Probability Of Mistakes Research Articles

Mass detection in automated three dimensional breast ultrasound using cascaded convolutional neural networks

PurposeEarly detection of breast cancer has a significant effect on reducing its mortality rate. For this purpose, automated three-dimensional breast ultrasound (3-D ABUS) has been recently used alongside mammography. The 3-D volume produced in this imaging system includes many slices. The radiologist must review all the slices to find the mass, a time-consuming task with a high probability of mistakes. Therefore, many computer-aided detection (CADe) systems have been developed to assist radiologists in this task. In this paper, we propose a novel CADe system for mass detection in 3-D ABUS images. MethodsThe proposed system includes two cascaded convolutional neural networks. The goal of the first network is to achieve the highest possible sensitivity, and the second network’s goal is to reduce false positives while maintaining high sensitivity. In both networks, an improved version of 3-D U-Net architecture is utilized in which two types of modified Inception modules are used in the encoder section. In the second network, new attention units are also added to the skip connections that receive the results of the first network as saliency maps. ResultsThe system was evaluated on a dataset containing 60 3-D ABUS volumes from 43 patients and 55 masses. A sensitivity of 91.48% and a mean false positive of 8.85 per patient were achieved. ConclusionsThe suggested mass detection system is fully automatic without any user interaction. The results indicate that the sensitivity and the mean FP per patient of the CADe system outperform competing techniques.

Inter-Plan Blue Cross Blue Shield Programs - A Case Study in Payor Claims

The Blue Cross Blue Shield (BCBS) Inter-Plan Programs that comprise BlueCard, National Accounts, and the Federal Employee Program (FEP) are significant to broaden the healthcare benefits for all members by offering consistent and supreme features. With the help of these programs, it is possible to access a wide range of services in the healthcare industry both on a country level and across the world. Though these benefits are available for all members, people who travel frequently find these pros appealing. In addition, members who are shifting from burn to another place gain more benefits from these offerings. Furthermore, EDI 837 transactions enhance smooth submissions by offering an effective exchange of information across all related elements of BCBS. This rapid exchange of information among coordinators enhances the functionality of the system by real-time collaboration which increases the level of satisfaction among all members. This further reduces the possible delays as well as the probability of mistakes. Unlike their competitors including CVS Health as well as Aetna, BCBS features offer a wide range of appealing prospects making it an ideal choice for those looking for inclusive healthcare insurance. BCBS Inter-Plan Programs' requisite assortment of effective and robust care plus inclusive accessibility tend to bring diversity in healthcare outcomes throughout the BCBS system.

Blockchain-Based Solutions Supporting Reliable Healthcare for Fog Computing and Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Integration

The Internet of Things (IoT) has radically transformed how patient information and healthcare monitoring are monitored and recorded and has revolutionized the area by ensuring regular 24 × 7 tracking without costly and restricted human resources and with a low mistake probability. The Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) is a subsection of the Internet of things (IoT) that uses medical equipment as things or nodes to enable cost-effective and efficient patient monitoring and recording. The IoMT can cope with a wide range of problems, including observing patients in hospitals, monitoring patients in their homes, and assisting consulting physicians and nurses in monitoring health conditions at regular intervals and issuing warning signals if emergency care is necessary. EEG signals, electrocardiograms (ECGs), blood sugar levels, blood pressure levels, and other conditions can be examined. In crucial situations, quick and real-time analysis is essential, and failure to provide careful attention can be fatal. A cloud-based IoT platform cannot handle these latency-sensitive conditions. Fog computing (FC) is a novel paradigm for assigning, processing, and storing resources to IoT devices with limited resources. Where substantial processing power or storage is required, all nodes in a fog computing scheme can delegate their jobs to local fog nodes rather than forwarding them to the cloud module at a greater distance. Identifying potential security risks and putting in place adequate security measures are critical. This work aims to examine a blockchain (BC) as a potential tool for mitigating the impact of these difficulties in conjunction with fog computing. This research shows that blockchain can overcome fog computing’s privacy and security concerns. It also discusses blockchain’s issues and limitations from the perspective of fog computing (FC) and the IoMT.

Lipid transfer protein syndrome: How to save a life through careful education

IntroductionLipid transfer proteins (nsLTPs) are ubiquitous allergens. Patients affected by nsLTP syndrome experience symptoms to various plant-derived foods, ranging from local manifestations to anaphylaxis, the critical treatment of which is represented by self-administration of adrenaline. The principle aim of this study is to assess how dietary recommendations influence the occurrence of new and severe cases and if poly-sensitization to different nsLTPs may play a role. We also investigated about the appropriate use of adrenaline auto-injector during the episodes of anaphylaxis. Moreover, we examinated how other features (ie, co-sensitization to profilin and PR-10 and the presence of risk co-factors) affect these events. Materials and methodsWe evaluated 78 patients allergic to nsLTPs, investigating adherence to diet and ability to use the adrenaline auto-injector. Number of sensitization to nsLTPs, co-sensitization to other panallergens, and presence of risk factors for new reactions were also assessed. Diagnosis was based on clinical history and positivity to in vivo and in vitro tests. During the follow-up, compliance, diet modifications, and new reactions were noted, and re-training for the use of epinephrine auto-injector was performed. At the last visit we evaluated the patients’ ability to use the self-injector. ResultsThe whole of fruits belonging to the Rosaceae family emerged as the most frequent culprit foods (28%), followed by walnut (17%), peanut (17%), and hazelnut (10%). At the baseline visit 23% of the patients described the presence of a risk factor during the allergic reaction (mainly nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs] and exercise). Forty-five percent of the patients reported anaphylactic reactions; no association between the type of food and the severity of the reactions was found. The presence of sensitization to 4 or more nsLTPs was associated to more severe reactions (p < .05; OR 1.67). During the follow-up 38% of the patients experienced at least 1 new allergic reaction: in 79% of them the culprit food was previously tolerated, and in 69% the reaction was an anaphylaxis. Only 47% of the patients showed a proper use of adrenaline auto-injector during the final evaluation, but a significant correlation between periodic education and reduction of the probability of mistakes in the use was reported (p < .05; OR 0.34). Furthermore, an association between co-sensitization to PR-10 (in particular Bet v1) and profilin and less severe symptoms was found, but without a significant odds ratio. ConclusionA careful education aimed to the prevention of new reactions, through dietary restrictions and avoidance of risk co-factors, and to the management of anaphylaxis, through the training for the correct use of adrenaline auto-injector, should be a routine practice in nsLTP syndrome.

ИНТЕРАКТИВНЫЙ ТРЕНАЖЕР ДЛЯ ОБУЧЕНИЯ ПЕРСОНАЛА ОАО «РЖД» НАВЫКАМ ОПЕРАТИВНЫХ ПЕРЕКЛЮЧЕНИЙ

The paper is devoted to decrease of a number of accidents and electrical injuries in electrical power engineering organizations. The author proposes an interactive complex of training exercises aimed at training electrical personnel of alternating current railways in safe methods of operating switching in schemes of electric substations. Practising a skill of virtual operating switching on a training simulator will allow the personnel to decrease the probability of mistakes in future, which will contribute to reduction of a number of accidents and injuries in operation. The developed training simulator adapts to the scheme of any traction substation on the JSC «RZD» railway network, which creates the possibility for replication of the product, enlargement of its functional possibilities and exchange of experience of its use.

Overview of automation tools for avionics verification

The existing verification automation tools for civil aircraft avionics are considered (particularly, formal methods, hardware-in-the-loop testing, outsource sendees). Key solutions presented on the market are described, their advantages and weak points are identified. Also, it is determined a promising field is the automation of graphic and aural information testing during the cockpit human-machine interface assessment (e.g. for cockpit display and flight warning systems). This type of verification is practically not automated nowadays. The architecture of a complex for the mentioned task is proposed, the methodology of verification using the described tool is considered either. The camera and microphone usage for monitoring of images and sound alerts which is being outputted to the crew allows applying of computer recognition algorithms during verification. It will allow reducing the time and cost expenses for human-machine interface testing as well as reducing the probability of mistakes could be made during fully manual testing. In addition, the proposed concept makes its application possible for any technical objects with a user interface in other industry areas (not just in aviation) such as space, automotive, shipbuilding, etc.

When are efficient conventions selected in networks?

We study the determinants of convergence to efficient conventions in coordination games played on networks, when agents focus on past performance (imitative play). Previous theoretical results provide an incomplete picture and suggest potentially-complex interactions between the features of dynamics and behavior. We conducted an extensive simulation study (with approximately 1.12 million simulations) varying network size, interaction and information radius, the probability of actual interaction, the probability of mistakes, tie-breaking rules, and the process governing revision opportunities. Our main result is that “more interactions,” be it in the form of larger interaction neighborhoods or of a higher interaction probability, lead to less coordination on efficient conventions. A second observation, confirming previous but partial theoretical results, is that a large network size relative to the size of neighborhoods (a “large world”) facilitates convergence to efficient conventions. Third, a larger information neighborhood helps efficiency because it increases visibility of efficient payoffs across the network. Last, technical details of the dynamic specification as tie-breaking or inertia, while often relevant for specific theoretical results, appear to be of little empirical relevance in the larger space of dynamics.

Interoperable Platform to Report Polymerase Chain Reaction SARS-CoV-2 Tests From Laboratories to the Chilean Government: Development and Implementation Study.

BackgroundTesting, traceability, and isolation actions are a central strategy defined by the World Health Organization to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. In this sense, the countries have had difficulties in counting the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2. Errors in reporting results are a common factor, as well as the lack of interoperability between laboratories and governments. Approaches aimed at sending spreadsheets via email expose patients’ privacy and have increased the probability of errors due to retyping, which generates a delay in the notification of results.ObjectiveThis study aims to design and develop an interoperable platform to report polymerase chain reaction (PCR) SARS-CoV-2 tests from laboratories to the Chilean government.MethodsThe methodology to design and develop the interoperable platform was comprised of six well-structured stages: (1) creation of a minimum data set for PCR SARS-CoV-2 tests, (2) modeling processes and end points where institutions interchange information, (3) standards and interoperability design, (4) software development, (5) software testing, and (6) software implementation.ResultsThe interoperable Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) platform to report PCR SARS-CoV-2 tests from laboratories to the Chilean government was successfully implemented. The platform was designed, developed, tested, and implemented following a structured methodology. The platform’s performance to 1000 requests resulted in a response time of 240 milliseconds, throughput of 28.3 requests per second, and process management time of 131 milliseconds. The security was assured through a private network exclusive to the Ministry of Health to ensure confidentiality and integrity. The authorization and authentication of laboratories were implemented with a JavaScript Object Notation Web Token. All the PCR SARS-CoV-2 tests were accessible through an application programming interface gateway with valid credentials and the right access control list.ConclusionsThe platform was implemented and is currently being used by UC Christus Laboratory. The platform is secure. It was tested adequately for confidentiality, secure authorization, authentication, and message integrity. This platform simplifies the reporting of PCR SARS-CoV-2 tests and reduces the time and probability of mistakes in counting positive cases. The interoperable solution with FHIR is working successfully and is open for the community, laboratories, and any institution that needs to report PCR SARS-CoV-2 tests.

ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION TREATMENT WITH COMBINATION OF MESENCHYMAL STEM CELL DERIVED EXOSOMES AND FOCUSED LOW-INTENSIVE SHOCK WAVE THERAPY

Relevance. Erectile dysfunction brings basic problem of urology, andrology and sexology. Erectile dysfunction have significant impact on quality of life, sexual and reproductive health and psychological condition in men. Novel experimental and clinical studies a several methods of regenerative medicine shoved simultaneous impact on main pathogenetic aims showing significant levels of clinical efficacy.Aim – to develop and analyze clinical effects of mesenchymal stem cell-derived exosomes intracavernous injections and low-intensity extracorporeal shock-wave therapy combination in patients with severe erectile dysfunction on background of metabolic syndrome and atherosclerosis.Materials and methods. A prospective clinical study was conducted on a contingent of 38 patients of “Men’s Health Clinic” (Kyiv, Ukraine) suffering from severe organic erectile dysfunction (ICD-10:N52.9; International index of erectile function score lower than 7) on the background of metabolic syndrome (ICD-10: E88.81) and generalized atherosclerosis (ICD-10: I70.9).Study results. Therapeutics model of combined application of mesenchymal stem cell-derived exosomes intracavernous injections and low-intensity extracorporeal shock-wave therapy showed significant positive impact of applied therapeutic model according to IIEF-5, EHS scores as well as due to pharmacodoppler-sonography data. Therapeutics model of application low-intensity extracorporeal shock-wave therapy also showed significant positive impact on same diagnostic categories.Conclusion. Comparison of post-therapeutic data between MG and CG showed absence of significant differences in all categories besides mean PSV, but values of statistical mistake probability are very close to significance threshold for IIEF-5 severe and moderate categories as well as EHS grades 4 and 2, what highlights perspective of further comparison studies on larger population scales, longer observation periods or less severe forms of ED.

PERSPECTIVES FOR THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN FORENSIC MEDICINE (LITERATURE REVIEW)

It is known that in the work of forensic medicine experts have to process and evaluate a large amount of information, which may belong to different types of data – the site inspection protocols, photographic materials, macroscopic data obtained during the autopsy of the corpse , the results of laboratory tests, medical records etc. All the received data should be studied, categorized and evaluated according to international standards.Aim of the work. Analysis of possibilities and limitations of application of artificial neural networks in forensic practice.Conclusions. Modern computer technologies of artificial intelligence (artificial neural networks) can help in the handling of forensic medicine data, which, in turn, will reduce to a minimum the probability of mistakes in preparation of expert conclusions. The algorithms used in artificial neural networks, as a result of processing different types of input data, can direct them to the resulting categorized outputs and structure them. The structure of artificial neural networks allows them to be used in the forensic identification of an unknown person, thus eliminating errors that may be made by a specialist and, accordingly, increasing the effectiveness of such examinations.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ СИСТЕМИ АВТОМАТИЗАЦІЇ ПРОЦЕСІВ ПОБУДОВИ ГІБРИДНОЇ ІНФРАСТРУКТУРИ З ПЕРЕНЕСЕННЯМ ВСІХ КОНФІГУРАЦІЙНИХ ДАНИХ

The main features of the automated system development for synchronizing user data and various aspects of the Exchange Server infrastructure are discussed in the article. The system must make an inventory of the existing environment, make reports, accept data of the enterprise wishes and independently configure the components involved in user migration. The system must also restore all user settings that existed before the migration. It is the description of the automation of the building a hybrid infrastructure processes with the transfer of all configuration data and subsequent automatic configuration of the data migration path in a large enterprise with a distributed infrastructure of data centers. The automation of step-by-step migration is considered, namely: automation of building a hybrid infrastructure based on Microsoft Exchange Server and Office 365. In terms of the method of transfer from the local system to the cloud, "export / import" is used to migrate data policies and configurations that do not change often. User data that is migrated by another system is used but not developed. An automated system designed to automate the transfer of data from the local infrastructure in the Exchange Server environment. The software product has a functionality that automates almost all the work on the analysis of local infrastructure and further configuration of the cloud part, which minimizes the impact of the human factor on the success of projects. There is also a module that defines the wishes of the business on the conditions of migration, which allows you to dynamically detect the path of data migration. All data, collected during infrastructure analysis, as well as system user data, is exported by Microsoft Exchange to external media files as CSV files to be used by other modules and as TXT (HTML if required) for a tabular report that analyzed by staff. This kind of development allows many large companies to avoid the problems connected with the complex process of migrating global local infrastructure parameters to the cloud environment and improves the process of enterprise data analysis with subsequent automatic management of data migration in IT environments with complex network infrastructure. Time for pre-migration work is significantly reduced, as well as the probability of mistakes, made by staff, is reduced.

Market Researches which Are Conducted for Introduction of New Product on the Market

At introduction of new product there are many risks which threaten success of goods in the market. To minimize risk, it is necessary to use the correct marketing of a new product, the correct receptions which are capable draw the attention of consumers on just appeared, little-known a product, to make it demanded and it is bought. The main thing, to each business to find the effective strategy of development and advance of a new product. Marketing of a new product differs from traditional market researches. And, first of all, differs in the fact that the assessment of prospects of a new product at stages of its development is carried out in the absence of the market, at total absence of consumers. It creates certain difficulties and increases the probability of mistakes in researches. There are many marketing techniques of advance of new products and services in the modern market. Therefore to businesses and businessmen, for advance of a new product it is necessary to study, first of all, and to effectively use the existing marketing arsenal. Of course, each businessman has to bring the nuances in the experienced methods of marketing. To adapt these receptions for the concrete business, for the marketing of a new product. Keywords: Market researches, new goods, marketing of new goods, technique of promotion of goods, trial marketing, experiment

Covert Communications Against an Adversary With Low-SNR Sensing Capability in Nakagami Fading

We show how to achieve covert communications in the presence of a warden equipped with sensing capabilities, even at a low signal to noise ratio (SNR). The warden Willie tries to minimize its false alarm and missed detection probabilities for weak signals. To this end, Willie selects optimal detection threshold for sensing particular legitimate users who want to cover their communication. Our solution to guarantee covertness involves deriving the lower bound for the sum of missed detection and false alarm probabilities, i.e., the mistake at the warden. To hide the message exchange, we derive the conditions for the minimum probability of mistake at Willie to be greater than a threshold. Our simulation results elucidate the roles played by various parameters, such as the number of samples, the target mistake threshold, the amount of noise uncertainty, etc., in undetectable communications over Nakagami fading. Our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of positive-rate hidden communications against a watchful adversary whose receiver is designed to be sensitive to weak SNR.

COMPROMISO ORGANIZACIONAL Y PRODUCTIVIDAD DE LOS TRABAJADORES EN PROTEGE ORIENTE S.A., PUCALLPA, 2019

El objetivo del estudio es determinar el grado deasociación existente entre el compromiso organizacionaly productividad de los colaboradores en Protege OrienteS.A., Pucallpa, 2019, las dimensiones e indicadores de lavariable: el compromiso organizacional, fueron adaptadosdel trabajo de Fuentes (2018), de la misma manera loselementos de la variable: productividad de los trabajadores,se adaptaron de Zapata (2018). El tipo de investigaciónfue aplicativo, el nivel descriptivo correlacional, la muestraestuvo compuesta por el total de la población, 54 personas,que trabajaron en la empresa de vigilancia privada, ProtegeOriente SA, Pucallpa. Mediante la prueba de hipótesis,unilateral de cola derecha, utilizándose el coeficiente rhode Spearman se determinó que existe relación directay significativa entre el compromiso organizacional yproductividad de los trabajadores en Protege Oriente S.A.,con la correlación de 0,794, estimada como asociaciónpositiva considerable, en tanto que el nivel de significanciade la prueba, tuvo un valor: s = 0.000 ˂ 0.05, el coeficientefue significativo en el nivel de 0.000, en consecuenciael nivel de confiabilidad es100 % que la correlación seaverdadera y 0.0 % de probabilidad de error

Implementasi UML Dan Grennfoot Untuk Membangun Aplikasi Pengucapan Bahasa Inggris

One of the materials in the English Language course is listening, namely the skill of hearing the pronunciation of English sentences. Learning listening must use native speaker or recording material so that the pronunciation is heard according to the original. If you use the course participants as a sound source, there is a high probability of mistakes in the pronunciation of words or sentences. Then an application is needed to help with course activities as tutors or native speakers in giving correct English pronunciation.&#x0D; In this research, English Pronunciation Application was built using the Greenfoot Application with the object oriented programming concept. This application is to help pronoun learning that can output audio when the object clicked. The development method uses SDLC, application modeling uses UML and testing using Black-box testing. The English pronunciation application is compiled into a .jar file so that it can be run on a computer with a Windows operating system that has JDK installed.&#x0D; The test results show that this English learning application can replace tutors, produce the right audio, and can replace native speakers. This can be seen from the results of the questionnaire showing 82%.

Ecological context and the probability of mistakes underlie speed choice

Abstract Movement is fundamental to the ecology of animals, and an animal's choice of movement speed determines the duration, energetic costs, and probability of success of any given activity. It is often assumed that animals should use maximum speeds when escaping from predators, but an increasing number of studies find animals rarely move as fast as they can in nature because faster speeds come with a greater chance of mistakes. Mathematical modelling suggests that, when escaping predators, prey animals should optimise speeds to simultaneously outrun their pursuer and minimise their probability of slipping. This can be particularly important when running along narrow structures like branches. When foraging, however, animals should avoid moving at high speeds, which are often energetically costly and decrease the ability to detect food or predators. In this study, we examined how trade‐offs between speed and probability of slipping influenced the speed choice of wild antechinus (Antechinus mysticus) during escaping and foraging behaviours. We also examined how this trade‐off affected foraging behaviour. Antechinus ran significantly faster when escaping (1.207 ± 0.033 m/s) than foraging (0.145 ± 0.002 m/s), and slipped 37% more often during escapes. However, foraging antechinus still slipped frequently on narrow branches, despite running an order of magnitude more slowly than they did on wide branches. Furthermore, antechinus slipped at lower speeds when foraging than they did when escaping, suggesting that avoiding mistakes is less highly prioritized when foraging. Antechinus visited the feeding station accessed by a wide branch more frequently (and ate more while there) compared with feeding stations accessed by narrow branches, even when those branches were 33% or 67% shorter. This suggests that foraging decisions may be based on potential limitations to speed and the probability of slipping over distance to cover. Though activities such as running can be fundamental to animals’ fitness, a general framework to understand how animals select speeds in nature is still being developed. We test the assumption that animals choose running speeds to minimise their motor mistakes, and demonstrate the cost of mistakes is likely to be different across ecological and behavioural contexts. A plain language summary is available for this article.

Intelligent Anti Misoperation System for Power Grid Dispatching of Regions and Counties

With the power system of large capacity, large units, high voltage development trend, dispatching operations becoming more frequent, complex, and probability of mistakes are increasing. For the existing grid dispatching integrated system loss of anti-error function, single dispatching function, low efficiency, according to the existing conditions of Anshun Power Supply Bureau, the Intelligent anti misoperation system for power grid dispatching of regions and counties is designed, introduced the technologies such as the intelligent anti misoperation analysis, automatic process control, and interactive constraint, the system has the advantages of scientific, reasonable and efficient, and providing the technical support for anti misoperation of regions and counties.

Can Words Get in the Way? The Effect of Deliberation in Collective Decision Making

We quantify the effect of deliberation on the decisions of US appellate courts. We estimate a model in which strategic judges communicate before casting their votes and then compare the probability of mistakes in the court with deliberation with a counterfactual of no communication. The model has multiple equilibria, and preferences and information parameters are only partially identified. We find that there is a range of parameters in the identified set—when judges tend to disagree ex ante or their private information is imprecise—in which deliberation can be beneficial; otherwise, deliberation reduces the effectiveness of the court.

Optimal running speeds when there is a trade‐off between speed and the probability of mistakes

Summary Do prey run as fast as they can to avoid capture? This is a common assumption in studies of animal performance, yet a recent mathematical model (Wheatley et al. Integrative and Comparative Biology, 55, 1166–1175; ) of escape behaviour predicts that animals should instead use speeds below their maximum capabilities even when running from predators. Fast speeds may compromise motor control and accuracy of limb placement, particularly as the animal runs along narrow structures like beams or branches. Mistakes decrease speed and increase the probability of capture. We tested several key assumptions and predictions of Wheatley et al.'s () model using wild‐caught northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus), a squirrel‐sized marsupial carnivore. We quantified the speeds of quolls as they traversed beams of differing width and expected animals should balance the benefits of higher speeds against the increased probability of mistakes when selecting speeds. We first explored whether the probability of mistakes when running along a beam increased at faster running speeds (speed‐accuracy trade‐off) and when the difficulty of a task was greater (narrower beam). In addition, we quantified the costs of locomotor mistakes to test the assumption that mistakes decreased overall running speed. Finally, we tested whether individual northern quolls modulated their running speeds when moving on narrow beams, which would decrease the probability of making catastrophic mistakes. We found quolls were more likely to make mistakes when running faster and on the narrower beam. Locomotor mistakes increased the total time needed to traverse the entire beam, and each mistake decreased average escape speed by around 50%, representing a substantial cost for slips or trips. To circumvent the costs of these mistakes, quolls voluntarily reduced speeds in situations when they are more likely to make a mistake (i.e. narrower beams), thereby allowing them to decrease the total time it took to traverse the beam. Our data provide support for the assumptions and predictions of Wheatley et al.'s () model of optimal escape speeds, and suggest that animals optimize rather than simply maximize speeds when running along challenging substrates. Our work provides a foundation for understanding the movement behaviour of animals when their objective is to escape predatory attacks, and demonstrates that animals should select their escape strategy based on how both the speed of movement and motor control affect task success. A lay summary is available for this article.

Can Words Get in the Way? The Effect of Deliberation in Collective Decision-Making

We quantify the effect of pre-vote deliberation on the decisions of US appellate courts. We estimate a model of strategic voting with incomplete information in which judges communicate before casting their votes, and then compare the probability of mistakes in the court with deliberation with a counterfactual of no pre-vote communication. The model has multiple equilibria, and judges’ preferences and information parameters are only partially identified. We find that there is a range of parameters in the identified set in which deliberation can be beneficial. Specifically, deliberation lowers the incidence of incorrect decisions when judges tend to disagree ex ante or their private information is relatively imprecise; otherwise, it tends to reduce the effectiveness of the court.