Probability Of Net Present Value Research Articles

Bioeconomic analysis of the production of marine shrimp in greenhouses using the biofloc technology system

This study analyzes the investment in Penaeus (Litopenaeus) vannamei shrimp production in greenhouses using the biofloc technology system (BFT). Considering bioeconomic variables, a sensitivity analysis was performed with data collected over the course of 10 years to evaluate program efficiency. The parameters considered include a stocking density of 400 shrimp/m2, which reached a productivity rate of 3.84 kg/m2 (69,120 kg/year—three cycles), a final mean weight of 12 g, and a feed conversion rate of 1.3. The results obtained had a net present value (NPV) of US$ 904,947.21, net future value (NFV) of US$ 2,401,094.35, equivalent annual value (EAV) of US$ 148,861.38, payback (PB) of 2 years and 4 months, discounted payback period (DPP) of 2 years and 10 months, profitability index (PI) of 2.59, internal rate of return (IRR) of 41.23%, and a modified internal rate of return (MIRR) of 21.25%. However, shrimp with a final mean weight of 15 g resulted in an NPV of US$ 2,522,150.62, NFV of US$ 6,692,016.44, EAV of US$ 414,886.98, a PB of 1 year and 2 months, DPP of 1 year and 2 months, PI of 5.43, IRR of 89.13%, and an MIRR of 30.57%. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) concluded that the probability of NPV being negative is 0. The analysis confirms that P. vannamei production using the BFT system is a financially sustainable activity.

Own Grain Storage Structures: Is It Worth Investing?

Grain storage is strategic for agribusiness and therefore, it is important to consider the usefulness and benefits of its implementation. This study aims to identify the economic and financial viability of investing in grain storage structure at farm level using capital budgeting techniques. Considering the particularities of farms in the Midwest region of Brazil, the following investment valuation techniques were used: Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Uniform Annual Worth (EUAW), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR), Discounted Payback (DP), Profitability Index (PI), Benefit/ Cost Ratio (B/C), Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The results of NPV and EUAW were positive. The results of IRR was 14.08% and MIRR was 11.39%, with a payback of 11.81 years, an PI of US$ 1.31 and a B/C ratio of 3.16. From the risk analysis, it can be inferred that the investment is low risk since there is a 99.97% probability of NPV being greater than zero. Therefore, grain storage is a potentially viable alternative for increasing the competitiveness and wealth of Brazilian farmers, even in the context of an emerging economy.

Stochastic simulation of the economic viability of feedlot steers fed with different proportions of concentrate

The economic viability of feedlot zebu bulls, slaughtered at 450 kg after 90 days of feeding with diets consisting of different proportions of concentrate in dry matter (40, 60 or 80%), was estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, with or without the inclusion of Spearman rank correlations among random input variables, stochastic dominance (DOM) and sensitivity analysis (SENS). The roughage used was chopped sugar cane. Cash flow with indicators of performance, and probability distributions of all items of cost and revenue (from 2003 to 2014), were used to stimulate net present value (NPV), the financial indicator. Latin hypercube sampling and a Mersenne Twister random number generator were employed for the simulation with 2000 interactions. The risk was found to be more accurately estimated when correlations between random input variables were included (probability of NPV ≥ 0 ± standard deviation was 35 ± 166.05% and 31 ± 139.75% for the simulation without and with correlation, respectively). Considering this result, DOM and SENS were only carried out including these correlations. The expected value for NPV was similar between the different levels of concentrate (average USD -62/animal and NPV ≥ 0 of 33%) according to DOM analysis of simulations including correlations. From the SENS analysis, the final weight, finished cattle price, feeder cattle price and initial weight were the items with the greatest influence on NPV, regardless of the level of concentrate used, followed by intake and the cost-related items of diet and minimum rate of attractiveness. Based on the results obtained by simulation, the direct benefit of feedlot could be classified as high risk, suggesting the increased use of Monte Carlo simulation for decision-making.

EFFECTS OF RECENT CORN AND ENERGY PRICES ON IRRIGATION INVESTMENT IN THE HUMID CLIMATE OF TENNESSEE

AbstractLittle is known about the impact of corn and energy prices on the profitability of irrigating corn in Tennessee. We evaluated the probability of a positive net present value (NPV) for center-pivot irrigation in Tennessee corn production. Three corn price series were employed to evaluate the effects of the shift in corn prices on the feasibility of irrigation. The recent rise in corn prices increased the probability of NPV being positive for irrigation investment. Future corn prices will need to remain high for investment in center-pivot irrigation to remain profitable under Tennessee growing conditions.