Process Of Deindustrialization Research Articles

Levelling up as green industrial policy

ABSTRACT The emergence of green industrial policy globally signals a growing awareness of climate action as central to policies that address regional economic disparities. In the UK, the newly elected Labour government’s economic vision of ‘securonomics’ corresponds with such an approach: positioning net zero as a key policy goal and the next terrain of ‘levelling up’ in the UK. Any green industrial policy in the UK will be place-based: with net zero both enabling and complicating how economic policy takes shape in regional and local contexts. This commentary highlights the key spaces in which net zero will take shape across the UK, with different communities experiencing processes of deindustrialisation or reindustrialisation as sectors decline and emerge. In advocating for a place-sensitive green industrial policy, it details how green jobs and skills will play a key role in any future just transition. With the regional geographies of net zero already taking shape, it highlights that climate action will be linked to patterns of emergence, change and decline that inscribe regional economies with new vulnerabilities, tensions and futures.

Ecological Consequences of Changes in the Territorial and Branch Structure of Moscow Manufacturing Industry in 1990–2023

The peculiarities of the dynamics of the volume and structure of emissions from manufacturing enterprises in Moscow in 1990–2023 have been revealed. It is noted that the economic process of deindustrialization in the 1990s–2000s has been replaced in recent years by a small reverse process of reindustrialization, with an increase in the diversity of sectoral structure, and a change in the role and internal structure of machine building and chemical industry. The decrease of manufacturing industry output was noticed, while pollution from large enterprises producing products necessary for the city was preserved; at the same time, the rates of decrease in specific pollution for these enterprises have slowed down in recent years. It is concluded that during periods of crisis and recession there is a faster change in industrial structure compared to the change in pollution structure, and that during the recovery phase the pollution structure changes faster, largely due to the fact that industries are expanded initially without adequate expansion of treatment systems.

Strategizing the industrial core of the national economy

Strategic provision of technological sovereignty and economic security for the long term are of the highest importance for any state. The availability of its own critically important technologies and high-tech production of products in priority economic areas increase the state’s resilience to external challenges and threats, as well as orient the economy towards the realization of national values and the interests of innovative development of emerging strategic opportunities. The formation of an industrial core as a vector for the implementation of a strategy to ensure technological sovereignty and economic security is a critically important strategic goal of Russia. At the national level, the need to strengthen and strategize the industrial core is confirmed, in which the industry should be based, not only ensuring stable dynamics of the national economy, but also stimulating its development focused on innovative priorities. However, the results of the strategic diagnosis indicate the existing imbalance in the sectoral structure of the national economy caused by premature processes of deindustrialization and primitivization of production capacities. The consequence of this is an increase in the negative impact of outdated technologies and organizational systems on the functioning and development of Russian industries. The study of the regulatory environment and methodological base of modern strategizing of priority industries in Russia conducted in this article indicates the presence of systemic errors in the preparation and implementation of strategic documents for long-term industrial development. In the article, the authors come to the conclusion about the imperfection and fragmentation of the applied methodology for the development and implementation of strategies for the development of industries, including errors of an essential, structural and methodological nature, or the lack of a methodology for strategizing in general. As a solution, the author proposes the use of industrial strategizing methodology, based on the theory of strategy and strategizing methodology of the Russian scientific school developed by the Center for Strategic Research at the Institute of Mathematical Research of Complex Systems and the Economic and Financial Strategy Department at Moscow School of Economics at Lomonosov Moscow State University, and has a number of advantages for the targeted development of industrial sectors and the formation of the industrial core of the national economy based on focusing on the search and implementation of strategic opportunities and the use of existing and newly created competitive advantages.

Female Employment and Economic Integration in Central America

ABSTRACT: Extensive literature has shown that women’s employment contributes to increasing rates of household savings and economic growth. Likewise, evidence has been reported that in an economic integration scheme, such as that of Central America, the strong economic interdependence existing between countries, because of their relatively high trade flows of imports and exports, gives rise to the spread of economic developments occurring in a country. This paper investigates the extent to which the increase in female employment in the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras) leads to the increase in growth rates in the other countries (Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama). For this purpose, principal components, which is a data compression methodology, is used. The variables that are included in the vector of principal components are the female-to-male employment ratios in the industrial sectors of the Northern Triangle countries. All data used in the analyses were taken from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The first principal component of these variables explains 77 percent of the variance, and its decrease represents the deindustrialization of the respective countries. The second principal component accounts for 17 percent of the variance, and its increase represents the expansion of the service sector in the countries. The estimation of error correction equations showed that the first principal component of the female-to-male employment ratios of the industrial sector in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Costa Rica, exerted positive impacts on the economic growth rates of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, while the second principal component exerted negative impacts. The results also showed that the ratios of female to male industrial employment, as well as the first principal component, fell as tariffs on imports were reduced, reflecting a process of deindustrialization which has led to losses in economic growth, and a decrease in trade flows, and rising youth unemployment and increases of the underground economy with adverse impacts on productivity. Likewise, trends towards economic stagnation and rising unemployment have led to increases in irregular emigration and remittances. Another important result is that the process of deindustrialization, fueled by the extreme openness of economies, has generated a substantial increase in the homicide rate. In summary, the results show that female employment generates increases in the economic growth rate of the respective country and in the other member countries. However, this process of regional employment induction is undermined by the extreme openness of economies, which means that the main beneficiaries of the economic dynamism imparted by the increase in female employment may be the countries from which it is imported. In other words, “globalization” or “openness” frustrates national efforts at economic and social development. It should be noted that in the 1960s and 1970s, when the model of import substitution prevailed, the Central American economies grew at rates twice as high as those prevailing after the “reforms.” The economic policy recommendations are based on the promotion of women’s employment by increasing the levels of female schooling, the establishment of national networks of childcare centers, combating discrimination against women in the workplace, etc. Efforts to increase women’s employment will be better developed if they are structured within the framework of a national/regional employment strategy, in which objectives and targets would be established for each country, and the actions to be carried out in the areas of obtaining resources, identifying, approving and supervising projects would be outlined, and the results goals would be established with the respective indicators to be achieved in the medium and long term. But it should be pointed out that these actions cannot yield the results sought in the current structure of extreme openness of economies, which makes it necessary to design and implement policies to achieve the reindustrialization and re-agriculturalization of the economies, seeking, in addition to increasing economic dynamism, the increase of quality employment, and the reduction of violence and irregular emigration, the achievement of self-sufficiency and sustained increases in the production of goods of special importance. The results of this work have shown that in efforts to reignite economic growth, women’s employment and Central American economic integration can play important roles.

Current state and production characteristics of the Polish tanning industry: A case study

This article presents the results of a study on the current state and evaluation of the Polish tanning industry, focusing on its production characteristics. The research sample included 220 companies that were contacted to gather information about their operations. Some of these companies have been suspended, liquidated, or have changed their business profiles. Approximately 30 % confirmed that they are still active in leather manufacturing, indicating that the Polish tanning industry is experiencing a process of deindustrialization. Surveys conducted in 20 companies revealed that Polish tanneries operate on national, European, and global scales. Most of them are micro or small enterprises with annual revenues of up to PLN 5 million. The primary factor defining their competitiveness is the high quality of the products and services they offer. They mainly process calfskin and cowhides sourced from Poland and abroad, primarily for the footwear sector. Polish tanneries are aware of global trends, including the industry's shift towards ecological practices, the adoption of modern technologies, and the introduction of innovations. Given the current challenges facing the Polish tanning industry, it is essential to take action to improve the health of this sector of the economy.

Evolution of Ural cities at the turn of the 20th–21st centuries

The growth of cities and the transformation of their urban structure reflect the impact of numerous factors: economic, political, social, ideological and others. The Ural region with its concentration of larger cities is among the most urbanised in Russia. The paper explores the urbanistic processes in the Ural region at the turn of the 20th–21st centuries in the context general economic, political and moral factors. The methodological basis of the research rests on the theories of urbanisation and urban development, and the evolutionary approach. The study uses analytical, statistical, and comparative methods. The data for 1989–2022 reflecting the dynamics of urbanistic processes is taken from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The boundaries of the Ural agglomerations are sourced from the official territorial and strategic planning documents. The findings indicate several trends in the transformation of the Ural settlement system and its urbanistic structure, in particular, a qualitative change of the cities’ industrial structure, a decrease in the employment in industry and a fall in the urban population, intensification of agglomerations processes and population tending to concentrate in larger cities. The indicated processes of deurbanisation and deindustrialisation of the Ural region result in the augmented share of larger cities, greater imbalance between size groups of cities. The paper is the first to describe the Ural Urban Square that encompasses four larger urban agglomerations – Ekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, Ufa, and Perm. The paper underscores that the Ural Urban Square becomes a place of concentration of investment, human, economic, and social resources, the core of the development of the Ural macroregion and its neighboring territories.

The evolution of a post-socialist satellite city in Central Europe. A historical and socio- spatial case study of Luboń near Poznań (Poland)

The aim of the article: The evolution of a post-socialist satellite city in Central Europe. A historical and socio-spatial case study of Luboń near Poznań (Poland) is a socio-economic and spatial analysis of the development process of a satellite city with an industrial and agricultural core located in Central Europe. Luboń is a city founded in 1954, which allows to trace the entire process of its development, based on the research methods used, including statistical data on changes in, among others, population numbers, as well as spatial data based on georeferencing of photographic images of archival maps of the City of Luboń. The methods used as the way of describing and analyzing the history of the city were inscribed in the philosophy of the evolutionary approach referring to the dynamics of change and the complexity of development processes and their imbalance. The authors of the article formulate answers of three research questions: (1) how did the industrialization origins and socio-spatial alterations shape satellite city contemporary form? (2) how was its spatial form affected by the de-industrialization process of the first decade after 1989? (3) how has the city changed under the demographic and suburbanization pressure of its larger neighbour over the years? The article also contains elements of historical analysis, reconstructing urban dynamics. It also includes elements of conceptualisation based both on genetic studies of the concept of “new cities”, but also on assumptions present in Soviet urban planning thought, which was a direct inspiration for the solutions of the 1950s. The generalizations, after answering the research questions, proposed in the conclusion indicate the existence of the state of crisis and invite to discuss the dynamics of the phenomena of metropolisation from the point of view of peripheral participants of the process.

ASSESSMENT OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL LEVEL OF ENTERPRISES AND BRANCHES OF THE PROCESSING INDUSTRY OF THE UKRAINIAN

Topicality. Today, the technological level of enterprises and branches of the processing industry is the main factor in the economic development of the country's economy, as it determines the level of material and energy intensity of production, labour productivity, investment attractiveness, competitiveness of the state and living standards of the population. A lot of scientific research by foreign and domestic scholars has been devoted to assessing the technological level of enterprises and industries. Assessment of the technological level of enterprises and industries based on the indicator «share of expenditures on R&D in gross value added» does not provide a comprehensive assessment, since the technological level is determined by many factors.Aim and tasks. To carry out a comprehensive assessment of the technological level of enterprises and branches of the processing industry of Ukraine based on indicators of output, gross value added, employment and labour productivity.Materials and methods. General scientific and special research methods were used in the study: comparison, generalisation, synthesis, system analysis, logical and dialectical analysis, etc. The information base of the study includes monographs, special literature, information and analytical materials, domestic and foreign periodicals, and data from the State Statistics Committee.Research results. In assessing the technological level of enterprises and industries in the manufacturing industry, the most widely recognised approach is based on the indicator «share of expenditures on R&D in gross value added» has proposed a classification of manufacturing industries. Along with the indicator, it is proposed to use other indicators of the technological level of enterprises and industries, since the level of knowledge intensity is only one of the factors that determine the technological level. In addition, this indicator has disadvantages compared to the "intangible assets" indicator, as it reflects the level of research and development expenditures for the year, while intangible assets are the total research and development expenditures for the entire previous period. Accordingly, this indicator is more likely to be determined by the technological level of manufacturing industries. The technological level of enterprises and industries also depends on the amount of fixed assets per employee, the level of employees' qualifications, the level of production and management organisation, and other factors.The article considers two methodological approaches to assessment of the technological level of the processing industry: resource and result-based. The first approach assesses the technological level of the manufacturing industry based on the availability of various types of resources: intangible assets, fixed assets, level of education and qualification of employees, level of production and management organisation, etc. The second approach assesses the technological level of manufacturing industries based on performance indicators, such as output, gross value added, employment, and labour productivity. Assessment of the technological level of industries based on performance indicators is more adequate.In 2013-2020, the share of machine building and the high-tech sector in gross value added decreased from 25.7% to 15.8% and from 35.6% to 24.6%, respectively, while the share of the low-tech sector (low-tech and medium-tech industries) increased from 64.4% to 75.4%. The leading manufacturing industry in gross value added was food production, with a share of 23-25%, which is a low-tech industry. The share of metallurgical production (a medium-low-tech industry) was more than 10%. Between 2013 and 2020, the share of machine building and the high-tech sector in manufacturing employment decreased from 24.0% to 20.6% and from 30.7% to 27.2%, respectively, while the share of the low-tech sector increased from 69.3% to 72.8%. The manufacturing sector with the highest employment rate was food production, which increased from 19% to 21.3%.An analysis of labour productivity in manufacturing industries revealed an anomaly. The production of tobacco products (a low-tech industry) and the production of coke and petroleum products (a medium-low-tech industry) are significantly ahead of high-tech industries in terms of labour productivity. Between 2013 and 2020, labour productivity in high-tech and medium-high-tech manufacturing industries decreased from USD 66.7 thousand (purchasing power parity, constant 2017 prices in thousands of international dollars) to USD 50.1 thousand and from USD 42.0 thousand to USD 37.5 thousand, respectively. And in medium- and low-tech industries, it increased from USD 37.8 thousand to USD 52.8 thousand and from USD 39.5 thousand to USD 41.5 thousand. Thus, there was an inversion: while medium-low-tech industries had the lowest labour productivity in 2013 ($37.8 thousand), in 2020 they had the highest labour productivity ($52.8 thousand).Conclusion. A comprehensive assessment of the technological level of enterprises and branches of the processing industry of Ukraine is carried out on the basis of indicators of output, gross value added, employment and labour productivity. The results obtained show that in 2013-2020, Ukraine continued the process of deindustrialisation of the country's economy and a decrease in the technological level of the processing industry.

Does economic globalization trigger de‐industrialization in Western Balkan countries? Empirical evidence based on augmented mean group estimator

Integration into the global economy can cause shifts in industries and decrease the industrial sector's share. Deindustrialization, which refers to declining industry share, is commonly observed in developed countries. However, many developing countries have also experienced deindustrialization without attaining a high economic level in the era of globalization. Since transitioning to a market economy and integrating with the European Union (EU), deindustrialization has become a significant issue for Western Balkan countries. Thus, our paper analyzes the impact of economic globalization on the deindustrialization process in five Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia by using panel data spanning 2000–2019. Our study involved the creation of two models utilizing the augmented mean group (AMG) estimation method to ensure precise results. Our research shows that in model I, the economic globalization index, economic growth, capital investment, and the rule of law positively impact industry employment share. In model II, trade openness and economic growth positively affect manufacturing value‐added; however, capital investment and the rule of law have a negative impact. Our findings indicate that economic globalization promotes industrialization in the Western Balkans instead of leading to deindustrialization. The panel causality results from Dumitrescu–Hurlin indicate that in model I, there is a one‐way causal relationship going from economic globalization and capital investment to the share of industry employment. In model II, the causal relationship goes from economic growth and the rule of law to manufacturing value‐added, from manufacturing value‐added to trade openness and capital investment.

Social inequality and residential segregation trends in Spanish global cities. A comparative analysis of Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia (2001-2021)

Over the last three decades, the most populated Spanish cities have experienced significant spatial, social, and economic changes. The new urban economies have played an essential role in the acceleration of such transformations, entailing a range of both positive and negative impacts at the spatial, social, economic, and environmental levels. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of how the advancement of the globalization and deindustrialization processes has encouraged social polarization in the cities of Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia, as well as a significant increase in intra-urban socioeconomic residential segregation. The article concludes by arguing that the increase in levels of social inequality and residential segregation reflects the trend towards polarized urban models, which reproduce in urban space the differences observed in the social structure.

The World We Have Lost: Reflections on Varieties of Masculinity at Work

AbstractThe focus on gender in and around the process of deindustrialisation is a very welcome development. The academic attention paid to the decline of male dominated places of work in part can be seen as a continuation of industrial/work sociology's longstanding interest in working-class industrial workers. It may seem counterintuitive to suggest that, notwithstanding a critical gendered account of deindustrialization that pays more attention to women, there remains a need to understand more fully the subtle processes of male gender construction within industrial work. Arguably what has not been fully accounted for are the subtle, complex, and varied ways in which younger males became fully fledged men through a shopfloor ritual, social and cultural transmission, and rites of passage. The article makes two main points. Firstly, it reflects on the notion of care in work and the idea of a moral order of the workplace wherein the workplace acted as an extended caring family. I want to think about this social form through my own research as well as that of other scholars in a variety of industrial workplaces, and also by drawing on workplace autobiography. Secondly, the piece highlights the continued attraction of an older one-dimensional image of male industrial work. In studying this aspect of workplace masculinity, we might be better placed to think about the nature of gendered loss associated with mass industrial closure over time and how in-work socialization patterns have been dramatically transformed. In the process this account will add great depth to our understanding of deindustrialization and industrial culture more generally.

Reindustrialização na convenção de desenvolvimento sustentável

ABSTRACT This article assumes the importance of the manufacturing industry to long-term growth and examines Brazil’s deindustrialization process since its economic opening. The manufacturing sector’s recovery is analyzed in light of the proposal to reindustrialize the economy in the ongoing global climate emergency. In line with the new-developmentalist literature, reindustrialization implies widening policy space to recover public and private investment in productive assets, providing financial conditions compatible with long-term returns. It assumes an active role in state intervention. In this sense, the New Brazilian Industry industrial policy should anchor long-term expectations to enhance productive investment committed to the green transition. This approach positions industrial policy as the anchor to build a sustainable development convention.

Dilema Harrod-Domar, Lei de Thirlwall e Novo Desenvolvimentismo Verde

ABSTRACT The article aims to address the ecological transition into a model that integrates the Harrod-Domar Dilemma and the New Developmentalism according to a Green New Developmentalism perspective. To this end, this paper focuses on the green sides of the middle-income countries’ traps by introducing a novel concept of the ecologically sustainable output growth rate into the new developmentalism model developed by Oreiro (2023) to identify a balanced ecological growth path. Compensating for the price competitiveness losses produced by the exchange rate over-valuation, Ecological Structural Change and green finance allow for reversing the process of premature de-industrialization by improving the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector.

Efekti sektorske strukture stranih direktnih investicija na ekonomski razvoj - slučaj evropskih zemalja u razvoju

The inflow of foreign capital from multinational companies from all over the world, in the form of foreign direct investments (FDI), intensified economic dynamics and contributed to the improvement of macroeconomic performance. In certain economic sectors and activities, FDI has become the carrier of economic growth, encouraged by intensive processes of deindustrialization and reindustrialization. Namely, FDI can have both positive and negative impact on economic growth and development. This depends on the ability of the economic sectors to overcome the negative effects of FDI in a certain period of time, which can only be achieved if the sectors are exportoriented and introduce new technologies into their operations, thereby increasing productivity and competitiveness. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) panel regression showed this was not the case in the primary and secondary sectors in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Western Balkans (WBs), which are still predominantly labor-intensive and therefore have a negative impact on economic development. As opposed to the agricultural and industrial sectors, the services, under the influence of technological progress, is profiled as a capital-intensive sector with a statistically significant positive impact on economic growth and development.

Formação da força de trabalho na economia primário-exportadora brasileira

Abstract This study presents the results of a research on the jobs that have been generated by an economy undergoing a process of deindustrialization and reprimarization, concomitant with strong influxes in scientific and technological education. The objective was to evaluate the impact of the Brazilian economic structure on public educational policies for the formation of the labor force necessary for this market, especially for those graduating from high school and vocational education. Because it is a period in which insertion into the world of work becomes equivalent to education, the last stage of basic education plays an important role, especially for those who live from work. However, between expectation and reality, occupations have been of low and medium complexity, even in the face of rising juvenile schooling. With low technological intensity of its productive structure, the education for young people tends to be oriented to supply the human resources for this economy. This study is based on data available from the Ministries of Labor, Education, and the Economy, IBGE, IPEA, and ILO, anchored on a theoretical framework related to the themes of education and labor. As a result, it is possible to infer an economic (re)taking of low technological activity underway, and a corresponding pressure on technical-scientific education for the training of workers destined for this growing market.

Causes and factors of deindustrialization in old industrial regions

The subject of the study is the process of deindustrialization in the regions of the Central Federal District of Russia (hereinafter – CFD) and a set of causes and factors that determine industrial production reduction dynamics. The purpose of the study is to determine algorithms of industrial production recovery depending on the identified factors and causes of deindustrialization. Statistical groupings, analysis and synthesis method, comparative analysis of deindustrialization processes in the CFD regions were used as a methodology. Exclusive ways to restore industrial production in the CFD regions have been identified: innovation transfer based on the experience of techno-zones, special economic zones, territories of advanced development, and technoparks; integrated use of natural resources; modernization of high-tech industries; industrial agglomerations development in the peripheral territories of the federal subjects. The results of the study can be applied in the process of building strategic plans for revival of industrial production, first of all, when ensuring import substitution and strengthening the country’s defense capability. The process of deindustrialization is influenced by a group of factors that should be considered when establishing original sequence of strategic measures to revive industrial production.

Deindustrialization in a Marxian perspective: An empirical study of the Brazilian economy between 1995-2010

The article brings new indicators that reinforce the thesis that the Brazilian economy went through a process of deindustrialization. Based on the guiding principle of Marx's reproduction schemes, the instrument of inter-regional input-output analysis was used as empirical method. The output multipliers obtained from the Leontief and Ghosh models were used as indicators for measuring structural changes. Critical situations that can show whether there were structural changes in the sectors of the economy, considering both the local economic activity and its relationship with the world economy, are presented. The main results confirm the existence of a deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy. However, it was found that, in absolute and relative terms, the reduction in the capacity of the Brazilian manufacturing to drive the economy oscillated between moments of greater and lesser intensity. Furthermore, strong indications that the Brazilian primary sector is becoming an enclave were found.

A history of borderline: disorder at the heart of psychiatry

This article suggests that to appreciate some of the conundrums that surround ‘borderline personality disorder’ (BPD), we need to understand more about its history and the contexts and cultures in which it arose, consolidated and proliferated. Previous work on the development of personality disorder diagnoses (Jones, 2016) points to their emergence and shape being determined by the interaction of a multiplicity of forces including the needs of distressed individuals and communities; the manoeuvring of professional groups seeking to provide solutions to that distress and the cultural, public and media representations and responses to those problems and the proposed solutions. This single article can only begin to outline some of the key issues and will focus on the emergence of the diagnosis within the discourses of psychiatry. As we will see in the case of BPD, like other, so-called, disorders of personality, there are connections to major social changes; in particular to some of the anxieties raised by urbanisation and industrialisation and later processes of deindustrialisation and their impacts on people’s lives and identities. The article argues that significant roots of the diagnosis can be traced back to major fault lines in the discipline of psychiatry and unresolved questions about its own borders. Is psychiatry a branch of the medical profession or is it a cross-disciplinary endeavour that centres the mind as an object of study and treatment, which cannot merely be located in the individual but is instead immanently connected to the social and cultural world?

Deindustrialization of Detroit: the push of organized labor

ABSTRACT This article takes a step in identifying a more accurate economic history of deindustrialization. Following the extension of the timeline of deindustrialization and its divorce from the 1970s, this article examines the reasons for production facility relocation our of Detroit, prior to the 1970s. Given that the process of deindustrialization occurred prior to 1970, the reasons must be reevaluated. To this end, this article examines one of the lesser investigated reasons that auto corporations moved their production facilities out of Detroit; organized labor. It shows that organized labor was one of the driving factors of production facility relocation. This article makes use of multiple collections housed in the Reuther Archives at Wayne State University in relation to organized labor, as well as union density data. This article details how and why production facilities were pushed out of Detroit in an effort to evade organized labor.

Early warnings and slow deaths: A sociology of outbreak and overdose.

In this paper, we offer a sociological analysis of early warning and outbreak in the field of drug policy, focusing on opioid overdose. We trace how 'outbreak' is enacted as a rupturing event which enables rapid reflex responses of precautionary control, based largely on short-term and proximal early warning indicators. We make the case for an alternative view of early warning and outbreak. We argue that practices of detection and projection that help to materialise drug-related outbreaks are too focused on the proximal and short-term. Engaging with epidemiological and sociological work investigating epidemics of opioid overdose, we show how the short-termism and rapid reflex response of outbreak fails to appreciate the slow violent pasts of epidemics indicative of an ongoing need and care for structural and societal change. Accordingly, we gather together ideas of 'slow emergency' (Ben Anderson), 'slow death' (Lauren Berlant) and 'slow violence' (Rob Nixon), to re-assemble outbreaks in 'long view'. This locates opioid overdose in long-term attritional processes of deindustrialisation, pharmaceuticalisation, and other forms of structural violence, including the criminalisation and problematisation of people who use drugs. Outbreaks evolve in relation to their slow violent pasts. To ignore this can perpetuate harm. Attending to the social conditions that create the possibilities for outbreak invites early warning that goes 'beyond outbreak' and 'beyond epidemic' as generally configured.