Proactive Conservation Research Articles

A Donor Registry: Genomic Analyses of Posidonia australis Seagrass Meadows Identifies Adaptive Genotypes for Future-Proofing.

Globally, anthropogenic climate change has caused declines of seagrass ecosystems necessitating proactive restoration approaches that would ideally anticipate future climate scenarios, such as marine warming. In eastern Australia, estuaries with meadows of the endangered seagrass Posidonia australis have warmed and acidified over the past decade, and seagrass communities have declined in some estuaries. Securing these valuable habitats will require proactive conservation and restoration efforts that could be augmented with restoration focussed on boosting resilience to future climate. Understanding patterns of selection and where seagrass meadows are adapted to particular environmental conditions is key for identifying optimal donor material for restoration. We used single nucleotide polymorphisms and genotype by environment analyses to identify candidate loci under putative selection to environmental stressors and assess genomic variation and allelic turnover along stressor gradients. The most important physicochemical variables driving selection were associated with temperature, water turbidity, and pH. We developed a preliminary 'donor registry' of pre-adapted P. australis genotypes by mapping the distribution of alleles to visualise allelic composition of each sampled seagrass meadow. The registry could be used as a first step to select source material for future-proofing restoration projects. A next step is to establish manipulative experiments that will be required to test whether pre-adapted genotypes confer increased resistance to multiple environmental stressors.

Uncertain future and uncertain projections: assessing extinction risks in European salamanders from projected chytrid fungus invasion using IUCN Criterion E

Amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates globally, and their conservation status continues to decline. In the updated Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA2), the use of IUCN Criterion E, which projects extinction risks through quantitative models, highlighted southern Europe as a hotspot for salamander extinction risk due to the risk of invasion by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). In particular, for five Italian salamander species, risk categories were elevated significantly based on Criterion E, from Vulnerable or lower to Endangered or Critically Endangered. This increased reliance on Criterion E raises concerns regarding its treatment of uncertainty, as these projections depend heavily on assumptions about Bsal spread, environmental suitability, and host dynamics. Limited exploration of alternative scenarios and reliance on extreme parameter values ​​may result in inflated extinction risk estimates. We emphasize the need for improved documentation of uncertainty and integration of diverse expert opinions in extinction risk assessments, to balance proactive conservation planning with robust scientific methodology.

Sentinel-1 data reveals unprecedented reduction of open water extent due to 2023-2024 drought in the central Amazon basin

Abstract In 2023, an intense drought impacted the Amazon basin triggered by climate change and a strong El Niño event, with the Negro River reaching its lowest water level in 120 years. However, the spatiotemporal open water extent (OWE) during this drought remains unclear. This study comprehensively evaluates OWE variability in the central Amazon using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data since 2017. Monthly OWE masks were generated through an empirical threshold classification with accuracy >95%. Overall, the central Amazon experienced a reduction of ∼8% in OWE in the 2023 dry season months (November and December) when compared to monthly-average. However, reductions of up to 80% in OWE were observed in several specific lakes. Our analysis underscores the unprecedented severity of the 2023/2024 drought on rivers and floodplains. Utilizing SAR remote sensing technologies, this study emphasizes the urgent need for proactive conservation measures to safeguard the Amazon’s ecological integrity amid escalating environmental challenges. Monthly water masks from January/2017 to September/2024 are available here: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12751783.

XGBOOST and Multitemporal DETER Data for Deforestation Forecasting

Abstract. This paper reports research that is part of a project to combat deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest by developing an online system designed to forecast deforestation risk over the short term, spanning 2 to 4 weeks. This online platform aims to empower stakeholders with timely data, facilitating proactive conservation and intervention strategies to safeguard the Amazon rainforest. We built a multitemporal database that compiles weekly deforestation alerts from the DETER project, forming our analysis’s backbone. Utilizing the XGBOOST regression algorithm, we have crafted a predictive model that identifies areas within the Amazon at imminent risk of more intensive deforestation. Preliminary results reveal an RMSE of 0.29 for predicting areas under deforestation risk, as validated against early alert data from 2020 to 2023. Our work advances environmental monitoring by focusing on a spatial resolution of 25 km × 25 km, providing accessible, near real-time information on deforestation risks.

Spatial analysis techniques for assessing groundwater vulnerability: a strategic approach to proactive conservation and mitigation strategies

Spatial analysis techniques for assessing groundwater vulnerability: a strategic approach to proactive conservation and mitigation strategies

Corrosion on cultural heritage buildings in Jordan in current situation and in future climate scenarios

This study examines the impact of air pollution on Jordan’s cultural heritage sites, focusing on key pollutants (SO2, HNO3, O3, PM10) and climate conditions. Using 2019 data and future projections for 2040–2059 and 2080–2099, the research reveals significant material corrosion in urban areas like Amman and Irbid, driven by pollutants such as SO₂ and PM10. Random Forest Analysis identifies these pollutants as primary contributors to material degradation. Future scenarios indicate corrosion rates exceeding safe limits across Jordan, underscoring the need for proactive conservation strategies. This work highlights the critical role of air quality management in protecting cultural heritage, especially under climate change pressures, and provides guidance for national policy development.

Xanthium strumarium L., an invasive species in the subtropics: prediction of potential distribution areas and climate adaptability in Pakistan

Invasive species such as Xanthium strumarium L., can disrupt ecosystems, reduce crop yields, and degrade pastures, leading to economic losses and jeopardizing food security and biodiversity. To address the challenges posed by invasive species such as X. strumarium, this study uses species distribution modeling (SDM) to map its potential distribution in Pakistan and assess how it might respond to climate change. This addresses the urgent need for proactive conservation and management strategies amidst escalating ecological threats. SDM forecasts a species’ potential dispersion across various geographies in both space and time by correlating known species occurrences to environmental variables. SDMs have the potential to help address the challenges posed by invasive species by predicting the future habitat suitability of species distributions and identifying the environmental factors influencing these distributions. Our study shows that seasonal temperature dependence, mean temperature of wettest quarter and total nitrogen content of soil are important climatic factors influencing habitat suitability of X. strumarium. The potential habitat of this invasive species is likely to expand beyond the areas it currently colonizes, with a notable presence in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. These areas are particularly vulnerable due to threats to agriculture and biodiversity. Under current conditions, an estimated 21% of Pakistan’s land area is infested by X. strumarium, mainly in upper Punjab, central Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The range is expected to expand in most regions except Sindh. The central and northeastern parts of the country are proving to be particularly suitable habitats for X. strumarium. Effective strategies are crucial to contain the spread of X. strumarium. The MaxEnt modeling approach generates invasion risk maps by identifying potential risk zones based on a species’ climate adaptability. These maps can aid in early detection, allowing authorities to prioritize surveillance and management strategies for controlling the spread of invasive species in suitable habitats. However, further research is recommended to understand the adaptability of species to unexplored environments.

Diversity pattern of Symplocos tree species in China under climate change scenarios: Toward conservation planning

Symplocos, a genus rich in endemic and keystone species in China's subtropical forests, plays a vital role in maintaining biodiversity. Climate change impacts on Symplocos trees affect ecosystem composition, dynamics, and functions. This study delves into the potential ramifications of climate change on the distribution and richness of Symplocos species across China under different climatic conditions. A comprehensive analysis was conducted using occurrence records of 29 species of Symplocos, focusing on habitat suitability modeling and spatial analysis, to demonstrate the possible effects of climate change on the distribution and diversity patterns of Symplocos species in China. Environmental data, including bioclimatic variables, were collected, and the future climate scenarios were projected using the combined average of the two global climate models. Four modeling algorithms were applied in an ensemble species distribution models to assess the distribution of Symplocos species and decipher the pattern of species richness and endemism. The results indicate high accuracy and performance of the models with a mean AUC of 0.94 and TSS of 0.77, particularly the random forest. The analysis identified key bioclimatic variables influencing Symplocos species distribution, with precipitation patterns (precipitation of driest month and precipitation of warmest quarter) and temperature variability (temperature mean diurnal range) playing significant roles. Predictions suggest a reduction in Symplocos species richness over the next six decades, particularly in southern and southwestern China, with potential gains in other regions. Overall, this study highlights the vulnerability of Symplocos species to climate change and underscores the importance of proactive conservation efforts and forest plantations to mitigate future loss in Symplocos species diversity.

Reduced representation sequencing reveals weak genetic differentiation between Canadian and European Larus hyperboreus (Glaucous Gull)

Abstract Climate change poses a significant threat to Arctic ecosystems. Evaluation of genetic diversity within and differentiation among populations is needed to effectively conserve Arctic species and ensure genetic variation is appropriately managed. This research examined population genetic structure in Larus hyperboreus (Glaucous Gull), a circumpolar Arctic species that is declining in parts of its range. Population genetic information is needed to help delineate management units, including information on genetic differences among related species, among subspecies (currently distinguished by subtle morphometric and plumage differences), and among colonies in North America. We conducted double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing for 62 L. hyperboreus, 18 L. argentatus smithsonianus (American Herring Gull), 6 L. a. argentatus (European Herring Gull), and 15 L. glaucescens (Glaucous-winged Gull) sampled across the Canadian and European Arctic. Interspecific analyses using 2,145 loci were unable to distinguish members of this species complex. Despite the geographic distance among sampling locations, molecular assignments and principal coordinates analyses based on 621 loci uncovered only weak population genetic differentiation among sampled European and Canadian colonies of L. hyperboreus. As L. hyperboreus occupying the eastern Canadian Arctic appear to be acting as a single panmictic population, conservation plans that protect Arctic habitat may help slow or reverse population declines. Proactive conservation strategies will benefit both L. hyperboreus and associated coastal Arctic ecosystems.

Comparing expedient and proactive approaches to the planning of protected area networks on Borneo

Protected areas are an important tool for wildlife conservation; however, research is increasingly revealing both biases and inadequacies in the global protected area network. One common criticism is that protected areas are frequently located in remote, high-elevation regions, which may face fewer threats compared to more accessible locations. To explore the conservation implications of this issue, we consider a thought experiment with seven different counterfactual scenarios for the Sunda clouded leopard’s conservation on Borneo. This allows us to examine two contrasting paradigms for conservation: “proactive conservation” which prioritises areas with high biodiversity and high risk of development, and “expedient conservation” which focusses on areas with the lowest development risk. We select clouded leopards as our focal species not only because of their emerging conservation importance, but also because, as top predators, they represent both keystone species and ambassadors for wider forest biodiversity. Furthermore, a published analysis of the likely impacts of forest loss in their habitat provides a benchmark for evaluating the modelled outcomes of alternative hypothetical conservation scenarios. We find that, across all metrics, expedient reserve design offered few benefits over the business-as-usual scenario, in contrast to the much greater conservation effectiveness of proactive protected area design. This paper sheds light on the challenging trade-offs between conservation goals and the competing land uses essential for the economic development and well-being of local communities.

Mapping global land conversion pressure to support conservation planning

Proactively identifying where land conversion might occur is critical to targeted and effective conservation planning. Previous efforts to map future habitat loss have largely focused on forested systems and have been limited in their consideration of drivers of loss. We developed a 1-km resolution, global map of land conversion pressure from multiple drivers, referred to as the conversion pressure index (CPI). The CPI combines past rates of anthropogenic change, as measured by temporal human modification maps, with suitability maps for potential future expansion by large-scale development. The CPI thus offers a new way to measure a cumulative gradient of anthropogenic pressure as opposed to categorical land cover change. We find that nearly 23% of land across 200 countries have relatively high conversion pressure, potentially impacting over 460 million ha of intact natural lands. We illustrate how this information can be used to identify areas for proactive conservation to avoid future loss and ensure that national commitments under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity and Paris Agreement Climate Frameworks are upheld.

Ten lessons for rare wildlife species conservation when coming from a common species background

AbstractEfforts to slow biodiversity loss have ushered in an era of proactive conservation for rare species, or species that have any combination of low relative abundance, high habitat specificity, and limited geographic range. Approaches to wildlife management and conservation were often developed for more abundant, generalist species, and frequently do not translate well to rare species. Conservation for rare species therefore requires adapting knowledge, action and inquiry tools for common species to rare species. We therefore present 10 lessons for adapting conservation tools to rare species, each with advice to implement the lessons. Several themes emerge from these lessons. Information scarcity necessitates high standards of information for rare species. Missing rare species information can be complemented with multiple forms of knowledge, particularly when the need for conservation action precludes additional data collection. Investment in depth (over breadth) of information for individuals of rare species can provide alternatives to population trend, which has lower reliability for rare species. Natural history documentation can improve rare species conservation strategies. Finally, curiosity‐driven inquiry can inspire rare species conservation innovation. We hope providing guidance that addresses challenges for rare species will help others bridge the gap between common wildlife approaches and proactive rare species conservation.

Long‐distance movements, large population sizes and density‐dependent dispersal in three threatened butterfly species

Abstract This study investigates the ecology of three threatened butterfly species on a 60 km2 site in Gotland, Southeast Sweden, using mark–recapture methods from 2017 to 2020. Nearly 30,000 captures were recorded, with average lifespans of 6 days for Euphydryas aurinia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Parnassius apollo (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) and 2 days for Phengaris arion (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Population size, density and maximum flight distances varied between species, with E. aurinia at 7.2 km, P. apollo at 6.4 km and P. arion at 2.5 km. Movement data showed the lognormal kernel fit better than gamma, negative exponential and half‐normal kernels for distance travelled per time unit across species and sexes. Generalised linear models revealed significant positive density‐dependent emigration and negative density‐dependent immigration in all three species. Despite available suitable habitats, these species face threats from limestone quarry expansions, agricultural intensification, modified forestry practices, natural succession and climate change, highlighting the need for proactive conservation and strategic habitat management.

Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia.

Climate change is anticipated to cause species to shift their ranges upward and poleward, yet space for tracking suitable habitat conditions may be limited for range-restricted species at the highest elevations and latitudes of the globe. Consequently, range-restricted species inhabiting Arctic freshwater ecosystems, where global warming is most pronounced, face the challenge of coping with changing abiotic and biotic conditions or risk extinction. Here, we use an extensive fish community and environmental dataset for 1762 lakes sampled across Scandinavia (mid-1990s) to evaluate the climate vulnerability of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), the world's most cold-adapted and northernly distributed freshwater fish. Machine learning models show that abiotic and biotic factors strongly predict the occurrence of Arctic char across the region with an overall accuracy of 89 percent. Arctic char is less likely to occur in lakes with warm summer temperatures, high dissolved organic carbon levels (i.e., browning), and presence of northern pike (Esox lucius). Importantly, climate warming impacts are moderated by habitat (i.e., lake area) and amplified by the presence of competitors and/or predators (i.e., northern pike). Climate warming projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario indicate that 81% of extant populations are at high risk of extirpation by 2080. Highly vulnerable populations occur across their range, particularly near the southern range limit and at lower elevations, with potential refugia found in some mountainous and coastal regions. Our findings highlight that range shifts may give way to range contractions for this cold-water specialist, indicating the need for pro-active conservation and mitigation efforts to avoid the loss of Arctic freshwater biodiversity.

Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios.

The hispid hare, Caprolagus hispidus, belonging to the family Leporidae is a small grassland mammal found in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, in India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Despite having an endangered status according to the IUCN Red List, it lacks studies on its distribution and is threatened by habitat loss and land cover changes. Thus, the present study attempted to assess the habitat suitability using the species distribution model approach for the first time and projected its future in response to climate change, habitat, and urbanization factors. The results revealed that out of the total geographical extent of 188,316 km2, only 11,374 km2 (6.03%) were identified as suitable habitat for this species. The results also revealed that habitat significantly declined across its range (>60%) under certain climate change scenarios. Moreover, in the present climate scenario protected areas such as Shuklaphanta National Park (0.837) in Nepal exhibited the highest mean extent of habitat whereas, in India, Dibru-Saikhowa National Park (0.631) is found to be the most suitable habitat. Notably, two protected areas in Uttarakhand, India, specifically Corbett National Park (0.530) and Sonanandi Wildlife Sanctuary (0.423), have also demonstrated suitable habitats for C. hispidus. Given that protected areas showing a future rise in habitat suitability might also be regarded as potential sites for species translocation, this study underscores the importance of implementing proactive conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on this species. It is essential to prioritize habitat restoration, focused protection measures, and further species-level ecological exploration to address these challenges effectively. Furthermore, fostering transboundary collaboration and coordinated conservation actions between nations is crucial to safeguarding the long-term survival of the species throughout its distribution range.

Monitoring observations of the southernmost breeding population of Long-billed Vultures Gyps indicus (Scopoli, 1786) (Aves: Acciptriformes: Accipitridae) in the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, India

The Long-billed Vulture (LBV) population was systematically monitored across four nesting colonies in the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR) throughout three extended breeding seasons. Breeding success rates between years ranged from 83.33% in 2018–2019 and 62.5% in 2020–2021. Nesting was monitored at the cliff sites, consistent with prior research. Overall population fluctuations were minimal, varying between 21 individuals in 2020–2021, 17 individuals in 2018–2019, and 16 individuals in 2019–2020. There was an apparent impact of forest fires and other human disturbance activities, and certain proactive conservation measures are proposed to help address these. There was indirect evidence of other threats including poison baits targeting wild carnivores and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) being widely available for use in domestic livestock. The study endorses the approach of establishing vulture-safe zones, which focus on addressing the local threats. This includes raising awareness about wildfire management, controlling toxic NSAIDs availability that are harmful to vultures, discouraging the illegal use of poison-baits, and highlighting the necessity of monitoring threats posed by power infrastructure. Due to the high mobility of LBVs, all these threats need addressing through large-scale vulture safe zone work (up to 100 km radius) surrounding the breeding colonies to secure the LBV’s long-term survival. These conservation actions are urgently needed.

Short‐term effects of Storm Daniel on Salmo farioides (Karaman, 1938) in a high‐gradient stream

AbstractClimate change is expected to increase the magnitude, frequency, and intensity of extreme natural phenomena such as droughts and floods. These events can have devastating impacts on aquatic biota, thus there is a dire need to assess species' natural dynamics and to incorporate them into species' conservation actions and flood management decisions. In September 2023, an extreme meteorological event (Storm Daniel) occurred over the eastern Mediterranean, causing unprecedented high flooding events in many streams and rivers of central Greece. Almost 2 months after the event, we investigated the effects of the storm on Salmo farioides in a high‐altitude stream (Kraniotiko stream, Acheloos river basin) by comparing pre‐flood (June and August 2023) with post‐flood (October 2023) data on fish population abundances and size structure. Our results provide direct evidence that the population of S. farioides was almost wipedout from the investigated stream, as post‐flood fish densities were 9.3% of the pre‐flood data (August) densities. Small‐sized individuals (6–10 cm) were extirpated, indicating a 99% decrease during the post‐flood period, totally reversing the increasing trend observed from June to August (pre‐flood period). In conclusion, the profound and rapid decline observed in the population of S. farioides following the extreme flooding event highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation measures and adaptive management strategies to safeguard vulnerable aquatic species in the face of escalating climate‐related challenges.

Faunal Diversity and the Ecological Aspects of a Community-Based Fragmented Lowland Rainforest Patch in Western Province, Sri Lanka

Wawekale Rainforest Reserve (WRR) is a primary lowland tropical rainforest area in the Western Province of Sri Lanka, established with diversity, but disturbed by human activities such as rubber cultivation, logging, poaching, chemical release, and the collection of firewood. Visual Encounter Surveys (VES) were conducted for 100 hours in the year 2022, which covered wide habitat distribution. The herpetofaunal diversity was measured in the WRR which can indicate broader ecological shifts, environmental changes, or habitat degradation. Water quality was measured in the WRR area to determine the ecosystem health and human impact. The study reports 171 species in 73 families, including two Critically Endangered (1.17%), six Endangered (3.51%), 16 Vulnerable (9.36%), and 14 Near Threatened (8.19%) species according to the IUCN Red List. The study area showed 51 endemic faunal species in Sri Lanka, which represented 29.83% of endemism. Based on the observations conducted on the herpetofauna diversity, the Shannon-Wiener diversity index (H) was calculated and the overall herpetofauna (H’H) showed high diversity within the forest premises. The water quality of the forest fragment had an influence from anthropogenic activities such as removing forest cover, bathing, washing vehicles, and releasing agro-chemical compounds resulting in high water temperature, basic pH level, high electrical conductivity, and high total dissolved solid conditions. The WRR, designated under protection, exhibits the need for immediate remedial actions to mitigate human-induced pollution and deforestation, emphasizing the critical importance of implementing proactive conservation measures to sustain ecological integrity and preserve biodiversity.

The geno-geo-climate nexus: contributions of geographic and ecological factors in shaping the genomic divergence of two closely related threatened rainforest species of Fontainea Heckel (Euphorbiaceae)

ContextProcesses that shape genomic and ecological divergence can reveal important evolutionary dynamics to inform the conservation of threatened species. Fontainea is a genus of rainforest shrubs and small trees including critically endangered and threatened species restricted to narrow, but complex geographic and ecological regions. Several species of Fontainea are subject to spatially explicit conditions and experience limited intra-specific gene flow, likely generating genetic differentiation and local adaptation.ObjectivesHere, we explored the genetic and ecological mechanisms underlying patterns of diversification in two, closely related threatened Fontainea species. Our aim was to compare spatial patterns of genetic variation between the vulnerable Fontainea australis (Southern Fontainea) and critically endangered F. oraria (Coastal Fontainea), endemic to the heterogeneous subtropical region of central, eastern Australia, where large-scale clearing has severely reduced rainforest habitat to a fraction (< 1%) of its pre-European settlement extent.MethodsWe used a set of 10,000 reduced-representation markers to infer genetic relationships and the drivers of spatial genetic variation across the two species. In addition, we employed a combination of univariate and multivariate genome-environment association analysis using a set of topo-climatic variables to explore potential patterns of local adaptation as a factor impacting genomic divergence.ResultsOur study revealed that Coastal Fontainea have a close genetic relationship with Southern Fontainea. We showed that isolation by distance has played a key role in their genetic variation, indicating that vicariance can explain the spatial genetic distribution of the two species. Genotype-environment analyses showed a strong association with temperature and topographic features, suggesting adaptation to localised thermal environments. We used a multivariate redundancy analysis to identify a range of putatively adapted loci associated with local environmental conditions.ConclusionsDivergent selection at the local-habitat scale as a result of dispersal limitations and environmental heterogeneity (including physical barriers) are likely contributors to adaptive divergence between the two Fontainea species. Our findings have presented evidence to indicate that Southern and Coastal Fontainea were comprised of distinct genetic groups and ecotypes, that together may form a single species continuum, with further phenotype research suggested to confirm the current species boundaries. Proactive conservation actions, including assisted migration to enhance the resilience of populations lacking stress-tolerant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) may be required to secure the long-term future of both taxa. This is especially vital for the critically endangered Coastal Fontainea given projections of habitat decline for the species under future climate scenarios.

Integrating spatial stream network models and environmentalDNAto estimate current and future distributions of nonnative Smallmouth Bass

AbstractObjectiveClimate change is fueling the rapid range expansion of invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. This has led to mounting calls from natural resource managers for more robust predictions of invasive species distributions to anticipate threats to species of concern and implement proactive conservation and restoration actions. Here, we applied recent advances in fish sampling and statistical modeling in river networks to estimate the current and future watershed‐scale spatial distribution of nonnative Smallmouth BassMicropterus dolomieu.MethodsWe integrated a spatial stream network (SSN) model of stream temperature, landscape environmental covariates, and Smallmouth Bass occurrence data based on environmental DNA (eDNA) detections to develop an SSN species distribution model (SDM) representing current Smallmouth Bass distributions in the Chehalis River, Washington State, a large coastal river basin of ongoing watershed‐scale restoration. The SDM was informed by spatially intensive eDNA sampling from 135 locations in the main stem and major tributaries. We then applied downscaled climate change projections to the SSN SDM to predict Smallmouth Bass range expansion in the basin by late century.ResultWe identified high levels of spatial autocorrelation at hydrological distances of ≤10 km in our eDNA data set, underscoring the importance of applying an SSN modeling framework. Stream temperature was identified as the most important environmental covariate explaining variability in Smallmouth Bass occurrence. Model predictions estimated that current suitable summer habitat for Smallmouth Bass habitat spans 681 km and is projected to nearly double by late century (1333 km) under a moderate climate change scenario. Current and future suitable habitat for Smallmouth Bass is prevalent in important tributaries for spring Chinook SalmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha, a species of major conservation concern in the Chehalis River and more broadly along the Pacific coast. In both the main stem and tributaries, the SSN SDM predictions of the upstream leading edges of Smallmouth Bass closely align with (within 4.8 km) edges identified by spatially intensive eDNA sampling.ConclusionOur study highlights the value of integrating SSN models with rapidly growing eDNA data sets for accurate and precise riverine fish distribution estimation. Our application provides crucial insights for anticipating the impacts of shifting invasive species on Pacific salmon Oncorhynchusspp. in a warming world.