Public Shootings Research Articles

Correlates of Severity of Mass Public Shootings in the United States, 1966–2022

This paper explores the correlates of mass shooting severity in the United States. Relying on the stacked data from 1966 to 2022 in the Violence Project (version 5), we developed a model of mass shooting severity using regression models. Results show that having more firepower at the shooting scenes, lack of employment, being married, and more mental health issues increase casualties in mass shootings. Policies that limit the accessibility of assault weapons with high capacities and address mental health issues would effectively reduce the casualties of mass shootings.

Is There a Policy That Reduces Mass Public Shooting Deaths?

Is There a Policy That Reduces Mass Public Shooting Deaths?

Exploring Community Resilience towards Rebuilding Community Identity After the Portapique Mass Shooting in Canada

This research aims to explore the significance of citizen participation in rebuilding a sense of community identity and facilitating the communal healing process in the aftermath of the public shooting in Portapique, Nova Scotia. We approached this research using autoethnography and completed a thematic analysis of the first author’s journal entries written in the ten months following the public shooting. We generated two higher-order themes- posttraumatic stress responses and factors of resilience. These two themes provided the framework on which to organise the data. The findings indicate the significance citizen participation and event organisation have on a community’s ability to exhibit resilience and the detrimental effects that can occur when support is not community-led. Through the lens of participation in community organising (the Portapique Community Build-Up project), participation was the crucial link to building a sense of community identity.

Estimating the Global Prevalence of Mass Public Shootings.

Previous studies have yielded widely divergent conclusions about the percentage of all mass public shootings globally that take place in the US, ranging from a low of 3% to a high of 36%. Because of documented underreporting of lower-severity attacks involving fewer than 10 victim fatalities in US cases in these studies, it is reasonable to assume that this underreporting issue also applies to their measurement of mass public shootings outside the US. To estimate the total number of mass public shootings worldwide, we use multiple assumptions and modeling approaches, including a hierarchical Bayesian model. Our estimates show the US accounted for anywhere between 16% and 26% of the world's mass public shootings during the 1976 to 2012 period. These estimates suggest the US share of the total is between four and six times higher than its 4% share of the world's population.

Who lives, who dies, who decides: Differences between mass public shooters who survive, are killed, and commit suicide

AbstractThis study provides an in‐depth analysis of American mass public shooting conclusions between 1966 and 2017. Specifically, this work examines differences in factors contributing to the perpetrator's likelihood of surviving, being killed, and committing suicide. Ten hypotheses, rooted in previous homicide, suicide, homicide‐suicide, and mass public shooting literature consider different psychological, situational, and background factors shaping the outcome of mass public shootings. Significant findings indicate factors influencing perpetrators' suicide include suicidal ideation, higher victim counts, and suicide copycat effects. Factors influencing perpetrators being killed similarly include higher victim counts, the arrival of law enforcement, lethal/non‐lethal resistance, and government targets. This investigation provides practical implications for practitioners and policymakers, especially law enforcement and mental health practitioners, seeking to develop intervention and prevention strategies for addressing suicidal ideation and its most lethal outcome: mass public shootings.

Place-Based and Experiential Pedagogies: Teaching radical concepts in social movements and political sociology

Drawing from manifestos, online communications, interviews, and other written reports, we examine the words and thoughts of five mass shooters from 2007-2019. These documents provide important insights into the structural conditions and ideological factors that have contributed to increases in the frequency and lethality of mass public shootings in the U.S. since the mid-2000s. Unlike studies that focus on gun laws and/or the mental health or personality traits of mass shooters, we emphasize the connection between mass public shootings in the U.S. and the prevailing neoliberal ideology that has, particularly in recent decades, shaped not only material conditions but value systems, social relations, and conceptions of the self in accordance to the logic of the market. We suggest the increasing digitization of social life under neoliberalism has led to a form of hyper-neoliberalism that amplifies conditions such as social isolation, low self-esteem, and egoistical forms of agency, all of which discourage empathy, erode social bonds, and foster a fertile environment for various forms of social degradation and violence. Under these conditions, mass public shootings can be regarded as an attempt to seek respect or recognition—what classical Greeks described as thymos—among individuals, particularly men, who feel alienated and irrelevant. [Article copies available for a fee from The Transformative Studies Institute. E-mail address: journal@transformativestudies.org Website: http://www.transformativestudies.org ©2022 by The Transformative Studies Institute. All rights reserved.]

Averting Tragedy: An Exploration of Thwarted Mass Public Shootings Relative to Completed Attacks

Scholarship on mass public shootings has increased in recent years as comprehensive datasets have become more available. As a result, much is known about the contextual and offender related characteristics of such attacks. However, less research has been conducted on attacks that were planned but ultimately did not occur. Understanding how mass public shootings may be thwarted or averted is important for both policy and theoretical reasons. In this paper, we describe a new dataset of averted mass public shooting threats (N = 194) from 2000–2019 and compare them to mass public shootings that were completed during this time (N = 97). Several noteworthy findings emerged, including that nearly half of the averted cases were reported by a friend or acquaintance, most targeted a specific location or group, and averted cases were more likely to involve school targets and co-offenders. Implications are discussed.

US Mass public shootings since Columbine: victims per incident by race and ethnicity of the perpetrator

White individuals in the United States (US) have historically had disproportionate access to firearms. The real-life availability of firearms, including those most lethal, may still be greater among White populations, manifesting in the number of victims in shootings. We compared the severity of US mass public shootings since Columbine by race and/or ethnicity of the perpetrator using The Violence Project Database of Mass Shooters, assessing fatalities (minimum four), total victims, type, and legal status of guns used. We used data visualization and Quasi-Poisson regression of victims minus four – accounting for truncation at 4 fatalities – to assess fatality and total victim rates comparing Non-Hispanic (NH) White with NH Black shooters, using winsorization to account for outlier bias from the 2017 Las Vegas shooting. In 104 total mass public shootings until summer 2021, NH White shooters had higher median fatalities (6 [IQR 5–9] versus 5 [IQR 4–6]) and total victims (9 [IQR 6–19] versus 7 [IQR 5–12]) per incident. Confidence intervals of NH Black versus NH White fatalities rate ratios (RR) ranged from 0.17–1.15, and of total victim RRs from 0.15–1.04. White shooters were overrepresented in mass public shootings with the most victims, typically involving legally owned assault rifles. To better understand the consequences when firearms are readily available, including assault rifles, we need a database of all US gun violence. Our assessment of total victims beyond fatalities emphasizes the large number of US gun violence survivors and the need to understand their experiences to capture the full impact of gun violence.

A comparative content analysis of newspaper coverage about extreme risk protection order policies in passing and non-passing US states

BackgroundExtreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws are a tool for firearm violence prevention (in effect in 19 states), often enacted in the wake of a public mass shooting when media coverage of gun violence tends to spike. We compared news media framing of ERPOs in states that passed and those that considered but did not pass such laws after the 2018 mass shooting in Parkland, Florida.MethodsWe conducted a content analysis of 244 newspaper articles about ERPOs, published in 2018, in three passing (FL, VT, RI) and three non-passing states (PA, OH, CO). Measures included language used, stakeholders mentioned, and scientific evidence cited. We use chi-square tests to compare the proportion of articles with each measure of interest in passing versus non-passing states.ResultsCompared to newspaper coverage of non-passing states, news articles about ERPOs in passing states more often used only official policy names for ERPOs (38% vs. 23%, p = .03), used less restrictive language such as “prevent” to describe the process of suspending firearm access (15% vs. 3%, p < .01), mentioned gun violence prevention advocacy groups (41% vs. 28%, p = .08), and referenced research on ERPOs (17% vs. 7%, p = .03). Articles about passing states also more often explicitly stated that a violent event was or could have been prevented by an ERPO (20% vs. 6%, p < .01).ConclusionsMedia messaging that frames gun violence as preventable, emphasizes identifiable markers of risk, and draws on data in conjunction with community wisdom may support ERPO policy passage. As more states consider ERPO legislation, especially given endorsement by the Biden-Harris administration, deeper knowledge about successful media framing of these life-saving policies can help shape public understandings and support.

Understanding More Than 50 Years of Mass Public Shootings as a Function of Routine Activities

Mass public shootings have drawn considerable attention from the public, policymakers, and researchers, yet despite what is known about these events, assessments to date have failed to consider their timing as a function of the locations where they occur. Using data on 401 U.S. mass public shootings occurring between 1966 and 2020, we examine these events’ temporal patterns. The findings suggest that the occurrence of mass public shootings may not be as random as once assumed but instead mirror the routine activities of the perpetrators, their victims, and the shootings’ locations. Considerations for prevention and response policies also are offered.

Does Media Coverage of Mass Public Shootings Create a Contagion Effect?

Abstract Mass public shootings in the United States have increased in number and severity in recent years, and there has been a corresponding rise in media reporting of such incidents. Does media coverage of these events lead to a short-term increase in the probability of additional shootings? James Alan Fox, Nathan E. Sanders, Emma E. Fridel, Grant Duwe and Michael Rocque investigate

Community, faith, and public violence: A county-level examination of religious institutions and mass public shootings in the United States

ABSTRACT Americans confront public forms of violence on a strikingly regular basis. Shootings within schools, religious institutions or simply crowded spaces have attracted significant media attention. The question remains, then, as to what role, if any, can existing institutions play in mitigating these factors – and, if so, what institutions? I argue that the presence of religious institutions will decrease the likelihood of a mass public shooting occurring. Religious institutions are particularly effective at building social capital. Mass public shootings in particular speak to widespread alienation from parochial environments. I test this theory using county-level data on religious congregations and mass public shootings for the lower 48 states. I find that that over the range of religious congregation presence, the likelihood of a mass public shooting declines from 1 in 40 to effectively zero. This result is robust across multiple definitions of ‘mass public shooting’ but decreases in effectivity as the definition is broadened to other types of mass shootings. This study fills a well-documented void of county-level structural analysis in the existing literature.

Communication of Intent to Do Harm Preceding Mass Public Shootings in the United States, 1966 to 2019

Understanding the motivation of a mass shooter's intent to do harm can help practitioners and policy makers develop more effective intervention strategies. To examine the prevalence of communication of intent to do harm, known as leakage, in a sample of 170 mass public shooters from 1966 to 2019; the characteristics of perpetrators who do and do not leak their plans; and whether leakage is a form of fame-seeking behavior or a cry for help among individuals who are in crisis or suicidal. This cross-sectional study included perpetrators who killed 4 or more people in a public space from 1996 to 2019 and were included in a comprehensive database of US mass shootings. That database was built from August 2017 to December 2019, and analysis took place from January to May 2021. Leakage was identified and coded using publicly available records. Any communication to a third party of an intent to do harm prior to the shooting was coded as leakage. Logistic regression models were used to examine the risk factors associated with leakage. Models estimating leakage were examined to assess the 2 hypothesized pathways to leakage (the cry-for-help model and the fame-seeking model). The 170 participants in this sample included 166 (97.7%) male perpetrators and 3 (2.3%) female perpetrators, with a mean (SD) age of 34 (12) years. Overall, 161 participants had known race and ethnicity: 11 (6.8%) Asian individuals, 35 (21.7%) Black individuals, 14 (8.7%) Latinx individuals, 7 (4.4%) Middle Eastern individuals, 3 (1.9%) Native American individuals, 89 (55.3%) White individuals, and 2 (1.2%) individuals with other race and ethnicity. Overall, 79 mass shooters (46.5%) leaked their plans. Of perpetrators who leaked their plans, 35 (44.3%) leaked specific plans about a mass shooting, and 44 (55.1%) leaked nonspecific plans about generalized violence. The study findings indicate that leakage was associated with receiving counseling (odds ratio, 7.0; 95% CI, 2.0-24.8) and suicidality (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% CI, 1.0-13.6), suggesting that leakage may best be characterized as a cry for help from perpetrators prior to their act. In this study, nearly half of the perpetrators of mass shootings leaked their plans. Leakage was associated with receiving counseling and suicidality. Leakage is a critical moment for mental health intervention to prevent gun violence. Opportunities to report threats of violence need to be increased. Traditional threat assessment models focused on specific threats of violence may miss critical opportunities for intervention.

Distribution of wounding patterns in casualties from mass shooting events

Introduction The incidence and severity of public mass shootings, and mass casualty incidents (MCI), continues to rise. Understanding the wounding pattern and incidence of potentially preventable death after these incidents is key not only to Health System and Trauma Center emergency response planning but also to community outreach and initial emergency interventions. Methods A retrospective study of autopsy reports after events with at least 10 fatalities exclusive of the assailants identified via the Federal Bureau of Investigation database from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2020 was performed. Sites of injury, identification of weaponry, and identification of potentially survivable wounds were compiled. Results Nine events including 203 victims were reviewed. Overall, 56% of gunshots were to the head/neck/face; 37% were to the chest; 43% were to the abdomen/torso/back; 31% were to the lower extremity; and 36% were to the upper extremity. On average, there were 29 fatalities per event. Conclusion Emergency response disaster care strategy should focus on immediate point of care at the site of wounding by both the civilian population and medical personnel, as well as rapid extrication of victims for definitive medical care. Review of these autopsy results indicates exsanguination, often treatable, is the primary cause of death—supporting community education efforts in hemorrhage control. The location of the wounding patterns seen in this study warrants primary integration of craniomaxillofacial, orthopedic trauma, neurotrauma, and surgical critical care/trauma surgical specialists into the initial response team for MCI.

Examining differences between mass, multiple, and single-victim homicides to inform prevention: findings from the National Violent Death Reporting System

BackgroundMulti-victim homicides are a persistent public health problem confronting the United States. Previous research shows that homicide rates in the U.S. are approximately seven times higher than those of other high-income countries, driven by firearm homicide rates that are 25 times higher; 31% of public mass shootings in the world also occur in the U.S.. The purpose of this analysis is to examine the characteristics of mass, multiple, and single homicides to help identify prevention points that may lead to a reduction in different types of homicides.MethodsWe used all available years (2003–2017) and U.S. states/jurisdictions (35 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico) included in CDC’s National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS), a public health surveillance system which combines death certificate, coroner/medical examiner, and law enforcement reports into victim- and incident-level data on violent deaths. NVDRS includes up to 600 standard variables per incident; further information on types of mental illness among suspected perpetrators and incident resolution was qualitatively coded from case narratives. Data regarding number of persons nonfatally shot within incidents were cross-validated when possible with several other resources, including government reports and the Gun Violence Archive. Mass homicides (4+ victims), multiple homicides (2-3 victims) and single homicides were analyzed to assess group differences using Chi-square tests with Bonferroni-corrected post-hoc comparisons.ResultsMass homicides more often had female, child, and non-Hispanic white victims than other homicide types. Compared with victims of other homicide types, victims of mass homicides were more often killed by strangers or someone else they did not know well, or by family members. More than a third were related to intimate partner violence. Approximately one-third of mass homicide perpetrators had suicidal thoughts/behaviors noted in the time leading up to the incident. Multi-victim homicides were more often perpetrated with semi-automatic firearms than single homicides. When accounting for nonfatally shot victims, over 4 times as many incidents could have resulted in mass homicide.ConclusionsThese findings underscore the important interconnections among multiple forms of violence. Primary prevention strategies addressing shared risk and protective factors are key to reducing these incidents.

Correction to: Forecasting the Severity of Mass Public Shootings in the United States

Correction to: Forecasting the Severity of Mass Public Shootings in the United States

Forecasting the Severity of Mass Public Shootings in the United States

Mass shootings seemingly lie outside the grasp of explanation and prediction, because they are statistical outliers—in terms of their frequency and severity—within the broader context of crime and violence. Innovative scholarship has developed procedures to estimate the future likelihood of rare catastrophic events such as earthquakes that exceed 7.0 on the Richter scale or terrorist attacks that are similar in magnitude to 9/11. Because the frequency and severity of mass public shootings follow a distribution resembling these previously studied rare catastrophic event classes, we utilized similar procedures to forecast the future severity of these incidents within the United States. Using a dataset containing 156 mass public shootings that took place in the U.S. between 1976 and 2018, we forecast the future probability of attacks reaching each of a variety of severity levels in terms of the number of gunfire victims killed and wounded across three different choices of tail model, three different scenarios for future incident rates, and other parameters. Using a set of mid-range parameters, we find that the probability of an event as deadly as the 2017 massacre in Las Vegas occurring before 2040 is 35% (90% uncertainty interval [8, 72]) and we characterize how this projection varies substantially with choice of modeling parameters. Our results suggest an uncertain, but concerning, future risk of large-scale mass public shootings, while also illustrating how such forecasts depend on assumptions made about the tail location and other details of the severity distribution model.

Gun Owners and Gun Control: Shared Status, Divergent Opinions

After each mass public shooting, an inevitable debate surrounding the tools used to carry out the attack ensues. This debate is marked by two sides: those who endorse controlling access to firearms and those who oppose restrictions to the Second Amendment. Implicit in this dialogue is the assumption that gun owners are a homogenous group who stand in opposition to the gun control legislation. Using a national sample of American gun‐owning adults, we examine gun control attitudes among those who share the gun owner‐status and uncover divergent views split down political lines. Political partisanship and values are a major source of gun owners’ policy preferences. Republican gun owners and those with rightward political values are more likely to oppose gun control measures. Gun control, it seems, is politicized even among those who own guns, which suggests guns are political symbols with a meaning that extends beyond mere self‐interest in protecting ownership status.

The Contagion of Mass Shootings: The Interdependence of Large-Scale Massacres and Mass Media Coverage

ABSTRACT Mass public shootings have generated significant levels of fear in the recent years, with many observers criticizing the media for fostering a moral panic, if not an actual rise in the frequency of such attacks. Scholarly research suggests that the media can potentially impact the prevalence of mass shootings in two respects: (i) some individuals may be inspired to mimic the actions of highly publicized offenders; and (ii) a more general contagion process may manifest as a temporary increase in the likelihood of shootings associated with a triggering event. In this study of mass shootings since 2000, we focus on short-term contagion, rather than imitation that can traverse years. Specifically, after highlighting the sequencing of news coverage prior and subsequent to mass shootings, we apply multivariate point process models to disentangle the correlated incidence of mass public shootings and news coverage of such events. The findings suggest that mass public shootings have a strong effect on the level of news reporting, but that news reporting on the topic has little impact, at least in the relative short-term, on the subsequent prevalence of mass shootings. Finally, the results appear to rule out the presence of strong self-excitation of mass shootings, placing clear limits on generalized short-term contagion effects. Supplementary files for this article are available online.

Gendered Massacres: Examining the Effects of Cultural and Structural Gender Inequality on the Incidence of Mass Public Shootings.

With nearly 97% of incidents within the past 40 years committed by men, mass public shootings are a gendered social problem. Yet, empirical research on this phenomenon largely neglects gender hierarchy and cultural factors as predictors, in favor of individual- and event-level characteristics. Despite calls from scholars to place masculinity and threats to patriarchal hegemony at the center of analyses, no empirical studies to our knowledge have examined the role of gender inequality in mass public shootings. The findings indicate that gender inequality, structural and ideological, are important predictors of mass public shootings and that future research should continue to investigate such violence from a gendered lens.