Public Wage Bill Research Articles

The Government in SNA-Compliant DSGE Models

Abstract The government size in developed economies expanded remarkably after the Second World War. This growth shaped the role of the government as a key player in the economic activity and the aggregate dynamics of a country. However, the way in which the government is represented in DSGE models is often reductive, containing homogeneous public spending and a few distortionary taxes without clear counterparts in fiscal data. This paper shows how dynamic general equilibrium models can incorporate a detailed government sector as defined in the System of National Accounts (SNA). This government features six types of public expenditures (i.e. the government’s intermediate consumption, public wage bill, debt service, public investment, and transfers to households both in-kind and other-than-in-kind), and five distortionary taxes (i.e. consumption tax, capital and labor income taxes, corporate tax and social contributions).

The South African public service wage bill deadlock in 2021: living on the edge

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.

FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Ireland

This paper presents FIR-GEM: Fiscal IRish General Equilibrium Model. FIR-GEM is a small open economy DSGE model designed as fiscal toolkit for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland. To illustrate the model's potential for fiscal policy analysis, we conduct three types of experiments. First, we analyse the fiscal transmission mechanism through which Irish fiscal policy affects the Irish economy. Second, we compute fiscal multipliers for the main tax-spending instruments, namely government consumption, public investment, public wage bill, public transfers, consumption, labour and capital tax. We focus on a fiscal policy stimulus that is either implemented through spending increases or tax cuts. Third, we perform robustness analysis on key structural characteristics that can affect quantitatively the size of fiscal multipliers. We find that the size of fiscal multipliers in the Irish economy heavily depends on its degree of openness, the method of fiscal financing employed, the elasticity of the sovereign risk premia to Irish debt dynamics and the flexibility of Irish labour and product markets.

Revenue Forecasting Approach Towards Public Sector Wage Bill Management Dilemma in Kenya

The Kenyan government has been working towards achieving fiscal sustainability in wage bill expenditure since independence. Fiscal sustainability is key to achieving economic growth and progress as most resources would be channeled to development expenditure. The international recognized level of wage bill to revenue ratio is between 30%-40%. However, this key ratio is not being achieved in Kenya as the Salaries and Remuneration Commission and Parliamentary Budget Office of Kenya reports indicates that in the fiscal year 2012/13, it was 47%. The reports further indicate that the ratio has been within the range 47%-49% since the fiscal year 2009/2010 to 2012/13. Notable is that revenue forecasts essentially exist to help in budget formulation. Why then would the public wage bill management be a huge task to the government since independence? This study sought to establish whether revenue forecast has an effect on wage bill management in Kenya. Causal research design was used to establish the cause and effect relationship between the independent and dependent variable. Purposive sampling was employed in choosing 13 fiscal year budget data from the fiscal year 2000/01 to 2012/13.Simple linear regression model was employed in establishing the degree and magnitude of the relationship between the variables. A t-test and F-ratio were applied to test hypothesis and overall significance of the regression model at 5% significance level. Findings of this study indicates that revenue forecast within the 13 fiscal year period under study has significant effect on wage bill management in the context of wage bill to revenue ratio. This is an implication that revenue forecasts can help in managing the wage bill.

The Interaction between Public Sector Wage, Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility in Ghana

Continuous depreciation of the cedi has been in the orbit of concern of policy makers for time immemorial. This is because, in spite of many policy actions to restore the continuous depreciation of the cedi amidst wage hikes and inflation, the efforts of policy makers seem to thwart in vain. The ARDL method was empirically used to determine whether the rising public sector wage bill and inflation have any impact on the value of the cedi over the period 1986 to 2014. The study discovered that inflation, money supply, interest rate and public wage bill have significant impact on exchange rate in the Ghanaian economy. The outcome of this study postulated that exchange rate determination in Ghana is also a fiscal phenomenon in spite of the significant and domineering role played by monetary expansion. Based on this information, the paper proposed that equal attention must be accorded both fiscal and monetary policy in exchange rate stabilization. It, therefore, suggested that there must be a purely independent central bank; devoid of political appointments and interference to carry out its mandate with free hands. An independent non-political fiscal body like the monetary policy committee under Bank of Ghana must also be established under the same body independent of the Ministry of Finance to ensure wage sustainability through the negotiation of public sector wage adjustment subject to budgetary constraints.

Public Sector Wage and Inflation in Ghana

Achieving price stability has been in the orbit of concern of state authorities for time immemorial. This paper is therefore focused on determining empirically the impact of public wage bill on inflation in Ghana for the period of 1986-2014. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to cointegration model, it was discovered from the study that public wage bill, currency depreciation rate, money supply, and fiscal deficit all have significant impact on inflation in Ghana. The outcome of this study postulates that the rate of inflation determination in Ghana is also a fiscal phenomenon in spite of the significant and domineering role played by monetary expansion. Consequently, equal attention must be accorded both fiscal and monetary policy in the fight against the rate of inflation in Ghana for appreciable and sustained result.

The Fiscal and Macroeconomic Effects of Government Wages and Employment Reform

This paper examines the overall macroeconomic impact arising from reform in government wages and employment, at times of fiscal consolidation. Reform of these two components of the government wage bill appeared necessary for containing the deterioration of the public finances in several EU countries, as a consequence of the financial crisis. Such reforms entailed in some instances, but not always, the implementation of cost cutting measures affecting the government wage bill, as part of broader consolidation packages that typically hinged more heavily on other fiscal instruments, like public investment. While such measures have adverse short-term macroeconomic effects, public wage bill restraining policy changes present the idiosyncrasy that they can yield medium- to longer-term benefits due to possible competitiveness and efficiency gains through their impact on labour market dynamics. This paper provides some evidence of such medium- to long-run effects, based on a wealth of micro and macro data in the euro area and the EU. It concludes that appropriately designed government wage bill moderation could indeed produce positive dividends to the economy, which depend on certain country-specific conditions. These gains can be reinforced by relevant fiscal-structural reforms.

Public employment and compensation reform: the role of social dialogue and structural measures

This paper compiles and compares recent and past measures introduced to contain the public wage bill in a number of emerging and advanced economies to assess their effectiveness in bringing down expenditure in a sustained way. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, a number of countries have approved measures on the wage bill as part of fiscal consolidation efforts. These recent episodes are compared to past cases implemented in advanced economies over the period 1979–2009. Findings suggest that public wage bill consolidation episodes pre- and post-2009 are similar in many respects. Moreover, typically countries that were able to achieve more sustained reductions in the wage bill have implemented to larger extent structural measures, and/or these measures were accompanied with substantial social dialogue and consensus.

How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality?

This paper explores the impact of fiscal and labor market policies on efficiency, inequality, and fiscal outcomes in France. We extend the general equilibrium model calibrated for France by Alla and others (2015), with measures of labor and capital income for different groups in the economy (the unemployed, unskilled workers, skilled workers, public servants). For each of these groups we combine data on the income distribution with the outcomes of policy simulations to assess the impact of a suite of stylized policies on output, the fiscal balance, the Gini coefficient, and the shape of the Lorenz curve. We find that most types of fiscal expansions, while adding to the deficit and debt in the near term, generally reduce inequality, the main exception being capital income tax cuts. A reduction of the minimum wage has an ambiguous impact on the income distribution: the Gini coefficient increases, but the lowest income quintile improves its relative position in the income distribution thanks to positive employment effects. The paper also finds scope for “win-win” policy packages that could improve overall efficiency, inequality, and fiscal outcomes, for instance if targeted labor tax reductions are offset by cuts in the public wage bill.

How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality?

This paper explores the impact of fiscal and labor market policies on efficiency, inequality, and fiscal outcomes in France. We extend the general equilibrium model calibrated for France by Alla and others (2015), with measures of labor and capital income for different groups in the economy (the unemployed, unskilled workers, skilled workers, public servants). For each of these groups we combine data on the income distribution with the outcomes of policy simulations to assess the impact of a suite of stylized policies on output, the fiscal balance, the Gini coefficient, and the shape of the Lorenz curve. We find that most types of fiscal expansions, while adding to the deficit and debt in the near term, generally reduce inequality, the main exception being capital income tax cuts. A reduction of the minimum wage has an ambiguous impact on the income distribution: the Gini coefficient increases, but the lowest income quintile improves its relative position in the income distribution thanks to positive employment effects. The paper also finds scope for 'win-win' policy packages that could improve overall efficiency, inequality, and fiscal outcomes, for instance if targeted labor tax reductions are offset by cuts in the public wage bill.

The Fiscal and Macroeconomic Effects of Government Wages and Employment Reform

This paper examines the overall macroeconomic impact arising from reform in government wages and employment, at times of fiscal consolidation. Reform of these two components of the government wage bill appeared necessary for containing the deterioration of the public finances in several EU countries, as a consequence of the financial crisis. Such reforms entailed in some instances, but not always, the implementation of cost-cutting measures affecting the government wage bill, as part of broader consolidation packages that typically hinged more heavily on other fiscal instruments, like public investment. While such measures have adverse short-term macroeconomic effects, public wage bill restraining policy changes present the idiosyncrasy that they can yield medium- to longer-term benefits due to possible competitiveness and efficiency gains through their impact on labour market dynamics. This paper provides some evidence of such medium- to long-run effects, based on a wealth of micro and macro data in the euro area and the EU. It concludes that appropriately designed government wage bill moderation could indeed produce positive dividends to the economy, which depend on certain country-specific conditions. These gains can be reinforced by relevant fiscal-structural reforms. JEL Classification: H50, E62, J45

The German Right to anExistenzminimum, Human Dignity, and the Possibility of Minimum Core Socioeconomic Rights Protection

Due to the financial crisis, European states are struggling to make both ends meet and comply with budgetary requirements, This results in cutting pensions and the public wage bill, as well as in phasing out subsidies and other forms of assistance, Although welfare state arrangements have become more limited in the past several decades, especially now, in these times of austerity, it is worth asking how far states can go in limiting social welfare programs, On the one hand, it can be said that there need to be fundamental rights-based limits to the legitimate phasing out or cutting down of existing arrangements to ensure that a minimum level of social arrangements is at all times guaranteed. On the other hand, it is hard to curtail the legislature's freedom by setting such limits, as the political sensitivity, technical aspects, and budgetary implications of social measures seemingly do not allow for too much fundamental rights rhetoric.

Causality between public wage bill, exports and economic growth in Slovenia

This article aims to investigate the causal relationship between economic growth, exports and public wage bill spending, using the Johansen cointegration, Granger causality test, variance decomposition (VDC) and impulse response function (IRF). The empirical investigation focuses on the case of a small open and export-oriented Slovenian economy, where public wage bill spending accounts for a sizable share of public expenditure. The results show a significant impact of public wage bill spending on exports. Reduction of public wage bill spending should be adapted to the circumstances in the economy to assure financial consolidation.

Public Employment and Compensation Reform During Times of Fiscal Consolidation

This paper compiles and compares recent and past measures introduced to contain the public wage bill in a number of emerging and advanced economies to assess their effectiveness in bringing down expenditure in a sustained way. In the aftermath of the Great Recession a number of countries have approved measures on the wage bill as part of fiscal consolidation efforts. These recent episodes are compared to past cases implemented in advanced economies over the period 1979–2009. Findings suggest that public wage bill consolidation episodes pre and post 2009 are similar in many respects. Moreover, typically countries that were able to achieve more sustained reductions in the wage bill have implemented to larger extent structural measures, and/or these measures were accompanied with substantial social dialogue and consensus.

Public Employment and Compensation Reform During Times of Fiscal Consolidation

This paper compiles and compares recent and past measures introduced to contain the public wage bill in a number of emerging and advanced economies to assess their effectiveness in bringing down expenditure in a sustained way. In the aftermath of the Great Recession a number of countries have approved measures on the wage bill as part of fiscal consolidation efforts. These recent episodes are compared to past cases implemented in advanced economies over the period 1979–2009. Findings suggest that public wage bill consolidation episodes pre and post 2009 are similar in many respects. Moreover, typically countries that were able to achieve more sustained reductions in the wage bill have implemented to larger extent structural measures, and/or these measures were accompanied with substantial social dialogue and consensus.

The cyclicality of consumption, wages and employment of the public sector in the euro area

This study empirically examines the business cycle behaviour of public consumption and its main components, the public wage bill (including its breakdown into compensation per employee and public employment) and intermediate consumption, in the euro area aggregate, euro area countries and a group of selected non-euro area Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (Denmark, Sweden, the UK, Japan and the US). It looks across a large number of variables and methods, using annual data from 1960 to 2005. It finds robust evidence supporting that public consumption, wages and employment co-move with the business cycle in a pro-cyclical manner with 1–2 year lags, notably for the euro area aggregate and euro area countries. The findings reflect mainly the correlation between cyclical developments, but also point to an important role of pro-cyclical discretionary fiscal policies.

Bringing French Public Debt Down: The Options for Fiscal Consolidation

France has a track record of persistent general government deficits, partly reflecting pro-cyclical fiscal policies in upswings. This has resulted in a quadrupling of its public debt-to-GDP ratio since the 1970s to above 80% of GDP. Reducing public debt is crucial because a high level of public debt may hamper long-term growth and may have a direct impact on fiscal sustainability if long-term interest rates rise. Bringing back public debt to 60% of GDP even by 2030 would require a fiscal effort of 4 to 5 percentage points of GDP (under the assumption of unchanged long-term rates), implying permanent primary general government surpluses, which is very ambitious in view of French fiscal history since 1970. The government?s consolidation programme, which is aimed at reducing the general government deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013, represents around two-thirds of this effort. This study analyses how fiscal governance could be improved by the creation of a structural deficit rule and looks at ways the public deficit could be lowered. With France already having a very large public sector, most of the effort should be borne by holding down spending. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public-sector efficiency and tackling age-related costs are the obvious candidates to contain expenditure. On the revenue side, there is significant potential for cutting tax expenditures. Furthermore, eliminating distortions in the tax base would encourage economic growth.

The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean

This paper examines debt dynamics in the Caribbean and discusses policy options for reducing the high debt levels. Based on empirical studies of factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes, important policy lessons are drawn for the Caribbean. The analysis shows that major debt reductions are associated with strong growth and decisive and lasting fiscal consolidation efforts. Since growth in the current environment is virtually nonexistent, significant fiscal consolidation is inevitable in the region. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public sector efficiency and tackling transfers are the obvious targets to reduce spending. On the revenue side, there is ample room to reduce tax expenditures, eliminate distortions while broadening the tax base. Fiscal consolidation needs to be complemented by a comprehensive debt reduction strategy including tax policy reforms and structural reforms to boost competiveness.

The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean

This paper examines debt dynamics in the Caribbean and discusses policy options for reducing the high debt levels. Based on empirical studies of factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes, important policy lessons are drawn for the Caribbean. The analysis shows that major debt reductions are associated with strong growth and decisive and lasting fiscal consolidation efforts. Since growth in the current environment is virtually nonexistent, significant fiscal consolidation is inevitable in the region. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public sector efficiency and tackling transfers are the obvious targets to reduce spending. On the revenue side, there is ample room to reduce tax expenditures, eliminate distortions while broadening the tax base. Fiscal consolidation needs to be complemented by a comprehensive debt reduction strategy including tax policy reforms and structural reforms to boost competiveness.

Controlling the public wage bill in Portugal: the case of university professors

Public wages are a large share of the public budget in Portugal and, therefore, hiring freezes are a central feature of the efforts to control the public deficit. The system of public career advancement, however, may lead to increases in the wage bill even in the presence of hiring freezes. We estimate this wage drift effect in the case of university professors. We use a logit analysis with 1999 census data to identify the determinants of career advancement, to estimate the employment distribution in previous years and to obtain the corresponding wage bill. We estimate that the annual wage drift is 2.6%, a figure well above the gross domestic product growth rate and, therefore, we conclude that hiring freezes may be far from enough to stop the expansion of the public wage bill.