Components Of Public Spending Research Articles

Public spending, credit market conditions and economic activity in South Africa

AbstractThis study investigates the effects of public spending shocks across South Africa's credit market conditions from 1965Q2 to 2022Q1 employing a Threshold Vector Autoregression model. Credit conditions are approximated by credit growth. The empirical findings exhibit that the financial environment matters. More specifically, the output multipliers of 1 or 2 standard deviations of positive or negative shocks to public spending are less than unity but bigger when the credit market is in a tight condition. When we look at the public spending components, the output multipliers are more than unity for the public investment shocks in the tight credit condition but not for public consumption shocks. In terms of the output components, both private consumption and private investment multipliers are found to be small, though larger in the tight credit condition. Finally, while public spending shock causes an increase in private credit volume in tight credit conditions, it leads to a decline in private credit volume in easy credit conditions. These results are examined in terms of their policy recommendations.

Government Infrastructure Spending and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach

Purpose: Since independence, the Government of Kenya has pursued many objectives, one being economic growth. Over the previous few many years, government expenditure has been developing faster than the GDP growth. Infrastructure, one of the components of public spending, has also experienced tremendous growth in government spending and development, which has not been directly reflected in the GDP growth rate. Following such situation, it calls for analyzing the impact that government infrastructure expenditure has on economic growth in Kenya with a focal point on three sectors beneath infrastructure that the public sector spends closely on; transport, energy and fuel, and Information Communication and Technology (ICT). The study's overall objective is to find out the effects of government spending on the three sampled sectors of government infrastructure on economic growth in Kenya and then draw policy implications from the findings. The specific objectives were; to investigate the effect of transport infrastructure expenditure on economic growth in Kenya, to examine the effect of energy & fuel infrastructure expenditure on economic growth in Kenya, and to examine the effect of ICT infrastructure expenditure on economic growth in Kenya. Further, Bounds F-test to cointegration as well as the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) were used to realize the objectives.
 Methodology: The data was collected covered 1990 – 2020 for the three sectors of infrastructure: transport, energy & fuel, and ICT. Several tests on the time series data were carried out on the secondary data obtained, after which (ARDL) was employed in analysing the data.
 Findings: The outcome showed that government expenditure on transport, energy, fuel, and ICT infrastructure sectors affected economic growth either in the short or the long run. Based on the ECM regression findings, the long-run regression outcome revealed that expenditure on energy and fuel promotes economic growth. On the contrast, the findings showed that government expenditure on transport and ICT sectors exhibited a negative effect on GDP growth rate. Public expenditure on transport and ICT infrastructure sectors positively impacted economic growth in the short term, while the energy and fuel sectors exhibited a negative impact on GDP. Other control variables inclusive of trade openness and FDI showed either a positive or negative effect on economic growth either in long or short run. Inflation, particularly, exhibited a negative effect on GDP in the long run, in addition to within the short run.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Based on the empirical findings, this study validates the Keynesian theory which stipulates that public expenditure positively contributes to economic growth. Based on this theory, public expenditure is an exogenous factor capable of being applied as a policy instrument in promoting economic growth.

Impact of Public Spending in Infrastructure on Influencing Economic Development from East Africa Countries: The Vector Auto Regressive Analysis

Infrastructure development is essential for a country's growth and development. The goal of this study is to look at how public infrastructure expenditure affects economic growth in East Africa. Countries:The Vector Auto Regressive Analysis. The study employed a time series data research approach using secondary data. The population was applied to the financial records from 1984/85 to 2015/16. (Annual Data). The study's sample size was 32 yearly observations. The study's research site was purposefully chosen in Uganda. The data was gathered from a variety of trustworthy sources, including the World Bank. The Johansen co integration test shows a long-run relationship between public investment in infrastructure, communication, and electricity and the rate of economic growth. Simultaneously, the Granger-Causality test revealed indirect causality between economic development rate and all components of public spending used, with a P- Value of 0.04; and the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) consequences revealed that public spending on infrastructure, communication, and energy had a direct effect on economic development rate. According to the study, increased investment on major infrastructure such as water facilities, airports, highways, power, trains, and communication adds considerably to the rate of economic development by boosting the efficiency of the public and private sectors.

Empirical Analysis on Public Expenditure for Education, Human Capital and Economic Growth: Evidence from Honduras

The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between public expenditure for education and human capital on economic growth in Honduras from 1990 to 2020, using the instrumental variables (IV) method, which incorporates the components of public spending on education and human capital, in addition to a set of control variables. The time series were extracted from the World Bank online databases. The results show that there is no correlation between public expenditure for education and economic growth; they also suggest that human capital is not contributing to economic growth, confirming that human capital accumulation is not fully developing. Finally, of the set of control variables considered key by the literature and on which social and economic development depends to a large extent, these would be preventing sustained economic growth, so the government and the population have enormous challenges to overcome.

Do Public Expenditure and Subsidies have an Impact on Chile's GDP?

This paper analyzes the effect of public spending on the Chilean economy by analyzing quarterly data for the period 1990-2018. GDP and public expenditure among other macroeconomic variables have been used to estimate a VEC (Vector Error Correction) model. The main objective is to investigate an important component of public spending, such as Government transfers, and their impact on economic growth. Results show a bidirectional causal relationship of the Granger type between GDP and spending on government subsidies. By the same token, there is a unidirectional relationship of the unemployment rate towards subsidy spending. Through a VEC model, short and longterm elasticities are estimated to analyze the adjustment dynamics between the variables being studied, noting the important effect that GDP has on government subsidies spending and the null effect of these subsidies on Chile’s economic growth.

The failure of stabilization policy: Balanced-budget fiscal rules in the presence of incompressible public expenditures

We consider an infinite horizon neoclassical model with a government that (i) balances its budget at each point in time, (ii) faces unavoidable (incompressible) public expenditures, and (iii) further uses a fiscal rule for the share of variable government spending in output with the purpose of stabilizing the economy. We show that insulating this economy from belief driven fluctuations is not possible if the government finances these two components of public spending using a distortionary proportional income tax. In this case, we always have steady state multiplicity (two steady states) and global indeterminacy, while local indeterminacy is also possible. More precisely, even if a sufficiently procyclical share of the variable government spending component in output is still able to eliminate local indeterminacy, two saddle steady states prevail, so that, depending on expectations, the economy may either converge to the low steady state or to the high steady state. This implies that a regime switching rational expectation equilibrium, where the economy switches between paths converging to the two different steady states, easily arises. As expectations influence long run outcomes, our model is able to generate large and sudden expansions and contractions in response to expectation shocks.

Disentangling Civilian and Military Spending Shocks: A Bayesian DSGE Approach for the US Economy

In this paper, we disentangle public spending components in order analyse their effects on the U.S. economy. Our Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) model includes both civilian and military expenditures. We take into account the changes in the effects of these public spending components before and after the structural break that occurred in the U.S. economy around 1980, namely financial liberalisation. Therefore, we estimate our model with Bayesian methods for two sample periods: 1954:3–1979:2 and 1983:1–2008:2. Our results suggest that total government spending has a positive effect on output, but it induces a fall in private consumption. Moreover, we find important differences between the effects of civilian and military spending. In the pre-1980 period, higher civilian spending induced a rise in private consumption, whereas military spending shocks systematically decreased it. Our findings indicate that civilian spending has a more positive impact on output than military expenditure. Our robustness analysis assesses the impact of public spending shocks under alternative monetary policy assumptions.

Organized crime and public spending: a panel data analysis

The aim of this paper is to investigate, empirically, what components of public spending imply a decreasing effect on organized crime and what components create opportunities for organized crime, discussing also the role of government efficiency. Using a panel data analysis, the results show a strikingly consistent pattern for the EU Member States. Organized crime mainly operates in the distribution of government spending for local public goods and public provision of private services. There is a decreasing effect on organized crime of the public expenditure devoted to education and social policy. Government efficiency in public spending is beneficial to limit the opportunities of the organized crime.

Public spending structure, minimal state and economic growth in France (1870–2010)

There is now a vast literature on the effects of the various functional components of public spending on growth. This contribution focuses on the effects of the composition of public spending on growth with reference to France for the period 1870–2010. Using a new database we show that the only functional component of expenditure that clearly contributes to the growth of French output is the expenditure which is aimed at the protection of property rights. Public interventions in support of the economy, on the other hand, have no impact on growth. In the area of social spending, only health expenditure contributes to output growth. In the case of France the empirical evidence therefore seems to confirm not only the crucial importance of the protection of property rights highlighted by neo-institutional theory, but also Smith's minimal state hypothesis: the restriction of the size of the state and the delimitation to its essential functions tends to favour output growth.

Inflation Dynamics in Algeria

In thispaper, we analyze Inflation Dynamics in Algeria between 2002 and 2016. We use a Vector Auto Regressive model (VAR), impulse response functions (IRF) and variance error decomposition (VDC) to uncover possible links between public spending component sand inflation. Wetest for the sources and dynamics of inflation in Algeria by focusing on public spending, since they are expected to exert a strong influence on the aggregate demand and hence inflation. According to the results we found, inflation in Algeria is persistent; shocks are lasting longer and having impact on the future inflation path. Social transfers and equipment spending are found to be the most contributing components of public spending in explaining inflation in Algeria.

Inflation Dynamics in Algeria

In thispaper, we analyze Inflation Dynamics in Algeria between 2002 and 2016. We use a Vector Auto Regressive model (VAR), impulse response functions (IRF) and variance error decomposition (VDC) to uncover possible links between public spending component sand inflation. Wetest for the sources and dynamics of inflation in Algeria by focusing on public spending, since they are expected to exert a strong influence on the aggregate demand and hence inflation. According to the results we found, inflation in Algeria is persistent; shocks are lasting longer and having impact on the future inflation path. Social transfers and equipment spending are found to be the most contributing components of public spending in explaining inflation in Algeria.

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Austerity, Unemployment and Migration

High unemployment and fiscal austerity during the Great Recession have led to significant migration outfl ows in those European countries that suffered a deep deterioration of their economy, Greece being the most obvious case. This paper introduces endogenous migration in a small open economy DSGE model to analyze the business cycle effects from the interaction of fiscal consolidation instruments with migration. A tax-based consolidation induces the strongest increase in emigration, leading to the highest costs in terms of aggregate GDP and unemployment in the medium run. As a result, the unemployment gains from migration are only temporary. However, in terms of per capita GDP, cuts in the components of public spending that are either productive or utility-enhancing can lead to a deeper contraction than tax hikes or wasteful spending cuts. The introduction of potential migration by the employed implies even higher unemployment costs, a deeper demand contraction, and an increase in both the tax hike and the time required to achieve the same size of fiscal consolidation.

The effects of military and non-military government expenditures on private consumption

In this article, we provide evidence that civilian and military government spending have specific characteristics that can affect private consumption differently. Our vector autoregressive (VAR) estimates for the US economy for the period 1960–2013 show that civilian expenditure induces a positive and significant response on private consumption, whereas military spending has a negative impact. We also analyze the effects of these public spending components for the subsamples 1960–79 and 1983–2013, respectively. Our results show that the main transmission channels of both civilian and military expenditures have changed over time. We adopt a new Keynesian approach and develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in order to simulate the empirical evidence. Both the larger persistence of shocks in military spending and the different financing mechanisms, which account for the propensity of policymakers to use budget deficits to finance wars, mimic the differences in the empirical responses of private consumption. Simulated impulse response functions of alternative specification models prove the robustness of our analysis. In particular, we assess the impact of civilian and military shocks in the presence of different (i) shares of heterogeneous households, (ii) price rigidities, and (iii) monetary reactions in response to different government shocks.

Evolution of the Hungarian tax structure after 2010

The Hungarian tax system has undergone significant changes in recent years. The weight of labour taxes decreased by 3.3 percentage points, while the weight of consumption taxes increased by 3.7 percentage points between 2007 and 2012. This type of tax shift is not a country-specific one, but its rate is one of the largest in Europe. This study gives a brief overview of literature, followed by a presentation of the Hungarian tax structure in an international comparison, and a summary of the main changes of the tax system and relating measures, which entered into force after 2010. Then, in addition to the tax centralization indicators published by the Eurostat, an adjusted tax centralization indicator for the EU states is presented, which eliminates the tax component of public spending and transfers, takes into account the mandatory private pension contribution and compares the adjusted tax burden to the corresponding private tax base.

The interrelationship between defence spending, public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between defence spending, other components of public spending and economic growth for the 1952–2012 period in China using Granger causality tests and generalised impulse response functions based on vector error correction models. The empirical results reveal two long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables and also show that defence spending inversely and unidirectionally Granger impacts economic growth. Furthermore, empirical findings point to a trade-off relationship between defence spending and public expenditures in China. From a policy maker’s perspective, the findings reported herein imply that a decrease in defence spending may stimulate economic growth.

An Analysis of the Relationship between Public Spending Components and Private investments in Nigeria

This paper examined the relationship between components of public spending and private investments in Nigeria for the period 1981 to 2010. Utilizing an error correction modeling procedure, the study revealed that components of public spending have different impact on private investment both in the long run and the short run. Specifically, recurrent and government final consumption expenditure had positive (crowd-in) effect on private investment while capital expenditure had negative (crowd-out) effect on private investment. Thus, the study recommended that greater emphasis should be placed on capital expenditure.

Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors

I use a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. Loans from official creditors typically finance multiyear public spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loan approval decisions taken before the realization of contemporaneous shocks. In a large sample of 102 developing countries over the period 1970–2010, the one-year spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4. (JEL E62, F34, F35, H50, O23)

The Effects of Fiscal Shocks on the Exchange Rate in the EMU and Differences with the US

We analyse the impact of government spending shocks on the real effective exchange rate and net exports in the Euro Area within a standard structural VAR framework. We employ a new database that contains quarterly fiscal variables for the Euro Area as a whole. We show that higher government spending leads to real exchange rate appreciation and to a fall in net exports, jointly with lower primary budgetary surpluses, which turns out to be fully consistent with the “twin deficits” hypothesis. The different components of public spending, namely wage and non-wage consumption expenditure, overall public consumption expenditure and public investment, bring about real appreciations. Our results are therefore also consistent both with the home-bias hypothesis of public expenditure and with public investment contributing to generating relative productivity gains in the traded goods sector. Contrary to what is observed in the Euro Area, the real effective exchange rate depreciates in the US in response to higher government spending. This discrepancy can ultimately be explained by the reaction of nominal interest rate spreads and the uncovered interest parity condition. The dissimilar reaction of short-term nominal interest rate spreads is attributed to two factors, namely the role of the US dollar as a safe haven currency and the countercyclical behaviour of discretionary government spending in the US.

CORRUPTION, MILITARY SPENDING AND GROWTH

This paper considers the effect of corruption and military spending on economic growth, analysing both the direct impact of public spending and the effect of allocating resources between categories of public spending within the framework of an endogenous growth model. The model exhibits non-linearities as a result of the links between the components of public spending, corruption and economic growth. The main findings of the empirical analysis confirm the expectation that corruption and military burden lower the growth rate of gross domestic product per capita. They also suggest that when the effect of the complementarity between military spending and corruption is omitted, as in most studies, the impact of military burden on economic performance is underestimated.

Surprising Amount of Public Funds Subsidizes U.S. Health Care

Surprising Amount of Public Funds Subsidizes U.S. Health Care