Prospects For Democratic Consolidation Research Articles

Assessing the Political System in Bangladesh: Challenges and Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

Assessing the Political System in Bangladesh: Challenges and Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

Surviving on Borrowed Power: Rethinking the Role of Civil Society in Zambia’s Third-Term Debate

Countries in Africa that feature a strong civil society are often assumed to have the best prospects for democratic consolidation. Zambia is often held up as an example of the democratic gains that can result from a robust non-state sector capable of checking the power of the government. Indeed, the literature is characterised by a remarkable consensus on the capacity of trade unions and religious organisations to force presidents to compromise, whether under authoritarian or democratic rule. The most significant recent victory is typically said to be the creation of the Oasis Forum, a coalition of civic associations formed to defend term limits against the attempts of the former president Frederick Chiluba to secure an unconstitutional third term in 2001. Drawing on previously unavailable and under-utilised newspaper, archival and oral primary sources, this article argues that the role played by the Oasis Forum was necessary but not sufficient. The erosion of Zambian civil society at that conjuncture made it weak and incapable of shifting Chiluba’s position; other forces were therefore required to do the job. Members of parliament from Chiluba’s own party and elements of the military emerged to fill this void and deal a decisive blow to his plans. More broadly, I argue that the capacity and the willingness of the unions and the churches to defend democracy have been overstated. The fragmentation of religious organisations has undermined the significance of the churches, while the twin processes of privatisation and the informalisation of the labour force have reduced the power of trade unions. Paradoxically, the transition to multi-party politics has gone hand in hand with the weakening rather than strengthening of non-state actors, as it has in many parts of the continent, demonstrating the limits of civil society.

Global Forces and Regime Change: Guatemala in the Central American Context

Drawing on theories of regime change, revolution, and democratization, this paper proposes a process theory to account for the 12 major regime transformations that have occurred in Central America since 1970. Political regimes, coherent systems of rule established among a coalition of dominant political actors, change when their prevailing political rules and their ruling coalitions undergo transformation. External forces are important to this process. The focal case is Guatemala and its prospects for democratic consolidation.

Democracy in Reverse: The 2016 General Election in Zambia

On 11 August 2016, Zambia held elections for the presidency, National Assembly, local councillors, and mayors. Concurrently, a referendum was held on whether to enhance the Bill of Rights in the Constitution of Zambia. The elections were significant for several reasons: It was the first contest under a newly amended Constitution, which introduced important changes to the electoral framework. It also marked a break with Zambia's positive historical record of arranging generally peaceful elections. Moreover, the election featured an electoral playing field that was notably tilted in favour of the incumbent party. Ultimately, the incumbent president, Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front, edged out opposition challenger Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development. The election was controversial and the opposition mounted an unsuccessful legal challenge to the final results. The 2016 elections represent a reversal in the quality of Zambian democracy and raise questions about the country's prospects for democratic consolidation.

Horizontal accountability and the challenges for democratic consolidation in Africa: evidence from Liberia

ABSTRACTWhy are most African emerging democracies failing to consolidate and reach the two-turnover test? Most scholars attribute this to the poor quality of elections and limited institutionalization of vertical accountability, overlooking some important variables. This article challenges this conception both theoretically and empirically by focusing on the quality of horizontal accountability illustrated by observations of comparative interest in Liberia's emerging democracy. Since the end of Liberia's bloody civil war in 2003, two successive and successful democratic elections (2005 and 2011) have been organized, putting Liberia on the path towards democratic consolidation. When analysing the electoral mechanism of vertical2016 accountability, many scholars have been enthusiastic about the prospects of democratic consolidation in Liberia, most of them neglecting the horizontal accountability processes that are also crucial for the quality and durability of democracy. This article analyses the processes and challenges of democratic consolidation in Liberia by focusing on key institutions of horizontal accountability. It argues that although the country has made some progress towards democratization since 2005, the domination and centralization of executive power, weak and dependent institutions of horizontal accountability (legislature, judiciary, national elections commission, general auditing commission, and anti-corruption commission) are major challenges to the consolidation of democracy. These findings have important implications for our understanding of horizontal accountability and democratic consolidation in African emerging democracies.

Pakistan: National Security Dilemmas and Transition to Democracy

Empirical evidence supports the notion that emergent and hybrid democratic regimes are often unstable and conflict-ridden. While these are important findings, the implication that instability is induced by democratic transitions provides a partial understanding of the dynamic. Pakistan’s recent return to a democratic system of government provides an opportunity to test this thesis and draw inferences about prospects for democratic consolidation. Using Pakistan as a case study, the research raises three important considerations towards a more comprehensive analysis of the dynamic of instability in democratic transitions. First, it emphasizes that a developing transitioning state is sometimes afflicted with protracted conflict conditions; hence the transition process per se may not have a direct or significant causal relationship with pervasive instability. Arguably, in the Pakistani context, conflict, chaos and instability are more a manifestation of pre-existing conflict conditions, more so than symptoms of democratization. Second, in considering the impact of the transition once it sets in motion, it appears to be an exacerbating dynamic, compounding the conditions of unabated conflict through social, political and economic tensions inherent in systemic change. In light of the above, a third consideration pertaining to the low capacity of transitioning systems to mitigate conflict is brought to the fore. This is significant as institutions are often weak and poorly equipped with conflict-resolution mechanisms and processes.

Perceived human rights and support for new democracies: lessons from Mexico

Political elites in emerging democracies are likely to promise improvements on human rights. From an empirical perspective, however, emerging democracies tend to perform rather poorly in this domain. Given this tension between elite rhetoric and performance, it is important to examine the extent to which citizens in emerging democracies evaluate democracy and new democratic leaders' performance on the bases of their perceptions of respect for human rights. This topic remains largely unexplored and conventional wisdom suggests that economic satisfaction, not human rights concerns, drives individuals' support for democracy. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by investigating the extent to which specific and diffuse political support is related to individuals' perceptions of respect for human rights in the context of an emerging democracy. Taking advantage of two representative survey data sets from Mexico from 2003 and 2010, our empirical findings suggest that citizens are more likely to support their president, their government and democratization when they believe that human rights are respected. By examining the relationship between democracy and human rights protections at the individual level, our research is a pioneering effort to better explain the interaction between the prospects of democratic consolidation and perceptions of human rights.

Turkey Under the AKP: Civil-Military Relations Transformed

Abstract: Recent years have seen a transformation in Turkish civil-military relations—away from the traditional picture of weak elected officials overseen by a strong military, to one of a strengthened civilian government and a military with decreased influence. This article explores the questions of how this transformation has occurred, whether it will last, and what it indicates about prospects for democratic consolidation in Turkey. It includes suggestions for ensuring the institutionalization of these changes, and discusses possible stumbling blocks to further advancement.

Electoral Reform and the Prospects of Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria

Electoral Reform and the Prospects of Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria

Military extrication and temporary democracy: the case of Pakistan

Pakistan's 1988 transition to democracy defies most of the conventional wisdom on democratization as well as the bulk of the literature on democratic transitions. This peculiar case can be understood as a case of ‘temporary democracy’, in which democracy emerges as a short-term outcome that is not likely to be sustained. Pakistan's military leaders chose to democratize because of the high short-term costs of repression coupled with the low long-term costs of allowing democracy. The authoritarian elite agreed to allow democratization knowing that the prospects of democratic consolidation were dim. In this sense, the same factors that made the consolidation of Pakistan's democracy unlikely made the transition possible.

Yeltsin, Putin, and Clinton: Presidential Leadership and Russian Democratization in Comparative Perspective

Immediately after coming to power, the Clinton administration declared the consolidation of market and democratic institutions in Russia to be a vital American interest. The administration's central tactic for promoting this outcome was to help Boris Yeltsin remain in power. In a major assault on Clinton's historical legacy, much of the scholarly community maintains that U.S. policy was fundamentally flawed, both morally and strategically. In the view of these analysts, post-Soviet Russia's founding president was an autocratic leader who derailed the country's progress toward democracy. However, this body of research focuses exclusively on the Russian Federation and fails to utilize comparative referents. In contrast, we analyze the experiences of the full population of post-communist states of Eastern Europe and Eurasia from 1991 to the present. Whether examined in cross-national or longitudinal perspective, we find that Russian democracy under Yeltsin was, relatively speaking, a success. We conclude that the Clinton administration's policy of support for Yeltsin both served various American foreign policy interests and strengthened the prospects for democratic consolidation in Russia, thereby fulfilling the dictates of both real- and idealpolitik. In addition, the relative success of Russia's democratization in the 1990s, the reversal of that pattern in this decade, and the magnitude of the transformation of the polity under Putin all demonstrate the pivotal role played by presidential leadership in Russia's transition.

The Philippines: predatory regime, growing authoritarian features

Over the past decade, and especially over the past few years, political corruption, fraud and violence in the Philippines have reached such alarming levels that many Filipinos have grown despondent, even cynical, about their country's political system. Exploring the suitability of the concepts of ‘predatory state’ and ‘patrimonial oligarchic state’ to the Philippines, I find that the regime rather than the state is the more appropriate unit of analysis. I argue that the predatory regime, controlled by a rapacious elite, that held sway during the years of the dictator Marcos, has made a comeback in the Philippines. Under the governments of President Joseph Estrada and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, traditional clientelism has given way to pervasive corruption, a systematic plunder of government resources and the rapid corrosion of public institutions into tools for predation. Instead of just being a throwback to the ‘old corruption’ of the Marcos era, however, the current predatory regime represents a ‘new corruption’ adapted to the ways of economic and political liberalization. While not as authoritarian as Marcos' regime, it has growing authoritarian tendencies: centralization of power in the executive; heightened repression; rigged elections; a much weakened rule of law; numerous political appointees in the bureaucracy; and increased influence of the military. A shift to naked authoritarianism, however, cannot be ruled out. As forces for democratic reform are much too weak, the predatory regime may be around for some time or it could give way, at best, to a more traditional clientelist electoral regime. Prospects for democratic consolidation in the Philippines in the near future appear bleak.

‘Garrison’ Democracy in Nigeria: The 2007 General Elections and the Prospects of Democratic Consolidation

This paper undertakes a critical analysis of the 2007 Nigerian general elections, with emphasis on the ‘garrison’ process and its implications for the consolidation of democracy. It is argued that garrisoned electoral processes represent a powerful source of democratic instability that can threaten the consolidation of democracy. The paper illustrates these processes and concludes that much, however, will depend on how ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ manage their successes and failures, respectively. The greatest threats to the consolidation of democracy in the aftermath of the garrisoned elections relate to the handling of post-election issues, especially election petitions, tribunals and court processes, by all stakeholders in the democratisation process. So far, these issues would appear largely to have been properly handled by all affected parties, raising hopes of the possibility of mitigating potential pitfalls. Sustained efforts are required both to ensure that these democratic gains endure and to avoid democratic regression that could potentially lead to military intervention.

Party systems in Africa: Problems of categorising and explaining party systems

Starting from controversial findings about the relationship between party systems and the prospects of democratic consolidation, this article argues that problems can only be properly addressed on the basis of a differentiated typology of party systems. Contradictory research results do not pose an ‘African puzzle’ but can be explained by different and inadequate approaches. We argue that a modified version of Sartori's typology of party systems provides an appropriate method for classifying African party systems. Based on Sartori's framework, a preponderance of predominant and dominant party systems is identified. This can be explained partly by the prevailing authoritarian nature of many multiparty regimes in Africa but not by electoral systems or the ethnic plurality of African societies. All kinds of electoral systems are connected to dominant party systems. High ethnic fragmentation does not automatically produce highly fragmented party systems. This phenomenon can be attributed to the ‘ethnic congress party’ that is based on an ethnic elite coalition.

The state and identity politics in Zanzibar: challenges to democratic consolidation in Tanzania

A group of islands off the coast of East Africa, Zanzibar has been a semi‐autonomous part of the United Republic of Tanzania since 1964. Despite a common language (Swahili), religion (Islam), and a high rate of intermarriage among the islands' multi‐racial communities (including Africans and individuals of Arab, Persian, and Indian descent), Zanzibar politics has been marred by political conflicts that have culminated into political stand‐offs, violence and lack of social and civic peace. At the core of these conflicts is the politicization of racial identity by leaders seeking the legitimacy to rule. Thus, unlike in Tanzania mainland, struggle for the control of the state in Zanzibar has been intense, deadly and zero‐sum. Indeed, the distinctive character of the Zanzibar state itself makes it appealing for the political elites to politicize ethno‐racial identities in order to claim legitimacy to rule. Two other things are at stake regarding the Zanzibar state: namely, the identity of the state (whether it is an Arab or African state) and sovereignty of the state (Zanzibar vs. Tanzania). This political instability threatens not only Zanzibar's relatively new democratic institutions, but also the Union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar and the prospects for democratic consolidation in Tanzania.

Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in East-Central Europe

Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in East-Central Europe

Coalition Behaviour in New Democracies of Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of Slovakia

Coalition behaviour in new democracies is an unexplored area of investigation despite much rich material in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe. Established coalition theory is relevant to such research, but it needs to adapt to special problems found in new regimes undergoing transition and not yet consolidated. In general, coalition politics is a vital indicator of the ability of new democratic elites for compromise and consensus formation, with obvious implications for the prospects of democratic consolidation. In the pertinent case of Slovakia, there are limits to applying the ideological criterion, while other dimensions of political space, including the ethnic, should be taken into consideration - which is true for many post-communist democracies. In other words, parallel transformations other than political democratization have a bearing on coalition politics; and these include nation-building as well as economic system change.

The South African local government elections of December 2000

Placing the South African local government elections of 5 December 2000 in the context of institutional reform and fiscal austerity, this article reviews the party political campaigns and the results. In particular, through use of local monitoring campaign reports - undertaken through the South African Civil Society Observer Coalition - a detailed analysis of electioneering is presented. In looking at the results of the elections comparisons are drawn with the 1995/96 local government elections, and it is concluded that the dominant position of the African National Congress is not totally unassailable and that the prospects for democratic consolidation are good.

Global Forces and Regime Change: Guatemala in the Central American Context

Drawing on theories of regime change, revolution, and democratization, this paper proposes a process theory to account for the 12 major regime transformations that have occurred in Central America since 1970. Political regimes, coherent systems of rule established among a coalition of dominant political actors, change when their prevailing political rules and their ruling coalitions undergo transformation. External forces are important to this process. The focal case is Guatemala and its prospects for democratic consolidation.

Political parties and party systems in Africa's illiberal democracies

The article attempts to capture some of the recent trends in Africa since the introduction of multiparty politics. It describes some key features of Africa's fledgling democracies and examines critically the notion of a growing trend of ‘illiberal’ or pseudo‐democracy in Africa. The article goes on to analyse central characteristics of the political parties in these countries, and discuss the types of political parties currently contesting elections in Africa. It examines the emergence of several distinct party systems in the region by analysing the number of parties represented in the legislature, the degree of polarisation, and the patterns of party competition. The article concludes by speculating on the prospects for democratic consolidation in these African countries given the functions that their political parties perform.