Regional Development Processes Research Articles

Nachschulische Bildung in schrumpfenden ländlichen Regionen. Erfahrungen und Lösungen aus Schottland und Schweden

Abstract Against the backdrop of shrinking populations, new strategies for maintaining services of general interest in European rural areas are required at both a European and a German level. With regard to this, the field of post-school education as a service of general interest is seen as playing an important role with considerable effects on regional development processes. Educational institutions, traditionally highly centralised, have been shown to influence decisions on staying in or leaving rural areas and thus can further intensify regional demographic developments. In this paper, we examine two examples of post-school educational opportunities in Scotland and Sweden that have been able to establish themselves in a rural setting affected by shrinking trends. Our interpretation is that the continued stability of these examples is due to the ability of local actors to utilise local resources in a meaningful way. The aim of this paper is therefore to contribute to a structured understanding of how local actors manage limited resources to provide services of general interest in the environment of rural, sparsely populated regions in the long term. To enable a systematised analysis of our data, we use an analytical framework originally developed to understand the resources generated by informal planning practices in rural areas.

Analisis Kebijakan Pendaftaran Tanah Sistematis Lengkap dan Implikasinya terhadap Pembangunan Berkelanjutan di Kota Baubau

This study aims to examine the Complete Systematic Land Registration (CSLR) policy in Baubau City and its impact on sustainable development. This study used qualitative methods by using interviews, document analysis, and field observations to collect data. A sample of respondents consisting of government officials, community members, and community leaders was selected by purposive sampling. Based on the analysis conducted, this study concludes that the successful implementation of CSLR policies in Baubau City has significant implications for sustainable development, including inclusive economic growth, social stability, and increased community participation in the regional development process. Understanding the dynamics of this policy can assist the government and stakeholders in implementing appropriate measures to ensure its sustainable benefits to the people and environment in the city. This research makes a significant contribution to the field of public policy and sustainable development by increasing understanding of policy effectiveness approaches in the context of land registration policies at the local level. This research also provides insight into the factors that influence the successful implementation of CSLR policies. However, this study on CSLR policy and sustainable development in Baubau City has some limitations. The study focuses only on policy aspects without considering the perspectives of local communities, who have unique knowledge and experience and can provide valuable insights into policy implications. Therefore, future research needs to expand the scope of analysis to include policy results, implementation processes, and constraints faced by policy implementers and the public.

Regional development is not a dinner party: a research agenda on power relations and the use of language in regional development studies

Regional development is not a dinner party, but rather a largely contested matter in which its political dimension and power relations play key roles. This paper calls for a research agenda to understand more about how power relations and the use of language—specifically, metaphors—can be integrated into regional development studies. In contrast to major strands of the regional development literature, an important contribution of this paper is that we treat regional development processes not as a purely economistic process, but rather as a conflictual process in which different opinions or even divergent views emerge and compete through different language relationships. This occurs on a multitude of occasions, such as when there is a discussion about building new infrastructure and its related socio-economic and environmental impacts, when people have different views on possible regional futures or when certain regional economic sectors are prioritised by politicians and policymakers. We address three main research questions. (1) What can scholars in the field of regional development learn from previous studies of power relations in the fields of economic geography and political science? (2) What are the most promising research tendencies in which the study of politics and power relations can be embedded? (3) Through which original lens (i.e., language) and methodology (i.e., narratives) might empirical analyses best be conducted on the topics we illustrate?

Environmental governance and regional green development: Evidence from China

This study examined the relationship between government environmental governance (GEG) and regional green development. The findings suggest that GEG boosts green innovation by promoting the "innovation compensation effect" while inhibiting regional green development due to increased environmental costs, supported by the "compliance cost effect". The relationship between GEG and regional green development is moderated by economic development and environmental pollution in an inverted U-shaped pattern. When economic development and environmental pollution are at lesser levels, the positive effect of GEG amplifies as economic growth and environmental pollution ascend. However, if economic growth and environmental pollution continue to escalate, the positive impact of GEG will lose its strength. In low-carbon pilot cities, GEG negatively affects regional green development, whereas the opposite effect is seen in non-pilot cities. Regardless, there is an inverted U-shaped moderating impact of economic development or environmental pollution in both low-carbon pilot and non-pilot cities, yet the inflection point varies across regions. This paper offers an original perspective by creating a theoretical link between green development and environmental governance and emphasizes the significance of a nonlinear viewpoint when examining the relationship between variables in the regional green development process, thereby expanding our understanding of green development phenomena.

Indonesia's Geostrategic Position in Global and Regional Politics: Government Preparation

The People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (US) continue to compete for power and influence in various places, particularly in Asia. Southeast Asia is also unifying ASEAN countries under the ASEAN Community Accord. It is vital to recognize the impact of pressure on Indonesia's geostrategic development. Failure to anticipate this can have harmful implications and risk the nation's interests in accomplishing its goals and ideals. However, development strategy research has yet to be adequately reviewed, considered, and integrated within Indonesia's geostrategic setting. This is particularly essential considering the dynamic character of developments within the current strategic environment. Thus, the government must vigorously defend Indonesia's geostrategic position in global and regional politics. These efforts should be a significant input and consideration in national and state issues, ensuring Indonesia's national interests are safeguarded. Therefore, the government can effectively pursue its national goals and aspirations. The preservation and seamless continuance of Indonesia's national ideals can be maintained. A comprehensive literature assessment was undertaken in the past decade utilizing the hazing publish or perish (PoP) application, which involved the utilization of various databases, including "PupMed," "ABIInform," "EBSO Host," "Emerald," "Google Scholar," "Science Direct," "ProQuest," "Web of Science," and "ERIC." This study incorporates the employment of concepts such as "global politics," "ASEAN Community," "political developments," "political dynamics," and "geostrategic conditions." Insufficient infrastructure and limited accessibility. This study provides a complete survey of the extant literature on global and regional political development processes. A comprehensive examination of long-term effects and comparing distribution tactics and research methods are needed. This research explores the requirement of predicting distinct vulnerabilities within each National Resilience Gatra in light of global and regional political development dynamics. In light of the input and optimistic outlook surrounding endeavours to execute primary national responsibilities, safeguard national interests, and actualize national objectives in pursuit of Indonesia's national aspirations, further investigation is warranted into global and regional political development dynamics. Additional work is necessary to address this gap.

PENGARUH PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO DAN DANA PERIMBANGAN TERHADAP BELANJA MODAL

The capital expenditure of Bengkalis Regency fluctuates, this will disrupt the regional development process of Bengkalis Regency. This study aims to look at the effect of GRDP and Balance Fund on Capital Expenditure. The sampling technique used in this study is a census. The data used in this study are secondary data obtained from the Budget Realization Report and the Bengkalis Regency GRDP Report. Multiple Regression Analysis is used to see the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. The results showed that Gross Domestic Regional Product (GRDP) and Balance Fund partially had no effect on capital expenditure.

Сomparative Analysis of Political Technologies for Optimizing the Intraregional Space of the State

This article examines foreign experience in managing regional development processes. The author has carried out a comparative analysis of the political mechanisms for optimizing the intraregional policy of the state, the essence of which is the use of various approaches and principles of regional governance. At the same time, the article pays great attention to the problem of differentiation of the regional space. The author analyzes the political technologies which are applied by the governments of different countries and focused on the formation and optimization of the intraregional space. The experience of Poland is considered from the standpoint of the implementation of regional governance during the period of administrative reform there; the experience of Austria and Belgium, which is studied in the aspect of institutional provision of regional policy. The French mechanisms of public administration are studied, with the help of which it was possible to achieve sustainable regional development of the country. Basing of the generalization of foreign experience, the main political technologies for optimizing the intraregional space are provided in then article, in particular: decentralization, regionalization, multi-level regional policy.

Rationale of construction processes in the social configuration of habitat: Nueva Colonia, Turbo, Colombia

The alliance between universities, the private sector, the State and local communities becomes a fundamental strategy to channel regional development processes. This approach that interprets SDG 17 has been applied in the research courses of the Architecture Faculty of Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana. In these courses, real problems in specific regions of the national territory serve as a starting point to contribute to the training of the architect from the perspective of social responsibility. Specifically, this text focuses on the Sustainable Environment research course, which took as a case study the corregimiento of Nueva Colonia (Turbo- Colombia) to propose technologies that reconfigure positively urban and rural areas. These technologies are proposed as a response to the social, cultural, and economic realities and the conditions that govern construction activity in the region. Based on participatory design as a working method, students design tools that allow collecting information about the perception that the community has of their territory with the purpose of determining basic design guidelines defined collaboratively to provide solutions to the habitat and the built environment. These guidelines derive mainly from a reflection on technology in the construction of social housing, socio-environmental relationships, and their repercussions for the sustainable configuration of the built environment. To achieve this goal, students research on eco-efficient materials and local waste that can be used as construction material or raw material, and which are preliminarily evaluated using circularity and life cycle criteria. In this sense, this text seeks to highlight specific results of eco-efficient materials and waste from the banana industry.

Study of the Relationship Between Regional Development and the Activities of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses

Relevance. In modern economic conditions it is necessary to improve the management process of regional development, to find resources to increase the economic security of the region, to increase the sustainability of the development of regional socio-economic system in an uncertain external environment. An essential resource for the development of regions and the country as a whole is the activity of small business.The purpose is to develop an algorithm for comprehensive assessment of regional development, including the analysis of correlation with labor productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises.Objectives: to analyze approaches to the essence and content of the concept of "development" of the enterprise and the region in the modern conditions of the Russian economy; to formulate the main goals and directions of development of the enterprise and the region in accordance with differentiated approaches to the interpretation of development; to develop and apply the algorithm of complex assessment of regional development on factual materials; to determine strategic directions of formation of the environment of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship to strengthen the propulsive impact on the regional development.Methodology. The basis of the conducted research are the methods of system analysis, expert evaluation, correlation and regression analysis, methods of analysis and synthesis, graphic and tabular visualization of the obtained research results.Results. It is proposed to identify the propulsive impact of SME activity as a structural element of the regional socio-economic system on the final results of its development. The research and measurement of socio-economic development of the regions of the Central Federal District in accordance with the proposed algorithm, one of the stages of which is the assessment of the correlation between the level of development of the region and the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises. On the basis of the obtained data the directions of creation of favorable guarantee conditions for the support of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship as a multiplier of socioeconomic development are determined.Conclusions. Within the framework of the conducted research the technology of research and assessment of the impact of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship on regional development with the subsequent transformation of the assessment results into strategic directions of formation of favorable and stimulating environment for small business as a driver of regional development was proposed.

Unpacking smart specialization strategies: how collective policy-making processes shape the direction of regional strategies

ABSTRACT Regional strategies, such as smart specialization strategies, can set the course for future diversification. Despite its importance, surprisingly little is known about how the underlying policy-making process affects the direction of regional strategies, i.e. the priority areas that regions aim to promote. As a consequence, the underlying reasons why certain regions have difficulties in developing adequate future-oriented strategies remain concealed. The purpose of this article is to provide a framework to unpack the policy-making process of regional strategy development and link it to the policy outcomes. The conceptual elaborations highlight that only by considering the features of this policy-making process, distributed across various actors with heterogenous interests and capabilities, can we explain why regions favour the promotion of certain types of path development over others.

Local development, metropolitan sustainability and the urbanization-suburbanization nexus in the Mediterranean region: A quantitative exercise

The present study investigates the influence of economic growth and socio-demographic change on long-term urbanization and suburbanization processes in a divided region of Southern Europe (Athens, Greece). A two-block Partial Least Squares (tPLS) analysis decomposed metropolitan growth into distinctive processes of local development in ‘central’ and ‘peripheral’ areas considering changes over time (1966–2008) in 14 indicators representative of multifaceted territorial dynamics in the Mediterranean space. By quantifying the bi-directional (spatio-temporal) propagation of socioeconomic impulses, the empirical results of tPLS have delineated substantial differences in the development path of inner cities and suburbs, fueling spatial divides in social conditions and increasingly heterogeneous processes of regional development. While inner cities experienced population growth and settlement densification, peripheral areas underwent rapid suburbanization with spatial concentration of economic functions and a generalized settlement dispersion. Providing further insights in the analysis of the differential mechanisms of metropolitan development in Western Europe, results of this study confirm the specificity of urbanization and suburbanization processes at the base of the increased polarization in central and peripheral areas typical of Mediterranean countries.

Related Variety and Regional Development: A Critique

Evolutionary approaches in economic geography have contributed substantially to the growing body of knowledge of regional development processes and their underlying mechanisms. One key concept in the literature on evolutionary economic geography is that of related variety. Herein, regional industry structure is represented through the level of related variety of technologies, skills, or outputs. The related variety concept proposes that regional economic development is favored when an economy diversifies into products or technologies that are closely related to the stock of existing activities. In this article, we raise substantive questions regarding the internal logic of the concept of related variety, its spatial expressions, measurement specifics, empirical regularities and biases, and its possible short- and long-term effects on regional development. Based on this investigation, we make suggestions for improvements to future research.

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC STRUCTURE TRANSFORMATION IN EAST KUTAI DISTRICT EAST KALIMANTAN PROVINCE 2012-2022

High economic growth is a sign of good social welfare. The total added value generated by all business units in an area is known as GRDP. Meanwhile, existing resources can be simplified and focused on the growth of sectors that have multiple impacts on other sectors during the regional economic development process. This study aims to determine the potential of leading sectors, changes and shifts in industries, and the position of economic sectors based on their growth and contribution in East Kutai Regency for the 2012-2022 period. The techniques used are location quotient (LQ) analysis, shift share, and growth ratio model (MRP). This quantitative study used secondary data as time series of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of East Kutai Regency and East Kalimantan Province from 2012-2022. The results of the Location Quotient analysis show that the mining and quarrying sector is the basic sector in East Kutai Regency. Based on the results of the shift-share study of the seventeen economic sectors, progress has been rapid from year to year, so there has been a shift in the financial industry. The results of the analysis of the growth ratio model (MRP) show that the dominant growth sectors are the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors, the electricity and gas procurement sector, the water supply sector, waste processing, waste, the construction sector, the wholesale and retail trade sector, the transportation and warehousing sector. Accommodation provision sector, information and communication sector, financial and insurance services sector, real estate sector, corporate services sector, government administration sector, education services sector, health services sector and social activities, and other service sectors

The Average Wage in the North-West Federal District: An Assessment of Territorial Disparities on a Settlement Level

Introduction. Effective management of regional socioeconomic development processes is not possible without an objective understanding of impact on the economy exerted by internal territorial disparities. The lack of open data in the official statistics concerning settlements and displaying such a basic indicator as an average wage does not contribute to the task also. For the first time, the suggested solution of the following problem is to use an alternative source of data ‒ Russian form of personal income tax (5-NDFL) tax reports. The goal of the article is to determine territorial disparities between average wages on the settlement level in the North-West Federal District. Materials and Methods. The research covers all municipalities of the North-West Federal District from 2015 to 2020. Average wages in urban and rural settlements, municipal districts and city districts were calculated based on the analysis of 7947 5-NDFL tax reports. A comparison was made with the data from the official statistics. The coefficient of variation and the Gini index were calculated for each area and the North-West District in whole as well as the difference between progressive and regressive types of average wages. Mappings were made for selected municipal areas. Results. Based on the data extracted from 5-NDFL forms, the research suggests a method of average wage calculation in municipalities. The proof is given that the following tax reports can be viewed as an appropriate source of data for determination of income inequality in case of settlements. It is established that territorial disparities in the Federal District have decreased due to the slight growth of average and median wages. Through the example of selected municipal districts, the research displays the existing difference in wages amid urban and rural settlements and also indicates the decisive role of the area center in the consolidated regional scores. Discussion and Conclusion. A comparative analysis of inequality indicators in wages has revealed higher values of territorial disparities at the settlement level. In practical terms, the transition from district values of indicators to settlement values in the state monitoring system makes it possible to increase the objectivity of assessing ongoing processes and improve the quality of managerial decision-making.

The relation of regional characteristics and economic value of agricultural dry land in Cugenang District, Cianjur Regency

The development of an area occurs due to the influence of several factors, including geographical conditions, availability of facilities and infrastructure, population demographics, distance from the city center, accessibility, climatic conditions, and natural resources. The development process of regional development is closely related to urbanization, along with population growth, the need for land continues to increase, and the development process will affect the nearest area which is usually characterized as rural areas. This study aims to identify the spatial pattern of regional characteristics formed in Cugenang District, Cianjur Regency, and its relationship to the economic value of dryland agriculture. 5 (five) variables are used, namely forest, agricultural land, built-up land, altitude, and the economic value of the land. The research was conducted quantitatively using 35 data samples by conducting interviews with respondents, namely farmers and field validation. A grid system with an area of 200 × 200 meters is used, so it makes 2,049 grids to identify the level of urban area. The spatial pattern of regional characteristics is reviewed based on altitude and the ANOVA test is used to identify the relationship between urban areas and the economic value of dryland. The results showed that the District of Cugenang has a spatial pattern of regional characteristics where the higher the level of urban area the lower the altitude area will be, and the relationship between the level of regional characteristics and the economic value of dryland agriculture shows the difference in the average economic value of dryland at the three levels of regional characteristics.

The role of LMX and organizational climate in improving performance and effectiveness of local public administration: evidence from the Metropolis GZM

Since the 1990s, along with the transformation of public administration and the emergence of new concepts of public management, the improvement of organisational effectiveness and performance (OEP) of local public administration has become an important goal of regional policies in many countries. The OEP of local public administration has started to be considered as an essential factor affecting the process of regional socio-economic development. However, to improve the performance of local public administration, factors influencing the OEP of public administration organizations need to be determined. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to identify how such factors as the quality of relations between leaders and subordinates as well as learning climate influence the OEP of public administration organizations.
 Method/approach: The paper presents the results of a survey research conducted among 153 employees of municipal offices in the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis (i.e. Metropolis GZM). A model of relationships between LMX, organizational learning climate, and the OEP was examined with the use of Structural Equation Modeling and path analysis.
 Findings: It was found that the LMX affected the OEP only indirectly through its impact on organizational learning climate which in turn influences the OEP. Therefore, the study also revealed that organizational learning climate mediated the relationship between the LMX and the OEP.
 Originality: The presented results of the study have provided empirical evidence regarding the influence of LMX and organizational climate on the OEP of public organizations which was hitherto absent in the literature on the subject. A novel conclusion from this study is that the high quality of relationships between leaders and subordinates and organizational learning climate improve the OEP of local public administration organizations. Highly effective local public administration can become a driver of the regional development promoting new ideas, innovation and local incentives.

Spatial distribution characteristics of natural ecological resilience in China

High-intensity exploitation of land resources and the natural environment can upset the balance of ecosystems, causing multiple ecological problems and affecting regional sustainable development. Recently, China has carried out integrated regional ecosystem protection and restoration governance. Ecological resilience (ER) is the foundation of and key to achieving sustainable regional development. Based on the significance of ER in ecological protection and restoration efforts and the necessity of conducting large-scale studies, we conducted relevant research on the ER in China. In this study, we selected typical impact factors to construct an assessment model of ER in China and quantitatively measured its large-scale spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, while also exploring the relationship between ER and land-use types. The country was zoned according to the ER contributions of each land-use type, and ER enhancement and ecological protection were discussed based on the characteristics of different regions. The ER in China shows clear spatial heterogeneity and spatial agglomeration, roughly represented by high and low ER in the southeast and northwest regions. The mean ER values of woodland, arable land, and construction land were all greater than 0.6, with more than 97% of the ER values at levels of medium or above. The country can be divided into three regions based on the degree of ER contributions of various land-use types, each with different ecological problems. This study provides a detailed understanding of and explores the important role of ER on the regional development process, and provides support and reference for regional ecological protection and restoration as well as sustainable development.

Directions for improving smart-specialization strategy of the regions of Ukraine from the positions of schumpertianity, institutionalism, and developmentalism

Smart specialization is one of the key modern economic policies implemented in the European Union. Its essence is to ensure innovative development depending on a specific region's existing conditions and features. Smart specialization is aimed at ensuring the regional development of the countries that are part of the European Union and those countries that have a cooperation agreement with it. This tool involves taking into account the peculiarities and capabilities of each region and identifying competitive advantages, which helps to unlock economic potential and more effectively develop innovations at the regional level. Smart specialization aims to: (1) identify the most promising investment areas through a thorough analysis of existing opportunities, assets, competencies, and competitive advantages of the region; (2) more efficient spending of state resources by concentrating on the main industries of a certain region; (3) elimination of duplication of measures that may lead to waste of public resources; (4) implementation of mechanisms that ensure strategic development based on multilateral interaction. The purpose of the study is to determine directions for improving the strategizing of smart specialization in the regions of Ukraine from the standpoint of Schumpeterianism, institutionalism, and developmentalism. The theoretical provisions of ensuring the smart specialization of Ukraine's regional development process in practice face several problems that can be systematized and solved from the positions of different schools of economic theory at the regional and national levels. From the standpoint of the Schumpeterian school of economic theory, the priority direction for improving the smart specialization strategy of the regions of Ukraine is to combine innovation policy with regional smart specialization strategies, as well as the creation of innovative infrastructure to support smart specialization. From the standpoint of the institutional school of economic theory, the priority direction for improving the strategizing of smart specialization in the regions of Ukraine is the systematic alignment of institutions with the goals of smart specialization, the harmonization of the regulatory and legal framework for ensuring innovative activity and strategizing regional development, as well as the elimination of institutional deficiencies in the formulation of strategic documents at the state and at the regional level, which prevent the application of the principles of smart specialization. From the standpoint of the developmental school of economic theory, the priority direction for improving the strategy of smart specialization in Ukraine’s regions is improving economic policy at the national level in the area of stimulating high-tech exports.

Spatial-temporal differentiation pattern and influencing factors of high-quality development in counties: A case of Sichuan, China

High-quality development (HQD) is a development model proposed by the Chinese government in the regional development process, with the five major development concepts of innovation, green, coordination, openness and sharing as its core. It is an expansion of sustainable development, incorporating the connotation of green development and emphasizing the joint promotion and coordinated development of the five subsystems. This study takes the counties in Sichuan, China, as the case area, constructs an evaluation index system based on the five development concepts, conducts research on the endogenous coordination of the HQD system through the Coupling Coordination Degree model. On this basis, its spatial–temporal differentiation characteristics are characterized by Getis-Ord Gi*, and the key influencing factors of the regional HQD are identified by Geographical Detector. The results indicated that the HQD coupling degree in Sichuan Province was in a highly coupling state, but the coupling coordination degree was at the primary coordination state, and the level of HQD was relatively low. Moreover, a spatial characteristic of “high east and low west” was showed in the HQD coupling coordination degree of Sichuan Province. Taking Chengdu City as the agglomeration center, it showed obvious agglomeration effect, and the HQD coupling coordination degree in the areas around Chengdu were significantly higher than in other areas. Furthermore, the permanent populations per unit area, the road mileage per capita, the number of employees and the proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP had significant effects on HQD. The experience of the case area can be a reference for other similar regions globally to promote their high-quality economic and environmental development.

Modelling past and future land‐use changes from mining, agriculture, industry and biodiversity in a rapidly developing Southeast Asian region

AbstractRapidly developing regions in Southeast Asia, such as Kuantan, Malaysia, require robust spatial analysis to understand changing landscape patterns and their socioenvironmental impacts to guide sustainable development and conservation planning. This study aims to characterise and evaluate the historic and future projections of land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change patterns to understand the dynamics of the regional development process and identify potential future land‐use conflicts. We first map coarse‐scale land‐cover classes using Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI data and a Random Forest classifier in the Google Earth Engine platform, and then use auxiliary reference data to manually construct fine‐scale LULC for 3 years: 2010, 2015 and 2020. Subsequently, we modelled future LULC change patterns in 2030 using Land Change Modeller, which applies a multilayer perceptron neural network and Markov chain analysis. The study showed that the region's land cover in the last 10 years has been largely altered by human intervention, driven by an increase in oil palm plantations, followed by mining, residential and industrial site expansion, with a consequent decline in forest and vegetation cover. The 2030 land‐use projections revealed a continuation of these land‐use development patterns. The modelling showed that industry, mining and residential LULC are clustered and growing closer in proximity while expanding extensively, likely causing future land‐use conflict and lead to further environmental degradation. Furthermore, our analysis showed extensive decline in forest cover within reserves. Our modelling demonstrated that natural resource management needs to take an integrated approach as the drivers of land‐use changes are complex, competing and dynamic.