Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor Study Research Articles

A serological biomarker of type I collagen degradation is related to a more severe, high neutrophilic, obese asthma subtype

BackgroundAsthma is a heterogeneous disease; therefore, biomarkers that can assist in the identification of subtypes and direct therapy are highly desirable. Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease that leads to changes in the extracellular matrix (ECM) by matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) degradation causing fragments of type I collagen that is released into circulation.ObjectiveHere, we asked if MMP-generated type I collagen (C1M) was associated with subtypes of asthma.MethodsC1M was serologically assessed at baseline in the adult participants of the All Age Asthma study (ALLIANCE) (n = 233), and in The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor study (PERF) (n = 283). In addition, C1M was assessed in mice sensitized to ovalbumin (OVA) and challenged with OVA aerosol. C1M was evaluated in mice with and without acute neutrophilic inflammation provoked by poly(cytidylic-inosinic) acid and mice treated with CP17, a peptide inhibiting neutrophil accumulation.ResultsSerum C1M was significantly increased in asthmatics compared to healthy controls (p = 0.0005). We found the increased C1M levels in asthmatics were related to blood neutrophil and body mass index (BMI) in the ALLIANCE cohort, which was validated in the PERF cohort. When patients were stratified into obese (BMI > 30) asthmatics with high neutrophil levels and uncontrolled asthma, this group had a significant increase in C1M compared to normal-weight (BMI < 25) asthmatics with low neutrophil levels and controlled asthma (p = 0.0277). C1M was significantly elevated in OVA mice with acute neutrophilic inflammation compared to controls (P = 0.0002) and decreased in mice treated with an inhibitor of neutrophil infiltration (p = 0.047).Conclusion & clinical relevanceC1M holds the potential to identify a subtype of asthma that relates to severity, obesity, and high neutrophils. These data suggest that C1M is linked to a subtype of overall inflammation, not only derived from the lung. The link between C1M and neutrophils were further validated in in vivo model.Trial registration(ALLIANCE, NCT02419274).

1438-P: The Novel Extracellular Matrix Hormone Endotrophin, a Fragment of Collagen Type VI, Is Associated with Diabetes and Is a Risk Factor for Mortality in Elderly Women

As a result of the aging population and obesity, diabetes is a major, increasing public health issue approaching global epidemic proportions. It is well known that patients with diabetes have higher levels of inflammation and that the underlying pathology contributes to blood vessel damage resulting in cardiovascular complications. Recently it was suggested that a fragment of collagen type VI (COL VI), released during deposition, is in fact a novel hormone (endotrophin; ETP), suggesting the extracellular matrix (ECM) to be involved in the regulation of type 2 diabetes. In this study, we investigated the association of ETP (measured by the PRO-C6 ELISA) with diabetes and mortality in a large prospective cohort. From 1999-2001, 5855 postmenopausal women with a mean±SD age of 71±6.5 were included in the Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor study, and visits were planned according to a pre-defined protocol. The diagnoses for diabetes and mortality were extracted from the Danish Health Registries. We measured ETP in serum of 5608 women at baseline (samples collected from 1999-2001). ETP levels were measured in 2016. ETP levels were significantly elevated in women who died (p&amp;lt;0.0001). Additionally, we found that ETP levels were higher in women diagnosed with diabetes prior to baseline visit (n=206) compared to women diagnosed with diabetes after baseline (n=515, p=0.017), that ETP were higher in women with diabetes prior to baseline compared to healthy women (p&amp;lt;0.0001), and a trend of higher levels of ETP in women diagnosed with diabetes after baseline compared to healthy women (p=0.10). In conclusion, we demonstrate that the hormone ETP, a biomarker also reflecting COL VI deposition, was increased in serum of postmenopausal women with diabetes compared to healthy women. In addition, we show that ETP was associated with mortality, suggesting that turnover of the ECM is very important in metabolic disorders. Disclosure A. Møller: None. D.G.K. Rasmussen: Employee; Self; Nordic Bioscience. M.A. Karsdal: Stock/Shareholder; Self; Nordic Bioscience. C. Christiansen: None. L.M. Staunstrup: None. C.L. Bager: None. Funding Danish Research Foundation

Atrial fibrillation is associated with lean body mass in postmenopausal women

This study investigated the association between body composition and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in postmenopausal women. In a retrospective analysis we assessed data from 5704 postmenopausal women (age 70.7 ± 6.5 yrs.) who in 1999–2001 participated in The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor study with body composition assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Outcomes were obtained from Danish Health Registries and body composition association to risk of AF was evaluated by univariable and multivariable Cox Hazard regression. 850 women developed AF after baseline. High lean body mass was associated with increased risk of AF in multivariable analyses, adjusting for body mass index (BMI), height or weight (adjusted for: BMI, hazard ratio (HR) 1.49, 95% Confidence Interval (1.22–1.80); height, HR 1.27 (1.03–1.56); weight, 1.33 (1.06–1.65)). Height and weight were associated with increased risk of AF in multivariable analyses adjusting for body composition measures. When adjusting for total lean mass, only height remained statistically significant (HR 1.34 (1.09–1.64)). In a cohort of elderly Caucasian women, high lean body mass, height and weight were associated with increased risk of AF and the variables remained significant after adjusting for age and other known risk factors of AF.

Incidence of total hip and total knee replacements from the prospective epidemiologic risk factor study: considerations for event driven clinical trial design

BackgroundOsteoarthritis (OA) leads to joint failure and total joint replacement (TJR, either hip (H) or knee (K)). Worsening of pain and joint space narrowing are believed to be surrogates for joint failure; however, we hypothesize that TJR, as a reflection of joint failure, can be used as an endpoint in event-driven clinical trials within a reasonable duration. We explored the incidence of TJR in the Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor (PERF I) study.MethodsA total of 5855 Danish postmenopausal women aged 49–88 enrolled in the PERF I study during 1999–2001 (baseline). Three-, six- and twelve-year follow-up data from the Danish National Patient Registry was collected, including occurrence of TJR and OA diagnosis. At baseline the women were asked whether they had OA.ResultsThe women with a TJR diagnosis before or after baseline were on average 1 year older (p < 0.001) and heavier (p < 0.001), compared to women with no TJR. The 3-, 6- and 12-year cumulative incidences were 1.1, 2.4 and 6.0% for TKR, and 2.1, 4.4 and 9.3% for THR. For those with an OA diagnosis at baseline the respective incidences were 2.7, 5.6 and 11.7% and 3.9, 7.2 and 13.6%ConclusionsWithin 3, 6 or 12 years TJR incidences were double for women with an OA diagnosis compared to the all-comer population. TJRs are frequent amongst elderly women with OA and it is, therefore, feasible to conduct event-driven clinical trials where TJR is the endpoint demonstrating clinical benefit of a novel disease-modifying OA drug (DMOAD).

Incidence of Total Joint Replacements from the Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor Study: Considerations for Event Driven Clinical Trial Design

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) leads to joint failure and total joint replacement (TJR, either hip (H) or knee (K)). Worsening of pain and joint space narrowing are believed to be surrogates for joint failure; however, we hypothesize that TJR, as a reflection of joint failure, can be used as an endpoint in event-driven clinical trials within a reasonable duration. We explored the incidence of TJR in the Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor (PERF I) study. Methods: A total of 5,855 Danish postmenopausal women aged 49-88 enrolled in the PERF I study during 1999-2001 (baseline). Three-, six- and twelve-year follow-up data from the Danish National Patient Registry was collected, including occurrence of TJR and OA diagnosis. At baseline the women were asked whether they had OA. Findings: The TJR women were on average 1 year older (p<0.001) and heavier (p<0.001), compared to women with no TJR in the follow-up period. The 3-, 6- and 12-year cumulative incidences were 1.1, 2.4 and 6.0% for TKR, and 2.1, 4.4 and 9.3% for THR. For those with an OA diagnosis at baseline the respective incidences were 2.7, 5.6 and 11.7% and 3.9, 7.2 and 13.6%. Interpretation: Within 3, 6 or 12 years TJR incidences were double for women with an OA diagnosis compared to the all-comer population. TJRs are frequent amongst elderly women with OA and it is, therefore, feasible to conduct event-driven clinical trials where TJR is the endpoint demonstrating clinical benefit of a novel disease-modifying OA drug (DMOAD). Funding Statement: The Danish Research Foundation funded the PERF I study. Declaration of Interests: Bager is employed at ProScion. Karsdal, Bihlet, Thudium, Byrjalsen and Bay-Jensen are employed at Nordic Bioscience. Karsdal, Bihlet, and Bay-Jensen holds stocks in Nordic Bioscience. Ethics Approval Statement: The PERF I study was carried out in accordance with applicable regulatory and ethical guidelines, and the study protocol was approved by the local ethics committees. All participants signed an informed consent.

Two novel blood-based biomarker candidates measuring degradation of tau are associated with dementia: A prospective study

BackgroundTruncated tau appears to be specifically related to disease pathology and recent studies have shown the presence and elevation of several truncated tau species in Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of subjects with Alzheimer’s disease (AD); however, the relevance of truncated Tau measurements in blood is still being studied.ObjectiveThe aim of the current study was to assess the longitudinal associations between baseline levels of two novel blood biomarker candidates measuring truncated tau, Tau-A and Tau-C, and the risk of incident dementia and AD in elderly women.MethodsUsing solid phase competitive ELISA, two tau fragments were detected in serum of 5,309 women from the Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor study. The study was an observational, prospective study of Danish postmenopausal women. Subjects were followed with registry-linkage for up to 15 years (median follow-up time 13.7 years). Cox regression was used to assess the utility of the biomarker candidates in relation to dementia and AD.ResultsHigh levels of Tau-A and Tau-C (above the median) in blood were associated with lower risk of dementia and AD (Tau-A: Dementia HR[95% CI] = 0.85[0.70–1.04]; AD 0.71[0.52–0.98] and Tau-C: Dementia 0.84[0.70–1.00]; AD 0.78[0.60–1.03]). Tau-C gave a very modest increase in the AUC in a 5-year prediction horizon as compared to a reference model with age and education, while a combination of the two did not improve their predictive capacity.ConclusionsMeasurement of tau in serum is feasible. The serological tau turnover profile may be related to the diagnosis and development of dementia and AD. The exact processing and profile in serum in relation to cognitive disorders remains to be further assessed to provide simple non-invasive tests to identify subjects with progressive cognitive disorders.

Objective Cognitive Impairment and Progression to Dementia in Women: The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor Study.

Identification of subjects with a progressive disease phenotype is an urgent need in the pharmaceutical industry where most of the recent clinical trials in Alzheimer's disease have failed. The objective of this study was to identify subgroups of individuals with objective cognitive impairment (OCI), who were most likely to progress to dementia and to identify the risk factors associated with progression. Prospective cohort study. Population-based. 5,380 elderly women from Denmark. The Short Blessed Test and a category fluency test with animal naming, was used to assess cognitive function, and to classify them into different groups of OCI. OCI was identified in 852 subjects at baseline. The risk of dementia was elevated for OCI subjects as compared to subjects with normal cognition (HR 1.46[1.19-1.79]). The courses of OCI were studied in a sub-cohort who completed the cognitive assessment at both the baseline and the follow-up visit (n = 1,933). Of these subjects 203 had OCI at baseline. The multi-domain subtypes of OCI were associated with progressive OCI. Subjects most likely to progress were older, physically inactive, had a higher level of total cholesterol (>6.5 mmol/L) and had a history of depression as compared to subjects with a non-progressive course of OCI. In this cohort we identified a risk profile associated with progression from OCI in older women. The degree of impairment at baseline was an important predictor of conversion to dementia, additionally several modifiable risk factors were associated with progression.

Metabolic syndrome and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in elderly women: Challenging the current definition.

The prognostic value of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is believed to vary with age. With an elderly population expecting to triple by 2060, it is important to evaluate the validity of MetS in this age group. We examined the association of MetS risk factors with later risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in elderly Caucasian women. We further investigated if stratification of individuals not defined with MetS would add predictive power in defining future disease prevalence of individuals with MetS.The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor Study, a community-based cohort study, followed 3905 Danish women since 2000 (age: 70.1 ± 6.5) with no previous diagnosis of T2DM or CVD, holding all measurements used for MetS definition; central obesity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and hyperglycemia combined with register-based follow-up information.Elderly women with defined MetS presented a 6.3-fold increased risk of T2DM (95% confidence interval: [3.74-10.50]) and 1.7-fold increased risk of CVD (1.44-2.05) compared to women with no MetS risk factors. Subdividing the control group without defined MetS revealed that both centrally obese controls and controls holding other MetS risk factors also had increased risk of T2DM (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.21 [1.25-3.93] and HR = 1.75 [1.04-2.96]) and CVD (HR = 1.51 [1.25-1.83] and HR = 1.36 [1.15-1.60]) when compared to controls with no MetS risk factors.MetS in elderly Caucasian women increased risk of future T2DM and CVD. While not defined with MetS, women holding only some risk factors for MetS were also at increased risk of T2DM or CVD compared to women with no MetS risk factors.

Remodeling of the Tumor Microenvironment Predicts Increased Risk of Cancer in Postmenopausal Women: The Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor (PERF I) Study.

An altered tumor microenvironment is one of the earliest signs of cancer and an important driver of the disease. We have seen previously that biomarkers reflecting tumor microenvironment modifications, such as matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-degraded type 1 collagen (C1M), MMP-degraded type IV collagen (C4M), and citrullinated and MMP-degraded vimentin (VICM), were higher in the serum of cancer patients than in healthy controls. However, it is not known if these biomarkers could predict an increased risk of cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate whether C1M, C4M, and VICM were elevated prior to diagnosis of solid cancers in a large prospective study. Between 1999 and 2001, 5,855 postmenopausal Danish women ages 48 to 89 years enrolled in the Prospective Epidemiologic Risk Factor study. Baseline demographics and serum were collected at the time of registration. Follow up cancer diagnoses were obtained from the Danish Cancer Registry in 2014. Serum C1M, C4M, and VICM levels were measured by competitive ELISAs. A total of 881 women were diagnosed with solid cancers after baseline. C1M, C4M, and VICM levels were significantly elevated in women diagnosed less than 1 year after baseline. C1M and VICM, but not C4M, were independent predictors of increased risk of cancer. C1M, C4M, and VICM are elevated prior to cancer diagnosis. C1M and VICM are both independent predictors of increased cancer risk. C1M and VICM are predictors for increased risk of cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(9); 1348-55. ©2016 AACR.