Provision Of Climate Information Research Articles

Canada and ocean climate adaptation: tracking law and policy responses, charting future directions

This research article provides a law and policy summary of climate change adaptation initiatives in Canada at the ocean-climate nexus. Three levels of governance are examined (national, provincial, and Indigenous) with a focus on the Atlantic region. The research method was the review of relevant and newly amended laws, regulations and policy statements, and related commentaries. The roles of the federal government are first described with key developments including the launch of a Climate Adaptation Platform in 2012 to share adaptation experiences and information and release of a National Adaptation Strategy and accompanying Adaptation Action Plan in November 2022. Federal adaptation efforts in the areas of fisheries, aquaculture and shipping are also reviewed along with progress in establishing marine protected areas (MPAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures. Provincial adaptation initiatives are next summarized with a focus on the four Atlantic provinces. Those provinces have established a regional hub, CLIMAtlantic, to provide climate information and advance climate-related research and training. Each province has developed a climate action plan which includes climate adaptation priorities. Indigenous-led climate engagement and adaptation initiatives are finally described including the publication in 2019 of a National Inuit Climate Change Strategy, regional initiatives of the Atlantic Policy Congress of First Nations Chiefs Secretariat, and the development of climate adaptation plans by select First Nation communities in the Atlantic region. The paper concludes by discussing future law and policy directions to make Canada more “climate ready.” Adoption of climate adaptation strategies for governmental departments and agencies with ocean and coastal responsibilities should be a priority. Incorporating climate change adaptation responsibilities through legislative and regulatory changes also needs to be considered, for example, by amending Canada’s Oceans Act to recognize the role of oceans in climate adaptations and mitigation, to authorize the designation of MPAs as climate refuges and to require adaptive and dynamic MPA management plans through strict monitoring and timely review provisions. Indigenous peoples must be effectively included in all climate adaptation discussions and planning.

Extreme indices of temperature and precipitation in South America: trends and intercomparison of regional climate models

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide climate information required for evaluating vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation at finer scales than their global driving models. As they explicitly resolve the basic conservation and state equations, they solve physics with more detail, conserving teleconnection of larger scales provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs). In South America (SA), the regional simulations have been historically evaluated principally on climatological aspects, but the representativeness of extremes still needs a more profound assessment. This study aims to analyze three RCMs (RegCM4-7, REMO2015, and Eta) driven by different GCMs in SA, focusing on their capacity to reproduce extreme historical indices of daily precipitation and temperature. The indices of maximum consecutive 5 days precipitation (Rx5day), Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), daily maximum and minimum annual temperature (TXx and TNn, respectively) were evaluated regarding the historical spatio-temporal variability and trends. Furthermore, their projections for the 2071–2099 period, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, were analyzed. The historical behavior of RCMs (1981–2005) was compared with two gridded products: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and agrometeorological indicators derived from the fifth generation of global reanalysis produced by the ECMWF (AgERA5), previously compared with records from meteorological stations to evaluate them. The results show that the highest differences within the gridded products and stations were observed in the regions with more scarce surface stations (North and West of SA) and with complex topography (The Andes Cordillera), being more pronounced in the precipitation-based indices. We found that RCMs generally show more agreement in the spatial variability than in the inter-annual variability for all the indices and SA regions. When analyzing the observed trends, all models better reproduced the long-term variability of extreme temperature indices than those of rainfall. More disagreement was observed for Rx5day and CDD indices trends, including substantial spatial heterogeneities in both magnitude and sign of tendency. Climate change projections exhibited significant agreement to warmer conditions in TXx and TNn, but precipitation signals differed between RCMs and the driving GCM within each regional model. Maximum dry spells are expected to increase in almost all SA regions, whereas the climate change signals in extreme precipitation events are more consistent over southeastern SA (northern and southwestern SA), with positive (negative) changes by the end of the century.

Disclosing Strategy in Communicating Uncertainty: Case of Climatology Station Climate Information Dissemination in Lombok Island

Certainty of climate information is essential for farmers in developing farming decisions but, climate forecasts produced by Climatology Station contain 30 per cent uncertainty. The fact that climatology station has carried out climate information dissemination to farmers in Lombok. However, many farmers experienced harvesting and planting failure due to climatic uncertainty. The objectives of this research are to describe the communication strategy implemented by the Kediri Climatology Station in communicating climate information to farmers on Lombok Island and to identify obstacles experienced in disseminating climate information. This research was conducted at the Kediri Climatology Station and on the island of Lombok using a descriptive method. Data were collected through in-depth interviews. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive qualitative analysis. The results show that the strategies implemented by the Kediri Climatology Station were strategies to increase the station's credibility through the improvement of data collection technique and analysis to minimize uncertainty, compiling and packaging messages so that farmers easily understand them, conducting direct dissemination through climate field school (SLI) and indirect using media, trying to understand the social and economic conditions of the communicants as well as utilization of feedback. However, there are obstacles faced by the Kediri Climatology Station in providing climate information namely: many extension agents are reluctant to convey climate information to farmers, climate change that affects forecast accuracy, difficulty convincing the public, and lack of funds to conduct Climate Field School, limited personnel, and language barriers.

Showcasing MESMER-X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models.

Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties such as correlations in space and time. We test different emulator configurations and find that driving the emulations with global mean surface temperature offers an optimal compromise between model complexity and performance. We show that the emulations can mimic the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying climate model simulations and are able to reproduce their natural variability. The general design and the good performance for annual maximum temperatures suggest that the proposed methodology can be applied to other climate extremes.

Distribution and spatio-temporal variation of temperature and precipitation in the Sierra de Otontepec Ecological Reserve, Veracruz, Mexico through GIS modelling

Sierra de Otontepec Ecological Reserve is an isolated mountain in the Coastal Plain of Gulf of Mexico with great scientific importance. However, it lacks climatological information to support the studies of the ecosystems that have been carried out in recent years. Through GIS modelling its climatology was characterized, and climate variability scenarios were created for the period 1981-2010. From temperature and precipitation data recorded in situ, vertical gradients of both variables were obtained in relation to the orography of the zone. The records were correlated with data from nearby weather stations so that by using a DEM it was possible to obtain raster layers with a resolution of 15 m per pixel for temperature, in the summer and winter seasons; and for precipitation, in the rainy and dry seasons; the annual value was also calculated for both variables. The climatic variability detected in the zone indicates a gradual increase in air temperature over time and a spatial variation in the distribution of precipitation. The spatial resolution of the modelling is precisely adjusted to the relief of the mountain, allowing the flora and fauna elements found within each pixel to be analysed with a good level of detail. This work represents the most viable and effective alternative to estimate temperature and precipitation values in mountain systems lacking climatological stations; demonstrating that beyond providing climate information, which is increasingly necessary for ecosystems, it is possible to model their spatio-temporal dynamics to better understand the complex climate variability of our days.

Meeting the Drought Information Needs of Midwest Perennial Specialty Crop Producers

Abstract Agricultural production in the U.S. Midwest is vulnerable to drought, and specialty crop producers are an underserved audience for monitoring information and decision-support tools. We investigate the decision-making needs of apple, grape, and cranberry growers using a participatory process to develop crop-specific decision calendars. The process highlights growers’ decisions and information needs during the winter dormant, growing, harvest, and postharvest seasons. Apple, grape, and cranberry growers tend to be concerned with the effects of short-term drought on current crop quality and quantity, while also considering the long-term drought effect on the health of perennial plants and future years’ production. We find gaps in drought information particularly for tactical and strategic decision-making. We describe the use of decision calendars to identify points of entry for existing drought monitoring resources and tools, and to highlight where additional research and tool development is needed. Significance Statement While drought causes agricultural losses in the U.S. Midwest, more is known about the impacts and decision-support needs of commodity row crop growers in the region than those of perennial specialty crop growers. We find opportunities for climate information providers to tailor drought information delivery to perennial fruit growers according to the season, the parameters that are relevant to their decisions, and the timeframe of information needed for operational, tactical, and strategic decision-making.

The Journalism in Climate Change Websites: Their Distinct Forms of Specialism, Content, and Role Perceptions

ABSTRACT Survey results from news consumers around the world suggest that specialist or niche websites covering climate change are now one of the most important sources of climate information. However, there is very little detailed scholarship about these sites. We carried out semi-structured interviews with senior representatives of 14 online information sites, based in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries, which prioritize the provision of climate information following journalistic values. Through qualitative analysis of the interviews, we show how the sites carve out their niche authority and distinctive nature by emphasizing (to different degrees) their scientific expertise, relevance for policy communication, and their complementary contribution to the work of mainstream journalism. They offer a multiplicity of specialized content, broadly divided into certain, often discrete, aspects of climate change. The self-declared role perceptions of the interviewees suggest that traditional, professional journalistic values eschewing overt advocacy still predominate, although some of the practices, norms and priorities associated with these values have shifted, particularly in their roles as effective and authoritative mediators of climate science. At the theoretical level, the findings highlight the need to study “the niche” at the intersection of broader dimensions of authority, power and knowledge in changing media ecologies.

Societal local and regional resiliency spurred by contextualized climate services: The role of culture in co-production

Climate information plays a foundational role in achieving a green recovery and climate neutrality in Europe, and a central one for a climate resilient Europe. This role can materialize if climate information is delivered appropriately and used effectively. Climate services, understood as the provision of climate information for use in decision making, have been created to provide climate information addressing these aspects. The utility of climate services is determined by the level of user engagement and co-design, employed during their development, while resource limitations for any of these aspects constrain their full potential. Co-design together with users is increasingly seen as a necessary good practice approach to provide efficient services that bring together supply and demand. In this paper, we focus on how climate services can contribute to climate neutrality by considering the cultural dimension of the users and their regions for whom specific climate services are co-designed. We specifically address dimensions of vulnerability and resilience to changing climatic conditions in five case studies worldwide while analysing the influence of culture on risk coping and enabling mechanism of key stakeholders and their needs for specific climate services in these regions. We found that user needs, desires and actions hinge on value prepositions formed by specific socio-cultural, climatic, spatial and bio-ecological contexts. Hence, when co-designing climate services, it is vital to understand users’ needs, based on their values and experiences with climate and weather and to seek ways to influence, alter and change them.

Toward usable predictive climate information at decadal timescales

Toward usable predictive climate information at decadal timescales

Assessing Smallholder Farmers’ Perception on Climate Variability in Relation to Climatological Evidence: A Case Study of Benguene in the Sudanian Zone of Mali

Sudanian zone is one of the regions in West Africa most confronted with high climate variability, challenging agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods. Despite multiple research efforts devoted to exploring how farmers in this region perceive climate variability and how perceptions relate to adaptive responses, much remains to be done. This study examined farmers’ perception of climate variability compared with scientific evidence in the terroir of Benguene, between 1983 and 2018. Data was collected from twenty-nine (29) farmland heads (representing 49% of the total farmland heads in the village) through a survey conducted in October 2019. Monthly temperature data from ground measurement and daily rainfall data extracted from the gridded African Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC-2) time series was used. Descriptive statistic was used to analyse survey data. Climate data analysis included Mann Kendall trend analysis and computation of growing season parameters (Onset, Duration and Cessation) and its trend. In the end, a conformity index was used to compare farmers’ perceptions to climatological evidence. Conformity graph showed that apart from temperature, the farmers have low, to a weak perception of the other variables used to assess their perception. Results showed that many smallholder farmers have observed a rise in temperature (90%), delay onset (93%) and early cessation (93%) of rainfall. The analysis of the climate data showed high variability in the climate during the study period as observed in the increasing trends in temperature (p-value of 0.0007) and in the rainfall (p-value of 0.0001). Concerning the season parameters, the results show increasingly early-onset (June 1st ± 22 days) increasingly late cessation (October 09th ± 14 days) and consequently a long duration of the rainy season (130 ± 27 days). Conversely, farmers thought the opposite. These results imply the urgent need to increase smallholder farmers awareness of climate variability and change by providing climate information for better adaptation

Scalar Mismatches and Underlying Factors for Underutilization of Climate Information: Perspectives From Farmers and Ranchers

Growing demand for water resources coupled with climate-driven water scarcity and variability present critical challenges to agriculture in the Western US. Despite extensive resources allocated to downscaling climate projections and advances in understanding past, current, and future climatic conditions, climate information is underutilized in decisions made by agricultural producers. Climate information providers need to understand why this information is underutilized and what would better meet the needs of producers. To better understand how agricultural producers perceive and utilize climate information, we conducted five focus groups with farmers and ranchers across Montana. Focus groups revealed that there are fundamental scalar issues (spatial and temporal) that make climate information challenging for producers to use. While climate information is typically produced at regional, national, or global spatial scales and at a seasonal and mid- to end-of-century temporal scales, producers indicated that decision-making takes place at multiple intermediate and small temporal and spatial scales. In addition, producers described other drivers of decision-making that have little to do with climate information itself, but rather aspects of source credibility, past experience, trust in information, and the politics of climate change. Through engaging directly with end-users, climate information providers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales that align with different types of agricultural producers and decisions, as well as the limitations of information provision given the complexity of the decision context. Increased engagement between climate information providers and end-users can also address the important tradeoffs that exist between scale and uncertainty.

Creative farmers and climate service politics in Indonesian rice production

ABSTRACT Providing climate information services to farmers is expected to optimise agricultural outputs amidst increasing climate uncertainty. Consequently, Indonesian governmental and extra-governmental actors provide climate services with the goal of improving productivity and increasing national food security. Existing research about climate-smart agriculture generally, and climate services in particular, presents these projects as largely technical or anti-political endeavours. Here, we analyse how rice farmers, collectively and individually, engage with climate services. We find that farmers ‘play’ with and between the climate service projects, manipulating them in order to subsidise their livelihoods and assert their individual and collective political power across scales.

Collaboration Relations in Climate Information Production and Dissemination to Subsistence Farmers in Namibia

Although climate information can aid farmers’ capacity to adapt to climate change, its accessibility and adoption by subsistence farmers hinge on the collaboration between farmers and climate information providers. This paper examines collaborations among actors in the process of climate information production and dissemination in the Namibian agricultural sector. The aim is to investigate the extent to which subsistence farmers are integrated into the collaboration process and the impact of the collaboration on the nature and accessibility of disseminated information. Key informant interviews and a questionnaire survey were used for data collection. Using network analysis, we estimated the networks’ density, clustering coefficient, and degree centrality. The study found that both the climate information production and dissemination networks have a high overall clustering coefficient (78% and 77%, respectively) suggesting a high rate of collaboration among the actors in the networks. However, the frequency of interactions between the actors in both the information production and dissemination networks and subsistence farmers remains very low. Nearly all surveyed farmers reported that they meet with information providers only once in a year. The effect of this poor interaction is reflected in the poor occurrence of feedback learning, which is needed to optimize channels of information dissemination to subsistence farmers and enhance the robustness of disseminated information. We recommend innovative communication means via mobile phone, promotion of peer-to-peer learning, flexible collaboration relations with more space for feedback from the users of climate information, and more attention to long-term forecasts and their implications for adaptive actions.

Predictors of access to and willingness to pay for climate information services in north-eastern Ghana: A gendered perspective

Access to useful climate information is critical for adaptation needs of African smallholder farmers, yet empirical studies documenting the socioeconomic, environmental and household predictors of access to and willingness to pay for climate information services from a gendered perspective have been limited to date. This paper addresses this research need by identifying the predictors of access to and willingness to pay for climate information by smallholder farmers in north-eastern Ghana, a “vulnerability hotspot” where slight changes in rainfall often result in considerable yield losses. The study uses data collected from 193 household surveys in 2 communities across 2 districts in the Upper East region of Ghana. The logit regression was performed based on a disaggregated procedure. Our findings suggest that the majority of smallholder farmers were not willing to pay for the cost of receiving climate information. Results show that only 50% (n = 121) of the male farmers compared with just 31% (n = 72) of female farmers were willing to pay for climate information. The results from the marginal analysis suggest that access to climate information is influenced by both household and environmental factors. The marginal effects logistic regression shows statistically significant differences in the predictors of access and willingness to pay for climate information based on gender. Findings highlight that the provision of climate information should be designed and tailored to meet the needs of smallholder farmers with different socioeconomic backgrounds to enable farmers manage climate risks and build adaptive capacity. The Ghana Meteorological Agency needs to be supported through capacity building on communication to provide targeted climate information for farmers in this climate “vulnerability hotspot”.

Assessing future scenarios of water availability using cmpi5 high resolution climate models – case study of the alto tietê basin

Global climate change and extreme climate variability directly affect the hydrological cycle and rainfall variability, which highlights the importance of studying climatic conditions as a support for water resource management in regions with low water availability, such as the Upper Tietê River Basin (Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Tietê – BHAT). This study aims to present a diagnosis for BHAT water availability conditions in future climate scenarios, based on the high-resolution models CMCC-CM, MIROC4h, ETA-MIROC5, and ETAHADGEM2- ES, for the time slices 2020-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099, in order to provide climate information for BHAT’s management. The main results showed a clear upward trend in the average annual temperatures. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the average annual increase was 0.5°C from 2006 to 2099. Precipitation showed high interannual variability without a specific defined trend. The average annual flow showed a slight positive trend in the period 2006–2099. However, it also presented a decrease in the monthly average flow in the wet period (13%) and an increase in the dry period (9.7%), compared to the historical data simulated for the time slice 2020–2040 of the RCP8.5 scenario. However, the annual increase in BHAT water availability at future scenarios should not be sufficient to meet the growing demand for water in the region. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate water availability based on other high-resolution climate models, in order to evaluate uncertainties, and in other regions with different supply systems that provide water to the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, identifying alternative water supply sources.

Chinese water managers' long-term climate information needs

Decision-makers can use climate information to adapt to the risks of climate variability and change. The adequate provision of climate information is critical for adaptation planning in climate-sensitive sectors. However, for climate products to be appropriately tailored for these sectors, it is necessary to identify and understand users' specific information needs. The aim of this research was to assess the use of and need for climate information by water managers in China, with a focus on long-term climate information in the Yellow and Yangtze River basins. Data was collected from regional water managers, and climate information providers using a workshop (n = 15), and semi-structured interviews (n = 27). It was found that water manages in China required climate data with different timescales and variables. The findings show that water managers receive historical, weather and seasonal forecasts data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) mainly because there is a close dialogue between data providers and users in terms of historical, weather, and seasonal climate data that does not exist with regard to climate change projections. The use of external sources of climate change projections by users in China allows critical evaluation of climate services provided by the CMA; from that, an understanding of the limitations of current services such as limited variables and timescales was established.

Enhancing adaptive capacity to manage climate risk in agriculture through community-led climate information centres

ABSTRACT Using participatory action research methods, we co-developed climate risk management approaches with participating farmers as part of a large project in India on climate adaptation to climate change in Asia (ACCA). The key components of this work involved village level meteorological data recording and reporting, formation and development of farmer climate clubs, on-farm participatory research testing a range of sowing and irrigation practices in response to weather patterns, and preparation and dissemination of agro-meteorological advisories. This research catalysed the development of the CLimate Information Centre concept (CLIC), further evolving into the development of an ICT platform of software and hardware that integrated the ACCA project results, biweekly agro-meteorological advisory bulletins and static agronomy information. An evaluation of the CLICs was undertaken based on a survey of 330 farmers in eight CLICs villages in Telangana state in southern India. The evaluation considered aspects such as the frequency of visits to CLICs, farmer perceptions on usefulness of information, any changes in knowledge and practice due to CLICs visits, and satisfaction with the CLICs as a source of information. On average 80 percent of the surveyed farmers had visited CLICs during the period. Farmers highlighted the important contribution of the agronomy videos they watched, access to agro-meteorological bulletins, information on pests, and weather forecast information. These contributed to various types of benefits they derived including an average cost savings of US$ 4 – 64 per hectare/year. While the current version of CLICs has shown promise and relevance for small holders, they need to be further developed into small business centres that function as a knowledge and provision hub for various agriculture inputs and providing climate information as an important service. This will serve as a self-sustaining financial model for CLICs rather than climate information as the only source of information service that is currently the case.

Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Indicators of Rain: Evidence from Rwenzori Region, Western Uganda

AbstractThis study investigated the abiotic and biotic environmental indicators used among pastoralists and arable farmers to predict the onset and cessation of rain as well as to make short-term and seasonal forecasts in the Rwenzori region of Western Uganda. We used a mixed-methods approach that included surveys of 907 households, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The results indicate that resident birds such as white-browed coucals and turacos and migrant birds such as eagles and swallows were important indicators of the onset of rains. Butterflies were an important indicator for the cessation of rains, and red ants were an indicator for the onset of rains. Among the abiotic indicators, winds, clouds, earthquakes, and cloud formation on Mount Rwenzori were important indicators. Behavior of cattle at the onset of rains was important among the pastoralists, and flowering of coffee plants was important among the arable farmers. The behavior of the biotic indicators was driven by the availability of food, water, or other necessities. An attempt to explain the phenology underlying the behavior of biotic indicators and the meteorological science underlying some of the abiotic indicators is made. Although biotic environmental indicators are rudimentary and their accuracy is influenced by external factors such as climate change, they provide climate information within the locality of the farmers. Our results suggest that the indicators used in indigenous forecasting could be incorporated in national meteorological systems in a bid to improve the accuracy of rainfall forecasts and their use among farmers and pastoralists in rural Africa.

Facing climate injustices: Community trust-building for climate services through arts and sciences narrative co-production

The goal of this paper is to analyze how and with what results place-based climate service co-production may be enacted within a community for whom climate change is not a locally salient concern. Aiming to initiate a climate-centered dialogue, a hybrid team of scientists and artists collected local narratives within the Kerourien neighbourhood, in the city of Brest in Brittany, France. Kerourien is a place known for its stigmatizing crime, poverty, marginalization and state of disrepair. Social work is higher on the agenda than climate action. The team thus acknowledged that local narratives might not make much mention of climate change, and recognized part of the work might be to shift awareness to the actual or potential, current or future, connections between everyday non-climate concerns and climate issues. Such a shift called for a practical intervention, centered on local culture.The narrative collection process was dovetailed with preparing the neighbourhood’s 50th anniversary celebration and establishing a series of art performances to celebrate the neighbourhood and its residents. Non-climate and quasi-climate stories were collected, documented, and turned into art forms. The elements of climate service co-production in this process are twofold. First, they point to the ways in which non-climate change related local concerns may be mapped out in relation to climate change adaptation, showing how non-climate change concerns call for climate information. Secondly, they show how the co-production of climate services may go beyond the provision of climate information by generating procedural benefits such as local empowerment – thus generating capacities that may be mobilized to face climate change. We conclude by stressing that “place-based climate service co-production for action” may require questioning the nature of the “services” rendered, questioning the nature of “place,” and questioning what “action” entails. We offer leads for addressing these questions in ways that help realise empowerment and greater social justice.

Applying Climate Services to Transformative Adaptation in Agriculture

As climate change increasingly affects agriculture around the world, reliable, timely, and targeted information about weather and climate conditions is becoming an ever more urgent requirement for adaptation decision-making. This paper considers how transformative adaptation – long-term, systemic change to fundamental aspects of systems in response to or anticipation of severe climate change impacts - could be accelerated by enhancing climate services and how they are applied. The paper explores how components of climate services – defined as systems to develop and provide climate information to meet users’ needs - could be enhanced for building and implementing transformative pathways. It looks at current challenges and opportunities in climate service design and suggests how different types of information and data can be used to better integrate climate services into adaptation and development plans for systemic change. The paper concludes by providing recommendations for researchers, policymakers, and adaptation funding entities.