Provincial-level Analysis Research Articles

Provincial-level analysis of electrification feasibility and climate policy interactions

Improving electrification feasibility is essential for reducing emissions from non-electric energy sources, thereby enhancing air quality and public health. Concurrently, climate mitigation actions, such as carbon pricing policies, have significant potential to alleviate increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and other co-emitted air pollutants. However, the interactions between climate policy and the improvement of electrification feasibility at the provincial level remain unclear, collectively impacting the net-zero transition of energy-intensive sectors. Here we combine a technologically rich economic-energy-environment model with air quality modeling across China to examine the health, climate, and economic implications of large-scale upgrades in electrification feasibility and climate policies from 2017 to 2030. The results indicate that advancing electrification feasibility, coupled with adopting carbon pricing policies, is likely to facilitate a transition towards electricity-dominant energy systems. Improved electrification feasibility is projected to yield a 7–25% increase in nationwide climate benefits and a 5–14% increase in health benefits by 2030. These incremental benefits, coupled with reduced economic costs, result in a 22–68% increase in net benefits. However, regionally, improvements in electrification feasibility will lead to heightened power demand and unintended emissions from electric energy production in certain provinces (e.g., Nei Mongol) due to the coal-dominated power system. Additionally, in major coal-producing provinces like Shanxi and Shaanxi, enhanced electrification feasibility exacerbates the negative economic impacts of climate policies. This study provides quantitative insights into how improving electrification feasibility reshapes energy evolution and the benefit-cost profile of climate policy at the provincial level. The findings underscore the necessity of a well-designed compensation scheme between affected and unaffected provinces and coordinated emission mitigation across the power and other end-use sectors.

Retraction Note: How do environmental regulations affect carbon emission and energy efficiency patterns? A provincial-level analysis of Chinese energy-intensive industries.

Retraction Note: How do environmental regulations affect carbon emission and energy efficiency patterns? A provincial-level analysis of Chinese energy-intensive industries.

Hearing loss prevalence and burden of disease in China: Findings from provincial-level analysis.

Without timely and effective rehabilitation, hearing loss may profoundly affect human life quality. China has a large population of hearing-impaired individuals, which imposes a heavy health burden on society. Moreover, this population is projected to increase rapidly owing to China's aging society. We used data from a population-representative epidemiological investigation of hearing loss and ear diseases in four Chinese provinces. We estimated the national prevalence using multiple linear regression of the age-group proportions and prevalence in 31 provinces with clustering analysis. We used years lived with disability (YLDs) to analyze the disease burden and forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss by 2060 in China. An estimated 115 million people had moderate-to-complete hearing loss in 2015 across the 31 provinces of China (8.4% of 1.37 billion people). Of these, 85.7% were older than age 50years (99 million people) and 2.4% were younger than 20years old (2.8 million people). Of all YLDs attributable to hearing loss, 68.9% were attributable to moderate-to-complete cases. By 2060, a projected 242 million people in China will have moderate-to-complete hearing loss, a 110.0% increase from 2015. The hearing loss prevalence in China is high. Population aging and socioeconomic factors substantially affect the prevalence and severity of hearing loss and the disease burden. The prevalence and severity of hearing loss are unevenly distributed across different provinces. Future public health policies should take these trends and regional variations into account.

Does Fiscal Decentralization Reduce Poverty? An insight from provincial level analysis in Pakistan

The present study has been designed to check the effect of fiscal decentralization (FD) on the poverty levels in Pakistan. Three measures of FD, namely intergovernmental transfers, provincial government revenues, and expenditure, are used in this study. Furthermore, the effect of FD is checked on the poverty levels separately in four provinces of Pakistan. Poverty levels are measured with the help of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and the percentage of poor households with a value under 35 according to the International Wealth Index (IWI). This study has used panel data from 1990 to 2020 for the model in which poverty is measured through IWI value. Data from 2004 to 2020 has been used for the model in which poverty is measured through MPI. Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) has been used to obtain the regression results by avoiding the problem of serial correlation and heteroscedasticity. The study's results highlighted that two measures, namely intergovernmental transfers and provincial government expenditures, have a nonlinear relationship with poverty. An increase in intergovernmental transfers and provincial government expenditures reduces poverty at a decreasing rate at first. Then, an increase in both variables results in the form of a higher level of poverty. Moreover, revenue decentralization at the provincial level increases poverty initially and reduces poverty after a critical point.

Regional Differences and Influencing Factors of Green Innovation Efficiency in China’s 285 Cities

Green innovation is an important concept of high-quality development to achieve resource conservation and ecological protection. To explore whether there is an imbalance in the development of green innovation in China and find the reasons for this phenomenon, it is of vital importance to investigate the regional differences of green innovation efficiency (GIE) and its influencing factors. Many scholars have studied the performance of green innovation from the efficiency perspective but concentrated on provincial-level analysis and lacked heterogeneity analysis of the influencing factors. To fill this gap, this study explores the regional differences of GIE of 285 prefecture-level and above cities in China during the period 2003–2019, and then employs the spatial error model (SEM) to explore the heterogeneity of influencing factors. The results show that: (1) The GIE in China and its three regions underwent an overall increasing process, revealing regional heterogeneity, with most efficient cities agglomerated in the Eastern region. (2) The spatial difference of GIE in China was narrowing, and the within-region Gini coefficient in the three regions presented a similar trend. Between-region difference contributed the largest to the regional differences, especially between the Central and Western regions. The kernel density estimation results showed that GIE presents significant spatial characteristic of polarization. (3) The SEM model analysis indicated that economic development, government motivation, industrial structure, financial support, and population scale affected GIE profoundly in China, and there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the impact of each influencing factor. Western cities were mainly driven by governmental support in green innovation, while Eastern and Central cities were driven by economic development and improved industrial structure.

What is the role of green ICT innovation in lowering carbon emissions in China? A provincial-level analysis

Green information and communication technology (ICT) is key to attaining carbon neutrality and a low-carbon economy. Applying panel data of 30 provinces in China, this study explores the internal mechanism and heterogeneous effect of green ICT innovation at lowering carbon emissions (CE) in China. The results disclose the following. Green ICT innovation significantly reduces the nation's provincial carbon emission, and the results remain valid after endogenous treatment and robustness test. Furthermore, green ICT innovation and CE do not exhibit a U-shape relationship, indicating the absence of a rebound effect. Green ICT innovation has an energy-saving effect and a productivity effect, demonstrating that energy intensity and green total factor productivity play an intermediary role. A better ICT development foundation strengthens green ICT innovation's carbon reduction effect. Besides, the CE reduction effect has three-dimensional heterogeneity depending on different economic development levels, type of green ICT innovation, and different carbon emissions regions. Finally, based on these results, the paper offers policy implications.

Factors associated with Childhood Anthropometric Measurements in Nepal: A Provincial-Level Analysis Based on NDHS Data 2016

The study assesses the prevalence of and factors affecting the anthropometric measurements i.e. stunting-WAZ, wasting-WHZ and underweight-WAZ each below -2 SD from the median of the reference population, among children below 5 years of age group in newly structured seven Provinces of Nepal by different background characteristics using Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) Data, 2016. Anthropometric indicators are far worse in Madhesh and Karnali provinces than the national average. The highest share of stunted children is in Karnali Province whose size at birth is very small (70.0%) against the national average of 36 percent. Children in the poorest quintile and born from illiterate mothers of Madhesh Province and Karnali Province have highly suffered from stunting. Data shows that children born to illiterate mothers are highly wasted in Madhesh Province (23.8%). Underweight increased with an increase in the age of the children; increases with birth order in all Provinces. Except for Gandaki Province, underweight is more common in rural areas than in urban areas. The prevalence of underweight children is the highest in the poorest quintile of Madhesh Province i. e. 50 percent as compared to the national average of 27 percent. High birth order has significantly contributed to worsening childhood nutrition. The statistical test infers that childhood stunting and underweight are in aggregate strongly related to all variables except sex while wasting is strongly associated with only children’s age and their mother’s education. The author suggests applying provincial policies and programs based on the findings to tackle their poor anthropometric indicators.

Long-Term Care Resident Health and Quality of Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Synthesis Analysis of Canadian Institute for Health Information Data Tables.

Long-term care (LTC) homes ("nursing homes") were challenged during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada. The objective of this study was to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on resident admission and discharge rates, resident health attributes, treatments, and quality of care. Synthesis analysis of "Quick Stats" standardized data table reports published yearly by the Canadian Institute for Health Information. These reports are a pan-Canadian scorecard of LTC services rendered, resident health characteristics, and quality indicator performance. LTC home residents in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario, Canada that were assessed with the interRAI Minimum Data Set 2.0 comprehensive health assessment in fiscal years 2018/2019, 2019/2020 (pre-pandemic period), and 2020/2021 (pandemic period). Risk ratio statistics were calculated to compare admission and discharge rates, validated interRAI clinical summary scale scores, medication, therapy and treatment provision, and seventeen risk-adjusted quality indicator rates from the pandemic period relative to prior fiscal years. Risk of dying in the LTC home was greater in all provinces (risk ratio [RR] range 1.06-1.18) during the pandemic. Quality of care worsened substantially on 6 of 17 quality indicators in British Columbia and Ontario, and 2 quality indicators in Manitoba and Alberta. The only quality indicator where performance worsened during the pandemic in all provinces was the percentage of residents that received antipsychotic medications without a diagnosis of psychosis (RR range 1.01-1.09). The COVID-19 pandemic has unveiled numerous areas to strengthen LTC and ensure that resident's physical, social, and psychological needs are addressed during public health emergencies. Except an increase in potentially inappropriate antipsychotic use, this provincial-level analysis indicates that most aspects of resident care were maintained during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Food waste and its embedded resources loss: A provincial level analysis of China

Food waste is of great concern because it causes severe environmental pollution during disposal and contains many resources that should be well managed. Food waste quantification could clarify the resource value of wasted food and thus help to improve resource utilization efficiency, reduce water eutrophication potential, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By considering household food waste, out-of-home food waste, and food delivery waste in rural and urban regions, this paper quantifies the nitrogen, phosphorus, water, and carbon footprint embedded in China's food waste at the provincial level. The results indicate that food waste in China was 56.75 Mt. in 2018. Those wasted food cause 0.54 Mt. loss of phosphorus (5.12% of the phosphorus fertilizer consumption), 3.58 Mt. loss of nitrogen (10.43% of the nitrogen fertilizer consumption), and 120.25 billion tons loss of water (3.06 times of the storage capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir). If ignoring the greenhouse gas emissions caused by land-use change, the carbon footprint caused by wasted food is 168.07 Mt. CO2eq, accounting for 1.44% of China's total GHG emission. Principal component analysis indicates that the per capita disposable income, urbanization rate, and personal consumption expenditure are critical factors for food waste volume variation in different provinces. Considering China's significant role in the global resource cycling, improving nutrient/resource utilization efficiency along the food supply chain, minimizing food waste volume, and developing economic-effective processes for food waste reuse and recycling are recommended to close the imbalanced resource cycle during the current food waste management.

Geophysical and Societal Dimensions of Floods in Manitoba, Canada: A Social Vulnerability Assessment of the Rural Municipality of St. Andrews

Being strongly influenced by the landscape of the Red River Valley, geophysical and a variety of sociodemographic and economic factors, the characteristics of floods are complex in the Province of Manitoba, Canada, which causes substantial loss and damage to lives and properties. The primary objectives of this study are two-fold: (i) to identify the geophysical and human-induced conditions of floods, and examine the trend in flood loss and damage in the Province of Manitoba, Canada; and (ii) to analyze the social vulnerability perspectives of floods in the Rural Municipality of St. Andrews, as a local community case study. Using the Delphi technique, primary data were procured from the field for community-level vulnerability analysis. Secondary data for a provincial-level analysis were collected from various public domains, including governmental departments and other non-government sources. The results reveal that a nested set of geophysical and societal factors determine the degree of vulnerability of individual community members. In Manitoba, it was found that socioeconomic damages caused by floods have increased considerably over time despite undertaking costly structural flood mitigation measures. We conclude that minimization of flood damages requires complementing structural measures with knowledge-sharing, collaboration among pertinent institutions, and the adoption of an interactive flood management system approach.

Disparities in driving forces behind energy-related black carbon emission changes across China's provinces

Black carbon (BC) is one of the most important factors affecting the uncertainty of global climate change, as well as affecting human health by absorbing harmful substances in the environment. Understanding how human activities drive BC emissions can help formulate effective emission reduction policies. However, regional differences in social and economic activities determine the factors driving BC emission change in different regions/provinces, leading to the non-applicability of national-level emission reduction policies among the provinces. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a provincial-level analysis to shape refined policies for BC emission reduction. Here, we subdivided China's total BC emissions into 30 provinces based on previous work and used the multi-regional input-output model and complete average decomposition analysis to explore how BC emission intensity, intermediate inputs structural adjustment, local final demand, inter-provincial trade, and international exports drive BC emissions during 2007–2017. The results showed that BC emission intensity was an important emission reduction factor for all provinces in China. As for the effect of intermediate inputs structural adjustment, it had a negative effect during 2007–2012. However, during 2012–2017, as the tertiary industry had become the biggest factor in promoting economic development, the impact of the intermediate input structure on BC emissions had become a positive contribution, which showed that current industrial structure adjustment was not conducive to BC emissions reduction. Local final demand, inter-provincial trade, and international exports were the main factors causing the increase in BC emissions in each province as well. Southwestern regions and heavy industrial provinces emitted additional high BC emissions due to the huge final demand in the Eastern coastal regions. More targeted policies can be formulated by determining BC emission reduction responsibilities based on their driving factors at the provincial and sectoral levels and the development of emission reduction measures for each province.

Relieving the water-energy nexus pressure through whole supply chain management: Evidence from the provincial-level analysis in China

Water-energy nexus (WEN) is an international hot-spot issue, while more attentions have been paid to the direct nexus effect resulting from production activities. In this context, this study firstly used the multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis to offer a full spectrum of water and energy usage throughout the whole supply chain in China, considering production-based perspective and betweenness-based and consumption-based perspectives. And then the principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to further target the critical WEN sectors in Chinese's 30 provinces. The results show that: (1) For most of these provinces, the direct WEN pressure caused by production activities can be found in several traditional resource-intensive sectors, especially in S22 (Production and supply of electric power and steam) and S14 (Smelting and pressing of metals). (2) The most critical transmission sectors with WEN pressure was S12 (Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products), followed by S14 in most of these province. S22 was the key transmission center in several provinces, and S7 (Manufacture of textile) in Fujian and Hubei and S10 (Papermaking and printing) in Zhejiang and Hainan should also be highly-concerned. (3) For all of these provinces, the indirect WEN pressure driven by final consumption appeared in S24 (Construction industry). In addition, S16 (Manufacture of general and special-purpose machinery) and S17 (Manufacture of Transport equipment) were the other two key consumption-based WEN sectors in some provinces. Overall, the WEN pressures in Jiangsu were relatively great in China, and S12 in Hubei was the only sector facing great WEN pressure from all three perspectives. Our results can draw implications for regional sustainable development in China.

How do environmental regulations affect carbon emission and energy efficiency patterns? A provincial-level analysis of Chinese energy-intensive industries.

This study measures the environmental regulation effect and pattern of carbon emission and energy efficiency through data envelopment analysis and econometric estimation. One of the most important ways to achieve a green transition is promoting technical progress through environmental regulation. Though China has witnessed rapid economic growth over the last two decades, the country can improve it further through adopting sustainable green energy and establishing more energy-efficient industries to strike a good balance between economic and social developments. The oil and carbon dioxide emission performances form the most important metrics. This study uses panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2017 to assess the effect of environmental regulation on energy production. The nonradial directional distance function (NDDF) is used to measure the total factor energy efficiency index (TFEEI). The panel system GMM model, which can effectively address endogenous problems and regional variability, is utilized to research the nonlinear relationship between environmental regulations and EEI under various environmental regulations to study it. The findings reveal a considerably modest total average EEI amount for energy-intensive industries, averaging between 0.55 and 0.58, which is way below the ideal value (i.e., 1). Furthermore, the results of the dynamic panel data model revealed a significant U-shaped relationship between China's EEI and environmental regulation. The results show that as the values of market-based environmental regulations (MERs) and command and control environmental regulations (CCERs) exceed the corresponding levels, the impact of environmental regulation on the TFEEI increases gradually. This study will aid policymakers in better understanding the efficacy of different levels of environmental regulations to make more educated decisions.

School openings and the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. A provincial-level analysis using the synthetic control method

Schools have been central in the debate about COVID-19. On the one hand, many have argued that they should be kept open, given their importance to youngsters and the future of the country, and the effort many countries have made in establishing protocols to keep them safe. On the other hand, it has been argued that open schools further the spread of the virus, given that these are places with large-scale interaction between teenagers and adults accompanying their children, as well as a major source of congestion on public transportation. We aim to identify the effect of school openings on the spread of COVID-19 contagion. Italy offers an interesting quasi-experimental setting in this regard due to the scattered openings that schools have experienced. By means of a quantitative analysis, employing a synthetic control method approach, we find that Bolzano, the first province in Italy to open schools after the summer break, had far more cases than its synthetic counterfactual, built from a donor pool formed from the other Italian provinces. Results confirm the hypothesis that despite the precautions, opening schools causes an increase in the infection rate, and this must be taken into account by policymakers.

Health and economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution transfer attributed to domestic trade in China: a provincial-level analysis.

In recent years, severe air pollution has had a serious impact on the health and economy of residents and has attracted great attention. Due to the spatial separation between consumption and production, the transfer of PM2.5 pollution and its health and economic effects caused by interprovincial trade have not been taken seriously. In this study, economic, atmospheric, and epidemiological models were combined to assess air pollution transfer and its health and economic impacts that are attributed to provincial trade in China. The analyses were performed under the PM2.5 transfer scenario in which economically developed areas in eastern China transferred many health and economic impacts to inland areas through interprovincial trade in 2012. As a result of interprovincial trade, 1980 (95% CI 0, 4114) extra deaths and 208,000 (95% CI 74.5, 395.6) additional illnesses accrued, but 0.184 (95% CI 0.017, 0.372) billion USD of residents' economic loss was avoided in China. The results illustrate the serious impact of domestic trade on regional health and economics. It is necessary to comprehensively consider supply chains in designing policies to mitigate the negative health and economic impacts of air pollution across China.

The life cycle environmental rebound effect of battery electric vehicles in China: a provincial level analysis

ABSTRACT In China, the promotion of electric vehicles is now in full swing, which is useful for carbon emission reduction. However, the rebound effect has a negative impact on the emissions reduction. In this regarding, through employing the three-stage linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system (LA-AIDS) model, well-to-wheel (WTW) method and input-output analysis (IOA) method, this article investigates the life cycle environment rebound effect (REC) of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for 30 China’s provinces in three years, namely 2010, 2012 and 2015. The change of the REC to the variation of the cost of BEVs and the consumption expenditure is discussed as well. The estimation results indicate that the direct REC of BEVs in China ranges from 3% to 107%, while the indirect REC mainly fluctuates between −227% and 155%. Also, there are tremendous interprovincial differences in the REC of BEVs. The significant backfire effect can be found in these provinces, including Xinjiang, Qinghai, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia, while some provinces show super conservation effects. As for sensitivity analysis, this article indicates that the direct REC is negatively correlated with the total cost and positively related with the consumption expenditure, while the indirect REC shows the converse result.

Municipal solid waste (MSW) co-processing in cement kiln to relieve China's Msw treatment capacity pressure

In many countries, like China, the huge capacity of cement industry seems to be able to absorb the booming production of municipal solid waste (MSW). However, the rapid progress of incineration facilities construction raise questions such as will there be chances of cement kiln co-processing (CKC) to be utilized and promoted as an MSW complementary technology in China, and how will it develop in the future? This paper obtained numerous up-to-date data and information as support evidences to quantitatively evaluate the MSW treatment pressure and its temporal and spatial evolution in Chinese provinces, and estimate the CKC promotion and emission reduction potential for adapting to regional MSW demand. Results showed that CKC still has a great promotion potential. China's MSW treatment system was under long-term pressure and might have a shortage of 4.50 million tons in 2020. Provincial level analysis indicated that CKC could not only completely filled the treatment gap, but also replaced 78.05 million tons of landfill capacity. The resulting environmental benefits were significant, with a reduction of 2.55E+10 kg CO2 eq. and 4.47E+07 kg SO2 eq. from a life-cycle perspective for GWP and AP etc., respectively. Hence, CKC contributed to relieving the pressure on MSW management (MSWM) and improving environmental performance. By developing more precise regional planning, some of the issues that had hindered the spread of CKC could be addressed. The main findings of this paper might be influential in guiding the universalization of CKC in China and other regions.

Visitor Profiles of Coastal and Marine Tourism Sites in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

Current research on Coastal and Marine Tourism (CTM) in South Africa focuses on two main coastal tourism provinces (KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape) as well as specific CMT activities such as whale watching and shark cage diving. This study, therefore, contributes to the body of knowledge on CMT by focusing on the Eastern Cape and undertaking a provincial level analysis. Coastal and Marine Tourism location visitor profiles in terms of socio-economic profile, types of CMT visitors, types of CMT activities participated and future interest in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. CMT encompasses activities and resources in and near coastal and marine areas that attract visitors who participate in a range of active and passive business, adventure, leisure and recreational activities that generate socio-economic and environmental benefits. A quantitative approach is adopted, drawing on 700 visitor surveys that were conducted at purposively selected CMT locations in the Eastern Cape. Visitors were from a range of socio-economic backgrounds. There were high levels of participation in CMT activities, especially coastal leisure and recreational activities. Results indicate increased CMT location visitation demand. From a sustainability and responsible tourism perspective, understanding who visits CMT sites assists in ensuring effective planning to manage demand and protect/ conserve coastal and marine resources.

Dynamics of pollutants’ shadow price and its driving forces: An analysis on China’s two major pollutants at provincial level

The rapid change in environmental protection in China raises our interests in evaluating the shadow price of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and chemical oxygen demand (COD), and in developing a framework for analyzing the association between pollutants’ shadow prices and their driving forces: technological change, scale efficiency change, and pure efficiency change. The imbalance across the provinces also draws our attention to a provincial-level analysis. The results show that the national average shadow prices of SO2 and COD showed a substantial upward trend during 2001 and 2015, with the mean value being $2582.67/ton and $1639.79/ton, respectively. In most eastern provinces, the shadow prices of both pollutants were relatively higher than those in the central and western regions. For the eastern region, technological change, scale efficiency change, and pure efficiency change that brought about by a variety of measures impacted the social marginal abatement cost of SO2 significantly. For the western region, these three factors significantly impacted the marginal abatement cost of COD. For the central region, a change in scale efficiency brought about by the adjustment of production scale and/or industrial structure significantly impacted the marginal abatement cost of SO2, and the other two factors significantly impacted the marginal abatement cost of COD. The results suggest the importance of establishing a regionally differentiated policy framework, emphasizing on the measures that previously have not impacted the social marginal abatement cost, and setting up better coordination of synergies between multiple pollutants.

La eficiencia de los servicios públicos de empleo en España en un escenario descentralizado: Un análisis desde la perspectiva de la oferta

The article aims to study the role of Public Employment Services (PES) in the Spanish labor market. In order to achieve such an aim, there has been carried out a provincial-level analysis that incorporates several spatial aspects, the decentralization of active labor market policies and the existence of PES dependent on the autonomous communities. Economic theory indicates that the market share of PES is higher in those regions in which the labor market is less dynamic.