Population-based Prospective Follow-up Study Research Articles

Rehabilitation Needs, Service Provision, and Costs in the First Year Following Traumatic Injuries: Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study.

BackgroundTraumatic injuries, defined as physical injuries with sudden onset, are a major public health problem worldwide. There is a paucity of knowledge regarding rehabilitation needs and service provision for patients with moderate and major trauma, even if rehabilitation research on a spectrum of specific injuries is available.ObjectiveThis study aims to describe the prevalence of rehabilitation needs, the provided services, and functional outcomes across all age groups, levels of injury severity, and geographical regions in the first year after trauma. Direct and indirect costs of rehabilitation provision will also be assessed. The overarching aim is to better understand where to target future efforts.MethodsThis is a population-based prospective follow-up study. It encompasses patients of all ages with moderate and severe acute traumatic injury (New Injury Severity Score >9) admitted to the regional trauma centers in southeastern and northern Norway over a 1-year period (2020). Sociodemographic and injury data will be collected. Upon hospital discharge, rehabilitation physicians estimate rehabilitation needs. Rehabilitation needs are assessed by the Rehabilitation Complexity Scale Extended–Trauma (RCS E–Trauma; specialized inpatient rehabilitation), Needs and Provision Complexity Scale (NPCS; community-based rehabilitation and health care service delivery), and Family Needs Questionnaire–Pediatric Version (FNQ-P). Patients, family caregivers, or both will complete questionnaires at 6- and 12-month follow-ups, which are supplemented by telephone interviews. Data on functioning and disability, mental health, health-related quality of life measured by the EuroQol Questionnaire (EQ-5D), and needs and provision of rehabilitation and health care services are collected by validated outcome measures. Unmet needs are represented by the discrepancies between the estimates of the RCS E–Trauma and NPCS at the time of a patient’s discharge and the rehabilitation services the patient has actually received. Formal service provision (including admission to inpatient- or outpatient-based rehabilitation), informal care, and associated costs will be collected.ResultsThe project was funded in December 2018 and approved by the Regional Committee for Medical and Health Research Ethics in October 2019. Inclusion of patients began at Oslo University Hospital on January 1, 2020, and at the University Hospital of North Norway on February 1, 2020. As of February 2021, we have enrolled 612 patients, and for 286 patients the 6-month follow-up has been completed. Papers will be drafted for publication throughout 2021 and 2022.ConclusionsThis study will improve our understanding of existing service provision, the gaps between needs and services, and the associated costs for treating patients with moderate and major trauma. This may guide the improvement of rehabilitation and health care resource planning and allocation.International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/25980

Risk factors for spontaneous abortion from a prevention perspective in rural China: a population-based follow-up study

Objectives We conducted this study to investigate the risk factors for spontaneous abortion among rural Chinese women. Methods Risk factors prior to pregnancy associated with spontaneous abortion were identified among 17,248 rural women enrolled in a prospective population-based follow-up study. The risk of spontaneous abortion was estimated with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for several factors. A nonconditional logistic regression analysis was then performed to identify the independently associated factors. Results The total sample of this study population consisted of 17,248 pregnant women including 921 of them whose pregnancies resulted in spontaneous abortion and the incidence of spontaneous abortion was 5.04%. After the adjustment of confounding factors, menarche age, serum creatinine, family genetic diseases or maternal congenital defects was associated with an increased risk of spontaneous abortion while folic acid supplementation reduced the risk among rural Chinese women. Conclusions The findings of our study suggest that multiple modifiable factors may increase the risk of spontaneous abortion which may help relevant departments better to guide detailed effectively prevention strategies toward spontaneous abortion to improve the reproductive quality of rural population. Further studies are required to elaborate these risk factors for spontaneous abortion.

Dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids intake modifies the positive association between serum total cholesterol and colorectal cancer risk: the Rotterdam Study

BackgroundIt remains unclear whether serum total cholesterol is associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Interplay between dietary fatty acids and serum total cholesterol on CRC risk may be present as...

Children with classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia experience salt loss and hypoglycemia: evaluation of adrenal crises during the first 6 years of life.

To evaluate adrenal crises after the start of treatment up to the age of 6 years in children with classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH). Analysis of data extracted from a population-based prospective long-term follow-up study of children detected in neonatal screening. Data of 102 Bavarian children with classic CAH due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency were analyzed, using parental questionnaires and medical reports. Parent-reported hospital admissions of children diagnosed with acute health impairment were included in the analysis if salt loss (hyponatremia) or hypoglycemia was documented in the discharge summary. A total of 74 children (72.5%) had no report of hospital admissions with salt loss or hypoglycemia during the observational period. However, in 27.5% of the children, 22 salt-wasting crises (seven of these also with low blood glucose) and 16 hypoglycemic episodes without salt loss were reported. Furthermore, the cumulative incidence for seizures was elevated; 13 children experienced seizures during hyponatremia or hypoglycemia. Most adrenal crises were triggered by infections, often with inappropriate emergency management, but in 11 cases hypoglycemia occurred unexpectedly, without evidence of severe illness and without any management errors. Frequency of adrenal crises was 6.5 per 100 patient years (95% CI: 4.6-8.8). Crisis prevention remains a permanent challenge for families and physicians caring for children with classic CAH. Expert care and compliance with emergency recommendations are crucial. Further research on the interactions among glucocorticoid deficiency, adrenomedullary dysfunction, and glucose metabolism is necessary for the prevention of hypoglycemia, especially in young CAH patients.

Association Between Glycosylated Hemoglobin and Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Older Adults without Diabetes Mellitus in the General Population: The Leiden 85-Plus Study.

To examine the association between glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and incident cardiovascular disease and mortality in 85-year-old individuals without diabetes mellitus from the general population. Population-based prospective follow-up study. General population. Individuals without known diabetes mellitus (N=445, n=291 female). HbA1c levels were categorized into three groups (<5.0% (31mmol/mol), 5.0-5.7% (31-39mmol/mol; reference), 5.7-6.5% (39-48mmol/mol)). At baseline, a history of myocardial infarction (MI) was more prevalent in subjects in the highest HbA1c group (18%) than in the reference group (7%) (P=.001). Prospectively, those with the highest level of HbA1c at baseline had a risk of incident MI during the 5-year follow-up that was 3.6 (95% confidence interval=1.5-8.3) times as great as that of the reference group. No association was found between HbA1c level and incident stroke, cardiovascular mortality, or all-cause mortality. In individuals aged 85 and older without diabetes mellitus, higher HbA1c is associated with greater risk of MI but not with stroke and mortality.

Occupational status and incidences of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in Swedish men: a population-based 35-year prospective follow-up study

This study examined variations in stroke incidence across occupational classes over a 35-year follow-up period. We analyzed a random population-based sample of 6,994 men aged 47-56years at baseline without prior history of stroke. Standardized incidence rates, subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) from competing risk regressions and cumulative incidence were calculated, after accounting for risk of death attributed to causes other than stroke. A total of 1,442 strokes were identified over the 35-year period with crude incidences of 5.50 (ischemic) and 1.16 (hemorrhagic) per 1,000 person-years. In the whole group, occupational class was not associated with either ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. However, older men (≥51years at baseline) with unskilled manual occupations had a significantly lower risk of ischemic stroke than those with high officials (referent). No association between occupation and stroke of either type was detected for men younger than 51years. There was an inverse and graded risk of death from causes other than stroke; men in high official positions had the lowest cumulative risk and unskilled manual workers had the highest risk (P<0.0001). The association between occupation and ischemic stroke in older men persisted after accounting for competing risks of death (SHR 0.62; 95% CI 0.46-0.84). In conclusion, low socioeconomic status was not associated with an increased risk of incident hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke. Older men with the lowest occupational status i.e. unskilled manual had a significantly lower risk of ischemic stroke, even after controlling for other risk factors and competing risks of death.

Blood pressure trends and mortality

To evaluate the independent contributions of both the trend in SBP and the SBP value at age 90 to the prediction of mortality in nonagenarians. The trend in SBP between 85 and 90 years and SBP at age 90 years were assessed in a population-based sample of 271 participants (74 men and 197 women) aged 90 years of the Leiden 85-plus Study, an observational population-based prospective follow-up study (started 1997). Primary endpoint, followed up over 5 years (median 3.6 years), was all-cause mortality. A decreasing trend in SBP between 85 and 90 years (decline ≥2.9 mmHg/year) was associated with increased mortality compared to an average SBP trend (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.02-2.06), independent of SBP at age 90. The effect was stronger in institutionalized participants compared to those living independently [hazard ratio 1.87 (1.10-3.19) and hazard ratio 1.30 (0.81-2.09)]. After analysis with a fully adjusted model, the estimate approached unity [hazard ratio 1.08 (0.60-1.86)]. Overall, 90-year-old participants with SBP of 150 mmHg or less had a 1.62 times increased mortality risk compared to those with SBP more than 150 mmHg (1.21-2.20), independent of the SBP trend in preceding years. This applied to those with and without antihypertensive drugs and those with and without history of cardiovascular disease or noncardiovascular disease. In the fully adjusted model, the estimate was 1.47 (0.90-2.40). In very old age, both decreasing trend in SBP over the previous 5 years and the current SBP value independently contribute to prediction of all-cause mortality. Therefore, in individual patients, all available preceding SBP measurements should be taken into account.

Predictive factors of urinary tract infections among the oldest old in the general population. a population-based prospective follow-up study

BackgroundUrinary tract infections (UTI) are common among the oldest old and may lead to a few days of illness, delirium or even to death. We studied the incidence and predictive factors of UTI among the oldest old in the general population.MethodsThe Leiden 85-plus Study is a population-based prospective follow-up study of 86-year-old subjects in Leiden, The Netherlands. Information on the diagnosis of UTI was obtained annually during four years of follow-up from the medical records and interviews of treating physicians. A total of 157 men and 322 women aged 86 years participated in the study. Possible predictive factors were collected at baseline, including history of UTI between the age of 85 and 86 years, aspects of functioning (cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) < 19), presence of depressive symptoms (Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) > 4), disability in activities of daily living (ADL)), and co-morbidities.ResultsThe incidence of UTI from age 86 through 90 years was 11.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4, 13.1) per 100 person-years at risk. Multivariate analysis showed that history of UTI between the age of 85 and 86 years (hazard ratio (HR) 3.4 (95% CI 2.4, 5.0)), impaired cognitive function (HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.3, 2.9)), disability in daily living (HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1, 2.5)) and urine incontinence (HR 1.5 (95% CI 1.0, 2.1)) were independent predictors of an increased incidence of UTI from age 86 onwards.ConclusionsWithin the oldest old, a history of UTI between the age of 85 and 86 years, cognitive impairment, ADL disability and urine incontinence are independent predictors of developing UTI. These predictive factors could be used to target preventive measures to the oldest old at high risk of UTI.

Effect of erythropoietin levels on mortality in old age: the Leiden 85-plus Study

The production of erythropoietin is triggered by impaired oxygen delivery to the kidney, either because of anemia or hypoxemia. High erythropoietin levels have been shown to predict the risk of death among patients with chronic heart failure. We investigated the prognostic value of elevated erythropoietin levels on mortality among very elderly people in the general population. The Leiden 85-plus Study is a population-based prospective follow-up study involving 599 people aged 85 years in Leiden, the Netherlands, enrolled between September 1997 and September 1999. Erythropoietin levels were determined at age 86. For this analysis, we included 428 participants with a creatinine clearance of at least 30 mL/min. Mortality data, recorded until Feb. 1, 2008, were obtained from the municipal registry. During follow-up, 324 (75.7%) participants died. Compared with participants whose erythropoietin levels were in the lowest tertile (reference group), those whose levels were in the middle tertile had a 25% increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.64), and those whose levels were in the highest tertile had a 73% increased risk (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.32-2.26) (p value for trend < 0.01). The association between erythropoietin levels and mortality remained largely unchanged after we adjusted for sex, creatinine clearance, hemoglobin level, comorbidity, smoking status and C-reactive protein level, and was similar for deaths from cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes. Among people aged 85 years and older, elevated erythropoietin levels were associated with an increased risk of death, independent of hemoglobin levels.

Effect of erythropoietin levels on mortality in old age: the Leiden 85-plus Study

<h3>Background</h3> The production of erythropoietin is triggered by impaired oxygen delivery to the kidney, either because of anemia or hypoxemia. High erythropoietin levels have been shown to predict the risk of death among patients with chronic heart failure. We investigated the prognostic value of elevated erythropoietin levels on mortality among very elderly people in the general population. <h3>Methods</h3> The Leiden 85-plus Study is a population-based prospective follow-up study involving 599 people aged 85 years in Leiden, the Netherlands, enrolled between September 1997 and September 1999. Erythropoietin levels were determined at age 86. For this analysis, we included 428 participants with a creatinine clearance of at least 30 mL/min. Mortality data, recorded until Feb. 1, 2008, were obtained from the municipal registry. <h3>Results</h3> During follow-up, 324 (75.7%) participants died. Compared with participants whose erythropoietin levels were in the lowest tertile (reference group), those whose levels were in the middle tertile had a 25% increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–1.64), and those whose levels were in the highest tertile had a 73% increased risk (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.32–2.26) (<i>p</i> value for trend &lt; 0.01). The association between erythropoietin levels and mortality remained largely unchanged after we adjusted for sex, creatinine clearance, hemoglobin level, comorbidity, smoking status and C-reactive protein level, and was similar for deaths from cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes. <h3>Interpretation</h3> Among people aged 85 years and older, elevated erythropoietin levels were associated with an increased risk of death, independent of hemoglobin levels.

High-ceiling diuretics are associated with an increased risk of basal cell carcinoma in a population-based follow-up study

Introduction In Caucasians, basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is among the most frequently diagnosed cancers and its incidence is increasing. Known risk factors for the development of BCC are age, sun exposure, and certain skin characteristics. Despite photosensitizing abilities of diuretic agents, little is known about a possible association with BCC. Methods Data were obtained from the Rotterdam Study; a large prospective population-based follow-up study with coverage of prescription-only drugs from pharmacies. The diagnoses of BCC were obtained through general practitioners, and by linkage with a registry of histo- and cytopathology. Cumulative use of diuretics at the date of diagnosis was categorized into quartiles for users of high-ceiling diuretics, potassium sparing agents and thiazides. The association between these drugs and BCC was assessed by Cox proportional hazard modeling with adjustment for age, gender and potential confounders. Effect modification was tested with interaction terms. Results Use of high-ceiling diuretics in the highest quartile (>3.7 years cumulative exposure) was associated with an increased hazard of BCC of 62% compared to no use (HR 1.6; 95% CI 1.1–2.4). Patients who used high-ceiling diuretics and had a high tendency of getting sunburned had a higher risk of diagnosis than non-users who do not easily get sunburned. Neither the use of potassium sparing agents, nor the use of thiazides was associated with BCC. Conclusion In our study, cumulative use of high-ceiling diuretics was associated with an increased risk of diagnosis of BCC. This effect is stronger in patients who easily get sunburned.

Rationale and design of the CAREFUL study : The yield of CARdiogenetic scrEening in First degree relatives of sudden cardiac and UnexpLained death victims

Background. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the young (1-45 years) is a strong risk factor for the presence of inherited cardiac diseases in surviving first-degree relatives. Postmortem investigation of the victim and cardiogenetic evaluation of the first-degree relatives is indicated to detect inherited cardiac diseases and treat relatives at an early stage to prevent SCD. In the Netherlands, postmortem investigation is often not performed and relatives of SCD and sudden unexplained death (SUD) victims are rarely evaluated for inherited cardiac diseases.Methods. A prospective population-based follow-up study carried out in two intervention regions and two control regions. In the intervention regions a comprehensive intervention (stimulate autopsy and storage of victims DNA and the referral of first-degree relatives for cardiogenetic evaluation) is applied in a 'top down' and 'bottom up' mode. In each region, young sudden death victims are registered and for all cases performance of autopsy and evaluation of relatives in a cardiogenetics outpatient clinic will be determined.Expected results. The study will provide information on the incidence of sudden death in the young and the proportion of diagnosed inherited cardiac diseases. Moreover, the additional value of the introduction of two different preventive strategies directed at early detection of inherited cardiac diseases in first-degree relatives to usual care will be evaluated. Conclusion. The CAREFUL study will help to set a new standard of care in the evaluation of young sudden death victims and their relatives to identify the presence of inherited cardiac diseases, in order to prevent sudden death. (Neth Heart J 2010;18:286-90.).

Effect of anemia and comorbidity on functional status and mortality in old age: results from the Leiden 85-plus Study

There is limited insight into the attributable effect of anemia and comorbidity on functional status and mortality in old age. The Leiden 85-plus Study is a population-based prospective follow-up study of 562 people aged 85 years. Anemia was defined according to World Health Organization criteria. We measured 3 parameters of functional status at baseline and annually thereafter for 5 years: disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living, cognitive function and the presence of depressive symptoms. We obtained mortality data from the municipal registry. The prevalence of anemia at baseline was 26.7% (150/562). Participants who had anemia at baseline had more disability in activities of daily living, worse cognitive function and more depressive symptoms than participants without anemia at baseline (p <or= 0.01). These differences disappeared after adjustment for comorbidity. After adjustment for comorbidity in the prospective analyses, anemia at baseline was associated with an additional increase in disability in instrumental activities of daily living during follow-up; incident anemia during follow-up (n = 99) was associated with an additional increase in disability in basic activities of daily living. Prevalent and incident anemia were both associated with an increased risk of death, even after we adjusted for sex, education level, income, residence in a long-term care facility, C-reactive protein level, creatinine clearance and the presence of disease (hazard ratio for prevalent anemia 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13 to 1.76; hazard ratio for incident anemia 2.08, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.70). Anemia in very elderly people appears to be associated with an increased risk of death, independent of comorbidity. However, the associated functional decline appears to be attributed mainly to comorbidity.

One-year change in the second metacarpal bone mass associated with menopause nutrition and physical activity.

To clarify the annual changes and effects of nutrition and physical activity on bone mass at the second metacarpal using computed X-ray densitometry. Population-based prospective follow-up study. Bone mass measurements and assessments of nutritional intake, exercise habits, and health status were conducted twice with a one-year interval. 269 Japanese women aged 40 - to -80 - years old. The annual change rate among subjects who started menopause during the observation period was -4.2 +/- 4.9%. Bone mass subsequently continued to decrease 3% annually until 6 years after menopause. Subjects who consumed high levels of milk or calcium in the first year showed no substantial decrease in bone mass among the post-menopausal subjects. Premenopausal subjects who began or continued exercise evidenced increased bone mass, and peri-menopausal subjects who continued exercise or a high level of daily physical activity showed inhibited bone loss. Second metacarpal bone changed by menopause, nutrition and physical activity similar with other bone site presented in the previous studies.

Falls in very old people: The population-based Umeå 85+ Study in Sweden

The aim of this study was to describe incidences of falls and fall-related injuries, and to identify predisposing factors for falls in very old people in a prospective population-based follow-up study for falls. The study is part of the Umeå 85+ Study which includes half of the population aged 85, and the total population aged 90 and ≥95 (−103), in Umeå, Sweden. Of the 253 people interviewed, 220 (87%) were followed up for falls for 6 months, of whom 109 lived in ordinary and 111 in institutional housing. A comprehensive geriatric baseline assessment was made through interviews and testing during home visits. Forty percent of the participants did fall a total 304 times, corresponding to 2.17 falls per Person Year (PY). It occurred 0.83 injuries per PY, including 0.14 fractures per PY. In a Cox regression analysis, the independent explanatory risk factors for time to first fall were dependency in activities of daily living (ADL), thyroid disorders, treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and occurrence of falls in the preceding year. It could be predicted that every seventh participant and every third of the people who did fall would suffer a fracture within 1 year. ADL, thyroid disorders and treatment with SSRIs should be considered in fall prevention programmes.

Childhood Predictors of Deliberate Self-Harm Behavior and Suicide Ideation in Korean Adolescents: A Prospective Population-Based Follow-Up Study

The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of adolescence suicidality in a longitudinal study. Additionally, the prevalence of deliberate self-harm behavior and suicide ideation at age 7 and during middle school were examined. Initial assessment data was obtained from 1998 to 2000, and a follow-up assessment was performed in 2006 when the original subjects became middle school students. The addresses and names of 1,857 subjects were located from the original data; they were 910 boys and 947 girls. The subjects were evaluated with the Korean version of the Child Behavior Checklist (K-CBCL), which was administered by the parents of the children, and by various demographic and psychosocial factors. They were reassessed using self reports on the Korea Youth Self Report (K-YSR); in particular, replies to items related to self-harm behavior and suicide ideation were recorded. A logistic regression analysis showed that the factors of gender, economic status, the overall amount of behavior problems, the tendency to internalizing and externalizing problems, somatic problems, thought problems, delinquent behavior, and aggressive behavior were independent predictors of adolescent suicide ideation and self-harm behavior. The importance of total behavior problems suggested that adolescent difficulty is a consequence of an accumulation of various risk factors. Accordingly, clinicians must consider a range of internalizing and externalizing issues, especially overall adaptation, for suicide intervention.

Psychosocial Consequences of Genetic Counseling: A Population-Based Follow-up Study

We aimed to examine the psychosocial impact of genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer 1 year following genetic counseling. We conducted a population-based prospective follow-up study of 213 women who received genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, 319 women who underwent mammography (Reference Group I), and a random sample of 1,070 women from the general population (Reference Group II). The prevalence of anxiety decreased by 4.7% (95% CI: -3.5; 12.8) from baseline to 1 year of follow-up in the Genetic Counseling Group. Likewise, it decreased by 2.5% (95% CI: -4.5; 9.5) in Reference Group I and by 1.1% (95% CI: -2.3; 4.7) in Reference Group II. The prevalence of depression increased equally (1-3%) in the three study groups. 52% of the women referred for genetic counseling experienced cancer-specific distress at baseline and this proportion decreased to 41% after 12 months of follow-up. This decrease of 10.8% (95% CI: 1.4; 20.8) exceeded the decrease observed in both Reference Groups. However, it was statistically significant only in the case of Reference Group II (p=0.006). Our findings indicate that genetic counseling can help alleviate cancer-specific distress among women with a family history of breast and ovarian cancer. Further, genetic counseling does not appear to have an adverse impact on general anxiety, symptoms of depression, or health-related quality of life.

Stability of the sense of coherence in adolescence

The aim of this prospective study was to explore the stability of sense of coherence (SOC) in adolescents from the age of 15 to 18 years. A prospective population-based follow-up study of 1294 first-born children was started in 1986. When the children were 15 (N = 846) and 18 (N = 792) years old, SOC was measured using questionnaires filled out at home. The mean change in SOC scores (0.10, SD 10.2; in percentages 1.98%, SD 18.4) in the whole sample between the ages of 15 and 18 years was negligible and non-significant (p = .788). At the individual level, some changes were seen in the scores. The SOC scores of boys at the ages of 15 and 18 years were significantly higher than those of girls (mean 65.4 vs. 60.8 and 65.4 vs. 61.7, respectively). The SOC scores of adolescents living with both parents were higher than those with one parent or other guardian (mean 64.5 vs. 59.9), and the difference was significant in both age groups (p < .001). Contrary to assumptions made in Antonovsky's theory, we found no significant change in SOC between the ages of 15 to 18 years, and coherence stability did not depend on the initial SOC. Some fluctuation in SOC scores was seen at the individual level. For planning of interventions, it is important to know that SOC seems to be reasonably stabilized before the age of 15 years.

Clinical Course in Crohn’s Disease: Results of a Norwegian Population-Based Ten-Year Follow-Up Study

Most studies concerning the clinical course in CD are retrospective or based on selected patient groups. Our aim was to assess the course of CD in a prospective population-based follow-up study and to identify possible prognostic risk factors for complications on the basis of information obtained at initial diagnosis. From 1990-1994, a population-based cohort of 843 new cases of inflammatory bowel disease was recruited in South-Eastern Norway. The cohort was systematically followed up at 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis. Of 237 patients classified as CD, 197 completed the 10 years of follow-up, 18 died, and 22 were lost to follow-up. The cumulative relapse rate during the first 10 years was 90% (95% confidence interval, 86%-94%), and the cumulative probability of surgery was 37.9% (95% confidence interval, 31.4%-44.4%). Terminal ileal location (P < .001), stricturing (P = .004), penetrating behavior (P < .001), and age younger than 40 years (P = .03) at diagnosis were independent risk factors for subsequent surgery. A total of 53% (n = 105) of the patients had developed stricturing or penetrating disease at 10 years. A large proportion of patients (44%) were in clinical remission during the last 5 years of follow-up. The prognosis for CD seems better than previously reported. The probability of surgery was low, and fewer than expected developed complicated disease behavior. Nevertheless, the cumulative relapse rate of 90% and the finding of prognostic risk factors for subsequent surgery might call for attention to early effective medical treatment strategies.

Liver X Receptor Alpha Associates With Human Life Span

In the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, nuclear hormone receptor DAF-12 regulates the decision to go into a resistant dauer diapause, in which the worm exhibits a decreased rate of aging. Using sequence similarity searches, we previously identified the liver X receptor alpha (LXRalpha) as one of the human nuclear hormone receptors the protein sequence of which is most similar to C. elegans DAF-12. Here, we studied whether variation in the gene encoding LXRalpha associates with human life span. In the Leiden 85-Plus Study, a population-based prospective follow-up study, we genotyped four polymorphisms spanning the gene coding for LXRalpha (NR1H3) and tagged four common haplotypes. Among 563 participants, haplotype 2 associated with reduced mortality during the 7-year follow-up (hazard ratio 0.78; p =.015), predominantly caused by reduced mortality from infectious disease (hazard ratio 0.31; p =.023). Haplotype 2 also associated with higher levels of plasma apolipoprotein E, a target gene of the LXRalpha (p =.018), and higher levels of triglycerides (p =.041). Genetic variation in the gene coding for the LXRalpha (NR1H3) associates with human life span.