Prognostic Factors For Hospital Mortality Research Articles

Adherence to the transfer recommendations of the German Trauma Society in severely injured children: a retrospective study from the TraumaRegister DGU

Particularly for pediatric trauma patients, it is of utmost importance that the right patient be treated in the right place at the right time. While unnecessary interhospital transfers must be avoided, the decision against transfer should not lead to higher complication rates in trauma centers without added pediatric qualifications. We therefore identified independent predictive factors for an early transfer of severely injured patients and compared these factors with the current transfer recommendations of the German Trauma Society. Additionally, the quality of the self-assessment based on the mortality of children who were not transferred was evaluated. A national dataset from the TraumaRegister DGU® was used to retrospectively identify factors for an early interhospital transfer (< 48 h) to a superordinate trauma center. Severely injured pediatric patients (age < 16 years) admitted between 2010 and 2019 were included in this analysis. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for early transfer were calculated from a multivariable model. Prognostic factors for hospital mortality in non-transferred patients were also analyzed. In total, 6069 severely injured children were included. Of these, 65.2% were admitted to a Level I trauma center, whereas 27.7% and 7.1% were admitted to Level II and III centers, respectively. After the initial evaluation in the emergency department, 25.5% and 50.1% of children primarily admitted to a Level II or III trauma center, respectively, were transferred early. Statistically significant predictors of an early transfer were: Serious traumatic brain injury (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.28–2.43), Injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 16 points (ISS 16–24: OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.59–2.66; ISS 25–33: OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.08–4.31; ISS 34–75: OR 5.42, 95% CI 3.0–9.81, reference category: ISS 9–15), age < 10 years (age 0–1: OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.34–2.71; age 2–5: 2.04, 95% CI 1.50–2.78; age 6–9: 1.62, 95% CI 1.23–2.14; reference category: age 10–15). The most important independent factor for mortality in non-transferred patients was age < 10 years (age 0–1: 5.35, 95% CI 3.25–8.81; age 2–5: 2.46, 95% CI 1.50–4.04; age 6–9: OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.05–2.75; reference category: age 10–15). Knowing the independent predictors for an early transfer, such as a young patient's age, a high injury severity, serious traumatic brain injury (TBI), may improve the choice of the appropriate trauma center. This may guide the rapid decision for an early interhospital transfer. There is still a lack of outcome data on children with early interhospital transfers in Germany, who are the most vulnerable group.

Pulmonary Embolism: Treatment Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Mortality in University Hospital

Objective: To determine the treatment outcomes, and to identify the prognostic factors of hospital mortality of pulmonary embolism (PE) patients. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a 1,400-bed university hospital. Demographic, Medical history, clinical data and treatment outcomes were collected. Logistic regression was performed to identify prognostic factors for all-cause of hospital mortality. Results: One hundred fifty-eight patients with PE were included, 47.5% were male and the mean age was 59.2±14.7 years. The most common of clinical presentation are dyspnea 125 (79.1%), tachycardia 72 (45.6%), and hypotension 39 (24.7%). Forty patients (25.3%) had acute massive PE. The overall mortality rate (MR) was 19.6% and intensive care unit (ICU) MR was found in 34.5%. The prognostic factors of mortality were massive PE (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 27.06, p=0.039), cancer (AOR 4.45, 95% CI 1.52 to 12.98, p=0.006), respiratory failure (AOR 3.63, 95% CI 1.10 to 12.10, p=0.019), and SOFA score of 5 or greater (AOR 3.46, 95% CI 1.11 to 10.80, p=0.032). Conclusion: PE is associated with high mortality in hospital, especially in ICU. The prognostic factors for hospital mortality were massive PE, respiratory failure, cancer comorbidity and SOFA score of 5 or greater. Keywords: Pulmonary embolism, Prognostic factor, Mortality, Treatment outcomes

Initiation of a new anti-cancer medical treatment in ICU: a retrospective study

ABSTRACT Purpose The purpose of our study is to evaluate the characteristics of patients whose medical anti-cancer treatment has been initiated at the ICU and to release prognostic factors for hospital mortality in these patients. Material and Methods We analyzed retrospectively all the records of cancer patients admitted between 01/01/2007 and 31/12/2017 in our ICU and for whom a new anti-cancer medical treatment was initiated during their ICU stay. Results Our study includes 147 patients, 78 men (53%) and 69 women (47%), with a median age of 58 years. Eighty patients (54%) had a solid tumor and 67 (46%) a hematological malignancy. ICU mortality was 23% and hospital mortality 32%. The poor prognostic factors for hospital mortality were: higher SOFA, higher Charslon comorbidity index and the presence of a therapeutic limitation (introduced at the time of admission or within 24 hours of admission to the ICU). One-year survival for patients who survived hospital stay was 37% (17% for those with a solid tumor and 61% for the ones with a hematological malignancy). Conclusion Initiation of an anti-cancer medical treatment is feasible and can lead to good 1 year survival rate, especially for those with a hematological tumor.

Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy for Acute Renal Failure in Patients with Cancer: A Well-Tolerated Adjunct Treatment.

Acute renal failure (ARF) has a poor prognosis in patients with cancer requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Our aim is finding prognostic factors for hospital mortality in patients with cancer with ARF requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT). In this retrospective study, all patients with cancer with ARF treated with continuous venovenous filtration (CVVHDF) in the ICU of the Institut Jules Bordet, between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2012, were included. One hundred and three patients are assessed: men/women 69/34, median age 62 years, solid/hematologic tumors 68/35, median SAPS II 56. Mortality rate was 63%. Seven patients required chronic renal dialysis. After multivariate analysis, two variables were statistically associated with hospital mortality: more than one organ failure (including kidney) (OR 5.918; 95% CI 2.184-16.038; p < 0.001) and low albumin level (OR 3.341; 95% CI 1.229-9.077; p = 0.02). Only minor complications related to CVVHDF have been documented. Despite the poor prognosis associated with ARF, CVVHDF is an effective and tolerable renal replacement technique in patients with cancer admitted to the ICU. Multiple organ failure and hypoalbuminemia, two independent prognostic factors for hospital mortality have to be considered when deciding for introducing RRT.

Outcomes of Critically Ill Gynecological Cancer Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit

To assess the characteristics of critically ill patients with gynecological cancer, and to evaluate their prognosis. Fifty-two critically ill patients with gynecological cancer admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) were included. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. Thirty-five patients (67.3%) had carcinoma of the cervix uteri and 11 (21.2%) had ovarian cancer. The mortality rate in the ICU was 17.3% (9 of 52) and hospital mortality rate were 23%(12 of 52). In the multivariate analysis, independent prognostic factors for hospital mortality were vasopressor use (odds ratio [OR] = 8.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.05-36; P = .03) and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (OR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.01-2.09; P = .048). The independent prognostic factors for hospital mortality were the need for vasopressors and the APACHE II score.

Aortic valve replacement with and without combined coronary bypass grafts in very elderly patients: early and long-term results

The number of older patients being referred for aortic valve replacement with or without combined coronary bypass grafting (CABG) is increasing. The aim of this study was to evaluate operative risk factors, early and long-term results of isolated aortic valve and aortic valve replacement combined with CABG in octogenarians and nonagenarians. In the last 10 years, 285 very elderly patients who underwent aortic valve replacement either alone or in combination with coronary artery bypass grafts were retrospectively studied. The population was divided into two groups; isolated aortic valve replacement was performed in 188 patients (group A) and 97 patients had aortic valve replacement combined with coronary surgery (group B). The overall hospital mortality was 5.3%, without statistical difference between groups. The incidence of low-output syndrome was higher in group B (P = 0.0001). The multivariate analysis for hospital mortality showed that urgency status, ejection fraction (EF) <35%, intra-operative variables such as clamping time, need for intra aortic balloon pump and post-operative variables such as prolonged ventilation, dialysis, post-operative myocardial infarction and re-thoracotomy for bleeding were independent prognostic factors for hospital mortality. The mean follow-up time was 49.03 ± 19 months. Survival at one, three and five years was 97.1 ± 1.8%, 92.2 ± 2.2% and 82.4 ± 3.6% for group A and 97.2 ± 2.0%, 88.4 ± 2.7% and 75.6 ± 3.2% for group B (P = 0.62), respectively. Age, male gender, post-operative myocardial infarction, urgency status, dialysis, low EF, mean aortic gradient were risk factors for the impaired survival. In our experience, a careful pre-operative evaluation has yielded good surgical results even in older patients with different comorbidities. Associated coronary grafts slightly increase the surgical risk. The role of revascularization on long-term morbidity and mortality is still not clear. It is essential to compare the results of percutaneous and trans-apical aortic valve replacement with the literature results of conventional aortic valve replacement with and without CABG before it can be used as an alternative for very older patients.

Prognostic Factors for Hospital Mortality and ICU Admission in Patients With ANCA-Related Pulmonary Vasculitis

The objective of this study was to evaluate the factors predictive of 28-day mortality and admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in patients with ANCA-related pulmonary vasculitis. We reviewed the medical records and imaging studies of 65 patients diagnosed with ANCA-related vasculitis hospitalized with pulmonary complications between February 1985 and November 2002. All patients underwent open or video-assisted thoracoscopic lung biopsy, had a positive ANCA serology, and were negative for glomerular basement membrane antibodies. At presentation, 72% had dyspnea, 68% fever, 47% cough, 45% elevated blood pressure, 32.3% hemoptysis, 26.1% sinus involvement, 15% renal failure, and 4.6% scleritis. Pathological findings included alveolar hemorrhage (60%), granulomatous inflammation (46%), and capillaritis (38%). A significant number required mechanical ventilation (27.7%), hemodialysis (24.6%), continuous renal replacement therapy (3.1%), and plasmapheresis (3.1%). The 28-day mortality was 16.9% (11/65). Mechanical ventilation (OR 68, P < 0.005), admission to ICU (OR 18.5, P < 0.01), and blood transfusion (OR 22.4, P < 0.004) were strong predictors of increased mortality within 28 days after admission. Respiratory failure (OR 31, P < 0.0007), hemoptysis (OR 2.9, P < 0.06), smoking (OR 5.9, P < 0.02), and acute renal failure (OR 7.8, P < 0.01) were also predictors for admission to the ICU. In patients with ANCA-related pulmonary vasculitis several clinical factors, but not pathologic findings or ANCA titers, are associated with ICU admission and/or 28-day mortality.

Mortality in Open Heart Surgery with Intraaortic Balloon Pump Support

Mechanical circulatory assistance is frequently needed to support the failing heart. The aim of this study was to determine perioperative prognostic factors for hospital mortality in patients undergoing open heart surgery who required intraaortic balloon pump support. Between January 2002 and September 2006, 475 patients received an intraaortic balloon pump perioperatively. Hospital mortality was 21.89%. Risk factors for hospital death identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis were peripheral vascular disease, left main coronary artery disease, postoperative renal failure, postoperative cardiac arrest, and prolonged hospital stay. Minor and major intraaortic balloon pump-related complications were not significant in univariate and multivariate analysis; the incidence was 5.05%. It is suggested that the threshold for using balloon pump support is decreased in high-risk patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Prognostic Value of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Organ System Failure in Patients with Acute Renal Failure Requiring Dialysis

Background. Despite advances in modern technology of dialysis, prognosis of patients with acute renal failure (ARF) remains poor. To give the clinicians the most useful information, a model that accurately predicts outcome early in the course of ARF is required. However, because ARF is a heterogeneous syndrome and occurs in patients with diverse etiologies and some coexisting diseases, predicting outcome early is hard. The aim of this study is to evaluate prospectively the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and organ system failure (OSF) models, evaluated prior to dialysis, in predicting hospital mortality. Methods. From June 2002 to March 2004, ARF patients requiring dialysis at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi, were prospectively recruited for this study. The worst clinical and laboratory data in the 24 hours before initiation of dialysis were prospectively evaluated, and the patients' APACHE II score and OSF number were assessed. Results. A total of 61 patients (40 male and 21 female) were enrolled, of whom 38 (62.3%) died before discharge. By multivariate logistic regression, the APACHE II score (odds ratio 1.3 per increase in one score; P< 0.001), or OSF number (odds ratio 1.9 per increase in one OSF; P< 0.01) and oliguria (odds ratio 4.2; P = 0.04), were found to be statistically significant prognostic factors for hospital mortality. Mortality increased progressively and significantly as OSF number (chi-square for trend; P = 0.001) or the APACHE II score (chi-square for trend; P< 0.001) increased. By using Youden's index, the best cut-off value for APACHE II was 24, with 63% sensitivity and 96% specificity. The best cut-off value for OSF number was 2, with a sensitivity of 81.6% and a specificity of 60.9%. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for APACHE II and OSF number were 0.847 (95% confidence interval (CI)= 0.752–0.942; P< 0.01) and 0.769 (95% CI = 0.646–892; P< 0.001), respectively, indicating good model discrimination. Conclusions. This study concludes that APACHE II and OSF number measured prior to initiation of dialysis reliably predict outcomes of ARF patients requiring dialysis. The mortality rates increase as the APACHE II score or OSF number increases. For predicting mortality, the APACHE II score ≥ 24 was found to have 63% sensitivity and 96% specificity, and OSF number ≥ 2 had 81.6% sensitivity and 60.9% specificity.

Severe Secondary Peritonitis following Gastrointestinal Tract Perforation

Early prognostic evaluation of abdominal sepsis is useful in the assessment of the severity of the disease and to select high-risk patients for early surgical reintervention. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors in a well-defined patient population most likely to benefit from early reoperation. Retrospective analysis of 66 consecutive patients with secondary peritonitis caused by gastrointestinal tract perforation and requiring postoperative treatment in an intensive care unit was performed using univariate and multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for hospital mortality. The overall hospital mortality rate was 36 %. Significant risk factors in the univariate analysis included advanced age (p = 0.000), pre-existing illness (p = 0.000), chronic medication (p = 0.028), hospital transfer (p = 0.036), non-traumatic cause of perforation (p = 0.031), high Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) score (p = 0.001), and high C-reactive protein (CRP) level in the early postoperative phase (p = 0.015). In a multivariate analysis, only advanced age (odds ratio 1.1008, p = 0.000) and high postoperative CRP level (odds ratio 1.0095, p = 0.008) were identified as independent prognostic factors for hospital mortality. In addition to factors associated with the physiological reserve of the patient, type of peritonitis and high MPI score, elevated CRP levels in the early postoperative phase in patients operated for severe secondary peritonitis have prognostic significance. However, before a properly designed randomized study on the value of planned relaparotomy in secondary peritonitis can be initiated, more reliable methods to identify high-risk patients need to be found.

Severe acute pancreatitis: prognostic factors in 270 consecutive patients.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common abdominal disorder with severity varying from mild to fatal disease. Predicting a patient's outcome remains problematic. The aim of this study was to analyze a large consecutive series of patients with severe AP and to identify prognostic factors for hospital mortality. Between 1989 and 1997, a consecutive series of 270 patients with severe AP were included in the study. All patients fulfilled the criteria of Atlanta classification for severe AP. Retrospectively and prospectively collected data included age, gender, etiology, number of previous episodes of pancreatitis, medication history, type of admission, body-mass index (BMI), respiratory failure, renal failure, need for pressor support, and abdominal surgery performed during hospitalization. The overall mortality rate was 24.4%. In univariate survival analysis advanced age, history of continuous medication, patient transferred from other hospital, high BMI, respiratory or renal failure, need for pressor support, and need for abdominal surgery were significant prognostic factors for hospital mortality. In a multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis, the need of pressor support, renal failure requiring dialysis, advanced age, history of continuous medication and need for abdominal surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for mortality. A logistic regression analysis of variables available on admission (the first seven above mentioned variables) showed that transferral admission, advanced age, and history of continuous medication were independent prognostic factors for mortality. In patients with severe AP, advanced age, history of continuous medication, and need for dialysis, mechanical ventilator support, and pressor support predict fatal outcome and thus should be taken into account in clinical evaluation.

Severe Acute Pancreatitis: Prognostic Factors for Mortality

Several scoring systems (e.g., Ranson criteria) are used to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis. Although these systems also can be used to predict the general risk of death, specific prognostic factors for hospital mortality have not been studied systematically. Researchers from Finland evaluated factors associated with hospital mortality in 270 consecutive patients …