44 years of observations at Año Nuevo in California, we assembled lifetime pup production of 1065 individual females and mass at weaning for 2120 of their pups. Females varied significantly in mean lifetime mass of their pups, with 28% of the variance due to fixed individual differences among mothers. Variation was repeatable over 6 years of a mother’s lifetime and heritable ( h = 0.48). Moreover, pup mass at weaning was associated with future lifetime fitness, since larger pups had a higher chance of surviving to breed. Larger pups, however, did not produce more offspring once breeding, and lifetime pup production was not heritable. Traits related to offspring quality in elephant seals were inherently different among females, but variation in pup production was neutral.

Effects of the 2014-2016 marine heatwave on Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and implications for top-down forcing

Marine heatwaves can have rapid and wide-reaching biological and economic impacts. We explored the effects of a recent severe marine heatwave on Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Alaska using biennial counts of pups and non-pups from aerial surveys of terrestrial sites between 2013 and 2019. We combined count data with a bioenergetic model to explore the potential effects of Steller sea lion responses to the heatwave on prey populations. Pup production was anomalously low in the eastern and central Gulf in 2017 following the end of the heatwave in 2016, with a 33.5 and 17.4% reduction from 2015 values respectively. Based on the energetic costs of pregnancy and lactation, these reductions in pup production represent an average difference of 6121 metric tons of prey between 2015 and 2017. Non-pup counts were anomalously low in Southeast Alaska in 2017 and in the central and eastern Gulf in 2019. No effects were detected in the western Gulf, although they could have been masked by the variability in count estimates. Such changes in non-pup abundance had the potential to induce changes in predation pressure on the order of thousands to tens of thousands of metric tons of prey, even when responses were assumed to persist for a relatively short time (1 yr or less). In addition to these short-term effects, declining counts of non-pups from the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska occurred following the 2014-2016 heatwave, suggesting more lasting effects on Steller sea lion populations and top-down forcing from these regions.

Vulnerability to fluctuations in prey and predation landscape in a central place foraging marine predator

IntroductionHuman-induced environmental change is driving a global redistribution of biodiversity, resulting in shifting prey and predation landscapes. These shifting landscapes can lead to changes in behavior, health, and vital rates, with potential implications for population dynamics.MethodsIn the present study, a state-dependent life-history theory model was developed to investigate the individual- and population-level responses of Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) to changes in prey availability and at-sea mortality risk.ResultsRates of pregnancy, pup nursing, and abortion were unaffected by prey availability in the simulated population. Likewise, on-land and at-sea durations were largely unaffected by prey availability, with more pronounced affects for nonreproductive and pregnant females than for lactating females. There was a strong influence of prey availability on the proportion of females that were concurrently pregnant and lactating, largely due to an increase in pup abandonments under low prey availability scenarios. This effect on pup abandonments also had flow on effects for pup recruitment. Increasing at-sea mortality risk resulted in greater offspring losses due to maternal death. The combined impact of prey availability and at-sea mortality risk on the number of simulated female offspring reaching sexual maturity was substantial.DiscussionConsequently, our results suggest high vulnerability of the Australian fur seal population to shifting prey and predation landscapes. These results indicate a need for continued monitoring of Australian fur seal pup production and population dynamics in the face of rapid environmental change.

Current status, biology, threats and conservation priorities of the vulnerable Mediterranean monk seal

The Mediterranean monk seal Monachus monachus is one of the most endangered marine mammals on Earth. The species has made a notable recovery during the past 10 yr and is now considered Vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Its global population comprises 3 subpopulations: 2 in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and one in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Global estimated abundance is 815-997 individuals, including 443-599 mature individuals; annual pup production averages 170.5. Over the past decade, increased research efforts have shed new light on various aspects of the species’ biology and life history, including habitat and habitat use, vital rates, communication and genetics. The main threats to the species are (1) terrestrial and marine habitat loss and degradation that has or is resulting in the occupation of unsuitable habitat and limited prey availability, (2) negative interactions with fisheries that result in accidental entanglement or deliberate killings in response to damages to catches and/or fishing gear, (3) unpredictable threats, including cave collapses and mass mortality events and (4) pollution. Priority conservation actions for the species include (1) strengthening the legal framework for the protection of the terrestrial and marine habitat of the species, (2) effective protection of the species and its terrestrial and marine habitat, (3) scientific population and habitat monitoring, (4) rescue and rehabilitation of injured, orphaned and sick pups to increase neonatal survival rates, (5) public awareness and education, (6) monitoring and mitigating negative seal-fishery interactions and (7) expansion of the species’ current geographic range in the Atlantic Ocean.

Effects of Refined Handling on Reproductive Indices of BALB/cJ and CD-1 IGS Mice.

Current mouse handling methods during cage change procedures can cause stress and potentially compromise animal welfare. Our previous study of breeding C57BL/6J mice found modest increases in pup production and a significant reduction in preweaning litter losses when mice were handled using a tunnel as compared with a tail-lift with padded forceps. The current study evaluated how these 2 handling methods affected reproduction by 2 additional mouse strains, BALB/cJ (a low- to intermediate-fecundity strain) and CD-1 IGS (a high-fecundity stock). We predicted that refined handling would have minimal effects on the high-fecundity line with a satisfactory production rate and greater effects on the low-fecundity line. Handling method (tunnel compared with tail-lift) was randomly assigned to monogamous breeding pairs of mice. Reproductive metrics (litter size at birth and weaning, numbers of litters, litter attrition, between-litter intervals, pup wean- ing weight, and sex ratio) were prospectively monitored for 80 BALB/cJ and 77 CD-1 pairs that were bred continuously for 6 mo. Both strains of mice were highly productive, exceeding previously published breeding data. However, neither strain demonstrated operational or statistically significant differences between handling methods for any reproduction metric. As we detected no negative effects in these 2 strains and the benefits are clear in other strains, refined handling should be considered for all breeding mice.

Earthquake impacts on a protected pinniped in New Zealand

Abstract The impacts of natural disasters on marine mammals are poorly understood and difficult to study, which can hamper management responses following such events. This study provides the first distribution and abundance assessment of New Zealand fur seal (NZFS: Arctocephalus forsteri) colonies around Kaikōura, New Zealand, since a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in November 2016 caused substantial changes to both the local marine and terrestrial environments, and led to the reconstruction of a major highway that runs adjacent to NZFS colonies. Mark–recapture and direct counts in the 2022–2023 breeding season estimated pup production for NZFS breeding colonies along the Kaikōura coast. Using established multipliers, pup estimates were used to provide the first comprehensive population estimate for Kaikōura's NZFS population since the earthquake. Three new colonies and three new subcolonies were assessed and recorded, additional to reassessments of two established colonies. Overall, Kaikōura's NZFS population has grown and spread post‐earthquake, with an upper total population estimate of between 21,560 and 28,327 animals in the 2022–2023 breeding season. Some sites, such as Lynch's Reef, appear to have benefited from earthquake‐induced coastal uplift, with pup production increasing. Contrastingly, the estimated 2,401 (±99) pups produced at Ōhau Point in 2023 is similar to pre‐earthquake estimates. This indicates that the earthquake has disrupted previously documented growth at this site. The distribution of NZFS breeding at Ōhau Point has also changed substantially since the last pre‐earthquake assessment. From these findings, alterations to the Ōhau Point New Zealand Fur Seal Sanctuary and similar protections at other locations on the Kaikōura coast are suggested, as greater numbers of NZFSs are now accessible to human interaction and disturbance. The results demonstrate both how natural disasters and subsequent infrastructure modifications can impact coastal species and how conservation measures may need to be amended accordingly.

Intraperitoneal administration of mouse kisspeptin-10 to mice during estrus stage induces pseudopregnancy.

A simple method for producing pseudopregnant mice supports pup production. In this study, pregnant ICR were obtained mice without mating with vasectomized mice via administration of mouse Kisspeptin-10 (mKp-10) and transferring blastocysts to the uterus. Blastocyst transfer after mKp-10 administration to mice with gapping and reddish pink vagina resulted in 65.2% (15/23) pregnancies, and 39.1% (34/87) of the transferred blastocysts showed full-term growth. Vaginal smears were observed for accurate estrus cycle determination, and subsequent administration of mKp10 to mice during the estrus stage and blastocyst transfer resulted in 95.2% (20/21) pregnancies and 50.7% (104/205) birth rates. Regarding 2-cell transfer after administration of mKp-10, 100% (8/8) of the mice became pregnant, and 45.0% (36/80) of the embryos were born. Administration of mKp-10 to mice during the estrus stage is a convenient way to generate pseudopregnant mice.

Long-term decline in body condition of female Australian fur seals: potential causes and implications

The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) population is still recovering from the over-exploitation of the commercial-sealing era (18th and 19th centuries). While the population is considered to be only < 47% of its pre-harvest size, it now represents the greatest resident marine predator biomass in the south-eastern Australian marine ecosystem. The region is experiencing rapid environmental change and, as a keystone predator species, the AUFS is an indicator of ecosystem health. In the present study, the body mass, standard length and body condition index (BCI) were analysed between 1997-2021 in adult female AUFS provisioning pups on Kanowna Island (northern Bass Strait), the third largest colony for the species. While substantial inter-annual fluctuations were observed, there was no temporal trend in standard length during the 23-year study period. In contrast, body mass and, consequently, BCI decreased significantly, suggesting the population is experiencing changing nutritional conditions. While these changes do not appear to be due to competition with commercial fisheries or population expansion, weak but significant negative relationships were observed between BCI and 1-year lagged sea surface temperature and summer zonal winds in the Bonney Upwelling region, and both current- and 2-year lagged Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These findings suggest the BCI of AUFS may continue to decline under predicted climate change conditions. While a lack of a concurrent decline in pup production could indicate a degree of nutritional tolerance or flexibility in energy allocation, further monitoring is required to assess decreases in reproductive parameters (e.g., birth mass, pre-weaning growth rates) or vital rates, which would be expected with continued nutritional stress.

Age-specific reproduction in female Steller sea lions in Southeast Alaska.

Age-, region-, and year-specific estimates of reproduction are needed for monitoring wildlife populations during periods of ecosystem change. Population dynamics of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Southeast Alaska varied regionally (with high population growth and survival in the north vs. the south) and annually (with reduced adult female survival observed following a severe marine heatwave event), but reproductive performance is currently unknown. We used mark-resighting data from 1006 Steller sea lion females marked as pups at ~3 weeks of age from 1994 to 1995 and from 2001 to 2005 and resighted from 2002 to 2019 (to a maximum age of 25) to examine age-, region-, and year-specific reproduction. In the north versus the south, age of first reproduction was earlier (beginning at age 4 vs. age 5, respectively) but annual birth probabilities of parous females were reduced by 0.05. In an average year pre-heatwave, the proportion of females with pup at the end of the pupping season peaked at ages 12-13 with ~0.60/0.65 (north/south) with pup, ~0.30/0.25 with juvenile, and ~0.10 (both regions) without a dependent. In both regions, reproductive senescence was gradual after age 12: ~0.40, 0.40, and 0.20 of females were in these reproductive states, respectively, by age 20. Correcting for neonatal mortality, true birth probabilities at peak ages were 0.66/0.72 (north/south). No cost of reproduction on female survival was detected, but pup production remained lower (-0.06) after the heatwave event, which if sustained could result in population decline in the south. Reduced pup production and greater retention of juveniles during periods of poor prey conditions may be an important strategy for Steller sea lions in Southeast Alaska, where fine-tuning reproduction based on nutritional status may improve the lifetime probability of producing pups under good conditions in a variable and less productive environment.

Decline of one of the southernmost northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) colonies and its relationship with a warm sea environment

Over several decades, air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) have increased in the northeastern Pacific, as has the frequency of large-scale warm anomalies in SST. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of these warm anomalies on the production of northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris; NES) pups from the colony of the San Benito Archipelago, located in the central-western region of the Baja California Peninsula. Pup and adult female counts from the 2002 to 2019 breeding seasons were compiled to determine the trend in the abundance of the colony and its current state. In addition, birth rate variations during the study period were assessed. Likewise, the presence of warm anomaly events in the SST in the potential foraging area of adult females (PFA) was analyzed. The San Benito colony decreased at an average annual rate of 3.6% from 2002 to 2019, with an estimated abundance of 4,723 individuals (95% CI: 3,821–5,615) in 2019. However, the birth rate remained constant (mean 0.68 ± 0.08), even though several warm anomaly events associated with El Niño and The Blob phenomena were detected in the PFA. Our results suggest that large-scale warm anomalies in the SST do not severely impact NES pup production, thus the decline of the San Benito colony since the late 1900s could be due to other environmental factors, such as the increase in air temperature associated with climate change.

Phenology of harbor seal pupping and the influence of weather on pup counts, investigated by UAV

AbstractSurveys of harbor seals to assess pup production in Denmark are conducted at the assumed breeding season peak between 9 and 15 hr at winds <10 m/s, with no precipitation at least 6 hr before observations and at low tide in areas with a significant tidal range. Harbor seal pups can swim immediately after birth, so the fraction available for counting likely varies according to conditions. In the Limfjord, a separate harbor seal population is living in a large inlet in northern Denmark where >95% of pups are born at two haul‐out sites situated 4 km apart. Drone surveys of these two haul‐outs were conducted throughout the breeding seasons during 2017–2019. The effects of weather conditions and timing of surveys on counts were analyzed by generalized additive mixed models. The best‐performing model included date and wind speed. Pup counts grew from the onset of the observation period and were predicted to peak on June 22. Wind speed had a linear relationship with pup counts and > 50% more pups were counted at 5 m/s than at 1 m/s. To achieve representative pup counts careful consideration of survey conditions and possibly correction for these effects are necessary.

Pacific Gulls (Larus pacificus) as Potential Vectors of Coxiella burnetii in an Australian Fur Seal Breeding Colony.

Recently, Coxiella burnetii has been described as a novel pathogen potentially contributing to decreased pup production in Australian fur seals (AusFS, Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus). Pacific gulls (PGs, Larus pacificus) are known to scavenge AusFS placental material during the fur seal breeding season. It is hypothesized that PGs may act as vectors for this pathogen. In the present study, cloacal swabs, oral swabs and serum were collected from PGs on Kanowna Island (KI, an AusFS breeding colony) and a nearby island, Seal Island (SI), not occupied by pinnipeds. All sample sets were evaluated with qPCR for the com1, htpAB and IS1111 markers. Most oral and cloacal swabs from KI tested positive on both the com1 (94.1%; 88.2%) and htpAB targets (76.5%; 76.5%). Amplification was very low from the SI oral swabs and cloacal swabs. Only the KI serum samples had amplification (17.7% for both com1 and htpAB). There was no IS1111 amplification in either colony. The results demonstrate that PGs can potentially act as vectors for the spread of C. burnetii. In some birds, C. burnetii was detectable in the serum, indicating that gulls can experience bacteraemia. It appears that different feeding strategies in the same species within the same ecosystem can have profound effects on the prevalence of pathogens. Further studies are required to better understand the epidemiology and potential risks of this organism.

Whisker stable isotope analysis used for proactive management of recolonising New Zealand sea lion population

New Zealand sea lions Phocarctos hookeri have experienced a 46% decline in pup production in the last 25 yr, driven by female deaths in trawl fisheries around the Auckland Islands. The only colony for this species recorded away from the subantarctics and this fishing impact is on Stewart Island. Despite the Stewart Island colony only being 1% of the species, it is significant, as it is currently the only stable population and is located in an area away from most on-land human impacts, although not away from potential fisheries pressures. To ensure this colony’s persistence, more information is needed on these sea lions’ diet, foraging behaviour, and local fisheries interactions for management that promotes their protection. The present research investigates the long-term foraging behaviour, and infers the diet, of female New Zealand sea lions on Stewart Island using their known foraging behaviour and linking this to their proximal and full-length whisker stable isotope values. Previous foraging studies found that these animals have small foraging areas with consistent mesopelagic diving behaviours. These behaviours, linked with their whisker stable isotope values, show consistency in foraging behaviour and inferred diet across their entire adult life. Currently, there are no known commercial fisheries bycatch issues for sea lions around Stewart Island. However, precautionary measures ensuring fisheries pressure does not increase and management to safeguard that deepwater trawling and finfish aquaculture remain absent would be proactive steps that should be undertaken for the protection of this new colony and for this Endangered species as a whole.

Fasting durations of Steller sea lion pups vary among subpopulations-evidence from two plasma metabolites.

Geographic differences in population growth trends are well-documented in Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), a species of North Pacific pinniped listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1990 following a marked decline in population abundance that began during the 1970s. As population growth is intrinsically linked to pup production and survival, examining factors related to pup physiological condition provides useful information to management authorities regarding potential drivers of regional differences. During dam foraging trips, pups predictably transition among three fasting phases, distinguished by the changes in the predominant metabolic byproduct. We used standardized ranges of two plasma metabolites (blood urea nitrogen and β-hydroxybutyrate) to assign pups to fasting categories (n = 1528, 1990-2016, 12 subpopulations): Recently Fed-Phase I (digestion/assimilation-expected hepatic/muscle glycogen usage), Phase II (expected lipid utilization), transitioning between Phases II-III (expected lipid utilization with increased protein reliance), or Phase III (expected protein catabolism). As anticipated, the majority of pups were classified as Recently Fed-Phase I (overall mean proportion = 0.72) and few pups as Phase III (overall mean proportion = 0.04). By further comparing pups in Short (Recently Fed-Phase II) and Long (all other pups) duration fasts, we identified three subpopulations with significantly (P < 0.03) greater proportions of pups dependent upon endogenous sources of energy for extended periods, during a life stage of somatic growth and development: the 1) central (0.27 ± 0.09) and 2) western (0.36 ± 0.13) Aleutian Island (declining population trend) and 3) southern Southeast Alaska (0.32 ± 0.06; increasing population trend) subpopulations had greater Long fast proportions than the eastern Aleutian Islands (0.10 ± 0.05; stabilized population). Due to contrasting population growth trends among these highlighted subpopulations over the past 50+ years, both density-independent and density-dependent factors likely influence the dam foraging trip duration, contributing to longer fasting durations for pups at some rookeries.

An automated work-flow for pinniped surveys: A new tool for monitoring population dynamics

Detecting changes in population trends depends on the accuracy of estimated mean population growth rates and thus the quality of input data. However, monitoring wildlife populations poses economic and logistic challenges especially in complex and remote habitats. Declines in wildlife populations can remain undetected for years unless effective monitoring techniques are developed, guiding appropriate management actions. We developed an automated survey workflow using unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to quantify the number and size of individual animals, using the well-studied Scandinavian harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) as a model species. We compared ground-based counts using telescopes with manual flights, using a zoom photo/video, and pre-programmed flights producing orthomosaic photo maps. We used machine learning to identify and count both pups and older seals and we present a new method for measuring body size automatically. We evaluate the population’s reproductive success using drone data, historical counts and predictions from a Leslie matrix population model. The most accurate and time-efficient results were achieved by performing pre-programmed flights where individual seals are identified by machine learning and their body sizes are measured automatically. The accuracy of the machine learning detector was 95–97% and the classification error was 4.6 ± 2.9 for pups and 3.1 ± 2.1 for older seals during good light conditions. There was a clear distinction between the body sizes of pups and older seals during breeding time. We estimated 320 pups in the breeding season 2021 with the drone, which is well beyond the expected number, based on historical data on pup production. The new high quality data from the drone survey confirms earlier indications of a deteriorating reproductive rate in this important harbour seal colony. We show that aerial drones and machine learning are powerful tools for monitoring wildlife in inaccessible areas which can be used to assess annual recruitment and seasonal variations in body condition.

Pup production of Harp Seals in the Northwest Atlantic in 2017 during a time of ecosystem change

Photographic and visual aerial surveys were conducted off Newfoundland and Labrador (”the Front”), and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (“Gulf”) in March 2017 to estimate pup production of Northwest Atlantic harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Traditionally, harp seals pup (whelp) in three general areas; the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence, and off the east coast of Newfoundland and Labrador. After extensive reconnaissance, four whelping areas were identified: one in each of the southern and northern Gulf, and two at the Front. We estimated a total pup production in 2017 of 746,500 (SE=89,900, CV=12%), the lowest since 1994. Most (96%) pups were born at the Front (714,600 pups, SE=89,700). Very few pups were born in the southern Gulf (18,300, SE=1,500) and no whelping concentrations were observed prior to March 5, approximately one week later than previously observed. This is far lower than the 2012 survey estimate of 115,500 (SE=15,100) for the same area. Pup production in the northern Gulf was also lower than in previous years, at 13,600 (SE=3,000). The timing of births in the southern Gulf was much later than normal in 2017, and unusually early pupping at the Front suggests that some females from the Gulf herd may have moved to the Front to whelp due to a lack of ice suitable for pupping (i.e., thin first year) in the Gulf. Harp seals whelp in large concentrations. While one large whelping concentration formed at the Front, approximately 15% of the pupping at the Front occurred in small, dispersed groups which formed later than observed in previous years. Given the unusual ice conditions, distribution of whelping seals, and timing of pupping, assessing the results of the 2017 surveys relative to other estimates of pup production in the Northwest Atlantic is challenging and indicates the ongoing difficulties of assessing a population that is being impacted by climate change.

Guadalupe fur seal pup production predicted from annual variations of sea surface temperature in the southern California Current Ecosystem

AbstractWe evaluated the effects of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the southern California Current Ecosystem on the annual Guadalupe fur seal (Arctocephalus townsendi) pup production, a species recovering from near extinction. Pup counts from 1991 to 1993 and from 2006 to 2019 were used to estimate deviations from a long-term trend as a proxy for the population's reproductive success. We estimated interannual SSTA as a subtraction from the linear trend spanning 1991–2019 for a 778,000 km2 area, which represents the primary foraging range of adult females. The long-term increase in pup production followed an exponential curve ( ${\rm{R}}_{\rm{B}}^2 = {\rm{\ }}1$), typical of species in a recovery phase. Pup production deviations from this trend responded to SSTA during the gestation period as a cubic polynomial function ( ${\rm{R}}_{\rm{B}}^2 = {\rm{\ }}0.837$), revealing that SSTA &amp;lt; −0.2°C and between ∼0.6 and 1.38°C increased pup production in the subsequent breeding season, whereas normal to slightly warm (−0.17 to 0.6°C) and extreme SSTA (&amp;gt;1.4°C) decreased pup counts, arguably resulting from low prey availability and quality. This model allowed us to estimate pup production for years without observations, needed to understand the environmental variability influence on the recovery process of this species, and therefore constitutes a practical tool for its conservation and management.

Environmental influences on breeding biology and pup production in Australian fur seals.

Knowledge of factors affecting a species' breeding biology is crucial to understanding how environmental variability impacts population trajectories and enables predictions on how species may respond to global change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) represents the largest marine predator biomass in southeastern Australia, an oceanic region experiencing rapid warming that will impact the abundance and distribution of prey. The present study (1997–2020) investigated breeding phenology and pup production in AUFS on Kanowna Island, northern Bass Strait. The pupping period varied by 11 days and the median pupping date by 8 days and were negatively correlated to 1- and 2-year lagged winter zonal winds, respectively, within Bass Strait. While there was no temporal trend over the study period, annual pup production (1386–2574 pups) was negatively correlated to 1-year lagged summer zonal winds in the Bonney Upwelling region and positively correlated to the current-year Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In addition, a fecundity index (ratio of new-born pups to adult females at the median pupping date) was positively correlated with current-year Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions. Periods of positive SOI and positive SAM conditions are forecast to increase in coming decades, suggesting advantageous conditions for the Kanowna Island AUFS population.