Probability Of High School Graduation Research Articles

Parental involvement and education outcomes of their children

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of parental involvement on the education outcomes of their children, specifically focusing on the completion of high school. It extends the existing literature by considering the characteristics of both children and parents, and by examining non-school-related parental involvement in a child’s everyday life. The analysis utilizes a publicly available database, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, with a sample of American respondents born between 1983 and 1984 who lived with both birth parents during their early teenage years. The study employs simple logistic regression and subclassification on propensity score to estimate causal treatment effects. The results indicate that higher parental involvement is associated with an increased probability of high school graduation, while stricter parental behaviour is found to decrease the expected likelihood of completing high school.

Ethnic studies increases longer-run academic engagement and attainment

Increased interest in anti-racist education has motivated the rapidly growing but politically contentious adoption of ethnic studies (ES) courses in US public schools. A long-standing rationale for ES courses is that their emphasis on culturally relevant and critically engaged content (e.g., social justice, anti-racism, stereotypes, contemporary social movements) has potent effects on student engagement and outcomes. However, the quantitative evidence supporting this claim is limited. In this preregistered regression-discontinuity study, we examine the longer-run impact of a grade 9 ES course offered in the San Francisco Unified School District. Our key confirmatory finding is that assignment to this course significantly increased the probability of high school graduation among students near the grade 8 2.0 grade point average (GPA) threshold used for assigning students to the course. Our exploratory analyses also indicate that assignment increased measures of engagement throughout high school (e.g., attendance) as well as the probability of postsecondary matriculation.

Does closing schools close doors? The effect of high school closings on achievement and attainment

This paper examines the effect of high school closures on student achievement and educational attainment. Previous studies primarily focus on effects of elementary school closings on test scores. This study furthers the literature by focusing on high school closures and examines several measures of achievement and attainment. I utilize student data from the Milwaukee Public School district and follow five freshman cohorts through high school. I find that school closings cause a negative shock to student attendance. Importantly, these closures also have long-run consequence both lowering the probability of high school graduation and college attendance.

Tribal Gaming and Educational Outcomes in the Next Generation

AbstractFollowing a series of federal policy changes and court rulings in the late 1980s, over 400 casinos owned by Native American tribes were opened throughout the United States, and expanded tribal gaming has transformed the economic development trajectories of many American Indian tribes. While most existing evaluations of tribal gaming's impacts focus on contemporaneous effects, the present paper evaluates whether the advent of tribal casinos affected educational outcomes in the subsequent generation of American Indian children. I assemble data on the adult educational outcomes of 11,647 American Indians across 36 counties who were children when a local casino was opened. I use these data to compare individuals who were relatively young at the time of a casino opening, and therefore had greater exposure to post‐gaming socioeconomic conditions, and individuals who were from the same county but were relatively old at the time of a casino opening, while also exploiting differences in the relative sizes of tribal gaming operations. Using this approach, I estimate that exposure to an average‐sized gaming operation during childhood increased adult educational attainment by .328 years and increased the probability of high school graduation and post‐secondary degree completion by 5 to 14 percent. No substantive improvements in adult educational outcomes are observed among white children from the same counties. The magnitudes of the estimates imply a relationship between family income during childhood and educational achievement that is similar to previous research within other low‐income populations.

Using Survival Analysis to Understand Graduation of Students With Disabilities

This study examined when students with disabilities graduated high school and how graduation patterns differed for students based on selected demographic and educational factors. Utilizing statewide data on students with disabilities from Massachusetts from 2005 through 2012, the author conducted discrete-time survival analysis to estimate the conditional probability of high school graduation in a given year after high school entry by disability category and placement in the general education setting. Results suggest that, across all disability categories, the peak conditional probability for graduation occurs 4 years after high school entry. In addition, students with disabilities who are fully included have higher graduation probability profiles than students with disabilities who are educated in substantially-separate settings.

Education Reform and Labor Market Outcomes: The Case of Argentina's Ley Federal De Educación

In the nineties Argentina implemented a large education reform (Ley Federal de Educación - LFE) that mainly implied the extension of compulsory education in two additional years. The timing in the implementation substantially varied across provinces, providing a source of identification for unraveling the causal effect of the reform. The estimations from difference-in-difference models suggest that the LFE had a positive impact on years of education and the probability of high school graduation. The impact on labor market outcomes—employment, hours of work and wages—was positive for the non-poor youths, but almost null for the poor.

A Peer-Led High School Transition Program Increases Graduation Rates Among Latino Males

ABSTRACT The authors investigated the impact of a manualized high school transition program, the Peer Group Connection (PGC) program, on the graduation rate at a low-income, Mid-Atlantic high school. The program utilized 12th-grade student peer leaders to create a supportive environment for incoming ninth-grade students. Results of a randomized control trial demonstrated that male students who participated in the program during Grade 9 were significantly more likely to graduate from high school within 4 years than male students in the control group (81% vs. 63%). Findings suggest that peers can be effective in delivering a school-based, social emotional learning intervention and that it is possible to intervene in Grade 9 to influence the probability of high school graduation.

The kid's speech: The effect of stuttering on human capital acquisition

A number of studies have shown that childhood speech disorders such as stuttering are associated with lower test scores and educational attainment. However, it is unclear whether these associations are causal in nature or whether they can be explained by difficult-to-measure heterogeneity at the community, family, or individual level. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and ordinary least squares, we show that stuttering is negatively associated with high school grades, the probability of high school graduation, and the probability of college attendance. However, empirical specifications with family fixed effects or controls for learning disabilities such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder suggest that these associations can, in large part, be explained by difficult-to-measure heterogeneity.

Educating bright students in urban schools

Our study analyzes the impact of the International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme, a college-preparatory educational program designed for higher-achieving students, on high school academic achievement in Chicago Public Schools. We exploit exogenous variation in the offering of the program across schools over time with a difference-in-differences framework. We estimate a positive effect of the program on the probability of obtaining a B average or better in coursework, with most of the effect accruing to performance in mathematics. Most importantly, the program led to a decrease in the likelihood of high school dropout and an increase in the probability of high school graduation.

The Effect of Business Cycles on Educational Attainment

This paper studies the impact of fluctuations in unemployment rates before high school graduation, at age 17, on educational attainment. We hypothesize that schooling decisions are counter-cyclical, but that the impact of higher unemployment rates varies over the ability distribution, as measured by the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT). Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY79), combined with information on national unemployment rates, we find support for this hypothesis. Specifically, we find that higher unemployment rates at age 17 increase completed years of education and the probability of college graduation for individuals in the 60th-80th quintile of the AFQT distribution. We find no evidence that higher unemployment rates are related to the probability of high school graduation.

Legal status and educational transitions for mexican and central american immigrant youth.

This study uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation to infer the legal status of Mexican and Central American immigrant youth and to investigate its relationship with educational attainment. We assess differences by legal status in high school graduation and college enrollment, decompose differences in college enrollment into the probability of high school graduation and the probability of high school graduates' enrollment in college and estimate the contributions of personal and family background characteristics to such differences. Results show that undocumented students are less likely than documented students to both graduate from high school and enroll in college, and differences in college enrollment cannot be explained by family background characteristics. We conclude that legal status is a critical axis of stratification for Latinos.

The Kid's Speech: The Effect of Stuttering on Human Capital Acquisition

A number of studies have shown that childhood speech impairments such as stuttering are associated with lower test scores and educational attainment. However, it is unclear whether this result is causal in nature or whether it can be explained by difficult-to-measure heterogeneity at the community, family, or individual level. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and ordinary least squares, we show that stuttering is negatively associated with high school grades, the probability of high school graduation, and the probability of college attendance. However, empirical specifications with family fixed effects or controls for learning disabilities such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder suggest that these associations can, in large part, be explained by difficult-to-measure heterogeneity.

The impact of alcohol consumption and marijuana use on high school graduation.

In this study we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to estimate the relationship between high school graduation, and alcohol and marijuana use among high school students. We also estimate the demand determinants for each of these substances. Our results show that there are significant adverse effects of alcohol and marijuana use on high school graduation. In particular, increases in the incidence of frequent drinking, liquor and wine consumption, and frequent marijuana use, significantly reduce the probability of high school graduation. Our results also show that beer taxes, liquor prices and marijuana decriminalization have a significant impact on the demand for these substances. These findings have important policy implications. A ten percent increase in beer taxes, reduces alcohol consumption among high school students, which in turn raises the probability of high school graduation by about three percent. A 1 percent increase in liquor prices raises the probability of high school graduation by over 1 percent. Raising the minimum drinking age for liquor also reduces liquor and wine consumption, and thus, improves the probability of high school graduation. Although the relationship between marijuana decriminalization and marijuana use is not significant, decriminalization is found to reduce the probability of becoming a frequent drinker. This result suggests that marijuana use and frequent drinking are substitute activities. Illicit substance abuse reduces the rate of high school completion, reduces expected future earnings and creates potential health problems. Thus, high-school-based preventive programs which discourage alcohol consumption and marijuana use are highly recommended, in order to alleviate these problems.

The impact of alcohol consumption and marijuana use on high school graduation

In this study we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). We estimate the relationship between high school graduation, and alcohol and marijuana use among the sample of high school students. We also estimate these students' demand determinants for each of these substances. Our results show that there are significant adverse effects of alcohol and marijuana use on high school graduation. In addition, we find that beer taxes, minimum drinking age laws and marijuana decriminalization have a significant impact on the demand for these substances. Our findings have important policy implications. We find that a ten percent increase in beer tax, reduces alcohol consumption among high school students, which in turn raises the probability of high school graduation by about 3.7 percent. Further, a ten percent increase in liquor prices, raises the probability of high school graduation by 6.6 to 8.2 percent. Raising the minimum drinking age for liquor also reduces liquor and wine consumption, and consequently, improves the probability of high school graduation.

Reevaluating the costs of teenage childbearing: Response to Geronimus and Korenman

Commentary is provided on some of the differences and reasons for the differences between the Geronimus and Korenman findings on the economic effects of teenage childbearing as well as on the authors own interpretation of existing data. The disagreements pertain to technical details involving sampling and data analysis. A review of the history and background of research by both research groups is presented. Geronimus and Korenman presented their first results in 1989 and 1991 based on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women (NLSY). The findings were that the effects of early childbearing were smaller than previously estimated. In addition the effects were statistically insignificant for economic status probability of high school graduation and other factors. These controversial findings were replicated by Geronimus and Korenman for a sample of NLSY data and data front the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Hoffman et al. also analyzed PSID data. The findings from the three replications are very consistent; i.e. fixed-effect estimates are smaller than previously estimated. There are statistically significant and quantitatively important effects on economic status the probabilities of being officially poor and of graduating from high school. The probability of acquiring postsecondary education is also negative. The sister-comparison data....... support the contention of Geronimus and Korenman that the effects of teen childbearing are negligible. A table of the Hoffman et al. results shows that the NLSY results were outliers. Geronimus and Korenman argue that the NLSY data are correct. Concern is raised that the NLSY sisters-comparison data are unrepresentative because of selective inclusion of older women the smaller sample size in the PSID the underrepresentation of women aged 20-24 years the underrepresentation of married women and the misidentification of women without sisters. The conclusion is that it is too early to say that the true effects of teen childbearing are small.

Alternative Estimates of the Effect of Family Structure During Adolescence on High School Graduation

Abstract Many studies have reported significant empirical associations between family structure during childhood and children's outcomes later in life. It may be that living in a nonintact family has adverse consequences for children. On the other hand, it may be that some unobserved process jointly determines family structure and children's outcomes. How then should one interpret the empirical evidence on the relationship between family structure and children's outcomes? The answer depends on the question asked and on the prior information available to the researcher. We seek to interpret the association between family structure and high school graduation found among respondents in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth. We seek to answer the traditional question of the literature on treatment effects: How would the probability of high school graduation vary with family structure if family structure were not selected by parents but were, instead, an exogenously assigned “treatment,” as in a clinical trial or other controlled experiment? The inferential problem is that the data alone do not suffice to identify the treatment effect. Hence any attempt to estimate a treatment effect depends critically on the prior information available to the researcher. We develop alternative estimates of the effect of family structure on high school graduation, obtained under differing assumptions about the actual process generating family structure and high school outcomes. We first assume strong prior information and present estimates of a set of parametric latent-variable models explaining family structure and children's outcomes. We then assume no prior information at all and report estimates of nonparametric bounds on the graduation probabilities. Finally, we give non-parametric estimates obtained under the assumption that family structure is exogenous with respect to high school graduation. Our empirical analysis strengthens the evidence that living in an intact family increases the probability that a child will graduate from high school. We also report that the probability of high school graduation increases markedly with both parents’ education, regardless of family structure. At the same time, we stress that prior information is necessary if one is to do more than bound the effect of family structure on children's outcomes. Any point estimate embodies prior information about the process generating family structure and children's outcomes. As long as social scientists are heterogenous in their beliefs about this process, their estimates of family-structure effects may vary.

Alternative Estimates of the Effect of Family Structure during Adolescence on High School Graduation

Abstract Many studies have reported significant empirical associations between family structure during childhood and children's outcomes later in life. It may be that living in a nonintact family has adverse consequences for children. On the other hand, it may be that some unobserved process jointly determines family structure and children's outcomes. How then should one interpret the empirical evidence on the relationship between family structure and children's outcomes? The answer depends on the question asked and on the prior information available to the researcher. We seek to interpret the association between family structure and high school graduation found among respondents in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth. We seek to answer the traditional question of the literature on treatment effects: How would the probability of high school graduation vary with family structure if family structure were not selected by parents but were, instead, an exogenously assigned “treatment,” as in a clinical tr...

Family structure and educational attainment of children: effects of remarriage.

"This study explores how remarriage alters the effect of living in a female-headed family on children's educational attainment. The analysis is based upon data from a mother/child extract taken from the 1984 March/April Match file of the [U.S.] Current Population Survey. Ordinary least squares regression analysis and logit analysis are used. The results are mixed. While remarriage mitigates the negative effects of single-parent family living on years of school completed and the probability of high school graduation, it exacerbates these effects on the probability of entering college by ages 18-20 years, especially for boys. Thus, while remarriage increases income and reduces time pressures compared to single-parent family living, the presence of a stepfather appears to complicate the college entrance decision."

Secondary School Tracking and Educational Inequality: Compensation, Reinforcement, or Neutrality?

This article examines the effects of academic tracking in secondary schools on educational stratification and considers how that tracking may affect levels and dispersions of academic achievement and high school graduation rates among social groups. Data from the High School and Beyond survey of students who were sophomores in 1980 show that placement in the college track substantially benefits growth in mathematics achievement and the probability of high school graduation, even when measured and unmeasured sources of nonrandom assignment to tracks are taken into account. Track assignment reinforces preexisting inequalities in achievement among students from different socioeconomic backgrounds. However, track assignment and differential achievement in tracks partially compensate blacks and girls for their initial disadvantages and makes racial and sexual inequalities smaller than they may have otherwise been. The article provides qualified support for the view that students are assigned to the tracks that provide the greatest reward to their measured background characteristics.