Prospects For Democracy Research Articles

Leadership And Democratization In Kazakhstan And Kyrgyzstan: Comparative Analysis Of Political Systems Of Post-Soviet Countries

This study aims to investigate the prospects of democratization in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan by comparing their political systems. The primary objective is to identify the factors influencing the varying degrees of democratic development between these two Central Asian countries, despite their similar socio-cultural and historical backgrounds. The methodology employed involves a systems analysis approach, examining both "input" and "output" functions of the political systems. Key variables include the levels of democracy as the independent variable, and political parties, leaders, resource distribution, and opposition suppression as dependent variables. Results indicate that Kazakhstan, under Nazarbayev, maintained a more controlled political environment through patronage networks and resource allocation, effectively limiting opposition and preserving stability. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan exhibited a more dynamic political landscape with multiple power shifts, driven by competitive party politics and less centralized control over resources. However, both countries face significant challenges, including regional fragmentation, corruption, and the influence of Islamist movements, which complicate their democratic trajectories. The findings suggest that while Kyrgyzstan shows potential for democratic development due to its parliamentary system and active civil society, Kazakhstan's path is hindered by entrenched authoritarian practices and elite control.

Disinformation and Regime Survival.

Disinformation has transformed into a global issue and while it is seen as a growing concern to democracy today, autocrats have long used it as a part of their propaganda repertoire. Yet, no study has tested the effect of disinformation on regime stability and breakdown beyond country-specific studies. Drawing on novel measures from the Digital Society Project (DSP) estimating the levels of disinformation disseminated by governments across 148 countries between 2000-2022 and from the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset, we provide the first global comparative study of disinformation and survival of democratic and authoritarian regimes, respectively. The results show that in authoritarian regimes, disinformation helps rulers to stay in power as regimes with higher levels of disinformation are less likely to experience democratization episodes. In democracies, on the other hand, disinformation increases the probability of autocratization onsets. As such, this study is the first to provide comparative evidence on the negative effects of disinformation on democracy as well as on the prospects of democratization.

Violence and Democracy

Abstract The relationship between violence and democracy is an enduring theme in political science. We know that civil war, revolution, and state repression are much less likely under democratic rule, but how do we get from such violence to democracy? We draw upon Sarah Zukerman Daly's book, Violent Victors: Why Bloodstained Parties Win Postwar Elections, to explore these questions. Daly addresses the enigma of belligerent parties, often marred by heinous atrocities, emerging victorious in postwar elections. She shows how such violent victors triumph by playing on their capacity to provide security. We broaden out from Daly's focus on postwar democratization to consider the prospects for democracy in the wake of state repression and revolution. Our review finds that voters may be less forgiving of violent state repression compared with civil war violence; political parties emerging from civil wars and state repression face cognate yet distinct challenges; and social revolutionary violence poses more serious and durable threats to democratization than violence from civil wars and state repression. These findings underscore the need for a wider research agenda that investigates the diverse forms of social and political violence and their implications for democracy.

Democracy and Institutional Change in Times of Crises in Latin America

Latin American democracies have gone through a series of perfect storms over the recent years. In what ways have these challenges transformed the institutional infrastructure of democracy? How have institutional reforms impacted the democratic prospects? This review article analyzes four recent edited volumes that approach the problems of institutional change against the backdrop of the multiple crises unfolding throughout the region. It describes two modes through which the reforms of political institutions have had an ambivalent or outright negative effect on the quality of democracy, and assesses the resilience of political institutions. Arguing for a more prominent role of informal institutions and political parties in institutional analyses, the article suggests that changes in formal political institutions have had a limited impact vis-à-vis the profound changes in political cleavages, culture wars, swift changes in religious identities and the decline of political parties.

Expansion of Russia-China Duo in Asian Region and the Future of Democracy

The world has become multi-polar with the emergence of Russia and China into the forefront of world politics toward the beginning of the twenty-first century. Within a couple of decades, they have acquired considerable economic and military might. As part of fulfilling their expansionist ambitions both Moscow and Beijing have succeeded in establishing political and economic grips in many parts of the world including Africa and Asia. Apart from possessing economic and political clout, they have been offering an alternative model of governance instead of liberal democracy championed by the West. Critics claim that this phenomenon is detrimental to the future of democracy. However, the alternative models of governance along with their underlying principles seem to be more acceptable to many national governments across the globe. They consider them suitable and pragmatic for the local environment. The Asian region has become a pivotal area of the expansion of Russia and China. The West also tries to build a democratic coalition in the region to check the progress of Russia and China. Against this backdrop, the present paper discusses the impact of increasing Russian and Chinese footprints in the contemporary period on the prospect of democracy in the Asian region with a special focus on Central and East Asia. The paper is divided into two major sections. The first part will discuss the impact of China on democracy and the second section with deal with the Russian influence. Keywords: Democracy Promotion, Russia, China, Neo-Liberalism, Central Asia, East Asia

Contemporary democracy: between political myth and political advocacy

The article examines some issues related to the development and consolidation of the democratic process in contemporary society. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of topics on the origins and meanings of the concept of democracy, the democratic ideal and real democracy, the challenges and paradoxes of democracy, as well as the perspectives of contemporary democracy. It is concluded that the discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of some or other forms of democracy is not finished and probably will not be finished soon, and today more and more disputes are going on some issues of theoretical, political and practical interest - what meaning we should give to the concept of democracy, how democracy works in the practice of contemporary society, what would be the nature and prospects of democracy.

The Political Effects of Witnessing State Atrocities: Evidence from the Nazi Death Marches

How does witnessing regime atrocities influence the political attitudes of bystanders? We argue that observing regime violence against innocent civilians triggers psychological dissonance between beliefs about the regime and the witnessed moral transgression. As a result, regime support should decrease among bystanders of state atrocities. We analyze original, highly disaggregated archival data from the Nazi death marches at the end of World War II, which confronted ordinary German citizens with the regime’s crimes. We find that locations with higher victim numbers had lower vote shares for right-wing nationalist parties after the war. Supporting our proposed mechanism, we show that (1) this effect was strongest when Nazi crimes were at the center of public discourse and (2) that witnessing Nazi atrocities was associated with individuals’ rejection of Hitler 20 years later. The findings have implications for understanding democratization prospects and people’s nostalgia for fallen autocrats.

Buttered Bagels

Buttered Bagels

Beyond the Anglo-World: Settler Colonialism and Democracy in the Americas

This essay argues that delimiting the settler colonial analytic to colonial legacies in the “Anglo-world” risks disavowing its congruent relationship with other colonial ideologies such as those of the Spanish imperial world. In examining Alexis de Tocqueville’s comparisons of Anglo- and Spanish American colonization alongside Latin American writers like Lorenzo de Zavala and Domingo Faustino Sarmiento, it shows how they occupied a common discursive terrain in grappling with the prospects for democracy in the new world. For Tocqueville, the failure of Spanish American democracy compared to the United States stems from the different systems of land colonization at work in each context. Sarmiento and Zavala provide different accounts of American colonization that exhibit both intersections with and departures from Tocqueville. Bringing these writers together shows how settler colonial ideologies and imaginaries in the Americas circulated in a shared hemispheric space and reciprocally shaped one another in contingent ways.

Democracy in Thailand

Summary: Democracy is an alien concept to Thailand. This study analyzes the possibilities for democratic action in the kingdom using a 7-question framework for analysis. The study concludes with the prospects for democracy in the kingdom. Summary of method: The framework for analyzing democracy in Southeast Asia has seven questions as follows: (1) Are there regularly held elections that are free and fair in the country? (2) Are there external or foreign observers of the elections? (3) Are the ballot boxes stuffed openly or secretly? (4) Are the voters bribed in any way before or during the elections? (5) Is the vote secret? (6) Are there secret police operating beyond the law? (7) Are there Opposition parties that can freely take part in elections with low barriers to entry? The study uses two main original tables to record the history of grassroots activism and General Elections since 1969 and supplement the framework.

Democratization Prospects and Challenges in Central and Eastern Europe after the Cold War: A Focus on the Visegrad Group in the Context of European Integration

This research focuses on democratization and consolidation in Central and Eastern Europe, specifically examining the Visegrad Group (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic) after the Cold War and EU Eastern Enlargement. Using different democratization and European Integration theories, it explores the factors influencing democratization, consolidation, and stability in this region. This study analyzes the transition from communism to democracy, the impact of European Integration on democratization, and the role of civil society organizations in promoting democratic values. It acknowledges the challenges posed by populism and illiberalism and suggests practical policy solutions to strengthen democratic values and stability in Central and Eastern Europe.

How Does Multi-Platform Social Media Use Lead to Biased News Engagement? Examining the Role of Counter-Attitudinal Incidental Exposure, Cognitive Elaboration, and Network Homogeneity

Using an online panel survey in the United States, this study examines how multi-platform social media use impacts news engagement on social media. Results show that multi-platform social media use prompts incidental exposure to counter-attitudinal news and further encourages people to cognitively elaborate on the counter-attitudinal information, which in turn contributes to news engagement on social media. However, news engagement is performed in a biased way that is supportive of like-minded content and non-supportive of counter-attitudinal content. Furthermore, the indirect effect of multi-platform social media use on biased news engagement becomes stronger when one’s network is more homogeneous. Although studies have pointed to the democratic prospects of multi-platform social media use as it leads to cross-cutting exposure, our results suggest that it could lead users to engage with news in ways that confirm their pre-existing attitudes and disconfirm counter-attitudinal ones.

A Bioethics for Democracy: Restoring Civic Vision.

Democracy-as a form of governance, a moral community, and a way of life-is under great stress. The prospects for democracy and bioethics are linked because bioethics relies on an open society and a democratic cultural environment in order to flourish. For its part, democracy can be restored and strengthened by widespread cultural and psychological support for the values of mutual recognition, equal dignity and respect for persons, and solidarity, interdependence, and the common good. Promoting values such as these is in keeping with the founding vision of bioethics, which was a civic vision. At the present time, bioethics can and should continue to be a bioethics for democracy by engaging directly in civic learning and civic place-making. These have a significant impact on health as well as on democracy.

Anti-Authoritarian Learning: Prospects for Democratization in Belarus Based on a Study of Polish Solidarity

AbstractThis article examines the anti-Lukashenka protest movement in Belarus by comparing it to the Solidarity movement in Poland. We organize our analysis around the concept of four stages identifiable in the development of social movements: emergence, coalescence, bureaucratization, and decline. We argue that protests in Belarus reached the bureaucratization stage, but their transformation into a more durable movement was slowed down by the brutal repressions unleashed by the Lukashenka regime propped up by Putin’s Russia. However, the spectacular changes in people’s conceptions of national identity built around symbols different from those associated with the officialdom may sustain emotional mobilization necessary for formation of higher levels of organizations in the oppressive context of today’s Belarus. The contours of this process are brought into sharp relief when compared with the long, cumulative trajectory of the 1956-89 anti-authoritarian Polish revolts. This opens the way for cautious prognostication.

MEDIA AND DEMOCRATISATION: CHALLENGES OF THE 1990S

The 1990s were an important time for experimentation and change in media policy in the emerging Russian Federation. Informed citizenry was a stated goal, but it coexisted with other strong currents, concerns about excessive and overly critical accounts functioning to endanger democratic prospects. Media law and policy was then also shaped to burnish electoral mandates or to help support particular visions of the post-Soviet society. Important experiments included the Presidential Judicial Chamber on Information Disputes and the Treaty of Public Accord.

THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE LINE OF ATLANTICISM POLICY

The policy of the "Collective West" with respect to the Western Balkans is determined by the geostrategic significance of the region in world politics. The ability to control this territory gives the powers significant political, economic, and military advantages. The EU and NATO have become centres of attraction for the Western Balkan countries since the beginning of the 90s of the twentieth century, offering them prospects for modernization and democratization, promising to finance reforms, create investment opportunities and grant full membership in the "club of the rich". In reality, the democratic prospect has not improved the situation in the region, it has not ceased the hostility of peoples, and it has not built a stable economy. The aspiration of the Euro-Atlanticists to consolidate the results of the victory in the Cold War, to prevent Russia's revenge and China’s strengthening has led to the expansion of the military and political presence, and it contributes to the escalation of tension now. The lack of unity between the EU and the USA on the future of Kosovo, Republika Srpska as part of Bosnia and Herzegovina is fraught with a new revision of borders in the Balkans.

Elections in Kazakhstan: the transformation of the electoral process

The article presents a comparative analysis of evolutionary features of the formation and development of representative bodies through the election institute, which is one of the important and topical issues in the context of the democratization of modern Kazakhstan. The main purpose of the scientific paper is a detailed analysis of elections in the formation of representative power in the Republic of Kazakhstan from the point of view of political science. This is due to the fact that the electoral process in the country develops in accordance with the democratic regime and undergoes legislative reforms, as well as related difficulties. The peculiarity of the article is the detailed analysis of the evolutionary development of the electoral process through such valid methods as comparative analysis and cross-temporal comparisons. The characteristics of the evolution of elections in the Republic of Kazakhstan are defined based on a careful examination. The election system and stages of the electoral process that influence political party ratings have been investigated. The structure of representative authority in Independent Kazakhstan has been studied, as well as the characteristics of electorate participation in elections, the proportion of women in the chamber of Mazhilis of the Parliament, the number of parties, and the average age of deputies. As a result of the study, scientific conclusions were made and hypotheses to improve the electoral system of the country were proposed. Thus, the analysis of the process of formation of Kazakhstan’s electoral system is important not only for the study of the electoral policy itself but also to assess the prospects for further democratization of the political system of Kazakhstan. It is the institution of elections that determines and directs the process of democratic construction and is the main condition for the development of the modern political system

Democracy revisited? Prospects of (liberal) democracy (not only) in the East-Central Europe

Abstract Scholarly debate about the prospects of democracy have undergone a fundamental change in the last three decades. While the period of the 1990s might be distinguished by extensive optimism, in the 2000s we can observe a distinct change towards a more restrained perception. Furthermore, the last decade might be evaluated as pessimistic in the social sciences on the grounds of economic recession after 2008 as well other crisis in an economic, societal and political senses. The rather distinctive terms used for the expression of doubts about the pro-democratic development and consolidation, such as ‘semi-consolidated’, ‘new’ or ‘young’ democracy, or de-democratisation, were replaced with more dramatic expressions such as illiberal democracy, democratic backsliding, hybrid, regime, soft dictatorship and ‘the light that failed’, as Krastev described the recent image of East-Central Europe in an almost dystopic manner. While in the 1990s the Slovak version of democratura – Mečiarism – was perceived as the exception, in the late 2010s populist neo-illiberal regimes became the dominant shape of regimes in (East)Central Europe. This review essay presents three recent analyses of the democratic backsliding and state capture (not only) in East-Central Europe and frames this presentation into the more extensive literature review.

Political Entrepreneurship di Madura (Studi tentang Kuasa Aktor dalam Demokratisasi Lokal)

This article focuses on efforts to find political entrepreneurship for poli-tical actors in Alang-alang Village and the prospects for democracy that are occurring. Based on the research conducted, there are several inte-resting things, including: First, the political entrepreneurship of Alang-alang village Klebun can be seen in the political strategy applied to manage the surrounding actors. Every relationship built by a Klebun to the actors around them is realized as part of the production of power and at the same time maintaining it. Second, in the context of demo-cratization at the local level, political actors in Alang-alang village are trying to get out of the previous centralism of power. The tagline "People's soldier" made by the Alang-alang village government places the community as a king who must be served. However, the ability of Klebun to manage village politics must also be anticipated so that a new king does not emerge at the village level.

Politics of memory in Ukraine. A case study on the commemoration of Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky

The aim of the paper is to scrutinize activities related to the commemoration of Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky. There were three main goals of the research. The first one was to identify the most important actors of the commemorative activities. The second goal was to reconstruct the strategies applied by these agents. Thirdly, this research aimed to consider current processes in the Ukrainian political system. In particular, the question was what we can know about the evolution of these commemorative activities after the Euromaidan based on relations between different agents in the mnemonic field. Special emphasis was placed on Sheptytsky’s attitude during the Holocaust and on the impact of this topic on the commemorative activities. As a theoretical framework of the research, Jan Kubik and Michael Bernhard’s theory of the politics of memory was applied. The research enabled verification of some elements of Kubik and Bernhard’s concept. Inter alia it was an issue of a set of presumptions regarding interrelations between strategies applied by mnemonic actors, the structure of mnemonic regime, and prospects for democratization of a political system.