Procyclical Fiscal Policy Research Articles

Information content and consensus effect of fiscal plans

This paper investigated the extent to which fiscal plans provide novel information to investors and induce consensus over governments’ fiscal forecasts. Based on the mandatory disclosure requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact, we documented that fiscal plans are generally informative, but investors interpret their content differently. We further showed that, while fiscal plans that foresee spending cuts during downturns have substantial information content, they cause opinion divergence. Although these findings are consistent with recent evidence on the contractionary and uncertain effects of procyclical fiscal policy during recessions, they cast doubt on governments’ ability to anchor fiscal expectations in these periods.

Imperfect financial markets and the cyclicality of social spending

This paper explores the link between default risk and fiscal procyclicality. We show that countries with higher sovereign risk have a more procyclical fiscal expenditure policy, which is driven mostly by transfers. We build a small open economy model with income inequality, social transfers, and default risk to rationalize this fact. Without default risk transfers are countercyclical, inequality is procyclical, and external debt is used to smooth distortionary taxation. With default risk, transfers account for most of fiscal adjustment because taxation becomes costly for the government. Transfers become procyclical and inequality worsens during times when risk premia are high. We confirm the predictions of the model in the data: in recessions in economies with default risk, transfers take the bigger burden relative to government consumption, whereas the opposite is true in economies with low default risk.

Political Drivers of State Fiscal Cyclicality

This study examines political factors influencing US state fiscal policy cyclicality. US states largely pursue procyclical fiscal policy, despite the federal government operating countercyclically. Institutional factors, such as balanced-budget rules, have been examined as influences on state cyclicality, with little prior focus on political factors. This article examines the impacts of electoral competitiveness, political polarization, and legislative turnover on state cyclicality. The combination of polarization and turnover is associated with procyclical policy, while the effect of competition on cyclicality is conditional on year from election. Both effects vary during economic upturns compared to downturns. State institutional design implications are considered.

Fiscal regimes and debt sustainability in Colombia

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates Colombia’s debt sustainability for the period 1980–2021, using a nonlinear fiscal reaction function approach. We employ a Markov-Switching model with annual data to identify sustainable and unsustainable fiscal regimes. According to this model, we identified an unsustainable fiscal regime during three periods with an average duration of six years − 1980–1985, 1993–1999, and 2015–2021 – while the other periods are identified as a sustainable regime. Although we find evidence of asymmetric behaviour in fiscal responses and the presence of pro-cyclical fiscal policy, Colombia’s long-term fiscal sustainability is verified based on a globally-based fiscal sustainability test. In this context, the government reacts appropriately to increases in debt only in the sustainable regime, but the fiscal response is sufficiently robust to stabilise public debt throughout the entire period. Finally, we also highlight concerns regarding the current state of the global economy, particularly due to an inflationary trend and escalating interest rates, which can compromise long-term fiscal sustainability.

Dynamic panel analysis of the EU's fiscal reaction function with threshold effects

AbstractThis study contributes to the ongoing reform of the EU's economic governance, particularly about fiscal performance. We opt for a fiscal reaction function of the cyclically adjusted primary balance. Given concerns over underlying endogeneity and heterogeneity across countries we employ a threshold dynamic analysis. The findings confirm that the fiscal policy in the EU has been procyclical overall. However, we identify two regimes of output gap. Fiscal policy has been countercyclical for EU member states in the higher output gap regime while EU member states follow a procyclical fiscal policy in the lower regime. We reveal also that the endogenous debt‐to‐GDP ratio threshold is at 75.6% for the EU and 78.7% for the Euro area, which notably exceeds the EU Treaty's reference value of 60%. Fiscal rules and fiscal councils mitigate procyclical fiscal policies, being more effective for low debt countries. In terms of policy implications, the identified fiscal thresholds and variability across countries warrant a higher degree of fiscal coordination in the EU, particularly in the Euro area.

Procyclicality of fiscal policy in oil-rich countries: Roles of resource funds and institutional quality

Fiscal policy management in natural resource-rich countries, particularly the ones struggling with inadequate institutional quality, faces significant challenges because of the dependence of government expenditures on highly volatile revenues of their natural resources. To resolve this issue, most of them have set up natural resource funds; however, the effectiveness of these funds is under debate. Large government expenditures financed by transfers from these funds are not highly likely sustainable and may entail long-term severe economic risks. That brings the necessity of detailed analyses of resource-rich countries' fiscal policy management by integrating the effects of the natural resource funds. This study puts a step forward in this direction; it takes 32 oil-rich countries for the period 1984–2015. Then it analyzes their fiscal policies regarding their government expenditures by unravelling the effects of the presence of the natural resource funds and the adequacy levels of their institutional qualities, categorized with the clustering algorithms. It uses dynamic panel data analysis and elaborates on the proper estimation techniques by considering cross-sectional dependence among data of these countries, heterogeneity of slope coefficients and endogeneity issues. The study reveals that even after controlling the effects of the volatility of the oil price changes and the share of oil rents in total income, resource-rich countries' fiscal policy goes with the flow. In favourable economic conditions, government expenditures are soaring, but when economic downturns happen, their growth levels also turn down. That means high fiscal procyclicality even in the presence of natural resource funds. As expected, the presence of these funds is not sufficient. For the desired countercyclical policy, adequately high enough institutional quality is needed to manage those funds and fiscal policy effectively.

Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Reduce Fiscal Policy Pro-cyclicality? New Evidence Using a Non-Parametric Approach

Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Reduce Fiscal Policy Pro-cyclicality? New Evidence Using a Non-Parametric Approach

Fiscal policy under constraints: Fiscal capacity and austerity during the Great Depression

AbstractThe Great Depression was characterized by widespread fiscal policy mistakes in the form of a contractionary or insufficiently expansionary fiscal stance. Despite this general conclusion, there were large differences in the conduct of fiscal policy between countries. I find that a higher degree of fiscal capacity helped countries run less procyclical fiscal policies by allowing them to borrow more extensively. Lower borrowing costs only partially explain this finding. Taken together, the results indicate that interwar governments were constrained in their policies by past investments in fiscal capacity, and not just by Gold Standard membership, ideology, and inadequate knowledge, as commonly held in the literature.

THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOUR OF FISCAL POLICY: ARE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIFFERENT, AND DO INSTITUTIONS MATTER?

The available empirical evidence shows that fiscal authorities commonly revert to procyclical fiscal policies instead of following the normative prescription of budgetary countercyclicality. The available empirical studies suggest that this phenomenon may be attributed to weak fiscal institutions. Hence, it is often advocated that strengthening institutions in the developing countries is a reliable way to improve the cyclical properties of fiscal policy. In this paper, we challenge this view by showing that the impact of institutions on the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy is not uniform across all countries and differs significantly between advanced economies and the developing ones. In the latter, the impact of institutions on the quality of fiscal policy proves to be weak, which is in stark contrast to the strong relationship observed in developed economies. This surprising result suggests that the focus on improving institutional quality may be of little help as a tool to increase the countercyclicality of fiscal policy in the developing economies.

What Makes Discretionary Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy so Difficult? An Analysis of 32 OECD Countries

Abstract We examine the stance of fiscal policy for 32 OECD countries from 1986 to 2023 by comparing for each country-year observation the signs of the output gap and the change in the cyclically adjusted budget balance. We find that fiscal policies are often pro-cyclical. We test possible explanations using comparative statistics for country-year observations with pro- and counter-cyclical policies. Our evidence suggests that fiscal rules and institutional quality are not related to the prevalence of pro-cyclicality. Likewise, several political-economy arguments suggested for explaining pro-cyclical fiscal policies do not receive strong support. However, poor access to finance makes fiscal policies more pro-cyclical. (JEL codes: E62, H50, and H62)

Linkage Between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-Nationals: A Second-Generation Panel Cointegration Techniques

This article examined whether the Wagner’s law that represents the long-run relationship between income and public expenditure holds at the subnational level in India. It also examines whether the Wagner's law is revenue expenditure specific or capital expenditure specific in the context of Indian sub-nationals. The paper covers 21 Indian States and a time period of 40 years, from 1980-81 to 2019-20. In this study we have assessed six pairs of relationships among state-level income, public expenditures, revenue expenditure, capital outlay, public expenditure on economic services, public expenditure on social services, and expenditure on the developmental sector. The validity of the law was examined for nine different panels of states broadly under income categories and geographical regions. Unlike first-generation panel techniques, which fail to account for the aspects of cross-sectional independence and heterogeneity, the present study tests the validity of the Wagner’s law using the second-generation panel unit root method and cointegration approach. The analysis adopted Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square to test the evidence of Wagner’s law hypothesis. The findings reveal that Indian states are heterogeneous in terms of public expenditure, and there exists cross-sectional dependence. There also exists a long-run cointegrating relation between state-level income and state-level public expenditure. For the full sample, while this study finds holding Wagner’s law, there is a mixed validity of the law in different panels across income categories and regions. In addition, it is observed that the validity of Wagner’s law in the Indian Subnational context is mainly driven by the high-income major states, and it is more capital outlay centric. To conclude, these responsive affiliations comprehend the effectiveness of public expenditure as a fiscal policy instrument in stimulating economic growth and the contribution of economic growth in the budget exercise at the subnational level. Therefore, subnational governments need to be more strategic to ensure growth momentum as the public expenditure indirectly and directly causes the living standard and welfare of the people in the economy. It must be acknowledged that India adopted fiscal rules in 2005, which may limit the procyclical fiscal policy during the swings in the business cycle, and thus have implications for budget exercises at the sub-national level.

Sub‐Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?

AbstractThe study investigated public debt sustainability in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) by testing the reaction of the primary balance to positive and negative shocks in public debts in a panel of 45 SSA countries. The study adopts the innovative nonlinear fiscal reaction function and the dynamic panel threshold model to account for the potential asymmetric phenomenon in the public debt series. In line with extant studies, the study found that public debts in SSA are weakly sustainable and there is a highly procyclical fiscal policy bias in SSA countries, particularly in resource‐rich countries, indicating that governments' fiscal policy responses are expansionary during economic upturns and contractionary during recessions, which may aggravate recessions and worsen debt situations across SSA. For robustness, the study compares the results with emerging and developed economies. The results indicate that in advanced economies, public debt is sustainable and that fiscal policy response is countercyclical. The research and policy implications are discussed.

Do fiscal councils reduce fiscal policy procyclicality?

ABSTRACT Using a panel of 35 advanced economies over the period 1990–2020, we investigate the effect of fiscal councils and their individual characteristics on fiscal policy. We find that the response of fiscal policy was procyclical; however, fiscal councils with enhanced remit, strong independence and accountability, and sufficient resources can mitigate procyclicality. A series of robustness checks revealed that the ability of fiscal councils to mitigate fiscal policy procyclicality is particularly relevant in the EU and euro area countries, in countries with weak governance and in particular in the period after the Global Financial Crisis. The results are robust when accounting for the likely endogeneity between fiscal councils and fiscal procyclicality.

The Credibility of Monetary Policy and Procyclical Fiscal Policy

If indiscipline fiscal policy could affect the monetary policy’s objective and effectiveness, is it necessarily mean that the status quo of monetary policy credibility would also be impacted? This paper addresses the issue by constructing a simple theoretical model and conducting empirical investigations using a dataset from 25 selected Inflation Targeting Framework countries throughout 2003-2017. By employing the Generalized Method of Moments, we find that the monetary policy will remain the status quo credible as the central bank would optimally respond to the disturbances originated from procyclical fiscal policy. However, such a response potentially crowds out domestic investment and slows down the economy, and induces financial instability. This implies that bearing the eye only on the status quo credibility of monetary policy is not sufficient, and the consideration over the fiscal policy behavior becomes crucial.

Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Rich Countries: Roles of Resource Funds and Institutional Quality

Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Rich Countries: Roles of Resource Funds and Institutional Quality

Limiting fiscal procyclicality: Evidence from resource-dependent countries

We provide evidence that fiscal policy in resource-dependent countries is procyclical. The empirical analysis reveals that on average real government consumption in these countries tends to significantly rise (fall) in good (bad) times. To control for endogeneity we use an instrumental variable for GDP growth that arises naturally, namely the growth in commodity prices of the main natural resource export. We also find that fiscal policy procyclicality is lower in more democratic regimes, and in countries with stronger checks and balances on the executive. Operating a sovereign wealth fund can help limit fiscal policy procyclicality in some instances, while we find no such evidence for fiscal rules.

The European Union fiscal policy framework and fiscal sustainability: challenges for the post-crisis environment

The fiscal policy framework in the European Union was originally agreed upon in the Maastricht Treaty 30 years ago. In the following years it has been supplemented (Stability and Growth Pact) and modified, influenced by the experience of its application practice and external shocks, such as the financial crisis. However, the essence of this framework remained the same - member states are obliged to conduct a disciplined fiscal policy, which, in a nutshell, is assessed by comparing the ratio of budget deficit and public debt to GDP in a given country to the reference values. Even before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the need to change the mechanisms for disciplining fiscal policy was widely recognized. High and persistent levels of public debt, pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy, shortage of public investment and the complexity of fiscal rules and their weak enforceability are indicated as unfavorable features of public finance. In 2019 the COVID-19 pandemic came as the biggest shock to the world community since World War II. In the context of the provisions on fiscal discipline, in May 2020 the Commission and the Council activated the general escape clause of Stability and Growth Pact, for the first time ever. This has allowed member states to take the necessary fiscal measures to deal with the crisis. On 19 October 2021, the European Commission adopted a Communication relaunching the public consultation, put on hold in March 2020, on the EU?s economic governance framework. The new governance framework should be tailored to the challenges the EU is facing, including the challenge of achieving a fiscal stance that is appropriate for the euro area as a whole. There is a fairly widespread belief in the need to move away from rigid reference values, which should be replaced by solutions that ensure the sustainability of public debt in the differing circumstances of member states. The proposed options for the revision of the EU fiscal framework, although justified in theory, have a fundamental flaw - they strengthen the position of supranational institutions and, moreover, open the door to discretion and potentially unequal treatment of member states. These proposals can be seen in a broader context - the federalization of the EU, which would limit the sovereignty of nation states.

Democracy, institutional quality and fiscal policy cycle: evidence from developing countries

ABSTRACT Economists usually prescribe countercyclical fiscal policies to stabilize economies: government spending should increase during economic downturns and decrease during booms. Yet, empirical research has documented procyclical fiscal policy in several democratic developing countries. Using an updated dataset of 63 developing countries from 1980 to 2013, this article robustly shows procyclical fiscal policy in democratic and non-democratic developing countries. The essence of this paper is controlling endogeneity issues by using the generalized method of moment (GMM) for the dynamic panel data model and investigating the interaction between democracy and the quality of democratic institutions in affecting the fiscal policy cycle. This article finds that an improvement in the quality of institutions plays a vital role in restraining procyclical fiscal policy and these effects are more prominent in democratic countries than non-democratic ones.

The government spending multiplier in Latin American countries: does the institutional environment matter?

PurposeMora and Acevedo (2019) report that the government spending multipliers in Latin American countries are notably higher than what is typically reported for developed economies. Latin American countries have been inclined toward using procyclical fiscal policies. Those policies have been perceived as being effective at mitigating the effects of the 2008–2009 Great Recession. This study aims to estimate the government spending multiplier using Latin American panel data from 19 Latin American countries from 2000 to 2018. The estimates are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom. Based on the results, the latter is important: the less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP.Design/methodology/approachThe authors provide regression results that are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom.FindingsThe less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is first study to estimate the fiscal multiplier conditional on economic freedom levels. The authors provide correctly calculated multipliers conditional on different levels of economic freedom. The authors point the way to future studies considering the effectiveness of fiscal policy conditional on institutional/policy quality.

Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines

AbstractUtilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times.