Escalation Process Research Articles

Crisis escalation: An empirical test in the context of extended deterrence

The effort to explain escalation processes using formal and empirical models has yielded numerous insights. However, there have been relatively few attempts to integrate these two approaches such that the results from an empirical test of escalation behavior are interpreted within and based on a well specified theory of escalation. This paper bridges that gap by developing a formal theory of escalation processes to derive hypotheses that identify the conditions under which states escalate in conflict. A player's decision to escalate or back down is based on an estimate of the opponent's cost tolerance—the maximum costs a player will withstand to achieve a demand in the game. The hypotheses derived from the theory are general and applicable in many contexts that involve escalation processes. In this paper, the hypotheses are tested empirically in the context of extended deterrence crises. The test confirms the theory's expectations and reveals strong support for the hypotheses. The theory offered here, I argue, provides a better explanation for the patterns found in the data than do the theories used in previous studies of extended deterrence.

A Clash of Civilizations - An Idée Fixe?

Huntington's thesis on the prospective clash of civilizations is criticized in two directions: neither the original article or the book gives any systematic analysis of the inherent link between the cultural characteristics of civilizations and the actual behavior of core representatives of such civilizations. Although Huntington's thesis is more plausible at the micro-level, his argument is deficient here as well: most ethnopolitical conflicts in the modern world result from protracted socio-economic discrimination rather than from cultural roots. The culturalization of such conflicts is, as a rule, a relatively late phenomenon in an escalation process, turning socio-economic conflicts into identity conflicts once the level of collective frustration becomes high. In contrast to his empirical analysis, Huntington's political recipe of non-intervention, joint mediation and finding commonalities among key representatives of different civilizations can be applauded, but they are in strange contradiction to the book-length analysis presented by the author.

A Theory of Escalation And International Conflict

Escalation processes are found in many types of international conflict. However, a great deal of the theoretical and empirical literature on escalation is context specific and concentrates on explaining the outcomes of an escalation process. This approach has generated numerous insights; however, our understanding of escalation processes, in general, remains partial and incomplete. In this article, the author develops a two-sided incomplete information model to identify the kinds of escalation strategies states are likely to adopt in conflict. The model produces several hypotheses, one of which is tested empirically in the context of militarized interstate disputes. The hypothesis states that as the disparity between the players' cost tolerances increases, the lower cost tolerant actor is more likely to escalate to the maximum of his or her ability on the first move in the conflict. The results of the test confirm the theory's expectations of an inverse relationship between cost tolerance and an actor's escalation behavior. The article concludes by noting implications for future research on escalation processes.

Development, patterns and causes of violence against foreigners in Germany: Social and biographical characteristics of perpetrators and the process of escalation

Acts of violence against foreigners have increased dramatically since 1991 in Germany. The author underlines the wave‐like process of escalation and tries to identify triggering and amplifying factors (police reaction, political deficits, public opinion). He analyses police data concerning biographical and socio‐demographic characteristics of the perpetrators and discusses some of the prominent scientific interpretations (disintegration, individualisation, right‐wing activities) concerning the recent waves of right‐wing and xenophobic violence in Germany.

The planning of shopping centres – Local authorities competing in an unforeseen escalation process

The hypothesis was that local authorities act strategically vis‐a‐ris neighbouring municipalities when deciding whether to permit the opening of a new shopping centre or not. Three case studies all reveal the same result: the assumption of strategic action could not be confirmed. The local authorities seem rather to apply a limited perspective. As could probably be expected, they concentrate on the interests of their own municipality and show little concern for regional issues. However, they also seem to disregard the fact that the initiative to establish a shopping centre may motivate a neighbouring municipality to do the same. The result is an escalation process where the shopping centres or the plans for the centres steadily expand. One reason for this pattern of evolution seems to be that the local authorities rely on the judgement of the developers and allow them to take control.

Intermittent Reinforcement and Escalation Processes in Sequential Decision Making:

The effects of an immediate history of intermittent regular and irregular reinforcement and continuous reinforcement on subsequent decisions to recommit resources to a failing course of action were investigated using a computerized investment simulation. Reinforcement histories were manipulated by providing controlled gains and losses from investment decisions. Subjects whoe experienced an irregular-partial schedule of returns from a stock persisted in investing in a failing stock and escalated amounts invested in the beginning of a failure period, but began to de-escalated investing near the end of the failure period. Neither subjects who experienced a regular-partial schedule of returns nor subjects who experienced a continuous schedule of returns from the stoch evidenced such persistence and escalation effects during failure. Although not entirely consistent with previous case role play studies of escalation, these data are consistent with a behavioral account of escalation and persistence in sequentia...

Escalators and Elevators: A Phillips Curve for Keynesians

The negatively sloped long-run Phillips curve remains an issue of contention. This paper presents a theoretical model of the Phillips curve in which nominal demand growth reduces unemployment caused by stochastic shifts of demand between sectors.' The model can be understood through the following metaphor. Keynesian economies are economies in which markets adjust back to equilibrium slowly, so that nominal demand growth presents a means of speeding up the escalator process. Contrastingly, new classical economies, as set forth by e.g. Lucas (1973), are economies in which adjustment is instantaneous. Consequently, there is no role for nominal demand growth in the adjustment process, and to the extent that policy sponsored nominal demand growth is uncertain, it may actually disrupt the economy by sending the elevator to the wrong floor.

Hawks, doves, and civil conflict dynamics: A “strategic” action‐reaction model

This paper develops a model of the escalation process of civil conflicts. The model is a system of differential equations, based on a population growth model structure. Unlike most models of this type, it treats the state as a rational but binary actor consisting of hawks and doves. The model reveals four underlying escalation dynamics which civil conflicts can take. Using these dynamics and the hawk‐dove dichotomy, the model is analyzed to show when it is beneficial for a state or intervener involved in a civil conflict to be hawkish or dovish in their strategy.

Genetic conflicts in human pregnancy.

Pregnancy has commonly been viewed as a cooperative interaction between a mother and her fetus. The effects of natural selection on genes expressed in fetuses, however, may be opposed by the effects of natural selection on genes expressed in mothers. In this sense, a genetic conflict can be said to exist between maternal and fetal genes. Fetal genes will be selected to increase the transfer of nutrients to their fetus, and maternal genes will be selected to limit transfers in excess of some maternal optimum. Thus a process of evolutionary escalation is predicted in which fetal actions are opposed by maternal countermeasures. The phenomenon of genomic imprinting means that a similar conflict exists within fetal cells between genes that are expressed when maternally derived, and genes that are expressed when paternally derived. During implantation, fetally derived cells (trophoblast) invade the maternal endometrium and remodel the endometrial spiral arteries into low-resistance vessels that are unable to constrict. This invasion has three consequences. First, the fetus gains direct access to its mother's arterial blood. Therefore, a mother cannot reduce the nutrient content of blood reaching the placenta without reducing the nutrient supply to her own tissues. Second, the volume of blood reaching the placenta becomes largely independent of control by the local maternal vasculature. Third, the placenta is able to release hormones and other substances directly into the maternal circulation. Placental hormones, including human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and human placental lactogen (hPL), are predicted to manipulate maternal physiology for fetal benefit. For example, hPL is proposed to act on maternal prolactin receptors to increase maternal resistance to insulin. If unopposed, the effect of hPL would be to maintain higher blood glucose levels for longer periods after meals. This action, however, is countered by increased maternal production of insulin. Gestational diabetes develops if the mother is unable to mount an adequate response to fetal manipulation. Similarly, fetal genes are predicted to enhance the flow of maternal blood through the placenta by increasing maternal blood pressure. Preeclampsia can be interpreted as an attempt by a poorly nourished fetus to increase its supply of nutrients by increasing the resistance of its mother's peripheral circulation.

The risks and benefits of signalling aggressive motivation: a study of cave-dwelling little blue penguins

Cave-dwelling little blue penguins, Eudyptula minor, use a large repertoire of agonistic displays. Both qualitative and quantitative measures suggested that some displays were more dangerous to perform than others (estimated by the risk of being injured by one's opponent). A lag sequential analysis of interactions indicated a positive relationship between the risks of performing a display and the display's effectiveness (i.e., in deterring opponents). The cost or risk asymmetries that exist between displays may allow opponents to assess how motivated the actor is to secure or defend resources. Thus, high cost displays are more effective because they reveal a willingness to take risks and also place the opponent in a higher risk situation. Communicating in this way can be an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) because signalling a strong motivation entails using potentially costly behavior (i.e., there are costs associated with bluffing). Also, displays that were accompanied by calls were more effective in deterring opponents than the same displays performed silently. Calls may ‘highlight’ the risks being taken by actors; this may be particularly important in nocturnal species like little blue penguins. Aggressive displays could also be used to predict what the actor was and was not likely to do following the performance of the display. Generally, aggressive displays predicted that the actor would escalate to a higher risk behavior if the opponent did not retreat, but that it would use a lower risk behavior if the opponent backed down. However, risk-based displays should be seen as revealing a certain level of motivation at the time of the display and not as a way of describing how great a risk the actor is willing to take following the display. The predictive value of displays appears to be the result of an escalation process which ensures that opponents are deterred by the lowest risk behavior possible.

Do little blue penguins signal their intentions during aggressive interactions with strangers?

A model of an intruder was used to determine whether burrow-dwelling little blue penguins, Eudyptula minor, signal their intentions during aggressive interactions with strangers. When penguins were first made aware of the simulated intruder, they either gave a ‘threat’ call (hiss, growl or bray) or remained silent. When both members of a pair were present in a burrow, they were more likely to threaten the intruder than to remain silent; the opposite was true when one of the partners was absent. Contrary to the predictions of game theory, the choice of threat call by a lone male or pair revealed information on how likely they were to attack or peck the model when it was moved toward their burrow (lone females rarely attacked the model). Penguins that hissed were more likely to attack than penguins that growled or brayed. However, in no case did growl and bray (i.e. calls that grade into one another) differ in what they revealed about a penguin's subsequent behaviour. The results do not necessarily mean that penguins ‘actively’ convey information on their intentions. Instead, the ability to predict what an animal will do following its display may be the simple consequence of an escalation process, during which animals progress step by step from low-risk to high-risk behaviour.

An experimental investigation on high-frequency vacuum arc interruption at small gap length

An experimental study of high-frequency (126, 230 kHz) vacuum arc interruption behavior and the voltage escalation processes at a small gap length (<or=1 mm) for three contact materials (Cu, CuCr, and CuTeSe) is discussed. Two experimental methods have been used: current injection in a low-voltage circuit and in a 10-kV AC circuit. Experimental results of the high-frequency current interruption ability and the dielectric breakdown voltage are presented. Three kinds of breakdown are distinguished: the reignition voltage, the breakdown voltage, and the cold breakdown voltage. It has been found that the interruption ability is directly related to the reignition voltage.<<ETX>>

Conflict management and the prevention of war

This paper argues that the key to better management of international conflict lies in understanding the processes of conflict escalation and de-escalation. Since many of these processes are psychological, psychology as a discipline would seem to have much to contribute to theory, research and practice in this important area.

Deprivation and Political Violence in Northern Ireland, 1922-1985

Terrorist movements are discussed under the rubric of social movements that generate collective violence. Deprivation theory is tested with multivariate time-series regression models, with controls for security force levels and industrial production. Findings are: (1) although Northern Ireland suffers from high unemployment, increases in fatal violence are not related to rises in unemployment; (2) the violence has a tendency to perpetuate itself, independently of its stimuli; (3) the conflict is unrepresentative of clashes between state and insurgent forces in that most of the fatalities in it are not attributable to the security forces; and (4) further explanations should incorporate both political factors and mechanisms that contribute to the escalation process. Several possibilities are explored.

The Effects of Explicit Goals and Specific Feedback on Escalation Processes

The present study was designed to look at the effects of two important factors on escalation behavior: explicit goals and specific feedback concerning negative decision consequences. Subjects were assigned to one of six conditions in a 2(explicit goal, general goal) × 3(feedback: small, moderate, or large ‐failure) factorial design. Results demonstrated that as failure feedback increased from small to moderate levels, subjects with explicit goals escalated their commitment, but they de‐escalated when feedback indicated a large goal/feedback discrepancy. In contrast, feedback had no effect on allocation behavior for general goal subjects. The study also content analyzed subjects' self‐descriptions in an attempt to explore the processes used to reach an allocation decision. The importance of goals and feedback as well as the need for alternative theoretical frameworks, such as control theory, to explain escalation behavior is discussed.

Controlling Theatre Nuclear War

Over the past decade, both official defence establishments and independent strategic analysts have devoted increasing attention to the command, control, communications and intelligence (C3I) systems which support the US and Soviet strategic nuclear forces, and to the role of these systems in crises and in strategic nuclear war-fighting. In particular, specific consideration has been given to such critical issues as the extent to which current strategic C3I systems enhance crisis stability or instability, and whether or not they would serve to control escalation in the event of a strategic nuclear exchange or, because of their vulnerabilities, would in fact contribute to the dynamics of the escalation process.

Extended Deterrence And Nuclear Escalation: Options in Europe

The relationship between extended deterrence and nuclear escalation in Europe is a principal component of NATO strategy. This relationship is explained by NATO in at least two very different, and somewhat contradictory, ways. The first way is that extended deterrence is made credible by the ability of one side to dominate the process of escalation or at least to match any move made by the opponent. The second way is that extended deterrence depends upon creating an incalculable and uncontrollable risk of war. Reconciliation of these somewhat consistent and somewhat inconsistent logics may not be required to sustain policy consensus on a day-to-day basis. However, there are other potential costs inherent in this conceptual inconsistency, including a looser grasp by policymakers of the process of escalation control.

Characteristics of Homicide Victims and Victimizations in Prisons: A Canadian Historical Perspective

This article presents an analysis of some of the characteristics of homicide victimizations in Canadian federal correctional institutions. Two historical periods are compared; from 1967 to 1978 and from 1979 to 1984. The findings suggest the incidence of prison homicides has increased over the years, and the character of victims and victimizations has changed. More recent prison homicides were more likely to have been carried out by multiple assailants, were more commonly associated with revenge motives or drug and gambling debts, and involved victims were more likely to have violent backgrounds. The article concludes that a more complete understanding of the causes of prison homicides will require detailed analysis of the process of conflict escalation in these settings.

Contextual effects on escalation processes in public sector decision making

The present study examined escalation bias in the context of public sector decision making. Four factors were considered: responsibility (high or low), decision alternative (reserve fund or other sponsor), decision framing (positive or negative), and mood (positive or neutral). In contrast to previous research, it was demonstrated that following a setback, some decision alternatives elicited escalation among low-responsibility decision makers. Other decision alternatives elicited escalation among high-responsibility decision makers. This interaction between personal responsibility and decision alternative was also moderated by the manner in which decision feedback was framed. That is, when feedback was negatively framed, the effects of decision alternatives were negated—resulting in allocation patterns consistent with previous escalation research. The study also addressed the potential role of the individual's affective state on escalation. The importance of decision context, framing influences, and individual differences on escalation conflicts is discussed.

Seismic remote sensing of rock masses for the optimization of excavation efficiency

A seismic remote sensing technique and the associated microprocessor-based instrumentation are described, as part of three phases of a research project into the design of efficient blasting/fragmentation systems in opencast mining. The experimental program outlined involves the remote assessment of rock quality before and after a blast, together with the monitoring of the associated ground vibration and escalation process in order to assess blast fragmentation efficiency. An overview of the experimental program and instrumentation is given together with preliminary results from phase three of the research.