Probabilistic Seismic Demand Research Articles

Fuzzy seismic fragility analysis of underground structures considering multiple failure criteria

To avoid the deficiency of a single failure criterion and deterministic thresholds of limit states in seismic fragility analysis of underground structures, a method of fuzzy seismic fragility analysis of underground structures considering multiple failure criteria is proposed by combining fuzzy-random theory and copula theory. In this method, probabilistic seismic demand and capacity analyses based on different failure criteria are first performed. Then, the fuzziness of the limit states of different failure criteria is characterized by using membership functions, and the fuzzy seismic fragility of underground structures considering a single failure criterion with different membership functions is further calculated. On this basis, the copula function and the combination of membership functions are optimized to characterize the correlation between multiple failure criteria and establish fuzzy seismic fragility curves considering multiple failure criteria. Taking the Daikai subway station as the background, the effects of different failure criteria and the fuzziness of limit states on the seismic fragility are discussed, and the optimal combination of membership functions that characterizes the fuzziness of limit states under the failure criteria of deformation and strength is also presented. The results show that the failure criteria and fuzziness of limit states have significant effects on the seismic fragility of underground structures, and the combination of trigonometric membership functions is the optimal combination that characterizes the fuzziness of multiple failure criteria. Moreover, the fuzzy seismic fragility of underground structures considering multiple failure criteria is more sensitive to the fuzziness of limit states under frequent earthquakes and basic earthquakes, while the multiple failure criteria and the correlation between different failure criteria have more significant effects on the fuzzy seismic fragility considering multiple failure criteria under rare earthquakes and extremely rare earthquakes.

Risk‐targeted importance factors for prescriptive seismic design of critical buildings

AbstractThe post‐earthquake recovery of a community depends on the ability of important buildings to perform their functions. Lifeline and other critical buildings that meet a predictable enhanced seismic performance increase the community's disaster risk management capacity. In prescriptive force‐based design standards, the seismic design force for these buildings is typically enhanced using an importance factor depending on the risk category. The present paper proposes an innovative framework based on performance‐based seismic design (PBSD) principles using risk‐targeted importance factors suitable for use with prescriptive standards. The framework decouples probabilistic assessments of building typologies to experts, while the structural designers can continue the conventional design approach. The framework explicitly considers probabilistic seismic demand, uncertainty in the performance of the building, and the inter‐building variation within a particular building typology in seismic performance. Six special reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings conforming to Indian standards are selected to illustrate the framework. Sensitivity studies on parameter selection are used to establish the framework's robustness. An expression for the importance factors is also proposed. The use of the proposed importance factor expression is shown to meet a wide range of risk targets corresponding to different performance levels. The paper also proposes design factors for enhanced performance objectives suitable for the risk‐targeted prescriptive design. Further, the framework is implemented to estimate the seismic risk associated with existing building typology conforming to prevalent design standards. The assembly‐ and critical‐category RC buildings are found to require higher importance factors for achieving enhanced performance objectives than currently prescribed.

Seismic fatality risk evaluation framework for existing buildings in Switzerland

The Swiss code SIA 269/8 for the seismic evaluation of existing structures is risk-based. It relies on the compliance factor αeff, defined as the ratio of the seismic capacity of an existing structure to the required seismic capacity of a hypothetical identical new structure, to indirectly evaluate the casualty risk posed by the existing structure. While it is convenient to have a direct relationship between the casualty risk and the degree of code compliance of the existing structure, it is debatable if the contributions of the seismic hazard, structural performance and occupancy to the casualty risk should be merged into a single quantity, conflicting with the multi-component nature of seismic risk. This paper presents a graphical framework to evaluate the seismic fatality risk for existing buildings. The framework is based on the PEER Center performance-based earthquake engineering methodology to provide a transparent view of the contributions of different sources of hazard and risk. Starting from a seismic hazard model, probabilistic seismic demand, damage and loss models are introduced, taking the uncertainty into account at each step. The final product of the proposed framework, a loss curve representing the (annual) exceedance rate of fatality counts, enables engineers and building owners to make better, risk-based decisions. The proposed framework is demonstrated for an existing building in Switzerland. Notably, in addition to the SIA 269/8 evaluation method, this demonstration compares eight hybrid approaches differentiated by the utilized structural assessment techniques (nonlinear static pushover vs. incremental dynamic analysis), uncertainty propagation in the demand model (record variability only vs. record variability and epistemic uncertainty) and solution strategies (closed-form vs. numerical) to find a practical compromise between the accuracy and the computational effort. A comparison of the obtained results shows that the SIA 269/8 evaluation method underestimates the fatality risk for the presented building and identifies a practical alternative based on the proposed graphical framework.

Probabilistic seismic demand and fragility analysis of a novel mid-rise large-span cassette structure

Probabilistic seismic demand and fragility analysis of a novel mid-rise large-span cassette structure

Seismic Vulnerability Analysis of Rural Modified Raw-Soil Structures

Based on the concept of environmental protection of solid waste utilization, material testing is conducted to achieve native improvement using coal gangue-based limestone-calcined clay cement (LC3). Finite element (FE) models of rural raw-soil architecture with a colored-steel roof (RACSR) were established. The effect of modified soil type and seismic character on the vulnerability of single-story raw-soil structures was investigated using probabilistic seismic demand (PSD) analysis. The seismic response characteristics of 80 representative sequences were comparatively investigated when subjected to northwest clay (raw soil) of China, fiber and stone-improved clay (modified soil), and coal gangue-based limestone-calcined clay cement (LC3 soil). The maximum interstory drift angle (ISDAmax) was lower in the LC3 soil model and the modified soil model compared to the raw-soil model. The use of LC3 soil improves structural resistance and reduces the damage probability of a structure, and the influence of different ultimate failure states on the vulnerability of the raw-soil structure was studied.

Seismic fragility analysis in the probabilistic performance-based earthquake engineering framework: an overview

The numerical analysis based seismic fragility analysis (SFA) has been emerged as an integrated platform for seismic safety assessment of structures in future earthquake scenario in the context of performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE). The approach is becoming more and more acceptable mean for seismic vulnerability assessment of structures. The present article attempts to provide an overview of the related developments on numerical simulation based SFA in the probabilistic PBEE framework. In view of the general trend on the progress of such SFA, the related developments are presented under two subheads: (1) the analytical SFA based on probabilistic seismic demand and capacity models and (2) the statistical simulation based SFA based on non-linear PBEE using random field theory and statistical simulation. In doing so, considering the importance of the application of Bayesian approach in SFA, it has also been discussed separately. Finally, critical observations on the developments and scope of study to progress the state-of-the-art are summarized.

Computation of bridge seismic fragility by large‐scale simulation for probabilistic resilience analysis

SummarySeismic resilience of structures and infrastructure systems is a fast developing concept in the field of disaster management, promoting communities that are resistant and quickly recoverable in case of an extreme event. In this contest, probabilistic seismic demand and fragility analyses are two key elements of the seismic resilience assessment in the majority of the proposed methodologies. Several techniques are available to calculate fragility curves for different types of structures. In particular, to assess the seismic performance of the regional transportation infrastructure, methods for the fragility curve estimation for entire classes of bridges are required. These methods usually rely on a set of assumptions, partially because of the limited information. Other assumptions were introduced at the time when computational resources were inadequate for a purely numerical approach and closed‐form solutions were a convenient alternative. For instance, some of these popular assumptions are aimed at simplifying the model of the engineering demand. In this paper, a simulation‐based methodology is proposed, to take advantage of the computational resources widely available today and avoid such assumptions on the demand. The resulting increase in accuracy is estimated on a typical class of bridges (multi‐span simply supported). Most importantly, the quantitative impact of the assumptions is assessed in the context of a life‐cycle loss estimation analysis and resilience analysis. The results show that some assumptions preserve an acceptable level of accuracy, but others introduce a considerable error in the fragility curves and, in turn, in the expected resilience and life‐cycle losses of the structure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Parallel Computer Systems to Examine Seismic Reliability of Structures

Structural response under seismic loadings is typically nonlinear and related to many factors, such as structural configurations, material properties, occupancy loads, earthquake hazards and incomplete knowledge of the system. As all these factors have their sources of uncertainties, structural response under seismic loading has its probabilistic nature. Therefore, the random variable for any structural demand follows a multivariate probability distribution over the integration domain defined by the limit states. Examining the probabilistic behaviour of structures under earthquake loadings has to consider the sources of uncertainties from all factors. It is also known that numerical methods, such as the finite element method, are commonly used to predict nonlinear structural response. The probabilistic structural demand is a discrete probability function of its related variables. In order to examine seismic risks and mitigate potential damages to structures, it is important to accurately quantify seismic reliability of structures. The traditional seismic reliability analysis uses approximate algebra equations with parameters obtained from aggregation of data points of dynamic analysis, which may not be able to produce accurate results. In this paper, probabilistic seismic demands are solved with numerical procedures of the traditional SAC method and the Monte Carlo simulation. These methods rely on the results from repeatable nonlinear dynamic analyses, which were traditionally considered to be a bottle-neck due to limited computing resources. The recent progress in parallel computing technology and open-source software has made such scientific computation affordable for the engineering community. Two parallel computer systems were used to analyze seismic reliability of the structures. One system is based on multiple personal computers in typical computer labs. The other system is to use high performance computer clusters. Both systems were applied to analyze a two–storey wood frame building and a three-storey steel moment building, respectively