Process-based Morphodynamic Model Research Articles

Numerical modelling of the physical response of coral reef Sandy island to sea level rise by considering seasonal patterns

Sea level rise (SLR) can increase the bathymetry of coral reef platforms, thereby increasing the potential for island erosion and flooding to damage coastal buildings. However, SLR is a threat to the coastal buildings of islands not only in this way, but also in the destruction of coastal buildings due to island morphology changes caused by SLR. Based on sediment, offshore wave, and tidal data from Yongxing Island (sandy island), Xuande Atoll, South China Sea, a process-based morphodynamic model, XBeach-G, was used to predict the morphological evolution of coral reef sandy island under future SLR based on the RCP8.5 scenario. As waves and tides in the South China Sea are distinctly seasonal, the influence of seasonal patterns was considered in the model. Sensitivity analysis of the effects of water level on the reef, offshore significant wave height, sediment porosity and sediment size on the morphological evolution of the islands was conducted. Numerical simulations indicate that under SLR and extreme wave action, the sandy islands eventually retreat landward and the foreshore height increases and the slope steepens and as the SLR rate increases, the island retreats more towards land and the foreshore height rise decreases. While this natural adjustment of the coral reef island increases the island's potential to offset future flood events and support future physical persistence, there is a negative impact on the safety of coastal buildings. This paper highlights the need to develop reasonable conservation policies based on the island's specific environment and conditions. Excessive use of artificial shorelines to protect islands can damage their natural adjustment to resist disasters such as flooding, while artificial defenses are necessary in the case of threats to coastal buildings or the disappearance of certain islands.

Effects of Wave Height, Period and Sea Level on Barred Beach Profile Evolution: Revisiting the Roller Slope in a Beach Morphodynamic Model

Sandbars are commonly observed on sandy coasts, and they can prevent erosion on the beach face. Better prediction of sandbar evolution is necessary for coastal management and beach nourishment. In this study, a process-based morphodynamic model is used to reproduce the barred beach profile evolution in the Duck94 field experiments. The importance of the wave roller slope parameter in the model is revisited. Six idealized numerical experiments are set to investigate the effect of wave heights, wave periods and sea levels on sandbar migrations. By implementing two recent cross-shore varying roller slope formulas, the models achieved fair-to-good performances. It was found that the variations of sandbar morphological evolution are mainly controlled by the cross-shore varying roller slope. An increase in the wave height or a decrease in the wave period would lead to a more rapid and further-offshore migration of the sandbar. When the sea level variations are much smaller than the water depth over the sandbar, the effect of sea level changes on the sandbar migration is negligible, though a lower sea level would cause more erosion on the beach face.

Climate Change Induced Coastline Change Adjacent to Small Tidal Inlets

The many thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs), and their adjacent coastlines, are almost certain to be affected by climate change in multiple ways, due to their behaviour being closely linked to both oceanic and terrestrial drivers such as riverflow, sea level, and ocean waves, all which are projected to change over the 21st century. Development of risk informed adaptation strategies for these highly utilized and inhabited inlet-interrupted coast zones requires projections of both alongshore average coastline recession and alongshore variability in coastline position along the coast under future forcing conditions, the latter being an aspect that has not received much attention to date. Here, a combination of a process-based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) and the reduced complexity coastline model (SMIC), concurrently forced with tides, waves, riverflows, and sea level rise, is used to investigate both of these phenomena at STI-interrupted coasts. The models are here applied to schematised conditions representing two systems in Sri Lanka, representing two of the three main Types of STIs: Negombo lagoon – permanently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 1), and Kalutara lagoon – permanently open, alongshore migrating inlet (Type 2). Results indicate that, under a high emissions climate scenario following RCP 8.5, by end-century, the coastline adjacent to the Type 1 STI may experience an alongshore average recession as large as 200 m, and that the alongshore variability in coastline position may be up to twice that at present. The Type 2 STI is projected to experience an alongshore average coastline recession of about 120 m, and up to a 75% increase in alongshore variability in coastline position by end-century, relative to the present. Thus, both the alongshore average coastline recession and the increase in the alongshore variability in coastline position are greater at the Type 1 STI, compared to at the Type 2 STI. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both alongshore average coastline recession and future changes in alongshore variability in coastline position when assessing coastal hazards and risk on inlet-interrupted coasts to adequately inform climate adaptation strategies.

Sediment dynamics and morphological evolution in the Tagus Estuary inlet

The morphological evolution of the Tagus estuary inlet in the last century is analyzed in order to characterize its dynamics, explain its behavior and anticipate its future evolution. First, the evolution is characterized through a literature review, complemented by new data analyses. This review synthesizes the present understanding of the inlet's dynamics and highlights some key questions that remain unanswered. To address these questions, a 2DH process-based morphodynamic model is implemented and validated, and then used to refine the previous understanding of the inlet's dynamics. A new conceptual model, which highlights a seasonal behavior of the inlet's morphodynamics, is proposed. During winter time, the residual sediment transport is directed seaward along the navigation channel, towards the inlet mouth along the beaches adjacent to the inlet, and towards the estuary over the southern part of the ebb delta (Cachopo Sul). During the maritime summer, residual sediment fluxes are approximately half those occurring during winter. The relative importance of tidal flows increases, leading to sediment fluxes directed towards the southwest over the Cachopo Sul. The sediment deposits formed during the summer can be mobilized under specific wave conditions and transported to the northern stretch of the beaches to the south of the inlet. A positive feedback between the erosion of the Cachopo Sul – or, similarly, sea level rise – and the sediment fluxes over this bank suggests that the evolution of the bank observed during the last decades will continue in the foreseeable future.

Sediment Distribution, Retention and Morphodynamic Analysis of a River-Dominated Deltaic System

River deltas have received considerable attention due to coastal land loss issues caused by subsidence, storms, and sea level rise. Improved understanding of deltaic processes and dynamics is vital to coastal restoration efforts. This paper describes the application of process-based morphodynamic models to a prograding river delta. The analysis focuses on the flow and sediment dynamics amongst the interconnected channel network of the delta. The models were validated against observations of velocity and sediment concentrations for the Wax Lake Delta (WLD) of the Atchafalaya River system in Louisiana, USA. The WLD provides an opportunity as a natural laboratory for studying the processes associated with river dominated deltaic growth. It includes a network of bifurcated channels that self-organize and dynamically adjust, as the delta grows seaward to the Gulf of Mexico. The model results for a flood event show that 47% of the flow exits the system as channelized flow and the remaining 53% exits as overbank flow. The fine sediment (silt and clay) distribution was proportional with water fluxes throughout the channel network, whereas sand distribution was influenced by geometric attributes (size, invert elevation, and alignment) of the distributary channels. The long-term deltaic growth predicted by the model compares well with the observations for the period 1998–2012. This paper provides insights on how the distribution of flow and sediment amongst the interconnected delta channels influences the morphodynamics of the delta to reach a dynamic equilibrium within this relatively young deltaic system.

Two-Channel System Dynamics of the Outer Weser Estuary—A Modeling Study

In this paper, we unravel the mechanisms responsible for the development of the two-channel system in the Outer Weser Estuary. A process-based morphodynamic model is built based on a flat-bed approach using simplified boundary conditions and accelerated morphological development. The results are analyzed in two steps: first, by checking for morphodynamic equilibrium in the simulations and second, by applying a newly developed method that interprets simulations based on categorization of the two-channel system and cross-sectional correlation analysis. All simulations reach a morphodynamic equilibrium and develop two channels that vary considerably over time and between the simulations. Variations can be found in the location and depth of the two channels, the development of the dominant channel over time and the alteration in the dominance pattern. The conclusions are that the development of the two-channel system is mainly caused by the tides and the basin geometry. Furthermore, it is shown that the alternation pattern and period are dependent on the dominance of the tides compared to the influence of river discharge.

A novel coastal landscape model for sandy systems

A common measure to mitigate erosion along sandy beaches is the implementation of sand nourishments. The design and societal acceptance of such a soft mitigation measure demands information on the expected evolution at various time scales ranging from a storm event to multiple decades. Process-based morphodynamic models are increasingly applied to obtain detailed information on temporal behaviour. This paper discusses the process-based morphodynamic model applied to the Sand Motor and how the morphodynamic forecasts have benefitted from the findings of an interdisciplinary research program called NatureCoast. The starting point is the morphodynamic prediction of the Sand Motor made for an Environmental Impact Assessment in 2008 before construction began. After the construction, the model computations were optimized using the first-year field measurements and insights by applying advanced model features. Next, an integrated model was developed that seamlessly predicts the morphodynamics in both the subaqueous and subaerial domains of the Sand Motor. Decadal predictions illustrate the need to be able to resolve the marine and aeolian processes simultaneously in one modelling framework in the case of dynamic coastal landscapes. Finally, a novel morphodynamic acceleration technique was developed that allows for predicting the morphodynamics for multiple decades while incorporating storm events in one simulation. Combining the above-mentioned developments has led to a unique, open-source, process-based landscape tool for (complex) coastal sandy systems, which can stimulate further collaboration between research communities. Moreover, this work demonstrates the evolution from mono- to interdisciplinary forecasts of coastal evolution.

Numerical modeling of bedload and suspended load contributions to morphological evolution of the Seine Estuary (France)

This numerical modeling study (i) assesses the influence of the sediment erosion process on the sediment dynamics and subsequent morphological changes of a mixed-sediment environment, the macrotidal Seine estuary, when non-cohesive particles are dominant within bed mixtures (non-cohesive regime), and (ii) investigates respective contributions of bedload and suspended load in these dynamics. A three dimensional (3D) process-based morphodynamic model was set up and run under realistic forcings (including tide, waves, wind, and river discharge) during a 1-year period. Applying erosion homogeneously to bed sediment in the non-cohesive regime, i.e., average erosion parameters in the erosion law (especially the erodibility parameter, E0), leads to higher resuspension of fine sediment due to the presence of coarser fractions within mixtures, compared to the case of an independent treatment of erosion for each sediment class. This results in more pronounced horizontal sediment flux (two-fold increase for sand, +30% for mud) and erosion/deposition patterns (up to a two-fold increase in erosion over shoals, generally associated with some coarsening of bed sediment). Compared to observed bathymetric changes, more relevant erosion/deposition patterns are derived from the model when independent resuspension fluxes are considered in the non-cohesive regime. These results suggest that this kind of approach may be more relevant when local grain-size distributions become heterogeneous and multimodal for non-cohesive particles. Bedload transport appears to be a non-dominant but significant contributor to the sediment dynamics of the Seine Estuary mouth. The residual bedload flux represents, on average, between 17 and 38% of the suspended sand flux, its contribution generally increasing when bed sediment becomes coarser (can become dominant at specific locations). The average orientation of residual fluxes and erosion/deposition patterns caused by bedload generally follow those resulting from suspended sediment dynamics. Sediment mass budgets cumulated over the simulated year reveal a relative contribution of bedload to total mass budgets around 25% over large erosion areas of shoals, which can even become higher in sedimentation zones. However, bedload-induced dynamics can locally differ from the dynamics related to suspended load, resulting in specific residual transport, erosion/deposition patterns, and changes in seabed nature.

Long-term morphodynamic evolution of the Pearl River Delta from the perspective of energy flux and dissipation changes

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is an extremely complex, large-scale estuary system in China. In this study, a long-term process-based morphodynamic model was developed to investigate the characteristics of variations in energy flux and dissipation and their evolution alongside the hydrodynamic and topographic evolution of the PRD since the Holocene transgression maximum. The results show that the evolution of the dynamics and topography of the PRD are largely influenced by the geological and geomorphological structures of the region. Energy flux and dissipation in the inner estuary exhibited a patchy distribution, with areas of high energy flux appearing in deep troughs, near headlands, and in gorges containing bedrock islands, and areas of relatively small energy flux appearing in the flow shadow zones of the islands, tidal fluctuation confluence area, and shoals. Corresponding to the energy flux distribution, sediment accumulation also exhibited a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. The evolution of the coastline of the PRD is not driven from north to south, or from the river outlet to the downstream area. Rather, multiple deposition bodies simultaneously developed in the north and south without overlapping. With the deposition of sediment in the estuary, the isoamplitude lines of tidal waves were gradually extrapolated and the spatial distribution gradually shifted from the northwest to the southwest. This indicates the mutual transformation between the estuarine river and tidal power, and also reflects the development characteristics of the river system.

Importance of Wave Non-linearity for 3D Morphodynamic Modelling

Mengual, B.; Bertin, X., and Martins, K., 2020. Importance of wave non-linearity for 3D morphodynamic modelling. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1201-1205. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The effect of wave non-linearity on morphological changes of a sandbar is investigated through a realistic application at Duck Beach (North Carolina, USA) of a 3D state-of-the-art process-based morphodynamic model, which couples sediment transport, currents and waves (vortex force formalism). From simplified 1D/2DH models, previous studies highlighted that acceleration skewness of non-breaking waves over a sandbar could promote its progressive onshore migration. This process can counterbalance the offshore migration occurring under breaking waves through the development of strong offshore-directed “undertow” currents near the seabed. Based on the existing literature, an additional bedload flux associated to acceleration skewness of waves is implemented in the 3D model. Numerical experiments with and without this additional term clearly demonstrate the need to account for this supplementary wave-induced transport to reproduce onshore migration phases of the sandbar. Effectively, even a model integrating wave asymmetry effects on bedload flux estimates and 3D wave-current interactions fails to reproduce the observed onshore migration of the sandbar.

An Integrated Approach to Study the Morphodynamics of the Lignano Tidal Inlet

The morphological evolution of a tidal inlet is the combined result of tides and wind waves, which interact in a non-linear manner and over very different time-scales. Likewise, the presence of maritime structures built in the vicinity of the tidal inlet, for coastal or port defense or to stabilize the inlet itself, can greatly affect this dynamic equilibrium, changing erosional and depositional patterns of the adjacent shoreline. In this study, the narrowing phenomenon of the Lignano tidal inlet subsequent to the construction of the related port, is examined through an integrated approach in order to propose and verify a possible form of evolution. This approach is the result of the combination of three methods: the historical reconstruction of the shifting of the coastline, an empirical scheme which describes the qualitative morphology of a mixed-energy tidal inlet, and a process-based morphodynamic modeling, which adopts a bi-dimensional depth averaged (2DH) approach. The application of numerical modeling has required the definition of a reduced input set of data representing an average year, in particular for wind and tidal conditions, including the meteorological component. The magnitude and the directions of the simulated dominant sediment transport are coherent with real processes both from a qualitative and a quantitative point of view.

Dyke failures in the Province of Groningen (Netherlands) associated with the 1717 Christmas flood: a reconstruction based on geoscientific field data and numerical simulations

AbstractThe 1717 Christmas flood is one of the most catastrophic storm surges the Frisian coast (Netherlands and Germany) has ever experienced. With more than 13,700 casualties it is the last severe storm surge with a death toll of this order. At the same time, little is known about the hydrodynamic conditions and the morphological effects associated with this storm surge.In this study, 41 potential dyke failures in the Province of Groningen (Netherlands) associated with the 1717 Christmas flood were systematically reconstructed and mapped by using historical maps and literature and by analysing the recent topography in search of typical pothole structures and sediment fans. The dimensions of the sediment fans as derived from the topography show a good accordance with the dimensions documented by vibracore profiles, direct push tests and electrical resistivity tomography data taken at three fieldwork sites. Moreover, the fan dimensions closely agree with the dimensions as simulated using a process-based morphodynamic numerical model for one of the three sites, the village of Wierhuizen. Consequently, the recent topography is still indicative for the locations and dimensions of dyke failures and sediment fans associated with the 1717 Christmas flood. Considering the large number of detected dyke failures (41) and the large dimensions of the potholes and particularly of the sediment fans up to a few hundred metres wide and up to 0.7 m thick, this study proves significant morphological effects of the 1717 Christmas flood on the mainland of the Province of Groningen.Based on the numerical simulation approach and the comparison with field data and field observations, a maximum seaward water level of 5 m NAP for the dyke failure at Wierhuizen during the Christmas flood can be derived. A similar maximum water level is indicated for the two other fieldwork sites Vierhuizen and Kohol, which is in good agreement with the maximum storm surge level of 4.62 m NAP historically documented for the city of Emden located almost 50 km to the east of Wierhuizen.The results of the current study demonstrate that the reconstruction of historical dyke failures based on (i) historical sources, (ii) recent lidar/high-resolution topographical data, (iii) multi-proxy sedimentary field data and (iv) hydro- and morphodynamic numerical simulations is a highly promising approach to derive hydrodynamic conditions and the morphological onshore response of the 1717 Christmas flood in the Province of Groningen. This knowledge is essential to improve our understanding of extreme storm surge dynamics, their influence on the coastal landscape and the associated hazards for the coastal population.

Modelling the two-way coupling of tidal sand waves and benthic organisms: a linear stability approach

We use a linear stability approach to develop a process-based morphodynamic model including a two-way coupling between tidal sand wave dynamics and benthic organisms. With this model we are able to study both the effect of benthic organisms on the hydro- and sediment dynamics, and the effect of spatial and temporal environmental variations on the distribution of these organisms. Specifically, we include two coupling processes: the effect of the biomass of the organisms on the bottom slip parameter, and the effect of shear stress variations on the biological carrying capacity. We discuss the differences and similarities between the methodology used in this work and that from ‘traditional’ (morphodynamics only) stability modelling studies. Here, we end up with a 2times 2 linear eigenvalue problem, which leads to two distinct eigenmodes for each topographic wave number. These eigenmodes control the growth and migration properties of both sand waves and benthic organisms (biomass). Apart from hydrodynamic forcing, the biomass also grows autonomously, which results in a changing fastest growing mode (FGM, i.e. the preferred wavelength) over time. As a result, in contrast to ‘traditional’ stability modelling studies, the FGM for a certain model outcome does not necessarily have to be dominant in the field. Therefore, we also analysed the temporal evolution of an initial bed hump (without perturbing biomass) and of an initial biomass hump (without perturbing topography). It turns out that these local disturbances may trigger the combined growth of sand waves and spatially varying biomass patterns. Moreover, the results reveal that the autonomous benthic growth significantly influences the growth rate of sand waves. Finally, we show that biomass maxima tend to concentrate in the region around the trough and lee side slope of sand waves, which corresponds to observations in the field.

Morphodynamic Acceleration Techniques for Multi-Timescale Predictions of Complex Sandy Interventions

Thirty one percent (31%) of the world’s coastline consists of sandy beaches and dunes that form a natural defense protecting the hinterland from flooding. A common measure to mitigate erosion along sandy beaches is the implementation of sand nourishments. The design and acceptance of such a mitigating measure require information on the expected evolution at time scales from storms to decades. Process-based morphodynamic models are increasingly applied, together with morphodynamic acceleration techniques, to obtain detailed information on this wide scale of ranges. This study shows that techniques for the acceleration of the morphological evolution can have a significant impact on the simulated evolution and dispersion of sandy interventions. A calibrated Delft3D model of the Sand Engine mega-nourishment is applied to compare different acceleration techniques, focusing on accuracy and computational times. Results show that acceleration techniques using representative (schematized) wave conditions are not capable of accurately reproducing the morphological response in the first two years. The best reproduction of the morphological behavior of the first five years is obtained by the brute force simulations. Applying input filtering and a compression factor provides similar accuracy yet with a factor five gain in computational cost. An attractive method for the medium to long time scales, which further reduces computational costs, is a method that uses representative wave conditions based on gross longshore transports, while showing similar results as the benchmark simulation. Erosional behavior is captured well in all considered techniques with variations in volumes of about 1 million m 3 after three decades. The spatio-temporal variability of the predicted alongshore and cross-shore distribution of the morphological evolution however have a strong dependency on the selected acceleration technique. A new technique, called ’brute force merged’, which incorporates the full variability of the wave climate, provides the optimal combination of phenomenological accuracy and computational efficiency (a factor of 20 faster than the benchmark brute force technique) at both the short and medium to long time scales. This approach, which combines realistic time series and the mormerge technique, provides an attractive and flexible method to efficiently predict the evolution of complex sandy interventions at time scales from hours to decades.

Process-based morphodynamic modeling of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale: Controls on estuarine evolution and future trends

Understanding the decadal morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and deltas and their controls is of vital importance regarding management for estuarine function and sustainable development. This work addresses this issue by applying a process-based model system (Delft3D) to hindcast and then forecast the morphodynamic evolution of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale. Forced by the river and tides, the model considers sand-mud mixture and the variations of river water discharge and sediment discharge. The morphodynamic model is validated against three periods, i.e., an accretion period (1958–1978), an erosion period (1986–1997) and a recent accretion period with human activities (2002−2010). Model results show good performance with respect to spatial erosion and deposition patterns, sediment volume changes, and hypsometry curves. The model reveals quite different behaviors for mud transport between the dry and wet seasons, which is subject to the prescription of river boundary conditions and bed composition. We define six scenarios to project evolution to the year 2030 under decreased river inputs and increased relative sea level. The simulations reveal that overwhelming amount of erosion will likely occur in the inner and mouth bar area of the estuary. Particularly, the mouth zone will shift from net deposition before 2010 to net erosion by 2030, mainly because of decreasing sediment supply. Changes in water discharge have minor effects on the projected trend. Net erosion will be considerable when the sediment supply is extremely low (100Mtyr−1) due to the abundance of erodible modern sediment in the Yangtze Estuary. Erosion within the mouth bar area may be unexpected, including the deepening of the tidal inlet at East Chongming mudflat and the formation of a flood channel on the seaward side of Jiuduansha Shoal. Overall, the model results provide valuable information for sustainable delta management under changing conditions for both the Yangtze system and other similar estuaries and deltas with diminishing sediment supplies.

Modeling the influence of storms on sand wave formation: A linear stability approach

We present an idealized process-based morphodynamic model to study the effect of storms on sand wave formation. To this end, we include wind waves, wind-driven flow and, in addition to bed load transport, suspended load sediment transport. A linear stability analysis is applied to systematically study the influence of wave and wind conditions on growth and migration rates of small-amplitude wavy bed undulations. The effects of the wind and waves of various magnitudes and directions are investigated. Waves turn out to decrease the growth rate of sand waves, because their effect on the downhill gravitational transport component is stronger than their growth-enhancing effect. The wind wave effect is strongest for wind waves perpendicular to the tidal current. In the case of a symmetrical tidal current, wind-driven flow tends to breach the symmetry, thus causing sand wave migration. Wind effects on sand wave behavior are strongly influenced by the Coriolis effect, in magnitude as well as direction. Stirring due to wind waves enhances sand wave migration. Next to bed load transport, suspended load also has a growing and a decaying mechanism, being the perturbed flow and the perturbed suspended sediment concentration respectively. The decaying mechanism outcompetes the growing mechanism for bed forms with shorter wavelengths, resulting in an increase in the preferred wavelength. Wind waves increase the growth rate due to suspended load, but this is outcompeted by the reduction in growth rate by wind waves due to bed load transport. We conclude that storms significantly influence sand wave dynamics in their formation stage.

Exploratory morphodynamic hindcast of the evolution of the abandoned Yellow River delta, 1578–1855 CE

The abandoned Yellow River delta (AYD), which formed when the Yellow River flowed into the Southern Yellow Sea between 1128 and 1855CE, is a representative example of the sensitivity of deltas to modifications in their environments. In this study, we established a process-based morphodynamic model to explore the morphological evolution of one such large-scale fine-grained delta (the AYD before 1855 CE). The uncertainties in the model settings, which are inevitable when historical data are insufficient, were assessed together with the corresponding influences on the evolution of the deltaic system by considering a series of scenarios. The results indicate that the strength of local tidal forcing is the key factor that determines the shape and evolutionary trend of the delta. Sediment input discharge and the slope of the initial coastal profile have a considerable effect on the overall size of the delta and the relative ratio between subaerial and subaqueous parts of the delta, respectively. Based on the evaluation of the uncertainties and a comparison with historical maps, the simulated AYD was evaluated to be reliable. Through an analysis of the temporal delta evolution and residual sediment transport, the morphological evolution of the AYD before 1855CE was investigated. The southern delta grew as the shoals merged with the mainland, which is in agreement with an existing hypothesis (Zhang, 1984), whereas the accretion of the northern delta was independent from the shoals in the northern part. Additionally, suggestions are made regarding the distribution of the AYD at the end of its progradation stage, which provides fundamental information for analyzing subsequent erosion processes since 1855CE. This study differs from existing studies on the AYD, which are all based on geological approaches. It provides insight into the evolution of the AYD through an alternative means, viz. a process-based morphodynamic-modeling approach.

Assessment of three dredging plans for a wave-dominated inlet

Many small wave-dominated inlets are naturally unstable and require regular dredging. To mitigate the costs of these operations, the dredged channels should be designed to bring the inlet close to equilibrium and minimise flood dominance. However, it is often unclear how to optimise the configuration of the channels. This study focuses on a small lagoon on the western Portuguese coast that has been subject to frequent and diverse interventions. A process-based morphodynamic model is applied to compare the dredging plan that has been followed for the last 15 years with two new alternatives. These alternative dredging plans increase the tidal prism and reduce flood dominance, mainly due to the higher channel cross-section. Secondary transverse channels do not affect the morphodynamics significantly. For future dredging operations, it is suggested that the bottom depth of the main natural channel be dredged to chart datum and a secondary channel be added to the previous channel with the same bottom depth and half of the channel width.

Sandbar and beach-face evolution on a prototype coarse sandy barrier

On steep beaches, the cross-shore movement of sand in response to ‘erosive’ storm waves and ‘accretive’ swell waves can lead to temporal changes between a barred winter profile and a non-barred summer profile with a pronounced berm in the upper swash zone. Despite recent improvements in predicting berm formation and evolution within process-based morphodynamic models, substantial demand for improvement in understanding swash processes and associated surf–swash sand exchange remains. Here, we analyze bed level data collected on a near-prototype, 4.5-m high and 75-m wide sandy beach (median grain diameter D50=430μm) with a lagoon situated at its landward side. In particular, we distinguish between surf–swash sand exchange (time scale of tens of minutes to hours), the net effect of single and multiple swash events on the entire beach face (time scale of a few seconds to hours), and instantaneous bed variability at 3 cross-shore locations within individual swashes. During ‘erosive’ waves (Hs=0.8m, Tp=8s) sand on the initially 1:15 planar profile was predominantly eroded from the inner surf zone to be deposited in the outer surf zone as a sandbar, indicating minimal surf–swash sand exchange. Subsequent ‘accretive’ waves (Hs=0.6m, Tp=12s) caused substantially larger surf–swash sand exchange: the pre-existing sandbar migrated onshore and decayed, with the sand ending up on the beach face in a prominent (up to 0.7m high), steep (1:6) berm. We found the dynamics of the berm to be governed primarily by wave conditions and the antecedent morphology, with ground water gradients of additional importance when morphodynamic feedback between swash flow and the berm is small. The observed bed level change within a swash and averaged over a swash event could be substantial (several centimeters) during all wave conditions, but the net (i.e., averaged over multiple swash events) bed level change was strongly suppressed because erosive and accretionary swashes nearly balanced. In addition, the local beach face slope could be instantaneously ≈25% steeper or shallower than the median slope, or the initial or final slope. We anticipate that our data will stimulate new model development, as to increase the range of conditions and settings in which morphodynamic models can be applied realistically and reliably.

First-order uncertainty analysis using Algorithmic Differentiation of morphodynamic models

We present here an efficient first-order second moment method using Algorithmic Differentiation (FOSM/AD) which can be applied to quantify uncertainty/sensitivities in morphodynamic models. Changes with respect to variable flow and sediment input parameters are estimated with machine accuracy using the technique of Algorithmic Differentiation (AD). This method is particularly attractive for process-based morphodynamic models like the Telemac-2D/Sisyphe model considering the large number of input parameters and CPU time associated to each simulation.The FOSM/AD method is applied to identify the relevant processes in a trench migration experiment (van Rijn, 1987). A Tangent Linear Model (TLM) of the Telemac-2D/Sisyphe morphodynamic model (release 6.2) was generated using the AD-enabled NAG Fortran compiler. One single run of the TLM is required per variable input parameter and results are then combined to calculate the total uncertainty.The limits of the FOSM/AD method have been assessed by comparison with Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Similar results were obtained assuming small standard deviation of the variable input parameters. Both settling velocity and grain size have been identified as the most sensitive input parameters and the uncertainty as measured by the standard deviation of the calculated bed evolution increases with time.