Prospective Assessment Research Articles

Three-dimensional reservoir modeling of the pliocene reservoir based on seismic data advances for new prospect assessment

This study presents a comprehensive characterization of the Pliocene reservoir formation in the Temsah gas field, located 65 km NNW of Port Said in the northeastern Nile Delta Basin. The research integrates seismic data with well log analysis to enhance reservoir characterization. The Temsah gas field is distinguished by its intricate geological structure, featuring numerous normal faults oriented along northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast trends. The field’s stratigraphy is predominantly composed of sandstone and shale facies, which are considered highly prospective for hydrocarbon accumulation. A full geological field analysis was conducted to identify key prospects for enhancing productivity. To accurately delineate seismic features, data from four wells and twenty-nine 2D seismic lines were interpreted. Depth maps of the reservoir layers were constructed, highlighting critical transitions between sandstone and shale facies, which are pivotal for future exploration efforts. A detailed 3D static model was developed to illustrate the impact of lithological composition on reservoir characteristics, with a specific focus on the Upper Sand of Kafr El-Sheikh Formation. Petrophysical properties, including effective porosity (13–23%), shale content (7–31%), and water saturation (30–45%), were meticulously evaluated to inform the creation of a robust 3D property model. This model provides a detailed spatial distribution of rock facies and petrophysical parameters within the Temsah gas field. The integration of these studies identified two promising areas, with estimated original gas in place (OGIP) ranging from 2.86 to 4.04 stock cubic feet (SCF), indicating significant potential for field development and enhancement.

Depth filtration of dredged sediments via reduced iron driving persulfate sodium activation: Perspectives from technical viability, potential mechanism, and prospect assessment

The existing single-use conditioning agents for dredged sediments (DS) treatment were confronted with problems such as high cost, insufficient efficiency, or potential toxicity. The study, for the first time, utilized a heterogeneous process of reduced iron (RI)/Persulfate sodium (PS) to deeply filter DS and further uncovered the potential mechanism as well as raised the application prospect. The results showed that after 120 mg/g TSS RI with 40 mg/g TSS PS treatment, the water content (WC) of DS dropped from 75.4% (Blank) to 41.6%, which is obviously lower than that of traditional flocculant-treated DS reported. Mechanistic probe indicated that the strengthened filterability of DS is likely evoked by the sulfate radical (SO4●-)/hydroxyl radical (•OH) with the ferrous/ferric substances generated from RI/PS process. SO4●-/•OH damaged extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) along with their major ingredients and possibly disturbed cellulate physiology of DS, which further promoted the dissociation/liberation of bound-water and strengthened a trend toward fluidization but declined the hydrophilicity and stickiness of DS. Moreover, SO4●-/•OH may evoke the proteins conformation to unfold the hydrophobic spots, promoting the escape of untied water also. By extruding the electric-double layers and lowing the negative charge, Ferrous and/or ferric substances promotes the re-aggregation of disrupted DS particles, which potentially leads to the formation of dense & stable flocs through interaction of ferric substances with carboxyl and hydroxyl functional groups in DS, thus facilitating bound-water removal. The findings here not only deepen our understandings upon mechanisms of heterogeneous AOPs conditioning DS filterability but also offer a promising approach for DS treatment in the fields of solid waste management and water environment remediation.

Extent and survival of zoned pyroxene within intrusions hosting magmatic sulfides: Implications for zoned pyroxene as a prospectivity indicator

AbstractChromium-zoning patterns in pyroxene from the economically significant Ni-Cu sulfide deposits at Nova-Bollinger (Western Australia) and Kevitsa (Northern Finland) were investigated using XRF mapping, automated mineralogy, and EPMA analyses. At Nova-Bollinger, complex Cr-zoning patterns are found widely throughout the cumulus orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene within the Lower Intrusion, a small chonolith that hosts the vast extent of the sulfide mineralisation. Cumulus pyroxenes with visible sector and abrupt zonation patterns have been found up to 150 m vertically away from the massive sulfide ore. Complex zoning patterns are observed throughout the Kevitsa intrusion, in the form of strong oscillatory zoning in cumulus clinopyroxene and sector zoning in idiomorphic orthopyroxene oikocrysts. Kevitsa pyroxenes show varying degrees of hydration, leading to epitaxial replacement by amphibole. Cr zonation is visible through the early stages of this alteration, with preservation enabled by the presence of Cr-rich epitaxial amphibole; however, the remnant zoning is lost as the amphibole alteration progresses. Results suggest that Cr zonation in pyroxene may be an effective indicator of dynamic recharged conduits and therefore an indicator of favourable conditions for metal enriched magmatic sulfide ore formation. Such indicators have significant vertical extent from the ore body and can survive partial alteration, which makes them a useful tool for prospectivity assessment of drilled intrusions. Furthermore, our data show that there is potential for complexly zoned pyroxene to be used as an ex-situ prospectivity indicator in glacial till.

Zircon and Whole-Rock Trace Element Indicators of Magmatic Hydration State and Oxidation State Discriminate Copper Ore-Forming from Barren Arc Magmas

Abstract To meet surging requirements of copper for the green energy revolution, minable resources subequal to all copper production in history must be found in the next two decades. We show that trace elements in zircon and whole-rock samples that are diagnostic of unusually high-pressure magmatic differentiation and high hydration state and oxidation state of their parent silicate melt are effective for discriminating copper sulfide-ore-productive arc magmas from infertile arc magmas. Tests on our database of 5,777 zircons from 80 igneous complexes, including 2,220 zircons from ore-generative intrusions in 37 major porphyry and high-sulfidation epithermal Cu(-Au-Mo) deposits worldwide, demonstrate that our magmatic copper fertility discriminants apparently perform equally well in intraoceanic arcs, continental margin arcs, and continental collision orogens of Ordovician to Quaternary age. That performance consistency means that the tectono-magmatic controls on development of magmatic-hydrothermal copper ore-forming fertility are essentially the same in all those plate-convergence settings. The ratio Ce/√(U × Ti) in zircon is a quantitative indicator of the relative oxygen fugacity of the silicate melt and its sulfur-carrying capacity. The ratio of the europium anomaly to ytterbium in granitoid melts and zircon is an uncalibrated but empirically useful indicator of the melt’s hydration state and ability to provide chloride-complexed metals to exsolving hydrothermal fluids. Plots of (EuN/Eu*)/YbN vs. Ce/√(U × Ti) in zircon are remarkably effective for discriminating igneous complexes, arc segments, and time intervals within them that can generate and are likely to host magmatic-hydrothermal Cu(-Au-Mo) ore deposits. Arrays of cognate zircons on such plots have slopes that vary with pressure-dependent chlorinity of exsolving fluid and its efficacy in scavenging CuCl from the melt. Our zircon indicators of Cu metallogenic fertility are applicable to detrital as well as in situ zircons and can assist with ore discovery in watersheds upstream from a sediment sampling site. We formulated a composite zircon copper fertility index (ZCFI) that can be applied to each microbeam spot analysis—ZCFI = 104 (EuN/EuN*)/YbN + 5 Ce/√(Ui × Ti)—and substantially decreases the number of zircon analyses needed for reliable prospectivity assessment in a detrital grain population, thereby making this watershed-scale exploration tool cost-competitive with other methods of geochemical exploration.

Assessment of the application prospects of reverse vaccinology in vaccine development

Reverse vaccinology (RV) is a groundbreaking approach that uses bioinformatics and sequencing techniques to identify and design vaccines that target specific antigen epitopes. Compared to traditional methods, RV is faster, more specific, and potentially safer. It expedites antigen identification, optimizes antigen selection, and enhances vaccine design through computer-assisted epitope selection and linker optimization. RV offers advantages in terms of cost-effectiveness and safety by reducing the need for complex procedures and animal immunization. It has been successfully applied in the development of vaccines for various diseases, including SARS-CoV-2 and HPV. Challenges remain, but RVs efficiency, specificity, and potential cost savings position it as a powerful tool in global vaccine development efforts. Continued research and innovation in antigen optimization, epitope design, linker selection, safety considerations, and collaboration will further enhance RVs potential for tackling existing and emerging diseases. Overall, RV revolutionizes vaccine development, offering a promising approach to improve global health outcomes.

Safety and quality of cystectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection after neoadjuvant durvalumab and cisplatin/gemcitabine.

To report on the surgical safety and quality of pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) in patients treated with radical cystectomy (RC) and PLND for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) after neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy. The Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK) 06/17 was an open-label single-arm phase II trial including 61 cisplatin-fit patients with clinical stage (c)T2-T4a cN0-1 operable urothelial MIBC or upper urinary tract cancer. Patients received neoadjuvant cisplatin/gemcitabine and durvalumab followed by surgery. Prospective quality assessment of surgeries was performed via central review of intraoperative photographs. Postoperative complications were assessed using the Clavien-Dindo Classification. Data were analysed descriptively. A total of 50 patients received RC and PLND. All patients received neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy. The median (interquartile range) number of lymph nodes removed was 29 (23-38). No intraoperative complications were registered. Grade ≥III postoperative complications were reported in 12 patients (24%). Complete nodal dissection (100%) was performed at the level of the obturator fossa (bilaterally) and of the left external iliac region; in 49 patients (98%) at the internal iliac region and at the right external iliac region; in 39 (78%) and 38 (76%) patients at the right and left presacral level, respectively. This study supports the surgical safety of RC and PLND following neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy in patients with MIBC. The extent and completeness of protocol-defined PLND varies between patients, highlighting the need to communicate and monitor the surgical template.

Using emerging science to inform risk characterizations for wildlife within current regulatory frameworks.

Many jurisdictions have regulatory frameworks that seek to reduce the effects of environmental exposures of anthropogenic chemicals on terrestrial wildlife (i.e., mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians). The frameworks apply for new and existing chemicals, including pesticides (prospective assessments), and to environmental contamination from releases (retrospective risk assessments). Relatively recently, there have been many scientific advances that could improve risk estimates for wildlife. Here, we briefly describe current regulations from North America (United States and Canada) and from Europe that include risk assessments for wildlife to ascertain whether they are conducive to the use of emerging science and new methods. We also provide examples where new and emerging science may be used to improve wildlife risk characterization and identify areas in need of future research. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:765-779. © 2024 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management © 2024 Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

India’s Foreign Policy during Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee

This paper examines Indian foreign policy under Atal Bihari Vajpayee in terms of realistic pluralism. It argues that since the 1998 nuclear test, India has developed a slightly different style of realistic foreign policy as a means to achieve its core interests. It is characterized by an emphasis on engagement with contemporary challenges such as neoliberal globalization, terrorism, the issue of disarmament, coping with the changing international order, the decline of multilateral institutions, and new regionalism, etc. To deal with all these issues, India adopted realistic pluralism to accelerate India's economic development and security interests, as well as enhance its status as an emerging power in the international system by continuously promoting its cherished values. This paper explains how a party with its rightist ideology occupies power at a time when Congress fails to deliver people's aspirations. It analyses the key arguments that have been presented in this framework and the way Bajpayee put them into practice. It concludes with the assessment of Bajpayee strategies and future prospects that it will deliver for Indian foreign policy.

Prospective Assessment of Fluorine-18-Fluorodeoxyglucose-Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (FDG-PET/CT) for Early Identification of Checkpoint-Inhibitor-Induced Pseudoprogression.

The activity of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in patients with metastatic melanoma is often monitored using fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) scans. However, distinguishing disease progression (PD) from pseudoprogression (PsPD), where increased FDG uptake might reflect immune cell activity rather than tumor growth, remains a challenge. This prospective study compared the efficacy of dual-time point (DTP) FDG-PET/CT with modified response criteria (PERCIMT) in differentiating PsPD from PD. From July 2017-January 2021, 41 patients suspected to have PsPD on an evaluation scan were prospectively included (29 evaluable). A subsequent DTP FDG-PET/CT scan was conducted within 14 days, followed by a confirmatory FDG-PET/CT scan. Additionally, PERCIMT were applied. DTP FDG-PET/CT identified 24% with PsPD and 76% with PD. Applying PERCIMT criteria, 69% showed PsPD, while 31% had PD. On follow-up, 10 patients (34%) demonstrated confirmed PsPD, while 19 (66%) exhibited PD. The sensitivity and specificity of DTP FDG-PET/CT were 20% and 74%, respectively, and for PERCIMT this was 80% and 37%, respectively. Our findings suggest limited efficacy of DTP FDG-PET/CT in distinguishing PsPD from PD in ICI-treated patients with metastatic melanoma. The use of PERCIMT could complement clinical assessment and be incorporated in multidisciplinary team conferences for enhanced decision-making.

CAGI, the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation, establishes progress and prospects for computational genetic variant interpretation methods

BackgroundThe Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) aims to advance the state-of-the-art for computational prediction of genetic variant impact, particularly where relevant to disease. The five complete editions of the CAGI community experiment comprised 50 challenges, in which participants made blind predictions of phenotypes from genetic data, and these were evaluated by independent assessors.ResultsPerformance was particularly strong for clinical pathogenic variants, including some difficult-to-diagnose cases, and extends to interpretation of cancer-related variants. Missense variant interpretation methods were able to estimate biochemical effects with increasing accuracy. Assessment of methods for regulatory variants and complex trait disease risk was less definitive and indicates performance potentially suitable for auxiliary use in the clinic.ConclusionsResults show that while current methods are imperfect, they have major utility for research and clinical applications. Emerging methods and increasingly large, robust datasets for training and assessment promise further progress ahead.

Life cycle assessment as a prospective tool for sustainable agriculture and food planning at a local level

Owing to the far-reaching environmental consequences of agriculture and food systems, such as their contribution to climate change, there is an urgent need to reduce their impact. International and national governments set sustainability targets and implement corresponding measures. Nevertheless, critics of the globalized system claim that a territorial administrative scale is better suited to address sustainability issues. Yet, at the sub-national level, local authorities rarely apply a systemic environmental assessment to enhance their action plans. This paper employs a territorial life cycle assessment methodology to improve local environmental agri-food planning. The objective is to identify significant direct and indirect environmental hotspots, their origins, and formulate effective mitigation strategies. The methodology is applied to the administrative department of Finistere, a strategic agricultural region in North-Western France. Multiple environmental criteria including climate change, fossil resource scarcity, toxicity, and land use are modeled. The findings reveal that the primary environmental hotspots of the studied local food system arise from indirect sources, such as livestock feed or diesel consumption. Livestock reduction and organic farming conversion emerge as the most environmentally efficient strategies, resulting in a 25% decrease in the climate change indicator. However, the overall modeled impact reduction is insufficient following national objectives and remains limited for the land use indicator. These results highlight the innovative application of life cycle assessment led at a local level, offering insights for the further advancement of systematic and prospective local agri-food assessment. Additionally, they provide guidance for local authorities to enhance the sustainability of planning strategies.

Cohort profile: the British Columbia COVID-19 Cohort (BCC19C)-a dynamic, linked population-based cohort.

The British Columbia COVID-19 Cohort (BCC19C) was developed from an innovative, dynamic surveillance platform and is accessed/analyzed through a cloud-based environment. The platform integrates recently developed provincial COVID-19 datasets (refreshed daily) with existing administrative holdings and provincial registries (refreshed weekly/monthly). The platform/cohort were established to inform the COVID-19 response in near "real-time" and to answer more in-depth epidemiologic questions. The surveillance platform facilitates the creation of large, up-to-date analytic cohorts of people accessing COVID-19 related services and their linked medical histories. The program of work focused on creating/analyzing these cohorts is referred to as the BCC19C. The administrative/registry datasets integrated within the platform are not specific to COVID-19 and allow for selection of "control" individuals who have not accessed COVID-19 services. The platform has vastly broadened the range of COVID-19 analyses possible, and outputs from BCC19C analyses have been used to create dashboards, support routine reporting and contribute to the peer-reviewed literature. Published manuscripts (total of 15 as of July, 2023) have appeared in high-profile publications, generated significant media attention and informed policy and programming. In this paper, we conducted an analysis to identify sociodemographic and health characteristics associated with receiving SARS-CoV-2 laboratory testing, testing positive, and being fully vaccinated. Other published analyses have compared the relative clinical severity of different variants of concern; quantified the high "real-world" effectiveness of vaccines in addition to the higher risk of myocarditis among younger males following a 2nd dose of an mRNA vaccine; developed and validated an algorithm for identifying long-COVID patients in administrative data; identified a higher rate of diabetes and healthcare utilization among people with long-COVID; and measured the impact of the pandemic on mental health, among other analyses. While the global COVID-19 health emergency has ended, our program of work remains robust. We plan to integrate additional datasets into the surveillance platform to further improve and expand covariate measurement and scope of analyses. Our analyses continue to focus on retrospective studies of various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as prospective assessment of post-acute COVID-19 conditions and other impacts of the pandemic.

Physical activity and menopausal symptoms: evaluating the contribution of obesity, fitness, and ambient air pollution status.

The menopausal transition is accompanied by transient symptoms that have been linked to subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD); CVD has also been linked to air pollution. Physical activity (PA) reduces CVD, improves body composition, and can reduce menopausal symptoms. The purpose of this study was to assess the links between PA and menopausal symptoms and whether obesity, fitness, and air pollution status play a role in this relationship. Women (40-60 y; N = 243; mean [SD] age, 47.8 [5.6] y) from areas with high versus low air pollution enrolled in the Healthy Aging in Industrial Environment Program 4 prospective cohort study completed psychological, cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, and menopausal status screening followed by a 14-day prospective assessment of menopausal symptoms (Menopause Rating Scale) using a mobile application. Daily PA was assessed objectively across 14 days via Fitbit Charge 3 monitor. General linear mixed models were conducted and controlled for age, menopausal status, day in the study, wear time, and neuroticism. Peri/postmenopausal women ( β = 0.43, P < 0.001) and those residing in a high-air-pollution environment ( β = 0.45, P < 0.05) reported more somatovegetative symptoms. Hot flashes alone were associated with peri/postmenopausal status ( β = 0.45, P < 0.001), and for women residing in a high-air-pollution environment, lower reporting of hot flashes was observed on days when a woman was more physically active than usual ( β = -0.15, P < 0.001). No associations were found for cardiorespiratory fitness and visceral fat with any of the symptoms. PA may enhance resilience to hot flashes, especially when residing in high-air-pollution environments where we also observed higher reporting of somatovegetative menopausal symptoms.

Integrating the functions and structures to assess ecological network sustainability under climate change scenarios

ContextDeveloping ecological networks (ENs) is a widely acknowledged conservation strategy for mitigating habitat fragmentation and ecosystem degradation. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the sustainability of the ENs before or after their development in order to maintain their functions and ecosystem service. While most previous studies have explored ENs based on ecosystem service evaluation and structure construction, the functions and structures of EN have rarely been integrally assessed under climate change scenarios.ObjectiveTaking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the study area, we aim to assess the future sustainability of the current EN under multiple climate change scenarios by integrating its functions and structures.MethodsTen scenarios were constructed, including a current scenario and nine future climate scenarios. Ecological sources were derived from the importance of the ecosystem service, and were used to develop EN by using the Linkage mapper toolbox. We then used the range difference between current and future ecological sources to indicate the functional sustainability of the current EN. The NetworkX was used to assess the EN structural stability by integrating the EN functional sustainability.ResultsThe capacity of 6.23% of the current ecological sources is projected to decline in efficiently providing ecosystem services by 2050 under the selected nine future climate scenarios, and these functional degradations will also lead to a 33.55% decrease in the EN structural stability. Poor, low, and medium functional sustainable sources will be mostly located in forests and water bodies of the central YRDUA with a small average patch area, while high functional sustainable sources will be mainly distributed in the southwestern mountainous regions and water areas in the north-central region with a larger average patch area.ConclusionOur study provides a prospective assessment of EN, which is particularly crucial for enhancing ecological strategies and ensuring landscape sustainability. Constructing future climate scenarios and integrally assessing EN functional sustainability and structural stability can provide effective information for long-term EN management.

When tomorrow comes: A prospective risk assessment of a future artificial general intelligence-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system

There are concerns that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could pose an existential threat to humanity; however, as AGI does not yet exist it is difficult to prospectively identify risks and develop requisite controls. We applied the Work Domain Analysis Broken Nodes (WDA-BN) and Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork-Broken Links (EAST-BL) methods to identify potential risks in a future ‘envisioned world’ AGI-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system. The findings suggest five main categories of risk in this context: sub-optimal performance risks, goal alignment risks, super-intelligence risks, over-control risks, and enfeeblement risks. Two of these categories, goal alignment risks and super-intelligence risks, have not previously been encountered or dealt with in conventional safety management systems. Whereas most of the identified sub-optimal performance risks can be managed through existing defence design lifecycle processes, we propose that work is required to develop controls to manage the other risks identified. These include controls on AGI developers, controls within the AGI itself, and broader sociotechnical system controls.

Managing investment attractiveness of a company during a period of high market volatility based on forecasting expectations

Evaluation of efficiency of economic and financial activities is primarily based on the financial performance of a company. In the context of the joint-stock companies’ activities, special importance belongs to timely or premature assessment of financial prospects of the activities for increasing the profit and potential of the company. To achieve the goals, it is extremely important to objectively evaluate the elements of innovative strategy of the company considering both internal and external influence as well as the company’s unique circumstances. While assessing a specific situation it is essential to take into account both innovative environment and position and its innovative potential. Financial coefficients which allow analysis of performance are used as the assessment criteria for financial condition. The study in hand suggests creation of a high-precision model based on the variability of statistical forecasting techniques followed by a thorough assessment to identify factors that objectively influence the company’s investment attractiveness. At the initial stage the authors calculated 40 financial indicators of the company quarterly over a seven-year period, and 10 factors of the external environment which were used later for conducting the multicorrelation analysis to select the most correlating with the leading one. This was the share price represented by binary code, where 0 indicates a decrease and 1 indicates an increase. A combination of approaches such as regression analysis, Gaussian processes, cumulative perspective theory and the method of constructing vector measures allowed increasing the accuracy of the model from 89 to 96.7% and identify the basic indicators which could be useful in forecasting the investment attractiveness of the company such as the share of net working capital in assets, the level of real income of the population and return on capital employed.

Shale gas play of the silurian hot shale, Ghadames Basin, North Africa: Insights from integrated geochemistry and basin modeling

The lower Silurian hot shale in the Ghadames Basin was investigated to provide a regional assessment of the future prospects of shale gas play as an important unconventional resource system in one of the top African superglobal petroliferous sedimentary basins. The unconventional natural gas potential of the hot shale was studied based on regional improved organofacies assessment, thermal maturity, the timing of generation and expulsion, and sweet gas spot analysis, such as gas in place (GIP), total expelled gas (TEG), and total retained gas (TRG). The integration between regional geology and organic geochemistry, together with the proper regional utilization of the multi-dimensional basin modeling to better appreciate the importance of the Silurian hot shale as a key future shale gas unconventional-rich petroleum system (URPS) in the Ghadames Basin. The relationship between the richness and thermal parameters, such as the total organic carbon indicator (%TOC), hydrogen index (HI), measured and time step (calibrated models) vitrinite and equivalent vitrinite (%VRo) reflectance were used to develop quality control models for the regional natural gas spots of the Silurian hot shale were present-day mapping presentations are utilized as well for each parameter to better appreciate the lateral variability of the dry gas volumes. Regional basin control parameters from several key wells, such as heat flow levels, formation pressure system, and basin porosity were successfully utilized for the hot shale gas play resource screening (sweet spots) study utilizing multi-dimensional modeling approaches. The established regional spatial type B marine organofacies of the hot shale with excellent geochemical properties (∼18 %TOC) and regionally sufficient thermal maturation (∼2.45 %VRo, post-mature stage) indicate a significant amount of natural gas expelled and retained that has occurred in the Silurian hot shale system. The estimated GIP of the hot shale is about 120 bcf/km2 (equivalent to 320 bcf/section). The maximum expelled gas (TEG) amount is defined with values up to 88 bcf/section and the total estimated volume of the retained gas (TRG) is up to 96 bcf/km2, with the current geological architecture, geochemical properties, volumes, and distribution of the hot shale dry gas sweet spot in the Ghadames Basin. The hot shale can be considered in the near future for extensive further studies and exploration and development plans in Libya, Algeria, or Tunisia.

Safety of ventricular arrhythmia radiofrequency ablation with half-normal saline irrigation.

Failure of radiofrequency (RF) ablation of ventricular arrhythmias is often due to inadequate lesion size. Irrigated RF ablation with half-normal saline (HNS) has the potential to increase lesion size and reduce sodium delivery to the patient if the same volume of RF irrigant were used for normal saline (NS) and HNS but could increase risks related to steam pops and lesion size. This study aims to assess periprocedural complications and acute ablation outcome of ventricular arrhythmias ablation with HNS. Prospective assessment of outcomes was performed in 1024 endocardial and/or epicardial RF ablation procedures in 935 consecutive patients (median age 64 years, 71.2% men, 73.4% cardiomyopathy, 47.2% sustained ventricular tachycardia). Half-normal saline was selected at the discretion of the treating physician. Radiofrequency ablation power was generally titrated to a ≤15 Ω impedance fall with intracardiac echocardiography monitoring. Half-normal saline was used in 900 (87.9%) and NS in 124 (12.1%) procedures. Any adverse event within 30 days occurred in 13.0% of patients treated with HNS RF ablation including 4 (0.4%) strokes/transient ischaemic attacks and 34 (3.8%) pericardial effusions requiring treatment (mostly related to epicardial access). Two steam pops with perforation required surgical repair (0.2%). Patients who received NS irrigation had less severe disease and arrhythmias. In multivariable models, adverse events and acute success of the procedure were not related to the type of irrigation. Half-normal saline irrigation RF ablation with power guided by impedance fall and intracardiac echocardiography has an acceptable rate of complications and acute ablation success while administering half of the saline load expected for NS irrigation.

Prospective assessments of the implementation of marketing tools in the sales activities of agribusiness enterprises

The article aims to reveal the specifics of the marketing activities of agrarian enterprises, considering marketing approaches to their management. Differences in the definitions of the terms «sales,» «sales activity,» «sales policy,» «sales activity management system,» and «sales activity management» were revealed. It has been established that «sales» and «sales activity» are interchangeable concepts. It has been proven that the marketing activity of agricultural enterprises has its own characteristics, which are primarily determined by the specifics of products, the sales market, and the state of production systems. It was noted that the implementation of the marketing policy of agricultural enterprises is negatively affected by several factors, most of which are related to the inherited problems of domestic agriculture, in particular, the underdevelopment of logistics, price disparity, and low quality of agricultural raw materials etc. Differences in the organization of agricultural production are also projected on enterprises' sales activities, particularly the architecture of their sales channels. It was established that, compared to 1991, the volume of crop production in Ukraine during 2014-2022 increased (except factory sugar beets), while livestock production decreased. Agricultural products' production and sale volumes during 2014...2021 did not undergo significant changes. In 2022, the production volume of the main types of agricultural products decreased, which relates to the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the rf into Ukraine. Prices for all main types of agricultural products in the studied period tend to increase. It was found that there is a conflict of interest between the value chain participants, primarily because each has their commercial interests, which are maximizing profits at the expense of minimizing costs. It is recommended that direct marketing methods using the potential of social networks and the Internet be implemented to ensure a high-income level for representatives of agrarian businesses. Keywords: sales, sales activity of agricultural enterprises, marketing tools, distribution channels, value chain.

Thyroid Function Screening among First- and Second-Degree Healthy Asymptomatic Relatives of Patients with Hashimoto’s Thyroiditis

Objective:: Assessment of thyroid dysfunction among relatives of patients diagnosed with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis is controversial due to the lack of evidence. Screening and prediction of thyroid dysfunction among first- and second-degree relatives (FDRs and SDRs) of patients were diagnosed with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis. Materials and Methods:: Three hundred and forty-six asymptomatic relatives of 97 patients diagnosed with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis were enrolled in mixed cross-sectional and prospective assessments for thyroid dysfunction over more than two years (September 2018-December 2020). Both FDR and SDR were evaluated by thyrotropin (TSH) and thyroid ultrasound at enrollment. Individuals with abnormal TSH were thoroughly evaluated biochemically and were subsequently classified as euthyroid, subclinical, and overt thyroid dysfunctional. The future reversion of enrolled individuals with normal and subclinical thyroid function to overt dysfunction was predicted by using the Thyroid Event Amsterdam (THEA) score. Results:: Three-quarters of the participants were non-smoking married women. Thyroid dysfunction was diagnosed among 43% of the participants (n=150), of whom two-thirds (74%) were having overt dysfunction (n=111). Neither the demographic elements nor the initial thyroid function could predict the future thyroid function among those participants. Two out of ten (16%) were having autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) as part of familial clustering (n=56). Four participants with subclinical hypothyroidism were treated accordingly due to their high THEA score despite the global lower THEA score (5.00±0.44). Conclusion:: Screening of asymptomatic relatives of patients diagnosed with Hashimoto's thyroiditis could help identify the familial background of thyroid diseases in 43% of FDRs and SDRs. One-third may have an underlying autoimmune basis.