Emigration Probability Research Articles

Immigrants Through the Eyes of Citizens of Kazakhstan: The Attitude of the Host Society to the Immigrants’ Health

This article examines the attitudes of Kazakhstani citizens towards health problems among immigrants. Respondents (N=401) from different regions of Kazakhstan took part in the study in 2023. According to the results of the study, it was found that (1) male respondents demonstrated significantly higher engagement with news about migrants compared to females. (2) Age and level of education were not associated with news engagement. (3) The probability of emigration correlated negatively with age but positively with education level, and positively with frequency of following migration news. (4) Individuals with conservative ideological orientations and liberal economic perspectives were more likely to follow migration news. (5) Attitudes towards immigrant health varied, with the majority supporting continuous health monitoring but divided opinions on whether immigrants pose a danger to public health. (6) Socio-demographic factors such as language, gender, experience living abroad, and ideological orientation influenced attitudes toward immigrant health. Therefore, understanding the complex attitudes of citizens towards immigrant health issues is essential for developing targeted interventions and policies that promote integration and address the diverse needs of both immigrants and the host population in Kazakhstan.

Emigration of Juvenile Tarpon Megalops atlanticus from Ephemerally Connected Coastal Ponds

Worldwide, coastal wetlands are threatened by disrupted hydrology, urbanization, and sea-level rise. In southwest Florida, coastal wetlands include tidal creeks and coastal ponds, which are the primary habitats used by juvenile Tarpon, Megalops atlanticus, an important sport fish. Coastal ponds can occur near uplands and are ephemerally connected to the open estuary, creating conditions of variable dissolved oxygen and salinity. Juveniles can tolerate wide-ranging abiotic conditions, but little is known about how they egress from their remote nursery habitats, which often requires them to cross > 1 km of mangrove forest to reach the open estuary. The objective of this study was to (1) compare Tarpon body condition among ponds close to the open estuary versus those ponds farther away on the Cape Haze peninsula of Charlotte Harbor, Florida, and (2) using acoustic telemetry determine what factors contribute to Tarpon emigration from the ponds to open estuarine waters. We tested the hypothesis that distinct groups of Tarpon occur in isolated ponds, leading to variation in fish length and body condition, and that opportunities for emigration from these ponds hinge on high water events. No pond stood out as having Tarpon of low body condition. Factors contributing to increased probabilities of Tarpon emigration were low barometric pressure, high-water level, and Tarpon body length. Tarpon emigrated from ponds near tidal creeks during summer king tides, while tropical cyclone conditions were needed to allow for movement from ponds farther in the landscape. The juvenile Tarpon were later detected at the mouths of large rivers 30 km up-estuary. The characterizations of water levels and event criteria needed for successful Tarpon nurseries should aid in habitat conservation and the creation of Tarpon nursery habitat in restoration designs.

Demographic insights for the endangered Apennine yellow-bellied toad in the Pollino National Park (Southern Italy). A five-year Capture-Mark-Recapture study

Investigating population structure, parameters, and growth over time is vital for conserving endangered taxa like the Apennine yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata pachypus) in Italy. The Apennine yellow-bellied toad faces habitat loss or degradation, disease, and climate change threats. Our study delves into the population dynamics of this endemic amphibian by monitoring populations in two breeding sites within the Pollino National Park (Southern Italy) using a five-year Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) approach. With a particular emphasis on demographic parameters such as population size, detectability, survival, temporary emigration probability, and body condition index, the research aims to contribute to understanding population dynamics and inform conservation efforts. We used two CMR models to estimate these parameters: Jolly-Seber with POPAN parametrisation and Pollock's robust design with Huggins' estimator. Results showed variation in body size between males and females, challenging previous findings in south-central Italy. For both populations, demographic data indicate high annual adult survival, fidelity to the breeding areas, support for no movement, and minimal trap response. Abundance over the years reveals a slight decline in one site and a gradual increase in the other. The estimated maximum population size indicated ∼ 92 animals in one population and ∼ 70 in the other one. Despite the high conservation concern for the Apennine yellow-bellied toad, there remains a dearth of quantitative information on demographic aspects in Southern Italy. The findings underscore the importance of protected areas in biodiversity conservation and contribute to understanding the B. v. pachypus conservation status, suggesting that small, isolated populations may be vulnerable to unpredictable fluctuations, inbreeding depression, and extinction risks. Additionally, the research emphasises the importance of long-term CMR studies to gain insights into population dynamics and develop effective conservation strategies and management practices, particularly in the face of climate changes that may impact both the endemic taxon and its habitat.

Vital rates of a burgeoning population of Humpback Chub in western Grand Canyon

AbstractObjectiveThe Colorado River ecosystem has experienced habitat alterations and nonnative species invasions; as a result, many of its native species have had extirpations, abundance declines, and range constrictions. Despite these pitfalls, the Humpback Chub Gila cypha has persisted and in the last 10–15 years has expanded its range to become abundant in western Grand Canyon, a river segment in which it had been rare for the prior three decades. The goal of this study was to evaluate the population dynamics (i.e., growth, survival, movement, abundance) for this “new” group of Humpback Chub.MethodsWe analyzed a 6‐year mark–recapture study from a fixed monitoring reach in western Grand Canyon, and we provide the first estimates of survival and growth (vital rates) for these fish. We compared vital rates in western Grand Canyon to those of two life history forms (residents and migrants, representing fast and slow life history trajectories, respectively) from the more established Little Colorado River (LCR) aggregation in eastern Grand Canyon.ResultCompared to LCR migrants and LCR residents, Humpback Chub in western Grand Canyon had intermediate values for apparent survival, growth, and asymptotic length. Relatively high survival of subadults coupled with fast growth allowed for rapid population growth in western Grand Canyon. However, a large cohort in 2017 failed to lead to noticeable increases in adults. Seasonal survival patterns were distinct in all three groups, and apparent survival was lowest in western Grand Canyon during spring months. Adult Humpback Chub in western Grand Canyon were mobile and had a high probability of transience (i.e., just passing through the reach) and temporary emigration, demonstrating the need for future movement studies in western Grand Canyon to better distinguish emigration from survival.ConclusionThere is considerable spatial variability in viral rates for Humpback Chub in Grand Canyon. We discuss how observations are related to disparate temperature regimes experienced by the three groups and whether (how) the relationship between metabolism and temperature influences vital rates within the river network.

Joint estimation of survival and dispersal effectively corrects the permanent emigration bias in mark-recapture analyses

Robust and reliable estimates of demographic parameters are essential to understand population dynamics. Natal dispersal is a common process in monitored populations and can cause underestimations of survival and dispersal due to permanent emigration. Here, we present a multistate Bayesian capture-mark-recapture approach based on a joint estimation of natal dispersal kernel and detection probabilities to address biases in survival, dispersal, and related demographic parameters when dispersal information is limited. We implement this approach to long-term data of a threatened population: the Bonelli’s eagle in Catalonia (SW Europe). To assess the method’s performance, we compare demographic estimates structured by sex, age, and breeding status in cases of limited versus large data scales, with those of classical models where dispersal and detection probabilities are estimated separately. Results show substantial corrections of demographic estimates. Natal dispersal and permanent emigration probabilities were larger in females, and consequently, female non-breeder survival showed larger differences between separate and joint estimation models. Moreover, our results suggest that estimates are sensitive to the choice of the dispersal kernel, fat-tailed kernels providing larger values in cases of data limitation. This study provides a general multistate framework to model demographic parameters while correcting permanent emigration biases caused by natal dispersal.

Drought Influences Annual Survival of Painted Turtles in Western Nebraska

Aquatic habitats in the Great Plains of North America have increased risk of droughts under climate forecasts. Droughts have the potential to influence the population dynamics of pond turtles, and long-term studies are useful to assess the impact of climatic variation on turtles. We compiled twelve years of mark-recapture data for painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) captured in a pond in Keith County, Nebraska during 2005–2016 that included two periods of drought. We used a robust design analysis to investigate influences on population size, annual survival, temporary immigration, and capture probability. Estimates of the annual population size ranged from 92 (CI: 90–94) to 180 (CI: 175–186) but did not vary with drought conditions. Despite a relatively stable depth of water in our study pond, the probability of annual survival was reduced by 0.07 in females and 0.10 in males during drought years. Approximately one-fifth (temporary emigration probability: 0.19, CI = 0.16–0.23) of the population was outside the study pond at any given time. Our long-term research provides insights into the potential challenges to turtles in aquatic habitats undergoing prolonged changes in long-term climate conditions.

A hierarchical approach for estimating state‐specific mortality and state transition in dispersing animals with incomplete death records

Abstract Unbiased mortality estimates are fundamental for testing ecological and evolutionary theory as well as for developing effective conservation actions. However, mortality estimates are often confounded by dispersal, especially in studies where dead‐recovery is not possible. In such instances, missing individuals (i.e. individuals with unobserved time of death) may have died or permanently emigrated from a study area, making inferences about their fate difficult. Mortality before and during dispersal, as well as the decision to disperse, usually depend on a suite of individual, social and environmental covariates, which in turn can be used to draw conclusions about the fate of missing individuals. Here, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account time‐varying covariates to estimate transitions between life‐history states and mortality in each state using mark‐resighting data with missing individuals. Specifically, our framework estimates mortality rates in two states (resident and dispersing state) by treating the fate of missing individuals as a latent (i.e. unobserved) variable that is statistically inferred based on information from individuals with a known fate and given the individual, social and environmental conditions at the time of disappearance. Our model also estimates rates of state transition (i.e. emigration) to assess whether a missing individual was more likely to have died or survived due to unobserved emigration from the study area. We used simulations to check the validity of our model and assessed its performance with data of varying degrees of uncertainty. Our modelling framework provided accurate mortality and emigration estimates for simulated data of different sample sizes, proportions of missing individuals, and resighting intervals. Variation in sample size appeared to affect the precision of estimated parameters the most. Our approach offers a solution to estimating unbiased mortality of both resident and dispersing individuals as well as the probability of emigration using mark‐resighting data with incomplete death records. Conditional on the availability of data on known‐fate individuals and relevant time‐varying covariates, our model can reconstruct the fate (death or emigration) of missing individuals. The modularity of our framework allows mortality analyses to be tailored to a variety of species‐specific life histories.

Dynamic occupancy models reveal Black-billed and Yellow-billed Cuckoos have high rates of turnover during the breeding season

Abstract Understanding the conservation needs of rare and hard-to-detect species becomes even more difficult when a species is highly mobile. Black-billed Cuckoos (Coccyzus erythropthalmus) and Yellow-billed Cuckoos (Coccyzus americanus) have experienced extensive range-wide population declines over the last several decades. Low detection probability has made it hard to determine causes of declines and resulted in poorly supported population and trend estimates. However, given evidence that cuckoos make wide-ranging movements during the breeding season, it may be necessary to address issues of both low vocalization rate and availability for detection to better understand these cryptic species. We performed passive and call-broadcast surveys for cuckoos at 41 sites across northern Illinois in 2019 and 2020. We examined the influence of call broadcast and temporal and environmental covariates on detection probability and how habitat covariates affected occupancy, immigration, and emigration both within and among sites. Individual detection probability increased substantially using call broadcasts (12 and 6 times for Black-billed and Yellow-billed Cuckoos, respectively) and detection increased with temperature. Black-billed Cuckoo detection probability also varied temporally, being lowest in the middle of the breeding season. We found strong support for turnover within sites during the breeding season, indicating maintenance of large home ranges, as well as among sites (average emigration probability of 86% and 47% for Black-billed and Yellow-billed Cuckoos, respectively). Black-billed Cuckoos were more likely to use open, shrubby sites and Yellow-billed Cuckoos to use sites with older successional habitat. While turnover rate was affected by habitat covariates, these species’ reliance on ephemeral insect abundance may ultimately be driving occupancy dynamics. Our results suggest that broadcasts are essential for effectively monitoring these cuckoos, but also imply the need to move towards coordinating management at broader spatial scales for these highly mobile species.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s international migration constrains its sustainable development under climate change

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is seen as a region of mass migration and population displacement caused by poverty, violent conflict, and environmental stress. However, empirical evidence is inconclusive regarding how SSA’s international migration progressed and reacted during its march to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This article attempts to study the patterns and determinants of SSA’s international migration and the cause and effects on sustainable development by developing a Sustainability Index and regression models. We find that international migration was primarily intra-SSA to low-income but high-population-density countries. Along with increased sustainability scores, international migration declined, but emigration rose. Climate extremes tend to affect migration and emigration but not universally. Dry extremes propelled migration, whereas wet extremes had an adverse effect. Hot extremes had an increasing effect but were insignificant. SSA’s international migration was driven by food insecurity, low life expectancy, political instability and violence, high economic growth, unemployment, and urbanisation rates. The probability of emigration was mainly driven by high fertility. SSA’s international migration promoted asylum seeking to Europe with the diversification of origin countries and a motive for economic wellbeing. 1% more migration flow or 1% higher probability of emigration led to a 0.2% increase in asylum seekers from SSA to Europe. Large-scale international migration and recurrent emigration constrained SSA’s sustainable development in political stability, food security, and health, requiring adequate governance and institutions for better migration management and planning towards the SDGs.Graphical abstract

The global migration network of sex-workers.

Differences in the social and economic environment across countries encourage humans to migrate in search of better living conditions, including job opportunities, higher salaries, security and welfare. Quantifying global migration is, however, challenging because of poor recording, privacy issues and residence status. This is particularly critical for some classes of migrants involved in stigmatised, unregulated or illegal activities. Escorting services or high-end prostitution are well-paid activities that attract workers all around the world. In this paper, we study international migration patterns of sex-workers by using network methods. Using an extensive international online advertisement directory of escorting services and information about individual escorts, we reconstruct a migrant flow network where nodes represent either origin or destination countries. The links represent the direct routes between two countries. The migration network of sex-workers shows different structural patterns than the migration of the general population. The network contains a strong core where mutual migration is often observed between a group of high-income European countries, yet Europe is split into different network communities with specific ties to non-European countries. We find non-reciprocal relations between countries, with some of them mostly offering while others attract workers. The Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPc) is a good indicator of country attractiveness for incoming workers and service rates but is unrelated to the probability of emigration. The median financial gain of migrating, in comparison to working at the home country, is 15.9%. Only sex-workers coming from 77% of the countries have financial gains with migration and average gains decrease with the GDPc of the country of origin. Our results suggest that high-end sex-worker migration is regulated by economic, geographic and cultural aspects.

Season and Discharge Predict Downstream Emigration Rates for Reservoir Sport Fish Populations

AbstractGiven the importance of reservoir fisheries and the investments made by fisheries management agencies to create and maintain these fisheries, the loss of reservoir‐stocked fish through downstream emigration warrants action to be taken to understand and prevent it. The factors driving emigration of reservoir fish and the measurable effects of emigration on fish population dynamics are not well understood. In this study, we sought to understand the seasonal emigration patterns of two popular sport fish, saugeye (female Walleye Sander vitreus × male Sauger Sander canadensis) and Muskellunge Esox masquinongy, and determine if their annual declines in abundance were correlated with predicted annual emigration rates. We modeled daily emigration probabilities of saugeye and Muskellunge from PIT tag data collected in the dam spillway of an Ohio reservoir. Using data on discharge from previous years, these models were used to estimate annual emigration rates, which were regressed against historical catch data to test whether emigration explained annual cohort declines. Our models showed that downstream emigration from the reservoir occurred primarily during spring for both species, especially during periods of high reservoir discharge. All saugeye and nearly all Muskellunge emigrants were adults, with 13% of tagged adult saugeye and 17% of tagged adult Muskellunge emigrating. Our models predicted historical annual emigration losses (across all age‐classes) as high as 24% for saugeye and 8.6% for Muskellunge. Furthermore, historical annual emigration rates were negatively related to catch rates for both species. These results illustrate that, depending on flow regime and seasonal effects on fish movements, emigration can have measurable effects on reservoir sport fish populations. As such, it is important to understand the factors driving downstream migration and use this understanding to inform decisions on potential mitigation of emigration as well as fish stocking decisions.

Estimating abundance, temporary emigration, and the pattern of density dependence in a cyclic snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) population in Yukon, Canada

Estimates of demographic parameters based on capture–mark–recapture (CMR) methods may be biased when some individuals in the population are temporarily unavailable for capture (temporary emigration). We estimated snowshoe hare abundance, apparent survival, and probability of temporary emigration in a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) in the Yukon (Canada) using Pollock’s robust design CMR model, and population density using spatially explicit CMR models. Survival rates strongly varied among cyclic phases, seasons, and across five population cycles. We found strong evidence that temporary emigration was Markovian (i.e., nonrandom), suggesting that it varied among individuals that were temporary emigrant in the previous sampling period and those that were present in the sampled area. The probability of temporary emigration for individuals that were in the study area during the previous sampling occasion (γ″) varied among cycles. Probability that individuals that were temporarily absent from the sampled area would remain temporary emigrants (γ′) showed strongly seasonal pattern, low in winter and high during summers. Snowshoe hare population density ranged from 0.017 (0.015–0.05) hares/ha to 4.43 (3.90–5.00) hares/ha and showed large-scale cyclical fluctuations. Autocorrelation functions and autoregressive analyses revealed that our study population exhibited statistically significant cyclic fluctuations, with a periodicity of 9–10 years.

Does Educational Mismatch Affect Emigration Behaviour?

This paper uses linked Swiss administrative and survey data to examine the relationship between educational mismatch in the labour market and emigration decisions, carrying out the analysis for both Swiss native and previous immigrant workers. In turn, migrants’ decisions separate returning home from onward migration to a third country. We find that undereducation is positively associated with the probability of emigration and return to the country of origin. In contrast, the reverse relationship is found between overeducation and emigration, especially among non-European immigrant workers. According to the predictions of the traditional model of migration, based on self-selection, migrants returning home are positively selected relative to migrants emigrating to other countries. We also find that immigrants from a country outside the EU27/EFTA have little incentive to return home and generally accept jobs for which they are mismatched in Switzerland. These results highlight the relevance to understand emigration behaviours in relation to the type of migrant that is most integrated, and productive, in the Swiss market, hence enabling better migration and domestic labour market policy design.

Prospecting and informed dispersal: Understanding and predicting their joint eco-evolutionary dynamics.

The ability of individuals to leave a current breeding area and select a future one is important, because such decisions can have multiple consequences for individual fitness, but also for metapopulation dynamics, structure, and long‐term persistence through non‐random dispersal patterns. In the wild, many colonial and territorial animal species display informed dispersal strategies, where individuals use information, such as conspecific breeding success gathered during prospecting, to decide whether and where to disperse. Understanding informed dispersal strategies is essential for relating individual behavior to subsequent movements and then determining how emigration and settlement decisions affect individual fitness and demography. Although numerous theoretical studies have explored the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal, very few have integrated prospecting and public information use in both emigration and settlement phases. Here, we develop an individual‐based model that fills this gap and use it to explore the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of informed dispersal. In a first experiment, in which only prospecting evolves, we demonstrate that selection always favors informed dispersal based on a low number of prospected patches relative to random dispersal or fully informed dispersal, except when individuals fail to discriminate better patches from worse ones. In a second experiment, which allows the concomitant evolution of both emigration probability and prospecting, we show the same prospecting strategy evolving. However, a plastic emigration strategy evolves, where individuals that breed successfully are always philopatric, while failed breeders are more likely to emigrate, especially when conspecific breeding success is low. Embedding information use and prospecting behavior in eco‐evolutionary models will provide new fundamental understanding of informed dispersal and its consequences for spatial population dynamics.

Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Latent Tuberculosis Screening and Treatment Strategies in Recent Migrants to a Low-Incidence Setting.

Many tuberculosis (TB) cases in low-incidence settings are attributed to reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired overseas. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of community-based LTBI screening and treatment strategies in recent migrants to a low-incidence setting (Australia). A decision-analytical Markov model was developed that cycled 1 migrant cohort (≥11-year-olds) annually over a lifetime from 2020. Postmigration/onshore and offshore (screening during visa application) strategies were compared with existing policy (chest x-ray during visa application). Outcomes included TB cases averted and discounted cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained from a health-sector perspective. Most recent migrants are young adults and cost-effectiveness is limited by their relatively low LTBI prevalence, low TB mortality risks, and high emigration probability. Onshore strategies cost at least $203,188 (Australian) per QALY gained, preventing approximately 2.3%-7.0% of TB cases in the cohort. Offshore strategies (screening costs incurred by migrants) cost at least $13,907 per QALY gained, preventing 5.5%-16.9% of cases. Findings were most sensitive to the LTBI treatment quality-of-life decrement (further to severe adverse events); with a minimal decrement, all strategies caused more ill health than they prevented. Additional LTBI strategies in recent migrants could only marginally contribute to TB elimination and are unlikely to be cost-effective unless screening costs are borne by migrants and potential LTBI treatment quality-of-life decrements are ignored.

Does Educational Mismatch Affect Emigration Behaviour?

This paper uses linked Swiss administrative and survey data to examine the relationship between educational mismatch in the labour market and emigration decisions, carrying out the analysis for both Swiss native and previous immigrant workers. In turn, migrants' decisions separate returning home from onward migration to a third country. We find that undereducation is positively associated with the probability of emigration and return to the country of origin. In contrast, the reverse relationship is found between overeducation and emigration, especially among non-European immigrant workers. According to the predictions of the traditional model of migration, based on self-selection, migrants returning home are positively selected relative to migrants emigrating to other countries. We also find that immigrants from a country outside the EU27/EFTA have little incentive to return home and generally accept jobs for which they are mismatched in Switzerland. These results highlight the relevance to understand emigration behaviours in relation to the type of migrant that is most integrated, and productive, in the Swiss market, hence enabling better migration and domestic labour market policy design.

Students’ perceptions of emigration to foreign countries for higher education: Evidence from a Pakistani university

ABSTRACT The present study aims to find out the predictors of students’ perceptions of emigration to foreign countries for higher education. The probabilities of emigration are calculated on the basis of students’ perceptions of their global networking, personality types, and push and pull factors of emigration. A cross-sectional survey was carried out among the students who were enrolled in University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan. The respondents were selected using multistage sampling technique and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to calculate adjusted odd ratios (aOR). The study found that the socio-demographic variables, global networking, personality attributes, and push and pull factors significantly affected the decision of students to migrate for educational purposes. The findings of the present study furthermore indicated that the emigration for educational purposes was not a unidirectional phenomenon thus it is recommended to develop a holistic approach to further investigate the migratory perceptions of educated youth for higher education.

Dispersal evolution in currents: spatial sorting promotes philopatry in upstream patches

Substantial literature is devoted to understanding dispersal evolution, but we lack theory on how dispersal evolves when populations inhabit currents. Such theory is required for understanding connectivity in freshwater and marine environments; moreover, many animals, fungi and plants rely on wind‐based dispersal, but the effects of currents on dispersal evolution in these organisms is unknown. We develop an individual‐based model for evolution of dispersal probability along a linear environment with a unidirectional current. Even a slight current substantially reduces overall emigration probability compared to no current. Under stronger currents, emigration can be drastically reduced, especially in the upstream patches. When introducing rare long‐distance dispersal that is not subject to the current, higher emigration probabilities evolve and the spatial variability in emigration propensity along the stream is reduced. Our results provide an alternative solution to the long debated ‘drift paradox' concerning the loss of individuals from upstream populations due to advective forces. A combination of natural selection and spatial sorting generates and maintains downstream gradients in dispersal propensity, where individuals from upstream populations tend to be substantially more philopatric. This is likely to have major implications for ecological and genetic connectivity that will impact effective management strategies for populations inhabiting currents.

On the sampling design of spatially explicit integrated population models

Abstract It is important to understand metapopulation dynamics and underlying demographic processes in heterogeneous landscapes. Traditionally, demographic parameters are estimated using capture–recapture data that can be difficult to collect. Spatially explicit dynamic N‐mixture models allow inference for demographic parameters, including dispersal, using count data of unmarked animals, but these models have only been shown effective under constant demographic parameters and dispersal between adjacent local populations. In this study, I aimed to compensate the weakness of spatially explicit dynamic N‐mixtures and multistate capture–recapture models by jointly analysing count and capture–recapture data. This spatially explicit integrated population model allows for spatiotemporal variation of demographic parameters in relation to environmental and density covariates and dispersal between any local populations. I conducted simulations to evaluate this model (a) for species with distinct life histories under different detection and capture probabilities, (b) when spatial sampling intensity varied, (c) when the length of survey period varied, (d) when the robust sampling design was adopted or not and (e) when auxiliary information is partially available. I also provided an empirical example of Gadwall Mareca strepera metapopulation dynamics in North American prairies. The results showed that the model provided unbiased parameter estimates under a variety of ecological and sampling conditions, even when the spatial sampling intensity of capture–recapture survey was low (20% of the patches) with the complement of count data (≥60% of the patches). Also, the model only required a relatively short survey period (6~8 years) to provide unbiased inferences. The robust sampling design was not necessary for the model to provide unbiased inferences when spatial counts were intense, but became critical when spatial counts were sparse. Parameter estimates remain unbiased when auxiliary information is partially available. The model showed that Gadwall had low emigration probability (11.8%) but could disperse more than 200 km. Based on the results, I provide recommendations about the trade‐off between spatial sampling intensity, length of survey period and the use of the robust sampling design when applying this model in real‐world studies. The model could have wide applications in the interface of metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology.

When to stay and when to leave? Proximate causes of dispersal in an endangered social carnivore.

Reliable estimates of birth, death, emigration and immigration rates are fundamental to understanding and predicting the dynamics of wild populations and, consequently, inform appropriate management actions. However, when individuals disappear from a focal population, inference on their fate is often challenging. Here we used 30years of individual-based mark-recapture data from a population of free-ranging African wild dogs Lycaon pictus in Botswana and a suite of individual, social and environmental predictors to investigate factors affecting the decision to emigrate from the pack. We subsequently used this information to assign an emigration probability to those individuals that were no longer sighted within their pack (i.e. missing individuals). Natal dispersal (i.e. emigration from the natal pack) showed seasonal patterns with female dispersal peaking prior to the mating season and male dispersal peaking at the beginning of the wet season. For both sexes, natal dispersal rate increased in the absence of unrelated individuals of the opposite sex in the pack. Male natal dispersal decreased with increasing number of pups in the pack and increased in larger packs. Female natal dispersal decreased with increasing number of pups in larger packs, but increased with increasing number of pups in smaller packs. Individuals of both sexes were less likely to exhibit secondary dispersal (i.e. emigration from a pack other than the natal pack) if they were dominant and if many pups were present in the pack. Our models predicted that 18% and 25% of missing females and males, respectively, had likely dispersed from the natal pack, rather than having died. A misclassification of this order of magnitude between dispersal and mortality can have far-reaching consequences in the evaluation and prediction of population dynamics and persistence, and potentially mislead conservation actions. Our study showed that the decision to disperse is context-dependent and that the effect of individual, social and environmental predictors differs between males and females and between natal and secondary dispersal related to different direct and indirect fitness consequences. Furthermore, we demonstrated how a thorough understanding of the proximate causes of dispersal can be used to assign a dispersal probability to missing individuals. Knowledge of causes of dispersal can then be used within an integrated framework to more reliably estimate mortality rates.