Prognosis In Septic Shock Patients Research Articles

The Combination of Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index and Serum Procalcitonin has High Auxiliary Predictive Value for Short-Term Adverse Prognosis in Septic Shock Patients

The Combination of Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index and Serum Procalcitonin has High Auxiliary Predictive Value for Short-Term Adverse Prognosis in Septic Shock Patients

Establishing a prognostic prediction model for patients with septic shock based on the completion time of fluid resuscitation and the negative fluid balance volumes

To explore the relationship between the completion time of fluid resuscitation as well as negative fluid balance volumes and the prognosis of patients with septic shock, and to try to construct a prediction model based on the completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volumes, and to verify the predictive efficacy of the model on the prognosis of patients with septic shock. Patients with septic shock admitted to Wuxi People's Hospital from April 2020 to April 2023 were selected. The general data (gender, age, body mass index, infection site), pathological indicators on admission, the difference of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) between admission and 24 hours after fluid resuscitation, the completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volume were recorded. Multivariate Logistic analysis was used to screen the influencing factors of the prognosis of patients with septic shock, and a nomogram model was established. Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. The consistency index, calibration curve and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) were used to evaluate the accuracy and prediction efficiency of the model. A total of 96 patients with septic shock were enrolled, 38 patients died and 58 patients survived at 28 days. Compared with the survival group, the difference of APACHE II score, SOFA score, the proportion of fluid resuscitation completed within 1 to 3 hours, and the proportion of negative fluid balance volume -500 to -250 mL per day in the death group were lower, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that the completion time of fluid resuscitation was a risk factor for the prognosis of patients with septic shock [odds ratio (OR) = 26.285, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 9.984-76.902, P < 0.05]. The difference of APACHE II score (OR = 0.045, 95%CI was 0.015-0.131), SOFA score (OR = 0.056, 95%CI was 0.019-0.165) between admission and 24 hours after fluid resuscitation, and negative fluid balance volume (OR = 0.043, 95%CI was 0.015-0.127) were protective factors for the prognosis of patients with septic shock (all P < 0.05). The model validation results showed that the consistency index was 0.681 (95%CI was 0.596-0.924), indicating good discrimination. The calibration curve showed that the calibration curve fitted well with the ideal curve. The ROC curve showed that the sensitivity of the nomogram model for predicting the death of patients with septic shock was 83.7%, the specificity was 97.2%, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.931 (95%CI was 0.846-0.985), indicating that the model had good prediction efficiency. The completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volumes are related to the prognosis of septic shock patients, and the alignment diagram model improve the identification of the risk of death in septic shock patients.

Genetic polymorphisms, biomarkers and signaling pathways associated with septic shock: from diagnosis to therapeutic targets.

Septic shock is a severe form of sepsis characterized by high global mortality rates and significant heritability. Clinicians have long been perplexed by the differential expression of genes, which poses challenges for early diagnosis and prompt treatment of septic shock. Genetic polymorphisms play crucial roles in determining susceptibility to, mortality from, and the prognosis of septic shock. Research indicates that pathogenic genes are known to cause septic shock through specific alleles, and protective genes have been shown to confer beneficial effects on affected individuals. Despite the existence of many biomarkers linked to septic shock, their clinical use remains limited. Therefore, further investigation is needed to identify specific biomarkers that can facilitate early prevention, diagnosis and risk stratification. Septic shock is closely associated with multiple signaling pathways, including the toll-like receptor 2/toll-like receptor 4, tumor necrosis factor-α, phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/protein kinase B, mitogen-activated protein kinase, nuclear factor κB, Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription, mammalian target of rapamycin, NOD-like receptor thermal protein domain-associated protein 3 and hypoxia-induced-factor-1 pathways. Understanding the regulation of these signaling pathways may lead to the identification of therapeutic targets for the development of novel drugs to treat sepsis or septic shock. In conclusion, identifying differential gene expression during the development of septic shock allows physicians to stratify patients according to risk at an early stage. Furthermore, auxiliary examinations can assist physicians in identifying therapeutic targets within relevant signaling pathways, facilitating early diagnosis and treatment, reducing mortality and improving the prognosis of septic shock patients. Although there has been significant progress in studying the genetic polymorphisms, specific biomarkers and signaling pathways involved in septic shock, the journey toward their clinical application and widespread implementation still lies ahead.

Prognostic significance of thyroid hormone T3 in patients with septic shock: a retrospective cohort study.

The role of thyroid hormones is crucial in the response to stress and critical illness, which has been reported to be closely associated with a poor prognosis in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to explore the relationship between thyroid hormone and prognosis in septic shock patients. A total of 186 patients with septic shock were enrolled in the analytical study between December 2014 and September 2022. The baseline variables and thyroid hormone were collected. The patients were divided into survivor group and non-survivor group according to whether they died during the ICU hospitalization. Among 186 patients with septic shock, 123 (66.13%) were in the survivor group and 63 (33.87%) were in the non-survivor group. There were significant differences in the indictors of free triiodothyronine (FT3) (p=0.000), triiodothyronine (T3) (p=0.000), T3/FT3 (p=0.000), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (APACHE II) (p=0.000), sequential organ failure assessment score (SOFA) (p=0.000), pulse rate (p=0.020), creatinine (p=0.008), PaO2/FiO2 (p=0.000), length of stay (p=0.000) and hospitalization expenses (p=0.000) in ICU between the two groups. FT3 [odds ratio (OR): 1.062, 95% confidence interval(CI): (0.021, 0.447), p=0.003], T3 (OR: 0.291, 95% CI: 0.172-0.975, p=0.037) and T3/FT3 (OR: 0.985, 95% CI:0.974-0.996, p=0.006) were independent risk factors of the short-term prognosis of septic shock patients after adjustment. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for T3 was associated with ICU mortality (AUC = 0.796, p<0.05) and was higher than that for FT3 (AUC = 0.670, p<0.05) and T3/FT3 (AUC = 0.712, p<0.05). A Kaplan-Meier curve showed that patients with T3 greater than 0.48 nmol/L had a significantly higher survival rate than the patients with T3 less than 0.48 nmol/L. The decrease in serum level of T3 in patients with septic shock is associated with ICU mortality. Early detection of serum T3 level could help clinicians to identify septic shock patients at high risk of clinical deterioration.

Cytokine modulation in abdominal septic shock via the crucial role of IL-6 signaling in endothelial dysfunction.

Early recovery from shock improves prognosis in septic shock patients. We determined whether cytokine modulation by Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy (CRRT) following acute care surgery resulted in stable hemodynamics in them. To investigate our hypothesis, we measured proinflammatory cytokines IL-6, IL-1ra and the coagulation cascade activator plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) following CRRT with polymyxin B immobilized fiber (PMX-DHP) which has been utilized as an adjuvant treatment option for patients with severe septic shock. 66 septic shock patients requiring 2 h direct hemoperfusion therapy PMX-DHP were included. 36 patients of them also received continuous hemodiafiltration (CHDF) after performing PMX-DHP. Circulatory dynamics and levels of inflammatory mediators, namely IL-6, IL-1ra, and PAI-1 were assessed before, immediately after, and 24 h initiation of PMX-DHP. Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) rose intentionally by PMX-DHP just after enforcement 24 h later (p < 0.01). Levels of IL-6, IL-1ra, and PAI-1 significantly decreased after PMX-DHP (p < 0.05) and this trend was observed up to 24 h post initiation of PMX-DHP (p < 0.05). IL-6 modulation by PMX-DHP was enhanced with using CHDF and there was a significant correlation between IL-6 and MAP (p < 0.0001). In addition, levels of Il-6 and PAI-1 showed a significant correlation. Our data showed employing CRRT as cytokine modulators could be an additional therapeutic strategy to improve septic shock outcomes via the crucial role of IL-6 signaling in endothelial dysfunction.

The role of pulse indicator continuous cardiac output (PiCCO) and critical care ultrasound in volume status assessment during fluid resuscitation for and prognosis of septic shock patients.

To investigate whether pulse index continuous cardiac output (PiCCO) and critical care ultrasound are highly consistent in volume status assessment during fluid resuscitation for septic shock patients and analyze their influence on the prognosis of septic shock. Eighty septic shock patients treated by Huizhou Central People's Hospital during December 2018 and December 2020 were included and divided into a study group and a control group by the presence of volume responsiveness, with each group having 40 patients. The control group was subject to PiCCO-guided fluid resuscitation therapy, while the study group was given fluid resuscitation therapy guided by critical care ultrasound. Cardiac output, cardiac function, and catheter-related infection (CRI) were documented for intergroup comparison to confirm whether these two techniques were consistent with each other regarding their effects on resuscitation for and prognosis of septic shock patients. Mechanical ventilation duration (MVD) and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LoS) were significantly shorter in the study group when compared with the control group, and the differences were statistically significant (p<0.05, respectively). In terms of blood pressure parameters, the two groups did not differ greatly in diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and central venous pressure (CVP) before resuscitation (p>0.05, respectively); at 6h(six hour) after resuscitation, DBP, MAP, SBP, and CVP were substantially increased in both groups as compared with the pre-resuscitation levels (all p<0.05), but the differences between the two groups lacked statistical significance (all p>0.05). Comparing urine volume and degrees of positive fluid balance at 6 h and 12 h after resuscitation, drastic increases in urine volume and positive fluid balance were observed in both groups at 12 h as compared with at 6 h (all p<0.05); nevertheless, the two groups showed no statistically significant difference in urine volume and positive fluid balance at 6 h or 12 h (p>0.05, respectively). With regards to prognosis, there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups in the number of cases of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), dosage of vasoactive agents and 28-d mortality rate (all p>0.05). However, the incidence of CRI was markedly lower in the study group (0/40) as compared with the control group (5/40), and the difference was statistically significant (p<0.05). Both PiCCO and critical care ultrasound can help achieve favorable outcomes from resuscitation for septic shock patients. Compared with PiCCO, critical care ultrasound monitoring appears to be more effective in preventing CRI and reducing MVD and ICU LoS, thereby easing patients' medical burden.

Performance of the renal resistive index and usual clinical indicators in predicting persistent AKI

Background Early recognition of persistent acute kidney injury (AKI) could optimize management and prevent deterioration of kidney function. The Doppler-based renal resistive index (RI) has shown promising results for predicting persistent AKI in preliminary studies. Here, we aimed to evaluate the performance of renal RI, clinical indicators, and their combinations to predict short-term kidney prognosis in septic shock patients. Method We performed a retrospective study based on data from a prospective study in a single-center general ICU between November 2017 and October 2018. Patients with septic shock were included. Clinical indicators were evaluated immediately at inclusion, and renal RI was measured within the first 12 h of ICU admission after hemodynamic stabilization. Persistent AKI was defined as AKI without recovery within 72 h. A multivariable logistic regression was used to select significant variables associated with persistent AKI. The discriminative power was evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Result Overall, 102 patients were included, 39 of whom had persistent AKI. Renal RI was higher in the persistent AKI patients than in those without persistent AKI: 0.70 ± 0.05 vs. 0.66 ± 0.05; p = 0.001. The performance of RI to predict persistent AKI was poor, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.699 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.600–0.786]. A clinical prediction model combining serum creatinine at inclusion and the nonrenal SOFA score showed a better prediction ability for nonrecovery, with an AUROC of 0.877 (95% CI 0.797–0.933, p = 0.0012). The addition of renal RI to this model did not improve the predictive performance. Conclusion The Doppler-based renal resistive index performed poorly in predicting persistent AKI and did not improve the clinical prediction provided by a combination of serum creatinine at inclusion and the nonrenal SOFA score in patients with septic shock.

Dynamic changes of platelet count in first week and their predictive value for prognosis in septic shock patients

To observe the dynamic changes of platelet counts in septic shock patients within first week, and to explore their predictive value for prognosis. Retrospective analysis of clinical data of patients with septic shock admitted to the department of intensive care unit (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China from January 2020 to December 2021 was conducted. The baseline data on gender, age and primary diseases, clinical indicators on infection site, pathogenic microbial type, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), laboratory indicators and the trend of platelet count (PLT) on day 1, 3, 5 and 7 admitting ICU and patients prognosis of in-hospital were collected. Binary Logistic regression was used to assess the independent risk factors of in-hospital death in septic shock patients. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive power of each index for in-hospital mortality. A total of 193 patients with sepsis were enrolled. Among them, 73 patients died and 120 patients survived. Univariate analysis showed that the age, proportion of hypertension and respiratory system infection, APACHE II score, SOFA score and blood lactic acid (Lac) in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group, while the proportion of urinary system infection, white blood cell (WBC) and neutrophil (NEU) were significantly lower in the death group. Within 7 days after admitting ICU, the platelet (PLT) firstly decreased and then rebounded in the survival group, whereas it's showed a continuous downward trend in the death group. And the PLT count in both day 5 and 7 were significantly higher in the survival group compared with the dead group [×109/L: 94.5 (54.0, 182.0) vs. 50.0 (30.5, 87.5), 135.0 (86.8, 205.8) vs. 46.0 (23.5, 71.5), all P < 0.05]. Multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.059, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.002-1.118], hypertension (OR = 6.108, 95%CI was 1.340-27.851), respiratory system infection (OR = 5.300, 95%CI was 1.116-25.118), APACHE II score (OR = 1.158, 95%CI was 1.054-1.273), SOFA score (OR = 1.494, 95%CI was 1.060-2.107) and PLT on day 7 after admitting ICU (OR = 0.926, 95%CI was 0.894-0.958) were independent risk factors for in-hospital prognosis in septic shock patients (all P < 0.05). ROC analysis showed that APACHE II score, SOFA score and PLT on day 7 after admitting ICU all had good predictive value for in-hospital prognosis in septic shock patients, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of PLT on day 7 (AUC = 0.899, 95%CI was 0.857-0.941) was significantly higher than that of APACHE II score (AUC = 0.748, 95%CI was 0.680-0.816), SOFA score (AUC = 0.767, 95%CI was 0.702-0.833). Clinicians should pay close attention to the dynamic changes of platelet counts in septic shock patients, especially the platelet counts on day 7 after admitting ICU. And active intervention should be provided to improve the prognosis.

Impact of completion rates of 3-hour and 6-hour bundle on the prognosis of septic shock patients

To explore the impact of completion rates of 3-hour and 6-hour sepsis bundle therapy on prognosis of patients with septic shock in Prefecture-level grade A hospitals, and analyze the risk factors for prognosis. A retrospective analysis was conducted to patients with septic shock in the intensive care unit (ICU) of Liaocheng People's Hospital, Shandong Province from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021. The data of gender, age, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), sites of infection, pathogenic microorganisms, completion rates of 3-hour and 6-hour sepsis bundle therapy, 28-day prognosis were collected. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for patients' mortality at 28-day. (1) Among 159 patients with septic shock, 93 survived and 66 died with 28-day. There were no significant differences in gender and age between the survival group and death group. Compared with the survival group, APACHE II score and SOFA score were significantly higher in the death group [APACHE II score: 26.85±5.04 vs. 20.67±4.29, SOFA score: 12.86±3.02 vs. 9.37±2.51, both P < 0.05]. (2) Sites of infection in the 159 patients: 47 cases were abdominal infection (29.6%), 36 case were bloodstream infection (22.6%), 31 cases were pulmonary infection (19.5%), 16 cases were soft tissue infection (10.1%), 13 cases were urinary tract infection (8.2%), 12 cases were biliary tract infection (7.5%), and 4 cases were other sites infection (2.5%). Pathogens were found in 128 cases and the positive rate was 80.5%, including 90 cases of Gram-negative (G-) bacilli (56.6%), 27 cases of Gram-positive (G+) cocci (17.0%) and 11 cases of fungi (6.9%). The top three pathogenic bacteria were Escherichia coli (49 cases, 30.8%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (21 cases, 13.2%) and Staphylococcus aureus (15 cases, 9.4%). The differences were not statistically significant. (3) Among the 159 patients, 101 cases completed 3-hour sepsis bundle therapy (63.5%), including 67 cases (72.0%) in survival group and 34 cases (51.5%) in death group; 106 cases completed 6-hour sepsis bundle therapy (66.7%), including 70 cases (75.3%) in survival group and 36 cases (54.5%) in death group. The differences between the two groups were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). (4) The factors (APACHE II score, SOFA score and completion rate of 3-hour and 6-hour sepsis bundle therapy) affecting the prognosis in the univariate analysis were included in the binary Logistic regression analysis, and the results showed that the APACHE II score, SOFA score, completion rate of 3-hour sepsis bundle therapy were independent risk factors affecting mortality within 28-day [odds ratio (OR) was 1.216, 1.303, 0.402, all P < 0.05]. The higher APACHE II score and SOFA score in septic shock, the worse the prognosis. Improving the completion rates of 3-hour and 6-hour bundle therapy especially the completion rate of 3-hour bundle therapy can reduce the mortality of patients and improve the prognosis.

Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy With Adsorbing Filter oXiris in Acute Kidney Injury With Septic Shock: A Retrospective Observational Study

Background and ObjectiveSepsis/septic shock-associated acute kidney injury (S-AKI) is associated with prolonged kidney recovery and extremely high mortality. Extracorporeal blood purification therapy for the removal of endotoxin and cytokines might benefit patients with S-AKI. The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy of adsorbing filter oXiris in the treatment of S-AKI.Design, Setting, Participants, and MeasurementsThis was a retrospective observational study conducted from September 2017 to June 2020 in ICU. All patients received CRRT for ≥24 h. The primary outcomes were mortality. The secondary outcomes included cardiovascular SOFA score and vasoactive-inotropic score (VIS), the SOFA, the reduction of inflammatory mediators.ResultsA total of 136 septic shock patients with AKI were included. The interventional group (oXiris group; n = 70) received CRRT with endotoxic and cytokine adsorption function hemofilter (oXiris), while the control group (ST150 group; n = 66) was treated with the ST150 hemofilter. The early mortality in 7 and 14 days was significantly lower in oXiris group compared with ST150 group (7 days: 47.1 vs. 74.2%, P = 0.007; 14 days: 58.5 vs. 80.3%, P = 0.005), but the difference was not significant in 90-day mortality (71.4 vs. 81.8%, P = 0.160). Additionally, the reduction of the SOFA score in the oXiris group at 24, 48, and 72 h CRRT was significantly faster than that in the controlled group. Meanwhile, the reduction of VIS score in the oXiris group compared with the ST150 group at 24 and 48 h after the initiation of CRRT was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the decreases in procalcitonin were greater in the oXiris group than those in the ST150 group at 24, 48, and 72h after initiation of CRRT. Multivariate Cox regression model demonstrated that oXiris (vs. ST150) played a favorably important role in the prognosis of septic shock patients with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.500 (95% CI: 0.280–0.892; P = 019).ConclusionAlthough no difference was found in 90-day mortality, oXiris might reduce the short-term (<14-day) mortality compared with ST150 groups in septic shock with AKI. Further investigation in randomized controlled trials or high-quality prospective studies is warranted to validate the present findings.

Comparative Evaluation of the Prognosis of Septic Shock Patients from Before to After the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Retrospective Single-Center Clinical Analysis.

In this study, we investigated the mortality of septic shock patients visiting emergency departments (ED) before and after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic onset. We retrospectively reviewed medical records and National Emergency Department Information System data of septic shock patients who visited the ED of a tertiary medical center in South Korea from February 2019 to February 2021. Following the COVID-19 pandemic onset, revised institutional ED processes included a stringent isolation protocol for patients visiting the ED. The primary goal of this study was to determine the mortality rate of septic shock patients from before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Durations of vasopressor use, mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit stay, and hospitalization were investigated. The mortality rates increased from 24.8% to 35.8%, before and after COVID-19-onset, but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.079). No significant differences in other outcomes were found. Multivariable analysis revealed that the Simplified Acute Physiology Score III (SAPS III) was the only risk factor for mortality (OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.04-1.10), whereas COVID-19 pandemic was not included in the final model. The non-significant influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on septic shock mortality rates in the present study belies the actual mortality-influencing potential of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effect of rapid fluid administration on the prognosis of septic shock patients with isolated hyperlactatemia: A prospective multicenter observational study.

We aimed to investigate the association between initial fluid resuscitation in septic shock patients with isolated hyperlactatemia and outcomes. This multicenter prospective study was conducted using the data from the Korean Shock Society registry. Patients diagnosed with isolated hyperlactatemia between October 2015 and December 2018 were included and divided into those who received 30 mL/kg of fluid within 3 or 6 h and those who did not receive. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; the secondary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission, length of ICU stay, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy (RRT). A total of 608 patients were included in our analysis. The administration of 30 mL/kg crystalloid within 3 or 6 h was not significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in multivariable logistic regression analysis ([OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.52-1.23, p = 0.31], [OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.59-1.57, p = 0.88], respectively). The administration of 30 mL/kg crystalloid within 3-h was not significantly associated with mechanical ventilation and RRT ([OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.77-1.84, p = 0.44], [OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7-2.04, p = 0.5], respectively). However, the administration of 30 mL/kg crystalloid within 6 h was associated with higher ICU admission and RRT ([OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.07-2.28, p = 0.02], [OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.19-3.66, p = 0.01], respectively). Initial fluid resuscitation of 30 mL/kg within 3 or 6 h was neither associated with an increased or decreased in-hospital mortality in septic shock patients with isolated hyperlactatemia.

Values of serum PCT, suPAR combined with severity scores for evaluating prognosis of septic shock patients

Abstract Background: To explore the values of serum procalcitonin (PCT), soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) combined with APACHE II and SOFA scores for evaluating the prognosis of septic shock patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 118 eligible patients admitted from August 2017 to January 2021 were divided into survival and death groups. Serum PCT and suPAR levels were detected. APACHE II and SOFA scores were evaluated. A combination predictor pre1 was constructed. The predictive efficacy of the indicator alone or in combination was compared using receiver operating characteristic curve. Risk factors leading to death were analyzed, and a predictive model was established. Results: Serum PCT and suPAR levels as well as APACHE II and SOFA scores of death group significantly exceeded those of the survival group (P&lt;0.05). PCT, suPAR, SOFA and APACHE II scores were valuable for predicting death. The area under curve (AUC) constructed by predictor pre1 for predicting death was largest. PCT, suPAR, APACHE II, and SOFA scores were independent risk factors for death. The model had AUC of 0.828, with the sensitivity of 86.54%, specificity of 89.03%, and accuracy of 82.47%. The death risk predicted by the model had a high concurrence with the actual one. Conclusion: PCT, suPAR, APACHE II, and SOFA scores are closely related to the prognosis of septic shock patients. The combined predictor pre1 is more effective than a single index for predicting prognosis. The combined prediction model of septic shock based on PCT, suPAR, APACHE II, and SOFA scores has higher predictive efficiency.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio in predicting prognosis of septic shock patients

Abstract Background Septic shock is one of the most common causes of admission to the intensive care unit in the world and one of the most common causes of death among intensive care patients. Since the definition of sepsis and septic shock and many studies have been designed to understand everything about sepsis regarding mechanism, pathophysiology, complications, diagnosis, management and all other aspects. Objective To find the association between neutrophil to lymphocyte count ratio and the mortality from septic shock patients. The work aims also to determine if this ratio can be used as a prognostic marker of septic shock patients and to compare this ratio with other sepsis markers as C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin. Patients and Methods This study was conducted prospectively in critical care unit in Ain Shams Hospital, a university-affiliated, tertiary referral center in Cairo, Egypt. Study subjects included 125 patients between January 2018 to January 2019. The ethics committee of our institution approved the study protocol, and written informed consent was obtained from each patient’s family. Results In our study, the neutrophils count was significantly increased in survived patients compared with early and late mortality patients in day 1 while lymphocytes count was lower in survived patient than early and late mortality patients and the NLCR in our study was higher in survived patients than early and late mortality patients. In day 4, our results revealed significant increase in neutrophils count in patients of late mortality compared with its count in survived patients, while lymphocytes didn't show any significant difference compared with its count in survived patients with significant increase in NLCR in patients of late mortality compared with those of survived patients in day 4. Both CRP and procalcitonin are increased in patients of early and late mortality groups compared with its value in survived patients in day 1 and 4. Conclusion This study demonstrates a real relationship between the NLCR and the risk of death in septic shock patients. Septic shock patients at risk of early death presented a low NLCR at admission, although late death was associated with an increased NLCR during the first 5 days. Early and late death should be distinguished because they may involve different underlying mechanisms, and the NLCR might be considered as a discriminant indicator of early or late death. In addition, our findings provide more insight into biology. The circulating neutrophil and lymphocyte trends observed in this study offer an interesting mechanistic viewpoint. We observed that circulating lymphocytes and the NLCR behave in opposite ways in early- and late death patients, supporting the hypothesis that divergent mechanisms could be involved in these two groups.

Combined prognostic value of serum lactic acid, procalcitonin and severity score for short-term prognosis of septic shock patients

To explore the value of lactic acid (Lac), procalcitonin (PCT), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score in assessing the severity and predicting the prognosis in sepsis shock. A retrospectively study was conducted. Patients with septic shock hospitalized in the department of critical care medicine of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from April 2015 to June 2019 were enrrolled. The patient's gender, age, body mass index (BMI), infection site, organ dysfunction status; Lac, PCT, C-reactive protein (CRP), heart rate and body temperature immediately after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU); APACHE II and SOFA scores within 24 hours, and 28-day prognosis were collected. According to the 28-day prognosis, the patients with septic shock were divided into the survival group and the death group, and the differences in the indicators between the groups were compared. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors of 28-day death in patients with septic shock; receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to analyze the value of Lac, PCT, SOFA, APACHE II, and age in predicting the 28-day prognosis of patients with septic shock. A total of 303 septic shock patients were enrolled, of which 124 cases survived and 179 died on the 28th day, and the 28-day mortality was 59.08%. (1) Compared with the survival group, patients in the death group were older (years old: 66.58±15.22 vs. 61.15±15.68), APACHE II, SOFA, proportion of lung infections, Lac increased [APACHE II score: 22.79±7.62 vs. 17.98±6.88, SOFA score: 9.42±3.51 vs. 5.65±1.59, proportion of lung infections: 53.63% (96/179) vs. 39.52% (49/124), Lac (mmol/L): 5.10±3.72 vs. 3.71±2.56], oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2) and ICU body temperature decreased [PaO2/FiO2 (mmHg, 1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa): 198.94±80.15 vs. 220.68±72.06, ICU body temperature (centigrade): 37.47±1.08 vs. 37.80±1.14], and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). (2) Multivariate Logistic regression analysis results: after adjusted for potential confounding factors, APACHE II, PCT, Lac, age and SOFA were independent risk factors for death in patients with septic shock [APACHE II: odds ratio (OR) =1.05, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.01-1.10, P = 0.039; PCT: OR = 0.99, 95%CI was 0.98-1.00, P =0.012; Lac: OR = 1.23, 95%CI was 1.08-1.40, P = 0.002; age: OR = 1.03, 95%CI was 1.01-1.05, P = 0.009; SOFA score: OR =1.88, 95%CI was 1.59-2.22, P < 0.001]. (3) ROC curve analysis showed that APACHE II, Lac, age and SOFA could predict the prognosis of patients with septic shock [APACHE II: the area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.682 4, 95%CI was 0.621 7-0.743 1, P = 0.000; when the best cut-off value was 18.500, its sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 72.63%, 54.84%, 69.89%, 58.12%, 1.608 1 and 0.499 2, respectively. Lac: AUC = 0.604 5, 95%CI was 0.540 8-0.668 2, P = 0.002; when the best cut-off value was 3.550 mmol/L, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 50.84%, 73.39%, 73.39%, 50.94%, 1.910 3 and 0.669 9, respectively. Age: AUC = 0.599 1, 95%CI was 0.535 4-0.662 7, P = 0.003; when the best cut-off value was 72.500 years old, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 42.46%, 75.00%, 71.03%, 47.45%, 1.698 3 and 0.767 2, respectively. SOFA: AUC = 0.822 3, 95%CI was 0.776 7-0.867 9, P = 0.000; when the best cut-off value was 7.500, its sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 68.72%, 87.90%, 89.13%, 66.06%, 5.680 4, 0.355 9 respectively]. The combined prediction had a good sensitivity (72.63%) and specificity (84.86%), and AUC (0.876 5) was higher than that of a single variable, suggested that the multivariate combination was more accurate in predicting the short-term outcome of septic shock. Lac, PCT, SOFA score, APACHE II score and age were independent risk factors for death in patients with septic shock, and the accuracy of Lac, SOFA score, APACHE II score and age in predicting short-term prognosis of septic shock was better than that of single variable, and the diagnostic value was higher.

Association between normalized lactate load and mortality in patients with septic shock: an analysis of the MIMIC-III database

BackgroundAn index of dynamic lactate change that incorporates both the magnitude of change and the time interval of such change, termed “normalized lactate load,” may reflect the hypoxic burden of septic shock. We aimed to evaluate the association between normalized lactate load and 28-day mortality in adult septic shock patients.MethodsPatients with septic shock were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III database. Lactate load was defined as the sum of the area under the curve (AUC) of serial lactate levels using the trapezoidal rule, and normalized lactate load was defined as the lactate load divided by time. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed to determine the performance of initial lactate, maximum lactate and normalized lactate load in predicting 28-day mortality.ResultsA total of 1371 septic shock patients were included, and the 28-day mortality was 39.8%. Non-survivors had significantly higher initial lactate (means ± standard deviations: 3.9 ± 2.9 vs. 2.8 ± 1.7 mmol/L), maximum lactate (5.8 ± 3.8 vs. 4.3 ± 2.2 mmol/L), lactate load (94.3 ± 71.8 vs. 61.1 ± 36.4 mmol·hr./L) and normalized lactate load (3.9 ± 3.0 vs. 2.5 ± 1.5 mmol/L, all p < 0.001). The AUCs of initial lactate, maximum lactate and normalized lactate load were 0.623 (95% confidence interval: 0.596–0.648, with a cut-off value of 4.4 mmol/L), 0.606 (0.580–0.632, with a cut-off value of 2.6 mmol/L) and 0.681 (0.656–0.706, with a cut-off value of 2.6 mmol/L), respectively. The AUC of normalized lactate load was significantly greater than both initial lactate and maximum lactate (all p < 0.001). In the multivariate logistic regression model, normalized lactate load was identified as an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality.ConclusionsNormalized lactate load is an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in adult septic shock patients. Normalized lactate load had better accuracy than both initial and maximum lactate in determining the prognosis of septic shock patients.

Predictive value of glycemic variability within 6 hours on the short-term prognosis of patients with septic shock

To investigate the predictive value of different glycemic variability indexes within 6 hours on the short-term prognosis of septic shock patients. A retrospective study was conducted. The 133 patients with septic shock admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of Nanjing Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University from December 2014 to December 2019 were enrolled. Patients with septic shock admitted to ICU died during hospitalization were enrolled in the death group and others in the survival group. General data of the patients including gender, age, underlying disease, site of infection, duration of mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay, whether to use continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores within 24 hours were collected. The blood glucose (GLUadm), mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum creatinine (SCr) and procalcitonin (PCT) were recorded at ICU admission. The patients admitted to ICU received bundle therapy within 6 hours and blood glucose was observed every 2 hours. The blood glucose difference (GLUdif), average blood glucose (GLUave), blood glucose standard deviation (GLUsd) and blood glucose variation coefficient (GLUcv) within 6 hours were calculated. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the prognostic factors of short-term prognosis of patients with septic shock, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of glycemic parameters for short-term prognosis of septic shock patients. A total of 133 patients with septic shock were admitted to ICU, among them 87 patients survived and 46 patients died during the ICU hospitalization. Compared with the survival group, the SCr at ICU admission and APACHE II score within 24 hours were significantly higher in the death group [SCr (μmol/L): 208.5 (143.0, 286.5) vs. 172.0 (91.0, 234.0), APACHE II score: 30.28±6.67 vs. 24.03±5.90, both P < 0.05], the length of ICU stay was shorter [days: 4.00 (2.00, 10.25) vs. 9.00 (4.00, 13.00), P < 0.01]. However, there were no significant differences in the baseline data of gender, age, underlying disease, infection site, CRRT ratio, MAP or PCT at ICU admission between the two groups. Compared with the survival group, the GLUsd and GLUcv within 6 hours in the death group were higher [GLUsd (mmol/L): 2.33 (1.95, 3.14) vs. 2.02 (1.66, 2.52), GLUcv: (31.00±7.06)% vs. (23.31±10.51)%, both P < 0.05]. There were no statistically significant differences in the levels of GLUadm, GLUdif or GLUave within 6 hours between the two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that APACHE II score within 24 hours and GLUsd and GLUcv within 6 hours were independent risk factors of the short-term prognosis of septic shock patients [APACHE II score: odds ratio (OR) = 1.173, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.095-1.256, P = 0.000; GLUsd: OR = 1.465, 95%CI was 1.038-2.067, P = 0.030; GLUcv: OR = 1.089, 95%CI was 1.043-1.138, P = 0.000]. ROC curve analysis showed that GLUsd and GLUcv within 6 hours both had certain predictive value for the short-term prognosis of septic shock patients, the area under ROC curve (AUC) of GLUcv within 6 hours was higher than that of APACHE II score (0.765 vs. 0.753), and AUC of GLUsd within 6 hours was close to APACHE II score (0.629 vs. 0.753); and the diagnostic value of GLUsd combined with GLUcv within 6 hours was higher than the two respectively (AUC: 0.809 vs. 0.629, 0.765), the sensitivity was 97.8%, and the specificity was 66.7%. GLUsd combined with GLUcv within 6 hours can be used to estimate the short-term prognosis of septic shock patients.

Association of inferior vena cava diameter ratio measured on computed tomography scans with the outcome of patients with septic shock.

The collapsibility and diameter of the inferior vena cava (IVC) are known to predict the volume state in critically ill patients. However, no study has examined the prognostic value of the IVC diameter ratio measured on computed tomography (CT) in patients with septic shock. A retrospective observational study was conducted on adult septic shock patients visiting the emergency department at a university hospital in Korea. The IVC diameter ratio was calculated by dividing the maximal transverse and anteroposterior diameters. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate whether the IVC diameter ratio predicted in-hospital mortality. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value with the cut-off values were computed. A total of 423 adult septic shock patients were included, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 17%. The median IVC diameter ratio in non-survivors was significantly greater than in survivors (1.56 cm vs 1.4 cm, P = .004). The IVC diameter ratio was found to be significantly associated with in-hospital mortality on multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjustment for confounding variables (odds ratio = 1.48, confidence interval: 1.097–1.998, P = 0.01). The AUC for IVC diameter ratio was 0.607. A cut-off IVC diameter ratio of ≥1.31 cm had 75% sensitivity and 42% specificity for predicting in-hospital mortality. The IVC diameter ratio measured on CT may to be helpful in predicting the prognosis of septic shock patients. However, due to its low diagnostic performance and sensitivity, further research is warranted.

Effects of age on the use of lactate clearance rate to predict prognosis in septic shock patients

Objective To explore the effects of age on the use of lactate clearance rate (LCR) to predict prognosis in septic shock patients. Methods Septic shock patients who were admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2015 to August 2018, with complete clinical data, were selected for retrospective analysis. According to their ages, they were divided into a non-elderly group (aged 18-74 years) and an elderly group (≥75 years old). Moreover, according to the outcome of hospitalization, the patients were divided into a survival group and a death group. The level of arterial blood lactate (Lac) was measured when the patients were diagnosed with septic shock (0 h), and 12 h and 24 h after treatment, while the LCRs at 12 h and 24 h were calculated. The scores of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), the length of hospitalization stay and outcomes were recorded. The differences of above indicators in each group were analyzed. Results A total of 483 septic shock patients were collected, in which 286 patients met inclusion criteria, including 111 cases in the elderly group and 175 in the non-elderly group. There were 61 cases (55.0%) of death in the elderly group and 55 cases (31.4%) of death in the non-elderly group. The COX regression analysis and survival time curve showed that age was an independent risk factor for the prognosis of septic shock patients. The risk of death in the elderly group was 1.95 times higher than that in the non-elderly group. Patients in the death group in different age ranges presented higher APACHE Ⅱ scores, SOFA scores, and blood Lac levels as well as lower 24 h LCR than those in the survival group (P 0.05). APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score and blood Lac level were positively related with hospitalization mortality, but negatively related with LCR. Conclusions Age, APACHE Ⅱ score, SOFA score, Lac level and LCR are related factors of hospitalization outcome, where age is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of septic shock patients. LCR cannot be used to accurately evaluate the prognosis of elderly patients with septic shock. Key words: Septic shock; Lactate clearance rate; Prognosis; Age

Clinical investigation on the risk factors for prognosis in patients with septic shock

To study the risk factors of prognosis in patients with septic shock, and to provide a reliable evidence to evaluate severity. A retrospective analysis was conducted. The data of 185 patients with septic shock admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Anhui Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University from March 2016 to December 2018 were enrolled. Routine blood test, blood biochemistry, blood gas analysis, myoglobin (Myo), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), blood lactic acid (Lac), procalcitonin (PCT) and ratio of C-reactive protein and albumin (CRP/ALB) of patients on the day of septic shock diagnosis were collected. Glasgow coma scale (GCS), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS) as well as the time from hospitalization to septic shock and duration of mechanical ventilation were recorded. The patients were divided into death group and survival group according to whether they survived or not on 28 days. According to Myo level, the patients were divided into two groups: Myo elevation group (Myo > 98 μg/L) and Myo normal group (Myo ≤ 98 μg/L). Patients with Myo elevation were divided into survival subgroup and death subgroup according to the prognosis of 28 days. The clinical data were compared among the groups, and the influencing factors of prognosis in septic shock patients were screened by multivariate Logistic regression analysis. 185 patients were all enrolled in the final analysis, there were 106 deaths and 79 survivors on 28 days, 154 patients with elevated Myo and 31 patients with normal Myo. (1) Compared with the patients with septic shock in the survival group, the death group had older patients, increased qSOFA, APACHE II, MODS scores and blood Myo, Lac, PCT levels, faster heart rate, decreased GCS score, and shorter time from hospitalization to septic shock and duration of mechanical ventilation. However, there was no significant difference in cTnI or CRP/Alb between the two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.037, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.010-1.065, P = 0.007], heart rate (OR = 1.020, 95%CI was 1.003-1.037, P = 0.023), qSOFA score (OR = 2.839, 95%CI was 1.321-6.102, P = 0.008), Myo (OR = 1.492, 95%CI was 1.088-2.045, P = 0.013), time from hospitalization to septic shock (OR = 0.938, 95%CI was 0.898-0.980, P = 0.004) and duration of mechanical ventilation (OR = 0.936, 95%CI was 0.899-0.975, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for prognosis in patients with septic shock. (2) Compared with Myo normal group, the Myo elevation group had higher 28-day mortality [61.0% (94/154) vs. 38.7% (12/31), χ2 = 5.259, P = 0.022]. Compared with the survival patients with elevated Myo, the death patients were older, and had higher PCT and qSOFA score, faster heart rate, lower GCS score, and shorter time from hospitalization to septic shock and duration of mechanical ventilation. But there was no significant difference in CRP/Alb between the two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that qSOFA score (OR = 2.796, 95%CI was 1.270-6.153, P = 0.011), time from hospitalization to septic shock (OR = 0.925, 95%CI was 0.884-0.967, P = 0.001) and duration of mechanical ventilation (OR = 0.931, 95%CI was 0.884-0.980, P = 0.006) were independent risk factors for the prognosis in the septic shock patients with elevated blood Myo. Age, heart rate, qSOFA score, Myo, time from hospitalization to septic shock, duration of mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors for the prognosis of patients with septic shock. The 28-day mortality in patients with elevated blood Myo was significantly higher than that in those with normal blood Myo. The qSOFA score, time from hospitalization to septic shock and duration of mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors for the prognosis of septic shock patients with elevated blood Myo.