Puget Sound Research Articles

Birdwatching preferences reveal synergies and tradeoffs among recreation, carbon, and fisheries ecosystem services in Pacific Northwest estuaries, USA

Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge. In an ecosystem services assessment, we used different service-appropriate methods including citizen science, statistical and geospatial models, and scenario analysis to evaluate three ecosystem services – recreational birdwatching, soil carbon accumulation and fishery production – indicated as priorities for the Refuge, Nisqually Indian Tribe, and surrounding communities. We developed a generalized additive mixed model set based on eBird mobile application birdwatching observations to understand the biological and landscape features that influence birdwatching and to project birdwatching visitation based on scenarios of Delta habitat change. We evaluated ecosystem service synergies and tradeoffs associated with habitat change for three coastal habitat types using scenario outputs from the birdwatching model and published results on Delta soil carbon accumulation and fishery production. The highest-ranked birdwatching models explained 88 % of the deviance and showed that visitation was greatest in winter months when distance to major cities was approximately 20 km. Recreational birdwatching increased with increasing area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed, open access, and total estuary. With increasing forested and emergent wetland area, recreational birdwatching, out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation all increased. With increasing aquatic vegetation bed (resulting from sea level rise), recreational birdwatching increased, but salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation decreased. We identified practical ways in which ecosystem services may be incorporated into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. This study illustrated how use of ecosystem services can help managers make decisions that have greater benefit for wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions and increase local support and participation.

No Longer Seat-Less in Seattle: The Role of Coordinated Transportation and Land Use Planning in Sustaining Transit Ridership through the Pandemic Recovery Period

Transit ridership had been decreasing in major cities across the United States prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, with Seattle as a notable exception. I examine the relationship between travel behavior and Seattle’s land use planning program in conjunction with transit improvements. I use econometric methods to analyze multiple waves of the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) Household Travel Survey from 2014 to 2021. Living in one of Seattle’s Urban Villages is significantly associated with a higher likelihood of taking transit. This relationship holds during the pandemic time period and when controlling for self-selection.

Spatial Distribution of Tremor Episodes From Long‐Term Monitoring in the Northern Cascadia Subduction Zone

AbstractLarge bursts of non‐volcanic tremor (“major” tremor episodes) correlated with geodetic deformation recur regularly in the Cascadia subduction zone and are often called episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Minor episodes of tremor between ETS are ubiquitous but have been understudied. This paper assesses time‐invariant characteristics of tremor episodes of all sizes within northern Cascadia. We derive a catalog of tremor episodes ranging in size from 10 to >13,000 tremor events using the results of 17 years of tremor monitoring. Minor episodes represent ∼96% of all 896 tremor episodes and their occurrence varies on 10‐km scales. Using estimates for the depth of the forearc Moho and subducting slab, we observe an association between the location of the forearc mantle corner (FMC) and tremor occurrence that leads to along‐dip modality. Bimodality, present in southern Washington and Vancouver Island, represents the segmentation of major and minor episodes up‐dip and down‐dip of the FMC, respectively. Unimodality, present in Puget Sound, results when the FMC is located near the down‐dip edge of the ETS zone and no segmentation occurs. We also use our extensive tremor episode catalog alongside three‐dimensional regional tomographic velocity models to reassess the relationship between tremor activity and low Vp/Vs signatures in the forearc. We do not find a correlation between tremor episode recurrence intervals and Vp/Vs, contrary to some previous work, suggesting that controls on silica precipitation in the forearc crust are not dominant controls of tremor episode recurrence, or that the association is not widely observable.

Trends and status of harbor seals in Washington State, USA (1977–2023)

AbstractHarbor seal (Phoca vitulina) numbers in the United States rebounded after the implementation of conservation measures associated with the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 (MMPA). Stock estimates are a critical tool for assessing species status and management options under the MMPA and for modeling efforts designed to evaluate the role of pinnipeds in marine ecosystems. We conducted aerial surveys of harbor seal haul‐out sites between 1977 and 2023 to estimate population size and trends in four Washington State, USA, stocks: (1) Hood Canal, (2) Southern Puget Sound, (3) Washington Northern Inland Waters, and (4) the Washington portion of the Oregon‐Washington Coastal Stock. We fit a Bayesian state‐space model to estimate population trends for all stocks, as well as the Washington Coast region, and present carrying capacities and maximum net productivity levels for all stocks. The most recent population estimates for the three inland water stocks are within their optimal sustainable population range, with some evidence that the Southern Puget Sound Stock is continuing to grow.

Contrasting effect of hybridization on genetic differentiation in three rockfish species with similar life history.

Hybridization can provide evolutionary benefits (e.g., population resilience to climate change) through the introduction of adaptive alleles and increase of genetic diversity. Nevertheless, management strategies may be designed based only on the parental species within a hybrid zone, without considering the hybrids. This can lead to ineffective spatial management of species, which can directly harm population diversity and negatively impact food webs. Three species of rockfish (Brown Rockfish (Sebastes caurinus), Copper Rockfish (S. auriculatus), and Quillback Rockfish (S. maliger)) are known to hybridize within Puget Sound, Washington, but genetic data from these species are used to infer population structure in the entire genus, including in species that do not hybridize. The goal of this project was to estimate the hybridization rates within the region and determine the effect of hybridization on geographic patterns of genetic structure. We sequenced 290 Brown, Copper, and Quillback rockfish using restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) from four regions within and outside Puget Sound, Washington. We show that (i) hybridization within Puget Sound was asymmetrical, not recent, widespread among individuals, and relatively low level within the genome, (ii) hybridization affected population structure in Copper and Brown rockfish, but not in Quillback Rockfish and (iii) after taking hybridization into account we found limited directional dispersal in Brown and Copper rockfish, and evidence for two isolated populations in Quillback Rockfish. Our results suggest that rockfish population structure is species-specific, dependent on the extent of hybridization, and cannot be inferred from one species to another despite similar life history.

Using interpenetrating subsampling to incorporate interpreter variability into estimation of the total variance of land cover area estimates

Reference data obtained by interpreters is a key component of sample-based estimation of area of land cover and land cover change. However, interpreters may disagree when assigning the reference class label for a given sample unit and this inconsistency between interpreters contributes to the overall uncertainty of the estimated area. Interpenetrating subsampling (IPS) offers a practical way to incorporate interpreter variability into an unbiased estimator of the total variance. This method requires partitioning the full sample into g nonoverlapping groups with the sample units in each group then evaluated by a different interpreter and each interpreter determines the reference class data for only one group. The total variance is estimated by the among group variability of the g estimates of area. IPS was applied to estimate the total variance of land cover area estimates for a sample of 300 pixels selected from the Puget Sound region of the Northwest United States. The reference land cover data were obtained by seven interpreters who each labeled all 300 pixels. These data provided a unique opportunity to explore properties of IPS such as variability over different random partitions of the sample into groups and variability over different subsets of interpreters. IPS estimates of total variance were produced for each land cover class for group sizes of g = 2 through g = 6 and all possible combinations of the seven interpreters for each group size. The estimated total variance decreased with increasing number of groups. Incorporating interpreter variance increased the estimated total variance by a factor ranging from 1.08 (agriculture) to 7.06 (grass/shrub) in simple random sampling. The total variance estimates varied substantially over the random partitions of the sample into groups, but this variability decreased as the group size increased. Compared with other total variance estimators, the IPS estimator is simpler to compute and is more cost effective because it does not require repeat interpretations

Advancing the ecological narrative: documentation of broadnose sevengill sharks (Notorynchus cepedianus) in South Puget Sound, Washington, USA

The broadnose sevengill shark (Notorynchus cepedianus) is a large, apex predator found in temperate waters around the world. Yet data on their distribution are limited, with reports of species occurrence typically restricted to specific bays or estuaries where they have been historically observed in high seasonal abundances. The Puget Sound is located in the southern portion of the Salish Sea, a large estuary spanning the border between northwestern Washington state, USA and southwestern British Columbia, Canada, and serves as an economic, cultural, and ecological hub. Until recently, there was only one verified record of broadnose sevengill sharks in the Salish Sea and none in the Puget Sound. However, our recent multi-agency collaborative effort revealed the presence of adult and sub-adult broadnose sevengill sharks in South Puget Sound, extending their previously known range hundreds of kilometers and into a new ecosystem. This work represents the first evidence of a significant presence of these apex sharks within the Salish Sea.

Optimizing placement of bioretention systems in the US Puget Sound region

AbstractThe Puget Sound Basin, US Pacific Northwest, is experiencing rapid population and urban growth. This growth adversely impacts local ecosystems, especially the spawning and rearing habitat for several salmonid species. Sustainable urban design strategies such as green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) are required in the region to manage stormwater onsite when new development occurs. However, the effectiveness of any GSI depends on its location relative to where stormwater is produced. This study aimed to develop a Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based framework for the optimal placement of GSI, specifically bioretention systems. We computed the Hydrologic Sensitivity Index (λHSI, indicating runoff generation potential at a landscape location) for the lower Puyallup River Watershed study area. The index and federal and state feasibility criteria were used to identify suitable sites for bioretention systems. The suitability of identified sites was verified through ground‐truthing, including soil sampling and infiltration testing. We found that 2.5% of the watershed area was suitable for bioretention, concentrated in the center and north of the study watershed. The method described in this study can be readily applied to watersheds for which spatial data (topography, soil, and land use) are available. We recommend choosing locations with high λHSI when resources are limited since these locations contribute most to runoff generation and urban flooding.

Honoring Inágofli’e’ and Alofa: Developing a Culturally Grounded Health Promotion Model for Queer and Transgender Pacific Islanders

(1) Background: Although culturally grounded health interventions (CGHI) have shown efficacy in improving Indigenous health, few CGHI for Queer and Transgender Pacific Islander (QTPI) communities exist to address their health promotion. This study explores QTPI experiences of health for cultural mechanisms to develop CGHI for QTPI health promotion. (2) Methods: Using Indigenist community-engaged research methodologies, we collaborated with the United Territories of Pacific Islanders Alliance of Washington and Guma’ Gela’ to conduct 11 exploratory semi-structured interviews with QTPI community members living in the Puget Sound area of Washington state. These interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. (3) Results: QTPI well-being was greatly influenced by how settler colonialism impacted their connectedness to their families, communities, and cultures. We also found that inágofli’e’ and alofa, relational values in CHamoru and Sāmoan culture, played essential roles in facilitating QTPI health. Many participants fostered these values through chosen family, community care, and Indigenous mobilities. (4) Conclusions: Our findings indicate a need for CGHI that facilitate inágofli’e’ and alofa for QTPI to combat settler colonialism’s impacts on QTPI well-being. Finally, we present a community-centered conceptual model for culturally grounded health promotion in QTPI communities.

Hydrokinetic tidal energy resource assessment following international electrotechnical commission guidelines

Energetic tidal streams are an especially attractive source of clean energy due to the daily occurrence of high tidal flows. However, before any deployment of tidal turbine farms, it is essential to perform a resource assessment depending on the scope and scale of the project. The International Electrotechnical Commission has developed a technical specification for assessing the tidal stream resource “IEC TS 62600-201” to aid in this effort: determine a particular site’s feasibility and design the project layout. In this study, we implemented and validated a three-dimensional numerical model and provided results following the specification for a ‘Stage 2’ project layout design in a highly energetic tidal channel: Tacoma Narrows of Puget Sound, in the State of Washington, USA. Implementation of the numerical model based on the specification has helped estimate the annual energy production with higher model accuracy. We also used the same setup to evaluate the undisturbed theoretical and technical resources, where the latter included energy extraction from the flow field arranging a hypothetical tidal energy converter array. Ultimately, this work has shown the important role of the technical specification in larger project layout design, which can simultaneously act as a benchmark for other ‘Stage 2’ theoretical and technical resource assessment studies worldwide.

Benthic macroinvertebrate response to estuarine emergent marsh restoration across a delta-wide environmental gradient

Benthic invertebrates play vital roles in estuarine ecosystems, but like other taxa they have been excluded from former marshlands by diking and land use conversion. Dike removal is one way of restoring marsh, but the response of benthic invertebrates has been little studied. Also understudied is variation in benthic invertebrate communities across entire deltas, particularly in the Pacific Northwest of North America where deltas receive high flows and sediment loads for their size. Our goals were to evaluate invertebrate response to large-scale dike removal on the Nisqually River Delta in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., characterize delta-wide invertebrate community variation, and relate invertebrate response and spatial variation to environmental conditions. We sampled invertebrates annually from one year before to three years after dike removal in restoring marsh, previously restored marsh, undisturbed reference marsh, and adjacent tidal flats. Marine taxa immediately colonized the area recently restored to tidal inundation and population size grew exponentially thereafter for several of them. Community composition and diversity recovered completely, and density and biomass were approaching recovery three years later. Invertebrate communities converged between restoring and pre-existing marsh (previously restored and reference), suggesting an influence of reestablished connectivity. Just offshore from the dike line, invertebrates declined one year after dike removal but then rebounded indicating resilience to short-term disturbance. Dike removal effects were not detected farther offshore. Near the offshore edge of the delta, invertebrate biomass and body size were greater than elsewhere and a diverse assemblage of crustaceans, polychaetes, and bivalves was present. Farther inshore, tidal flats were dominated by a few species of small-bodied polychaetes and had higher density but lower biomass and diversity. Facultative detritivores, which can also filter feed, were the dominant feeding guild everywhere on the tidal flats. Density, biomass, diversity, and community composition on the marsh were more similar to the inner than outer tidal flats. Environmental variables most associated with invertebrate community variation were elevation, salinity, and sediment grain size and organic content. Our results are relevant to assessing performance and setting expectations for future restorations and have broad implications for the role of benthic invertebrates in estuarine ecosystems.

Local Watershed Properties Cannot Explain Divergent Dynamics of Pacific Herring in an Urbanizing Estuary

Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) is a foundational species in Puget Sound (Washington State, U.S.A.) and is subject to many anthropogenic threats. We assessed the overall status of the Puget Sound Pacific herring sub-stock complex and asked whether watersheds with less urban or agricultural land cover, less impervious surface, and lower human density were associated with better stock status. To this end, we developed multiple metrics of sub-stock population status; characterized watershed properties with respect to land use/land cover, percent impervious surfaces, and human density; and used statistical model selection to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of our hypotheses. Overall, the status of sub-stocks was poor; metrics for most sub-stocks indicate a decline from 1996–2021. However, the status metrics of sub-stocks were not related to recent (2016) watershed characteristics or the rate of change in watershed characteristics from the mid-1990s to 2016. While the cumulative effects of local human land use throughout Puget Sound may be contributing to the deterioration of spawning biomass, these results also suggest that other drivers that operate at larger scales (e.g., predation, disease, climate) are likely important.

Localized Tidal Energy Extraction in Puget Sound Can Adjust Estuary Reflection and Friction, Modifying Barotropic Tides System‐Wide

AbstractHarvesting energy via tidal stream turbines is being increasingly considered as a renewable energy resource in estuaries with strong tidal currents. It remains unclear how localized energy extraction changes basic tidal physics throughout real systems. Here, we analyze the influence of an extensive synthetic tidal turbine array on barotropic tides in the Salish Sea, a complex, tidally energetic estuary, using a realistic numerical model. Tidal energy fluxes are calculated at 15 sections throughout the system and decomposed into incident and reflected components, as well as by frequency. Results show the dominant semidiurnal constituent, M2, controls the total tidal energy flux everywhere. When turbines are placed in Tacoma Narrows, the M2 energy flux is enhanced at sections seaward of the array in Puget Sound and reduced landward. The principal diurnal constituent, K1, contributes little to the total energy flux, but behaves similarly. Changes to each constituent are primarily attributed to turbine enhanced frictional dissipation which reduces the estuary's natural resonant period (∼10 hr) amplification. Being close to the semidiurnal frequencies, the resonance adjustment reduces M2 tidal reflection seaward of the turbines and free surface amplitude (particularly landward of the turbines) thereby increasing (decreasing) tidal energy fluxes at seaward (landward) locations. K1 is further from the natural frequency and insensitive to resonance changes. We hypothesize K1 is directly sensitive to increased frictional dissipation which acts to reduce reflection and tidal amplitude, regardless of the estuary natural frequency. Spatial variability in dynamics is discussed, as well as potential environmental implications.

Variables influencing stream‐type juvenile Chinook Salmon density within floodplain habitat in the Skagit River basin, Washington

AbstractObjectiveDespite decades of restoration work, Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Pacific Northwest remain under the protection of the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Chinook Salmon in the Skagit River basin play a vital role in the abundance and recovery of the Puget Sound Chinook Salmon Evolutionarily Significant Unit, which is currently listed as threatened under the ESA. The stream‐type juvenile (STJ) life history pattern of Chinook Salmon in the Skagit River has higher ocean survival to the adult stage (i.e., productivity) than that of parr or fry out‐migrants, and improvement in STJ Chinook Salmon habitat could increase abundance and diversity in the Skagit River basin. Our objective was to provide recommended ranges of variables shown to influence habitat selection in floodplains by STJ Chinook Salmon.MethodsUsing field observations from 70 sites within the Skagit River basin, we developed generalized linear mixed‐effects models across three seasons in floodplain habitats to correlate variable ranges with densities of STJ Chinook Salmon.ResultModel accuracy varied by season (summer: R2 = 0.24; winter: R2 = 0.56; spring: R2 = 0.54), and significant parameters included velocity, substrate, depth range, and distance to the closest connection with the main stem. Additional significant factors included wood cover, maximum water temperature, velocity range, and interaction of the ranges of velocity and depth. Recommended ranges for habitat variables associated with the highest densities of STJ Chinook Salmon include depths of 40–68 cm, velocities of 0.06–0.33 m/s, substrate sizes of 3–36 mm, and distances of 33–119 m to the main‐stem connection. Water temperatures associated with high juvenile densities varied by season (winter: 4–6°C; summer: 9–14°C).ConclusionOur recommended ranges for habitat variables can be used to refine designs for river restoration projects intended to improve habitat for juvenile Chinook Salmon and other salmonids in the Pacific Northwest.

Distinguishing climate change impacts from development impacts on summer low flows in Puget Sound streams

AbstractIn many Puget Sound streams, summer low flows have declined in recent decades, and are projected to decline further. Concerns that humans may be responsible have focused on two main causes: anthropogenic climate warming and aspects of development, including urbanization and the abstraction of groundwater. Difficulty in distinguishing their relative impacts has hindered the conception and design of strategies intended to restore and enhance future low flows. We analyzed trends in low flows over recent decades, separating the effects of these factors in two steps. First, low flow variation was assessed in 23 basins that are minimally disturbed by development. Low flows varied over time, and with elevation, in complex ways, consistent with the loss of snowpack at elevations >~800 m. Second, low flow trends in developed lowland basins were compared with trends in a minimally developed lowland reference basin. Flows in developed basins deviated from a purely climate‐driven pattern in unique ways, reflecting unique histories of development. In 21 lowland basins, there was no consistent decline in low flows with increasing impervious land cover, at least between 2001 and 2019. Effects on low flows of private wells alone could be assessed in only one basin, but no impact was evident. An assessment of projected relative impacts on low flows of urbanization, rural development, and anthropogenic warming suggested that the latter will be the greatest.

Minimizing delays to hemodialysis access maturation: A quality improvement analysis.

Pre-operative process optimization can expedite time-to-intervention and reduce overall health care costs. We hypothesized that the longest delay to hemodialysis (HD) access creation would be from pre-operative vessel mapping (mandatory in our practice), and that this would be correlated with increased catheter days. One hundred thirty patients (24 inpatients, 106 outpatients) who received initial hemodialysis (HD) access from 01/01/2017 to 12/31/2021, at the Veterans Affairs Puget Sound, Seattle, Washington, were identified. Median time differences between pre-operative events were compared between inpatients and outpatients using the Mann-Whitney U test. Outpatients were then stratified by time of catheter-based HD initiation (no catheter, pre-referral catheter, post-referral catheter) and compared. The impacts of mapping-related delays on catheter use were evaluated using regression. Inpatients had shorter referral to access maturation times (125 days inpatient vs 146 days outpatient; p = 0.03). This was driven by shorter referral to mapping (2 days inpatient vs 27 days outpatient; p < 0.01) and mapping to pre-surgical evaluation (1-day inpatient vs 6 days outpatients; p < 0.01) times. Pre-surgical evaluation to OR times represented the longest pre-operative delay in both groups (51 days inpatient vs 29 days outpatient; p = 0.59). Among outpatients, tunneled catheter placement post-referral resulted in longer maturation times (74 days no catheter vs 67 days pre-referral vs 149 days post-referral; p < 0.01) but not additional pre-operative delays. No trend existed between increased mapping times and catheter-based dialysis duration (R2 = 0.08). Preoperative vein mapping contributed up to 21% of referral to maturation times but was not associated with increased tunneled catheter duration. While tunneled catheter placement impacted access maturation it did not cause additional pre-operative delays. Earlier referrals for access creation and reduction of outpatient wait-time from referral to OR and increased AV graft placement may minimize catheter days in our system thereby mitigating the added delays caused by pre-operative vein mapping.

Leveraging low-cost sensors to predict nitrogen dioxide for epidemiologic exposure assessment.

Statistical models of air pollution enable intra-urban characterization of pollutant concentrations, benefiting exposure assessment for environmental epidemiology. The new generation of low-cost sensors facilitate the deployment of dense monitoring networks and can potentially be used to improve intra-urban models of air pollution. Develop and evaluate a spatiotemporal model for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the Puget Sound region of WA, USA for the Adult Changes in Thought Air Pollution (ACT-AP) study and assess the contribution of low-cost sensor data to the model's performance through cross-validation. We developed a spatiotemporal NO2 model for the study region incorporating data from 11 agency locations, 364 supplementary monitoring locations, and 117 low-cost sensor (LCS) locations for the 1996-2020 time period. Model features included long-term time trends and dimension-reduced land use regression. We evaluated the contribution of LCS network data by comparing models fit with and without sensor data using cross-validated (CV) summary performance statistics. The best performing model had one time trend and geographic covariates summarized into three partial least squares components. The model, fit with LCS data, performed as well as other recent studies (agency cross-validation: CV- root mean square error (RMSE) = 2.5 ppb NO2; CV- coefficient of determination ( ) = 0.85). Predictions of NO2 concentrations developed with LCS were higher at residential locations compared to a model without LCS, especially in recent years. While LCS did not provide a strong performance gain at agency sites (CV-RMSE = 2.8 ppb NO2; CV- = 0.82 without LCS), at residential locations, the improvement was substantial, with RMSE = 3.8 ppb NO2 and = 0.08 (without LCS), compared to CV-RMSE = 2.8 ppb NO2 and CV- = 0.51 (with LCS). We developed a spatiotemporal model for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution in Washington's Puget Sound region for epidemiologic exposure assessment for the Adult Changes in Thought Air Pollution study. We examined the impact of including low-cost sensor data in the NO2 model and found the additional spatial information the sensors provided predicted NO2 concentrations that were higher than without low-cost sensors, particularly in recent years. We did not observe a clear, substantial improvement in cross-validation performance over a similar model fit without low-cost sensor data; however, the prediction improvement with low-cost sensors at residential locations was substantial. The performance gains from low-cost sensors may have been attenuated due to spatial information provided by other supplementary monitoring data.

Seasonality and response of ocean acidification and hypoxia to major environmental anomalies in the southern Salish Sea, North America (2014–2018)

Abstract. Coastal and estuarine ecosystems fringing the North Pacific Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, hypoxia, and intense marine heatwaves as a result of interactions among natural and anthropogenic processes. Here, we characterize variability during a seasonally resolved cruise time series (2014–2018) in the southern Salish Sea (Puget Sound, Strait of Juan de Fuca) and nearby coastal waters for select physical (temperature, T; salinity, S) and biogeochemical (oxygen, O2; carbon dioxide fugacity, fCO2; aragonite saturation state, Ωarag) parameters. Medians for some parameters peaked (T, Ωarag) in surface waters in summer, whereas others (S, O2, fCO2) changed progressively across spring–fall, and all parameters changed monotonically or were relatively stable at depth. Ranges varied considerably for all parameters across basins within the study region, with stratified basins consistently the most variable. Strong environmental anomalies occurred during the time series, allowing us to also qualitatively assess how these anomalies affected seasonal patterns and interannual variability. The peak temperature anomaly associated with the 2013–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave–El Niño event was observed in boundary waters during the October 2014 cruise, but Puget Sound cruises revealed the largest temperature increases during the 2015–2016 timeframe. The most extreme hypoxia and acidification measurements to date were recorded in Hood Canal (which consistently had the most extreme conditions) during the same period; however, they were shifted earlier in the year relative to previous events. During autumn 2017, after the heat anomaly, a distinct carbonate system anomaly with unprecedentedly low Ωarag values and high fCO2 values occurred in parts of the southern Salish Sea that are not normally so acidified. This novel “CO2 storm” appears to have been driven by anomalously high river discharge earlier in 2017, which resulted in enhanced stratification and inferred primary productivity anomalies, indicated by persistently and anomalously high O2, low fCO2, and high chlorophyll. Unusually, this CO2 anomaly was decoupled from O2 dynamics compared with past Salish Sea hypoxia and acidification events. The complex interplay of weather, hydrological, and circulation anomalies revealed distinct multi-stressor scenarios that will potentially affect regional ecosystems under a changing climate. Further, the frequencies at which Salish cruise observations crossed known or preliminary species' sensitivity thresholds illustrates the relative risk landscape of temperature, hypoxia, and acidification anomalies in the southern Salish Sea in the present day, with implications for how multiple stressors may combine to present potential migration, survival, or physiological challenges to key regional species. The Salish cruise data product used in this publication is available at https://doi.org/10.25921/zgk5-ep63 (Alin et al., 2022), with an additional data product including all calculated CO2 system parameters available at https://doi.org/10.25921/5g29-q841 (Alin et al., 2023).

A Hazard-Based Framework for Identifying Safer Alternatives to Classes of Chemicals: A Case Study on Phthalates in Consumer Products.

Humans are exposed to hazardous chemicals found in consumer products. In 2019, the Pollution Prevention for Healthy People and Puget Sound Act was passed in Washington State. This law is meant to reduce hazardous chemicals in consumer products and protect human health and the environment. The law directs the Washington State Department of Ecology to assess chemicals and chemical classes found in products, determine whether there are safer alternatives, and make regulatory determinations. To implement the law, the Department of Ecology developed a hazard-based framework for identifying safer alternatives to classes of chemicals. We developed a hazard-based framework, termed the "Criteria for Safer," to set a transparent bar for determining whether new chemical alternatives are safer than existing classes of chemicals. Our "Criteria for Safer" is a framework that builds on existing hazard assessment methodologies and published approaches for assessing chemicals and chemical classes. We describe implementation of our criteria using a case study on the phthalates chemical class in two categories of consumer products: vinyl flooring and fragrances used in personal care and beauty products. Additional context and considerations that guided our decision-making process are also discussed, as well as benefits and limitations of our approach. This paper gives insight into our development and implementation of a hazard-based framework to address classes of chemicals in consumer products and will aid others working to build and employ similar approaches. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13549.

Cumulative Blast Impulse Is Predictive for Changes in Chronic Neurobehavioral Symptoms Following Low Level Blast Exposure during Military Training.

Cumulative low-level blast exposure during military training may be a significant occupational hazard, increasing the risk of poor long-term outcomes in brain function. US Public Law 116-92 section717 mandates that US Department of Defense agencies document the blast exposure of each Service member to help inform later disability and health care decisions. However, which empirical measures of training blast exposure, such as the number of incidents, peak overpressure, or impulse, best inform changes in the neurobehavioral symptoms reflecting brain health have not been established. This study was approved by the US Army Special Operations Command, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the VA Puget Sound Health Care System. Using methods easily deployable across different organizational structures, this study sought to identify and measure candidate risk factors related to career occupational blast exposure predictive of changes in neurobehavioral symptom burden. Blast dosimetry-symptom relationships were first evaluated in mice and then tested in a military training environment. In mice, the righting time neurobehavioral response was measured after exposure to a repetitive low-level blast paradigm modeled after Special Operations training. In the military training environment, 23 trainees enrolled in a 6-week explosive breaching training course, 13 instructors, and 10 Service member controls without blast exposure participated in the study (46 total). All participants provided weekly Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory (NSI) surveys. Peak blast overpressure, impulse, total number of blasts, Time in Low-Level Blast Occupation, and Time in Service were analyzed by Bayesian analysis of regression modeling to determine their probability of influence on the post-training symptoms reported by participants. We tested the hypothesis that cumulative measures of low-level blast exposure were predictive of changes in neurobehavioral symptoms. In mice, repetitive blast resulted in reduced righting times correlated with cumulative blast impulse. In Service members, peak blast overpressure, impulse, total number of blasts, Time in Low-Level Blast Occupation, and Time in Service all showed strong evidence of influence on NSI scores after blast exposure. However, only models including baseline NSI scores and cumulative blast impulse provided significant predictive value following validation. These results indicate that measures of cumulative blast impulse may have utility in predicting changes in NSI scores. Such paired dosimetry-symptom measures are expected to be an important tool in safely guiding Service members' occupational exposure and optimizing force readiness and lethality.