Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) can prevent recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in certain patients. This study aimed to identify the potential beneficiaries of adjuvant TACE. 477 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC were enrolled in this retrospectively cohort study. The trajectory of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) during the perioperative period was fitted using a latent-class growth mixed model. The association between adjuvant TACE and recurrence-free survival in each PNI group was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier curve. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors for early recurrence after adjuvant TACE and develop a nomogram model. Patients in the PNI group III had a high risk of recurrence and could benefit from adjuvant TACE (P = 0.009). The prognostic prediction model for adjuvant TACE (PAT) incorporated eight variables (PNI, tumor size, tumor number, vascular invasion, sex, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and degree of differentiation). Patients with PAT scores > 330 and 235-330 had significantly higher recurrence rates than those with PAT scores < 235 (P < 0.001). PNI may help guide the selection of adjuvant TACE beneficiaries. PAT demonstrated a high accuracy in predicting the prognosis of patients who underwent postoperative TACE.