Projected Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

The Present and Future of the Use Phase of Social Housing in Tucumán, Argentina: An LCA Perspective

This research focuses on assessing the environmental impact of heating and cooling systems in public housing projects, built between 2000 and 2020, in Tucuman, Argentina. It considers current and projected climate change scenarios. The study compares existing conditions with improvements suggested by IRAM 11603 for a thermo-energetic transition. Anticipating future energy consumption changes is vital for proposing sustainable retrofitting options to enhance affordability and energy efficiency, while ensuring occupants’ thermal comfort. A public housing prototype in Tucumán serves as the case study. The methodology combines energy simulation and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to analyze current and future energy demands. The results show climate change’s potential impact on housing thermal behavior and the necessity for improvements. In the base case, cooling demand exceeds 11 kWh/m2·year, while heating demand decreases by approximately 4 kWh/m2·year. Rehabilitation could reduce cooling demand by 57% and heating demand by 32.5%, considering future climate scenarios. Active architectural strategies are proposed for enhancing thermal performance and reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This study underscores the importance of analyzing future scenarios and implementing strategies for the thermo-energetic transition of existing social housing.

Hydro-geochemical conditions under projected climate change scenarios of Marshyangdi River, Nepal

Hydro-geochemical conditions under projected climate change scenarios of Marshyangdi River, Nepal

Impact of predicted climate change environmental conditions on the growth of Fusarium asiaticum strains and mycotoxins production on a wheat-based matrix

Fusarium asiaticum is a predominant fungal pathogen causing Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) in wheat and barley in China and is associated with approximately £201 million in annual losses due to grains contaminated with mycotoxins. F. asiaticum produces deoxynivalenol and zearalenone whose maximum limits in cereals and cereals-derived products have been established in different countries including the EU. Few studies are available on the ecophysiological behaviour of this fungal pathogen, but nothing is known about the impact of projected climate change scenarios on its growth and mycotoxin production. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the interacting effect of i) current and increased temperature (25 vs 30 °C), ii) drought stress variation (0.98 vs 0.95 water activity; aw) and iii) existing and predicted CO2 concentrations (400 vs 1000 ppm) on fungal growth and mycotoxin production (type B trichothecenes and zearalenone) by three F. asiaticum strains (CH024b, 82, 0982) on a wheat-based matrix after 10 days of incubation. The results showed that, when exposed to increased CO2 concentration (1000 ppm) there was a significant reduction of fungal growth compared to current concentration (400 ppm) both at 25 and 30 °C, especially at 0.95 aw. The multi-mycotoxin analysis performed by LC-MS/MS qTRAP showed a significant increase of deoxynivalenol and 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol production when the CH024b strain was exposed to elevated CO2 compared to current CO2 levels. Zearalenone production by the strain 0982 was significantly stimulated by mild water stress (0.95 aw) and increased CO2 concentration (1000 ppm) regardless of the temperature. Such results highlight that intraspecies variability exist among F. asiaticum strains with some mycotoxins likely to exceed current EU legislative limits under prospected climate change conditions.

Diverse projected climate change scenarios affect the physiology of broccoli plants to different extents.

Climate change caused by global warming involves crucial plant growth factors such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, ambient temperature or water availability. These stressors usually co-occur, causing intricate alterations in plant physiology and development. This work focuses on how elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, together with the concomitant high temperature, would affect the physiology of a relevant crop, such as broccoli. Particular attention has been paid to those defence mechanisms that contribute to plant fitness under abiotic stress. Results show that both photosynthesis and leaf transpiration were reduced in plants grown under climate change environments compared to those grown under current climate conditions. Furthermore, an induction of carbohydrate catabolism pointed to a redistribution from primary to secondary metabolism. This result could be related to a reinforcement of cell walls, as well as to an increase in the pool of antioxidants in the leaves. Broccoli plants, a C3 crop, grown under an intermediate condition showed activation of those adaptive mechanisms, which would contribute to coping with abiotic stress, as confirmed by reduced levels of lipid peroxidation relative to current climate conditions. On the contrary, the most severe climate change scenario exceeded the adaptive capacity of broccoli plants, as shown by the inhibition of growth and reduced vigour of plants. In conclusion, only a moderate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature would not have a negative impact on broccoli crop yields.

Multi-trait efficiency and interactivity of bacterial consortia used to enhance plant performance under water stress conditions

Water stress is a major limiting factor for agricultural production under current and projected climate change scenarios. As a sustainable strategy, plant growth-promoting bacterial consortia have been used to reduce plant water stress. However, few studies have examined the effects of stress on multi-trait efficiency and interactivity of bacterial species. In this study, we used several in-vitro experiments, plant assays and greenhouse trials to investigate the effects of stress and bacterial consortia on 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid deaminase (ACCD) activities, indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) production and plant growth-promoting traits (Phosphate-solubilization, starch hydrolysis, siderophores and ammonium production). We further assessed biofilm formation and the chemotactic behaviour in response to ACC. A total of fifteen ACCD rhizobacteria with multiple growth-promoting traits from the dominant plant species from the hyperseasonal Aripo Savannas were screened in this study. Five of the isolates were further analyzed based on their ACCD activities and were tested in single and dual consortium to assess their abilities in promoting growth under simulated drought stress (−0.35 MPa) and chemically induced ACC conditions (0.03 mM). Our findings showed that bacteria which produce high concentrations of IAA affected the isolates’ ability to promote growth under stress, irrespective of microbial combination with ACCD activity above the minimal threshold of 20 nmol α-ketobutyrate mg−1 h−1. Biofilm production with co-culture interaction varied greatly across treatments, however, the general trend showed an increase in biofilm under stress induce conditions. The best performing co-culture, UWIGT-83 and UWIGT-120 (Burkholderia sp.) showed enhanced growth in germination assays and in greenhouse trials with Capsicum chinense (Moruga red hot peppers) under drought stress, when compared to non-inoculated treatments. The findings highlight the importance of testing interactivity of bacterial species with multiple growth promoting traits under stress conditions; and proposed the use of ACC growth media as a novel biofilm screening method for selecting potential stress plant growth-promoting bacteria. Better screening strategies for appropriate plant growth-promoting bacteria may narrow the inconsistency observed between laboratory and field trials.

Potential impacts of reduced seafood consumption on myocardial infarction among coastal First Nations in British Columbia, Canada

The objective of this study is to examine the potential cardiovascular risk of climate-related declines in seafood consumption among First Nations in British Columbia by assessing the combined effects of reduced omega-3 fatty acids and mercury intake from seafood on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in 2050 relative to 2009. The data were derived from the First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. Seafood consumption among 369 randomly selected participants was estimated, and hair mercury concentrations were measured. Declines in seafood consumption were modelled based on previously projected climate change scenarios, and the associated changes in nutrients and contaminants were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Reduced seafood consumption was projected to increase the risk of MI by 4.5%–6.5% among older individuals (≥50 years), by 1.9%–2.6% in men, and by 1.3%–1.8% in women under lower and upper climate change scenarios, respectively. Reduced seafood consumption may have profound cardiovascular implications. Effective strategies are needed to promote sustainable seafood harvests and access to seafood for coastal First Nations.

Host movement dominates the predicted effects of climate change on parasite transmission between wild and domestic mountain ungulates.

Climate change is shifting the transmission of parasites, which is determined by host density, ambient temperature and moisture. These shifts can lead to increased pressure from parasites, in wild and domestic animals, and can impact the effectiveness of parasite control strategies. Understanding the interactive effects of climate on host movement and parasite life histories will enable targeted parasite management, to ensure livestock productivity and avoid additional stress on wildlife populations. To assess complex outcomes under climate change, we applied a gastrointestinal nematode transmission model to a montane wildlife-livestock system, based on host movement and changes in abiotic factors due to elevation, comparing projected climate change scenarios with the historic climate. The wildlife host, Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex), undergoes seasonal elevational migration, and livestock are grazed during the summer for eight weeks. Total parasite infection pressure was more sensitive to host movement than to the direct effect of climatic conditions on parasite availability. Extended livestock grazing is predicted to increase parasite exposure for wildlife. These results demonstrate that movement of different host species should be considered when predicting the effects of climate change on parasite transmission, and can inform decisions to support wildlife and livestock health.

Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan in the near and far future

The inconsistent pattern of precipitation, a shift in the seasonality of river flows, and the early onset of snow and glacier melt in recent decades across river basins of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has compelled us to further investigate future variations in sources of runoff under projected climate change scenarios. This will help in determining the timing and magnitude of runoff components and this will help in management of future water resources. The current study employed the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBC WM) to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in simulated runoff components (i.e. snowmelt, glacier melt, rainfall-runoff, and baseflow) and their relative contribution to total runoff of Gilgit River regarding the baseline period (1981–2010) in near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under low (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and high (SSP5) emission scenarios. A significant increase in the magnitude of mean annual temperature and precipitation is expected in the near future (2021–2050) than far future (2071–2100) under most SSPs. Moreover, high-altitude stations of the Gilgit River basin are expected to experience more warming in the near and far future than low altitudes under all SSPs. On average, regarding the baseline period, the simulated runoff is projected to increase in the near (27%, 30%, and 33%) and far future (30%, 53%, and 91%) under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5, respectively. Moreover, an early onset of snow/glacier melting is predicted in the far future due to an increase in summer air temperature and a decline in winter (DJF) precipitation. Besides, the rise in high altitude temperature is expected to cause the melting of snow/glaciers even above 6000 m elevation in the far future.

Risk classification of low-lying coral reef islands and their exposure to climate threats

The bio-physical responses of low-lying coral islands to climate change are of concern. These islands exist across a broad range of bio-physical conditions, and vulnerabilities to rising and warming seas, ocean acidification and increased storminess. We propose a risk-based classification that scores 6 island eco-morphometric attributes and 6 bio-physical ocean/climate conditions from recent open-access data, to assign islands with respect to 5 risk classes (Very Low, Low, Moderate, High and Very High). The potential responses of 56 coral islands in Australia's jurisdiction (Coral Sea, NW Shelf and NE Indian Ocean) to climate change is considered with respect to their bio-physical attributes and eco-morphometrics. None of the islands were classed as Very Low risk, while 8 were classed as Low (14.3 %), 34 were Moderate (60.7 %), 11 were High (19.6 %), and 3 were Very High (5.4 %). Islands in the Very High risk class (located on the NW Shelf) are most vulnerable due to their small size (mean 10 Ha), low elevation (mean 2.6 m MSL), angular/elongated shape, unvegetated state, below average pH (mean 8.05), above average rates of sea-level rise (SLR; mean 4.6 mm/yr), isolation from other islands, and frequent tropical storms and marine heatwaves. In contrast, islands in the Low (and Very Low) risk class are less vulnerable due to their large size (mean 127 Ha), high elevation (mean 8.5 m MSL), sub-angular/round shape, vegetated state, near average pH (mean 8.06), near average SLR rates (mean 3.9 mm/yr), proximity to adjacent islands, and infrequent cyclones and marine heatwaves. Our method provides a risk matrix to assess coral island vulnerability to current climate change related risks and supports future research on the impacts of projected climate change scenarios. Findings have implications for communities living on coral islands, associated ecosystem services and coastal States that base their legal maritime zones on these islands.

Fast range expansion of the red imported fire ant in Virginia and prediction of future spread in the United States

AbstractThe red imported fire ant (RIFA),Solenopsis invicta(Buren), is a notorious, invasive species with broad impacts on ecosystems, economies, and human health. While incidental reports to the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (VDACS) indicate a recent range expansion in Virginia, the full extent of RIFA spread in the area is currently unknown. In this study, we examined the distribution of RIFA in Virginia using multiple data sources: (1) during the summers of 2020 and 2021, we conducted a series of prospective visual surveys along public roadways in southern Virginia, (2) we used data from multiyear VDACS infestation reports covering the period 2016–2021, and (3) we surveyed local naturalists, county extension agents, and land managers. We compared the resulting data with an earlier predictive model quantifying the potential spread of RIFA and constructed a species distribution model to explore the potential range expansion of RIFA in the United States based on new occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. RIFA was found in seven Virginia counties beyond the current federal quarantine zone, and our data show that it has spread much further than predicted 15 years ago. Our species distribution model suggests that the range of RIFA is likely to increase further under the currently projected climate change scenarios, both in Virginia and more generally across the United States, with the lower Midwest expected to be one of the most affected areas. This study provides insights into the range expansion of RIFA at the border of its suitable North American habitat and elucidates some of the environmental factors associated with its current and future spread. In doing so, it provides information to advise sound management practices and prevention efforts.

Climate Change Impacts on Rainwater Tank’s Potential Water Savings, Efficiency and Reliability Presenting Relationship Between ‘Seasonality Index’ and Water Savings Efficiency

The paper presents potential impacts of climate change on rainwater tanks outcomes such as water savings, reliability and water savings efficiency under two projected climate change scenarios; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 utilising a case study using rainfall data from four stations within the city of Brisbane, Australia. Historical rainfall data were collected from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website for the selected stations. Projected daily rainfall data were collected from Australian government data portal for the same stations within Brisbane. Using an earlier developed daily water balance model, eTank potential annual water savings were calculated for several weather and climate change scenarios with varied roof areas and rainwater demandValues of ‘Seasonality Index (SI)’, a commonly used factor representing rainfall variability within a year, were explored to validate earlier developed relationships between SI and water savings efficiency through rainwater tanks. It is found that in most cases water savings in future periods are expected to decrease and such decrease is not necessarily attributed to the expected decrease in rainfall amounts in future, rather also affected by future reductions in rainwater tank reliability. Linear relationships between potential future water savings and reliabilities for all the stations are found. Relationship between SI and water savings efficiency was established, and it is found that the relationship slightly varies with an earlier developed relationship using historical data. Compared to earlier established relationship, for lower SI values water savings efficiency is expected to become better, while for higher SI values the water savings efficiency is expected to become worse. Also, an increase of roof area from 100 m2 to 200 m2 will cause an average increase of water savings efficiency by 25% and an increase of rainwater usage from 200 L/day to 300 L/day will cause an average increase of water savings efficiency by 20%.

Climate-smart forestry in the world’s drylands: A review of challenges and opportunities

Land degradation and desertification are widespread across the world’s drylands. These processes are substantially affected by climatic change, with long-term and severe droughts on the one hand, and high intensity rainstorms and devastating floods on the other hand. Simultaneously, land-use change and mismanagement practices have led to processes of accelerated soil erosion, depletion of soil organic carbon pools, and the degradation of extensive drylands. Forestry has been accepted as an effective means for restoring degraded drylands, and for attaining a range of regulating, provisioning, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services. Specifically, forestry is widely perceived as an effective means for soil erosion control, organic carbon sequestration, microclimate improvement, and climate change mitigation. However, forestry in drylands often proves to generate substantial environmental challenges, resulting in deterioration of ecosystem functions and health. The objective of this essay is to review the challenges and opportunities induced by dryland afforestation and reforestation, and highlight the need to attain climate-smart strategies for establishing and managing these land-uses. Particularly, tree species invasion and allelopathy, which are common in dryland forestry projects, jeopardize species richness and diversity of native vegetation communities. Further, the challenges linked with tree invasiveness necessitate predicting the distribution of potentially invasive species and foreseeing their impacts on the recipient ecosystems under projected climate change scenarios. The effect of allelopathy is significant under limited water availability conditions and is expected to be determined by the expanding drylands and intensifying aridity worldwide. Therefore, judicious selection of tree species should not only focus on ones with high water-use efficiency, low flammability, high pest resistance, and fast growth, but also on low invasiveness and allelopathic capacities. Insights of this essay may be used by land managers, stakeholders, and policy makers involved in environmental development of drylands.

Evaluation of impacts of climate change on natural and managed wetland basins

AbstractLow floodplain wetlands such as the Western Everglades in South Florida are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and their water quality and ecosystem functions vary greatly depending on changes in water levels and discharges. The future (i.e., the mid and late 21st century) climate is projected to result in increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events, which could negatively affect the hydroecological function of the wetlands. Wetland management practices have commonly been implemented to protect wetlands and their functions, but it is not clear whether the current management practices can still be effective in projected climate change scenarios. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the runoff and total phosphorus (TP) of natural (L28 Gap) and managed (L28) wetland watersheds in the Western Everglades. For the assessment, we employed future climate projections made using 29 general circulation models (GCMs) and the Watershed Assessment Model (WAM), a watershed loading model. The WAM was calibrated and validated for the baseline period (2000–2014), and the bias‐corrected climate projections were incorporated into the model to project the runoff discharge and TP loads for the near‐future (2030–2044) and far‐future (2070–2084) periods in two carbon emission scenarios. The modeling results show that the natural wetland watershed would be more vulnerable to projected climate change than the managed wetland watershed. The impact of projected climate change scenarios on daily runoff and TP loads was modulated by water control facilities and practices in the managed watershed, highlighting the significance of watershed management practices for improved water quality under projected climate change. This study demonstrates how the local natural and managed wetland watersheds distinctly respond to the global‐scale changes and emphasizes the role of water management practices in wetland basins, which are expected to help develop effective climate change adaptation plans for improved sustainability of wetland systems.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Resources in Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia

The water supply in Saudi Arabia is already depleted. Climate change will exacerbate the demand for these resources. This paper examines how climate change affects the water demands of Saudi Arabia’s most important food crops: wheat, clover, vegetables, and dates. To reduce the adverse climate change impacts on these crops’ productivity, as well as their irrigation water requirements (IWR), a number of adaptation techniques were investigated. The study was carried out for the Ar Riyadh region, Saudi Arabia, with a cultivated area of 179,730 ha. In this study, five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, were used to forecast and investigate the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources in the Al-Riyadh Region of Saudi Arabia. To simulate IWRs under the present and projected climate change scenarios, CROPWAT8.0 was used. The results showed that the maximum increase ratio in 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, will be 4.46% and 12.11% higher than in the current case (2020). The results showed that the projected maximum temperatures in 2100 will be increased by 4.46% and 12.11%, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, compared to the current case (2020), supporting past research on the Arabian Peninsula that revealed that both short- and long-term temperature increases are anticipated to be considerable. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the projected ETo was found to be increased by 2.18% and 6.35% in 2100, respectively. Given that evapotranspiration closely mirrors the temperature behavior in the study region from June to August, our data suggest that crop and irrigation demand may increase in the mid to long term. The findings indicate that Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital and commercial hub, will require more water to irrigate agricultural land because of the expanding ETo trend. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the projected growth irrigation water requirement (GIWR) will be increased by 3.1% and 6.7% in 2100, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5, crop areas of wheat, clover, dates, maize, citrus, tomato, potato, and other vegetables in Ar Riyadh will decrease by 6.56%, 7.17%, 5.90%, 6.43%, 5.47%, 6.99%, 5.21%, and 5.5%, respectively, in 2100. Conversely, under SSP2-4.5, the crop areas will decrease by 3.10%, 3.67%, 2.35%, 3.83%, 2.32%, 4.18%, 1.72%, and 2.38% in 2100, respectively. This research could aid in clarifying the adverse climate change impacts on GIWR in Ar Riyad, as well as improving water resource management planning.

Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada

ObjectiveClimate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth.MethodsWe used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios.ResultsFor 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090–2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging.ConclusionCanada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.

The influence of ocean acidification and warming on responses of Scylla serrata to oil pollution: An integrated biomarker approach.

Anthropogenic activities primarily combustion of fossil fuel is the prime cause behind the increased concentration of CO2 into the atmosphere. As a consequence, marine environments are anticipated to experience shift towards lower pH and elevated temperatures. Moreover, since the industrial revolution the growing demand for petroleum-based products has been mounting up worldwide leading to severe oil pollution. Sundarbans estuarine system (SES) is experiencing ocean warming, acidification as well as oil pollution from the last couple of decades. Scylla serrata is one of the most commercially significant species for aquaculture in coastal areas of Sundarbans. Thus, the prime objective of this study is to delineate whether exposure under ocean warming and acidification exacerbates effect of oil spill on oxidative stress of an estuarine crab S. serrata. Animals were separately exposed under current and projected climate change scenario for 30days. After this half animals of each treatment were exposed to oil spill conditions for 24h. Oxidative stress status superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione S-transferase (GST), lipid peroxidation (LPO level) and DNA damage (Comet assay) were measured. Augmented antioxidant and detoxification enzyme activity was noted except for SOD but failed to counteract LPO and DNA damage. The present results clearly highlighted the detrimental combined effect of OWA and pollution on oxidative stress status of crabs that might potentially reduce its population and affect the coastal aquaculture in impending years.

Behavioral and physiological effects of ocean acidification and warming on larvae of a continental shelf bivalve

The negative impacts of ocean warming and acidification on bivalve fisheries are well documented but few studies investigate parameters relevant to energy budgets and larval dispersal. This study used laboratory experiments to assess developmental, physiological and behavioral responses to projected climate change scenarios using larval Atlantic surfclams Spisula solidissima solidissima, found in northwest Atlantic Ocean continental shelf waters. Ocean warming increased feeding, scope for growth, and biomineralization, but decreased swimming speed and pelagic larval duration. Ocean acidification increased respiration but reduced immune performance and biomineralization. Growth increased under ocean warming only, but decreased under combined ocean warming and acidification. These results suggest that ocean warming increases metabolic activity and affects larval behavior, while ocean acidification negatively impacts development and physiology. Additionally, principal component analysis demonstrated that growth and biomineralization showed similar response profiles, but inverse response profiles to respiration and swimming speed, suggesting alterations in energy allocation under climate change.

Rapid shifts in pond sediment microbiota in response to high ambient temperature in a water-sediment microcosm.

Unlike the extensive research on the response of soil microorganisms to high ambient temperature (HTA), the response of sediment microorganisms to HTA remains unclear. Understanding the response of sediment microorganisms to HTA is important to forecast their impacts on ecosystems and climate warming under projected climate change scenarios. Against the background of climate warming and frequent high ambient temperatures in summer, we conducted a laboratory incubation experiment to clarify the unique assembly characteristics of pond sediment bacterial communities at different temperatures (4, 10, 15, 25, 30 and 35°C). The results showed that the structure and function of the microbial community in pond sediments at 35°C were different from those under other temperatures; the microbial community structure at 35°C had the most large modules and an average module size. Temperature and dissolved oxygen influenced the microbial community network modularity. The CO2 emission rates of pond sediments at 35°C were significantly higher than those at other temperatures. At 35°C, heterogeneous selection was the most important assembly process. Additionally, warming altered the microbial network structure and ecosystem functioning but not the microbial diversity or community composition, which may be related to horizontal gene transfer. Revealing the rapid response of pond sediment microorganisms to HTA is important for identifying their role in nutrient cycling and assessing the ecological impacts of climate warming and high ambient temperatures on inland water sediments.

Future weather generator for building performance research: An open-source morphing tool and an application

Mathematical morphing of historical weather data to match the projected climate change scenario is a commonly used method to generate future weather files for building energy simulation. It is known for preserving the local weather characteristics, which is particularly important when designing or analyzing high-performance buildings. Researchers may use one of the available morphing tools. Unfortunately, current tools use future climate data from outdated climate models with lesser accuracy, coarser spatial resolution, and fewer climate scenarios than recent models. In addition, these tools are closed, preventing others from adding corrections, updating, and developing them further. This paper presents an open-source, cross-platform, and state-of-the-art morphing tool that generates future hourly weather data for the whole building performance simulation. The novel tool is applied to a real-case office building in Coimbra, Portugal. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, simulations show thermal energy needs and electricity use will reduce by 60% in 2050 and 77% in 2080 for heating and will increase by 67% in 2050 and 121% in 2080 for cooling. As a result, the building's global electricity consumption will increase by 24% in 2050 and by 53% in 2080. The study is extended to other locations in Europe, concluding that the total HVAC energy needs will remain constant or even decrease in heating-dominated climates, mainly due to the significant drop in the heating demand in the future.

Mortality rates of desert vegetation during high‐intensity drought at Uluru‐Kata Tjuta National Park, Central Australia

AbstractPrecipitation variability and heatwaves are expected to intensify over much of inland Australia under most projected climate change scenarios. This will undoubtedly have impacts on the biota of Australian dryland systems. However, accurate modelling of these impacts is presently impeded by a lack of empirical research on drought/heatwave effects on native arid flora and fauna. During the 2018–2021 Australian drought, many parts of the continent's inland experienced their hottest, driest period on record. Here, we present the results of a field survey in 2021 involving indigenous rangers, scientists and national parks staff who assessed plant dieback during this drought at Uluru‐Kata Tjuta National Park (UKTNP), central Australia. Spatially randomized quadrat sampling of eight common and culturally important plants indicated the following plant death rates across UKTNP (in order of drought susceptibility): desert myrtle (Aluta maisonneuvei subsp. maisonneuvei) (91%), yellow flame grevillea (Grevillea eriostachya) (79%), Maitland's wattle (Acacia maitlandii) (67%), waxy wattle (A. melleodora) (65%), soft spinifex grass (Triodia pungens) (53%), mulga (A. aneura) (42%), desert oak (Allocasuarina decaisneana) (22%) and quandong (Santalum acuminatum) (0%). The sampling also detected that seedling recruitment was absent or minimal for all plants except soft spinifex, while a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) indicated two‐way interactions among species, plant size and stand density as important predictors of drought survival of adult plants. A substantial loss of biodiversity has occurred at UKTNP during the recent drought, with likely drivers of widespread plant mortality being extreme multi‐year rainfall deficit (2019 recorded the lowest‐ever annual rainfall at UKTNP [27 mm]) and record high summer temperatures (December 2019 recorded the highest‐ever temperature [47.1°C]). Our findings indicate that widespread plant death and extensive vegetation restructuring will occur across arid Australia if the severity and frequency of droughts increase under climate change.