Public Investment Decisions Research Articles

Why do we argue about risk? The invisibility of worldviews in marine decision-making

The paper asks “why are we always arguing about risk?” It explores what drives risk perception in decision-making processes in Aotearoa New Zealand’s marine environment. The research’s holistic framing shows that the prevailing concern with risk and uncertainty (RU) issues in government and managerial settings deflects attention from and hides the background influences of worldviews. After introducing the invisibilities around RU and outlining worldview-based perceptions of risk, the paper turns to an empirical investigation focusing on deep-seabed mining investment in the context of Aotearoa’s Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf Act (Environmental Effects) 2012. Enacted as part of neoliberal reforms, the Act seeks to reduce environmental degradation in tandem with economic growth. A situated methodology examines a consenting process within this Act as a strategic site to establish expressions of RU and shaping invisibilities. Three key influences are revealed: the positionality of decision-makers, their disciplinary training, and the largely unknown filtering of environmental and economic options that come from 3 worldviews held in Aotearoa (dominant social paradigm, new environmental paradigm, Te Ao Māori). We contend hidden worldviews impact on economy–environment relations and ensuing economic and environmental practices and outcomes. This arises because they underpin and fuel debates around what RU are acceptable and how benefits should be distributed (public vs. private benefits investment decisions, and economy vs. environment). Unless we recognize and understand these hidden influences, we simply cannot work with them. This insight has major implications for how RU ideas might be framed and navigated in emerging policy settings.

Optimizing public investments: A Sustainable Economic, Environmental, and Social Investment Multi-criteria Decision Model (SEESIM)

One of the most important aspects for the economic and social growth of a country is high efficiency of public investments. This imperative has never been more critical, especially in the context of Europe and Italy, where the integration of environmental, economic, and social goals is essential to address the multifaceted challenges of the 21st century. This research introduces the Sustainable Economic, Environmental, and Social Investment Model (SEESIM), a novel multi-criteria decision-making framework designed to ensure the sustainability of projects as their validity over time, especially from a National Recovery and Resilience Plan perspective. Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SEESIM integrates environmental, economic, and social criteria as useful tool to evaluate a project in the post-funding phase, ensuring a balanced approach to efficiency and sustainability. The model is adaptable to various regional contexts, providing a transparent and replicable methodology for assessing the impacts and costs of public investments. An experimental scenario demonstrates SEESIM’s utility in guiding investment decisions, highlighting its potential to significantly enhance the effectiveness of public resources in achieving long-term sustainability goals. SEESIM represents a pivotal advancement in sustainable development strategies, offering a comprehensive tool for integrating multi-dimensional sustainability criteria into public investment decisions.

Pengaruh kompetensi dan integritas pada kualitas audit dengan key audit matters sebagai moderasi

This research aims to determine the influence of competency and integrity on audit quality with key audit matters as moderation at public accounting firms in DKI Jakarta that are active and registered with the Financial Services Authority (OJK). This research uses primary data with a survey method, namely distributing questionnaires with sample determination using a random sampling method, which 127 respondents used to spread across several Public Accounting Firms in DKI Jakarta. The data analysis method used in this research is the multiple regression method. This research shows that competence and integrity positively affect audit quality, and related moderating variables show that key audit matters (KAMs) cannot strengthen the relationship between competence and integrity on audit quality. Public interest statements Ensuring auditors' competency and integrity and effectively utilizing key matters (KAM) makes the audit process more transparent. This fosters greater public confidence in audited financial reports and ensures the reliability of company-provided information. Regulating the influence of competence and integrity on audit quality through KAM is expected to enhance transparency in financial information management, allowing for more informed public investment and financial decisions.

Determinants of Public Investment Decision in Forex Robots Trading: Evidence from Indonesia

Determinants of Public Investment Decision in Forex Robots Trading: Evidence from Indonesia

A wise investment by urban governments: Evidence from intelligent sports facilities

As the pursuit of sustainable development goals has become an increasingly prominent component of urban governance in recent years, compliance with sustainability agendas is now an essential consideration in public investment decisions. Although government spending on the construction of intelligent buildings can help the government achieve its sustainability objectives, steady funding for these projects may not be possible during budget cuts. Demonstrating the added benefits of sustainability-focused, government-funded construction projects can help to justify budgeting for intelligent buildings. This paper explores the externalities of a community sports center constructed to intelligent building specifications in New Taipei City, Taiwan, measured by the willingness to pay for proximal residence and accessibility to the community sports center. By comparing this smart community sports center with one designed and constructed along traditional lines, the paper finds that the effect of positive externalities is more significant in the community sports center housed in intelligent buildings. The paper highlights the importance of community sports centers by showing the price premiums for houses near them. It indicates that directing public investment toward sustainable public infrastructure will likely provide added benefits. The evidence provides support for emerging markets to propose policies that are consistent with sustainability goals.

What is known about osteoporosis research in Latin America?: A bibliometric analysis of three decades.

Identifying the gaps in scientific production in a topic allows directing research in order to make better public investment decisions. Bibliometric data on osteoporosis in Latin America are very limited and unclear and, given the impact of this disease in this region, it is relevant to analyze the latest trends in the subject. The study approach was quantitative, observational-descriptive, cross-sectional. Data were collected from journals indexed in Scopus between 1990 and 2019, using a search strategy that included Medical Subject Headings terms for "Osteoporosis" and other related terms, as well as VOSviewer software to create cooperative and co-occurrence word maps. 3261 documents were analyzed, with an annual scientific production rate of 5% (163 documents), where 73.9% were original articles. The countries with the highest scientific production in osteoporosis were Brazil (55.2%) and Argentina (18%). Extra-regional cooperation was mainly with the United States (16.35%) and Spain (5.18%). Six of the 10 most productive countries had their own government agencies as the main funders. The National Council for Scientific and Technological Development was the institution that funded the most (n = 194). The term "osteoporosis" together with the terms "bone mineral density," "fractures," and "menopause" were the most frequently addressed subjects. Latin American scientific production in osteoporosis has shown a significant increase. However, in the last 3 years it has shown a slight reduction. Greater intraregional collaboration involving universities, institutions and health societies is needed.

How Does Public Capital Affect Enterprise Technological Innovation Based on Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

Public capital is an important force for promoting industrial agglomeration and enterprise technological innovation, and enterprise technological innovation is the core element in promoting green economic growth. To further reveal the influence mechanism of public capital on enterprise technological innovation, based on the data of A-share listed companies in China from 2007 to 2020, this paper uses the nonlinear moderating effect model and the intermediating effect model to verify the nonlinear influence and transmission mechanism of public capital on enterprise technological innovation. This paper discusses the influence and mechanism of public capital on enterprise innovation from the perspective of industrial agglomeration. The study finds that public capital has a significant role in promoting enterprise technological innovation. Moreover, economic public capital plays a greater role in promoting enterprise technological innovation than social public capital. Further analysis shows that the innovation effect of public capital is nonlinearly regulated by industrial agglomeration. In the initial stage of industrial agglomeration, the higher the degree of industrial agglomeration, the weaker the innovation effect of public capital; however, in the advanced stage of industrial agglomeration, the higher the degree of industrial agglomeration, the stronger the innovation effect of public capital. The nonlinear effect is realized by affecting the profits of enterprises. From enterprise heterogeneity, public capital has a significant role in promoting the technological innovation of non-state-owned enterprises but has no significant impact on the technological innovation of state-owned enterprises; public capital has a significant positive effect on the technological innovation of mid- and high-end technology enterprises, while its impact on the technological innovation of low-end technology enterprises is not significant. From the type of innovation output, public capital has a significant role in promoting enterprise green technology innovation, and the role of public capital in promoting enterprise green invention patents is greater than that of green utility model patents. This study provides a theoretical basis for government public capital investment decisions and empirical evidence for the sustainable development of enterprise technological innovation.

The Tentative Promise of Social Return on Investment

Social return on investment (SROI), an evaluation method that compares monetized social value generated to costs invested, is in ascendance. Conceptually akin to cost–benefit analysis, it shares some of its challenges; however, these are heightened due to the expressed promise of using SROI to compare programs and inform philanthropic and public investment decisions. In this paper, I describe the landscape of SROI studies to date, including a review of a representative sample of SROI evaluations, which have been vetted by Social Value International. I also draw on the experience of an organization that has used SROI in earnest as a decision-making tool to provide an assessment of both the methods that underpin it and the ways in which it is applied. I conclude by offering some recommendations to consider to get the most value from this evaluation method while avoiding some potential pitfalls.

Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity

Economic complexity offers a potentially powerful paradigm to understand key societal issues and challenges of our time. The underlying idea is that growth, development, technological change, income inequality, spatial disparities, and resilience are the visible outcomes of hidden systemic interactions. The study of economic complexity seeks to understand the structure of these interactions and how they shape various socioeconomic processes. This emerging field relies heavily on big data and machine learning techniques. This brief introduction to economic complexity has three aims. The first is to summarize key theoretical foundations and principles of economic complexity. The second is to briefly review the tools and metrics developed in the economic complexity literature that exploit information encoded in the structure of the economy to find new empirical patterns. The final aim is to highlight the insights from economic complexity to improve prediction and political decision-making. Institutions including the World Bank, the European Commission, the World Economic Forum, the OECD, and a range of national and regional organizations have begun to embrace the principles of economic complexity and its analytical framework. We discuss policy implications of this field, in particular the usefulness of building recommendation systems for major public investment decisions in a complex world.

Can the Media Prevent Economic Crises by Alerting of their Risk? A Debate on the Limited Effects of the Watchdog

Research on coverage of the economic developments in the run-up to the 2008 crisis concludes that the media did not warn of the risks involved, failing in their watchdog role by not anticipating the crisis. However, a key issue remains unaddressed: what would have happened if the media had warned about the factors of instability that led to the crisis? This article explores some answers to this question, for the 2008 crisis and for economic crises in general. To do this, we perform a joint critical review of the literature on watchdog journalism, on economic crises theories, and on media effects on the economy. More specifically, we consider the media’s influence on financial markets, on macroeconomic dynamics (via conditioning the households’ and firms’ behavior), and on economic policy; discussing, at the theoretical level and supported by the empirical evidence available, the ways each kind of media influence could (or not) prevent a structural economic crisis. If the crisis is interpreted as the consequence of dysfunctions in the economic model, or specific errors by agents, it is logical to think that the media could have helped prevent it, by warning of the dangers and promoting changes in public policies and investment decisions. If, on the other hand, the crisis is understood as a necessary readjustment of capitalism in the face of an exhausted accumulation model, the media’s influence would have been very limited in terms of preventing it.

The new paradigm of economic complexity

Economic complexity offers a potentially powerful paradigm to understand key societal issues and challenges of our time. The underlying idea is that growth, development, technological change, income inequality, spatial disparities, and resilience are the visible outcomes of hidden systemic interactions. The study of economic complexity seeks to understand the structure of these interactions and how they shape various socioeconomic processes. This emerging field relies heavily on big data and machine learning techniques. This brief introduction to economic complexity has three aims. The first is to summarize key theoretical foundations and principles of economic complexity. The second is to briefly review the tools and metrics developed in the economic complexity literature that exploit information encoded in the structure of the economy to find new empirical patterns. The final aim is to highlight the insights from economic complexity to improve prediction and political decision-making. Institutions including the World Bank, the European Commission, the World Economic Forum, the OECD, and a range of national and regional organizations have begun to embrace the principles of economic complexity and its analytical framework. We discuss policy implications of this field, in particular the usefulness of building recommendation systems for major public investment decisions in a complex world.

Negotiating exclusion: Regulatory barriers in preferential trade agreements

AbstractTrade negotiations now center on regulations. This paper argues that these negotiations can raise uncertainty over fixed costs. We develop a simple model of exporter competition to show how uncertainty generated by negotiations redistributes profits across firms. We show that regulatory uncertainty reduces competition by deterring entry on the part of less productive firms and shifting market share toward top producers. Empirically, we show that this negotiation‐driven uncertainty can help explain the economically concentrating effects of preferential agreements. Preferential trade agreements combine tariff concessions with regulatory changes that ensure the benefits of the agreement are limited to member states. Using novel data covering firm‐level export activity and public investment decisions in the automotive and automotive parts sectors during NAFTA, we find that negotiation‐driven uncertainty deterred non‐North American producers while benefiting the top American auto manufacturers.

The role of policy analysis and its impact on decision-making in local governments: the case of the Seoul Metropolitan Government

ABSTRACT This paper examines the case of the Seoul Metropolitan Government’s new initiative for an independent pre-feasibility study, which is intended to enhance its capacity for decision-making in public investment. A cost-benefit analysis is optimistic when co-opted external policy analysts perform it. However, an independent research center specializing in feasibility studies significantly reduces this tendency and improves the quality of analyses. Moreover, a pre-feasibility study plays a catalytic role in bringing the policy community to embrace high-quality analytic information during policymaking. Our findings suggest that some allegedly incompetent local governments can make better and more correct public investment decisions through appropriate institutionalization of the policy analysis process.

Differentiating and modeling the installation and the usage of autonomous vehicle technologies: A system dynamics approach for policy impact studies

Existing research that forecasts market penetration of installed connected and autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies is often confused with the traffic composition in roadway networks. Users may override AV mode due to arrival time pressure, facility constraint (e.g., “I will have to make a U-turn a mile away if I do not cross the solid double-yellow lines here”), drug and alcohol influence, pleasure, envy (e.g., “why the front car can surpass that slow truck but I can’t?”), insufficient law enforcement, driving culture, media and public sentiment, etc. Therefore, the installation and the usage of AV technologies should not be instantaneously assumed ignorable in planning and policy studies. This paper is dedicated to clarifying this confusion by demonstrating that ignoring the difference between the installation and the usage of AV technologies might lead to systematic bias in evaluating policy and investment decisions. Through a system dynamics (SD) model, the complex interactions of relevant factors are captured so that the mixed traffic condition influences traffic law enforcement adjustment effort and system investment decisions, which, in turn, influence the AV technology usage share and the system performance. The case study applies to the greater Washington, D.C. area for demonstrating the feasibility and advantages of the proposed model and for studying policy implications. This paper does not attempt to forecast; instead, it proposes a modeling framework for studying the conditions under which differentiating the installation and the usage of AV technologies might be critical in forecasting the traffic composition trend and system performance for public policy and investment decisions.

Rural broadband: Gaps, maps and challenges

This paper examines challenges to evidence-based decision-making in the design and implementation of rural broadband investment programs. Our focus is on Canada, and the apparent need for further intra-rural broadband research and better data and mapping for informing public investment decisions, but similar challenges are evident in the international literature. Based on proprietary telecommunication provider datasets, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunication Commission (CRTC) estimates that broadband services with advertised speeds that meet its basic universal service targets (50 Mbps download and 10 Mbps upload) are available to 87.4 percent of households in Canada. In rural areas however, services that meet CRTC’s speed targets are available to 45.6 percent of households. Moreover, effective speeds and service quality levels that suppliers deliver and users experience tend to fall well below the government’s aspirational targets. In response to demand for better broadband, a variety of initiatives are directing public investment to the deployment of regional and rural broadband networks, which are typically owned and operated by private companies. There remains a serious lack of relevant data and its effective use in creating rural broadband strategies and managing public investment projects. Evidence from the literature suggest that this affects the degree and quality of geo-spatial and econometric analysis that results in a limited empirical basis to allocate scarce public investments, aggregate demand of consumers/communities, and assess the outcomes of rural broadband initiatives ex post. This paper provides a historical overview of rural broadband development in Canada and questions if the body of knowledge to inform public investment initiatives has grown sufficiently to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability. With a regional case from southwestern Ontario, Canada, we discuss the findings of the literature review, characterize the broadband data challenge, and discuss the importance of proprietary provider data cross-referenced with Internet user experience data.

Financial Literacy, Overconfidence, Risk Tolerance and Public Investment Decision of Ende Residents, East Nusa Tenggara Province of Indonesia

The purpose of this study was to explore how financial literacy, risk tolerance, and overconfidence influenced public investment decisions in the Ende Region. This is a quantitative research project. With a total of 80 respondents, the study was conducted in Ende's downtown area, notably Mautapaga, Onekore, Paupire, and Potulando. As part of the initial data gathering process, the respondents were given questionnaires to complete out.The data was assessed using SmartPLS to ensure its validity and reliability, and a hypothesis test was conducted to estimate the impact of each variable on investment decisions and how much three variables affect public investment decisions in Ende. Financial literacy has a 36.9% impact on public investment decisions, overconfidence has a 14.9 percent impact, and risk tolerance or assessment of the risk that will be accepted by investors has a 29.3% impact on public investment decisions.According to the simultaneous test, financial literacy, overconfidence, and risk tolerance all have a 35 percent impact on people's investment decisions, with the remaining 65 percent explained by other factors.

When Scale and Replication Work: Learning from Summer Youth Employment Experiments

Because successful human capital interventions often fail to scale or replicate, public investment decisions require understanding how program size, context, and implementation shape program effects. This paper uses two new randomized controlled trials of summer youth employment programs in Chicago and Philadelphia to demonstrate how multiple experiments can help explain replicability and inform the expansion of promising approaches. Even when these programs grow or change models across contexts, participation consistently reduces criminal justice involvement. It may also decrease the need for child protective services and behavioral health treatment. Experimental variation in program model and local provider generates no detectable heterogeneity, suggesting that effects replicate partly because variability in implementation does not matter. There is, however, individual-level heterogeneity that explains differences in effect magnitudes across populations and informs optimal targeting; youth at higher risk of socially costly outcomes experience larger benefits. Identifying more interventions that combine this pattern of treatment heterogeneity with robust replicability could aid efforts to reduce social inequality efficiently. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Light at the end of the tunnel:The impacts of expected major transport improvements on residential property prices

Properties near public transportation systems are usually sold at a premium owing to the willingness of firms and people to pay for access to workplace and leisure. However, the economic impact of major infrastructure investments remains an empirical question plagued by identification issues. We investigate the economic impacts of a major transportation development project currently under construction in Hong Kong: the Tuen Mun–Chek Lap Kok tunnel, namely the effects on property prices of the expansion of the regional road network in the Greater Bay Area. We identify a significant accessibility premium well before the tunnel is completed. There is also a change in market structure of increased preference for residential property in areas closer to the tunnel, reflected by higher price appreciation. The findings help guide urban planning and public investment decisions, as well as the design and implementation of land value capture policy.

A Quantitative Model Supporting Socially Responsible Public Investment Decisions for Sustainable Tourism

The purpose of this article is to develop a quantitative model that supports policy makers in the tourism sector in making socially responsible investment decisions. In particular, this paper proposes a methodological approach to assess the impact of strategic decisions at the policy level, in the field of tourism, from an economic, environmental and social point of view. The Calabria region, in Italy, has been chosen as a real-world case study. Based on historical data, the study identifies the main levers that influence tourism-related dynamics in Calabria. A quantitative forecasting model to support future investment decisions for sustainable tourism has then been developed. This problem is modeled through a multi-criteria optimization framework. To initialize such a framework, a non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) has been used. The proposed model is a flexible instrument to evaluate public investment policies in the field of tourism from the point of view of sustainability and social responsibility.

The art and science of priority-setting: assessing the value of Public Health England's Prioritization Framework.

ABSTRACTBackgroundFindings are presented from the evaluation of Public Health England’s (PHE) Prioritization Framework (PF) aimed to assist local authority commissioners with their public health investment and disinvestment decisions. The study explored the take up of the PF in three early adopter local authority settings.MethodsSemi-structured interviews (n = 30) across three local authorities supplemented by participant observation of workshops.ResultsParticipants acknowledged that the PF provided a systematic means of guiding priority-setting and one that encouraged transparency over investment and disinvestment decisions. The role performed by PHE and its regional teams in facilitating the process was especially welcomed and considered critical to the adoption process. However, uptake of the PF required a significant investment of time and commitment from public health teams at a time when resources were stretched. The impact of the political environment in the local government was a major factor determining the likely uptake of the PF. Ensuring committed leadership and engagement from senior politicians and officers was regarded as critical to success.ConclusionsThe study assessed the value and impact of PHE’s PF tool in three early adopter local authorities. Further research could explore the value of the tool in aiding investment and disinvestment decisions and its impact on spending.