Prison Admission Rates Research Articles

Lifetime risk of imprisonment in the United States remains high and starkly unequal.

How likely are U.S. males and females of different ethnoracial groups to be imprisoned over the course of their lives, and how have these risks changed in recent decades? Using survey and administrative data, we update 20th-century estimates of the cumulative risk of imprisonment for the 21st century. In 2016, non-Hispanic Black males' lifetime risk of imprisonment remained very high-more than 16%-but decreased substantially relative to extreme levels of risk in the 1990s and early 2000s. The lifetime risk of imprisonment among people identifying as American Indian or Alaska Native was nearly 50% for males and more than 14% for females. Although national prison admission rates are declining, imprisonment remains a pervasive and highly unequal life-course experience.

Gender equality and the shifting gap in female‐to‐male prison admission rates*

AbstractAlthough women have made dramatic gains toward equality with men over the past century, this progress has occurred alongside tremendous growth in U.S. incarceration rates. Extending prior research on sex differences in offending, we turn our attention to punishment by exploring how gender equality in education, work, and politics is associated with disparities in annual prison admissions. Using pooled cross‐sectional data for U.S. states from 1983 to 2010, we conduct a series of fixed‐effects regressions to estimate the ratio of female‐to‐male annual prison admission rates, as well as sex‐specific rates, disaggregated by violent, property, and drug crimes. We find partial support for the ameliorative hypothesis, which predicts that increasing gender equality will decrease female incarceration rates relative to male rates. For one of our three measures of gender equality—the sex gap in educational attainment—we find that greater equality is associated with a widening of the sex gap in incarceration rates, particularly for property offenses. We explore the implications of these findings in relation to existing theories of gender, crime, and punishment.

Understanding the place of punishment: Disadvantage, politics, and the geography of imprisonment in 21st century America

AbstractStudies suggest that the spatial distribution of punishment in the United States is shifting. This article analyzes variation in prison admissions across U.S. counties to deepen our understanding of the contemporary geography of punishment. While research on punishment generally treats economic and political theories of punishment as distinct, we draw on recent studies of penal attitudes to develop a theoretical argument regarding their possible interconnection. We then use Hierarchical Linear Modeling to test the hypothesis that conservatism, race, and disadvantage are associated with the use of prison and that these factors help to explain why prison admission rates are higher in rural and suburban counties than in urban ones, despite notably higher crime rates in the latter. The results indicate that nonurban counties send more people to prison than urban counties and that socioeconomic disadvantage, the size of the Black population, and conservatism are significant predictors of prison admissions after controlling for crime‐related problems. These findings suggest that poverty, race, and politics work in concert to shape the distribution of punishment across 21st century America.

Neighborhood Prison Admission Rates and the Sunbelt: Variation in Imprisonment, Concentrated Disadvantage, and Their Relationship Across the United States

Regional differences in the use of prison are, in part, due to cultures of punishment within Sunbelt states. To date, this has been largely studied at the state level, ignoring the smaller geographic areas in which the effects of imprisonment are deeply felt. We employ a novel data set to examine the relationship between prison and region and regional variation in the relationship between concentrated disadvantage and neighborhood imprisonment. We find that region affects neighborhood prison admission rates in unexpected ways, and that the relationship between concentrated disadvantage and prison admissions varies in magnitude by region. We discuss the implications of these findings for better understanding the impact of region and the processes that lead to imprisonment.

Casualties of context? Risk of cognitive, behavioral and physical health difficulties among children living in high-incarceration neighborhoods

We examined if residence in high-incarceration neighborhoods is associated with risk of cognitive, behavioral and physical health problems for young children net of individual-level parental incarceration status. We used regression analysis and linked data from Year 9 of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study and zip code level information on neighborhood prison admission rates from Justice Atlas of Sentencing and Corrections in 2008. Neighborhood incarceration rates appear to have some independent and negative associations with child cognitive outcomes. For behavioral outcomes, individual-level parental incarceration appears to be the most meaningful. For child physical health outcomes as indicated by BMI percentages and overall good health, neither neighborhood incarceration rates nor individual-level parental incarceration experiences show persistent significant associations. Living in a neighborhood with high incarceration may threaten children’s health and wellbeing, suggesting that mass incarceration feeds into a system of inequality that extends beyond those who experience individual-level parental incarceration by exerting a broader public health impact.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Prison Admissions Across Counties: An Evaluation of Racial/Ethnic Threat, Socioeconomic Inequality, and Political Climate Explanations

Previous macro-level studies of racial and ethnic disparities in prison admissions have focused narrowly on differences in offending and have limited their analyses to national- and state-level data. This study explores three alternative explanations for inequality in prison admissions for Blacks and Latinos compared to Whites: racial/ethnic threat, socioeconomic inequality, and the political and legal climate. I analyze data from multiple county- and state-level sources and employ hierarchical linear modeling techniques to examine the role of both county- and state-level factors in producing inequality in county-level prison admission rates. Findings indicate that Black–White disparities are lower in jurisdictions with greater shares of Black citizens; however, the reverse is true for Latino–White inequality. For both comparisons, political conservatism is associated with less inequality. Results also indicate that counties with greater parity in income and employment across race/ethnicity and that are located in the South have reduced racial/ethnic disparities in prison admissions. I argue that the presence of large shares of African Americans and of Republican voters, in addition to southern location, are likely better indicators of total prison admission rates than of racial/ethnic disparities in prison admissions.

Place and Punishment: The Spatial Context of Mass Incarceration

Research on race and urban poverty views incarceration as a new and important aspect of social disadvantage in inner-city neighborhoods. However, in quantitative studies of the spatial distribution of imprisonment across neighborhoods, the pattern outside urban areas has not been examined. This paper offers a unique analysis of disaggregated prison admissions and investigates the spatial concentrations and levels of admissions for the entire state of Massachusetts. Spatial regressions estimate census tract-level prison admission rates in relation to racial demographics, social and economic disadvantage, arrest rates, and violent crime; an analysis of outlier neighborhoods examines the surprisingly high admission rates in small cities. Regression analysis yields three findings. First, incarceration is highly spatially concentrated: census tracts covering 15% of the state’s population account for half of all prison admissions. Second, across urban and non-urban areas, incarceration is strongly related to concentrated disadvantage and the share of the black population, even after controlling for arrest and crime rates. Third, the analysis shows admission rates in small urban satellite cities and suburbs comprise the highest rates in the sample and far exceed model predictions. Mass incarceration emerged not just to manage distinctively urban social problems but was characteristic of a broader mode of governance evident in communities often far-removed from deep inner-city poverty. These notably high levels and concentrations in small cities should be accounted for when developing theories of concentrated disadvantage or policies designed to ameliorate the impacts of mass incarceration on communities.

Politics in Punishment: the Effect of the State Attorney Election Cycle on Conviction and Sentencing Outcomes in Florida

While a considerable amount of research recognizes a link between politics and criminal justice administration and policy, minimal literature is concerned with the impact of election cycles on punishment outcomes. Recent studies find incarceration is used as a tool for gaining political power. Therefore, the election period, especially when the incumbent faces opposition, could have a substantial effect on sentencing outcomes. Previous research has examined this phenomenon on a national and state level, but has rarely considered local political influences on elections. In this study, we examine the effect of local state attorney elections on punitiveness in punishment decisions, specifically through filing rates, conviction rates, prison admission rates, and average prison sentence lengths. As it is well established that criminal justice sanctions disproportionately affect minorities, we also examine the potential amplification of this disparity during the election cycle. A fixed-effects panel design was used to assess the effect of the State Attorney election periods in Florida and the presence of an electoral opponent on conviction and sentencing outcomes from 1995 to 2010. The results lend partial support to the hypothesis that the election cycle affects criminal justice outcomes.

The influence of incarceration and Re-entry on the availability of health care organizations in Arkansas

BackgroundStudies show that ex-prisoners often experience more health problems than the general population; unfortunately, these issues follow them upon their release from prison. As such, it is possible re-entry rates signal the need for neighborhood-based health care organizations (HCOs). We ask: are incarceration and re-entry rates associated with the availability of HCOs?.MethodsMethodsUsing 2008 Central Business Pattern data, 2008 prison admissions and release data, and 2000 and 2010 census data, we test whether prison admission and release rates impact the availability of HCOs net of neighborhood characteristics in Arkansas using Logit-Poisson hurdle models with county fixed effects.ResultsWe find that the incarceration and re-entry rates – together known as coercive mobility -- are related to whether a neighborhood has one or more HCOs, but not to the number of HCOs in a neighborhood.ConclusionFuture public policies should aim to locate health care organizations in areas where there is significant churning of individuals in and out of prison.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40352-015-0016-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Collateral Damage of Mass Incarceration: Risk of Psychiatric Morbidity Among Nonincarcerated Residents of High-Incarceration Neighborhoods.

Objectives. We examined whether residence in neighborhoods with high levels of incarceration is associated with psychiatric morbidity among nonincarcerated community members. Methods. We linked zip code-linked information on neighborhood prison admissions rates to individual-level data on mental health from the Detroit Neighborhood Health Study (2008-2012), a prospective probability sample of predominantly Black individuals. Results. Controlling for individual- and neighborhood-level risk factors, individuals living in neighborhoods with high prison admission rates were more likely to meet criteria for a current (odds ratio [OR] = 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7, 5.5) and lifetime (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 1.4, 4.6) major depressive disorder across the 3 waves of follow-up as well as current (OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.0, 4.2) and lifetime (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.2, 4.5) generalized anxiety disorder than were individuals living in neighborhoods with low prison admission rates. These relationships between neighborhood-level incarceration and mental health were comparable for individuals with and without a personal history of incarceration. Conclusions. Incarceration may exert collateral damage on the mental health of individuals living in high-incarceration neighborhoods, suggesting that the public mental health impact of mass incarceration extends beyond those who are incarcerated.

A method for analyzing changing prison populations: explaining the growth of the elderly in prison.

For the past several decades, the U.S. prison system has witnessed a steady and persistent increase in the ages of prison populations. Given the additional costs and burdens placed on prisons as they house older inmates, this aging trend has generated intense interest among policy makers and academics who seek to understand why prison populations are getting older. This article presents a method for evaluating drivers influencing the change in age distributions among prisoners. We define a methodological approach and demonstrate its application using prison data from four states reporting to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Corrections Reporting Program. We find that since 2000, the primary driver of overall growth in the elderly populations in prison (defined as inmates over 50) is the increasing admission age of offenders entering prison. Moreover, changes in offense mix and sentence length/time served over the last decade have had significantly less influence on the age composition of prison populations. We also find that the impact of explanatory factors varies across states and offense types. For example, prison admission and exit rates explain much of the change in elderly drug offenders in New York, but not elderly violent offenders, where admission age plays a much stronger explanatory role. Our analysis offers an effective demonstration that supports the use of this method as an important and informative first step toward understanding components of change that affect the problem of prison aging.

Segregation and African-American imprisonment rates for drug offenses

Scholars argue that the dramatic increase in the African-American incarceration rate that occurred after the civil rights era was in part a reflection of the declining utility of residential segregation as a modern form of social control. Existing research has not thoroughly investigated the association between racial segregation and prison admission rates. Using 2002 data for 198 metropolitan counties, this research examines the relationship between two dimensions of racial residential segregation and African-American prison admission rates for drug offenses. The results from a multivariate regression analysis reveal that the prison admission rates of African-Americans for drug offenses are lower in counties where White residents are more residentially isolated from African-Americans. The admission rates are unaffected by the dissimilarity index. Consistent with recent research on the level of coercive control, the findings suggest that the effect of the percentage of African-Americans residing in an area is nonlinear.

RACIAL THREAT, PARTISAN POLITICS, AND RACIAL DISPARITIES IN PRISON ADMISSIONS: A PANEL ANALYSIS*

Why are racial disparities in imprisonment so pronounced? Studies of alternative outcomes in the criminal justice system find positive relationships between minority presence and punitive outcomes. Therefore, it is puzzling that the studies of racial incarceration ratios find negative relationships between this presence and such discrepancies. We use a pooled time‐series design to resolve this dilemma. Successful Republican attempts to link crime with public concerns about a dangerous racial underclass also suggest that where these racial appeals are successful, African Americans should face higher incarceration rates than whites. In contrast to prior research, our results are consistent with findings about other criminal justice outcomes. They show that an inverted, U‐shaped, nonlinear relationship is present between African‐American presence and racial disparities in imprisonments. Additional results indicate that the presence of African Americans in deep southern states and greater support for Republican presidential candidates together with increases in the most menacing crime (which often is blamed on African Americans) also help to explain these discrepant racial prison admission rates.

The Failure of Race Neutral Policies: How Mandatory Terms and Sentencing Enhancements Contribute to Mass Racialized Incarceration

This study examines the effects of mandatory terms and sentencing enhancements on Black and White men’s state-level prison admission rates. Four major findings emerge from the analysis. First, both mandatory terms and sentencing enhancements increase prison admission rates for Black and White men. Second, these policies disproportionately increase Black men’s admissions. Third, the effects of these policies—on both scale and disparity—are strongest and most consistent on admissions for violent offenses. Finally, although sentencing enhancements increase admission rates more consistently than mandatory terms, mandatory terms have larger effects on admission rates for the categories—for example, violent admissions for Black men—where they do increase admission rates. The findings are consistent with theories of modern racism, which argue that, in the post-civil rights era, racial disparities are primarily produced and maintained by colorblind policies and practices.

Equality at the Price of Justice

In the last quarter of the twentieth century, prison admission rates rose precipitously, racial disparities remained high, and the proportion of prisoners who are women increased dramatically. While several scholars argue that changes in sentencing policies are responsible, there have been few empirical examinations of this presumed connection. This study examines whether or not mandatory terms and sentencing enhancements are associated with increases in state level admission rates, whether these increases—if they exist—are larger among women than among men, whether and how these gender disparities vary by race, and whether the effect of these sentencing policies on either scale or disparities varies by offense type. The study has four major findings. First, mandatory terms and sentencing enhancements increase prison admission rates for violent, property, and drug crimes. Second, these policies disproportionately burden women. Third, the gender disparate impacts of these policies are most consistent among blacks. Finally, the effects of these policies are most consistently associated with increases in violent admissions, but associated with the most substantial increases in drug admissions. These findings corroborate the theoretical perspective offered and suggest that policies that require people to be “similarly situated” in order to be deserving of “equal treatment” are incapable of producing justice.

Did Falling Wages and Employment Increase U.S. Imprisonment?

This paper studies the effects of wages and employment on men's prison admission rates in the United States from 1983 to 2001. Research on the effects of the labor market on incarceration usually examines national- or state-level data, but our analysis studies prison admission among black and white men in specific age-education groups. We find a significant increase in educational inequality in incarceration; nearly all the growth in the risk of imprisonment was confined to non-college men. Regression analysis of prison admission rates shows the negative effects of wages and employment on black men's incarceration, and the negative effects of wages on white men's imprisonment. If 1980s' wage and employment levels had persisted through the late 1990s, the estimates suggest that prison admission rates would be 15 to 25 percent lower for all non-college men.

Controlling prison population size

The number of people in prison is rising in many countries. In absolute terms, the United States is the extreme case: the incarceration rate per 100,000 population for persons confined in federal and state prisons grew by 333 per cent from 93 in 1972 to 403 on Iune 30, 1995. Those numbers omit local jail populations which raise the 1995 rate to approximately 654 per 100,000. In relative terms, however, since the late 1980s prison population growth in many countries has approximated that in the United States. In the Netherlands, where the total incarceration rate for sentenced and non-sentenced prisoners increased from less than 30 per 100,000 population in 1983 to more than 60 per 100,000 in 1995, prison cell capacity tripled from 3,789 in 1980 to 10,059 in 1994 (Tak, 1994). In England and Wales, the total prison population grew by 25 per cent from early 1993 to 1996, even though the Crirninal]usticeAct 1991 was expected to reduce the use of imprisonment (Bean, 1991; Ashworth, 1995}. In Italy and Portugal, likewise, total incarceration rates increased almost by half from 1991 to 1993 (Kuhn, 1996a, figures 3, 7). In France, the total incarceration rate grew by fifty per cent between 1983 and 1995 (Kuhn, 1996a, figure 4). There is no value-free or scientific way to determine optimal levels of prison use in any country. Imprisonment patterns change over time in individual countries and vary widely between countries. No single or several factors, including changes in crime or conviction rates, in the age composition of the population, or in economic trends or employment rates, explain differences over time or across national boundaries. Nor is it obvious how to compare the 'punitiveness' of countries' punishment policies. Claims about comparative punitiveness are often made on the basis of rankings of incarceration rates per I00,000 population. It has long been observed that other measures might be used perhaps prison admissions per year per 100,000 (Kommer, 1994) that would substantially change various countries' rankings. Sweden, for example, which ranks low in incarceration rate scales, ranks high in prison admission rates. Similarly, rankings might be

Toward a Political Model of Incarceration: A Time-Series Examination of Multiple Explanations for Prison Admission Rates

This study examines yearly shifts in prison admissions since 1950. The effects of political and economic determinants are investigated with measures of economic inequality, political variables, and unemployment. The delayed effects of broken families are measured with a lagged moving average of out-of-wedlock births. The findings show that inequality due to the presence of the rich and past out-of-wedlock birth rates matter, but unemployment is not related to prison admissions. The strength of the Republican Party and a presidential election year dummy also explain shifts in incarcerations. The results suggest that earlier work omitted theoretically important explanations.

Incarceration rates and demographic changes: A test of the demographic change hypothesis

The increase in the incarceration rate in Louisiana was examined as a function of changes in the demographic distribution in the state. Increases in crime-prone groups in the population were not found to be associated with increased prison admission rates. Admission rates for the demographically disaggregated groups changed over time, and the pattern of changes varied depending upon the group examined. There was a relatively small growth in the prison population from 1975 to 1980, and over eighty-five percent of the growth could be explained by demographic changes. In contrast, from 1980 to 1983 there was substantial growth in the prison population, yet only 6.7 percent of the growth could be attributed to demographic shifts. Possible reasons for the pattern of changes found for the different age, race, and sex groups and for the large admission rate increases in the early 1980s are discussed.

U.S. Social Structure and Imprisonment

ABSTRACT* * *An article by Joubert, Picon and McIntosh (1981) is found to contain several serious methodological flaws. A second analysis using a similar data set suggests that these methodological problems may have caused them to draw erroneous conclusions regarding the effects of social structural variables on prison admission and release rates.