Currently, risk stratification is the most difficult problem in prostate cancer (PCa) management. Gleason grading cannot adequately predict cancer progression. This study aimed to identify chromosome-specific segment size alterations that could aid risk stratification and predict metastasis using a retrospective cohort-study strategy. A binary logistic regression model was generated using 16 chromosome-specific segments with size alterations (deletions and amplifications) that showed associations with disease stage (primary versus metastatic). The regression model was trained with the MSKCC PIK3R1 PCa cohort (n = 1417), and validated with the TCGA Firehose Legacy (n = 500), MSKCC Prostate Oncogenome Project (n = 218), and the SU2C/PCF Dream Team (n = 150) PCa cohorts. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to predict metastasis between primary tumours with metastasis (n = 54) and primary tumours without metastasis (n = 54) was tested. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model at disease stage stratification ranged from 69.02% to 88.55%, 72.8% to 86.00% and 66.30% to 89.50%, respectively. The model also showed good performance at metastasis prediction with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 57.41%, 62.96% and 51.85%, respectively. The study conclusion was that chromosome-specific segment size alterations can aid risk stratification and metastasis prediction. The significance of the study findings is that in combinations with clinical, biochemical, and histopathological variables, chromosome-specific alterations could improve current risk stratification and prediction models for PCa.
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