Dispersal and establishment dynamics are critical in understanding shifts in species’ ranges. We seek to illuminate patch-level dispersal dynamics by examining the shifting salt marsh-mangrove ecotone. Specifically, we ask the following: (1) How are mangrove propagules dispersed, retained, and exported within a discrete patch? (2) How do differences across a flooding gradient influence propagule dispersal dynamics? (3) How does the distribution of established seedlings compare to propagule movements? Avicennia germinans is the most temperate mangrove species in the northern Gulf of Mexico forming an ecotone with Spartina alterniflora marshes in coastal Louisiana. Sets of 500 distinctively marked mangrove propagules were placed at five different elevations. After their release, we observed dispersal dynamics for 1 month. Retention was limited in the study area (< 10%) with ~ 70–80% of propagules exporting out of the system and ~ 20% propagule predation. Retained propagules largely remained at their original elevations and were generally found at the highest elevation. Seedling establishment was also studied and unlike propagule dispersal distributions, peak seedling density occurred at elevations flooded 20–40% of the time. Our study highlights the mass export of mangrove propagules, the disparity between dispersal and establishment dynamics, and the need to explore dispersal at biologically relevant temporal and patch-level spatial scales. By understanding dispersal and establishment dynamics within the ecotonal boundary, we provide one of the first studies on dispersal at a temperature-controlled latitudinal limit for mangroves and highlight some of the drivers needed to better connect plot-, patch-, and landscape-level dynamics at this and other range limits.
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